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Sunday, February 20, 2011

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BAP will be thrilled! Schlitter and Carp together again.

Not to insult the man who had put up decent numbers in Triple-A, but if he wears red pinstripes in '11, something really terrible happened.

LHV has a nice Triple-A rotation actually! Worely, Bump, Carpenter, and possibly Kendrick (rather he was stashed in Allentown than in the pen).

Slightly suprised nobody claimed him. I agree that he would have been no great loss but he could suck up an emergency start. I'd rather have a younger option than AAAA retreads.

What difference really does the age of your 8th starter make? Carp has no more projection left. We are seeing him at his ceiling. The Nate Bumps and Drew Carpenters of the world are quite frankly, interchangeable.

Ya heard.

"Slightly suprised nobody claimed him."

PhxPhilly, I believe if another team claimed him they'd have to put him on their 40-man roater. I suspect they all came to the conclusion that Carpenter was not worth possibly losing someone they already had on their 40-man.

RAJ has a bit of riverboat gambler in his makeup.

Riverboat Gamblers- great band. Bet Rube listens.

Is this an option year now for him then? or will he have to be DFA'ad again we he's sent back down from the majors

This isn't on topic, but last thread, someone posted a link to a fine article about our four aces and their muse, one Chooch Ruiz. It was a pleasure to hear Chooch's impressions of all four pitchers, but his comments about Hamels in particular struck me: "
Even so far in this camp I can see a difference from last year to this year. Last year was the first time he really started throwing cutters, and now his cutter looks like a breaking ball because it's so nasty. He was throwing to both sides of the plate when I caught him, and his change-up is already there right now."

If Cole's cutter is truly as nasty as Chooch says it is, it's scary to imagine how good he could be this season.

See tweets on right: Cliff Lee has mild side strain.

Link

lorecore: You have sorely misunderstood my prior posts if you think I was broken up about the loss of Andrew Carpenter.

magelb (Matt Gelb)
Amazed at how a mainstream blog will copy and paste news as its own without credit. And you wonder why we'll make you start paying for it.
38 minutes ago

Gelb is pissed at JW,

cause JW's post looks a bit like this.

dlhunter: where does Gelb reference beerleaguer? JW specifically wrote "reports Jim Salsbury of CSNPhilly.com".

dhunter: Don't think he was talking about Beerleaguer since I referenced Salisbury. About 30 or 40 stories looked like that tweet. There's only so many ways to rewrite "Carpenter cleared waivers." BTW - good luck with Philly.com putting a paywall around breaking news or small updates like these. Now there's *nowhere* to get that kind of information.

Sandberg's comments on Schitter actually make me excited to have him back.

Its good to have Carp back in AAA too.

***BTW - good luck with Philly.com putting a paywall around breaking news or small updates like these.***

its only killed pretty much EVERY other site that's tried that so good luck, Philly.com

I'll NEVER pay for access like that. I get better Phillies news and faster updates just by coming here. I DO hope that JW gets good ad revenue for that though. Usually that type of paywall kills traffic by more than 90%.

It's been great being able to watch Hamels' development. I love the way he keeps pushing himself to get better.

It's extremely unlikely that both Worley and KK will be at LV. After Carp & Bump, what's their rotation?

Bonine is a starter, right?


He'll probably be there.

***It's been great being able to watch Hamels' development. I love the way he keeps pushing himself to get better.

Posted by: limoguy | Sunday, February 20, 2011 at 08:56 PM
****

Shot in the dark: Hamels will sign something like 4 years, $60 million on an extension following this year. Maybe even 5 years, $75-80 million. If we can afford to give Oswalt $16 million (with help from Houston though), we can give Cole a similar payday for his peak years.

I would take Hamels at his age for 4 years at $15 million a year in a heartbeat. I don't know if he won't test the free agent market though. A front of the rotation starter can make some serious cash, especially one at his age.

NEPP do have a link for the Sanberg comments?

I hope something long term gets done with Coal Hammels next offseason, even if it means decking Oswalt's option.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind paying for content. If JW wanted to throw a BL app out there for my iPhone, I'd pay for it. Lord knows I spend a lot on apps as it is, what's a couple more dollars for my #1 source of Phillies news/commentary?

No...sorry, no link. Someone else mentioned it a couple days back on this site I think. Might have been phuturephillies though.

Also, not to stay off topic, but Gelb is basically generating free content for Twitter every day. Twitter's making money off of him (and others, of course) but not paying him, so why not bitch about that?

"Now there's *nowhere* to get that kind of information."

JW, LOL. That's like Rupert Murdoch's plan to charge for Fox News. Good luck with that too.

I will never read the Inquirer or Daily News again, I guess. I would never pay for the kind of coverage they have and I don't live on the East Coast anymore, so couldn't buy the paper anymore even if I wanted to.

