as someone from the earliest age had his cheeks pinched (although I was quite svelte as a child and there is quite more to pinch in my late 30s) i have to giggle at this header.
My last defense: I saw an argument that Rollins' numbers againt RISP should be used to determine his lineup position. It was a bad argument, because even with a career of PAs, the numbers weren't really all that different in a statistical sense. I added that there are other reasons why RISP numbers are not directly comparable to Bases Empty numbers. The bottom of the order was a red herring, but it's what made me think of the pitching quality issue. It, as has been pointed out, makes no difference. The point, as bap states well, is that there is a difference in the pitching quality with RISP. It is in general easier to get a hit with RISP for any hitter for that and a number of other reasons. So Rollins' RISP numbers are a poor reason to decide where to place him in the order.
That said, 3rd is probably an ok place for Rollins to hit. He's probably the 4th or 5th best hitter on the team, and those should go in the 3 and 5 spots, according to the "The Book."
Larry, my RISP argument wasn't that it made him a great #3 hitter so much that it shows that he's not finished as a hitter as was Jack's premise. He can clearly still hit and hit well on occasion. He's always been a guy that rises to the occasion so to speak.
I guess if you want to make that argument I'd say look at his overall numbers. They're not so good. His RISP numbers just don't say much. Also, it isn't clear he rises to the occassion. His clutch numbers don't really show much of an occasion riser over his career or the last three years.
I just don't like these partial performance arguments, so I jumped in to refute it. Didn't realize I'd get clouted for my trouble.
I don't care what Raul's past numbers vs. Wolf are, replacing a RHB w/ a RHB was dumb. Not splitting up Howard & IbaƱez in the batting order was even dumber.
At the risk of incurring clout's ridicule . . . could Matt "The Answer" Rizzotti really be appreciably worse on defense than the two stiffs we regularly send out there to play the corner OF positions?
The reason I ask is that these 2 stiffs who are playing the corner OF for us also happen to be pretty poor on offense, whereas Rizzotti just continues to hit at every level he plays.
Since they're totally incapable of scoring more than 3 runs in a game, the Phillies needed Halladay to be at his dominant best. So far he's nowhere close to that.
I can't tell yet if Halladay is in the process of tossing a dud, or if he'll settle in and keep it to a couple of runs. In any case, he won't be at his dominant best every time out. Offense needs to do its share and pick him up. Early yet, we'll see how it shapes up.
Braun is a disaster in the field but man can he rake. He had a 'down' year last year and still had a line of .304/.365/.501 with 25 HRs and 103 RBIs. Best hitter in this lineup by a wide margin.
Now that Howard moved closer to the plate, the new book on him is to bust him up and in. He swings and misses every time. If he can adjust to that he'll be a real force, but until he does, he'll just be neutralized time and time again.
Tonight people were right that Halladay was getting squeezed early. McCelland pisses me off with his amazing minuscule strike zone. Probably the toughest ump in MLB to get a strike called.
The upside is that Doc is the kind of guy that could very well still throw a CG with that number. I remember a game last year where he did that and then pitched the final 5 innings in like 40 pitches.
I haven't seen too many posts from CJ lamenting me (or others) for overly aggressive pessimism regarding this offense.
I really could stand an injection of "they'll be among the NL leaders in runs scored" again. Anything will help me feel better about this.
On the other hand, we've officially reached the point where I feed the dog, grab something from the fridge, etc. during the offense half of the innings. I can't remember it ever being that way with the Phils for as long as I've been alive...
Any chance for a delay? Can't get out of work til 8 and I hope to see most of Roy's outing. It's raining pretty steadily in central PA.
Posted by: Iceman | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:15 PM
After seeing that picture I'd like to turn the other cheek
Posted by: Old Phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:17 PM
Weitzel... you kill me... "pinchable cheeks"...
as someone from the earliest age had his cheeks pinched (although I was quite svelte as a child and there is quite more to pinch in my late 30s) i have to giggle at this header.
Classic.
Just
Classic.
Posted by: HammRadio | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:18 PM
My last defense: I saw an argument that Rollins' numbers againt RISP should be used to determine his lineup position. It was a bad argument, because even with a career of PAs, the numbers weren't really all that different in a statistical sense. I added that there are other reasons why RISP numbers are not directly comparable to Bases Empty numbers. The bottom of the order was a red herring, but it's what made me think of the pitching quality issue. It, as has been pointed out, makes no difference. The point, as bap states well, is that there is a difference in the pitching quality with RISP. It is in general easier to get a hit with RISP for any hitter for that and a number of other reasons. So Rollins' RISP numbers are a poor reason to decide where to place him in the order.
That said, 3rd is probably an ok place for Rollins to hit. He's probably the 4th or 5th best hitter on the team, and those should go in the 3 and 5 spots, according to the "The Book."
Posted by: LarryinLA | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:20 PM
And I thought that Polanco's head was enormous in last night's header...
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:20 PM
Needs more PhillieBot.
