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Thursday, February 10, 2011

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MLB Network said last night that Toronto is looking to trade Juan Rivera. You guys know more than I do. What do you think? Righthanded hitting corner outfielder with a little pop. They said he's making 5 mil this year.

I understand that you're late to the party (this discussion took place over the past two days), but I never said that Texas would trade Young and $30 mil for "Joe Blaton".

In fact, I said that such a trade was highly unlikely.

I was arguing the side of what Young could bring to the table in Philly, the benefits of adding him, the reasons why he may want to come to Philly, etc... All hypothetical discussion - all with the understanding that this could only happen if the financial imbalance was worked into the trade (for at least the 2011 season).

Nowhere did I suggest that Texas was in any way motivated to make such a deal. It all depended on how willing Texas would be to grant Young's trade request.

Before you log on and pass out personal attacks to myself and the BL, please do five minutes of reading so you know what you're talking about.

If Young could play LF/RF, that's one thing.

But he can't. So no go. The infield doesn't need work. It's the outfield that needs a bat.

Edmundo,

glad you liked that. He apparently is the road where all cases of tastycakes lead to.

Emmett: I do agree with you. Unless a trade is absolutely necessary to content in 2011, or if a deal presents itself that is too good to be true, my vote is to keep Blanton.

@ Rollins to Oakland

Billy Beane signs old free agents all the time, he just doesn't overpay them.

Just for the record, I'm not suggesting that Rollins is going to Oakland. I'm only saying that it's not a foregone conclusion that he stays in Philly.

I'm sure there are more than a few clubs that wouldn't mind having the best defensive ss in the game. Oakland just struck me as the first possibility off the top of my head because it's his hometown team.

Will:lorecore is a new screen name for a longtime poster. JW will confirm.

Will: "He could probably be had for Joe Blanton, and we might even get Texas to pay enough of the salary to even out the books for 2011-12 (especially if Young demands a trade)."

And now:

Will "I never said that Texas would trade Young and $30 mil for "Joe Blaton."

Nice.

Edmundo: Tony Phillips is one of the all time great super-subs. Played more positions than anyone else:

Pos. Games
2B 777
LF 566
3B 428
SS 294
RF 169
CF 97
1B 5

Cesar Tovar is credited with playing all 9 positions, but 3 of those spots (1B, C, P) were stunts done in one game only.

A lot of players have played all nine positions, usually as a stunt. Bert Campaneris and Cookie Rojas come quickly to mind.

Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com reports that the Phillies watched left-hander Jon Coutlangus throw recently.

I smell a new threader head.

"MLB Network said last night that Toronto is looking to trade Juan Rivera. You guys know more than I do. What do you think? "

Mike, I posted on this topic a couple of days ago. It's really simple:

Statistically, Ben Francisco has actually been a marginally better player than Juan Rivera the last 4 years. IIRC, higher OPS+, better fielder, higher WAR.

Why ought the Phillies trade with TOR, give up whatever talent, take on Rivera's $5.25MM salary, all for an OF who is marginally worse then Ben Fran?

clout, why would a poster change his/her screenname? (I know my answer.)

Jon Coutlangus? I'll bet GMCarson would have a field day with than name.

Pete Rose would have been the all-time best supersub. :)

He played 2B, LF, 3B, CF, 1B, and RF.

If the Phillies trade for J uanRivera the Jays would have to take Blanton. Blanton is owed about $3 million more than Rivera this year an signed through 2012 while Rivera will be a free agent after the '11 season. If the Jays offered Rivera for Blanton straight up and took on Blanton's contract while the Phillies took on Rivera's contract I think the Phillies would have to at least think about it. I highly doubt the Jays would offer that since they seem to shed salary and get prospects for Rivera and not 2 fairly expensive years of Blanton. But I would make that deal if it was offered to free up some money for this season and even more for 2012. Rivera would almost be a throw-in.

clout, I forgot about Tovar. What a valuable player. It wasn't until his 5th year as a near regular (500 PAs or more) that he started 100+ games at one position -- CF in this case. 100 OPS+ lifetime; over 200 games started at 5 positions.
He led the league in these categories one time and one time only:
G, PA, AB, H, 2B, 3B, HBP. Oh, and CS. :)
FWIW, he got MVP votes 5 years running.

He was the rich** man's Eric Bruntlett.

** Warren Buffett rich, that is.

From THT's xBABIP calculator which says to incorporate park adjustments:

Carlos Gonzalez 2010 BABIP was .384 and his xBABIP was .309. So not only was CarGo getting benefitted from huge home/away splits, but he had a +.075 luck factor in his BABIP numbers too. Not sure you can get any more help than that in one season.

locecore: I'm sure that even someone of your intellect can recognize the difference between "we might even get Texas to pay enough of the salary" and a statement that Texas will pay the Phillies $30 million dollars.

