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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

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Repost from last thread:

BAP - DPatrone said the Phils aren't hitting pitchers they should. Bud Norris is an example of a pitcher they should've hit and they did. His point is invalid.

I predict runs. For the Phillies.

Jack: "Guys, Amaro told us that Raul had almost as many RBIs as Werth last year, so it would be no big deal losing Werth. The offense would be just fine."

Ibanez 2011 RBI: 10
Werth 2011 RBI: 2


Free Mayberry!

Well Mayberry has been freed. See if he can do anything against a junk-dealing Narveson.

From the last thread: BAP~ Thank you.

Red Burb~ You don't obviously. I said basically that we've lost to guys we should hit and didn't hit against. Bud Norris is a guy we should hit and did. We're SUPPOSED to do that to a pitcher like him. For the most part, we haven't. That's it. There's was and is nothing to debate about the losses so far. End of story.

Let's we handle our business today and Cliffie cranks up a good one.

So, to sum up the last few hundred posts, the saviors of this sorry-assed team are Stutes and Dom Brown.

What could possibly go wrong?

RedBurb: The Phillies hit Bud Norris. Therefore, there is nothing wrong with their offense. Got it.

The job of the offense is to score enough runs to win the game, which the Phillies have done 10/16 (62.5%) times. I will take that.

***What could possibly go wrong?***

We'll continue to ride our strong pitching to 101 wins (our current pace)?

Continuing to win only 60% of our games is completely unacceptable. At this rate, there's no way we win the division by 20 games.

clout: Stutes, Lidge, Brown, Utley, and a corner outfield trade acquisition.

Interesting to see how the Phils' do today against a pitcher with good offspeed stuff including a really good changeup at times. Plus he generally has pretty good control. Kind of pitcher who just has given them fits the last year or so.

John Mayberry, Sr. = Pride of Panama.

Seriously though folks, enjoy your 4-20 at the ballpark or wherever you are. As a conservative, I say without reservation that if all alcoholic drinking was replaced with an "herbal alternative" the world would be a much better place. Short of that, just let me pick my poison without having to worry about going to jail!

BAP~ Thank God for a voice of reason.

"Interesting to see how the Phils' do today against a pitcher with good offspeed stuff including a really good changeup at times. Plus he generally has pretty good control. Kind of pitcher who just has given them fits the last year or so."

Exactly. And if we get only 2 hits again today, what is everybody gonna say? That we are in a slump or admit this offense could be in trouble?

"Kind of pitcher who just has given them fits the last year or so"

Make that the last DAY or so :(

DPatrone - I think you are beating the drum a bit hard but if Lee gives up 3 runs today he is going to be on the hook for an 'L' Not margin for error today.

Hexy- I second that non-sequitur.

Phils have faced Narveson only once (last year on May 15th in Mil)

L, 5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 9 K

Ibañez:

16 G 63 AB 9 R 14 H 19 TB 2 2B 0 3B 1 HR 10 RBI 5 BB 0 IBB 17 K 1 SB 0 CS .222 BA .290 OBP .302 SLG .591 OPS


Werth:

14 G 55 AB 9 R 11 H 21 TB 4 2B 0 3B 2 HR 2 RBI 8 BB 0 IBB 13 K 2 SB 0 CS .200 BA .302 OBP .382 SLG .683 OPS


Once again, comparing their stats makes me feel slightly better about the world ... Slightly.

We'll be fine. We all know that Rube will make a mid-season move to help the offense (or get another starting pitcher as he sometimes just does that for no real reason). We have enough cash for that and we have plenty of prospects to trade if necessary.

If Dom Brown pans out this year...great but we dont need to count on it.

Utley will be back and he will be productive. Even if he gives us JUST an .832 OPS (his number last year while playing hurt), that's a significant upgrade on our offense.

If not for the 40 man roster issue, I'd bet that Stutes would have been brought up over Zags. Everyone knows Zags is terrible...but he was on the 40 man and he's LH. He wont pitch any meaningfull innings.

Herndon is a complete atrocity and he should be dropped to AA or AAA immediately.

Gtown: So Werth has been better at everything except happening to hit with runners on in front of him?

Do you think maybe the RBI difference has to do with Werth batting 2nd and Ibanez batting 5th/6th?

BAP - Oh I forgot that I said the Phils offense was fine due to them hitting Bud Norris. Thanks for putting those words in my mouth.

My point isn't that the offense is great or that the offense is horrible. It also isn't to say they don't hit guys they should. I'm just combating DPatrone's "the sky is falling" attitude he seems to bring on here.

Utley's .832 OPS last year would currently have him 5th in the NL overall...instead of Valdez's 8th place.

NEPP: There was no 40-man roster issue. They had an open space for Stutes, didn't they? Or did I miss something?

Werth has had 31 PA with either RISP or Men On...he has ZERO RBIs to show for it. Both of his RBIs are from solo shot HRs. Ironically, his OPS is higher with both RISP and Men On this year but he's basically either hitting weak singles or taking Walks.

