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Thursday, April 21, 2011

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I must be a serious baseball junkie. Took a long nap this afternoon to stay up and watch.

Dodgers just coughed up their lead over the Braves trying to get Kershaw a complete game.

I missed my power nap. I'll need liquid energy.

I seem to remember the Phillies being somewhat Latos intolerant in San Diego last year. Nothin' like headin' on out to the pitchin'est pitcher's park there is to help wake up the ol' bats ...

Dave - Padres have a collective line of .222/.309/.334 so far and have scored 3.33 R/G through 18 games. At home through 8 games, .216/.307/.322.

I am looking a bunch of 2-1 and 1-0 games that take ~2 hrs so I can listen to an entire game if I want to.

MG: I've got no problem w/ that, so long as the Phillies are scoring 2 & 1, respectively, to the Padres' 1 & 0.

Jim Salisbury (via Twitter): Lineup vs SD. Victorino 2b, Polanco 3b, Rollins ss, Howard 1b, Ibañez Lf, Francisco RF, Orr 2b, Schneider C, Oswalt P.

The over/under for runs scored in this game is either 5.5 or 6. Vegas not exactly expecting alot of fireworks tonight.

I don't mean to beat a practically dead LF horse, but this really is a striking difference.


Raul Ibañez, Home/Road Splits:

'10 Home - 80 G .304 BA/.377 OBP/.504 SLG/.881 OPS v.

'10 Road - 75 G .246 BA/.321 OBP/.384 SLG/.705 OPS


'11 Home - 11 G .275 BA/.356 OBP/.375 SLG/.731 OPS v.

'11 Road - 6 G .125 BA/.160 OBP/.167 SLG/.327 OPS

MLB Attendance:

"After four years of record attendance, Major League Baseball has had three years of attendance declines. And judging from the empty stadium pictures my followers have sent to me on Twitter this season, things don’t appear to be getting better.

If you average every team’s attendance so far and compare it to that exact amount of games last year, Major League Baseball is only averaging 304 fans fewer per game than last year. While that 1 percent drop is significant, it’s not as much as I would have thought from some of the pictures I’ve seen.

I’m not trying to say this isn’t serious for baseball. It is. Last season, average attendance was 30,138 fans per game, off a whopping 8.1 percent from its record in 2007. So far this year, the average attendance is 28,997 fans per game.

It’s clear that major changes have to be made."

Phils have the average highest attendance going away and it isn't even close at 45,457. Next up is Giants at 41,795 with the Yanks rounding out the Top 3.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AoPhYg_FienZD0vXRJ5qUOg5nYcB?slug=ys-cnbc_does_baseball_have_attendance_problem_042111

"I've got no problem w/ that, so long as the Phillies are scoring 2 & 1, respectively, to the Padres' 1 & 0."

So, that means you won't be heard to utter a negative word about the offense if we score 6 total runs in the series but win all 4 games? I'm afraid I find that a little hard to believe.

leftover question from the last thread: nobody questioned drago's take that aumont could "fill a role in the bullpen within the next year." doesn't that seem like a fast timeline, especially the way our organization moves with relievers?

we have guys who've acquitted themselves well in spring training (stutes) and guys who've dominated at AAA (mathieson)--yet my gut tells me neither of them will even fill a role in this pen within a year. (insert kendrick/herndon joke here.)

G'Town Dave, thanks for posting this one in previous thread. I had to include it again as I agree completely:

Adam Rubin (via Twitter): "Terry Collins says Mets will wear Spring Training uniforms today, trying to recapture that success."

There aren't enough "LOL"s in the world ...

b_a_p: You never know. I might be so overjoyed w/ a Phillies sweep that I lavish praise on our moribund offense.

On the Aumont question, I agree that is likely too fast. However, the only known bullpen piece that will be there next season is Contreras. Assuming no free agents, then Bastardo, and a bunch on even younger guys will be out there. I suspect that if Aumont is awesome all season at AA he gets a chance in Sept and if good in limited time then he could start 2012 in the major league bullpen. He has the best 'stuff' of any of the relievers in Phils minors so that is why he could move quickly.

I must be a serious baseball junkie. Took a long nap this afternoon to stay up and watch.

