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Monday, February 28, 2011

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You're still wondering what Cholly thinks of Ben Fran? I point you to the weekend in the Bronx last summer where the 39 year old played all 3 games in LF, while Ben Fran DHed.

Predictions: J-Roll flies out, Exxon ground into DP and Mayberry jumps in the Cadillac.

BP's top 100 is out. Brown #5, Colvin #60, and Singleton #63.

Drabek #14.

Yet another publication with Colvin over Cosart.

Not surprising really.

Thanks for the iPad tip BB.

What's the over/under on games played by Chase Utley this season? 135?

I'll take the under.

Agree w/Bay Slugga.

What's the over/under on the number of times the Phillies score 3 or fewer runs this year? It's probably around 80 & smart bettors would take the over.

we should sign bugs bunny, since all of our regulars are going to get hurt. he's the only one i know who can play every position (well, at least above replacement level anyway).

Yep, very much take the under on that.

I'm trying to be optimistic but with Utley being hurt already really is making me think this is the end for the Phils offensive power years..........

But I am saying the on Feb 28th too, usually i'm never right about these things so I really hope I am wrong.

Is it just in Philly where the apropos saying during Spring Training is "Pessimism springs eternal?" Or is this a Beerleaguer phenomena.

I'm not even sure why they are bothering to even play the season. They're all hurt, and they can't hit anyway. Trade them all now.

I wonder what the over/under was for the number of pitches the Phillies would see in the first inning of this game. If the over/under was 4, and you bet the under, congratulations on your winning bet.

I hate it when the Phillies get their swings in against live pitching during the 3rd game in spring training.

for the love of god, utley has a small boo boo. if he misses a bunch of games in april and may then we can grouse about "utley being hurt already". he has mild soreness. he's a veteran player. he's missing a few spring training games. somehow i think he'll be ready to go come game 1.

at least jroll hasn't hurt himself putting on his cleats...(crosses fingers)

Chooch off the wall with the bags full. The offense explodes.

Guess that means this will be a phenomenal season after all. Right? We get to make bold predictions based on tiny sample sizes, right?

Chooch!

Welcome back.

Is there something screwy with the gamecast? Every out and ball in play is on the first pitch? Every walk is four-pitch walk? Anybody get the radio broadcast or watching on the TV?

Call me a homer, but Halladay walked the third batter on four pitches?

If Wilson Valdez grounds into a double play here I'll be impressed.

Gamecast just gives the result of the at bat with the simplest combination of pitches possible.

I dont think they have a real pitch tracker so I think it basically just kinda guesses

everyone wants to say how the good teams/players wont do as good as expected and the bad teams/players wont do as bad as expected. It happens every year.

- the 2nd and 3rd place teams are dangerous
-The backups are ready to step up.
-The first place team has a lot of holes.
-The all stars wont be all stars again.
-blah blah blah

I was really concerned about the Phils offense, but now that Chooch got a hit, I feel more relaxed.

Thank you. Of course, I believed it took three pitches for three outs when Rollins, Victorino and Polanco were up.

Does anyone have online radio access that they don't have to pay for? I know. I'm dreaming.

It is indeed suprising how badly this team is playing right now. The loss yesterday to the Yankees was a bad loss, probably worse than we'll have all season.

And the worst part of it was that when Schimmer and DeFratus are pitching in the hitting-friendly confines of the Zen they're likely to get rocked even harder. I'm not sure how we're going to be able to overcome such a weak bullpen with those guys pitching out of it all season. I mean, gee whiz, how in the world does this team expect to compete with those two guys and Worley in the 'pen.

And when their bench consists of Freddy Galvis, Erik Kratz, Pete Orr and Michael Martinez, I don't think they'll be getting much help from them.

Add the likelyhood that the entire starting 8 goes down at one point during the season because of age-related injuries, joined by at least 3 in the starting rotation (the over 30 crew), and I think it's now safe to say:

Season = Over!

bap: Are you listening to the game or just following the Gamecast. I thought there were more than 3 pitches in the first.

Phillies Stadium: Since the only radio broadcast is from MLB (no local broadcast), I believe it's an MLB.com exclusive... which means it costs money.

