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Monday, January 17, 2011


Gee, it could be a dogfight again this summer.

All the other NL East teams have added new faces for some added spark. The Phillies roster looks about the same.

awh: "guess how many corner OF had +400 PA?"

48, out of a possible 60.

jason, thanks, but that also includes guys like Matsui. Is he a corner OF? Really?

the link is kind of worthless if you dont subscribe with b-ref. I actually dont either, but on my page at the bottom is says a total of 48 player seasons were found.

Actually, jason, clout asked me this:

“awh: Please list the starting corner outfielders in the NL who aren't as good as Benny Fran.”

I complied.

Since you seem to want to sniff clout's butt on this one, do it in reverse – maybe clout will actually do some homework and help you:

Please list the 60 Corner OF starters in MLB who are better than Benny Fran?

jason, I don't subscribe to

I did my initial sorting over at wspn and Matsui showed on the list.

I just linked the page that included them, why do i need to list them?

alright look, my last post on the subject that i started off with a comment "i dont want to get involved":

clout is exaggerating his side and you are exaggerating your side. What a motherfreaking surprise.

The answer is: Ben Fran would not be the worst starting corner OF in the league as clout hints, but he also wouldn't be among the top 30(average) as you hint.

Hey, you want there to be some competition. This isn't the NFC West and who wants it to be?

awh: Most of the outfielders on your list were platoon guys, not everyday starters, or bench guys who played due to injury. And my question was NL, not MLB, since the Phils, you know, play in the NL.

Here are the projected starting corner OF for NL teams:
ATL Heyward & Prado
NYM Bay & Beltran
FLA Stanton & Coghlan
WAS Werth & Morse

CIN Gomes & Bruce
MIL Braun & Hart
STL Holliday & Berkman
CHI Soriano & Colvin
HOU Pence & Lee
PIT Tabata & Jones

SF Burrell & Ross
SD Ludwick & Venable
COL Gonzalez & Smith
LA Ethier & Gibbons
ARZ Upton & Parra

That's a total of 30 starting corner OF. How many of those would Ben Fran beat out on any of those teams? I count 2 or 3.

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So basically the Nats replaced Dunn/Willingham with Werth/LaRoche. Should be interesting to see how that works out. My bet is offensively it is a wash with Werth/LaRoche actually hit less the 54 HRs they got from Dunn/Willingham last year. It does give them a notable defensive upgrade. Spent alot of money to get a marginal upgrade if you ask me.

Even with the Gorzelanny signing though, their starting staff is pretty terrible. 3 veteran journeyman mediocrities in L. Hernandez, Marquis, and Gorzelanny and no Strasburg.

Going to really need a breakout year from one of other starters (Maya, J. Zimmerman, Martin) to win 12-13 games for them to have a legit shot at .500. Don't see it. They won't be the also-rans they have been the past 3 years but they look a lot more to be like a 74 or 75 win team than a .500 team.

Still, even 75 wins would be their 2nd highest win total since relocating to DC in '05 when they won 81 games in their initial season.

jason, I never said he would be among the top 30.

The only thing I have ever said is that he could start on some MLB teams.

clout, thanks for making my point.

Benny Fran could also have a breakout year like Jose Bautista.

awh: Your point was that Francisco was better than 25 or so "starting outfielders" that you listed in the last thread.

That was straw man, of course, since 80% of those on your list weren't starting corner outfielders, but if you want to back off that and say simply that there are "some" teams he could start for, then I agree.

There are 2 or 3 NL teams who are so weak at corner OF that Ben Fran might have a chance to start over the likes of Gibbons and Morse.

Frankly, I don't think he'd beat out Morse.

Oh, and clout, "projected" in 'projected starting corner OF' doesn't mean squat.

Some of those guys may be on the bench themselves by the end of the season.

clout, you're being ridiculous. What defines the starter when there is a platoon situation? Aren't they both starters?

If you disregard salary, how many of the teams that wouldn't start Ben Francisco over their current corner OF would start Domonic Brown? you're ready to annoint Set Smith wiht his 107 OPS+ the second coming? Last I checked he's been pretty inconsistent from year to year. So you think he's a lock to repeat his 2009 season? Or, is he going to repeat his 96 OPS+ 2010?