The first statement is wishful thinking on my part that, if they are truly motivated to honor Young's request, they may be willing to maintain the same budget for 2011-2012 for people that actually might want to play in Texas.

The second is a blatant and intentional misinterpretation by who I suspect to be a very young poster who has logged on in search of an argument, whether or not he knows the topic.


"lorecore is a new screen name for a longtime poster. JW will confirm."

I don't doubt it. One alternate screen name of this person immediately comes to mind, and I suspect we're thinking of the same one.

Right now, Young is a sunk cost for Texas.

He also is a valuable player for them, even though they seem to be diminishing his role.

Unless they got a decent player in return who could fill some of the void he'd leave (a pitcher could help with run suppression), from a pure baseball standpoint it really males no sense for them to trade him.

Awh, that's why I asked here. I don't know much about Rivera, but I thought his numbers looked an awful lot like Ben Fran's. What I didn't know anything about was his defense

I'd rather have BenFran than Juan Rivera.

Have to agree with with lorecore. Schweitzer lost all credability over the Latin American age thing. To use him in a header only encourages him.

Its JWs blog...I think he can pretty much do whatever the hell he wants.


NEPP, agree. I'd rather have Ben Fran AND the $5.25MM in the Phillies' coffers so they could potentially make a mid-season move.

Benny Fran is younger as well.

I'd rather keep BenFran and see Rube spend the $5.25 million on a coke bender with Charlie Sheen than see us trade Blanton for Juan Rivera or even trade anything at all for Juan Rivera.

Ironically, I was the one that argues for us to sign Rivera after the 2008 season and use the savings on LF to sign Derek Lowe.

Yeah, I was wrong and I admit that. At the time, it seemed like a better idea than signing Ibanez.

clout: That is correct, yes.

NEPP, LMAO.

"Schweitzer lost all credability over the Latin American age thing"

phillengood: Yeah, because pointing out that every ballplayer whose age is questioned by fans is Latin American, and this just might fall under the category of racism (or at least racial stereotyping) hurts the credibility of trade speculation.

It hurts about as much as being unable to spell the word "credibility".

Mitchiepoo said on MLB Hotstove tonight that Dom Brown will not make the team out of ST, and that he'll be in LV. Says he's not ready.

Interesting.

I don't disagree. He spent a large portion of the end of 2010 getting minimal at bats. That couldn't be good for a young rookie entering his first season.

I guess he could prove both of us wrong in Florida.

He sure didn't look ready when he came up last season.

awh: It's a challenge to GG.

O.P.: If you recall, his debut was pretty good. GG says his swing got messed up when he sat on the bench after Vic came back.

It was obvious he couldn't hit either fastballs on his hands or breaking stuff on the outside corner, but that could well be because of his bad swing mechanics. He held his hands too high and when he dropped the bathead he was late, which meant he couldn't pull his hands in and still get around fast enough on inside stuff or adjust his swing for the breaking stuff. Gross said film showed a different swing in the minors. If he can get Dom back to that, those problems should be fixed.

Someone earlier was insulting Greg Gross's game, but as someone who saw nearly every game down the stretch and into the post-season in 1980, the Phillies don't make it to the World Series without the repeated clutch hits by Gross and Del Unser. Ask anyone else who was paying attention that year.

1980 saw lots of clutch plays but, I don't remember Unser being particularly clutch. I remember the previous season he had like 5 pinch hit homers, which was some kind of team record, then expecting him to hit one every time up after that and he never did. Gross was pesky, plain and simple. Always put the ball in play. Although, I remember him as being most productive in the mid-80s / Wheeze Kids era. And, I remember him and Glennbo Wilson looking about hte same until they swung a bat.

awh: If Brown doesn't make the team, who does?

You'd have Francisco in RF, and a bench of Gload, Mayberry, Valdez, Schneider, and...?

Brown is one of the 25 best players the Phillies have. I'd be shocked if he didn't make the team.

Jack, I'm just repesting what Mitch Williams said.

Clout: I wasn't there to watch in 1980, but I checked through same game logs just to see what counted as clutch hits and to check if your memory was still good 30 years later.

Gross hit .250/.357/.250 in September/October of 1980. He had 6 hits. It looks like he had, as pinch-hitter: a single for an insurance run in a win against the Cubs on Oct. 2, a single in a loss against Montreal, a single in a game they were up 7-3 (and won by that margin), a single in another loss, a single for an RBI in a game they were up 4-0 in at the time, and a 1-4 game as a starter with no runs or RBIs.

