Double-A prospects turning the corner in Reading

In Reading, several prospects who appeared overmatched or out of sorts last summer have returned to form. Most impressive to date: Phillippe Aumont, Austin Hyatt, J.C. Ramirez and infielder Cody Overbeck. Beat writer and friend to Beerleaguer, Mike Drago, provides his take:

"Aumont was just not comfortable in his new role as a starter last season, and everything snowballed on him. He’s back in the bullpen and a completely different guy this season, much more confident and throwing the ball the way the Phillies envisioned he would when they traded for him. He again looks like a prospect who could fill a role in the bullpen within the next year.

"Hyatt was the Florida State League Pitcher of the Year last season but by the time he got to Reading he was gassed. He’s got more zip on his fastball now, and more command, and looks like a much more polished pitcher. At this early juncture I’m not sure how good he can eventually be, but he does have some value for the organization.

"Ramirez was pitching hurt most of his time in Reading during the second half last season. He didn’t know it at the time but he had a torn labrum in his right hip and it prevented him from delivery comfortably and at full velocity. He’s recovered nicely from offseason surgery and, like Aumont, looks like the top-level prospect they expected to receive in the Cliff Lee trade. Definitely should be able to help the big club sometime within the next 18 months.

"Overbeck struggled his first two months in Double-A last summer but began to turn it on in the final month, and showed plus power. Through the first two weeks of the season he’s been the best hitter in the Eastern League, and leads the league in homers, RBIs and slugging. However, the Phillies have moved him to first base, and it’s hard to say how much value he’ll have over there. The organization has few, if any, legit third base prospects, so his move across the diamond is telling.

"Matt Rizzotti has been tearing the cover off the ball, just as he did here last season. Again, his future within the organization appears to be limited. He can only play first base, and isn’t strong there with the glove. So, his value to the Phillies would seem to be as trade bait. His bat is lethal, however, and you’d have to think some American League club would have interest."

Mike Drago covers the Reading Phillies for the Reading Eagle newspaper and contributes his Double-A report for Beerleaguer from time to time.

Comments

[Jbird]

Most commentators I've seen have postulated that Ramirez will windup in the bullpen eventually.

[Bay Slugga]

Rizzotti cleared waivers a few weeks ago, I don't think two weeks of baseball is changing anyone's mind on him.

I think he could have some trade value in June or July, but not much.

[NEPP]

Ramirez doesn't have good enough secondary stuff to be a starter long-term.

Aumont progressing would be very nice.

[NEPP]

I think Rizzotti's upside as a hitter is in the Greg Dobbs/Ross Gload range...but with way worse defense.

How much value does that really have?

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Hyatt's a little intriguing. He's been a bit of an older prospect at each level, but had great success. His FB isn't electric, but he gets K's. Could be a bullpen piece at some point.

[NEPP]

Hyatt got a lot more interesting when his fastball went from 87-88 mph to 91-92 mph.

Velocity isn't everything but it sure as hell helps.

[NEPP]

How annoying is this:

Greg Dobbs as a PH:

2011: 3 of 7, 4 RBI
2010: 6 of 49, 4 RBI

Dobbs will have to go 3 for 42 to equal his mark with us as a PH last year.

Ridiculous.

[Bay Slugga]

NEPP: That is why pinch hitting is so volatile. You are dealing with a small sample size, and in 49 ABs anything can happen.

I'd like to see if there is anyone who has had sustained success across multiple seasons pinch hitting.

Can someone be a better pinch hitter than they are a everyday player? My brain is telling me no.

[Jbird]

6-49 is a whole level unto itself of hitting ineptitude. You could almost swing at random and luck into more than 6 hits in 49 at bats.

[NEPP]

I remember Tim Raines being a really good pinch-hitter but that could just be a faulty memory.

[NEPP]

Just looked it up...Raines was actually a terrible PH. That shows just how reliable 15 year old memories can be.

[Dull]

Hard to believe that Ramirez can make it in the Bigs unless he can come up with some kind of strike out pitch. Watched him Sunday and he had none. In his last two starts, one strike out combined at the AA level will not get it done at higher levels. Overbeck and Rizzotti have nice swings but no other tools needed to play in the ML. Where would they play? They won't make a major league lineup card anywhere other than maybe first base or DH. That won't help the Phils. Hyatt might make it as a reliever but usually runs out of gas in the middle innings as a starter after several turns through the lineup with that fastball/change up repertoire. And Aumont clearly is a major league prospect and will make it with his nasty stuff out of the pen.

