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Friday, February 04, 2011

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Equipment truck sighting >>> Groundhog sighting

Get Sarge Jr. some more HGH and let's plan the parade!

I hope they list the contents of the trucks in greater detail this year.

It's hard to watch the older players go into decline and try to hold onto the barest thread of hope that they will eke out a few more paychecks before the curtain goes down.

How many of them succeed in something that's not baseball related afterwards?

"How many of them succeed in something that's not baseball related afterwards?"

How many of them need to? It seems there's always scouting, coaching, and managing the numerous major, minor, independent, college, and HS teams. There's quite a few of those jobs.

It seems with a reasonable MLB career and half a brain in your head, you're pretty much guaranteed employment for life in some capacity.

Broadcasting hasn't been too shabby of a career for many of them either.

Also though, coaching a high school team is a big comedown from playing in the majors.

The equipment truck sighting might be the most deserving headline in the past 4-5 weeks. It easily outranks priority in this thread, and i'd vote it over the eskin/cataldi ones as well.

limoguy - I highly doubt Feliz is continuing to hold out for a few more paychecks. Guess MLB players are entitled to their paychecks but I find it hard a bit to stomach that a career mediocrity who had made over $25M in his playing career.

Unless you work in high-end finance or are a CEO of a Fortune 500 company with stock options galore, no else will see that kind of money and please don't tell me that Feliz is among the best at his craft. No even remotely close. Even during his peak years in '03-'04, he was merely above career average.

Maybe they just love to play baseball?

From the previous thread:

"41.75 MM to replace or re-sign:

Rollins
Oswalt
Ibanez
Madson
Lidge
Baez
Gload
Romero
Schneider

awh - How many of these do you really want to re-sign?"


Andy, why do you think I used the term "replace" along with "re-sign"?

Obviously, there is no way every one of these guys will be back.

The only 3 I would even consider are Rollins, Oswalt and Madson.

Maybe....maybe I would include Lidge and Ibanez at the right price...ass-u-ming they would accept limited/lesser roles going forward.

The other thing to consider is that Oswalt's option is MUTUAL, and that he STILL gets the $2MM buyout if he rejects the team option. He has all the leverage, and will only be going into his age 34 season. If he has another year like 2010 - 2.76 ERA, 200 IP, 1.025 WHIP - why would he ACCEPT the option rather than look for another deal elsewhere...say 3/36 - 3/40? Don't think he'll get it? Take a look at the SP around MLB.

Which leads to the larger issue of what to do with Cole Hamels? 2012 is his last year of team control - he'll probably get a big raise - and unless he's a complete idiot he'll be looking for a long-term deal also.

It may very well come down to either extending Oswalt or Hamels.

One of the things to consider with Sarge, Jr. is that he's owed $12MM this season, but he has to PLAY, or at least try to play. He cannot retire.

Even if I had no idea who the article was talking about, the following phrase, alone, tells me that it's time for said player to hang up the spikes:

"is expected to provide depth for the Royals, who also have Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit and rookie Mike Moustakas."

MisterZoomer - Probably a combo of that and the fact that he simply doesn't know anything else/what he will do next. Imagine being say your mid/late 30s and having more than enough money to live the rest of your live.

No way Feliz is number one in that category.

Bobby Abreu and the artist formerly known as C____ L____ certainly trump him there.

Wait a minute. I thought we were allowed to print Cliff Lee again now that he's returned from the dark side. Please let me know if I'm wrong. I don't want a Beer Leaguer timeout.

MG - I know exactly what I'd do.

Post on Beerleaguer 24/7

donc: As I understand the rules, you are allowed to call him "Cliff Lee" only if you are speaking about him in the present or future tense. However, if you are speaking of him in the past tense, you must not identify him by name. For example:

"I expect Cliff Lee to have a big year for us in 2011;"

"That sure was stupid to trade C____ L__ for Aumont, Ramirez, and Gillies."

Hopefully the equipment truck left the damaged goods, aka Jose Cruz Jr., in the warehouse. The bank has no use for check swings that bounce.

BAP: Can we reserve the rights to swtich back to C____L__ in 2013 when he blows his arm out and we're stuck paying him $22M for the next couple seasons?

BAP: Thanks for the clarification. Makes sense to me. I'd personally like to forget the time of great darkness too.