Parra? Hmmm, while he has a nice looking history in MiL, so far I haven't seen any indication after 884 PA that he's figured out MLB pitching more than the pitchers have HIM figured out. A .261/.308/.371 2010 season and a .277/.317/.389 career line doesn't put him above Ben Fran.

Tabata's OPS+ is 102 after one season. Are ready to call than better than Benny's? Or are you ready to say that because of his track record in the minors he'll be better?

Venable? Same lifetime OPS+ as Benny's, and a MiL slash line that's worse.

And that's what I said above. Some of these guys may wind up being better than Benny, but they haven't PROVEN it yet.

awh: If they both got 450 ABs, Smith would outhit Benny. I agree with you on Parra. I'll take Benny over him. Tabata is one of the better prospects in baseball and it's not even a close comparison with Benny. Venable has more power and speed than Benny and is a better fielder.

The Mets have also signed Chris Young. He's still only 31 & there's plenty of upside there, so he's well worth a flier for a team that needs starting pitching. Sandy Alderson is considerably more savvy than Omar Minaya.

If Benny Fran can platoon and give us something like what he produced in Cleveland, we'll be fine.

Pitching will carry the team, not our platoon OF.

He's a career .806 OPS hitter against LHP. That's where he should be maximized whether its in RF or LF or both. The fact that he's not completely neutered by RHP helps at least.

Just keep in mind that all these guys who have nicked Phils' pitching have not nicked this coming year's version of Phils pitching. How well will any of those dudes do against the Phour Horsemen of the Aphocalypse?

In re: the on-going "Quien es muy macho que Francisco?" argument

I'd take Zobrist for Francisco because after Brown is established, we would have one of the best UTs in the league.

Clout: Parra, Morse, Gibbons, Venable, Colvin, Gomes, Smith for sure. Probably more guys.

Sadly, Carlos Lee is approaching that status. A disaster in the field and a .291 OBP last year. He looks to be in sharp decline.

Also, Jose Tabata hasn't been one of the "better prospects in baseball" in two years. He was overhyped as a Yankee minor leaguer, and it's widely known that his age is significantly higher than reported. His BA rankings go like this:

pre-2007: #27
pre-2008: #37
pre-2009: #75
pre-2010: Not on the list

He's a corner OF with no power. He's honestly about equal to Francisco--Tabata gives you more BA and a little more OBP, Francisco will give you more power. Neither is anything to write home about.

Watch it Jack; yer gonna get schweitzered.

Jack: Wow, you really don't know much about non-Phillies, do you? Gomes, Smith, Colvin and Morse all have better skills.

Tabata is a corner outfielder who hit .299/.346/.400 at age 21 in the BIG LEAGUES.

I thought you were sharper than this, but you are really looking foolish right now. Kind of how you looked on all those "Pedro Feliz is Gold Glover who will hit 35 HRs" posts from 3 years ago.

Clout: Go ahead and google "Jose Tabata age" and see what you find.

For 2011, he's probably comparable to Francisco (better AVG and slightly better OBP, less power), and sure he's probably a guy you'd rather have going forward. But he's nowhere close to one of the "better prospects in baseball." He's likely in his mid-twenties and is a corner OF without power. Unless you're Carl Crawford, that means you're a starter for a second-division team, or a 4th OF on a contender. Kind of like Francisco.

Gomes is strictly a platoon player. He hits righties to the tune of .233/.308/.433 in his career, which is worse than Ben Fran (though he obviously mashes lefties more). He's also a horrible defender and offers less versatility and speed than even Francisco, who could and has played CF in a pinch. No thanks, as a guy who would play everyday. Potentially yes as strictly a platoon guy, but the horrible defense is hard to overcome.

Mike Morse will be 29 this season and has a career .330 OBP in the minors. Francisco was .357 in the minors, with more power as well. Additionally, I can guarantee I've watched far more Nationals games than you have (I actually live in the area), so I know his game rather well. He had a fluke season in 2010, aided by a high .330 BABIP and an unsustainable 19% HR/FB rate. If all you saw was a few games where he hit well and you looked at his 2010 stat line, I could see why you'd like him--he looks good in a uniform and those numbers are nice. But there's far less there than you think there is.

Smith and Colvin I can see the arguments for, but Smith's career numbers on the road are .242/.317/.396. How does that compare to Francisco? Thanks.