Posted by: Scotch Man | Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 05:39 PM

I'm right there with you man. I worked an extra two hours of work today so I can go into work later tomorrow. I'm just upset that I'm going to miss Hamels' start tomorrow night because I'll be at a concert in NY.

Aumont would seem to have an upside that Mathieson & Stutes probably don't have. After all, he was a Top 100 prospect only a year ago. Doesn't mean he'll continue to pitch well, or that he'll be on the fast track to the majors if he does. But it does mean that Mathieson's experience is probably not a good guideline for how the Phillies will treat Aumont, if he continues to pitch well.

PhxPhilly - They have a $2.5M option on Contreras with a $500k buyout. He very well could be back but who knows if he makes it through the season intact. If he breaks down, I doubt the Phils would we willing to bring him back at 41 (haha) next year.

GTown: True. You never know. I mean, it's also possible that Jimmy Rollins will go 11 for 16 with 10 RBIs over the next 4 games, while Raul Ibanez goes 9 for 15 with 4 homeruns. But past performance tells me that Rollins is more likely to go 1 for 16 with 0 RBIs, while Ibanez is likely to go 0 for 11 with 8 strikeouts and 2 errors. Likweise, your past performance tell me that, if the Phillies don't hit this weekend, you'll be lavishing plenty of vitriol at them on Beerleaguer. As will I, of course.

Under/Over on runs this weekend for the Phils vs. Padres - 13.5?

Meant the Phils 13/13.5 sound about right.

b_a_p: It's a shame Wade LeBlanc doesn't appear to be w/ the Padres any more. I probably could have run off a rant containing 3 paragraphs worth of synonyms for the word "disgust" after his 8IP, 2H, 0ER performance alone.

b_a_p: Please, pray tell -- you are the ultimate educated pessimist. At this point in time, Jimmy Rollins (shudder), Raul Ibanez and (gulp!) and even Ryan Howard appears to be on the downside; or able to be managed by the "freakonomics" of slop-balling a 3-ball count with junk. Ostensibly, our sluggers wait on fastballs, and wail at breaking stuff... as Harry might lament "... swwwing anna miss struuuk eehhm out..."

If you were GM RIGHT NOW what would you do to cure this pathetic offense? Are we forced to wait until the deadline? Geesh. The best of times, the worst of times.

Latos is a hell of a young pitcher.

Two good pitchers. Two pretty weak offenses right now. A pitcher's park.

Take the over! It's a lock.

Singleton back in the lineup in Clearwater. 1 for 3, season batting line at .321. Has a fielding error in LF, but also has an assist as well.

Singleton is gonna be pretty special.

Whenever a guy's bat is compared to Manny Ramirez, that's pretty damn special.

NEPP: Yeah, Singleton can hit. Be interesting to see what the scouts say about his power. The FSL is a pitcher's league, with power very hard to come by (Dom Brown barely hit any homers in Clearwater and then "exploded" at Reading with power).

Singleton's numbers likely won't reflect power, but if the scouts say he has plus raw power, with a .300+ hit tool, that's a pretty special hitter.

"Whenever a guy's bat is compared to Manny Ramirez, that's pretty damn special."

Whoa, never heard that one about Singleton. Heard it about Montero, but never Singleton. Don't know if he really has THAT upside. He faded pretty badly at the end of last season, he really needs to put together a full season before he becomes an uber-prospect.

Isn't it remarkable that all the Phils power in their last game with the Brewers came from the top of the order? Rollins, Howard, Ibanez and Francisco have been comatose. At the very least, Cholly needs to undo his most incomprensible move to date and drop Rollins down to the 7 hole. Mayberry (not to be mistaken for Jayson Werth) needs to platoon with Ibanez. I would move Chooch up to the #2 spot and bat Polanco #3. Bottom line, time to start looking at trades.

Supposedly he's got pretty good power potential from what I've read.

Here's some of the pre-draft reports:

"Jonathan is a very strong well built left handed hitter with big time power. He has lift in his swing and the ball flies off his bat like a rocket. He has easy power now, but he is also a very good all around hitter with a good approach at the plate."-PG Showcase

"Singleton has an impressive build, and his large, strong hands indicate natural power potential. He has a sweet, fluid swing, and his bat speed produces an audible “whoosh” as he swings at a pitch. " -Baseball America

I think he projects as a 30+ HR guy at this point.

