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Friday, May 13, 2011

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2 members of the vaunted starting rotation, Oswalt and Blanton, will some serious injury concerns going ahead forward.

The lesson is you can never have enough starting pitching & glad they have the likes of Worley & KK to step in if needed.

I definitely agree with this- they are weathering the storm and then some without these guys. Worley might eventually turn into a pumpkin, but I see no problem in letting him fill out the rotation until teams start seeing him a second time.

For Lidge and Contreras, I don't think anyone had any illusions that these guys were coming back before June (or July in Lidge's case). As for Utley, he's going to keep playing, and if he's able to play in the majors in a couple weeks, than he should be up here. Otherwise, you're just wasting his talents in rehab. I still think he's a little bit off. He needs to play about 4 straight games, 9 innings a pop, to ensure that knee can hold up to the daily grind of playing in the bigs.

The Phillies close so well, as in, they have a track record for finishing strong. That's gotta be in the mind of someone like Utley and the front office. They've taken great care with his injury.

Comparatively speaking, the Blanton and Oswalt injuries seem to be handled so haphazardly. In Blanton's case, it only made sense with because of the timing of other injuries. Really, he should still be on the DL.

Fat - Why rush Utley back? I don't want him playing 4 games straight either especially right away. That's foolish. I would much rather have Utley play only 4-5 week with an off day or two if that increases his likelihood of staying on the roster all year.

You see no problem letting them fill in Iceman? Good, I'll let Charlie know that he can do that. And Fatalotti, I'll get with Chase to get him on that schedule. Tards.

Oswalt = not 100%. Give his starts to VW until he's better.

See how easy it is to be a MLB GM?

MG, I don't want them to rush him back. My point was, if he's ready to play, in that he can play every day again, is hitting well and defending well, I don't want him to stay in rehab just for the sake of keeping him down there because we're going okay up here. If he's good to go, he's good to go. It's probably pointless to say actually, since he can only stay in rehab for 20 days anyhow.

Either way, we've seen this play out with Utley before, and he always comes back more quickly than any of us would've thought. I wouldn't be surprised to see him back for the Texas or Cincy series.

Why do people spew such vitriol at others just for voicing their inconsequential and innocuous opinions?

Strange...

I think Terry is Conlin. Seriously.

We have Pete Orr, Utley can take his sweet old time

On second thought, Utley should come back pronto. The high sock wearing contingent of baseball players is under represented on this team, especially with Oswalt on the shelf, and Blanton a question mark.

Any word when/if Utley's coming to Reading? Inquiring minds want to know..

Why is there so much analysis of how Utley looks at the plate vs. A level pitching? Pretty meaningless.

Really care about how he looks in the field and running the bases. Utley could come back and probably DH very shortly. Playing in the field everyday though . . .

Don't rush anybody. Re: Brown. How is the highly touted Michael Taylor doing??

MG, he's beaten out two infield singles in his 4 games he's played so far. As far as in the field, he was able to avoid a sliding baserunner last night while trying to turn a DP, and was able to leap a catch an errant throw to nab a basestealer, so the legs look okay in that regard. But, his DP throw yesterday wasn't very good, though that may come back with more reps; we'll see. Also, he was prone to the random missthrow on DP balls even before the injury.

i don't think oswalt's injury is "serious". it's nagging sure but not serious. blanton's is much more serious than his

I'd say a nagging back injury is fairly serious for a pitcher (or anyone) to have.

Fata,

I wouldn't bet money that Chase stays with the high sock look when he rejoins the big club...

different definition you have of serious than me. when i think serious, i think elbow or shoulder

I would consider any injury that keeps him from pitching effectively in single A serious.

Basil fomeen: Taylor's the internet "cant miss" MVP. He was honored at a ceremony that included Jeff Jackson, Reggie Taylor, Tyler Green, Dave Coggin, Eric Valent and Joe Savery.

Baron was the keynote speaker. They auctioned off an autographed photo for charity that had to rake in at leas $6.50.

that's fine. you know he didn't throw at all for 16 days or whatever. he might have just lost some arm strength and has to regain it. not everything is supposed to be an injury

Basil: last I hear Mike Taylor was still in extended spring training because of a wrist injury, which may or may not explain why his power disappeared last year.

Will: None of those guys were rated the #1 prospect in the minor league*.