I'll grant you Colvin.

Andy: i'm with you about all these Phillie killers of the past.

I cant fathom anyone having their coming out party vs our staff anymore.

Clout: You're still on Pedro Feliz? Really? Let it go, my man. I'd rather not rehash discussion from 2007, but if we are, let's at least acknowledge your desired choice instead of Feliz: Wes Helms.

I think that should settle that matter. Thanks for playing, though.

I got a coworker who rocks a pedro feliz jersey because he said whoever drives in the winning run of the deciding world series game was going to be the name on his jersey.

haha, and because of you bastards i first think of clout and jack bickering when i see the jersey instead of him driving in the final run(and of course his height too).

We gave Feliz about $8.5 million and got 3.5 Wins. It wasnt a terrible deal.

Can we stop harping about it?

The fact that a WFC can be won with Feliz in the lineup and Hamels as the ace should be all the comfort you need that they can win another with Francisco in the lineup and Hamels as arguably the 4th best starter in the rotation.

This team has overcome far bigger obstacles than Ben Francisco starting in RF.

The Mets' offseason acquisitions this season so far:

Paulino, DJ Carrasco, Capuano, Bucholz, Tankersly, and now C. Young remind me of what an offseason under Lee Thomas circa '89 or '90 would look like. Injured pitchers who came on the cheap and minor secondary moves.

Who is the Ken Howell or Steve Ontiveros of this group?

Chris Young is a nice move for the Mets. That being said, I'll put him up against our number 4 starter any day!

"That being said, I'll put him up against our number 4 starter any day!"

One of the most dispiriting Phillies games I ever attended was a Chris Young/Cole Hamels start in '09. The Phillies chased Young fairly early, building something like an eight run lead. In his 09 style, Cole pitched well until about the fifth, after which every third Padre it seemed hit a home run. The Phillies nevertheless had the lead in the 8th, until Madson fumbled it away.

A notable game, because 1) it was the first home game after Harry's death, 2) it snapped my 9 game going-to-a-Phillies-game-and-seeing-them-win streak (preceded before that by a 10 game losing streak (very much feast or famine)).

Of course, I should add that I don't regard Hamels as our fourth, if 1 to 5 is a ranking of best to worst.

Hamels should be 4th to keep it R/L/R/L.

Talent wise, Oswalt had the better year in 2010 too...though if I were a betting man, I'd take Hamels over Oswalt in 2011.

"Tabata is a corner outfielder who hit .299/.346/.400 at age 21 in the BIG LEAGUES."

So clout, are you saying Tabata is capable of this kind of line going forward?:


Please elaborate.

clout, let's see if we can agree.

I, like Jack, will grant you Colvin, but still, his track record is not that much better than Benny's.

Jack pointed out the obvious problem with Smith: So far he's been a replacement level player away from Coors. I actually tried to do a Coors comparison between he and Benny, but Benny has been horrible there in a sample size (14 PA) that is completely meaningless.

The slash line I posted above in my question about Tabata are his career MINOR league numbers. Can he, regardless of his disputed age, REPEAT OR EXCEED those numbers at the MLB level? There may be a few players in MLB history who have do so, but I don't know their names.

Still, my only point in this entire Benny Fran debate has never been that he's a great player - he's not - but has been that he is good enough to start on other MLB teams (and not just the NL) - that is, he's better than some of the starters on other teams.

Guess what? He is.

Kyle's agent hands Ruben a folded piece of paper with the number 4.18 written on it. "What the devil is this?" screams Ruben. Agent responds: "Ever read Beer Leaguer, that is Kyle's K/9 last year. What's your number?"

Is Melky still a starting Corner OF? He was always one of Clout's favorites, maybe not so much now because of last year, but when he was good he was one of Clout's favorites. Maybe we can swing a deal with KC to pry him away. Of course if Fransisco has a good year he'll be everyone's favorite corner OF.

40 more days of this should help Ben creep above AVG COF for 2011.

It amazes me that someone so completely (and sorry for repeating this word but it's unavoidable) MEDIOCRE as Francisco is generating a discussion where one either believes:

Francisco >>> all others


all others >>> Francisco

Really, folks. He's basically a zero WAR because he IS a replacement. He ain't gonna win us a lot of games, but won't lose a lot either. And yeah, there's guys out there who are better, but they will not be playing for Philly at the start of the 2011 season.