Red: Neither DPatrone, nor anyone else, ever said that all crappy pitchers stymie the Phillies every single time. The point was that it happens far too often. Pointing out that we hit Bud Norris doesn't change that.

***There was no 40-man roster issue. They had an open space for Stutes, didn't they? Or did I miss something?***

Nevermind then...I thought they were full up.

Adding Stutes to the 40-man roster definitely presents all sorts of problems. It might cause us to lose an indispensable piece like Brian Bocock, Drew Naylor, Brian Schlitter, or Carlos Rivero.

Jack: Since when has being slightly better than Raul Ibañez been cause for congratulations?

We gave Brian Schlitter back to the Cubs because he was apparently damaged goods...the whole trade/waiver pickup was voided by the MLB office due to that issue.

I'm fascinated by "shoulds" as in "they should beat this pitcher". Is baseball so simple that "here is the list of teams they should beat and here is the list of teams they shouldn't". It's just preposterous.

NEPP: Funny, because he still shows up on our 40-man roster on MLB.com. It just shows that he's on the 15-day DL.

I'm not saying Ibanez is a better offensive player than Werth, but bringing up Amaro's quote about RBI is probably the last thing someone should mention when they are trying to make a point about our offense slumping due to the loss of Werth/struggles of Ibanez.

GTown: It's not, at all.

I don't care what Werth does, except for pointing out that Amaro pretended like our offense was going to be fine this year because Raul drove in as many runs as Werth last year.

That's so obviously wrong as to be classified as either an idiotic or a clearly disingenuous comment. Anyone who thinks that Raul and Werth are equals as players is an idiot.

SeASoN=OvEr

We Can't Hit, can't get to anything in the outField, we have No BullPeN and we're on pace for over 100 WinS!.

Remember for the past few yrs we were happy at .500 come June???? Settle down Dudes its a long SeASon

***Funny, because he still shows up on our 40-man roster on MLB.com. It just shows that he's on the 15-day DL***

It just happened like 2 days ago...they probably haven't updated that list yet. JW even mentioned it on one of the posts.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/brian-schlitter-returned-to-cubs.html

Iorecore: It's not about their RBIs, is my point.

If you measure a player's offensive worth by RBIs, you're dumb.

Jack: I agree w/ you, but I also don't believe Werth would be doing any better if he were still in Philly, & this offense would have basically the same problems it has now.

The offense is averaging just under 5 RPG so far, on pace for 800 on the season and 5th in the NL. If they keep scoring at this pace, they will win over 100 games and be well-positioned to take the pennant come October. I predicted (and would be happy with) 4.5 RPG, so the offense is actually overachieving slightly, IMO (especially without Chase).

Could you imagine if both the dudes that post at Beerleaguer-Chicago were as manic as the masses here? Losing 6 in a row to fall 5 games behind Cleveland! Comcast's servers would combust and we'd be marching on CBP with pitchforks.

Here we go w/ the Runs/Game thing again ...

Head. Asplode.

Speaking of crappy starts...look at how "well" Adam Dunn is handling his transition to the both the AL and the DH role:

.162 AVG/.662 OPS with 7 BB/17 Ks in 45 PAs.

He does have 2 HRs & 7 RBI to go with it at least. Still, that's not exactly cleanup hitter production.

You know, I think we could do fairly well if we average only 3 runs per game...I mean, with our great starting 5, we should still be golden.

Gtown: I'd feel a lot better about the offense going forward if Werth were in the lineup as opposed to Ben Francisco or Raul Ibanez.

He might've struggled so far, but I would bet every dollar I have that he hits better than both those guys from today through the rest of the season.

The700Level (via Twitter): "The Phillies robot bounced in the first pitch. A smattering of boos for the weak artificial intelligence."

Charlie's still gonna run him out there again tomorrow, though.

RB~
I'm not saying the sky is falling. I'm saying that the losses we have incurred are not aganist upper-echelon starting pitching, which is true. You have lost this debate, so drop it.

You misunderstand the whole premise here. Let me explain it to you. The offense is not as good as in past years, the loss of Utley notwithstanding. Therefore, we have to win more games relying on our pitching. Based on our rotation, we can do just that. But in order to do that we still have to score runs. So to put it how even you can understand it, we have 6 losses. To starting pitching that I would rate from mediocre to slightly above-average. Furthermore, if Doc only gives up 1 run last night, guess what? We still lose 1-0. I'll not debate this any further with you. It's not worth it.

I know the Phillies aren't a "cheap" organization anymore but their determination to do things like keep Herndon on the roster last year, and Martinez this year, as well as keeping Baez and KK in the majors is either dumb or cheap.

NEPP: You're joking about the "we'd be fine only scoring 3 runs a game" thing, right?

Average is just about the shittiest description of a population statistic. You really need it with a SD or it's next to worthless.

"If you measure a player's offensive worth by RBIs, you're dumb."