So basically I see one hit for an insurance run that could be counted as "clutch" during the stretch run in the regular season. What were you remembering?

If Young ended up in Philly he would hit like Vinny Castilla, Galarraga and Dante Bichette did in Colorado. You can count on an annual output of 35hrs and 110rbi's at Citizens Bank. I would swap Ibanez & Blanton for Young and prospects in a second. Play Young in multiple positions (LF, 3B, SS, 2B & 1B)to wreck havoc on NL pitching staffs. Batting Young in front & behind Howard. Batting Young clean-up between Utley & Howard would truly be unfair.

Jack/Hugh: I think clout was talking about the post-season. I remember 1980 vividly. Unser & Gross were absolutely huge off the bench in that epic NLCS against the Astros. The numbers bear that out.

Schweitzer you called me, a 63 year old African American, a racist for laughing at your stupid assertion that latin American ball players don't fudge their age or haven't fudge it in the past. As a matter of fact you called just about every regular contributor on here a racist because know one agreed with you. You said you were done posting because you were roundly called out for it.
Now get your spell checker ready because thats what message board bully's do when they don't have a leg to stand on. They correct spelling and grammar.

whoops Latin should be capitalized but Will can correct the rest to distract from his pathetic argument.

I'll pass on this one, guys. Let's hold off on Blanton a little while longer in case we decide later we need to dangle him for help in the OF.

"If Young ended up in Philly he would hit like Vinny Castilla, Galarraga and Dante Bichette did in Colorado. You can count on an annual output of 35hrs and 110rbi's at Citizens Bank."
May I assume that my sarcasm detector should have gone off and needs to go the shop for a tuneup?
Remember the golden days when coming to CBP was going to make Pete Happy a 30 HR a year guy?

So Greg Gross/Del Unser 1980 heros...Pedro Feliz just a bum who got lucky in the right time at the right place.

Gregg & Kevin Gross were my 3rd and 4th favorite Phillies growing up after Micheal Jack & Shane Rawley...Wonder if we can get Kevin as our pitching coach, reunite the pseudo Brothers Gross. That would be awesome.

Jack - If D. Brown starts out in LHV I imagine the bench would be:

Mayberry
Gload
Schneider
Valdez
M. Martinez or D. Young

Remember, they see Martinez as someone who can fill in CF.

zoomer: I am more optimistic about Brown then most, but dear lord - do people really think so low of him that he can't earn a roster spot over Mayberry, Michael Martinez, and Delwyn Young?

Was looking at Votto and Hamilton's new contracts, and took a look at Howard's arb years in comparison to Votto:

Howard's first arb was for the 2008 season and Votto's was 2011. Howard made $10M while Votto is making $5.5M. Take a look at their numbers heading into that first year:

Howard: 410 Games 1740 PA - 127HR 353RBI .291/.397/.610

Votto: 456 Games 1870 PA - 90HR 298RBI .314/.401/.557

Howard with the slightly better numbers and slightly less service time got almost double of what Votto is getting. I feel like the Phils got ripped off on Howard right from the start which forced them into the kind of money they had to shell out if they wanted to keep him in Philly.

Lorecore: Howard chose to take the risk of going year-to-year in contrast to guys like Longoria, Bruce, & Votto who opted for the safety of a longer deal. It paid off for him. It might not of though. Without looking I think Howard began his career later than that group and thus had a shorter window to "get paid".

Yeah that is a good point, Votto contracted all of his arb years, but take a look at his years compared to Howards:

Howard's 1st: $10M
2nd: $15M
3rd: $19M
Total: $44M

Votto's 1st: $5.5M
2nd: $9.5M
3rd: $17.5M
Total: $32.5M

b00bmethod: Howard's Agents 12M >'s Votto's Agents

Clout: I was the one that brought up Greg Gross. I agree he was a valuable part of those teams. He really was a good pinch hitter. And he wasn't too bad as an extra outfielder either. My point was that his particular style of hitting wouldn't lead me to believe he's a candidate for hitting coach. As many pointed out, it's not that important a position anyway. And Charlie is probably awfully involved in that area anyhow. I just wonder what words of wisdom he would have with someone trying to pull the ball etc. He really was a favorite of mine from those teams though. As was Del Unser whom I later met on several occasions. Wouldn't it be nice to have a pinch hitter like Unser again? Clutch with some power and a good outfielder as well. I thought he was VERY valuable.

Michael Martinez has zero chance of making the Opening Day roster unless this is hit with a rash of injuries in the OF during spring training.