Posted by: the_berger | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:28 PM
Hopefully Zagurski's family does a Print Screen on that graphic as it will likely be the only Game Chat graphic he ever gets.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:45 PM
Larry, my RISP argument wasn't that it made him a great #3 hitter so much that it shows that he's not finished as a hitter as was Jack's premise. He can clearly still hit and hit well on occasion. He's always been a guy that rises to the occasion so to speak.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:46 PM
NEPP:
I guess if you want to make that argument I'd say look at his overall numbers. They're not so good. His RISP numbers just don't say much. Also, it isn't clear he rises to the occassion. His clutch numbers don't really show much of an occasion riser over his career or the last three years.
I just don't like these partial performance arguments, so I jumped in to refute it. Didn't realize I'd get clouted for my trouble.
Posted by: LarryinLA | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 06:59 PM
lIt's Roy Halladay time, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls!
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:07 PM
This Halladay kid can sure pitch.
Posted by: Old Phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:08 PM
Why do I feel like Jimmy could have fielded that a couple years back?
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:09 PM
Great throw Chooch!
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:13 PM
Feels like a win...
Posted by: Wes Chamberlain | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:14 PM
Good thing Halladay got out of that mini-jam because my tea leaves tell me that Randy Wolf will be dealing tonight.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:14 PM
Chooch on his game so far.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:15 PM
JW: what software do you use to create those pseudo engravings of faces?
Posted by: Fan From Fifty | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:16 PM
I used to really like Wolf...until he used us two years in a row to run up his price on the free agent market.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:17 PM
Remember when Vic used to actually bunt for hits on occasion?
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:17 PM
NEPP, prescient much?
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:20 PM
Excellent, J-Roll.
Posted by: Old Phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:21 PM
That's what Vic should have done.
Nice job Jimmy!
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:21 PM
I'm proud of Jimmy. After going 0 for his last 11 or so, bunting is a good way to break out of it.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:22 PM
Oh good. Now Raul can bat.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:23 PM
Bunt single and then a great AB to draw a walk...things are on the up and up.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:23 PM
Don't understand why you'd even start Ibanez, let alone bat him right after Howard.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:24 PM
If you were any pitcher on earth, would you pitch to Ryan knowing Raul is behind him?
Especially with 2 outs.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:24 PM
Can't catch up that 90 mph cheese, Raul?
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:25 PM
Best thing Raul can do is just keep the bat on his shoulder.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:25 PM
What a weak swing on the fastball there.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:25 PM
Raul blows.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:26 PM
I don't care what Raul's past numbers vs. Wolf are, replacing a RHB w/ a RHB was dumb. Not splitting up Howard & IbaƱez in the batting order was even dumber.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:26 PM
I see Raul was listening to Charlie.
Posted by: Dave S | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:27 PM
I'm sure Raul's past numbers are from when he wasn't a washed up shell of a player. I'm also sure that that doesn't even occur to UC.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:27 PM
Roy Halladay is an absolute joy to watch pitch. I can't get enough of him. Nice play by Polly.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:30 PM
Routine, boring scoop.
*yawn*
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:30 PM
Does Howard even have an error this year?
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:30 PM
Is the worst player in baseball getting a double off the best pitcher in baseball a sign of the apocalypse?
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:31 PM
Good job by Mayberry to get over there...and he didn't even kill Vic.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:32 PM
b_a_p: No, but I'm sure he'll commit his first any minute now. Thanks, jinxie.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:32 PM
1-0, Milwaukee. Game = Over.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:33 PM
BenFran would have made that throw.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:34 PM
Mayberry did flash his good arm strength though...I'll give him that.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:34 PM
This doesn't really look like Roy Halladay in his most vintage form.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:34 PM
I'd like to repeat my comment from last night about how Pitch/fx is making the umps look dumb
Posted by: Oliver | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:36 PM
BOOOOOOO!!!!!
We want BenFran!!!
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:40 PM
Nice catch.
Posted by: Old Phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:41 PM
Im here, roy looks to be getting squeeze d
Posted by: Kilbillrain | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:41 PM
Gomez has incredible range.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:41 PM
Every time our pitcher performs less than perfectly, the Beerleaguer consensus is that it's the ump's fault.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:42 PM
First really hard hit ball in days, and it hangs up just a bit too long. Ahh, the tortures of a baseball season.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:42 PM
For those of you keeping track that's 21 straight innings w/out an XBH for the Phillies.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:42 PM
At the risk of incurring clout's ridicule . . . could Matt "The Answer" Rizzotti really be appreciably worse on defense than the two stiffs we regularly send out there to play the corner OF positions?
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:44 PM
The ump's have been blatantly conspiring against us for 4 years now.
Posted by: curt | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:44 PM
Considering Rizzotti is a below average 1B defensively, I'd guess that yes, he would be a downgrade from our corner OFs.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:45 PM
The reason I ask is that these 2 stiffs who are playing the corner OF for us also happen to be pretty poor on offense, whereas Rizzotti just continues to hit at every level he plays.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:46 PM
Those extra-base hits are coming any day now. Annnny day now.
