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Thursday, January 20, 2011

Comments

Placido is my best friend and I am certain that some day soon we will be playing together again.

Albert, if that means you get traded to Philly for Ryan Howard, then I believe you. (And it would solve the Philies' need for a RH power bat.)

More likely, though, you're staying in St. Louis. IMHO the Cardinals will eternally piss off their fan base if you're allowed to leave St. Louis under any circumstance.

Also, the universal derision of baseball economics would come from the chatting class.

And, of course, the Phillies would never agree to a deal unless you agreed to a contract before the trade. the have cost certainty in Howard for the next few years and won't gve that up for only one season of you.

More likely the next time you'll be playing with our beloved Polly is in an oldtimers game somewhere around 2025.

Clout: So you know the same about JD Martin as I do... his bref page and a glance at wikipedia, congrats.

"so what you and Andy are saying is" - what a surprise that the words following this quote from clout were not even in the slightest of what I or Andy was saying. I like how my orig post "compared" the two, then your post quoted me as saying "equal", and then you next post quoted me/andy saying "better". Textbook.

If JD Martin can have a 4.13ERA in 145IPs and can be had on a minor league deal - then why would a team want to trade for Kyle Kendrick who makes $2.45M? Because he's 2-3 years younger? Yeah that matters to guys signed to 1 year deals...

Kendrick is better than JD Martin(see, I'm a KK fan), but as long as the JD Martins of the world exist, Kyle Kendrick has very little value to an MLB Team - which is the only thing I've been saying.

Polly hit .280 after returning from the DL.

If he stays healthy I can see him putting up a typical season.

Of course, if Tim Hudson comes anywhere near a Phillies' hitter again this season, I'd knock Heyward, McCann and Chipper so far off the plate they'd be batting from the on deck circle. Then I'd go after Hudson.

clout: curious, how can someone defend a replacement level starter in Kendrick to the death, but crucify anyone who tries to make the same case for a replacement level OF in Francisco?

awh: I tend to agree with you there about Hudson. I know Larry Andersen would agree with you.

jason, as I posted at the end of the last thread, the rest of us knew what you meant.

The reason I posted that Martin had been released is that I thought the same thing: No one trades for a Kyle Kendrick as long as the Martin's of the world are looking for a job. I guess that damages my plan advocating trading both Blanton and KK.

You see, you seem to understand that players, agents and GM's don't operate in a vaccum. Unfortuantely many here think that this is so. That's why they criticize contracts that are offered to players - even when they don't know what else a player had on the table. "Raul for three years" was ripped by a lot of people here( and I'mm not defending the contract people - just making a point), but we have no idea what other teams may have offered him. It's possible he had multiple 3 year offers, even that early in the negotiations.

You are correct, as long as the J.D. Martins are out there...and the Dave Bushes and the others I listed on the previous thread, the market for a guy like KK (and even Blanton) gets affected.

To wit, if Dave Bush is willing to sign a one-year deal somewhere for $2MM, why in the world would a team give up any prospect at all to trade for the right to pay KK's $2.45MM?

Also, as I posted earlier in the last thread, Pavano signed for 2/16.5, which was eerily similar to Blanton's comp the next 2 seasons. Despite Pavano's excellent year in 2010, Fangraphs says they are two very similar pitchers. So, if you're MIN GM, whywould you pay Pavano 3/30 (what eh reportedly wanted), when for the assumption of Blanton's contract and a lesser prospect you could have Blanton?

Martin < KK. Still, his availability affects KK's trade value.

Not a hard concept to grasp, no?

JW, I'm no beanball advocate, but sometimes a message needs to be sent.

I remember a Myers incident when he was in Scranton - shortly before he got called up. Someone beaned one of his teammates and Brett went right out and retaliated the next inning. After a bench clearing incident, he was tossed from the game and subsequently suspended. It didn't help that he was quoted after the game (I'll paraphrase) along the lines of "If someone hits one of my teammates we're going to be playing some serious beanball". That type of rep gets noticed. I suspect other teams are a little more careful when a guy like Myers is on the mound.

jason, in all fairness, KK and Benny are both "a little above" replacement level. :)

Replacement level guys are the ones who go out and put up 6.24 ERAs out of the 5 spot, or who hit below the league BA of .255, or, to use a more modern stats, below the league average slash line of .255/.324/.399.

