Latest Phillies rumor carries outfield implications

Jayson Stark says the Phillies have shown interest in Cardinals lefty-hitting outfielder Jon Jay with hopes of adding depth to the roster.

Jay, who turned 26 yesterday, hit .300/.359/.422 with four homers in 323 plate appearances as a rookie last season, posting a .791 OPS against right-handed pitching. Blocked by Colby Rasmus, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, he's expected to become the Cards' fourth or fifth outfielder, having played every outfield position a season ago. Baseball Prospectus calls him "an incomplete player who isn’t quite rangy enough for center or quite powerful enough to start in a corner.”

Beerleaguer: I totally get this. Stark says "insurance for Victorino," which makes a lot of sense, but there's more to the story. He's an affordable, controllable body who's ready for the majors as the Phillies prepare for life beyond Raul Ibanez. By now, the team must think they can get something useful out of Ben Francisco or John Mayberry or both against lefties at the very minimum. Make this move and Francisco and Mayberry will never need to see a nasty hook from a right-hander if the Phils can help it. Meanwhile, the Phils can truely take their time with Domonic Brown, who they'd rather see assume a full-time role or nothing at all. Add Jay, and the Phils can eye Ibanez's 2012 exodus as Brown's estimated time of arrival, when they will hopefully hand him the car keys to left field entirely.

Jay doesn't have Brown's ceiling, but he has several projectable assets to suggest the Phils could do worse than having him start a few games against right-handed pitching, or fill in for Victorino during his inevitable 15-day trip to the repair shop. In other words, he would become the '11 version of '09-'10 Francisco. I actually like that he's a lefty bat. Imagine an all-righty Sunday lineup, plus Ryan Howard and a healthy Chase Utley, against, say, J.A. Happ, with Mayberry and Francisco staring down a true fastball for a couple of turns, and when the Astros turn it over the 'pen, the Phils are locked and loaded with a couple of lefty options in Ibanez, Jay and Ross Gload.

This revelation doesn't do much for Delwyn Young's stock. On paper, Young's versatility plays favorably, but when the wheels meet the road, I don't get a sense - from having listened to the telecasts - that Young can be trusted to play the game at a high enough level. Jay reportedly does the little stuff well.

Comments

[Cole Handsome]

The Phils were interested in Mike Morse for the same role (assuming that Francisco could play some center), but the Nationals wanted Domonic Brown in return (just to show you that Rizzo is one of the worst GMs to deal with)

[bay_area_phan]

What's the love affair with all these singles hitters who don't walk?

[J. Weitzel]

FWIW, I've read a couple reports that say his CF glove is average or above.

[bay_area_phan]

I can't get too excited. He was a .300 singles hitter in the PCL, so maybe he'll be a .280 singles hitter in the majors. He doesn't walk a whole lot & isn't a great base stealer. Oh yeah, and he's left-handed just like all 3 of our top OF prospects & just like 3 of our mainstay players for the next 5 years.

And, do we really need a 7th outfielder?

[Burt Lavallo, friend to all]

do you have a link?

[awh]

"By now, the team must think they can get something useful out of Ben Francisco or John Mayberry or both against lefties at the very minimum."

JW, I think you're right about that. Also, the interest in Jay, if true, probably means Brown stays at LV until they think he's absolutely ready.

If they did trade for Jay and the OF was Vic, Raul, BenFran, Jay, and Mayberry, they could run a pure platoon out there in both corners with Vic in center.

[awh]

The Fish just released OF Chris Lubanski.

Anyone know anything about him, and is he worth pursuing if Jay can't be had?

[MG]

Somehow platoons of Ibanez/Mayberry and Jay/Francisco doesn't quite summon memories of Inky/Chamberlain and Eisenreich/Thompson.

[MG]

Mean Inky/Thompson and Eisenreich/Chamberlain. Here is what they did in '93;

Inky: 368 ABs .274/.318/.530 124 OPS+
Thompson: 340 ABs .262/.341/.350 87 OPS+
Eisenreich: 362 ABs .318/.363/.445 117 OPS+
Chamberlain: 284 ABs .282/.320/.493 116 OPS+

Francisco is a 105 OPS+ guy and maybe a 110+ OPS guy if he faces LHP pitching most of his ABs.

Ibanez could be a 115-120 OPS+ guy this year if he used properly (mostly faces LHP and gets his share of rest so he only plays 140-145 games this year). If not more of a 105-110 OPS+ guy.

Issue is how much production the Phils can bet from Mayberry and if Vic has a bit of a bounce back year.

[goody]

Late to the game as usual. Pessimists may seem like the majority of POSTERS,but READERS are probably more on the optimistic side like me.
People are more likely to post pessimistic comments on a blog than positive ones. I'm not getting into the 97 wins argument,but I think everyone would agree that we make the playoffs,and that's all that matters.

Phils usually have a golf tournament in Florida. If today was their only off-day,I would think it was today. No news of anyone falling out of a golf cart,getting hit by a golf ball,or losing a hand to an alligator retrieving a golf ball is probably good news.

[GM-Carson]

Jon Jay has okay wheels and has always hit for a good average, albeit with very little extra base power. I wonder what it would take to get him.