I hope all the people who wished for small ball for the last few years are happy. Do you get it now?
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:47 PM
Doc has thrown 9 changeups...5 have been swinging strikes.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:48 PM
This team is in desperate need of an injection of a healthy Chase Utley into the lineup.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:48 PM
Braun is good.
I wonder what it would be like to see a home run for our team. Man, that would be nice.
Posted by: Jack | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:48 PM
Crap.
Posted by: Old Phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:49 PM
Doc seems to be struggling...for him anyway.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:49 PM
Darn, looks like we might lose this series.
THE END IS NIGH!
P.S. I miss Chase Utley.
Posted by: Dave S | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:49 PM
Jack: You're confusing "small ball" w/ "utter ineptitude". The Phillies have been engaging in the latter, not the former.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:50 PM
Since they're totally incapable of scoring more than 3 runs in a game, the Phillies needed Halladay to be at his dominant best. So far he's nowhere close to that.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:50 PM
Hell be luck y to get thru 6
Posted by: Kilbillrain | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:51 PM
2 runs, 6 hits so far through 3 innings.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:53 PM
XBH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
....
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:54 PM
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:54 PM
Holy Sh*t. An Extra Base Hit. :-o
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:54 PM
We're allowed to keep running past 1B when we get a hit?
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:55 PM
Shane didn't want to get his pants dirty?
Posted by: Phantom Limb | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:55 PM
A .500 average with runners in scoring position is definitely sustainable.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:55 PM
I can't tell yet if Halladay is in the process of tossing a dud, or if he'll settle in and keep it to a couple of runs. In any case, he won't be at his dominant best every time out. Offense needs to do its share and pick him up. Early yet, we'll see how it shapes up.
Posted by: Bob | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:57 PM
Wolf just doesn't look the same since he shaved his beard. Just looks like Ron Howard now.
Posted by: krukker | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:57 PM
JRoll = double play
Posted by: Phantom Limb | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:58 PM
Pop Out, Walk, K.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:58 PM
Time for the heart of the order to actually be the heart of the order.
Posted by: krukker | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:59 PM
Braun is a disaster in the field but man can he rake. He had a 'down' year last year and still had a line of .304/.365/.501 with 25 HRs and 103 RBIs. Best hitter in this lineup by a wide margin.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:59 PM
Just ridiculous.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:59 PM
Ugh. Snakebit.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:59 PM
Unreal. Looked just like Ibanez out there.
Posted by: Phantom Limb | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 07:59 PM
J-Roll, pretty nice swing.
Posted by: Old Phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:00 PM
Of course he gets to that.
Raul would have been 40 ft from that one and we'd be tied.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:00 PM
Not much you can do about the plays by Braun and Gomez so far in this game.
Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:00 PM
Tough break for J-Roll and the Phils. Two great plays on bombs hit by the Phils; the Brewers are finding the holes thus far. Hang tough, guys.
Posted by: Bob | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:01 PM
McCelland isn't giving any calls to either guy but that's not unusual. He's a stickler for calling strikes.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:01 PM
Now that Howard moved closer to the plate, the new book on him is to bust him up and in. He swings and misses every time. If he can adjust to that he'll be a real force, but until he does, he'll just be neutralized time and time again.
Posted by: krukker | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:02 PM
Well, it looked like it could be a promising inning. This is getting frustrating.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:02 PM
Tonight people were right that Halladay was getting squeezed early. McCelland pisses me off with his amazing minuscule strike zone. Probably the toughest ump in MLB to get a strike called.
Posted by: MG | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:04 PM
This game is really aggravating.
Posted by: Kutztown Fan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:04 PM
Nice catch by Exxon.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:05 PM
4 IP, 64 Pitches. Ugh.
Posted by: GTown_Dave | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:09 PM
GTown: Halladay's pitch count is the least of my concerns right now. We have Zagurski waiting in the wings.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:11 PM
The upside is that Doc is the kind of guy that could very well still throw a CG with that number. I remember a game last year where he did that and then pitched the final 5 innings in like 40 pitches.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:12 PM
Man, Doc gives up 2 runs through 4 innings, and isn't on pace to complete the game, and people get upset.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:12 PM
Raul late on an 87 mph "heater"
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:12 PM
I haven't seen too many posts from CJ lamenting me (or others) for overly aggressive pessimism regarding this offense.
I really could stand an injection of "they'll be among the NL leaders in runs scored" again. Anything will help me feel better about this.
On the other hand, we've officially reached the point where I feed the dog, grab something from the fridge, etc. during the offense half of the innings. I can't remember it ever being that way with the Phils for as long as I've been alive...
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:12 PM
Raul sitting fastball and still late on a 90 mph fastball.
Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:13 PM
how bad is raul? BAD, BAD, BAD
Posted by: Slocs | Tuesday, April 19, 2011 at 08:14 PM