Another guy to watch as a MLB prospect at Reading is outfielder Derrick Mitchell. He has shown me all five tools when I have seen him play. Saw him climb the left center field fence end of last season in Clearwater to bring back an apparent home run ball. Saw him take Roy Oswalt out to right center at Ashburn field in a spring training minor league intrasquad game. And saw him on Sunday in the second game of the doubleheader hit two frozen ropes both to left, one a home run to tie the game and then in extra innings a line drive single after which he score the winning run in the 5-4 win. And last year he was one of the Phils top minor leaguers in stolen bases and outfield assists.

[Jack]

Reading also has a couple prospects who can actually, you know, play a real position on defense, in Galvis and Harold Garcia.

[Scotch Man]

Rizzotti for Soria works for me

[Hexy'sBaldSpot]

The Phillies need to have anyone who can rake from Clearwater on up trying their hand at playing the corner outfield positions and promoting them aggressively if they can do it. Anyone who is limited to 1B/DH isn't going to help the major league team.

The pitching on this team is built to win this year and next, but the odometers are running on the hitters, and I see that being a problem this year and only getting worse. The Phillies became a competitive franchise from 06 on because they built a nucleus of hitters from within. It's time for some turn-over from within.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

Galvis would fit right in with the Phils all defense, no bat approach to the middle infield.

[Heather]

"I'd like to see if there is anyone who has had sustained success across multiple seasons pinch hitting"

Stairs?

I guess it depends what you mean by success over multiple seasons. Some years Stairs was very good, some ok, some kinda bad, but overall you can look at his career as a PH and say it was good.

[NEPP]

***Hard to believe that Ramirez can make it in the Bigs unless he can come up with some kind of strike out pitch.***

When his slider is on, he's got one. The big problem with him is that its so inconsistent.

On Galvis & Garcia: Both are good defenders (Galvis is fantastic actually). Galvis doesnt hit and Garcia has zero power (but can hit for average).

[Heather]

Rizzotti has a good bat from what I've seen. He has some power, and he also has plate discipline.

Seems like he'd make a decent PH. Doesn't that have some value to the Phillies? They already have all defense guys on the bench. Why not one all offense guy? A good bat in late innings would be a pleasant change.

[NEPP]

I'll rephrase that on Garcia...he has very little power but that is completely okay for a middle infielder. He could be an okay MLB 2B if he continues on his current developmental path.

[NEPP]

***Seems like he'd make a decent PH. Doesn't that have some value to the Phillies? They already have all defense guys on the bench. Why not one all offense guy? A good bat in late innings would be a pleasant change.***

UC would never use a rookie in that role. We'd more likely acquire a guy like that for the playoff push like we have with Stairs in 08 and Sweeney last year. Otherwise, he'd clog up a bench spot as he can only play 1 position (1B) and we have a guy that starts 160+ games there typically.

[Edmundo]

"Dobbs will have to go 3 for 42 to equal his mark with us as a PH last year."

And that's not doable because?

[Hexy'sBaldSpot]

And I've mentioned it before, but it is of fundamental importance to this franchise that Domonic Brown is as advertised. They need some cheap players and they need some outfielders who can hit.

[bay_area_phan]

I'm already trying to figure out how a lineup can have 4 left-handers in it, which is what the Phillies figure to have 2 or 3 years from now, when Brown is an everyday lineup fixture & Singleton is ready for the major leagues.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I agree about Brown. I'd like to see him get healthy, have a good 150AAA ABs, then bring him up.

[Iceman]

BAP- it might seem LH heavy, but we'll be splitting them up with Evan Longoria.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I thought it was David Wright.

[NEPP]

I wonder how long it will be till they decide to trade Wright? He's basically blamed for everything wrong with the team by the fanbase (which is pretty sad considering).

[DPatrone]

I would love to see Wright or Longoria in the peppermint pinstripes. I'm wondering if Rube could pry Wright away from the Muts this year. I thinks he makes a big ticket though. Not sure if he would fit into the budget.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I'd think Alderson would ask for the moon+ for Wright to be traded to the Phillies. Just wouldn't happen.

