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Monday, March 14, 2011

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The "case" Stutes is stating is, "I'll be headed to AAA, but if I continue to pitch well, I'm available if needed. I figure I'll be a September callup if things go right and factor me in to the 2012 bullpen. This is all assuming my Spring Training performance so far carries over into the start of the season."

With Utley likely starting the season on the DL and Dom Brown there too- I see Mayberry and Young each making the team with the possibility of Barfield too. Hopefully they aren't foolish and keep Martinez.

Martinez was a nice idea back when the Phils were unsure of their CF depth. But now that Valdez is there, and Sullivan further down, Mayberry and Ben Francisco can both play it, they'll cut Martinez soon, and if they lose him, no big deal.

CJ has nailed it. Stutes has done everything asked of him and more, but the truth is, there is no place for him on the 25 man without injuries.

My take is that if we suffer an injury to a starter, Worley is called up to take KK's long man spot, and KK moves into the rotation. If a reliever is injured, Herndon is called up. If we lose two starters, Stutes will be called next, likely taking the long man spot with Worley moving into the rotation.

so lidge is hurt again...

lets just say i'm probably drafting madson as my fantasy closer.

The article says the Phils have plenty of bullpen options if Lidge has to be shelved. Other than Madson, uh, what are they exactly?

Well, I think they mean Madson takes Lidge's place and everyone moves up a spot, with one of the young guys taking the lowest slot. Not awe inspiring, by any means.

I asked this on the previous thread, but no one responded. Hopefully someone knows the answer, because it could possibly save us around $2M.

According to Murphy, Kendrick's contract isn't guaranteed until the start of the season. It mentions there is a termination pay if he is released, and they'd be off the hook for the remainder of the contract. It's unclear to me whether he would still receive the full $2.45M if he's sent to AAA before the start of the season. Anyone know?

Granted, KK probably makes the team regardless because he's one of the 12 best pitchers we have, but I would like to have all the facts.

Krukker- Kendrick's contract is not a split contract, so regardless of which roster he's on (Phils or Iron Pigs), he's still making $2.45M.

krukker: I can't imagine the Phils are that interested in saving $2M that they'd pull that kind of move. I'm fairly certain they only save the money with an outright release... not with a demotion.

This was my suspicion as well; the original article was just unclear. Thanks guys.

For now the 3rd consecutive year I guess Lidge's self-made roclamation that he was '100% healthy' didn't turn to be 100% true.

As least you know why his fastball has generally been pretty pedestrian in the mid-80s.

David Murphy reports:

Brad Lidge stayed in Clearwater to nurse a case of biceps soreness, but Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said the condition is normal for the veteran closer and that he is not in jeopardy of missing Opening Day.

"It's nothing," Dubee said before the Phillies' Grapefruit League game against the Astros.

-------------

I guess we'll see!

You need look no further than yesterday's game to find Brad Lige's replacement. If Ryan Edell has the mental fortitude to enter a spring training game with the bases loaded & proceed to get out of the jam, he has the mental fortitude to close the 7th game of the World Series.

Lidge hurt again?

What a shocker.

If Dubee says its nothing, I believe him. Its not as if the team has a history of downplaying injuries.

Projected Timeline:

Mar 14: Lidge reports Bicep soreness
Mar 15: Lidge reportedly held out of pitching exercises as precautionary measure
Mar 21: Lidge reports no improvement on bicep issue...flies back to Philly for evaluation
Mar 22: Lidge undergoes MRI on bicep and elbow...tendonitis diagnosed
Mar 26: Lidge receives cortizone injection in throwing arm
Mar 31: Still no improvement. Lidge placed on 15 day DL

NEPP - Yeah that is the thing with Lidge. He is basically has a left knee has had multiple surgeries on it since '07 and has had elbow issues the past 2+ years now.

'Enigma' describes Lidge's health status and his likely performance this year.

BAP - Baez has been lights out in ST. They should sign him to an extension while they can

Does Lidge do any throwing in the off-season? He is seemingly behind the curve every single Spring as a result of arm issues and velocity drops.

NEPP - In Lidge's defense, this was the first offseason in a few years where he didn't have a major surgery to recoup from. Sure that hindered his offseason workout regimen the past couple of years.

In regards to the impending Braves Dynasty...

Who's on 1st?
CF?
RF?

The phillies drafted well and our prospects panned out. The phillies were then able to acquire top FA's who were attracted by the success of the core group of players, CBP, and a FO willing to spend.

The Braves have 1 out of 3 and have always scouted well, but until they can attract key FA's with a new ballpark and/or find some money to spend...I don't see it

Question to the masses:

Is this team better off with Lidge on the DL for most of the year/entire season or an erratic Lidge who gives the Phils an up-and-down performance this year?

I'm guessing they'll keep Heyward in RF...

LF? (I always get those confused) But you get the point. The sky is falling in S Philly, but the Braves have holes in their everyday line-up

I think they're tossing Prado out there this year. Prado is a very good 2B but his bat doesn't play up in a corner OF role. Although, I wouldn't mind if one of our corner OFs hit .330 this year.

Schmitty: Freddie Freeman, their 1st baseman of the future, is one of the better prospects in baseball & only 21.