There isn't nearly as much competition for the bench spots as some assert. Schneider, Gload, and Valdez are locks. Leaves 2 spots and the starting RF will either be Francisco/Brown. Basically leaves one roster spot for either Mayberry or D. Young.

Does anyone know, can Mayberry play center?

phillengood: Strange as this may seem to you, 63 year old African American men are not immune from having racist thoughts.

You don't get to apply ethnic stereotypes to a group of individuals and then say "No, it's ok because I'm I black man." Wrong is wrong, and you are wrong.

By the way, I didn't make fun of your spelling. I said that your half-assed opinion of me based on a discussion that took place months ago hurts my credibility as much as your command of the written word hurts your credibility. If you're going to post solely to antagonize other people and get into fights (which seems to have been your only motivation for entering the discussion), it helps if you take the time to write like an adult. You are 63 after all...

jbird: It seems that the feeling on here is that he can because he has the speed. I'm not so sure though. He's got tools but he doesn't look like a good outfielder to me. I'm on record as saying he just isn't a major league ballplayer. He can only hit lefties. And I don't think he can hit the good ones. Hope I'm wrong but I don't think the guy will be of much help.

ps: I also never once made the argument that no Latin American ballplayers have ever lied about their age. I said that the assumption that all Latin American ballplayers are automatically suspect is racism. Specifically, it's racial profiling based on an ignorant stereotype.

You're attributing things to me that I never said. You, sir, are a liar.

phlipper, I mean lorecore, Howard went to, and WON an arbitration hearing with the Phillies.

They offered him 7MM, he countered with 10MM.

At the time, Howard had "historic" numbers - fastest to reach 100 HR, etc. - and the Phillies put their chips down on the "service time" argument.

It was a gross miscalculation by the Phillies. Had they offered 8.5 Howard probably would have lost, as it was a much more reasonable number based on the available comps and performance records of players at that time.

If you're lamenting the fact that Howard got 10MM, well, the Phillies were as responsible for making that bed as Howard and his agent.

The Phillies goofed, and now they're paying for it.

MG, I agree.

BAsed on track records, D Young has a much better chance/probability of making the roster than Martinez [unless of course you're referring to Pedro :)].

" I said that the assumption that all Latin American ballplayers are automatically suspect is racism."

Will, that in and of itself is a false statement.

If you would like me to logically explain why that is so I would be happy to do so. I, however, hope that you're erudite enough to save me the trouble.

phlipper = lorecore?

If Brown starts the season in AAA, it won't be because "he can't earn a roster spot over Mayberry, Michael Martinez, and Delwyn Young." It will be because he didn't earn the starting RF spot over Ben Francisco and the Phillies would rather have him playing every day at AAA than getting 3 ABs per week in the majors.

bap, that's my educated guess. The writing style is very similar.

bap, exactly right on Brown.

Mitch didn't say he'd NEVER be an MLB player, he simply said he didn't hink he was ready because he needed to correct the 'high hands' in his stance.

bap - thanks, I was about to say the same thing in response to lorecore.

I'm of the camp that it isn't a 'yes' or 'no' on Brown being ready. I think it is most likely 'almost'. If he isn't hitting like crazy in ST he might just need a month or so of time at LHV to get ready. Either way, don't bring him up unless you are going to play him almost every day. Why buy a Harley just to take it to Wawa for a shorti every few days?

lorecore: look at the advantage Howard has on counting stats in 130 less PA. I think it is a flawed system but arbitration still seems to favor counting stats. That being said he was still averaging 40+ HR with a .290 average! Looking at tripe slash OB are similar but Howard has an .050 SLG advantage with .025 less BA. What raw power!

awh: I suppose if you want to get into a battle of semantics, it's technically bigotry or ethnic prejudice, but that's really splitting hairs.

Sociologically speaking, the designation of "hispanic" is considered a race unto itself, even if it biologically is not.

--------------------------------------

"phlipper = lorecore?"

I'd put money on "Super Smart Guy Who Knows What LOOGY means" as another alter ego. It's a shame that BL doesn't have a more secure login that requires real names, email, etc... Personally, I don't believe in usernames so long as you're not ashamed of what you write, but they're a reality of online communication. Multiple usernames... well, I suppose you can't keep children from using the computer.

Yo, newer thread

The Phillies should trade Joe Blanton and Placido Polanco or Blanton and some prospects like Carpenter or Mayberry Jr. Because they aren't going to use him. Or just trade J-Roll now. He's not as good as he was. CharlieManuel sticks up for him to much. He's gone next year anyway. Might as well get a good right-handed bat like Young will be good.

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