[Iceman]

I would love to see Wright here, but I don't think there's any way the Mets trade him to a division rival. Although they are pretty desperate, so I assume the time to make a play for him would be now. Get Singleton on the line and tell him to spike the payroll again.

[Jbird]

Longoria's deal is soooooo team friendly that he isn't going anywhere for a long, long time. David Wright on the other hand. . . As long as he doesn't wear that gigantic helmet, I could support that deal

[NEPP]

The Mets would NEVER trade David Wright to Philadelphia. It simply isn't gonna happen.

[curt]

As always, we'll be lucky if 1 of these "Double AA prospects" ever actually makes the big club any better.

[Jbird]

curt- if only one makes it, my money's on Aumont as a middle reliever.

[RedBurb]

I agree DPatrone. I would love to see Wright here in Philly. But to get him away from the Mets you would have to give them 3 of your best prospects I would think.

[R.Billingsly]

I agree that Wright will "NEVER" be traded to Phillies. I can't think of one scenario where that deal would make sense. The Phils don't have the payroll flexibility, the Mets won't take on a bad contract so the Phils could make some room, the Mets would want a ton in a trade (and rightfully so), and so on and so forth.

It just doesn't add up. I could definitely see the Mets trading him at some point, but it will certainly not be to Philadelphia.

[curt]

Not sure what we'd do with Wright -- our #3 hitter is on pace to drive 9.5 runs in this year.

[R.Billingsly]

curt: but that 0.5 RBI will come at a crucial time in September, and we'll forget all about his April.

[NEPP]

Say we traded for Wright this summer...where does he play? Do you toss him in LF? We have a 3B and a 2B already. You put him in LF and suddenly his value plummets. As a 3B, his offensive production is elite. As a LF, its good but not great. I suppose we could trade Polly but I dont know that Urgueth Urbina is out of prison yet so who could we possibly get?

[bay_area_phan]

Considering that our present left fielder is Raul Ibanez, I'd say David Wright would have considerable value in LF. Although, it seems to me that it would make more sense to put Chase in LF & move Polanco to 2nd.

[Jbird]

NEPP: well, Uggie's kid, Juan Urbina is a prospect in the Met's system so you just make it a package deal: Polly, Rizzotti, & cash Considerations for Wright & Urbina. Sounds fair to me.

[Jack]

I love the idea that we don't have room for David Wright because we have a 3B and 2B already.

Our 3B is Placido Polanco (a nice player, but nowhere close to David Wright) and our 2B is currently restricted to light jogging in the outfield and may have a chronic knee problem (not to mention a declining OPS that no one wants to talk about).

Yeah, I think we'd make room for David Wright just fine. We could handle it, please.

[curt]

"it would make more sense to put Chase in LF "

Perhaps, if we were talking about the Special Olympics...guy's only got one wheel.

[R.Billingsly]

NEPP: In the unlikeliest of scenarios that Wright is acquired, he would play 3B and Polly would play 2B. I'm in the camp that Utley will never be "Utley" again and he will either be moved to the outfield or traded. I do not trust the Phils whatsoever when it comes to injures. And if the reports/rumors on Utley's condition are to be taken as true, his condition will not allow him to play at an Utley-like intensity for a long period of time.

My thinking is this: If the Phils do somehow trade for Wright (or sign/trade for a top tier 3B), they know Utley's injury is severe and that he won't be able to play 2B much longer.

*FULL DISCLOSURE* I have no facts to back up anything I just wrote. Just gut feelings when taking all facts and rumors into account. I'm writing this so that my opinion isn't called "wrong". It's my opinion, take is as such.

[DPatrone]

No wright's not coming here, but it is a nice thought. I am wondering who'll be brought in though. I'm sure somewone will be. But I think it'll be a 2nd-tier inexpensive guy, probably RH.

Raul appears to be done and Benny Fran is showing why he's a bench player. While Polly and Vic saved the day yesterday, they still didn't have a hit until Mayberry's double, I believe in the 5th. That's a tough way to play ball.

That was the whole premise of my arugements yesterday considering they have faced the best pitching yet.

But I do believe RAJ will make a move and it'll be a help. Getting Utley back will help also. I could see Mini-Mart going back to the Gnats and Belliard being brought up. At least he's has some pop from the right side. He can also play 2nd or 3rd. At least he used to be able to.