I know I'm late to an irrelevant discussion, but Werth's comment is not different in any way than when JRoll took a direct shot at the Mets with his "team to beat" comment (and whatever nonsense he said the next year, as well). I'm sure the Mets feel the same way about JRoll as we do about Werth, with only the nuance of him being a former member of the club being the polarizing component.

The only difference is the uniform of the guy taking a shot at the favorite.

"I believe it's an MLB.com exclusive... which means it costs money."

After all, someone has to help bail out the Mets.

Thanks, CJ.

Dom Brown with the bases loaded. His entire season comes down to this at bat.

Whoops... not loaded.. it was 1st and 3rd... and Mayberry stole second, Pujols scored from 3rd when the throw got away.

So it's Dom at the plate with a runner at 2nd. Full count. His season no longer rests on this at bat.

Pujols? We traded for Pujols?

Wait... I meant Polanco.

And Dom struck out looking on a full count breaking ball.

He's clearly ticketed for Single A.

Cj, when did the Phils trade for Pujols?

Putting Pujols at third is stupid.

Is Pujols tall enough to play third?

pujols used to play 3b, so...

Pujols/Polanco, I confuse the two all the time. It's the big heads.

So, we're told that we shouldn't be concerned about Brown being pulled from Winter Ball, and that Gross fixed his swing by dropping his hands, and that he'll get a TON of AB's in Spring Training.

All that said, I'm told that I shouldn't be concerned about Brown. However, with his recent drive trend toward breaking the single season strike out record in Spring Training, I have to say, I'm starting to GET concerned...

I guess I'll know if I'm "concerned" or not come clout day.

CJ: Gameday, and I now know that it doesn't track all the pitches. Nonetheless, I stand by my comment that it was a 3-pitch inning. If Gameday doesn't count the pitch, then it never happened.

3 games people, 3 games it has been, nothing means anything yet, no reason to get concerned or excited.

Anyone listening have a sense if Ramirez was locating his pitches during that inning or just guessing and throwing hard?

with only the nuance of him being a former member of the club being the polarizing component."

Umm, that "nuance" is the important factor here.

Who cares if Dom Brown isn't hitting? Delwyn Young is batting .400. And hasn't committed an error yet. We won't miss him.

Can someone tap Sarge on the shoulder and tell him Delwyn Young is not related to Dmitri and Delmon?

"What's the over/under on the number of times the Phillies score 3 or fewer runs this year? It's probably around 80 & smart bettors would take the over"

Here is a rundown on how many games the Phils have scored 3 or less runs:

2010: 75 games (11 shutouts)
2009: 58 games (7 shutouts)
2008: 54 games (8 shutouts)
2007: 41 games (3 shutouts)

Phils have held opposing teams to 3 runs or less:

2010: 77 games (21 shutouts)
2009: 65 games (9 shutouts)
2008: 74 games (11 shutouts)
2007: 60 games (5 shutouts)

I would bet the 'Over/Under' on the number of games the Phils score 3 runs or less this year if you could bet would be 77. I would take the 'Over'

More interesting is just how many games the Phils can hold their opponents to under 3 runs or less. I would be the 'Over/Under' there would be 83 or 84. Not as sure about that one.

Also wonder about the 21 shutouts. I imagine the Phils would exceed this by a bit but really hard to imagine they hit something like 30. Basically in almost 20% of their games, the opponent wouldn't even score.

Someone sign Delwyn to a huge contract!

Domonic Brown suxxxx, send him to triple A right now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! he hasn't been playing baseball for 11 consecutive months amirite?!?!?!

beerleaguer > all

6-0 Phils. Presented without comment on whether this means the offense will succeed this year.

MG: 21 shutouts seems like a huge number. The Phillies' starting pitching is obviously better than it was last year, but I still think they'll be hard-pressed to repeat that feat.

Im excited to see how J.C. Ramirez does this year at AA, hes got a good arm, I think he could really break out this year.

"6-0 Phils. Presented without comment on whether this means the offense will succeed this year."

Umm, not really. By commenting that you weren't commmenting, you implicitly commented. Your implicit comment was: "6-0 Phils. Their offense will succeed this year."

mego: "Im excited to see how J.C. Ramirez does this year at AA, hes got a good arm, I think he could really break out this year."

Who's this mego guy? Clearly a plant. No one can suggest that any player we received in the Cliff Lee trade will ever amount to anything.