How about, "if you measure a player's offensive worth solely by RBIs, you're dumb."

***NEPP: You're joking about the "we'd be fine only scoring 3 runs a game" thing, right?***

Yeah, I was referencing some poster that made that comment a couple weeks back.

Old Phan: Sure, that's better. RBIs count a little bit in terms of how much value players have produced in the past (but tell you almost nothing about the future). Even still, they're below plenty of other things even descriptively.

Last year, Werth was FAR better than Ibanez despite having pretty equal RBI totals.

I'm glad you spelled it out for me and declared yourself the winner DPatrone. Just stay off the ledge brother.

Surprised no one mentioned the dreaded Business Person's Special which the Phils generally lose at a very healthy clip . . .

I am going to go ahead and preemptively declare myself the winner of all future debates.

RBI shows the production of what a player ACTUALLY did. At the end of the day, I'll take more R/RBI over a better OPS/WAR.

The higher OPS/WAR maximizes a players chances to record runs and RBI, which is what you want to do to your lineup/roster as much as you can, but in the end, only R and RBI show up on the scoreboard.

I'd rather be lucky than good.

"Surprised no one mentioned the dreaded Business Person's Special which the Phils generally lose at a very healthy clip . . ."

too many painful memories...trying to suppress !!

Actually I was at a BPS 2 or 3 yrs ago agains the Brew Crew. We lost. But some dude streaked on the field. And I missed it coz I was in the john !

Iorcore: Do you think maybe Ibanez's RBI total had something to do with Werth's high OBP in front of him? Maybe?

This game feels like a loss.

1-0: game=over

Arrrrrrgh

I happen to believe that whether a player should be judged more on OBP/OPS than, say, HR/RBI has a lot to do w/ his position in the batting order. But that's basically a moot point when the entire lineup is bereft of offensive production of any kind.

The BAbip fairy is just f@#king with us now.

Yes, players have more RBI opps than others. should always weigh a players rbi per rbi opp.

Unless the numbers are extreme, it's hard to really judge any hitter based on one stat out of context.

Victorino is awesome.

Watching on Gameday today, while trying to do some work. Gameday made it sound like those 3 hits were kinda cheap, but it also made it sound like a couple of the outs were kinda hard hit.

Old Phan posts the truth. Wise is he.

Over/under Fielder infield singles this year: 1.

I like how GTown has become Yoda.

"I'm not saying the sky is falling. I'm saying that the losses we have incurred are not aganist upper-echelon starting pitching, which is true... So to put it how even you can understand it, we have 6 losses. To starting pitching that I would rate from mediocre to slightly above-average."

DPatrone - so according to your logic, the Phillies SHOULD be 16-0, because they have lost only to mediocre pitchers. I get it now.

In the time it took me to type that last post, the Phillies already had their first 2 outs in the inning. And I type 95 words per minute.

That was a REALLY easy inning. It's just going to be one of those stretches, I guess. I really shouldn't have gone into work so early so I could get out in time to watch this game.

I sneezed and just like that bottom of the inning was over.

b_a_p: Mavis Beacon?

BAP, is that GROSS words per minute???

G-Town: Nope. My mom.

quincey - The debate is over. DPatrone has declared himself the winner. There is no arguing the point.

Another early deficit and getting robbed in the field....

SEason=OvER

Gomez and Braun are "Standing on their Heads" in this series

Am I the only one whose Gameday Game Summary log freezes up after every half inning? It has been happening to me all season.

That thing on Wilson Valdez's chin is icky.

My Gameday keeps freezing, too. Probably made in China.

phargo... that's his playoff beard. he wanted to get one in before the season was officially over. if they keep up with these 10-6 stretches, it'll be over before you know it.

Forget RBI: I'm concerned that we're supposed to judge BAP's posts solely by WPM. Talk about ancient stats... What's your xCPS?

Ben Francisco may be just as bad as Ibanez right now.

Mick: A small confession: my high WPM rate has been disproportionately achieved as a result of easy words. When I have to step up and type longer words, my rate goes down.

I'd say watching this offense was like watching turtles f*ck, but someone actually posted a vid of Terrapene copulation to Twitter recently, & quite frankly the parties involved were far more lively than this group of Phillies.

Casey McGehee is going to develop shoulders problems after today's game.

I miss Milt Thompson.

Can those turtles play the corner OF positions?

Shane Victorino: "This is my turd truck from Winter Ford Cherry Hill."

Changeups are kyrponite to this lineup especially Vic . . .

Gameday says the MIL has a 57% chance of winning right now. It feels more like 100% to me.

A crafty LHP, with a good change-up, that will hardly touch 90MPH over the course of a game...how the hell did they hit this guy before? This is exactly the type of pitcher than kills them. A Travis Wood-type.

Matt, I chuckle every time that ad is on.

Did Wheels just say that?

A high number of plate appearances means you don't walk much???

Suck it, Ricky.

b_a_p: Some might argue they already are.

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