[quincy.mcneal]

NEPP: I would think Wright's career norms will still be "great" production, even in LF. If we ever got 30 HRs and a .300 AVG out of a LFer in a Phillies uniform, you can bet he'd be called great by the majority of posters here.

[Dennny Bones]

John Vander Wal was a much better pinch hitter than every day player. You could argue the same for Greg Gross.

[NEPP]

Speaking of beat writers...do you think Andy Martino regrets moving back to NY:

BY Andy Martino
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

Originally Published:Tuesday, April 19th 2011, 10:45 PM
Updated: Wednesday, April 20th 2011, 3:15 AM

Frank Franklin/AP
David Wright makes a diving tag on the Astros' Carlos Lee.

• Jon Niese shuts down Astros as Mets' bats wake up in 10-3 win

• Mets baffled by Oswalt in shutout loss

• Mets clobber Cubs 18-5 in best offensive display in five years

• Dickey does it all as Mets beat Astros

• Mets lose Reyes, drop series to Marlins

• Mets drench Pirates in rain-shortened win

•
Blah blah blah blah rain blah blah blah Niese blah blah Astros blah blah Mets got spanked. Blah blah, 6-1. We really don't know what else to tell you about this one. But we will try:

It was cold and wet at Citi Field, and the Mets flatlined for one minute shy of three hours against one of the worst teams in baseball. Actually, now the Mets (5-12) are worse than Houston - and the rest of the National League - as they slipped below the Astros (6-11). Could there be a less stimulating April ballgame than the one between these sorry opponents? The only appropriate word is blah.

We are not going to tell you much about Jonathon Niese, who was not very interesting. Nor will we say much about the Mets offense. They did nothing, save for a Carlos Beltran home run against Wandy Rodriguez, the lefthander who brought these career road numbers into the game - 5.12 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 24-39 record - and manhandled the Mets.

It seemed for a while that Niese's struggle would give us all something to discuss, particularly after his previous two starts.

Following a seven-inning, two-run win in Florida during that opening weekend that seems so long ago, Niese dropped a pair of games, first in Philadelphia and then at home against Colorado. His fastball would lose its rhythm, in part a result of Niese's rushing his delivery when faced with adverse circumstances.

Tuesday night's game seemed headed that way, as Niese allowed runs in the first and fourth innings, but he recovered and left with a decent line of six innings, two runs (although he did issue five walks). His self-assessment was worse than the result.

"I really didn't have a very good feel of anything," Niese said. "The grip on the ball was kind of rough. I couldn't make an adjustment a lot of the times. My body just didn't feel good."

He later clarified that he was not injured or experiencing any pain - just feeling blah.

Forget the particulars of this lousy night. Wait, no. We have to tell you about the ball that Scott Hairston dropped in the seventh. The poor guy had already struck out twice when Carlos Lee lofted a fly to deep left with a runner on first. Hairston went back, back, and then bumped into the wall as the ball popped out of his glove. Yeesh. And Hairston is batting .179, with 12 strikeouts in 26 at-bats.

"Like a lot of guys right now, he's trying to make a big difference by trying to hit a homer," manager Terry Collins said.

"That's pretty accurate," Hairston said. "When things aren't going well, you try to do too much, and we're all trying hard."

One more: Bobby Parnell came in with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth, fumbled the ball, and balked in a run. He then allowed a two-run single, and announced after the game that he was experiencing numbness in his middle pitching finger, and needed further medical attention.

Including Parnell, the bullpen allowed three runs - a common issue with these Mets. "We've got to stop it. I'm very concerned about it," Collins said. "Late in the game, we just keep giving up big numbers, and it's killing us."

The big picture, though, is more important than the details. The Mets could hardly have produced a more dispiriting beginning to a home stand that represented an opportunity to rise back toward respectability. With six games against the Astros and Diamondbacks there is a chance to keep their games a little bit relevant for a little bit longer.

They did not simply lose Tuesday night; they were dead. Which leads one to wonder who they can beat, if they can't beat the worst.

Blah.

[bay_area_phan]

Positional scarcity is a misused concept. Positional scarcity tells us that good hitting 1st basemen & corner outfielders are a lot easier to find than other positions. So, if you're a GM who's thinking about signing a 1st baseman or corner outfielder to a long-term contract, you might want to stop & consider whether your resources might be better spent elsewhere.