What happens if, during Spring Training, Philippe Aumont beans Cliff Lee in batting practice, shatterering Cliff's elbow?

Does the universe implode at that point?

I expect to see the foursome in the same game in 2012.

NEPP, I think phans would come out of the stands and do a beatdown on Aumont the likes of which has never before been seen in MLB.

Just remember less than 2 years ago we were confident Cole could be a solid 1 going into the season.

2009 - Cole, Myers, Blanton, Moyer, Kendrick/Happ

2011 - Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton

Stating the obvious but still baffling to see on paper what's changed in less than 24 months.

offtopic: My Top 10 Home Games this season - based on overall popularity considering opponent, promotion, day/time.

#1. Fri 4/01 vs HOU - Opening Day
#2. Sat 4/02 vs HOU - Lee Returns
#3. Thu 9/22 vs WAS - Last Home Game
#4. Tue 6/28 vs BOS - 1st redsox game
#5. Wed 6/29 vs BOS - 2nd redsox game
#6. Tue 5/24 vs CIN - Oswalt Bobble
#7. Thu 7/28 vs SFG - 1st Fireworks
#8. Tue 8/16 vs ARI - Polanco Bobble
#9. Fri 7/29 vs PIT - 2nd Fireworks
#10. Sat 5/21 vs TEX - Rangers game

Do you have a link to the promotions? I didn't know they came out yet.

Thanks lorecore. :-)

Polanco bobble head? That has to be a joke right? It would look like a pumpkin on a stick.

Feliz was never a fan favorite nor a favorite of mine but he was a starter who did what had to be done in a championship season, so he'll always have my gratitude for that. As I recall, he also dealt professionally with some back pain for an extended time.

Sorry I missed the discussion on Charlie, but there were some excellent posts by regulars such as clout and b_a_p (among others) that helped put it in perspective. Always informative, seriously.

If they were smart they'd make one of the firework nights a raffle night for Sarge Jr, like the winner actually has to take the 36 year old who's been on the Padres and Mets twice in 10 years home...no ifs, ands, or buts. We owe that to Sarge.

But at least you have a night of 'works and enough Killian's to put a small horse down to ease that burden.

If I was a major league player I would never disgrace myself by signing a minor league deal with the Royals. I'd retire before playing with those stiffs. He should change his name to Pedro Triste.

"Pedro Triste". . . classic.

"Beerleaguer's all-time leading hot-button issue"

JW, did you miss the last 2 or 3 years discussing every aspect of Kyle Kendrick, his "success," K/9 and overall contribution to humanity?

So, Sarge Jr, has to play (or try to play) in order to collect an albatross of a salary from another team?

Ummm, anyone else here reading the writing on the wall? Singing this guy to a MiLB contract get him his $ from someone else (no need for an invite to big league camp). Precisely the kind of thing that a daddy would do for their kid, if capable.

So, if you're an Iron Pig season ticket holder and Sarge Jr does get his contract, expect to see no motivation or work-ethic in what is sure to go down as the biggest "mail-in" since Manny was playing out his final days in Boston.

preach: not sure i follow. As long as Jr. doesn't willingly retire, he's guaranteed that money i thought.

Geoff Jenkins is a good example of this. Still got paid after released without given a deal from anyone else.

Willard Preacher: If you're an Iron Pig season ticket holder, I think you've got plenty of other things to worry about seeing.

"Polanco bobble head? That has to be a joke right? It would look like a pumpkin on a stick."

donc, LMFAO.

Awesome!

awh: Just like I did when I read that. I've got to make it to that game.

Gary: Some of us have only been cautiously optimistic (instead of "wildly insanely optimistic") about the team for this season, mostly because of the issues outlined in that article.

Our pitching will be top-notch. Our hitting and defense? We'll see.

I was thinking about the Iron Pigs the other day...

Ryne Sandburg for player-manager. He could only be an improvement at 2nd for the Iron Pigs. And no, I'm not joking.

"Our hitting and defense? We'll see. "

That reminds me...I was browsing the Interwebs the other day and saw Lookout Landing (a Mariners website) has a bunch of Raul Ibanez defensive gaffes posted. It's on the lefthand side of their site...just keep scrolling down and you'll see the header "Raul Ibanez takes pride in his defense."