(Don't you just LOVE when I reference the Sackman ERA chart?)

There's a pretty big difference between league average and replacement level

JBird, then please mathematically define replacement level for me.

awh: replacement level means you could find someone to do the same job at the same level of performance from freely available talent. . . whatever that means. Baseball Reference defines it as someone with a negative WAR.

awh: not sure that I "get" the calculation, but here's the VORP for the each Phillie: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/team_audit.php?team=PHI&pitcher_rsort=VORP&batter_rsort=VORP

KK's closer to replacement level than Benny.

I love when Larry gets mad at something during a broadcast. Franzke will attempt to remain professional and call the game, while LA continues to harp on the issue.

JBird, let me be more specific.

I understand that "replacement level" has taken on the definiton of being "roughly -10 runs on offense and -10 runs on defense compared to a MLB average player at that position", but WTF does that translate into as far as actual performance is concerned?

To wit: Hypothetically, if MLB average for a SS is .245/.332/.380, then why can't replacement level for SS be defined in those terms which are much easier for the average fan to understand, such as "expected replacement level for a SS is .225/.310/.350". It seems to me that someone can do a study of the replacements and callups and quantify that more easily for the average fan. It's why I've always been uncomfortable with the definiton I quoted above.

This guy seems to agree with me:

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2010/12/whats-wrong-with-replacement-level-valuing-of-players/

We won a world series with an ordinary third basemen in Pedro Feliz. Great glove a little pop in the bat but didn't hit for average. In Polanco when healthy you get everything Feliz provided plus a .300 hitter to go along with being one of the best 2-hole hitters of his time.

Other Phillies blogs might be discussing how awesome that new 10 million dollar HD board is going to look. Not on beerleaguer though, no sir! We're comparing Durbin and Kendrick's WAR. God I love this blog, :-)

"I feel compelled to point out that you are engaging in the same sort of tactics he uses that many here find frustrating."

awh - Very astute of you. I figured it's no use stating, and re-stating and re-re-stating a position based on facts, only to have someone else re-state your position falsely, make up stuff you never said, and then tell you you are wrong. It's much easier, in this case, to do the exact same thing back to him. I would, actually, use that form of rhetoric with any other poster here. It is purely for the benefit of clout. Think of it as my trying to speak in a language he understands.

I read the thread header, then I open up the thread and read the comments. By the end of the comments, the thread topic is completely gone from the last comments.

On Polanco, I expect him to be fine in 2011 and produce in numbers like he was before #$@%ing Hudson plunked him on the elbow.

For Raul Ibanez, I suspect we will see more of his downward slide performance. Maybe its just his appearance, but when I see Raul's shaved bald head, that chaw in his jaw and his gangly slow moving body, I see an old man.

awh: I would think it's because a shortstop in the 50th percentile off all major league shortstops is a better player than at least 50% of the shortstops good enough to make a major league roster and therefore exponentially better than 99% of the guys in AAA and out on the street who theoretically constitute "freely available". I agree that it's hard to put a firm number on it, but I don't think you could call up Tagg Bozied and Andrew Carpenter and get the same level of production as KK and Benny Franc.

JBird, we certainly agree on Bozied and Carpenter.

I guess I just have an issue with the sabermetric community.

WTF can't they quantify it in terms more easily understood by the average fan?

I go to games with friends, and last year, we were discussing Valdez. I said to them "Sure he's playing well now and we should be happy, but he's a replacement level player". One of my friends then shot back "WTF is a replacement level player?"

Needless to say, I had a hard time explaining the concept to him.

IMO, the statheads have more work to do in this area if they want to be taken more seriously.

Polanco is one guy I am very curious to see what kind of offensive season he has. He really earned his paycheck last year because of his defense.

This lineup really could use something like .300/.350/.410 but I have a feeling they get something much closer to .280/.330/.380 which frankly is a pretty lousy offensive season for a 3B.

One of the reasons this offense has been so productive the past few years was the league-leading production they tended to get out of the No. 2 spot.