OTOH, if you're a GM or manager who is trying to put the best 8 men on the field, or improve over what you already have, it makes no sense whatsoever to say, "But if I put David Wright in LF, he won't have as much value." WGAS what his value is? You're not trying to trade him. You're trying to use him to improve your team.

[NEPP]

Dont get me wrong on David Wright...I'd love to have him on the club but wouldn't it make more sense to target a guy like Justin Upton so we dont have to move 2 guys from their defensive positions? If we're gonna pay through the teeth for someone (and we'd have to massively overpay for Wright), lets get a premier OF.

[bay_area_phan]

Not to mention that, if you put David Wright in LF for one season, it would probably only INCREASE his trade value, since we already know he can play 3rd base & now he'd be demonstrating that he can play the OF, as well.

But this discussion is kind of academic, since we won't be acquiring David Wright and, if we ever did, he'd be playing 3rd base for us.

[NEPP]

***"But if I put David Wright in LF, he won't have as much value." WGAS what his value is? You're not trying to trade him. You're trying to use him to improve your team.***

Its cheaper to just go get a 25 HR (and that's what David really is) LF than pay through the teeth for a 3B and then toss him out there. Why overpay?

[NEPP]

bap, I dont think anyone has concerns over a good 3B's ability to play a lesser defensive position in LF. Lots of guys have made that transition with little including Ryan Braun & Chipper Jones for guys we've recently played.

If we're gonna give up top prospects, go after guys like Ethier, Kemp, Upton, etc to fill a NEED instead of going after a guy that plays a position we already have filled.

[bay_area_phan]

NEPP: Guess I misunderstood your initial point. I do agree with you that it would be cheaper & easier to find a corner outfielder who can hit 25 homeruns than it would be to trade for David Wright (which obviously ain't happening). The only real question is whether, with Blanton still on the team, the Phillies could find the money to trade for an experienced outfielder. It will either require some creativity, like with the Oswalt trade, or it will require them to loosen the purse strings a bit more than they may have contemplated.

[Heather]

I would think a guy like Willingham would make more sense for the Phillies as a trade.

He's a "B" level outfielder, right handed bat. I doubt the Phils are going to overpay which is what they'd have to do to get someone like Wright or Kemp.

[NEPP]

I could definitely see us getting a guy like Willingham...assuming he stays healthy this year (a long shot given his history). I dont see us having the cash to make a major trade and I dont think that Rube wants to empty the farm system out anymore as we're basically maxed out on payroll as it is and we need some cheap talent in the next few years.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

A's just got him, so not sure they'd just flip him back this way, but they do think outside the box.

[Cipper]

Rube is slick. I expect him to trade for every BEST player at their respective decision by the trade deadline. WFC or bust!

[donc]

Rube is the Prince of Darkness. I expect the ghost of Babe Ruth to be in right field by the allstar break.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

They might be able to get Morse from the Nats for Rizzoti and Goosewich at this point.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morsemi01.shtml

[donc]

Was at the game yesterday. I was really startled at how many people that go to these BPS's don't watch a minute of the game. There was a constant stream of people coming and going, even more than I remember. It made it hard to watch the game. I know when you sell out every game you inherently get a lot of people that aren't really fans, but it was really pronounced at a day game. I hadn't noticed it previously. Anyone else notice this phenomenon during day games?

[Andy]

I am disappointed that Overback, now that he's finally hitting, has lost a major amount of value for the Phils be turning out to be a 1B and not a 3B. Playing 3 instead of 5 raises the bar on how much power he needs to show, meaning his improved hitting is, basically, a static "move."

[philwynk]

Regarding pinch hitters, I remember a guy named Jerry Lynch from my childhood in Pittsburgh. Lynch played for the Pirates during the 1950s and 1960s, with a hiatus to Cincinatti from 1958 - 1963. He was something like Pat Burrell, a leftie outfielder with lots of power but no speed and no glove, only more reliable at the plate, I think. He has the Major League record for pinch-hit home runs at 18, and had a reputation as a reliable pinch-hitter. Baseball-reference.com has him with a lifetime .267 average as a pinch hitter, compared to a lifetime .277 average as a player overall.

For the record, Lynch's own testimony is that Smokey Burgess, the Pirates' regular catcher in the 1960s, was a better pinch-hitter than he was.

[John]

Morse isn't really any better than Ben Francisco, is he?