Funny funny stuff. No redeeming value other than their hilarity, though.

"http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/changeup/

Discuss."


Haters gonna hate. I'm getting tired of all the articles trying to poke holes in the Phillies. Yeah, we get the offense and defense don't project to be as great as the pitching. I never thought it was, and nor did anyone else who thought about it rationally.

But there's dozens and dozens of articles about it. I'm getting tired of all the negativity.

It's time for baseball to start.

You know you're good when people are trying to make a case for how things my not work out for you. People are a bit jealous. Weird feeling for Phillies fans huh?

"I'm getting tired of all the negativity."

Heather, forgive my being dubious, but you're probably public enemy #1 when it comes to hating on both Ryan Howard and Charlie Manuel??? Can we expect a change of heart for this season?

Its not that I'm not a Phillies fan, its just a little silly how a lot of Phillies fans (maybe not neccessarily here more so at goodphight and others are so optimistic about the Phillies. I pray that Sports Illustrated picks the Red Sox to win it all this year. I hate the SI curse.

whats sillier, being optimistic about the 2011 phillies or fearing the SI curse?

Preacher, good point on Heather's hating.


I posted something on that BA site. Here it is:


"Hmmmm, I'm not sure your analysis is 100% accurate.

For one, you mention that certain players like Utley and Rollins were lost to injury and that having them back should help. However, you neglect to quantify HOW MUCH those injuries may have affected their performance even when they were on the field.

For instance, take a look at Howard's game logs for the three weeks up until he was injured and out for almost a month. He was en fuego. He was not the same player after the injury.

Utley was recovering from a broken thumb. Not the same player afterward as the injury clearly still affected his performance.

Rollins looked like he was playing on a bad leg all season. Just not the same player. It affected his whole game.

The only 2 regulars not doing DL time were Ibanez and Werth, and Ibanez had a horrible first half because he couldn't prepare the way he normally does because of his offseason surgery.

So, will the Phillies be better than this projection? Don't know, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they are."


In short, they seemed to take a cursory look at the available data, without looking beneath the surface, as we here at BL do all the time.

There are plenty of reasons to be somewhat skeptical about the 2011 Phillies.

MG is skeptical of the bullpen. Heather is skeptical about Howie and Charlie. Others are skeptical Jimmy can still hit leadoff. bap is skeptical about everything.

But their skepticism is much more informed (OK, maybe not in Heather's case) and well reasoned.

That article is just poorly thought out.

So it's wrong to be optimistic about this Phillies team? Oh, wait, that's right, I'm reading Beerleaguer.

Dreamer - regardless of what sort of pitching you have, you need Ruth, Mays, and Williams to win the World Series. I mean, check out the team that won the WS last year - best lineup since the 27 Yankees. Our Phillies lineup does not hold a candle to the 2010 Giants.

If you can't be wildly optimistic about this team with the starting pitching they're rolling out this year...I don't know what to tell you. It will be the best starting rotation in the league and quite possibly one of the all-time great pitching rotations. Just watching it will (or should) be a pleasure.

But this is BL, so it's no surprise to see people chiding those who are so optimistic about the team by saying "Now now, you can be optimistic, but at least be CAUTIOUS in your optimism." Give me a break.

I'm nominating a future Beerleaguer favorite:

Pitcher Andy Wells signs with the Phils organization. Wells pitched last year with the Evansville Otters of the Frontier League. I'll have to work up a scouting report for you since I happen to live in Evansville and have seen a few Otters games. Wells was signed by scout John Hagemann, a 40-year vet who spent much of his career with the Braves before scouting for Philly.

Side note: The Otters play their home games in historic Bosse Field which was featured in the movie A League of Their Own as the home of the Racine Belles. It's the oldest minor league stadium in America and the third oldest baseball stadium. The last Evansville Otters player to find major league success? George Sherril.

"Heather, forgive my being dubious, but you're probably public enemy #1 when it comes to hating on both Ryan Howard and Charlie Manuel??? Can we expect a change of heart for this season?"

I dunno about that, but you know the negativity is bad when it's even getting to me.

Phillies are going to win the NL East is there really any argument about that? After that, it's a crap shoot. Phillies probably have a 15-20% chance of winning the WFC. What's not to be optimistic about?

@lorecore:

that's a tossup

I have to say that the tone on BL is a reflection of how far the Phils themselves have come.