Last year the Phils got a line of .278/.327/.391 (.718 OPS) line in the No. 2 largely due to Polanco. That was only good enough for 11th in the NL and below the NL average of .275/.335/.397.

They also finished nearly dead last in the league in OPS at 3B again largely due to Polanco. The Phils had a line of .279/.324/.373 (.697 OPS) which was just 14th in OPS.

Not much better than in '09 when they got a line of .259/.304/.382 (.686 OPS) which was 12th in OPS.

It was ironic that Polanco was supposed to be an offenisve upgrade and it turned out he ended up being instead a defensive upgrade.

awh: just ballparking it, I would assume the bottom 10-15% (100-ish) or so of mlb players would be replacement level. I would think it's a hard group to pin down statistically since they get so few at bats and are shuffled back and forth from the show to AAA.

awh: in football they call them jags (just another guy)

LF, not sure I agree with you on Raul. He was affected the last two seasons by injury and surgery.

If he mananges to stay healthy all season we could be in for a surprise. It's also possible you are correct. Still, he did this .303/.368/.485 the last 80 games, so there is hope. He also set a career high for BB last season.

We have no idea what he's capable of at this age if he stays healthy, because we're in uncharted territory for him.

I have full confidence that Polanco has a nice season (offense and defense) at 3b in 2011.

My concerns regard the OF.

I was distraught to see that the Cody Ransom era has ended in Philadelphia. He signed with the Diamondbacks.

JBird, yes, but why can't some stathead out there quantify such players?

Don't the have AAA performance that can be analyzed? Can't some extrapolations be made using that data and the cummulative performance of all those types of players at the MLB level? Isn't that what sabermetrics is all about - using large sample sizes from a large group of players and determining what an individual player's value and expected performance would/should be based on said analysis?

Take a look at LF's post above. He predicts a continued decline from Raul? On what is he basing that analysis? Is he pulling it out of his ass? No. there have been a wealth of studies on age-related decline, so he's not off the reservation in making that predicition.

That said, it seems to me the saber boys and girls need to do a better job of quantifying a replacement level player - by position. The data exists for them to crunch, no?

(P.S. I'm not arguing with you personally.)

awh: I agree, let's go with pitchforks and torches to Bill James' house and demand satisfaction.

There is this well-accepted truth that Polanco is a great No.2 hitter. It is a myth.

The last 5 years he has predominantly hit in the No 2 spot in the lineup for the Tigers and last year for the Phils.

Polanco's OPS last year (.727) was slightly below the NL average for the No.2 slot (.732)

Ditto in 2009, where is OPS (.726) was well-below the AL average fo the No. 2 slot (.767)

In 2008, his OPS (.768) was notably above the AL average (.729) for the No. 2 slot.

In 2007, his OPS (.846) was really above the AL average (.762) for the No 2 slot.

In 2006, his OPS (.693) was notably below the AL average (.767) ffor the No. 2 slot.

So 3 of the last 5 years his OPS has been below the league average for the No. 2 slot. Each year he has, his team has notably lagged in production out of the No 2 slot compared to league average.

Polanco had a great offensive season in 2007 and a good season in 2008 but tha was 3 years ago now. In the non-supplement era, 35-year old offensive 3B suddenly don't rebound.


MG, if healthy, I can forsee a line from Polly that looks more like this:

.296/.340/.400

I'm not splitting hairs: It's the average of his last three seasons.

The other myth - that Polanco has great plate discipline.

Now granted he isn't a hacker at the plate who misses (3.8% of his swings were misses which were well-below the league average of 8.5%) but by no-means is he a patient hitter.

His 5.3% BB rate was last on the team. Only brutal hacker J. Castro had a low pct at 5.1% BB.

Polanco also only saw 3.54 P/PA which again was last on the team among regulars. The much-maligned JRoll saw 3.72 P/PA and Vic was at 3.67 P/PA.

Polanco makes contact when he swings and really ever misses but he almost never BBs and doesn't see many pitches yet a guy like JRoll/Vic usually takes a fair amount of crap for this over the course of the season especially when they are slumping.

