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Friday, April 29, 2011

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lorecore: His current ERA was largely derived from his time as a starter. His career ERA as a reliever is 2.79. Are you suggesting $2.45M is too much for a reliever with a career ERA of 2.79?

I wonder if people realize how significant it is that Dom has been hitting home runs so early in his rehab. One of the things most affected by the injury he sustained is power. That often takes the longest to return.

Hoping for a stellar outing from Worley and a performance similar to last time with Pelfrey.

Disclaimers: I realize Dom is hitting in A ball... and it's a small sample size. I'm commenting more on having 2 HR in his first 9 PAs. I'm not suggesting his performance will immediately translate to any other level.

Check out this beautiful swing. Hands too high my 8ss.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXf21y5mJ7E&feature=player_embedded


From the Phillies twitter account, tonight's lineup:

Victorino CF, Polanco 3B, J Roll SS, Howard 1B, Francisco RF, Ibanez LF, Orr 2B, Schneider C, Worley P

As much talk as there's been about Ibanez... it's becoming more clear that Pete Orr has worked himself into a platoon role with Valdez, hasn't it? Am I imagining this?

And if that's the case, Orr is in line for more starts than Valdez because there are more RH starters out there.

"... kind of a moronic route runner."

At least he's not egregiously moronic.

Thanks Shawn. "OMG...Holy8..."

I think Valdez will still get the majority of starts because his defense is known to be stronger than Orr - but I am in favor of Orr getting some more time. Hope he keeps it up.

Valdez seems to come on as a late-inning defensive replacement. I think they like him more on the bench, considering he can play any position, just in case. Plus, they can PH-for Orr, bringing a steadier glove in with Valdez. Though, I will say, Orr doesn't seem to be too much of a slouch with the glove himself. I do think, however, that Mini-Mart is just about useless and serves no purpose on this team.

Thank goodness Francisco's stats don't resemble Werth's 2011 stats or there wouldn't be enough venom to go around between Raul, KK, Baez, JRoll and Ben.

I'm going to have to take exception to something clout posted in the last thread (I know, shocking, right?).

He claimed: "During a game thread no one makes more moronic comments than GTown Dave."

Now, I try VERY HARD to make the most inane and asinine posts I can in every game thread I'm able to post in. To not even be recognized is a bit disrespectful. Although, if I have to concede the crown, GTown is among the select few I'd step aside for.

I guess I'm going to have to step up on the moronic comment front.

CJ: If Kendrick keeps a sub 3 ERA out of the pen over a good 60-70IP this year then I will be a fan of his and will regret giving up on him.

"Now, I try VERY HARD to make the most inane and asinine posts I can in every game thread"


Preach', you're largely successful. It's just that G-Town takes it to a level unrealized since the days of mvptommyd. :)

JW makes a good point. Gload has been rather conspicuous with his absence of performance this season (he doesn't get based because the expectations are lower, even though many on here predicted he'd be ripe for a career year and make some noise).

lorecore, previous names etc: Do you like Orr because of his salary?

lorecore: But he'll still be making $2.45M!!!!!!!!!!! I think hating him is the right choice.

re BenFran

Can't argue with the thread header, he has held his own. He's gotten pretty hot and has went through some struggles in the early going already, but in the end that 110 OPS+ will do.

Im glad JW mentions his platoon splits - which career-wise are pretty non-existence as they have been again early this season.

I used that as a dig on him earlier this year, that he doesnt have good platoon splits, and I still stand by that. I would really like him to produce better vs LHP as the season progresses. If he could hurt LHP enough, he could really play a great spot in between Howard/Ibanez because it would limit the chances a LOOGY would have to get through a full inning unharmed.

WP: Please let the record show that I made that comment about GTown in DEFENDING him.

Oh, and BTW, several of you here have commented on and accused me of "name calling" on this board. Mostly, it seems, because I make up little groups like the Sir Alden Trio, and the latest the PPQ or PPP (hat tip to R's g'pa).

I've thought long and hard (maybe for about 5 seconds) as to whether those labeled are owed some sort of apology or ought to be cut some slack. I came to the realization that I haven't been cut any slack on this board - ever, and have even been falsely labeled a racist.

King Jason's Beer*Leaguer is a harsh realm.