I also no longer watch Daily News Live, since I moved away. And I find that I have a much fuller and more productive life for it. Imagine that.

Go Phillies.

Who knows what Gelb means. I'm just waiting for Andy Martino to weigh in...

And Gelb's twitter essentially makes his paywall useless. Harrumph.

Some newspaper folks seem to think paywalls will "save" their industry, but it's just the opposite. TV news websites will remain free and flourish because the websites won't have to make money. Newspapers won't have that luxury because the newspapers themselves won't make enough money on their own.

Yeah its a bleak outlook for print newspaper anymore. It's been dieing for awhile now, best they can do now is just pull advert money from the website.

Making money off of media requires ad revenue. The consumer funded subscription model died the moment that internet connections passed 56k.

Watching companies try to force users to pay for content is like watching a child angrily trying to stuff a square peg in a round hole. It's actually quite funny.

I've been visiting philly.com less and less already.

Mainly because it crashes the following browsers when I visited (on multiple computers):

Internet Explorer
Chrome
Safari
Mozilla
Opera

Crashes and those obnoxious videos that autoplay each time I jump to a new article. Sorry kids, no dice.

Inky, me too. I don't go to philly.com as much anymore either. Yoo many instances where I got a popup asking whether I wanted to abort a script.

Total pain in the ass. (Sorry about the language, JW, but it pisses me off.)

I still visit Philly.com but moreso for local news than anything else. Is there a better place to get that?

phormer phil Alfredo Simon(traded to SFG with Ricky Ledee for "F-Rod" back at the '04 deadline) just got put on the restricted list for being accused of involvment in a new years eve shooting in the Dominican.

He was the orioles closer for most of the first half (17-21 in saves), but lost the job to Koji Uehara in the second half. Sounds like one less phormer phillies will be in the league with the orioles picking up kevin gregg, getting mike gonzalez back, and uehara coming off a nice 2010.

Here's a link to the article with Sandberg's comments.

http://wap.mlb.com/phi/news/article/2011021716671428/

phew!!

I was worried there for a sec.

Mike, thanks. Sounds like Sandberg had some input behind the scenes, or was at least asked his opinion.

Is David Murphy exclusively on the computer-locking, resource-hogging philly.com site? That webmaster should be ashamed -- I have had IE8 slowdowns resulting in hours of laptop tweaking just to restore normal laptop operations from 1 philly.com visit.

I know I have to slog through that site to get Conlin's content, which I usually read even if I’m several days late. Will said it best -- once dial-up was rendered irrelevant, the "pay wall" content model went with it.

In re: Pigs rotation
Better to wait for ST to shake out.

Want to know why those videos auto-play on Philly.com? It's a trick to drive up video "views" so the advertiser who bought the pre-roll ad will think lots of people are watching their ad. It's pretty common on online sites desperate for ad revenue.

CJ, I leave my sound setting on "Mute" every time I visit philly.com just because those autoplay ads are so anoying. I'll wager I'm not alone.

Philly.com? What's that?

The only time I go there is when someone on BL links to it. If they begin to charge for content, I'll never find myself accidentally visiting.

Is print media run by delusional codgers who feel the need to retain the status quo rather than implement a business model that allows them to stay afloat? I don't have any suggestions on how to save print media, but in my defense, I'm not in the industry.

awh: you are not alone. Those sound/video pop-ups are extremely annoying on philly.com

I just keep java disabled and AdBlock enabled on Chrome. I only enable java if I know I want to use it; see no reason or advantage of keeping it on all the time.

Looking at the tweets on the right, and the timing thereof, it looks like Gelb plagarized a Brookover tweet.

Hmmmm, pot/kettle?

more importantly, where do i find the t-shirt cliff is wearing in that ST photo? I need that like now.

awh: Well, he followed up his initial tweet by reference Brookover. But he didn't give him credit in the first tweet.

On another topic completely, I have been puzzled why many people (not all) think Ryan Howard is in a precipitous state of decline, and that his power numbers are going to fall off of the table - rendering his contract the worst in baseball (Posnanski thinks so).

So, just to amuse myself, I took a look at some very prolific HR hitters - almost all from the pre-steroid era, and many HOF'ers - to see how much power they hit for after they turned 30.

I was surprised by what I found.

The first number is the age at which they hit the HIGHEST HR total of their career in a single season. The second number is the age at which they hit the SECOND highest number of HR. Where there were ties, multiple ages are listed. I also have listed little anecdotes where IMO it helps add context.