Isn't the number 2 hitter's role to get the lead-off man over a base? Well when you have shitty lead-off men, your two hole guy is gonna suffer as well.

Is there a way to get Polly's stats with someone on base?

On a completely different note:

Has anyone seen what the broadcasting schedule is going to look like this season? It is the same as last year or is Jackson taking on a more permanent role?

MG, last year Polly played in 132 games with a broken elbow.

In 2006 he played in 110 games. He was also injured.

It seems to me that in those two years there were mitigating factors, and as such, they may not be the best samples to include in your analysis (which I generally agree with - after all, I advocated batting him 7th last season).

Cipper - In conventional baseball wisdom yes and it is largely foolish. We rehashed this year last but the value of an out is worth alot more than moving a runner over to 2B.

Not to mention that fact that because Polanco hits so many groundballs that hit into 14 GDP which sadly didn't even lead this team because of 'Exxon' Valdez with an astounding 20 GDP in just 363 PA.

Even though it seemed like the Phils hit into their share of GDP they hit just 120 which was only 8th in the NL. Utley, Vic, and JRoll are rarely doubled up.

awh - That's a very fair point. I would just rather see Vic hitting in the No 2 than Polanco. Argued that last year too.

Frankly I am going to be very curious to see how Cholly juggles the lineup especially earlier in the year because I just can't imagine that the RF in this lineup is going to hit in the No. 5 hole on a regular basis.

"Polanco makes contact when he swings and really ever misses but he almost never BBs and doesn't see many pitches yet a guy like JRoll/Vic usually takes a fair amount of crap for this over the course of the season especially when they are slumping."

MG, according to b-r.com, Polly strikes out 44 times in their hypothetical 162 game season. JRoll, 86. Vic, 73.

Polly's K/BB average is 1.27. JRoll 1.56. Vic, 1.57.

My point: He walks less, but he doesn't strike out as much either.

One criticism: By putting the ball in play so often he GDIP a lot more.

MG, we agree. I'd rather see Vic at #2 also.

Cipper, Polly with men on:

Men on: .315 .358 .410

1st: .328 .367 .417
2nd: .257 .331 .341
3rd: .332 .380 .435

1-2: .315 .352 .448
1-3: .395 .389 .493
2-3: .330 .381 .381
123: .303 .318 .394

RISP: .305 .352 .403


Translation: He's a better hitter with men on base. I suggest it's probably because he sees more fastballs.

MG: It's not that Polanco is an undisciplined hitter. He isn't. It's that he very rarely swings and misses which, in turn, means that he usually puts the ball in play before he has a chance to walk. Wade Boggs notwithstanding, it's very rare for a great contact hitter to draw a lot of walks.

It's actually sort of ironic when you think about it because, intuitively, what's not to like about a hitter who makes great contact? But the reality is that, a guy like Ryan Howard, who is about the worst contact hitter in the universe, actually gets on base more often than Placido Polanco.

Correction to last post: There is actually nothing ironic about the fact that great contact hitters often have lower OBPs. The word I was looking for was "counter-intuitive."

Everyone is looking deeply into Polly's stats and thereby declaring that he's actually below-average offensively, and was therefore not a substantial upgrade (although an upgrade nevertheless) over Pedro Feliz. I totally disagree.

Sometimes, baseball fanatics dig into these abscure statistics so much that they forget to look at the overall picture, myself included. This past season, Polanco was injured for 85% of the games in which he played, not to mention the injury was an elbow injury which is about as likely to affect his swing as any other. Despite this, he seemed to be the most consistent guy at getting a hit on our entire team, INCLUDING many guys who were healthy for most, if not all, of the season (Werth, Howard, Ibanez).

Plus, Polanco obviously made a seemless transition to third, not only replacing Feliz's arm, but preventing more balls from entering the outfield than Feliz did.

There's no doubt that Polanco isn't exactly what he used to be, and I do agree that he isn't, offensively, the best 3B or 2-hole in the NL. However, he's a very consistent offensive player with well above average defense and he remains an integral part of our team.

Michael Martinez 1 for 3...dare I say "En Fuego!"

Todd: His defense is stellar and he's a good hitter.