Back in the old days (pre-WS, and even pre-2007 division run, before many of you now chiding me were around), if you even mentioned "cautious optimism" you were a shill for management, an apologist for the worst-run franchise in sport. There was no way to look positively at anything, and if you did, you were laughed at.

Now, if you go so far as to mention that there may be potential weaknesses in the lineup or in the defense (while also noting that the pitching will be some of the best ever seen), you get blasted repeatedly. Apparently the only acceptable discussion on here is whether we'll win 110 games or 115.

"Now, if you go so far as to mention that there may be potential weaknesses in the lineup or in the defense (while also noting that the pitching will be some of the best ever seen), you get blasted repeatedly. Apparently the only acceptable discussion on here is whether we'll win 110 games or 115. "


For the record, I'm not blasting anyone, I'm just tired of the same thing OVER and OVER and OVER. Time for some games to start, eh?

Jack: Well... considering the former description was pervasive for years... I'd say a couple months of the latter seems fair.

Heather: Can't wait for the games to start. Already have tickets to more games than in any other year I can remember.

Jack: I bet the over on 162 W's

We'll have prediction day here, just like always. And I will participate, even though I'm not real good at it (though I did predict 98 W's last year and they only missed it by and injury riddled 1 win).

I am very optimistic about this team. I seriously doubt they'll miss Werth nearly as much as some here seem to believe.

Howard made an improvement against LHP last season. Utley hits LHP.

I expect bounce back years from Vic and JRoll too, though certainly not 2007 from Jimmy, and not necessarily '08/'09 from Vic.
I expect Chooch to regress a bit (and hope I'm wrong). I expect Raul to be closer to 2nd half Raul that 1st half Raul.

Polly is coming off of surgery, so I really don't know what to expect. We haven't heard a thing about how he's doing.

RF is the other question mark. If Ben Fran gets the PA I expect something close to what he did in CLE when he got playing time. Dom Brown? I thin Bill james is waaay to optimistic, but I really don't have feel for what he'll do.

I expect Halladay to pitch well, but not as well as last season (he tossed a lot if innings). I don't expect Charlie to ride him as hard either - he won't need to.

I expect Lee to pick up where he left off last season.

I expect the same from Hamels.

I expect, his back permitting, Roy oswalt to come out and quietly and intensely try to prove he's the best pitcher on the staff. I wouldn't be suprised if he has the best year out of all of them.

I expect the bullpen to be better than MG does, maybe top 3rd in MLB, but not top 5.

A decnt year from the bench, good health all around, and triple digit wins is not out of the question.

I'll save the specifics for "prediction day".

"Prediction Day" is always a great thread.

My least favorite threads are when people discuss players' ST performance as if it has any bearing whatsoever on the upcoming season.

Jack - if ST doesn't matter, how are jobs won?

Mister Zoomer: Rarely are jobs "won" in Spring Training. For good teams there may be 2 or 3 jobs at most that are up for grabs, and Spring Training stats are rarely ever the only factor.

Mister Zoomer: Besides, I think Jack was talking more about how spring training performance does little to help you predict regular season performance. It's such a small sample size and it really tells you nothing about what kind of season players like Ryan Howard or Roy Halladay will have.

Additionally, for the 2-3 jobs up for grabs, as we all know, looking at Spring Training performance is meaningless prior to clout day.

No predictions should be made until clout day, when we see the .jpg of clout in his pirate hat in the header.

Although, I'll be shocked if the day after Brown's first Spring Training 4-4 with a HR and 5 RBI, BL traffic doesn't easily double any previous day in 2011.

Preacher, and some people will be predicting a .330/.420/.600 season for Domo.

Go Otters!

WP: "Although, I'll be shocked if the day after Brown's first Spring Training 4-4 with a HR and 5 RBI, BL traffic doesn't easily double any previous day in 2011."

That depends on whether it happens before Clout Day or after.

If it comes in the second game of ST off a 34-year-old Quad A spring-training invitee, the answer is no.

awh: To be fair, I'm predicting that line for Dom regardless of what he does in ST.

clout, I think you're giving BLer's a little too much credit. No matter how many consecutive years we celebrate/explain clout day, exuberance and vitriol seem to reign supreme regardless of the date/situation.