Klaus: I also have that game in my memory - i was at Chickie and Petes for the Flyers Pens playoff series.

Only a couple hours later after the Pens scored in OT to stink the Flyers 0-2 in the series, Scott Hairston, who homered earlier, ripped the game winning double off Madson.

awh:"Tabata is a corner outfielder who hit .299/.346/.400 at age 21 in the BIG LEAGUES."

So clout, are you saying Tabata is capable of this kind of line going forward?:


I must be misreading your post... AWH, are you saying that you dont believe a player with a rookie slashline of .299/.346/.400 is unlikley to put up a line of .297/.365/.405 ??

They are almost identical, why are you even asking this? The difference of those slashlines is like 8 walks/HBP and stretching a single into a double.

Now, I don't know why it's such a hard concept for some on this blog to grasp, but I'll expalin it in real simple terms so that even the dummies can understand.

If there is an AVERAGE, usually that means that there are players who are ABOVE AVERAGE. There are also players who are BELOW AVERAGE. (There may also be players who are EXACTLY AVERAGE, though that is very rare - usually they fall on one side of the line or the other.)

But that is, boys and girls, how AVERAGES are using all the players stats and AVERAGING them.

Ben Francisco is a slightly above AVERAGE player.

And getting back to my earlier point, the reason he could start in other OF around MLB is that some of the other starting OF at the MLB level are BELOW AVERAGE.

It's really not a very hard concept to grasp. Is it?

Andy, according to, Benny is 3.3 WAR for his entire career, and for 2008 and 2009 was 2.0 WAR for the Indians, when he played a bit more than he has recently.

So, one could argue that he's a 1.0 WAR player if he started the entire season.

Again, that's above replacement level, but not by a whole lot.

jason, the post I did after the one you are referencing, and then answer the question.

Should say:

jason, READ the post I did about Tabata after the one you are referencing and then answer the question.

awh: i re-read. If Jose walks 8 more times and stretches a single out, he would have reached his minor league slashline in the majors. You are a fool if you think getting 8 extra walks in a full season is out of his realm of ability.

There are 60 starting OF spots in the major leagues. You said benfran is not in top 30. Therefore, Ben Fran is below average.

I think you need to take a week off Beerleaguer, you are mentally drained it seems.

jason, you ignore the basic question:

Do you think Tabata is a candidate who will duplicate or exceed his MiL performance at the MLB level? That's what I'm asking.

If so, then please identify how many times this has happened in MLB history (so we have a refrence point), and the likelyhood that Tabata will do it?

You see, I posted his MiL slash line to try to trap clout, but then thought, in the spirit of honest debate, that I'd tell him what that slash line actually was.

So there it is: It's his MiL slash line.

Do you think, based on 441 PA in one season, that Tabata will equal or exceed his MiL numbers? Or, do you think that MLB pitchers and coaches, may figure him out a little bit?

I await your answer. If you're going to insult someone's intelligence, you should know the difference between mean, median and mode.

Being in the top 30 or bottom 30 has nothing whatsoever to do with the average (mean). What you are discussing is the median.

Will, some people just don't know the difference.

Oh well...

Player, MiLB OPS / MLB OPS

Carlos Ruiz: .755 / .749
Ryan Howard: .936 / .944
Chase Utley: .832 / .894
Jimmy Rollins: .711 / .764
Placido Polanco: .664 / .758
Raul Ibanez: .833 / .823
Shane Victorino: .762 / .770
Jayson Werth: .796 /.848

Basically the whole team. And thats just the first team I even looked at.

If the next post you type isn't "I am wrong and moronic for even keeping this worthless conversation going, only to somehow make myself look even more stupid than before to a point where I will never bring this discussion up again" then I will never respond or read any of your comments again.

and i'll admit, I am stupid and a moron for spending this much time on this subject myself.


awh - Is that offensive WAR, or total? I kinda figured his slightly above average offense is offset a bit by, you know, the other part of his game.

jason, I hope you never respond anyway.

But, than again, you pull the "small-sample-size-head-out-of-your-ass" post.

Take a look at St. Louis:

Molina .703/.688
Pujols .920/.1.050
Schumaker .739/.732
Ryan .724/.658
Freese .918/.773
Holliday .780/.931
Rasmus .852/.786
Ludwick .852/.813

Hmmmm, "And thats just the first team I even looked at."

