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Friday, January 21, 2011

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He's more of a Polanco style 2B than an Utley style but he's a legit prospect. Hopefully he continues to develop.

He fell to #20 on the fans vote at PhuturePhillies simply because far too many voters over there have no idea how the minors work.

Plus, NEPP, you refused to join me in voting for him because you have a thing for Domingo Santana.

;P

Santana is in his 3rd pro season when most US prospects are seniors in HS. His upside is legit.

Actually, what amazes me is that some folks continued to prefer Harold Garcia and, amazingly, Austin Hyatt. And some people there voted for Derrick Mitchell which kinda says everything right there.

I still think Jiwan James at #11 was the most ridiculous of the votes so far.

NEPP - I agree, actually. I'm a big Santana fan. I was just yanking yer chain.

NEPP - But he got dem tools, baby. Jiwan James is like Makita.

I thought the Mitchell thing was a joke at first...but they kept at it. Same with Hyatt. Suddenly, Hyatt is "throwing mid-90s" blah blah blah. Or perhaps he sits 92ish like all the game reports state. Just because a guy hit a velocity once in relief doesnt mean he will or could do it regularly.

LOL: "to get chubbed up about"


Yeah, the Derrick Mitchell write-ins were truly bizarre.

Jiwan James may have been a reach there, but I don't think i'd call it "ridiculous".

I'd put James down around 18-20 if it were me. He's a long-shot at best due to the late position change and raw skill set.

It's nice to see something like 27/26 K/BB from one of these kids for a change.

Yeah...its definitely nice to see some actual baseball skills out of a prospect instead of "he's raw but projectable" or "Sure he struck out 150 times in 250 ABs but WOW, look at those tools!"

Domingo Santana at #13 was slightly surprising to me. He struggled last year, probably due to him moving along too quickly, but NEPP is right. The kid is 18 years old and is prospect with a lot of promise.

(Phone rings four times, answering machine clicks on...)
"Hey, this is JC, I am either getting with the ladies or throwing heat..leave a message" (click)
"Yo JC, you gotta help me man, YO, if you are there pick up, bro...come on..okay, guess not... gimme a call back...for real, bro...peace...this is San Larazo, talk to you later I guess..."

If Hernandez can continue to play good defense, get on base at the .374 clip he's done so far, and steal bases at the 75+% rate, he may well have a future in MLB.

Andy, I'm not ranking them, but what's wrong with Austin Hyatt? He's a little old for the level, but he had a nice year in 2010. If he can make the adjustment to AA this season, and perhaps get pushed to AAA (like Happ did in one season), we'll see if they really have anything in him.

Have you seen him pitch? What's his stuff like?

JW, in the Venezuelan Summer League, Hernandez had a 33/22 BB/K ratio. Granted, not the best competition in the world, but the kid was only 18, when most US kids would have been seniors in HS.

Weitzel- 'bout damn time you got of Facebook. We Should Be GMs will friend you later today.

Also, glad to see you brought the humor today with the "elfin" jab and "chubbed up about" quip.

I don't know about elfin, he looks part Gelfling.

This is totally off-topic, but I was just over at Phils-ville (JW has a link onthe left).

The third topic down features a video of a little girl who's dream it is to heckle David Wright in person.

LMAO funny.

Go take a look.

Forget elf jokes, though. If he makes it he'll be L'il Cesar. You can book it now.

awh - She's livin' large.

Vlads is still out there, what would he cost the Phillies? My thinking is you can get him on the cheap even given his great 2010 season, there's your everyday RF solution. He'd hit 35 here even if he missed a month.

Joe, the problem is that injuries have made Vlad a defensive liability.

Sad, too, because when he was with the Expos he was pretty good defensively.

Vlads was an awesome fielder in his day. But no matter who will be playing RF this season they will not be defensive stars, I say give it a shot, given his age and condition he may settle for a platoon. Plus a great mentor for Brown who probably grew up watching him play.

Andy, I went over to the Onion SportsDome.

The original unedited version is posted there:

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/channels/sportsdome/

If you have younger kids I wouldn't recommend it.

It's pretty raw - R-rated, IMO.

But "funner" than the version on Phils-ville.

Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Guerrero
Victorino
Francisco
Ruiz
?