***Whoa, never heard that one about Singleton. Heard it about Montero, but never Singleton. Don't know if he really has THAT upside. He faded pretty badly at the end of last season, he really needs to put together a full season before he becomes an uber-prospect.***

The exact comment was made last year mid-summer and it was "Singleton is the most advanced hitter I've seen at this level [Sally League] since Manny Ramirez". That's as close to verbatim as I can remember.

I took that as decent praise.

Bottom line, time to start looking at trades.


And a piece of the sky just landed in my front yard.
Geeze. The have played a total of 17 games and their winning pct. is a measly .647

cut: Since I don't know what trades are possible, or what kind of budget the Phillies have, I'm not really in position to say what I'd do. I also kind of doubt that teams are going to be trading away their established players in April. We probably have to wait until at least June, when some teams start to fall 10 & 15 games out.

I do have concerns that the payroll constraints are going to make a trade impossible. During the off-season, Amaro broadly hinted that, if they kept Blanton, it would limit their flexibility to make in-season trades. I suppose ownership could always change its mind if a trade otherwise looks attractive enough. Or maybe Rube can pull a rabbit out of his hat, as he did last year when he got Houston to take on all of Oswalt's remaining 2010 salary & most of his 2011 salary, as well.

I guess it could be said about him, but I don't think he had the same type of season a Trout did, for instance. Or Montero becoming a top hitter in AAA at 20.

This season's a really important one for him, but Reading will be the real test.

I dont know that we have any incriminating photos of Ed Wade remaining at this point.

Neither do I, Chris. I'd put him a good big step below a guy like Trout as a prospect or Montero as a pure hitter.

Reading will definitely be the true test. That leap to AA is a big one. Hopefully one he makes sometime this summer.

Here's a way to judge him...if he makes it to Reading this summer, he'll be the youngest player on the team by more than 2 full years. Freddy Galvis is currently the youngest (Age 21) and he's a full year younger than anyone else himself.

Again -- it's all about Blanton. Damn. Go Joe!! Reel off 10 straight.

I hate to lose a young arm. However, I hate even more to give up what has been marked as an epic season to a '62 Mets (tongue firmly in cheek) offense.

Yeah, the Phils seem to stick with a 1 level a year approach for most in their system. Brown bucked that trend last year, I hope Singleton can do the same.

Even if he stays in Clearwater, its okay. He's the youngest player in the entire FSL. There are only 3 guys under the age of 20 in the entire FSL. Wilmer Flores is 1 month older and pitcher Scottie Hall (Yankees prospect) is 2 months older. He'll be fine regardless. I too am hoping they buck the trend (assuming he performs of course) and fast-track him.

MLbtraderumors doing a really hedged bet method of throwing sh8t at the wall with a varitable who's who of crap they never had interest in during the off season as "potential trade targets" for the Phils such as Beltran and Jack Cust.

That should read Scottie Allen, not Hall. Scottie Allen, if you'll recall, was acquired from the DBacks for Juan Miranda last winter. Miranda is a platoon 1B for the DBacks in the Majors currently.

thanks phxphilly and bap for your replies about aumont. (sorry, away from the computer for a bit)

I wonder how late I'll make it tonight...maybe 4th-5th inning. Stupid WC trips.

Anyone know if the game will be on the real CSN tonight, or is it limited to the inaccessible-to-me formerly-CN8-CSN? I hate the NBA/NHL playoffs!

Gee, as a current Arizona resident, I must be the only one delighted with tonight's start time. I get out of work normally around the 4th inning, this is a nice change of pace.

Sorry, Spartanburg. The Phils are on TCN until the Sixers are done, which will be about 1.25 playoff games from now.

If you're out of town and have Comcast, the game is on the GAMEHD channel tonight.

The play by play guy can't pronounce a single name. And it sounds like Dick Enberg? Really weird.

How the hell are we gonna win with Valdez's big bat on the bench again?

Sixers have a shot at winning this game, GTown.

