Community call for 2011 Phillies season predictions

It's that time again. It's the eve of Opening Day, which means it's time to ask readers where they see the Phillies in seven months. Provide us with your final regular-season record, NL East standing and playoff status in the comments thread below. Tomorrow, I’ll tally the results and reveal my official prediction. Last year, the Berks County Kreskin predicted a 94-68 record and World Series appearance threepeat, and Beerleaguers saw it largely the same way. The Phils finished with 97 wins, but were stopped short in the NLCS.

Comments

[Jusitn Katz]

102 wins, first in the East, World Series win over Sox 4-2

[matt]

92-70.
NL East Pennant by a nose.
Bounced in Division Series because offense can't score.

[meech.one]

119 wins, three, fo', fo'

[matt]

Meech: Hahaha!

[Kdawg]

100 wins, 1st east, def. Twins 4-1 in world series

[MG]

90-72. WC. Stymied in the NLCS.

[MG]

90-72. WC. Stymied in the NLCS.

[Joel]

93-69, first in the East. Reds give the Phillies all they can handle in the NLCS but the Phils prevail. Phillies in 6 game World Series over Minnesota Twins and Jim Thome.

[Cliff]

Ahhh! I hate this thread every year! No way you're going to get me being too optimistic or too pessimistic. Trying to predict this season, with the 4 aces, the current injuries, the potential injuries, the likely trade of Blanton, etc. puts me in a total brain meltdown.

[lorecore]

97-65, #1 seed in the NL.

[Jbird]

93 wins NL East Champs WMFC over Tampa Bay again.

- Braves opening day starter is Derek Lowe. Why are they the trendy pick for the NL East all of a sudden?

[NEPP]

95-100 wins, Win NL East, NLCS and WS.

Everyone else is a bunch of haters.

[Meyer]

A 99 win season with Rollins MVP.

[TK]

98-64, WFC #2, finally, after a long two year wait, beating Beerleaguer cousin White Sox in 6 games.

[Alex]

88 wins, no offense, lots on injuries, no playoffs.

[NEPP]

Ooh...a battle of the Beerleaguers!

Comcast would probably LOVE that.

[lorecore]

oh yea - DOM for WS MVP.

[Tim from Williamsport]

Report from last thread:

I'm looking at 93-95 wins this year and reaching the playoffs. Have no idea if they can win it all, I am leaning toward no if they don't have a healthy Utley back soon. The offense is not what it was and probably will not get back to that point. I could maybe see Rube pulling off a trade for a bat, especially if Utley is still not healthy by the ASB. But then bench is suspect, the lineup is average at best. Just more questions than I thought there would be coming out Spring Training but the starting rotation alone should get this team to the playoffs. I'm still skeptical if they can win the division because the Braves offense is better and probably the BP as well but it should be fun and a rollercoaster ride of a season as usual. I wouldn't want it any other way. Look forward to reading everyones incite into things. I'll be lurking...

[Kutztown Fan]

95 wins. 1st in NL East. They win the NLDS. Struggle in the NLCS but still win. Red Sox beat them in one of the best World Series ever.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

161-1, Sweep through the playoffs, Lee Cy Young, Howard MVP, Contreras Rolaids Relief Man of the Year, GG for Rollins and Victorino, Another baby for Chooch, 20 wins for Lee, Halladay and Hamels, Chalie Manuel Time's Man of the Year, Phillies phans voted best in sports by area blogger.

[Bay Slugga]

88 wins and a Wild Card spot. Bounced sometime early in the playoffs.

This offense will be pathetic when Rollins and Utley are both on the DL.

[Jbird]

Bed's Beard- Boy or girl for Chooch?

[Shawn]

95 Wins, we trade to get back Jason Werth, Abe Nunez, JA Happ, and we take this ish to the promised land. WS or BUST!

foreal though, 95 wins, 20+ game winners from Halladay and 18 from Lee.

We trade for a bat at the deadline, with mr smug smugging on tv with that new player, and mr smug will out smug all smuggers and eat our faces, smugly.