I do see some holes in the Braves' future lineup, though. Alex Gonzalez is purely a stop-gap and, after Chipper retires and Prado (presumably) moves to 3rd, I'm not sure who will play LF. And, of course, Lowe & Hudson won't be good forever. The Braves' continued success will depend on how well they anticipate & address these issues. But, then, you could say that same thing about just about any good team.

Schmitty: Yeah, that really crushed the Braves in the 90s and first half of the 00's.

I mean, they only won 14 straight division titles. Imagine what they could've done if they could attract some FAs.

Jack - 1 Chip = Dynasty?

NEPP: Prado has an OPS+ of 118 over the last three seasons. Raul has an OPS+ of 122. If his bat doesn't play in a corner OF spot, neither does Raul's. Or Francisco, for that matter, who has a 105 OPS+ over that time.

Carson, the Phillies have 2 chances to release K without paying him, or at least there are 2 dates involved.

I posted it here a couple of months ago, but I don't remeber the exact dates. I think the second one is 10 - 14 days before the satrt of the season. If they release him then they owe him something like 45 days termination pay.

It's not a reassignment to the minors either - it's an outright release, so he'd be an FA. As KK is capable of starting elsewhere in MLB (Hello Nats, Mets, Pirates, etc.), do you really see him resigning with the Phillies for less money? he'd be gone, and they'd have nothing for him except for a few bucks saved (ok, more than "a few"). Why not at least try to trade the guy and get 'something' for him?

However, I really don't see this happening. With Utley on the shelf and the offense likely to be affected, this team is even more reliant on their starting pitching than previously, as run suppression becomes even more important.

So what that means is that unless they got a decent bat in return in return for either KK or Blanton, with the possibility that one of the SP goes an the DL for at least a short period, having reliable, proven DEPTH in the rotation will, I believe, outweigh any desire to reduce salary at this point.

But, again, if they can get a decent bat...

Schmitty: The "dynasty" in the article was referring to the division. Anyway, what matters to the Phillies is who wins the division, not if another team happens to win in the playoffs after that.

Pretty sure 14 straight division titles = Dynasty.

Schmitty: Anyway, you're sort of attacking straw men. Who on Beerleaguer said anything about the Braves being a future dynasty? What people said was that they have a good young nucleus and should be good for a long time.

So now Ibanez is a good LF? Good to know.

NEPP: Eh. As long as he doesn't fall off a cliff, and if he's given days off against tough lefties, Ibanez should be passable, but not really a big net positive considering his position. But if we're assessing the Braves' chances against the Phillies, calling Prado a "weakness" in a corner OF spot only highlights that the Phils have "weaknesses" at BOTH corner spots.

Jack - It does to us, because we play in the NL East, but now that they are 2nd best at best, that run of 14 straight will always be remembered for not winning, not for winning (see what I did there)

And they actually did get some top players via free agency. Maddux wasn't too shabby

It will be interesing to see which young guy winds up being the better player - Freddie Freeman or Ike Davis?

When you get down to it, the idea that a player's bat is good enough for one position, but not for another, is an idea that only makes sense in the context of an open market. When you're actually trying to put together a team with the players you have, or evaluate a particular team's lineup, the idea becomes nonsensical. Would the Braves' lineup be improved if Uggla and Prado switched positions, allowing Prado to play a position to which his bat plays better?

bap: Considering Prado is better defensively? Actually, yes.

But your point is sort of right. It makes sense when you have a prospect who is only an average hitter and can only play 1B that he's not really a prospect. Because over the next however-many years, somewhere you can find a 1B who can hit better than average.

However, in a 1-year circumstance, if that guy is your best 1B, he's your best 1B, and you go with what you got. If he provides some good pop, he's a net positive, regardless of the fact that over the long-term, he's a huge opportunity cost and net negative in terms of marginal value.

awh - I'd add Gaby Sanchez to your discussion as well. All 3 have the chance to be above-average 1B for a long time, but all 3 could also become the next Mike Jacobs.

Jack, vs. LHP in 2010 Ibanez: .268/.309/.419, 191 PA


Ben Francisco 2010 vs. LHP: .284/.344/.557, 96 PA
Lifetime: .267/.347/.460

So, Ben looks to be an upgrade, but will Mayberry be an upgrade?

Mayberry's on base skills don't get any better against LHP: .279/.295/.628, [44 PA - smpl sz allert] but he does SLG well against them, and he is a defensive upgrade. However, he still K's at a high rate, having fanned 13 times against only 1 BB.

I wonder how much Charlie will really rest Raul against lefties. You know how much he likes veterans.

Jack: My question was vague but I meant from an offensive standpoint. I do actually wonder why the Braves didn't try moving Uggla to LF, since Prado is a decent defensive 2nd baseman, whereas Uggla is terrible. Eventually, I would guess the Braves will make that switch.

krukker, I forgot about Sanchez. You're correct, he belongs in the discussion as well.

Krukker and awh: My impression was that in terms of reputation coming up as prospects, the order would go Freeman, Davis, Sanchez.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

awh: I don't trust that small sample size with regard to Mayberry against lefties.

Are minor-league splits available? If so, I would use those for Mayberry.

Yo, new thread.

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