*Yes, he moved to #1 after a few of the other top prospects got called up, but still.

Michael Taylor, are you kidding me? I was done with him by 2009. He played three years at Stanford, that started his clock. It only took Pat the Bat a couple of years to work his way through the system.

(If I may, seriously, point out something that is funny to me...I am arguing the exact opposite of what Will is saying about me. I am saying - Will let me make it clear here - NONE OF THESE GUYS ARE CAN'T MISS, SO TAKE YOUR FREAKING TIME WITH THEM, HAVE SOME G-D PATIENCE. Does the all-caps approach work for you?)

Injuries aside, is Bryce Harper a can't miss?

I was reading on FanGraphs that what he's been doing has only been done by two other prospects in the past 30 years. Guys you might have heard of: Alex Rodriguez and Ken Griffey, Jr.

If he's not a "can't miss", he's as close as they get.

Fatalotti: Those attitude issues don't raise any red flags with you?

Baron: Terry was responding to two moronic posts in a sarcastic fashion. I don't think nice-guy Conlin would do anything like that.

Bryce Harper = J.D. Drew. Yeah, I said it!

Mick O, I honestly haven't followed him too closely. He seems supremely cocky, but has something more serious arisen?

Unless it's something really crazy, I would just attribute it to him being an 18 year old who's probaby better at baseball then half the people in the majors, and I would hope that he'd get more humble as he matured. If he's going to turn into a player like Griffey (my favorite player of all time) or A-Rod, I really hope he makes it and succeeds. Watching talents like that is something I don't want to miss, even if he's playing for the Nat'ls.

I don't think there was anything particularly moronic with those posts, Clout. Just opinions being expressed. You know, essentially what people do on blogs.

clout, maybe. the more interesting issue might be why I'm so obsessed about figuring which poster is conlin.

I hope he matures, the last thing I want to watch is some entitled punk superstar. We don't need a LeBron James in baseball. He should take some cues from Pujols.

Harper's known to be a major league a-hole, but he's got a helluva lot of talent.

Jbird: Taylor was bothered by the wrist all last season. That has been reported. I thought he had an off-season operation.

JD Drew career numbers:

.280/.387/.496 (127 OPS+) and averaged .280 with 26 HRs and 83 RBIs per 162 games.

Yeah he has only made one All-Star but he has had a pretty damn nice career.

If Harper is a 125-130 OPS+ hitter for the Nats for several years, they will be more than satisfied with that.

I didn't watch the whole game, but the part I did see suggests that Singleton, on defense, leaves much to be desired in LF.

Brown was ranked the #4 best prospect in baseball this past offseason by baseball america. The "hit" rate on the #4 prospect on their lists is pretty good. going back, it is:

2010: Jesus Montero
2009: Tommy Hanson
2008: Clay Bucholz
2007: Philip Hughes
2006: Jeremy Hermida
2005: Ian Stewart
2004: Edwin Jackson
2003: Joe Mauer
2002: Sean Burroughs
2001: Jon Rauch
2000: Vernon Wells
1999: Bruce Chen
1998: Kerry Wood
1997: Matt White
1996: Darin Erstad
1995: Derek Jeter
1994: Alex Gonzalez (the Blue Jay)
1993: Carlos Delgado
1992: Chipper Jones
1991: Jose Offerman
1990: Juan Gonzalez

If you figure for the last 4 years, it's too early to tell, by that measure Brown has

24% chance of being a future or near HoFer

58% chance of having a long and productive career

82% chance of carving a out a career as a useful mlb player

11% chance of completely washing out.

dlhunter: I totally support your right to post a moronic opinion. I also support Terry's right to accurately describe it as moronic.

MG, that would be nice...for the Phillies. The fact is, he project to be more like a 170 OPS+ hitter.

Fat: If you believe the reports, Harper's very unliked by teammates, coaches, etc. Maybe he'll out-grow those unlikeable traits or maybe he'll always be a jerk. Being a jerk is, of course, fundamentally incompatible with being a good ball player so, if he can't out-grow it, he has no chance of making it in the majors.