[cut_fastball]

Good stuff, or just blarney from the Dean of Philadelphia's (old-school) Sportswriters? Conlin’s annual prognostication is 100 wins:

Conlin's annual Phillies prediction

He also stated that based on a 10 mph loss in velocity, Lidge is a shot pitcher with little hope of a bounce-back, and Utley’s knee is arthritic (this just in…). I agree with the last 2 statements. Regardless, it’s hard to believe we could start the season with 2 journeymen in the infield and are scuffling for another 4th outfielder.

I am leaning toward a 92-win season, and a steel cage death match with the Braves for the NL East title.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

GM-good question, I'm not sure the Cards would be wild about just giving him away to one of their NL competitors.

[NEPP]

We could offer a situational Lefty and a case of whiskey...that should make LaRussa happy.

[Jbird]

Jon Jay seems like a fine 4th or 5th outfielder. But what exactly would you give up for him. Cardinals aren't just going to give away a cost controlled, useful player.

NEPP- I guffawed.

[Meyer]

I would offer a situational variety case of whiskey with a pair of tumblers.

[awh]

No interest in Lubanski on the board? Has anyone seen him play?

[Jbird]

all I know about Lubanski is that he was a (team) top 10 prospect with KC something like 5 years ago, back when the Royals had a terrible farm system.

[Andy]

b-a-p:
Not sure where you're getting this "doesn't walk" stuff. His MiLB career OBP is .066 above his BA. That seems a tick above average. He is not a power hitter. But in the PCL he had an ISO of .129 by my reckoning. (I'm probably wrong, but my point is) He's not the worst option out there. Whether he holds value will sort of depend on what gets traded for him.

[Andy]

cutter:
If the division hinges on a steel cage match, the Phils better lure Irish Mike Ryan out of retirement as a "bullpen coach."

Just in case.

[Jbird]

Has anyone heard if/when the the Chooch Plush from the Halladay video game commercial will ever be available?

[Pete Happy]

"Jay reportedly does the little stuff well."

Is he also scrappy?

[Jbird]

Pete Happy - well he is white, isn't he? Otherwise, he'd be "athletic".

[J. Weitzel]

Jay is reportedly scrappy, yes.

[bay_area_phan]

Andy: His walk rate is about average. It's certainly not Feliz-Esque, but you also wouldn't look at his stat line and say, "I love the walk totals." When combined with a .300 average, he has walked enough to post a good OBP. But, again, we're talking PCL batting averages. How well will that carry over to the majors?

He's not horrible. You're right that we could do worse. It's just that, when we've got 6 outfielders poised to make the roster, and Beerleaguers are debating whether the last roster spot should go to Pete Orr, Josh Barfield, or Michael Martinez, a middling utility outfielder doesn't exactly strike me as the area we should be targeting.

[GM-Carson]

I watched OF Chris Lubanski play in high school, and he killed the ball. That was 6 years ago or so though.

[Kiko Garcia]

cue the endless jokes about the Federalist Papers...

[clout]

Why would the Cardinals trade Jay? Especially with Berkman as a starter?

Answer: They wouldn't unless they were getting superior value.

How many posters here would be willing to do that?

Answer: None.

[Scarlet Joe Handsome]

I guess the addition of the likes of a Jay wouldn't hurt. I'd prefer a guy that does the big things well but they'll again look at those options near the deadline when teams are more desparate to unload bigger names.

Currently I'm satisfied with the outfield. I see Ben as someone like Victorino or Werth, guys who always had potential but took some time to put it all together to establish an identity. Mayberry seems to be another guy that is just ready to hit the majors, it's his time. He's been a sponge the last few years and has used his sparing AB's and ML experience productively. I look for these guys to be the surprises, like most already do, as Victorino and Werth were when they were first establishing themselves.

[derekcarstairs]

If the Card take on his entire salary, I'd trade Kendrick for Jay.

Jay is not exactly a singles hitter. He appears to have more pop than Polanco.

[clout]

awh: Lubanski was a pretty good prospect 6 years ago. He's a local kid (Lansdale).

He was drafted out of HS in the 1st round, 5th overall, because he was relatively cheap.

He was a big strong lefty with projectible power and decent speed. He had a bit of a strike zone management problem initially, but scouts figured that would improve with experience.

That never happened, although he did show slight improvement the past 2 seasons.

And, except for an outlier season at High Desert (Hmmm, sound familiar?), his power never developed either.

He did have a .899 OPS at hitter-happy Las Vegas last season, but I'd take that with a huge grain of High Desert salt.

He's still only 26, so continued improvement in strike zone judgment could yield a bench job at some point. He's certainly worth a Triple A flier.

[Scarlet Joe Handsome]

Let's say Domonic Brown comes back to the minors and absolutely starts tearing it up while Ibanez quietly puts a modest first half together. Do you think there would be any teams that would want to take on Raul's remaining contact for the second half knowing this is his last year? Is it plausible that a team would trade an infielder, let's say someone like M. Young, at the deadline if a team like the Rangers faulters. You bring Brown up to start in the second half, you get rid of Ibanez's contact who you wouldn't resign anyway and you get infield insurance without increasing the payroll.

Maybe someone like Young isn't ideal if you're trading Ibanez because you want to get younger, but I'm just thinking of above average infielders that could help the stretch run when your infield inevitably will be sore given their age.

Also I'm not even sure Ibanez has value in a trade at the deadline because it's unknown if he will even play next year. The only value he may represent is that the other team can dump salary for a guy that won't resign.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread