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Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Comments

I didn't think Philly Gameday was a real news outlet, but they did get the Durbin story before anyone else:

http://www.phillygameday.com/2011/02/chad-durbin-keeps-acting-like-hes-still-on-phillies/

Durbin's track record the past few years and likley performance this year would easily make him among the top 7 relievers on every single team - his contract demands are going to end his career if he doesnt wise up.

The headline "Chad Durbin Keeps Acting Like He's Still on the Phillies" reminds me of that Seinfeld episode where George quit, and then showed up at work the next day and pretended like nothing happened.

Life imitates art.

You want an injury scare?

Try this:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/fantasy/02/23/wainwright.injury/index.html


And people got worked up for a minor lat strain.

Hmmmm. Blanton for Pujols now?

Last year FSU broadcast their game. Any info on it this year?

Answer to my own question.
FSU site says seminoles.com at 1 pm tomorrow.

awh: Glad you liked my medical description of MVP Tommy surgery. It was one of those jokes that you wouldn't get unless you actually lived through Beerleaguer's MVPTommy era.

On your questions, you asked: (1) whether a prospect's fall means he's less likely to make the majors; and (2) whether scouts put too much emphasis on what happened last season.

To the second question, the answer is probably yes, but here's the caveat. When a prospect has a down year, it invariably coincides with his promotion to a higher level (since prospects generally start almost every new season at a new level). That doesn't necessarily mean that the higher level was the cause of his bad year, but it's only natural that scouts would wonder if it is.

As for the first question, it obviously depends how far the prospect falls. I think pretty much everyone would agree that Dom Brown is no less likely to make the majors, now that he has dropped from No. 1 to No. 4. In the case of Michael Taylor & Phillippe Aumont, it might have some effect in the sense that it puts a greater burden on them to bounce back this year. If Michael Taylor were still the 29th rated prospect in baseball, and he hit .280/.350/475 at AAA, that might well be good enough to get him a promotion to the majors. But after last year, I'd say he has to post a considerably better stat line in order to really get noticed.

bap, Taylor is a great example. What happened to his tools? Did they disappear in 2010 along with his prospect ranking or did he just have a bad year?

Re: the MVPTommy ban... Was he banned from posting, but can still read other people's posts? If so, he's gotta' be seething.

For all those new to BL...if you think it's catty, cantankerous, zany, and mind blowing now- you should have seen the mvp tommy era.

The height for a third baseman thing won't ever die, will it?

Ya heard?

"Re: the MVPTommy ban... Was he banned from posting, but can still read other people's posts? If so, he's gotta' be seething. "

If they ban you from posting, can't you just get another email address and a new screenname?

Now that Kyle Kendrick and Stephenie are expecting a child in September, we can't let Durbin come in and replace him on the 25 player roster.

Gold digger 101: Get pregnant as soon as possible. You cement the marriage and even if there's a divorce, you get child support.

And yes, I know that that speculation is evil, totally unfounded, and mean-spirited.

Heather: Stephanie has apparently done okay for herself trading off her 45 minutes of fame on Survivor (3 different seasons). Doesn't seem like the typical "gold-digger" profile. But I get your point re: professional athletes.

Sept due date? Sounds like someone had some fun over the holidays and forgot to wear protection/take pill.


Heather: That's been tried before, including by a Mets troll. JW was on them quickly and they could not foil him.

Heather: We're talking about Kyle Kendrick. "Bronze digger" might be a better descriptor.

Kyle McClellan, who has a live arm and a career ERA+ of 127, is most likely to replace Wainwright. I'd be very surprised if the Cards dealt for Blanton.

Yes, I think I should hastily add that my comment should not have been about the Kendricks specifically but professional athletes in general.

(And heck, not even professional athletes. I know plenty of people "stuck" in bad relationships because of children that were sprang on them despite protestations of birth control....)

It WAS mean of me to take a stab at the Kendricks when I don't know anything about them and I do apologize for that.

McClellan is 27 and he's never started a game in the Majors...he's been used purely as a reliever. The last time he was purely a starter was 2004 when he was a 20 year old in Low A ball (where he posted a 5.34 ERA in 24 starts).

I seriously doubt that they're completely okay going that route. He was moved to the bullpen for a reason.

As clout posted, Jason has a way to ban people who try to come back under another name. He's quite clever (and has the cutest kid ever).

The MVP posts were unf---ing believable.

The Chad Durbin Saga reminds me of that rare poker hand I find myself in where I have a ton of chips and continue to bluff until I know I'm beat and have to toss in the cards before I go bust. Sadly Durbin overplayed his hand here. Nobody in their right mind would give him two years but he was riding off idiotic deals given last off season to Fernando Rodney and (clears throat) Danys Baez. Durbin is better than the both of them but he is just as likely to have a season where he can't record an out without loading the bases and coughing up a few runs as any other reliever. Durbin probably could have gotten the Romero deal a few weeks ago. Now he's getting the Jason Grilli deal. Pretty soon, he'll be getting the R.J. Swindle deal (couldn't resist). Durbin deserves a spot on a major league roster. However either he or his agent was mad arrogant this off season.

I think in KK's situation that she's the more famous one of the relationship and probably made more money until this year.

I think Clout must work in the ISP/security business, b/c his obsession with BL screen names is impressive.

I don't think Durbin was totally bonkers to ASK for two years. But insisting on it, plus insisting that he wanted to play for a contender, plus seemingly insisting on more money than he made last year...maybe that's why he doesn't have a job?

I certainly think he could have had a guaranteed major league job somewhere otherwise.

The site must be able to see your ISP address and block that. I do not see how they would be able to block you if you used a totally different computer and location but that's really not feasible for most people.

I concur, NEPP. Gigi is a popular spot and without knowing what her original stake was, I'd assume prior to KK's @ mil plus deal, she was the breadwinner w/out a doubt.

Maybe it's KK that's the bronze digger here?

Ya heard?

Oops...2 mil plus deal.

And it sounds like Heather's scouting a possible "go all mvp tommy" on our collective asses. Foreshadow much?

NEPP - you beat me to it. McClellan is the Cards first, and cheapest, choice but he is far from a sure thing. If the Cards go outside the org for starting pitching it will only be after he fails to convert back to starting.

"And it sounds like Heather's scouting a possible "go all mvp tommy" on our collective asses. Foreshadow much?"

I'm definitely not trying to! I was just curious, but I guess I could see how that could be misperceived as scouting (or someone more unscrupulous could take that information.)

I will not dig any deeper.

"NEPP - you beat me to it. McClellan is the Cards first, and cheapest, choice but he is far from a sure thing. "

I think the Cardinals are under the belief that Dave Duncan could work his magic on SOMEONE in the Cards current system.

Dave Duncan's got the reputation as a miracle worker but even with him, you gotta give him some decent raw material to work with.

I dunno why the Cards seem so cheap all of a sudden. Why would their budget be broken by a decent pitcher (Blanton type)? They're in the tops in MLB in attendance and it's not like their current budget breaks the bank. Do they have a really crap TV deal or something?

the grapefruit opener is saturday, not friday

Kyle Lohse to the rescue! Oh wait, he was already in thier rotation before the wainwright injury? Yikes.

the latest "Dave Duncan" experiment is former Pirates hopeful Ian Snell.

Heather: Instead of trading something for Blanton and committing 2 years at $17 M, the Cards could just sign Kevin Millwood and get close to the same performance at less commitment and less price.

"Heather: Instead of trading something for Blanton and committing 2 years at $17 M, the Cards could just sign Kevin Millwood and get close to the same performance at less commitment and less price. "

I disagree. Millwood's WAR last year was 1.3 (or, if you prefer ERA, it was 5.10). Blanton's WAR 1.9 and his ERA 4.82.....in an injury marred season where Blanton missed significant time, he still out performed Millwood by a decent margin.

I saw a few Millwood games and a lot of times he looked absolutely hideous.

Now maybe Millwood was nursing an injury or something, or maybe he wasn't motivated playing for the Orioles....or whatever.

But I wouldn't say if I was the Cardinals that it would be a slam dunk that Millwood = Blanton. For the team projected to be on the cusp of a playoff berth where one or two extra wins could mean the difference between October baseball or going home, I don't know that Blanton isn't worth the extra....especially since it's not like the contract he's on is a drastic overpay or anything.

Cardinal fans who have gotten over the shock of Wainwright's season ending injury are discussing on the blogs pitching rotation options including Ian Snell and Kyle McClellan whom Mr. Clout referenced. They've also mentioned outside available pitchers via free agency or trade but are not talking about a trade for Joe Blanton. I didn't want to suggest Blanton as I thought they might take it the wrong way - kinda like if your favorite pet cat or dog have died and someone offers to give you their pet turtle to take their place.

My problem with trading Blanton to the Cardinals is that it will simply amount to a salary dump for the 2011 season. We need a righthanded OF bat. STL doesn't have one. They've got Holliday (who isn't going anywhere with that contract), Berkman (Yuck), and Colby Rasmus (LH center fielder who hates LaRussa). You've got John Jay, their 4th outfielder, and that's really it.

So you'd have to trade Blanton for prospects. Considering the need for RF, the only reason to trade him is to improve the lineup in that respect. Blanton is a trade chip we should spend only if it improves the club for the 2011 run. At this point I'd hold on to him and see what develops in May/June. A few very good OF's may hit the trade market in that time. For example, if Milwaukee tanks, they may have a firesale. And we can make a run at, say, Corey Hart.

Godfather: So wouldnt you want to dump Blanton's salary so you can afford Cory Hart(or other guys who may hit market)?

You literally made the exact opposite side of argument.

Wow...Kevin Millwood is still playing???

BedBeard: Just keepin' it real, bro.

NEPP: All true. What you don't know is that his secondary pitches are much improved, that the Cards planned to stretch him out as a starter even before this injury and that they considered using him as a starter last season.

"All true. What you don't know is that his secondary pitches are much improved, that the Cards planned to stretch him out as a starter even before this injury and that they considered using him as a starter last season."

Was he in the best shape of his life too???

-_^

Here's the problem:

The reason we want to trade Blanton is because the difference between him & KK is not worth the substantial difference in their salaries.

And the reason the other 29 teams don't want to trade for Blanton is because the difference between Blanton and their own Kyle Kendrick equivalent (or between Blanton and the still-available FAs like Millwood & Bonderman) is not worth the substantial difference in their salaries.

As a result, we'd have to eat considerable salary in order to trade him, which would pretty much defeat the entire point of trading him in the first place.

Clout - Could Shelby Miller being promoted to the bigs be a viable option for the Cards pitching rotation at this time?

BAP: Agree mostly, but my main reason for trading Blanton is because he's so much worse than our 4th starter, not that he's only marginally better than our 6th starter.

And for what its worth, I think Blanton is better than Kendrick than you suggest.

lorecore:

Referring to the trade market, not the free agent one. I specifically said May/June, and I specifically said trade market. Corey Hart is an example of what to do, i.e. use him in a package for a good outfield bat. I have no idea who will be available for trade during the season.

My argument is we should not use Blanton in a trade that is purely a salary dump. He's our best trade chip in that he's expendable and a durable 3rd/4th starter, a valuable commodity. Corey Hart is not available as a free agent after this year. But certainly if a good RH bat for the OF is available for less than Blanton's salary, I say use him in a trade.

Come to think of it, looking at this list (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html) there isn't much in the way of FA outfielders to get excited about either. The best on RH bats in OF are Carlos Beltran (35, switch), Michael Cuddyer (33), Nick Swisher (31, switch), and Josh Willingham (33). Given that Ibanez and Rollins are the two big free agents on the payroll (Lidge and Oswalt both have options), I'd say some of the 10 mil we spend on Ibanez could get one of those guys. But it also leaves little wiggle room for anything else.

Wait, does Mrs. Kendrick own Gigi? Now everything makes sense. He is always there in the summer. The place is nothing special and only gets by because of its location. Kind of like Kyle.

I'm sure it has been posted before but hahaha!!
www.stephenieandkylekendrick.com

lorcore: Is he $6M better? If they both pitch to their career norms, then the answer is no. So the follow-up question is: will those $6M extra dollars that we are paying to Blanton hamper our ability to make in-season acquisitions? I don't know the answer to this but, if the answer is yes, then it would certainly be desireable to trade Blanton for salary relief. But the returns on such a trade would be diminishing with each extra dollar that we have to kick in.

godfather: Corey Hart or similar players that would be on the market to help 2011 contenders will be traded for two things: Salary Relief or Prospects.

Joe Blanton would not satisfy the trade demands of any team at the deadline looking to dump 2011 talent.

If you are looking for the ability to add talent at the deadline for the 2011 season, then you should be advocating for trading Joe Blanton for prospects or salary - not for 2011 talent straight up.

and also - acquiring a player means you take on salary, regardless of trade or free agent signing.

Bap: if our 3rd and 4th starters where of closer to Brett myers and Derek lowe than Oswalt and hamels would we still view blanton as expendable as we do now? I don't think kendrick it any other 6th starter is the main factor here

"I'm sure it has been posted before but hahaha!!
www.stephenieandkylekendrick.com"

This is the kind of thing you post when you're young and stupid, and think the world revolves around you.

And about 10 years later you say to yourself, WTF was I thinking???

***All true. What you don't know is that his secondary pitches are much improved, that the Cards planned to stretch him out as a starter even before this injury and that they considered using him as a starter last season.***

Is he also in the best shape of his life?

NEPP: You also post under the name Heather?

See above.

I think Godfather was just using Corey Hart as an example so this is not meant for him. But anyone who pays attention to baseball realizes the Brewers have a pretty good team this season, will be a contender and would have no reason to trade Hart, especially for someone like Blanton.

CJ: Add this to your list:

Antonio Bastardo fired off 30 pitches from a mound and told reporters afterward that he felt no abnormal pain or discomfort in his elbow.

Early prediction based on nothing in particular: Kendrick finishes 2011 in another team's rotation.

For anyone who may be curious, I accidentally figured out the password to the protected sections of KK's above-mentioned website: "VanceSucks". Who'd have thunk it?

"Antonio Bastardo fired off 30 pitches from a mound and told reporters afterward that he felt no abnormal pain or discomfort in his elbow."

Does that mean that he felt only the normal pain and discomfort that annually lands him on the 60-day DL?

Deutsche, I was close. I tried VanimalSchmanimal.

"Does that mean that he felt only the normal pain and discomfort that annually lands him on the 60-day DL?"

Zing! Take that, Bastardo!

PhilliesDude: Sorry, just noticed your question.

Shelby Miller is one of the best prospects in baseball, but I don't see him jumping from Class A to The Show out of spring training.

BA ranks him Cards #1 prospect. His fastball sits around 95 and has a little hop on the end, like Schilling's. His control of it is excellent. He's still learning the curve and changeup, but made good progress on them last year.

If he dominates AA hitters, maybe we'll get a peek in September.

In regards to ip bans....no matter what do, you can't keep someone off a blog or a forum if they don't want to be kept out, without suspending registration.....which really wouldn't seem to be an option here. That would be more for a forum set up.

All the banned party would have to do is use an number of free internet proxies or if they were ambitious, invest in a commercial proxy. So if mvptommy wanted to view this blog or even comment under another name, while not acting like the same nitwit as I remember that poster to be, stopping him really wouldn't be feasible no matter how resourceful an admin or moderator might be. I speak from experience in music forums I have assisted in administering.

Deutsche Phan: Damn, I kept on trying variations on "I Heart Halladay."

I just caught up on last thread.

BAP: Brilliant.

My favorite mvptommyd angle: he played baseball in college, therefore, he knows more than you. Never got tired of that one.

Terrible off-season/ST for the Cards. First the Pujols debacle, which will not be resolved until AFTER the season, and now Wainwright. It's been a rough few weeks for Cardinals fans.

In re: Durbin. Tough break, but unfortunately he brought this on himself. His demands were too high from the beginning and, although he now seems to be willing to compromise on the terms, it's almost too late. As the header says, majority of the deals for relievers will either be low-dollar, one year deals or minor league deals. It's a shame. I like Durbin.

nomination for CJ's list:

CSN did a peice this morning on Raul Ibanez finding a better nutritionist.

Raul Ibanez is on his best diet ever.

Yo, newer thread

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