(To forestall all the Barry Bonds/Ty Cobb/Pete Rose/Ted Williams posts, yes, that last sentence was sarcasm)

I thought Taylor was going to be a really good MLB player. In fact, I still think that. He had all the tools in MiLB and put up solid numbers at every stop along the way. Injuries set him back. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

There have been countless reports of Harper being an a-hole. In high school, in college, now in the minors. Reports from scouts, GMs, and teammates. The one thing that no one has ever questioned is his ability. The kid is, by all accounts, an off-the-charts prospect.

Baron: "the more interesting issue might be why I'm so obsessed about figuring which poster is conlin."

I would say Conlin is most likely to be a poster who seems to know a lot about prospects and baseball from the 1950s and 60s and is grumpy almost all the time.

I have no clue who on here would fit that description.

re: bryce harper. one scout i read recently said that in his opinion, not only did harper have the most power of any in the minor leagues, he was in the discussion for most power in the major leagues. not projecting, he meant right now, today.

Fata - A 170+ OPS hitter? Where did you see that? Mays was a 155+ OPS. Ditto Aaron.

MG, I mean in his best years, not averaging out over a career. That's what I thought you were referring to.

By the way, Pujols is currently sitting at 171 OPS+ for his career. He's fantastic.

JD Drew gets alot of hate in Philly because of his refusal to sign here and has been underrated because most of his seasons don't jump out at you.

He still has been a very good player in his career.

Fire starter - By the way Abreu is a 130+ OPS and was a 139+ OPS player here in Philly in 9 seasons. A legit 5-tool player who was a great hitter here.

"None of those guys were rated the #1 prospect in the minor league"

Domonic Brown is not the top prospect in the minor leagues. He's the last man standing.

Hey, I hope the guy really is the next Darryl Strawberry (minus the drugs), but until he proves that he's not just another AAAA bat, there's not much else that can be said about him. Yeah, the guy rakes against minor league pitching. Terrific. Wonderful. Now show me something that can help the Phillies win a championship and I'll be gushing right alongside all of you.

As for Bryce Harper, one Jeff Weaver pitch inside on the hands will correct his attitude problem.

Good list, Jbird. Thanks.

Dom Brown is one of the top prospects in baseball. The chances of him having a very productive career are excellent.

The chances of him having a great rookie year if only they'd let him play, as Jack has predicted, are far less. I think the more likely scenario is that he struggles a bit in his rookie year (the first year in which he gets at least 350 major league ABs), but has a good enough learning curve to move onward and upward from there.

clout - maybe. but could he also take on a different persona, you know, to throw us off the scent?

I have a few ideas of who it might be, but I'm still working my analysis. And I may or may not be one of the names on that list (the gap with the Baron being that my posts are generally devoid of facts or knowledge).

"82% chance of carving a out a career as a useful mlb player"

Probably the most likely scenario, but I'd like to see it begin (even a month or two) before I continue genuflecting to his talents.

As I have said before, I'd be very happy if Brown had an offensive career like that of Ibanez. Add to that athleticism that could make him a good baserunner and defensive player. Given his age, Brown could be a solid regular and occasional all-star over the next 12-15 years.

I'm guessing that Singleton will become the Phils' next offensive standout. He'll be a better all-around hitter than Brown, but not a five-tool guy like Brown.

Will, I hear you man. And most importantly, we need to work together to keep other people from "genuflecting to his talents." They need to shut it, and like now. Nothing to see here, please keep moving.

In contrast to Will's appraisal of the situation, I think people here have been rathered reserved about their expectations regarding Brown. I think, more than anything, people have been calling for Brown in response to Ibanez's ~.480-.600 OPS to start the season, noting that it would be hard for Brown to underperform those numbers.

Either way, I'm happy that the Phillies are taking it slowly with Brown, and with our current standing, the Phils can afford to see what Ibanez has left in the tank.

Yes, JD Drew was a "very good player" ... but now we get to ignore contract size and expecations?

Let me break the good news to Ryan Howard and Kyle Kendrick. They'll be looking forward to getting such a pass. :-)

No way will the Nats be happy if Harper has a JD Drew-like career.


Baron: You underrate yourself. You don't even make the Top 10 of moronic posters.

Clout: Oh, I think there's a very good chance that he struggles (though I think there's also a chance he's good and provides a real upgrade over the mediocrity or worse that is our corner OFs).