[Andy]

NEPP - You need to make longer posts. That 11:46 job could definitely have been, ya know, expanded a little.

BUT: the Staten Island newspaper had a local writer talking about last nights game and said that struggling on a homestand against the "dregs of the Central division" (Houston), and the "dregs of the West" Arizona, has only proven that they are the "dregs of the East."

Funny stuff.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

No, it was sarcasm, which doesn't come across well.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

sarcasm b/c Nats GM reportedly asked for Dom Brown in return for Morse.

[MG]

All the talk about Wright (who will never be here) and no talk about Reyes?

Utley has a future . . . and it unfortunately is as a DH. It kills the Phils they can't move him to DH this year to have his bat in the lineup.

Wouldn't it be hilarious at the ASB if Rube triples down on pitching (reliever) especially if Lidge flames out in his comeback later this summer? We have learned that Amaro believes in making bold moves and isn't afraid to bolster areas that are already considered strengths if it is the best option available to upgrade his team.

[MG]

There isn't a ton of potential MLB-caliber at Reading again this year (really only Hyatt, JC Ramirez, Aumont, DeFratus among the pitchers & Garcia is the only real positional player) but they should be an overall decent team.

I am just as interested to see the renovations to the ballpark and generally how Mark Parent does with the team. He's a guy who supposedly the Phils' brass thinks very highly of.

[MG]

donc - It happens a lot during BSP or Sunday day games. On Sundays, there are lots of people with little kids which adds to the amount of people getting up/down.

[clout]

This pinch-hitting discussion has come up in the past. What we found is that, given enough PH ABs, a player's PH numbers are very close to his non-PH numbers.

The smaller the number of PH attempts, the wider the variance.

If you're looking at someone's career, I'd say anything under 450 PH ABs is rather worthless. It would be like looking at half a season of Ryan Howard and concluding he's not much of a player.

[EastFallowfield]

What, no Beltran talk?

[MG]

clout - I always thought that a hitter's career PH numbers were usually lower than his overall numbers due to the fact that often PH hitters face an unfavorable split matchup & relievers.

[Dave S]

On Garcia: he actually has passable power for a middle infielder. His big problem is that he strikes out too much and doesn't get enough walks, which might get exposed in the ML.

Reading is an interesting team to me, because it's filled with guys I can see as future bullpen pieces and possible bench players. I'm not sure that any one ends up as a starter, but if things go okay more than a few of those guys could get a cup of coffee (doesn't necessarily help the Phillies).

[Jack]

Clout: You're right about PH sample sizes. Way too small. 450 seems like an OK cut-off point.

So what are your thoughts on the last 1200 PAs for Jimmy Rollins? Can we draw any conclusions there?

.248/.305/.401 for an 86 OPS+, in his last 1194 PAs.

[clout]

NEPP: "Its cheaper to just go get a 25 HR (and that's what David really is) LF than pay through the teeth for a 3B and then toss him out there."

Exactly right. And that's the significance of position scarcity. Wright's value IS his position.

[clout]

Jack: Rollins injury is what throws a monkey wrench into those numbers.

Remember, he had 5 very good years in a row followed by one bad year, followed by one injury-wracked year in which he only had 350 ABs.

Let's see where he ends up this season before we declare him washed up. (Although we can only hope he's as productive as other players declared washed up by Beerleaguer posters.)

[Jack]

Clout: Yes, we can only hope that he puts up numbers like "washed-up" Ibanez (a .583 OPS this year) and "washed-up" Jamie Moyer (an 84 ERA+ before getting injured last year). That certainly is the dream.

Also, recall that the discussion about Rollins was about him hitting in the 3-hole because he's a "good" hitter, which means positional scarcity has nothing to do with it. Characterizing a 5-year stretch in which he had 4 seasons that were exactly at 100 OPS+ as "very good" is being especially generous there, no?

As a pure hitter (ignoring position), Rollins has had one very good season in his career. One.

[NEPP]

Are we really talking stat lines as if they mean anything 3 weeks into the season?

Really?

[NEPP]

Get back to me on June 20th (around Game #65 usually) about measuring stats. Until then, its all just fun banter.

[NEPP]

****Characterizing a 5-year stretch in which he had 4 seasons that were exactly at 100 OPS+ as "very good" is being especially generous there, no****

For probably the best defensive SS in the game during that stretch? Yeah, that IS good offensive production.