Joe, stop being such a p8ssy! Impingement, my a88! Your Uncle Tommy had impingement in both elbows, never s stopped him from chopping wood!

clout: Dont worry, I'm not a Pete Orr fan either - I just like that he has played decently in his limited time, and agree with Charlie for giving him more time - especially since Valdez has been struggling pretty badly at the plate.

clout, true. You should definitely get credit for defending G-Town!

I actually don't like Dom's swing in that video. Notice how he sort of drifts back, pauses, then shifts his weight forward to hit the ball. IMO, and I'm no hitting coach, this could lead to some timing issues.

@awh,
That is an "alledged" racist.

CJ: "i think hating him is the right choice"

I know this has been said to you about 1000 times by so many different posters, but I guess I'll try as well.

Saying something that isn't positive regarding the phillies and/or any of their players does not mean that I "hate" anyone. If I hated KK I would have said - I hate KK. I just said im no longer a fan of his, based on his role on the team, his ability, and in my opinion his overpaid salary.

Try to actually hold a debate with people instead of equating the slightest bit of criticism to YOU HATE THE PHILLIES!

Valdez has been the quintessential futility infielder at the plate this year. I don't blame Manuel for picking his spot as one where he looks for some more production. They need to find it somewhere.

I like this logic...

KK is to be disliked because he's making $2.45M even though he's not a 5th starter anymore.

It'd be okay to like him if he were still the 5th starter.

It'd be okay to like him if he continues to pitch this effectively over 60 innings of relief.

What this means is that we're to dislike him because we're to assume he will suck as a reliever and won't earn his $2.45M this season.

Platoon left field with Ibanez/Mayberry, leave Francisco in right.

And if Ibanez continues to hit poorly, replace him with Gload.

If the Phils are looking at possible insurance claims for Utley, Lidge and/or Blanton, might that open them up to increasing the payroll in July? Moving a mid-tier prosp for a salary dumped corner outfielder?

What are the opinions if Blanton was the one earning 2.54 and Kendrick was at 11 or whatever Blanton is making? Would Kendrick be worthy of the no.5 spot?

The good thing about this discussion re: KK is no one can possibly question my consistency or logic.

I have disliked Kendrick as a pitcher on the Phillies whether he was a starter or in the bullpen, and whether he was making the league minimum or $2.45M.

doesn't a player have to be ruled out for the entire season in order to invoke an insurance claim. Didn't the astros try to do that in bagwell's last contract year?

I know I'm kind of late to the party, but a question for the poster (I believe it was Derek) from the last thread:

I love the book "Cobb" by Al Stump and I was wondering where I could read about how he has been discredited? That would be interesting.

Also, I guess I read the book slightly differently from most, as I don't think it painted Cobb as 100% a bad guy. I thought it painted him as a complicated character who, above anything else, wanted to win. Win at baseball, win at life, whatever. I just think his perception of winning was a little skewed.

Also, I think it presented Cobb not so much as a bad guy (although he had a lot of repellent traits) but a guy who probably suffered from some untreated mental illness that was exacerbated a great deal by the trauma of his mother killing his father with a shotgun, and to a lesser extent, the hazing he received in the minor leagues.

lorecore, so you think that $2.45MM for a guy who:

1) has proven to be an effective #5
2) can step into that #5 role in an emergency
3) can eat innings effectively
4) is a middle reliever/longman(not by his own choice)
5) may prove himself effective in that role
6) never complains and works very hard at his job
7) does everything asked of him

is too much money?

You may be right, but in the grand scheme of things, especially when compared to what other RP are making who can't step in and pitch 180 innings if need be, I think $2.45MM is probably a pretty fair cost for an insurance policy is a starting pitcher goes down.

"if a starting pitcher goes down".

Free Mayberry!

He only has had 13 ABs vs. LHP but his line of .308/.400/.462 just begs for more PT vs. LHP pitching. He isn't

Really limited justification on why Ibanez starts right now vs. Niese on Sat. or Lannan on Thurs. but he likely will.

Actually Francisco has looked a lot more comfortable out in RF as the month has progressed & had better communication with Vic on flyballs.

Notably better range & arm at this point than Raold.

"doesn't a player have to be ruled out for the entire season in order to invoke an insurance claim." That's part of what I don't know. I did read somewhere that it depends on the insurance contract, but I don't know where I read that or how the Phils structure their insurance policies.