But at some point you have to get those struggles out of the way, right? You can't just keep saying "he's going to struggle to start" and keep delaying that start, or else he'll simply never play. He needs to come up, get through his rookie struggles, make his adjustments, and we'll see what happens from there.

clout, I don't think I have enough ABs to qualify yet, give it time.

I'm anxious to see Brown in Philly. The fact is, though, if he comes up someone else has to go. I just don't see it happening for at least a month unless there's an injury. After that, it will take a trade or for Ibanez or Francisco to be hitting .220 with a pathetic smattering of extra base hits. Anyone else see another scenario? They're not releasing Ibanez at this point, nor are they likely to bench Francisco and send Mayberry back down (if he even has an option left).

Hugh, they could release Gload and turn Ibanez into the lefty bat off the bench, or go to a short bullpen.

Realistically, you're right, I think. Brown will only come up if Ibanez or Francisco have been intolerably bad for a long stretch, and one gets released, or dumped as an add-in in some sort of trade.

Fatti, I thought about that, too, but Gload's not exactly failing in his role. I just don't see them going with 6 OF. Something's gotta give and, injury is the only 'something' that I see happening, short term.

Jack: You and I agree on that. I wanted him up last season and I want him up now.

And, to be clear, I'd use him in RF and sit Francisco, not Ibanez, vs. RHP.

True Hugh. Brown should only come up if he replaces one of our current corner OFs, since he can't prove himself from a bench role. If he does that, there's no clear answer as to who should go and who should stay, especially if one wants to maintain the diversity of lefties and righties, and since the two "lesser" players (Gload and Mayberry) have performed well in their roles, while the other two (Francisco and Ibanez) have not...well, Francisco hasn't been much worse than we expected, but you get the point.

Hugh has nailed the reason why Brown isn't likely to get called up any time in the immediate future: roster math.

I don't see the Phillies dumping Valdez or Orr. If you're heading into a playoff series, you might be able to get away with having only one backup infielder, but I don't think you can do it in mid-season.

I can't see the Phillies dumping Gload, who's their best pinch hitter, & Ibanez would really have to stink it up for a prolonged period of time for the Phillies to consider releasing him. I could see a minor trade involving Francisco or Mayberry, but that would leave the team woefully short on right-handed OF options.

That leaves only the 6-man bullpen option, which might be the most plausible scenario for getting Brown onto the roster. More likely, he's staying in AAA until an injury forces the Phillies' hand -- which, inevitably, it will.

Did Oswalt have back problems when he left to help his family or did he leave ot help his family and then incur back problems?

lorecore, scenario A.

5 Starters
7 Relievers
5 INF
2 C
6 OF
25 Total

I dump Orr and Martinez for Utley and Brown.

I think it's imperative you have two back-up infielders throughout a 162 game season, especially when your entire infield is over 31 years old, and 2 of the 4 have significant injury histories.

The Phillies would be better able to survive with a 6 man bullpen.

Left for dead on the side of the road:

Don't look now but you know who is on fire right now?

Raold!

Last 14 days:

10 G - .395/.395/.684 with 2 HRs in 38 ABs

April showers bring May flowers but what do they do for Ibanez?

With Utley's injury and Polanco/Rollins injury history, I believe there is little chance the Phillies carry a bench with just Valdez. That means the bench will definitely carry Valdez and Orr (I hope, instead of Martinez) as well as a backup catcher. That leaves just two other spots. Gload is a lock and Mayberry has certainly proven himself.

The only chance for Brown to fit into the roster math is a 6-man bullpen.

CJ: Or an injury to an outfielder. But you are right, now way they are or should go with one backup infielder.

Are both corner outfielders gone next year, or do they try to resign Francisco as a cheap ($1-2m) backup and ph?

My guess: both are gone. They bring in a FA or trade over the offseason and go with an OF of Brown/Vic/FA, and continue using Mayberry as a backup.

Just a guess, though.

Marv: Francisco will be in his 2nd arbitration year. How this season plays out will tell us a lot about his future. Ibanez is definitely gone, with, I assume, Brown taking his spot in the lineup. That means we'll need a starting RF again. If it's not Benny Frank, we'll be signing a FA with Mayberry Jr. likely being the 4th OF, RH bench bat.

"I would say Conlin is most likely to be a poster who seems to know a lot about prospects and baseball from the 1950s and 60s and is grumpy almost all the time.