I do think fans tend to reflexively ascribe cause & effect whenever a player has been injured and his performance subsequently drops off. The truth is, not a one of us really knows whether Polanco's second-half drop-off was caused by the injury or whether it was just a case of reversion to his current norms. We know he had an injured elbow, but some injuries affect performance and some don't. Considering that Polanco ended up with an OPS that was nearly identical to the one he posted in 2009 (when he wasn't injured), you won't find me reflexively assuming that the injury was the cause.

I await to see what Polanco does this year before I'll draw any conclusions about why his numbers ended up as they did in 2010. The same analysis goes for Rollins.

Todd has a good point. Polly did have the 2nd highest BA of the regulars, and did get on base more than Jimmy or Vic, despite their highr walk %.

Polanco was having a nice year when he got hurt. His injury shouldn't be chronic or at least you would expect him to be fully recovered by ST. If he is, I think he'll pick up where he was before getting plunked. Comparing Polanco's injury to Ibanez' doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Ibanez' injury was obviously one that took an extended period of recuperation. Much of that recuperation took place while Raul was playing every day. My guess is that if we get a full healthy season out of Polanco Beerleaguer's will learn to love him. A lot.

Polanco is absolutely the least of this team's problems on the diamond or in the lineup. I'm far more concerned with Victorino being able to hit leadoff for a full season or Rollins being able to turn back the clock.

On a side note, I don't know if anyone mentioned the always entertaining Lenny Dykstra and his opinion of an African American prostitute:

http://www.radaronline.com/exclusives/2011/01/exclusive-interview-ex-baseball-star-lenny-dykstra-rants-black-whre-trying-making

"in football they call them jags (just another guy"

Oh. You mean "some dudes."

I have no idea what cause or effect the injury had on his performance, but I do know this: Saying "Polanco was having a very good season before the injury" is ridiculous.

He got hit on April 21! That's 3 weeks of baseball he played before getting hit. 3 weeks. No one can be "having a fine season" in 3 weeks. Guys can hit .650 or .050 over 3 weeks and it has little bearing on their overall production. You can say "he was hitting well for three weeks", but please don't try and make it seem like he was guaranteed to be the same player for the whole season as he was for three freaking weeks.

Gut feel only, but I feel there is a good chance of Polly coming back and putting together a solid (not his previous all star caliber) season offensively and defensively. Maybe Ibanez will surprise us, but I look for more of the rollercoaster ride and streakiness from him, and possible platooning from time to time.

I actually like Ibanez's chances of hitting 20+ HRs this year again especially if he has a good spring training/comes out hot in April.

Modest offensive season that is what he did last year.

awh, I recall making a post awhile back about replacement players compared with league average players. Unfortunately, I couldn't find it.

Basically the point was that, to oversimplify, league average (by definition) pitchers have an ERA+ of 100 and batters have an OPS+ of 100. Granted, there are a lot of other factors, but this is the basic point. If you were to look at the WAR of hitters with OPS+ of 100 and pitchers with ERA+ of 100, they are going to have a positive WAR.

To get the answer to your question about replacement level stats, you would have to look at stats of players with 0 WAR. According to Fangraphs (you have to click WAR to reverse the sort order), three hitters with 0 WAR for 2010 were Carlos Quentin (.243/.342/.479/117 OPS+), Jorge Cantu (.256/.304/.392/83), and Ryan Theriot (.242/.323/.283/69). The Fangraphs calculated WAR value includes defense, which is why the overall value of these players is equal despite the offensive disparity. So for replacement level hitters, you're looking at someone with Quentin's offense and atrociously bad defense to a guy like Ryan Theriot.

For pitchers, the only qualifying starter close to a 0 WAR is Dave Bush, with a 0.1 WAR. He pitched 174.1 innings with a 4.54 ERA and 1.51 WHIP for a 87 ERA+. To expand it beyond qualifying pitchers, you get guys like Jeff Suppan (101.1/5.06/1.65/78), Wade LeBlanc (146/4.25/1.43/86), Dennys Reyes (38/3.55/1.45/111), and Brian Bannister (127.2/6.34/1.63/66). This would indicate that the bar is higher for relievers, which seems to make sense.