The list:

Gehrig 31; 33
Mays 34; 24; 4 most prod HR yrs from 31-34
Aaron 37; 35,32,29,23
Ruth 32; 26 3 most prod 31-33
Stargell 31; 33
DParker 34; 35
McCovey 31; 25
Schmidt 30; 29 3rd most @ 33
Killebrew 33; 28
FHoward 32; 33
Kiner 26; 24; injuries derailed career
Dawson 32; 28
Greenberg 27; 35
Teddy Ballgame 30; 38,27
Snider 29; 28
Mantle 29; 24
Brett 32; 35,27
GriffeyJr 27; 28; injuries?
RJackson 23; 34; 3rd most @ 36
FRobinson 30; 26
EBanks 27; 28
FThomas 32; 35


So, what does this list tell us, or what context should we derive from it?

My interpretation:

Howard has a very good chance of continuing to see productive HR numbers into his 30's, even through the length of his contract extension. Only 5 players - Aaron, Williams, Brett, Thomas and Jackson - had a really great power season at 35 or older, and only 3 of them - Aaron, Jackson and Williams - had a really great HR season OVER the age of 35.

Conclusion, the Phillies were wise to limit Howie's extension to 5 years, because it's unlikely he'll remain as productive thereafter. However, despite the naysayers on this board and others I visit, Howard could very well remain a feared hitter and a force at the plate for the length of the extension.

CJ, exactly.

awh: But what about Howard's body type?

(Since Jack isn't posting at the moment, I'll fill his role.)

clout: Well, he's clearly the next Mo Vaughn.

The question becomes do you think we can get the Rays to agree to a Zobrist-Howard trade without having to throw in any other players?

clout, LOL.

Various tweets say:

Drew Naylor will start Thu vs. Fla. St.
Cole will start Sat vs. the Yankees.
Roy Halladay will start Mon vs. Toronto.

Credit: Phillies beat writers... they're all saying it.

What about Howard's similar players on BAseball Reference? What about that time someone compared him to guys like Troy Glaus?

Naylor? I didn't even know 'er.

Lame, I know. I couldn't resist.

Kyle Kendrick must be lower on the pitching totem poll than I thought if Naylor is starting!

hamels-sat
blanton-sun
halladay-mon
lee-tuesday

everyone assumes oswalt wednesday

awh: When people say that Howard is declining, they probably are looking at the fact that his walk rate and isolated power (ISO) (the two components you'd really look to for a dominant power hitter) have both gone down over the last four seasons.

BB % 2007-2010: 16.5, 11.6, 10.7, 9.5
ISO 2007-2010: .316, .292, .292, .229

What that means and its impact going forward--obviously open for debate. But those are the numbers.

***ISO 2007-2010: .316, .292, .292, .229***

What happens if a healthy Ryan Howard adds to that run with a .292 ISO in 2011?

Suddenly, there's no decline and 2010 is simply an injury caused dip.

FWIW, I do think Howard will be better this year than he was last year or in 2008. I think a .270/.360/.560 season is a reasonable expectation, with his usual HR numbers, and his RBIs maybe down a touch due to a declining numbers of guys on base in front of him. That presumes he plays a full season, obviously.

Jack, but what context do those numbers provide unless you compare them to other players?

Is it possible that some of the other players on the list above experienced the same type of decline? I haven't looked at all of them. Let me know. But to look at Howard's numbers in isolation is a little lazy, no? It seems to me that you have to demonstrate that in almost every case where it's happened before, there has been no turnaround or rebound.

(Hint: Stargell's ISO declined for a couple of years in his late 20's also, and leapt upward after 30. Interestingly enough, his BB% dipped 2 of 3 years in his late 20's.)

Also, I'm not sure it's fair to use his ISO in a season (2010) where an injury clearly affected him the last part of the season. If you were the Braves GM, you probably would have traded henry Aaron after his age 30 season.

awh: Interestingly, Howard and Aaron do have about the same walk rate through the same age (though Aaron's was more consistent). The difference, of course, is that Aaron was hitting .330 while walking 10% of the time, and Howard is hitting .270 while walking 10%.

Look, Howard's career could go either way right now. He could be Richie Sexson, Mo Vaughn or Cecil Fielder (all on his list of comparable players), or he could be Willie McCovey or Willie Stargell. We just don't know right now. We know he has prodigious power, and from everything you hear a great work ethic. That's a start. We also know those numbers don't show a great trend. All we can do is hope that they are a temporary dip in what turns out to be a long and fruitful career.

Also, Jack, your focus on ISO leads me to point out that in the 23 seasons Henry Aaron played in MLB, his ISO was only higher than the .292 - that you imply is a level to which Howard should be embarrassed to perform - 4 times.....3 of them AFTER he hit 30 years old.

(P.S. I am only comparing Howard to Aaron in the context of your focusing on ISO as a "be all end all" stat along with BB%.)

New thread.

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