I have no clue who on here would fit that description.

Posted by: clout "

Har!

Nevermind, Ben Fran is under team control, right? If that's the case, they sign him for like $1.3 M

But, I still think they go after a FA or trade in the offseason, if not this year.

I am not a francisco fan, but I would def keep him next year, as he is team controlled at a value and despite his flaws, will hit enough mistake pitching to stay around average mlb production.

It would be pretty foolish to not bring back Ben Fran given he will get a nominal raise and the Phis would likely spend more on the FA market to bring in slightly inferior veteran.

Ibanez and Gload though are gone.

Fat: I'm not sure it comes in at $1.3. He's at $1.175 this year (I think) and he's likely to accumulate significantly more at bats.

So maybe Ben platoons with someone in left and Brown is given--earns would be nice-- right.

Orr has options, you can stash in AAA while you only carry Valdez as a backup.

If Polly/Rollins/Utley go down - Valdez replaces and Orr can be reaclled.

CJ - I would bet he wouldn't clear much more than $2M. Maybe even less if he really has a down year.

If Mayberry continues to produce all year, they might just let Francisco go and look for a left-handed bat since Brown will almost certainly be counted on to start next year.

Damn, I wish I could make ~$1.5 M for having a "down" year.

Roy Oswalt -

True American Hero for skipping town for 4 days to clear fallen timber from his vast acreages, possibly exacerbating an already injured back in the process.

Roy Oswalt -

Irredeemable Douchewad for not speaking to reporters after a mediocre Minor League rehab start.

Gee whiz but this Oswalt fellow is quite the complex character ...

here's harper's current slash line as an 18 year old in his first pro season: .396/.472/.712


here's his slash line since he was fitted for contacts two weeks into the season: 467/.549/.867


yikers

Dave - Clearing timber/bush on your vast property is what 'True Americans Hero' do . . .

Bryce Harper, right now, is probably better than a third of the cleanup hitters in baseball.

lorecore, I like the Orr with options scenario, but it ignores the elephant in the room (as does the short bullpen scenario). With the likes of Ibanez, Mayberrry, Gload, Ben Fran and Brown, there's just a log jam with too many guys and only 2 corner OF spots (and a pinch AB or two/game).

I firmly agree with the logic that Brown will develop BEST at the MLB level where he can work on that inside pitch against pitchers who can pitch him there consistently. However, he can only get those reps if he can play regularly, and with too many OF guys on the bench I don't see how that happens.

If it does, though, I expect that BL will be wrought with traffic, because no matter who is playing/struggling, there will be a plethora of "Plan B" options on the bench.

I don't think the Phils will need to go outside the organization to make any major moves this season.

I think Brown nails down the RF job some time this year and will become a RF fixture.

Obviously, the Phils need to figure out what they have in Utley.

If he's done, they need to make a major move involving top prospects.

I think it's more likely that they conclude that Utley will remain productive, but play only 130-135 games per season.

That means the Phils should pick up a quality infield bench guy who's good for 250-300 at bats (They should also have a decent sixth IF.).

Singleton is a guy to watch. If he picks up the pace at Clearwater, he could earn a second-half promotion to Reading. While it's premature, that could mean he's ready to be the Phils' starting LF at the start of 2013. Otherwise, it's likely to be the start of 2014.

In any event, the Phils need a LF for one or two seasons, preferably a right-handed bat. I think there will be some free agents available to fill the bill.

I don't think it will be necessary to trade any top prospects.

The one luxury that we do have, even with the Oswalt/Blanton injuries, is that we can get away with a short bullpen, if need be, as these starters really can eat some innings.

Right now we're using that luxury to hide Baez, Stutes and Bastardo (for whatever reason).

But, if a short bullpen is needed to free up a bench spot, I don't see it dooming the bullpen, especially if KK's role is so dynamic (thereby filling 2 mutually exclusive bullpen "roles" with 1 guy).

My prediction for most likely scenario to get Brown to the big league level rests solely on the offense of Ibanez. If he heads toward another prolonged slump, I suspect they'll chalk it up to an "injury" and slide Brown back onto the 25 man.

Preach: As much as I agree that Dom needs playing time and can't jsut sit the bench - I am not against a platoon, since being a lefty will have him starting 70% of the time(i think?).

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