The stats for a 0 WAR player probably vary greatly year to year, just as the ERA that corresponds to 100 ERA+ and OPS that corresponds to 100 OPS+ change yearly. I know these stats are kind of all over the place, but I hope it helps anyway...

krukker, thanks.

I know it varies year to year, but it just seems to me that if the saber community really wants more acceptance in general - among the public as well as the baseball community - then they ought to be able to translate their work in to something that's better understood by the average fan.

Seems to me, that though there is a variance on a year to year basis, that long term trends or levels ought to be definable, ie:

.220/.295/.360 = replacement level SS
or
.245/.310/.400 = replacement level OF
.250/.315/.430 = replacement level 1B

say, over a 5 or 10 year period.


the average fan would be much more apt to adopt the lingo as well as become an advocate for the numbers crunching.

If you take defense out of the equation (and I'm not sure whether positional adjustments are made for WAR calculation), it looks like WAR does compare a player's stats to a specific line.

Perhaps the exact numbers you're looking for aren't published because it would reveal Fangraph's internal player value calculations. It would be similar to how a fantasy baseball site publishes a player's ranking in their system, but typically wouldn't publish the exact formula used to calculate it. It would be interesting to know if that's the real reason. Maybe it comes down to dollars. Or maybe it's just a "trade secret" like the Coke formula or something.

jason/phaithful: "If JD Martin can have a 4.13ERA in 145IPs and can be had on a minor league deal - then why would a team want to trade for Kyle Kendrick who makes $2.45M?"

I answered that question in the previous thread. But, to summarize, a team would want to trade for KK because he's YOUNGER and BETTER than Martin.

jason/phaithful: "clout: curious, how can someone defend a replacement level starter in Kendrick to the death, but crucify anyone who tries to make the same case for a replacement level OF in Francisco?"

You took your stupid pills again, didn't you?

The starting rightfielder on a baseball team is significantly more important and difficult to replace than the 6th starter in a 5-man rotation, which is what KK is right now.

"No one can be "having a fine season" in 3 weeks."

Very true. And I see the identical argument being made about Rollins, whose "blazing start" consisted of 7 good games before he went on the DL.

Anyone else see Sandy Alderson saying Chris Young was one of the most dominating pitchers in the league when he was on the Padres?

lol.

That is funny. I just wish it was Omar Manaya saying it instead.

The biggest problem facing this team this year is how they'll pay for all the baseballs that Domonic Brown deposits in the stands. He's gotta be expected to hit atleast 100 homers this year right?

and AWH, thanks for Polly's numbers.

100 if he platoons. Probably closer to 150-200 if they let him play full time.

Kid is a BEAST!!!

MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo ranked Cesar Hernandez as the 7th best 2B prospect in the league.

clout: whatever you say - I'll make sure to monitor MLBTR daily for all the sizzling Kyle Kendrick sweepstakes since he is so younger and better than other options on the market.

I can't believe Tyson Gillies was snubbed from MLB's top 10 OF prospects.

Chris Young's league rankings in 2006 & 2007:

2006: 6th in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, 1st in BAA

2007: 5th in ERA, 2nd in WHIP, 1st in BAA

Kind of sounds to me like one of the most dominating pitchers in the league.

Yankees sign Andruw Jones for 1 year and $2M. He had a .931 OPS vs. LHP last season.

jason/phaithful: Let's see what J.D. Martin does this season compared to what Kendrick does.

Is Cashman a double agent for the Red Sox?

.237 and .252 BABIP in both those years.

clout - Jones was good against lefties, and ought to make a fine platoon player. MY main problem with his year, last year, was that from April 27 until the end of August he went 40/204 with 50 Ks. It was not unproductive, of course, with an OBP (.303)better than, say, Pedro Feliz and 12 homers. I wonder what part of his year, though, is the real Jones at this point.

$2MM is more than I thought he'd get.

"Yankees sign Andruw Jones"....

For a nominal salary. I'm surprised RAJ didn't go after him. Is anyone else? The bench has to be augmented, doesn't it?

Oh please, if Jones got two-mil from us, people here would be screaming bloody murder.

The prospect of both Martinez AND Valdez being on the bench does not excite me at all.