Only 2 out of 8.

The two that have done it are either All-Star calibre or HOF calibre players.

Come to think of it, every Phillie you listed is either an All-Star calibre (have made an All-Star team or in the case of Ruiz are good enough) or, in the case of Utley, Rollins and Howard have an outside chance of making the HOF (but that's another debate).

So, are you claiming that Tabata is going to be in that type of elite company?

While you're thinking about it go check a few other teams.

You're likely to get the same result.

So..."If the next post you type isn't "I am wrong and moronic for even keeping this worthless conversation going, only to somehow make myself look even more stupid than before to a point where I will never bring this discussion up again" then I will never respond or read any of your comments again.

Desides, jason, you still didn't answer the question.

Or, by you post, are we to conclude that you DO think Tabata will aoutperform his MiL numbers?

Andy, I can't say. I'm not a WAR expert.

Here's Benny's player page. It's listed under his stat lines:

awh: "Do you think, based on 441 PA in one season, that Tabata will equal or exceed his MiL numbers?"

Unless Jack is right about Tabata lying about his age and he's 28, he nearly exceeded them at age 21 in the big leagues last year.

The obvious answer is "yes."

Jack: You keep getting that wrong. You will not find a single post in which I said I preferred Helms as the everyday player. What I said was this: A Dobbs/Helms platoon would be more productive offensively than Feliz and the increased offense would offset the decline in defense. Look at the stats.

Since he's only had two years as a starter, the closest we can come to a valuation might be to average them:

2.7 oWAR, -.7 dWAR = 2 WAR divided by 2 years, a total WAR of 1.

So he's very slightly above average. Everyone move on.

Andy, thank you. That's all I've been saying.

I will say this. I looked up Francisco's minor league numbers? He actually looks like a better hitter than we've seen yet, which might be because he has not received enough playing time here. It is indicative of better than average performance that his minor league career BA is .291 and he's never had a major league season without an OPS below 100.

Given the strength of our pitching staff I can understand Ruben's reluctance to spending a lot of time and energy looking for a deal for a RH OF. I'm willing to be that Ben starts in RF, Blanton is the 5th and Dom is in AAA until the break unless Ben falls apart.

Andy: "He actually looks like a better hitter than we've seen yet, which might be because he has not received enough playing time here."

Well, maybe. But there's also this:

Francisco BABIP as a Phillie:

What happens if that drops to league average?

Andy: "I'm willing to be that Ben starts in RF, Blanton is the 5th and Dom is in AAA until the break unless Ben falls apart."

If Dom is hot in ST, he starts in RF, but predicting what he'll do in ST is impossible. His inability to handle breaking stuff outside and fastballs in on his hands during his brief big league tenure and his Winter League performance certainly do not inspire confidence.

On Blanton, I'm willing to bet he is traded before opening day unless something else happens to give the team salary relief.

clout, interesting question.

Lg. avg. the last 2 seasons in the NL has been .299.

The avg. BAbip in MLB in 2009 and 2010 were .299 and .297, respectively.

Allow me this question: As a rule, do the better hitters in MLB have a better BAbip than average? Doesn't it stand to reason that a better than average hitter "should" have a higher Babip?

Randomly, some career splits:

Pujols career BAbip is .315.
Wilson Valdez: .273
Ryan Howard: .328
Bobby Abreu: .343
Garry Maddox: .307
Larry Bowa: .276
Manny Trillo: .289
Del Unser: .279
Eric Valent: .280
Coco Crisp: .306

Benny Fran: .296

awh: Looks to me like Benny's career BAbip (.296) is just about exactly average, which sounds about right.

But that doesn't answer my question. What happens when the .319 and .302 goes back down to .296 or maybe even lower, as sometimes happens?

On the Blanton trade front, the Yankees are reportedly "kicking the tires" on Millwood and Colon, though I don't know how hard they're kicking.

Carlos Ruiz had a mention on the Colbert Report last night!

How much do the Phillies currently have committed in payroll for the 2011 season, with Blanton? I thought it was somewhere north of 150 million?

I have kind of a hard time with the notion of a team which may wind up with the 2nd or 3rd highest payroll in all of baseball feeling they need to unload a guy basically for "salary relief".