I think $2.45 million is too much for Kendrick's first year of arbitration, being that first year arb is supposed to represent 40% of your value on the open market. Is KK was a FA this year, does he make $6.125 mil on a one year deal?

What are the odds that Ibanez starts tomorrow vs. Niese?

"Notably better range & arm at this point than Raold. "

Bobby Abreu probably has a better range and arm at this point than Raold, unfortunately. That's not a high bar to set.

Heather- that is GOLD GLOVE WINNING Bobby Abreu. Show some respect.

;-)

Oh, and as to the topic on this thread, Ben Francisco is performing almost exactly as his supporters thought he would.

Those of us who used his historical numbers to try to project what he could do over the course of a season if given enough PA are being proven right.

Ben is what he is: A slightly above average hitter.

Going forward, based on his historical numbers, we might see a little shift in his ratio of hits. That is, while his HR are slightly higher than his historical averages, it's probably statistically insignificant because of the sample size. However, historically he has hit a far greater percentage of 2B than he currently has, so we may see some improvement in that area as the season progresses.

One little anecdote: His one 3B this season equaled his career total up to this season.

awh: Kyle Kendrick performance last season was equivalent to a replacement level - so I do not think that is worth $2.5M.

I think you over value Kendrick's ability to start. The Phillies would rather start Worley.

And I think Worley could give you better performance than Kendrick could - in any role, so obviously my opinion of Kendrick's role on the team and salary are not too high.

Would they rather start Worley? Or are you basing that just on this specific situation?

Heather, arb salaries are negotiated based on historical levels of compensation. If you think KK is making too much his first year in arbitration, then you probably think ANY SP (which is what he was when he negotiated the deal) who can pitch 180 innings with a better than average ERA for a #5 is making too much.

Some teams just release guys like that. That's how Matt Capps wound up with the Nats and then Twinkies.

I suppose many on here would prefer Nelson Figueroa and his $900,000 salary.

Oh yeah....plus his 8.28 ERA.

"Bobby Abreu probably has a better range and arm at this point than Raold, unfortunately."

Abreu was a poor defensive right fielder in his time with the Phillies, but he actually had a very good arm.

Ken Rosenthal with his $ .02 on the state of the Phils and their rotation:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Philadelphia-Phillies-rotation-cannot-carry-the-team-all-season-042811


Seems to me we were discussing this a week ago.

theory: this specific situation - what other evidence does anyone have?

A starter goes down - the Phillies call up Worley to start instead of Kendrick to spot start.

MG-

I'd be shocked if Ibanez starts on Saturday against Neise.

Both Mayberry and Valdez will be in there on Saturday, I'd guess.

Any word on which pitcher (or mini mart) is being sent down (or sent back to the Nats)to make room for the third catcher?

If Ibanez has a couple of hits tonight, he'll start tomorrow against Niese. Not saying it makes sense, just saying that's the way it is.

If he has another 0-fer... there's a 50-50 shot he still plays.

Gelb tweets: Phillies optioned Mike Zagurski to make room for Dane Sardinha. 40-man roster is full again.

I would have called up Kratz instead but this was a no-brainer. You need two healthy catchers on a roster.

awh - That was a fairly weak article by Rosenthal even for a national audience.

I doubt the Phils have insurance on any of the players currently on the DL. Maybe they took a policy on Utley but, it's not that common and it is prohibitively expensive. Last guy I recall they had a policy on was Dykstra and collecting on that policy was reported to be a huge, protracted hassle - as with almost all substantial insurance claims. They aren't getting insurance money in July to make a trade.

"theory: this specific situation - what other evidence does anyone have?

A starter goes down - the Phillies call up Worley to start instead of Kendrick to spot start."

I'm not a pitching expert, so maybe I'm just being stupid here, but to me (the stress on me) it makes sense if the Phillies are expecting to only have to fill Blanton's rotation spot short-term, to fill the spot with someone who is already stretched out in the minors. That way you're only filling one spot, rather than filling the spot only to create a bullpen vacancy.

Or to put it another way, I trust Worley starting with KK as a reliever more short term than I would KK as a starter with who knows who from the minors (I can't think of anyone off hand who would excite me to fill KK's bullpen role). Once we'd look at a long-term absence, then my position shifts to thinking it is a better gamble to mess with the bullpen and get KK starting.

Who wants to point out how I'm being stupid?
(Seriously--I'm guessing there is a fatal flaw to my logic and I want to know what it is.)