The prospect of both Will Schweitzer AND DPatrone being on Beerleaguer all season does not excite me at all.

There is no way in hell Martinez is going to be on the 25-man roster. Because of his versatility, he's an ok guy to have at Lehigh Valley and, since it's pretty unlikely the Nationals would ever want him back, LV is probably his destination. Barring another move, the 25th roster spot will likely go to Brown, Young, or Mayberry, with Quinlan & Miller as long-shots.

DPatrone - Martinez isn't making this roster out of spring training. My less than bold prediction of the day.

Clout - $1M more than I thought Jones would get. Then again so did Scott Hairston from the Nats.

Totally agree with BAP and MG on Martinez. The Nats won't take him back and he's got no chance of breaking camp with the Phils barring at least 2 catastophic injuries.

Is there any way to track the frequency and pervasiveness of injuries to MLB players?

The reason I ask is that if, for some reason, the frequency/severity of injuries to players has increased in recent years, it may explain some of the contracts that platoon and bench players are getting.

Certainly the Phillies bench played an important part of their success in 2010, with all of the players who hit the DL, as Valdez and Gload/Sweeney filled in nicely, and even Sardinha added some value with 0.2 WAR.

Perhaps some GMs have decided that a quality bench is more important that previously thought.

As far as Hairston is concerned, I'll ask those who would know whether $2MM is too much money for a guy who posted an OPS+ of 99 the last 4 seasons, averaging 364 PA/yr.?

For comparison, Jimmy Rollins' OPS+ the last three seasons is 92, with an average of 581 PA. His OPS for those same 3 years is .737. Hairston's OPS the last 4 years is .742. Jimmy will make 8.5MM in 2011.

Hairston is primarily an OF, so perhaps that's not a great comp.

Vic's OPS+ the last 4 years was 104, with an OPS of .783. Vic will make 7.5MM in 2011.

What should a guy like Hairston make in comparison?

clout: yeah because who will have a better 2011 season between Martin and Kendrick is what the debate was about...

It was Jerry Hairston who got $2M from the Nats.

Scott Hairston signed with the Mets, but I dont think the amount has been released yet.

Oops. my bad, jason.

OK, JERRY had an OPS+ the last three years of 95, averaging 402 PA/yr. Regular OPS was .726.

Same question: what's that worth in comparison?

awh - That was due in part because of his great 2008 season. He is a 35-year old guy who does some things well but is strictly a bench guy. Those guys were getting around $1-$1.5M or so last year.

FA Prices just inflated again this year for bench guys/marginal relievers after being depressed the past 2 offseasons.

jason/phaithful: I guess you and I understand words differently. You questioned why anyone would pay KK's salary when they could get Martin for next to nothing.

The answer, obvious to anyone with a brain, is that KK is much better than Martin. He will do more to help you win than Martin will.

That is the relevance of their respective performances this season.

Now if that is not the point of your original post:

"Why would a team trade for Kendrick and his 2.45M Salary when they could get JD Martin on a non guaranteed contract without trading anything?"

then, please provide a translation.

awh: What's the point of your question about Hairston vs. Rollins?

I hope you guys are right about Martinez. So the bench still needs spots filled. Assumimg Valdez re-signed, who else comes in?

I wouldn't be shocked to see them with one less arm in the pen and Martinez on the bench. I wouldn't go so far as to say that I expect it'll happen, but it wouldn't surprise me.

On a far less interesting note, I wonder if the ip matches up for "Everybody with eyes and a brain" and "Super Smart Baseball Guy Who Knows What LOOGY Means". I'm flattered to have a secret admirer/stalker on BL.

clout: I'm not trying to debate you because I know nothing about Martin that I haven't read yesterday and today from BL posts, but what specifically makes Kendrick > Martin that justifies the difference in salary, the loss of whomever is traded for KK and the fact that he's arbitration eligible in 2012?

I'm calling it pre-spring training while others call it snow fatigue.

So yeah, I'm ready for Spring Training to start.

I cant wait to find out who is in "best shape of their lives" and who has "reinvented his game" and who "has recommitted himself to his defense", "lost 15 pounds" "Working on a curveball, changeup, cutter" etc etc

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