[clout]

MG: There's probably some sabermetric study on it somewhere, but all I did was take 10 guys who I knew would have 450-500 Career PH ABs and look at their numbers. They were very close to career lines. Three guys I remember looking at were Lenny Harris, Smokey Burgess and Manny Mota. I forget who the rest were.

The key here is sample size. Making conclusions on guys who only had 200 PH ABs is worthless, IMHO. The quality of pitching a PH faces evens out once you get that many ABs.

[bay_area_phan]

"I always thought that a hitter's career PH numbers were usually lower than his overall numbers due to the fact that often PH hitters face an unfavorable split matchup & relievers."

I would think the opposite is true. Pinch hitters tend to be used specifically because there is an opposite-handed pitcher on the mound. True, the opposing manager sometimes counters with a pitching change but, when that happens, the pinch hitter very often gets lifted for someone else.

[Jack]

NEPP: No question.

Except you're changing the terms of the debate. The discussion is about Rollins as a hitter. In fact, you started it by saying he should be in the 3-hole because he's a "good" hitter. Lineup position has nothing to do with what position in the field you play. I specifically said NOT adjusting for position (and certainly not adjusting for good defense at that position).

You wanna argue he was one of the top offensive SS during his prime? Sure. Of course. You wanna argue that he's right now a "good" hitter? You're wrong.

[MG]

Things that puzzle me:

How some (including Bill Baer and those over at Good Phight) can grouse night and day about KK's performance especially after he struggled the other night and to a lesser degree about Baez but largely not say a word about how horrific Herndon has been?

Then the topper is that they mention how the likes of Mathieson or De Fratus could simply be brought up to replace a KK/Baez with a strong likelihood of an improved performance.

[clout]

Jack: You're off on your timing.

Moyer and Ibanez were declared washed up long before that. In fact, you even said KK couldn't possibly have a major league career 3 years ago. When he finally fails, you'll proclaim yourself correct however many wrong years you had, just like the washed up predictions became correct for Moyer and Ibanez -- years later.

[NEPP]

Jack, you responded to a comment from clout, not my comment from 5 days ago. Still, I say he is probably still a good hitter and will show that as the season goes on.

[NEPP]

****Lineup position has nothing to do with what position in the field you play****

Can someone please relay this message to UC.

[clout]

Jack: Not even someone as dumb as you would try to remove position when discussing Rollins offense. Position is everything when evaluating offense.

[clout]

I say we declare June 20, "NEPP Day."

[NEPP]

I second that.

[Jack]

Clout: When evaluating lineup position? I don't really think it is.

If you're talking about his value generally, of course. I absolutely believe in postional scarcity, and if you ignore that in many respects, you're an idiot. No question. We're on the same page there.

I apologize if we had miscommunication. But my comments about Rollins were made implicitly in response to NEPP's comment that he was a "good" hitter, and thus should be hitting #3.

Do you think that where Rollins hits in the lineup should have anything to do with his offense relative to position? I can't imagine you do.

[bay_area_phan]

Actually, what was Moyer's ERA+ if you throw out that 1-inning, 9-run abomination last year? If I recall, that added like .70 points to his ERA, which creates a misleading picture of his overall performance. In actuality, he pitched pretty well last year -- certainly better than either KK or Blanton.

[NEPP]

bap, if you take out that one performance, it drops his ERA from 4.84 to 4.15 so I'm guessing it would raise his ERA+ up to around the 100 mark.

There is no way that I know of to get B-R.com to calculate ERA+ like that...at least with a free account.

[Jbird]

Rollins is still a good player b/c of his defense. I'd like to see a little more of the season before deciding he's now a mediocre hitter. His current OPS puts him 17th in the bigs (so middle of the pack) but I'd say his defense is much better than a few of the guys ahead of him. As an aside, Hanley Ramirez has an OPS only .035 higher than Jimmy and his defense isn't even close, so perhaps reservation of judgment is prudent.

[Jbird]

*17th among mlb shortstops

[Jack]

JBird: Rollins is still a very good defender, and thus a valuable SS. No one on here questioned that in any way.

[Jbird]

Derek Jeter's got a .516 OPS so he must be even "doner" than J-roll

[Shawn]

Wasn't the original question about whether or not Rollins should be in the 3 hole? He's almost an automatic out at this point.