AL MVP: AROD :(
NL MVP: PUJOLS
NL CY: LINCECUM
AL CY: CEE CEE SABATZ
AL ROY: HELLICKSON / PINEDA
NL ROY: B BELT / FRED FREEMAN

GABY SANCHEZ AND THE silly fish will win 88 games, and beat out the STINKIN bravos, who will only win 86 games.

[derekcarstairs]

95 - 97 wins. NL pennant. Lose in 6 games to Bosox in WS (If he is back and playing like Chase Utley for the playoffs, Phils win WS).

[Greg S. in Lanc]

97 wins, first in the East, World Series win over Twins 4-3

[RedBurb]

95 Wins. NL Champs. Lose WS.

[Super Smart Baseball Guy Who Knows What LOOGY Means]

108-54, 1st in the NL East, NLCS winners and WFCs over NYY
Halladay - 2nd straight Cy Young
Brown - R.O.Y.
Manuel - M.O.Y.
GG's - Vic, Rollins, Polanco, Lee
WS MVP - Utley
NL MVP - Howard

Mets - 65 - 97 HAHAHAHAHA

[NEPP]

I wonder what Heath Bell will cost in prospects in a couple months when/if the Padres are in 4th place.

That would be a great trade for us to make. Lidge is cooked. Do we really expect to go through the season with Contreras as the Closer? Also, Bell is in the last year of his contract so the price would be much smaller than it would be if he had a couple years of control. We could easily afford to resign him with the money we save from Lidge being gone.

[The hook]

Phils 95 wins and use vet exp to grind out
The playoffs. Chase makes return may and
Team gets lift from d brown and phils run all
The way down broad street

[lorecore]

Jack: i'll take that bet. Ibanez outhomers BenFran in 2011.

loser has to agree with Will Schweitzer on something/anything. Just once tho, dont want to make this high stakes.

[Shawn]

Is there going to be a "Beerleaguer Day" where all the miscreants and creatures from this blog decide to go to a Phillies game.

I'm not sure if its happened in the past, but I'm sure if it did happen, it would have to have been hilariously bad.

[Jack]

Iorecore: Deal. Those are pretty high stakes, though.

[Dave]

115 wins, first in NL East, World Series Champs over the Yanks in 5 games.

20+ wins for Hamels, Hallady, and Lee. Oswalt will end up with 15 before being traded in late August/early September for a powerful right-handed bat.

CY Young for Hamels. GG for Rollins and Victorino. MVP for Howard with 57 homers.

[Get Rube A Beer]

NEPP: I totally agree on Bell. He's one of the best closers in the game and I would love to have him on the Phils

[Dylan]

96 Wins, 1st Place in NL East, World Series loss versus Red Sox in 6 games. Luis Castillo doesn't play another inning in the majors.

[king myno]

94 wins, lose to the Red Sox in the World Series. Just cause everyone is predicting it doesn't mean it's true.

Other predictions:

20+ homers for Francisco
Lidge never closes another game for the Phils

[king myno]

Not true* Bah.

[Wes Chamberlain]

102 wins
NL East Champs
Phils take the World Series from Rays again

Vic, Ibanez and Francisco--58+ HRs

Jimmy--GG, .285 BA, 20 HR, 110 runs, 100 RBI, 30 SB

Howard--45 HR, 125 RBI

3 starters win 20 games

One starter wins CY Young

[limoguy]

RAJ is obviously going to have to make some moves. Impossible to predict outcome until then. The team they end the season with will be significantly different from the one with which they began.

If forced to make a prediction with the current squad, I predict a similar outcome to last year. Better starting pitching but worse offense. Bullpen no better and maybe not as good. This makes it a wash in my mind. I can't see RAJ being content with things as they are, however.

[MPNPhilly]

95-67. NL East Pennant. NL Pennant. Beat the Red Sox in 7 games.

[mm]

97 Wins
NL East Champs
World Series loss to Red Sox in 6

Utley misses entire season-sorry but i really don't see him playing a game this year honestly.

Lidge Misses first two months, comes back, is ineffective for a month, and is moved to a rarely used 7th inning role.

Halladay wins Cy young-again.

Ben Fran has top 10 first half and is traded at deadline for heath bell. Brown who after having a scorching first half of the year in AAA is called up and still can't hit major league pitching.

[denny b.]

I'll say the Phils go 90-72. The rotation saves their bacon. The rest of the team is flawed and the offense will continue its slide.

NL East standings-

Phils 90-72
Bravos 88-74
Marleens- 83-79
Nasty Nats- 74-88
Bankrupt Mets- 66-96

Division Winners- Phils, Brewers, Rockies.
Wild Card Winner- Braves

The Giants flop this year. Their young starters either wear down or get hurt. And their offense can't save them.

Braves beat the Phils in the NLCS and lose to the Red Sox in 6 games in the WS.

[Mike]

I am saying a near repeat of last year - 97 wins, 1st in the East, win NLDS and NLCS. World Series too close to call yet. Depends if the Red Sox pitching is better than expected or not. If Red Sox starting rotation is not that strong, Phils win WS.

Braves finish 2nd about 5-6 games out. Rookies at 1b and closer for Braves struggle.

[Satl]

WC. Phils over Yankees

[Edmundo]

I get this pessimistic feeling ...
-- The Phils will not have an offensive star in 2011
Chooch regresses but is still good
Howard continues his slow decline and is good but not great
Utley barely plays; the replacements are what they are
Rollins star has long set and is simply a solid SS (good defense/struggling offense)
Polanco has no pop (empty average kind of year) and misses 40 games (.280/.320/.370)
Ibanez is solid (Mayberry is effective as part-time platoon partner)
Victorino is solid
Francisco is solid (Brown contributes a little come August/Sept but wait until 2012)
I see 2 good hitters, 3 solid hitters, 3 below average hitters

Starters are, of course, outrageously good
Relievers are cromulent on average

90 wins/WC; the offense will fail them in the postseason as it is not good enough to win 3 series; I'll call a second round knockout like last year

[Mayor]

98-64, #1st Place, NL Champs. But, a very TOUGH series against the Boston Red Sox. Phils in 7 games. Phanatic loses his hair.

[Conshy Matt]

95 wins
1st in NL East
Marlins 2nd
Braves 3rd
WS win over ChiSox (if Utley is back)

[Meyer]

93-62 NL East. Twins win the AL.

[Conshy Matt]

mayor - too funny. the phanatic wouldn't be alone.

[Brett]

97-65. NL East Champs, NLDS Champs over the Rockies, NLCS Champs over the Giants, WS Champs over the Twins.

[Jack]

Meyer: They play 155 games now? Expecting a lot of rain-outs?

[Brian]

101-61
NL East champs by 7 games over Braves
NLDS win over Rockies
NLCS win over Giants
WS win over Red Sox in 6 games

P.S. Roy Halladay repeats as Cy Young Award winner...

[Brian]

101-61
NL East champs by 7 games over Braves
NLDS win over Rockies
NLCS win over Giants
WS win over Red Sox in 6 games

P.S. Roy Halladay repeats as Cy Young Award winner...

[Baron von Hayes]

In every year since 2007 there have some very dramatic, and, at times, very lucky turns. But all ended up with the same end result, and NL East title, and a chance to play for the title. I expect no different this year. The loss of offense (Werth, Utley & Polanco, etc.) and a thin bullpen (Lidge) are now our 2011 issues. They are offset for now by our rotation, and will also be addressed later this year via trade. The core of this team is too good, and our management is too determined, to let opportunities slip. One of these years the run may end...but not this one.

- 2011 NL East Champs by six games over the upstart Marlins, 97 -65.
- Win the NLDS against the Giants in 5 games
- Win the NLCS against the Marlins in 5 games
- WFC, over the Tigers in 7 games.

[Andy]

95 - 67
The East by a bunch, say at least 7 games.
Win the NLDS over the Dodgers.
(The cynic in me wants to say: lose to Cincy in the NLCS; but...)
Beat the Reds in 7, and...

idk win or lose to some team named "Sox."

[bay_area_phan]

94-68, 1st place by 7 games; lose to Wild Card Giants in NLDS.

[Meyer]

Jack, they clinch the NL East with that record. I learned the trick from BAP.

[Chris in VT]

94 wins, NL East champions, win NLDS in 3 over the Rockies, NLCS in 5 over the Reds, and WFC over BoSox in 7.

I think the offense manages more than 700 runs for the season, the pitching staff comes pretty close to living up to the hype, and Howard finishes top 3 in NL MVP voting.

[Andy]

Other things I believe:
If the Giants reacher higher than 3rd place I'll be very surprised.

Ben Fran may prove to be a good hitter but it will show in BA and doubles not HRs. He'll get 17 or so at most.

The Cincinnati Reds pitching will be better and they can hit. I think they'll be scarier than a lot of other people seem to think.

The Red Sox are strong, despite having early season question marks in their rotation. That will change as the very long season progresses and they will be rolling by August. I would not like to be a Yankees fan this year.

Freddy Garcia will not do as well this year as either of the guys we traded for him.

[DPatrone]

103 wins for the Franchise record. They'll beat the Rockies in the NLCS and beat the Yanks (for revenge) in the Series.

The Braves will be strong. Even with our offense not totally to my liking, our pitching takes us to the promised land. Doc will mwin his 2nd CYA.

Big year for Howard. Jimmy, Vic, & Raul have nice years. Ben Fran surprises all of us.

For all the Buster Olney's and others out there in media-land, take that!

[CJ]

98 wins
NLCS division crown by 6 games
Defeat Reds in NLDS
Defeat Rockies in NLCS
Defeat Red Sox in WS

Only one of four aces hits 20 wins, but all 4 win more than 15.

Ryan Howard reaches the 40 HR plateau once again. Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez each hit between 17 and 22 HRs. Chase Utley is back by the beginning of June. Brad Lidge returns for the last two months, but not as closer.

[NEPP]

So, side question...does Delwyn Young go to Lehigh or is he completely out of the organization at this point?

[Zudok]

102 wins, Division champs. WFC in 5 over Sawx. Hamels gets his groove back and wins Cy Young. Bullpen is surprise strength of the team. Ibanez gets 100 RBI but Mayberry becomes key contributor with 15 HR. Utley and Lidge fuel second-half run, though neither makes it back before All-Star break.

[Meyer]

Delwyn leads LV to their first .500 season. Savery pitches 1 inning in relief and leads the team in doubles.

[CJ]

NEPP: Delwyn was sent to AAA.

[krukker]

95 wins and lose in WS to the A's.

Halladay (170 ERA+) wins another CY, Hamels (145 ERA+) becomes clear #2 on this staff, Lee (125 ERA+) pitches well but is not dominant, and Oswalt (140 ERA+, 150 IP) pitches well when healthy but spends time on the DL.

The bullpen goes periods of strength and weakness, but becomes a strength by September as everyone settles into their role. Baez has a solid season pitching primarily in the 7th inning. Lidge returns, with mixed results in a much reduced role. Contreras ends the year as closer, finishing with 25 saves. Madson pitches well, mostly in a setup role, but he will get some saves too.

The offense declines, but is still one of the better offenses in the league. Howard (40+ HR) and Rollins (105 OPS+, 30 SB) rebound in a big way. Ibanez has a great first half and disappears in the second half, ends with 21 HR. Chooch (85 OPS+) and Polly (empty .270 AVG) have disappointing seasons. Vic (95 OPS+) has another down year leading many to wonder whether his contract extension was a mistake. Francisco (115 OPS+) has a great season. Mayberry stays on the roster all season, hitting a few big HR along the way. Utley returns and is terrible leading many to call for his benching. UC sticks with him and he responds by playing well in the playoffs.

[NEPP]

Thanks CJ...I wasn't sure if he had an out clause or something like that. Good to know we still have him available if Orr implodes or Mini-Mart is hit by a bus (about the only way Rube will give up on a Rule 5 guy)

[bay_area_phan]

IMO, people are overrating the Reds & underrating the Giants. The Reds can hit but I'm not at all crazy about their pitching & they play in a tough division.