Should be a good game tonight. Couple of great pitching teams. So far, a great AB by Victorino to start the game. Seeing a lot of pitches.

Didn't get on base, but a nice long AB there by Shane.

Ugly little truth about Stutes: He's a fringe prospect. Move to bullpen helps, but his 5.2 BB/9 last year was a red flag. Plus he's already 24.

He has no better chance than Mathieson does of sticking.

Way to stay hot, Polly.

This lineup cracks me up with its ability to get absurdly lucky singles.

On Stutes: I agree overall but the Phillies seemed impressed with him in ST. Perhaps he's improved from his fringy status.

Bake McBride shout out on 30 Rock tonight.

I hate that I don't get TCN.

Not out of town, Jack. In Allentown. I guess I'm not in the Philly market... I have RCN cable. GAME HD shows up on my guide, but I'd need to subscribe. Stupid NBA.

For those on MLB.tv, the Padres have a decent tv crew that is far less annoying than T-Mac/Wheels.

Um, ok. Polanco steal?

They must really have something scouted with Latos and Hundley. He should've been dead in the water there.

Average, power, defense, stolen bases...so many tools for Polly!

Polly is really slow...Hundley has an Ibanezesque arm there.

Yeah, no luck involved here...

What can't Polly do??

HA!

Ludwick with a Ibanezeque play in LF.

That route that Ludwick took to the ball...wow. Talk about taking the back roads.

That's a hell of a slide by Polly.

Gotta love this new powerhouse Phils lineup. This just cracks me up, honestly.

That was one hell of a slide by Polly.

Jonathan Singleton, OTOH, is the real deal.

I don't agree with NEPP that he'll hit 30 HRs, but he'll definitely hit. He's been young for each level so far and has put up nice numbers. Thing to watch: Whether he has another second-half collapse.

Easy run here. Just get it done Ryan.

Even the Pads announcers agree he was safe.

Some weak swings to start the AB.

Seriously, how is that NOT an error? I mean, that was a textbook error.


On Singleton: I am very bullish on him. I say 30 HRs.

Ugh, Howard swings first pitch every time he's up in a big spot.

Does everyone except Howard know they're gonna throw him breaking balls? What a terrible AB.

Howard just doesn't look comfortable seeing the ball against this guy.

Fail.

Crap Howard...I mean just crap.

Well, I'm sure Ibanez will get a hit here.

That's what happens when the Phillies offense slumps. They miss mistakes just like Ibanez missed in the third pitch of the AB. That was a hanging slider, and he should have put that in play.

Our 4 and 5 hitters. Awesome.

Screw this. Let Polanco bat cleanup.

Garbage.

That's 25 pitches from Latos. This is a good start, not a bad start.

our RBI machines come through for us!

I really hate Ibanez.

Ibanez hit a foul ball pretty hard in that AB. Based on what he's shown recently, that makes the plate appearance a success.

Oh Rauold


son of a dirty arse bitch

And once again, I have to question the "wisdom" not only of allowing Ibañez to play at all, but if he really must, of batting him 5th ... WTF?

Dont worry, clout. A guy like Latos might have a rough start but he tends to settle in and go 7-8 strong innings after that. This was our best shot.

I forgot we get to see Phillie-killer Cantu in this series.

What a great 3-4-5. Howard has really adjusted.

Sadly, Ibanez's AB was significantly better than Howard's.

I don't want to rip on the guy, because I'm already known for it. But is there any other "superstar" getting paid $20M+ who there's such an obvious book on? Just throw him breaking balls down and away, and he can't help but swing and miss at them.

I mean, come on. It's been the same for 5 years now.

90 mph?

he starts slower but that seems a bit low.

Teams go right after Howard nowadays too. Litle fear he will hurt them.

The way this ump is calling balls and strikes, both pitchers will run up high pitch counts.

There have been a lot of small strikezone games this year. I wonder if the Umps were told to call it that way over the winter.

Paint.

MG: and they're right.

Jack: Absolutely right. Howard has just been awful for the past 5 years. No learning curve at all. Amazing the Phils have stuck with him this long.

"Great" read by Vic there.

not.

If only we had made that Ryan Howard/Oliver Perez trade when we had the chance.

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