Heather, I don't think Cobb's father was killed with a shotgun. Could be wrong.

The Theory: That is correct. That's the most likely sequence of events that lead to Worley starting as opposed to a strict, "Who is the better starting pitcher?" discussion.

that could be true.

But if Kendrick is the better starting pitcher - why wouldn't he be the one stretched out in AAA?

..........Probably because he provides more value to the team over the course of a season (assuming no long-term injuries to the starting rotation) in the bullpen than to provide the occasional spot-start?

lorecore: Just common sense, no? KK already has a defined role on the team: Middle reliever. Worley has been pitching well at LV as a starter.

The stupid move would be to change the roles of two pitchers by putting KK into the rotation and Worley into middle relief, no?

lorecore: "But if Kendrick is the better starting pitcher - why wouldn't he be the one stretched out in AAA?"

Wow, you are obviously being tongue-in-cheek here because no one is this moronic.

Just in case you're serious, as a general rule teams like to have their best pitchers on their roster, as opposed to the minor leagues, regardless of roles.

The Theory: Implied in your analysis is that Worley is, if not better than or even equal to, at least very close to equal to KK as a starter. Simply put, the Phillies, even in the short-term, are not going to throw out a starter they think is much worse than KK for two to three starts. Worley has to be at least close to the starter that KK is for even your short-term decision to make much sense.

Of course, given that, the arguments are at least defensible that $2.45M was too much to spend on insurance when you had a very similar insurance policy available for the league minimum, AND that more expensive insurance policy (KK as starter) you were only ever willing to claim in specific circumstances (a starter goes down for a long time).

Basically, the question is whether the marginal gain between KK and Worley over time, discounted by the percent chance that the scenario where you actually start KK takes place, is worth the money.

It's an open question, to me.

Clout: If your theory is that KK is a set middle reliever now, then you have to answer the question of whether paying him $2.45M to be your 7th reliever was the correct decision.

I'm guessing you think that was the right decision, but most people on here seem to have said that KK's salary is justified by his being an insurance policy as a starter, which is a much different role.

clout/theory - 100% agreed.

Which is why I think Kendrick's ability to start is overvalued since his role is now a middle reliever.

Here's the only explanation I can think of for why we'd call up Sardinha over Kratz. It's hopefully only for a few days & both guys will have to clear waivers when we go to ship them back. Sardinha is much more likely to clear waivers than Kratz and, if he doesn't, it's no great loss.

If Ruiz were going to be out for an extended time, I'd guess that Kratz would get the call.

Jack: KK is more than an insurance policy. He's the middle reliever replacing Durbin, who, as I recall, made $2.1M last year.

Your blind hatred of Kendrick for making you look like a fool for three years now has clouded your judgment. The Phils are paying $350,000 more for middle relief than they did last year, which is a drop in the bucket.

Durbin's market value was $800k in 2011, not $2.1M

Heather,

I read stump's book and came away with the opinion that he was maybe not a bad guy like a criminal, but a pretty miserable SOB.

If you're interested in him, he did an autobiography. It's old, the guy died many years ago, and I don't know where you would get it other than somewhere like Abebooks.

But it's actually pretty much in depth for that type of thing, and he gives his side of some of the things that happened to him like guys sawing his bats in half when he was a rookie, him attacking a fan with a weapon, etc. It may have been totally self serving based on what Stump had to say, but it gave you a different side to the guy for sure.

Iorecore: No, Clout's logic is that if you overpaid a guy the year before, that makes it justifiable to overpay a guy this year. That makes sense, right?

Oh sweet - so if we give a mediocre left fielder a 3yr/$25M contract this offseason, we'll be saving arond $5M!

alright done with KK.

I am not a fan of his, and one of the reasons is because i think he is overpaid because his value as a spot starter is overvalued and his performance is easily replaceable.

If he pitches near a 3.00 ERA - regardless of his periphials - in around 65-70IP this season then I will regret calling him overpaid.

That is all.

I know it is very early, but it is interesting to compare Ben's production with Werth's so far ....

Werth (23 games) 3 errors
.233 7 2b 4 HR 7 RBI 15 R 20 SO 2 SB
Francisco (24 games) 2 errors
.261 3 2b 4 HR 16 RBI 10 R 15 SO 1 SB

3 Errors is actually the league lead for OF. OF Errors aren't a very telling stat, but def not a good sign.

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