Re the Giants . . . I originally agreed with the consensus that they were a one-time fluke. But some things have happened which now make them look a lot better on offense -- namely, the arrival of Brandon Belt & an off-season workout program in which a rededicated Pablo Sandoval shed 38 pounds. Plus, they'll have a full year of Buster Posey. I do worry that their younger pitchers could have a hangover effect from the long season. If that happens, all bets are off. Otherwise, they still look pretty good to me.

[Oliver]

Time to go wild:
91-72-beat the braves in a one-game playoff for division champs, lose NLCS in 5 games

[limoguy]

Mike, Edmundo and I have similar predictions. Not that we're right of course.

[CJ]

bap: I was told when Ryan Howard lost weight, it meant nothing. He was still Mo Vaughn. Pablo's body type is even worse than Howard's so that must mean he's a lost cause.

[NEPP]

Will Belt be immediately effective in the Majors or will he pull a Stanton where he's terrible for 2 months and then turns it on?

Or will he be the next Justin Smoak...who was terrible in nearly 400 PA last year despite being considered a top hitting prospect.

[NEPP]

I think its funny that Sandoval literally had to hire someone to follow him around and tell him how/what to eat. He could figure it out on his own.

[lorecore]

THe NL Central is a tougher division than the NL West?

Disagree, I see the Giants Dodgers and Rockies all contending with the Padres still a pain in the ass to score off of.

The Central has the Astros Cubs and Pirates, while the Cards are hurting without Wainwright and Brewers are still a question mark.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I agree that the Giants are possibly being treated with not enough respect, but can we hold off on the coronation of Brandon Belt? I agree he's a top prospect and is likely to have an impact-at some point-but he needs to prove it on a major league level first.

[J96]

92-70 in the regular season.
Win out Taking the WFS in 7

[Philadelphiandy]

94-68, NL East and WS Champs. Utley comes back by the AS break and rounds into form in time for October.

[RK]

I am not ready to make a prediction until I know who is on the team. I don't see these wild 100 plus season predictions with the current setup.
It's unclear if and when Utley returns; let alone how effective he might be. He is often great at the start and then fades in the end probably becuase he wears down. Lidge when he comes back won't be the Lidge we bought but CM will stick by him. And me and others have commented Rollins, Howard and the rest of the gang are not youngsters and have been less productive. Besides everyione knows how to pitch them.
Its why I wanted to trade the lot for a new generation given the pitching we have but we are not the Marlins and management will stick with our guys regardless.

[LA Jeff]

93-69 NL East champs, fall in NLCS to Rockies.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

RK: The team roster is available.

[Iceman]

99-63, NL East title. Utley comes back right before the AS break and plays reasonably well down the stretch. Lidge won't contribute anything, but Rube makes a trade for a BP arm before the deadline. The Big 4 get on a roll in August/Sept and turn a neck-and-neck race with the Braves into a laugher. They put the division away with 8 games to go.

It's impossible to predict what happens in the playoffs, but I like their chances to win a 7-game series against any of the NL contenders.

Surprise of the year: Victorino thrives as the lead-off hitter and has a great bounce-back year.

Disappointment of the year: Cliff Lee. He won't live up to the expectations at first and will hit the DL at some point. However, he'll turn it on down the stretch when it counts.

As for the rest of the NL:

West- Giants
Central- Brewers
WC- Rockies

I'm just not buying into the Braves like everyone else is. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see them making the playoffs. No way does Chipper make it to the finish line.

[Coggin]

95 wins. First in East. WFC in 6 over the Sawx

[limoguy]

RK, we must have eaten the same cereal this morning or whatever. My thoughts exactly!

[CJ]

David Murphy reports the Phillies payroll will be $167.657 million this year. That's a 70% increase since 2008 while attendance has increased just 21.5%.

Just imagine what our payroll would be if these cheap bastard owners would actually spend money on a real utility IF instead of going the cheap route and holding on to a Rule 5 guy. Some day it will be nice to have owners that don't pinch pennies!

[Meyer]

I propose a Prediction Day every 3 months. July 1st, Oct 1st and Jan 1st.

[bay_area_phan]

BB: I'm not coronating him, but it's a prediction thread & I predict he'll have a pretty quick impact on what was once a pretty lousy lineup. The Giants' brass seem to think so too. They waived a pretty decent bench player to make room for him.