Brown's first hit alone will generate no fewer than 100 comments on a thread and endless debate about if he should start RF or not.

And no, I never in my wildest dreams thought that I'd type the words "clout, I think you're giving BLer's a little too much credit."

I have a feeling we could say very disparaging things about CEOs #475-500 in the ol' Fortune 500 list too.

The WORST MLB player is roughly equal to being in the Fortune 500 of baseball.

Orioles sign Vlad. If he repeats 2010, they could be interesting. Jones and Weiters have another year of experience. Scott is coming off a career year, Hardy is a big upgrade over Izturis and they've added Vlad, Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds.

In that park, there could be some serious HR numbers.

Of course, with that pitching, they'll need it. Blanton would be the number 2 on that team.

Not sure how much impact he'll have in that tough division, but BAL needs to put butts in seats and have SOMETHING to cheer for. Good for them and a good fit. I hope Vlad rakes (particularly against NYY and BOS).

Clout: Yeah, they've added some thump, but I'm not sure how much guys like Lee and Vlad have left in the tank. Lee in his last four seasons has had 20 HRs, 22, 35 and 19. The 2009 season seems like a flukish outlier for this part of his career. Vlad presumably will still hit close to .300 with some pop. I have to say he just looks like he's going to break down sometime soon. Hopefully for the O's sake, not this year.

I do love the Hardy acquisition though. He's a really underrated player. The Brewers dumped him going into last year because of a BABIP-induced horrible year in 2009. But he's been a surprisingly good player other than that year. His career norms are just below Rollins-level, with the bat and the glove (he's actually better than Rollins with the glove, by UZR).

Rollins: .272/.328/.435 for a 97 OPS+, career 5.3 UZR/150

Hardy: .263/.323/.423 for a 95 OPS+, career 11.0 UZR/150

Who is the most talented baseball player to ever play in the minors after his major league career ended?

I can't find the Clout Day picture. Anyone have it?

Mahay was a scab from the '94 strike. Maybe that has something to do with him not being able to land a guaranteed contract.

Vlad Guerrero signs a year, $8M deal with the O's. Realize he had great numbers last year, but seems a bit high. I guess the O's have to do these things.

So a serious question, when the O's crap the bed again, what Phils prospect do you trade for Vlade at the deadline? Sure, it depends upon how is season is going, if he gets injured, etc. He's a three (or four) game mercenary in my mind, the games we play on the road that he would DH in the World Series. Plus, he's obviously a great bat to have off the bench during the stretch run and playoffs, but not a guy I'd want roaming RF for the majority of the season, especially at Dom Brown's expense.

Thoughts?

What about Placido and Blanton for Michael Young...Gives some salary relief and I think Young has a couple of really good years left

Kevin: Placido is owed $16M, Blanton is owed $17M and Young is owed $48M.

That's definitely salary relief -- for the Rangers!

Shawn: If you'd like, I'll pose for you.

seth: Rickey Henderson?

seth: "Who is the most talented baseball player to ever play in the minors after his major league career ended?"

Interesting question. From the 1920s through the 1950s, the PCL was essentially a shadow major league with salaries close to major league salaries (although teams played 180-200-game seasons so the players worked more.)

Some very good players, who would've been major leaguers in a different era, spent their careers there. It was also not unusual for MLB players to jump back and forth or to finish out their careers there.

Most PCL teams had no MLB team affiliation and were considered "open" classification, which meant they could make trades with MLB teams, sign players etc. just like an independent MLB team.

I suspect a search of PCL rosters from those decades would produce quite a few MLB stars who wound up in the PCL.

Clout, you have to look at the dollars per year... Young will make 16 each of the next three years. Blanton and Polanco both have two years remaining

I was about to post the exact same trade Kevin (well with us getting a prospect or 2 in return as well) either way it's not gonna happen but I'd probably do it.

according to rotoworld Young makes 12,12,13 the next 3 years, I guess the other 11 he's owed is deferred from his the signing bonus. Let them be on the hook for that.

polly 5.25 this year 6.25 next but you can buy him out for a 1 after that

blanton is owed 8.5 this year and next

phils save 1.75 mil this year and 2.75 next but are on the hook for 13 in 2013 but they would NOT be picking up polly's 5.5 for that year either. so it would kinda be like paying young 7.5

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