Ramirez, Aumont, Gillies = worthless

For the record, I, too, am excited to see how J.C. does this year. He's got talent.

Boy, without Howard and Utley in the lineup this team really scores runs!

(I think we just figured out the problem.)

bap: Au contraire. The Phils have benefited from some terrible defense. Most of their runs should be unearned. Two of their first three runs were, in fact, unearned and two more were scored on a fly ball by Polanco that would have been caught by most RFers.

Perhaps I was suggesting they Phils should have more runs given the terrible defense being played!

Unless Dom Brown scores 3 runs in every game, this team will go 0 - 162.

2 Ks for JC.

At least one of our young pitchers is looking good.

"Can someone tap Sarge on the shoulder and tell him Delwyn Young is not related to Dmitri and Delmon?"

Sarge's next comment: "Oh, he's related to Chris Young, then? Didn't know that."

CJ = J.C.? Another plant, likely.

Seriously, Ramirez SOUNDED good, hard to tell with Sarge mumbling into my ear.

Stutes SOUNDS good too!

What is up with the music between innings - is the game taking place in an elevator?

Yeah, solid innings by Ramirez and Stutes.

A qunituple switch by the Jays' manager. I wish we had a manager who could pull off something like that.

Pujols at third, I knew it. Polanco can play second. Where's Utley going to play?

Meyer - Utley is dead, didn't you hear? His knee fell off and he bleed to death because he refused medical treatment. That's True Grit.

Stutes not as solid in his 2nd inning, three hard-hit balls, but Galvis stole a hit with his glove. Stutes followed that up with another K.

And Stutes finishes strong, striking out the last two hitters looking on what were apparently pretty wicked breaking balls. Good to hear!

looking forward to tomorrow when I can actually watch the game instead of trying to figure out whats going on based on the radio broadcast...

Utley's last words while bleeding out were reportedly:
"It's a little soreness, nothing to get worked up about...guhhhh. I see a dark horse."

It might be the weather but my right knee puffed up yesterday and my left knee needs a replacement. Old age and too many miles.

Gelb tweets:

"Most impressive today? J.C. Ramirez, who struck out 4 (incl. Bautista, J.P.) all swinging in 2 IP. Hit 94-95 regularly with a sharp slider."

Clearly a mirage. Ramirez will fold like a beach chair.

Stutes could be another Chad Durbin down the road. Always thought he was a under-the-radar guy as a bullpenner.

The pitching and defense has been pretty good in the early going of spring training. Schwimmer got hit hard yesterday.

DeFratus looked really good against FSU and got a bit wild with his fastball command against The Yanks. He reminds me of Larry Anderson. Love that sinking, borring (sp) fastball he throws to right-handers. Might end up being the closer at Lehigh to start the season.

I really like what Cholly is doing early in spring, using some of his potential bench pieces all over the diamond. For guys like Valdez, Young and Mayberry that is the ticket to sticking. Being able to play multiple positions and do multiple things off the pine. I liked the Delwyn Young pickup when I heard it last winter and I like it now. He may be a "starter-type" but he can play a lot of positions adequately, has a strong arm and switch-hits. I think he has a good chance of sticking.

I think they are going to give Dom every opportunity to earn a roster spot. He'll be in there most every day for the next 2 weeks.

Matt Anderson sighting!

Clean inning including a strike out.

This outing ought to quiet down all the Scott Mathieson lovers for at least a day or two.

There's a lot of unfounded faith in a guy who's had all of 200 plate appearances at a level higher than the Florida State League.

Domonic Brown has A LOT to prove. Regardless of his performance this spring, I don't see what he's done in his career that justifies a spot on the big league club before July at the very earliest.

Let him earn it by proving he can hit AAA pitching. Nevermind this automatic promotion crap.

bap - Yeah. There are alot of posters on PhuturePhillies and GoodPhight who are crushed right now.

My bet is that Mathieson doesn't even make the first cut in about 10 days to the minor league system.

Will are you suggesting Dom Brown has only had 200 plate appearances above FSL?

Because when I do the math his 162 PA in AA in 2009 and his 389 PA between AA and AAA in 2010 comes out to higher than 200.

He also hit .327/.391/.589 in that latter sample. You're welcome to believe he's not ready, but your facts are wrong.