[derekcarstairs]

Howard bounces back with a 47-HR season to become the quickest to 300 HRs.

Each of the Four Aces has a good season, but Lee's performance is only fourth best.

Oswalt has such a good season that the Phils sign him to a three-year extension running through 2014.

Antonio becomes known as El Bastardo.

[Meyer]

No pressure on SF. Nobody expects them to repeat. Just a collection of misfits and crazies. Underdogs. I don't trust them. They're sneaky.

[Old Phan]

I predict that people will continually complain about the Phillies offense as they slide into 1st place winning 98 games and go all the way to beat the Sox in Six.

[The_GodfatherSJP]

Mid 90's in wins (93-96) and 1st in the NL East.

No prediction for playoffs because anything can (and does) happen.

[bay_area_phan]

CJ: That's sort of a misleading juxtaposition of numbers, since attendance is only one part of revenues. Other parts, like merchandise, are way up since 2008.

Phuture Phillies posted an article last year which showed that, whether the Phillies' payroll was $50M or $140M, the one constant over the years is that it has always been at right around 60% of revenues. I don't know if that's true this year or not (obviously, revenues haven't actually come in yet, but there must be an anticipated number). My sense is that the Cliff Lee contract might have put it somewhat higher than 60%, but that's just a guess.

[Lake Fred]

I agree with Edmundo's assessment of our hitting lineup. I predict 98 wins, the NL East title, and our four aces make it impossible for anyone to beat us in a short series. I predict another WFC. Against who? Who cares??!!!

[BENTZ]

Phils win 90 games. Finish 3 games behind 93 win Atlanta in the East.

Brewers win 88 and beat Reds in one-game playoff for Central. Giants win the West.

Phils clinch wild card on final day of season by beating a resting Braves team. At the same time, the Giants knock out the Rockies.

Phils get revenge from last year by beating the Giants in the NLDS. After Atlanta rolls Miwaukee in the other series, the Phils pitching completely shuts down the Braves in an easy 6 game series.

The Red Sox win the AL by beating the White Sox in the ALCS. Boston wins a great World Series in 7 games over the Phils.

[NEPP]

CJ, does that figure include the money we get from the Astros or is it the "official" amount for luxury tax purposes?

[bay_area_phan]

So . . . the denoumenent to my last post is this:

While I agree that it's unfair to call a team with a $160M payroll cheap, let's not delude ourselves into believing that this huge bump in payroll is due to some newfound beneficence of ownership. If payroll is always at 60% of revenues, and payroll has risen massively over a two-year period, it follows that revenues have also risen massively. Hence, the Phillies' owners are making money hand over fist & they are making a whole lot more of with the $160M payroll than they were with the $90M or $60M payrolls of seasons past.

[Unikruk]

95 wins and an epic WS.

I'm somewhat bullish on Halladay for another CY and will give an optimistic guess of 75 wins for the aces. Benny knocks out 15.

[NEPP]

The team's valuation has increased by about 33% during this current run. They were valued around $457 Million in 2007 and they are now worth $609 million per Forbes. Ownership is doing just fine.

[AJ]

Here's the way I see it:

98 Wins (1 more than last year)
Division Crown
World Series Champs once again

BUT
Offensive question marks:
-Utley being out is incredibly tough to deal with. He was on his way to the Hall of Fame and you can't replace that well enough both offensively and defensively.
-Rollins sucks now. It's over. He sold his soul to the devil for that MVP award and hasn't been the same since.
-Him and Vic have to be table setters again. Vic gives us nothing if he's just gonna pop out to 2nd base instead of puttin the ball on the ground.
-Francisco is gonna have a huge year (by his standards). Really like his potential now that he'll be an every day player.

But even with all that, the Giants won 92 games last year with an offense MUCH MUCH worse than ours and a good but not better than ours staff (give them the edge at closer but oh well).

Here's to the PHILLS

[bay_area_phan]

NEPP: I'd like to see some of those owners cash in their winnings & increase the Cigar Guy's stake.

[NEPP]

So would I, bap. So would I. It'd be nice to have a multi-billionaire who likes to spend controlling the team.