At this point in the spending spree, why not hang on to old Kentucky Joe until later in the season, when other teams might be more desperate for his services and the Phillies may be able to land a nice piece to fill a hole which doesn't currently exist?

Here's a far fetched question:

If the Cardinals cannot come to some sort of agreement with Pujols by his deadline, do you think the cards would entertain a Howard for Pujols package?

Would Howard agree to the trade? (He has a LNTC)

Would Pujols agree subject to an extension?

clout's point on babip is a good one, actually. Hitters, good or bad, tend to get, over time, about the same percentage of hits on the balls they put in play.

(A bad hitter, incidentally, can had a good babip simply because he strikes out a lot. Likewise, someone who never strikes out could have a lower babip but the same average.)

Since he has not gotten consistent playing time, it's hard to know how good he is. He still is, as well, on the good side of 30. He still could improve.

I have trouble, however, imagining much better than .270/.330/.450 (So .780, which ought to be about 105 OPS+). I do not have a hard time imagining, OTOH, .250/.310/.410 (.720, about a 95 OPS+).

Call me a pessimist.

awh - I would love the opportunity to kick Millwood a few times.

Actually, scratch that Pujols/Howard question. If Pujols were approached about a trade, or it became clear that STL was trading him because they couldn't or didn't want to pay him, he might never agree to a trade/extension because becoming an Fa allows him to choose his next destination.

He would solve the "RH bat in the Phillies' lineup" problem, wouldn't he?

Gil Meche retired according to mlbtr. His 2011 deal was supposed to pay him $12MM. I wonder if they worked out a buyout.

Does this open up KC as a potential destination for Joe Blanton? They obviously freed up 'some' money.

Does this mean Gil Meche will never again be mentioned in reference to the Phillies looking for mid-season pitching?
Next on the list....Ron Mahay

Sorry, I mean Jeff Suppan than Ron Mahay or is my order all messed up...should Russ Springer or Jason Marquis be higher...

Cody Ross avoids arbitration and gets a whopping $6.3M!!! And people think Ben Francisco is overpaid!

When Ben Franc singlehandedly wins the NLCS, he will make another 5 mil.

CJ, Cody "HR" Ross is a WS hero.

Don'cha know?

I don't know if you all know that this will actually be Cliff Lee's third stint with the Phillies. I didn't realize how deep his attachment to the Phillies went until I learned that he played for the 1921-1923 Phillies team. In those days he was right-handed and played the outfield hitting over .300 each season. (Casey Stengel and Greasy Neale were among his teammates).
Now if Cliff could resurrect his right arm to play in the outfield again as he did in the '20's, saving his left arm for his pitching days - we just finally might have this season's starting outfielder answer in the endless debate on the pluses and minuses of Ben Francisco!

do any of you guys have jobs?....I mean seriously....

If you actually look at Ross's numbers, the contract is not really out of proportion to his on-field performance. $6.5M is about what you'd expect for a better than average starting corner outfielder, which is exactly what Ross has been over the last 3 years. Dare I say, he's even better than Ben Francisco.

KK signs for $2.45MM per Heyman.

"If the next post you type isn't "I am wrong and moronic for even keeping this worthless conversation going, only to somehow make myself look even more stupid than before to a point where I will never bring this discussion up again" then I will never respond or read any of your comments again." This may be the most pathetic thing I've ever seen in print. Stop being a crybaby because other people disagree with you (and for good reason).

"do any of you guys have jobs?....I mean seriously....
Posted by: Super Smart Baseball Guy Who Knows What LOOGY Means"

Gee...I wonder who this could be.

Andy, minor correction. WAR is wins above replacement, not wins above average. Average WAR tends to be about 2 in a season. Ben Fran looks to be about average, maybe a touch less, based on his recent performances, extrapolated over a full season of PA.

Clout, there's nothing particularly unusual about Benny's BABIP, as far as I can tell. Over the last three years he's gone 287, 297, 302, which all seem to be right in line with league average.

Again, I don't really know what the fuss is about. Benny looks like a solid 4th outfielder or a good platoon option if you're pessimistic, or if you're more into optimism, a semi regular with a touch of upside left. The Phillies seem intent on finding out this spring, so let's all hope he kills the ball, or that Dom does instead.


Will Schweitzer...who am i?

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