Will: might want to check those numbers again.

Dom has 551 PA above Florida State League in the minors - with an OPS above .920

After having 291 PAs at Clearwater A+, Domonic Brown had 433 PAs at AA, 118 PAs at AAA and 70 PAs with the Phils for a total of 621 PAs at AA or higher (about a full season's worth).

He may or may not start his season at AAA, but it has little to do with how much time he's spent about A ball... plenty of players have made that jump with that experience in the past.

Noah / Lorecore: My bad. Combination of hyperbole and the fact that I forgot he was with Reading in 2009.

Still, less than a month in Lehigh Valley. I don't see the point in rushing this kid if he's not ready.

Will: You do realize that many players jump from AA to the majors, right? For many teams, AAA is a holding ground for AAAA players and ML players on rehab. Lots of top talent spends more time at AA before jumping to the majors.

I'd love to reveal my inside source with the Phillies but I promised him I wouldn't. Really, the only thing I can say is that he was Ed Rendell's frat brother at Penn. But I can say no more and other posters should stop asking about it.

But the latest inside info I got from him is this: If Dom Brown doesn't show marked improvement this spring, he'll open in Trip A and Francisco will start in RF.

You read it here first.

CJ: I get that, but he spent the second half of last season riding the bench, he stumbled around winter ball and now he's changing his swing.

I hope I'm dead wrong and he's major league ready by April, but it doesn't seem like this has been a smooth transition to the big leagues up to now.

clout: Even if Dom does show improvement, I think Benny Frank starts in RF to start the season.


There's an awful lot of pressure on Dom. He's been crowned one of baseball's best prospects and he's been penciled in as Jayson Werth's replacement by many fans.

This may not yet be his time. Particularly with the Phils changing his stance. It's still early. By clout day, we'll know more. If he starts the season in AAA, he's not a failed prospect.

You guys are lame - Dom is the man and will be mashing before you know it.

I'm not supposed to say anything either, but I also have a source. My best friend's wife's cousin's husband's nephew has this guy who watches his dog when he goes away for vacation. The dog-sitter has this hot step-sister, whose ex-boyfriend used to work with a guy whose son was college roommates with one of the groomsmen at Ruben Amaro's wedding. Via these channels, I learned that the Phillies may or may not trade Blanton before opening day, but they would certainly listen to offers.

CJ: My inside source agrees with that assessment.

He also tells me Blanton will be traded if the right package is offered.

I can say no more. But you read it here first.

My gut and right knee tell me that we should have grabbed Francouer while we had the opportunity.

Lorecore: Believe me, I hope you're right.

I'm not saying he'll be a washout. I just have lower expectations for 2011.

Does anyone have any thoughts about the prospects of Michael Stutes? A friend of mine goes to Oregon State Univ. where he says there are a lot of people rooting for him but I've never seen him pitch. Is he another career minor leaguer with AAA his probable cap or does he have some pitches that could land him in a big league pen if the cards are played right? He doesn't get mentioned much as a serious prospect on any lists.

Stutes ceiling is that of middle reliever...He's similar to Schwimer for upside.

Stutes could easily end up with a Durbin/Condrey type career.

Wow, tremendous insider info there, clout. No one would see that coming under the circumstances you laid out.

Thnx Nepp!

So if someone offers us a good deal for Blanton, we'll trade him?


Shocking.

PhilliesDude: My boss is an OSU guy and always raved about Stutes when he was pitching there. They called him "Friday Night" Stutes b/c he always pitched in their big games. Like NEPP, and other said, he's a reliever now, and more of the middle reliever variety.

Stutes' biggest issue is control. He'll never survive with his current BB/9 rate. He posted the following numbers in 2010:

AA: 21 BB in 35.2 IP (5.3 BB/9)
AAA: 23 BB in 40.2 IP (5.1 BB/9)

Even with his very solid K/9 ratio of 9.3 (the same at both levels), that type of BB ratio is unacceptable.

NEPP: I don't know about clout's source, but my source is absolutely reliable and he says that we may or may not trade Blanton. He also says that Domonic Brown may or may not be ready for the majors; that Jason Grilli figures to start the season at AAA; and that the Phillies are expecting big things from Roy Halladay this year. My source could get fired if anyone ever found out that he was telling me all of this, so please keep this information secret.

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