Vlad can't play out there anymore.

As others have noted, it's really a shame because Vlad was one of the best pure all-around players I've ever seen when he was younger. He won the MVP with Anaheim, but his last couple years in Montreal were unbelievable. He was consistently a .300/.400/.600 hitter with 40 HRs, 20 SBs, and a gun in RF (though his range was never great).

Joe C, more likely it would be:

Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Guerrero
Ibanez
Victorino
Ruiz


Though IMHO, Vic and Polly ought to be flipped.

I agree he's not the player he was, but isn't he the best option out there? Fills your right handed bat need and your other RF platoon man? In this park he can duplicate the year he had offensively with Texas. It's more a statement on how little options are out there, but we can't go with what we have.

390/400 SLG? OK, he's not a 5 tool player, but you don't need one for a shortstop. Can he defend, can he get on base at a good clip, is he fast, those are my 3 requirements for a good shortstop. 4 out of 5 tools, basically.

So if his OBP is .350 or better, great. Hopefully he keeps progressing then.

As for Guerrero, hell NO! There's a reason teams look at him exclusively as a DH. He can't run anymore. Putting him in the OF regularly is just asking him to hurt himself. So for an NL team, he's essentially a RH power bat off the bench, not a full time player. Even as a DH with Texas he wore down over the stretch (his stats were little better than league average), and this was without playing in the field regularly. So he hasn't aged well at all. He'll be 36.

Unless the Phillies get an RH bat through trade, Francisco is basically it, and he's actually a slightly above average RF, statistically (last year NL average OPS for RF's was .778, for AL it was .791).

Francisco's OPS+ year by year:
2008 (499PA) : 105
2009 (459PA) : 106
2010 (197PA) : 104

His numbers will almost certainly see a boost hitting behind Ryan Howard as well. So if you can find a league average free agent who can defend well, and be cheaper than 1.5 million (Francisco's arb salary is 1.175 million), I'll be all ears.

AWH totally forgot about Rauuuuul. I agree Vic and Polly can be flipped, just thinking of what the opening day lineup would look like, and from the sounds of Cholly Vic may be in the doghouse and therefore start out batting low.

NO! Increasing the PA volume is awful. They can turn up Dan Baker, if they must, but turning up the volume on music and assorted BS is a terrible idea. Has anyone been to an NBA game lately? Didn't think so, but if you end up at one notice how annoying and needy the whole thing feels. The Phillies don't need that vibe.

Jack, Vlad is also a Phillie killer. I hater it when he came to the plate when they played the Phils.

He'd be a lock for the HOF and considered the greatest RHH of all time if he had only hit against the Phillies pitching of that time:

Lifetime vs the Phillies: .371/.465/.739


During his peak years from ages 22 - 32 (11 seasons - never hit below .307):

.325/.392/.581

Would have preferred Andruw Jones instead until the Yanks grabbed him. At least he would have been better defensively, worse with the bat though.

"Can he defend, can he get on base at a good clip, is he fast, those are my 3 requirements for a good shortstop. 4 out of 5 tools, basically. "

If he's a 2B this low, I don't think he'll ever be a SS.
If he turns out to be the reincarnation of Luis Castillo (of an earlier era, obviously), that would be a very nice thing.

Yeah, what's up with the early doghouse for Vic? I'm thinking it is the Clearwater Strategy to allow time for Rollins to make peace with his body in yoga class while Vic and Cholly banter.

Vlad 2010:

.300/.345/.496, 29 HR, 115 RBI


"(his stats were little better than league average),"

Ummm, Godfather....Padrino, what do you think is league average?

Vlads numbers are first ballot HOF all the way. His years with a brutal club in Montreal were unbelievable, and he single handedly crushed the Phillies game after game while he was there.

Vlad and the Big Hurt are probably my all-time favourite non-Phillies. Vlad killed us for years but it was cool to watch.
My favorite Vlad story is the time he was on first and running on the pitch, which was a fly out. By the time it was caught he was nearing third and tried to cut across to first, bypassing second all together. So much love and respect for Vlad. If the Phillies were a non-contender I would want him here just for kicks.

Can we sign Vladdy and Pedro?

I agree Thomas was awesome as well. Everytime you thought he had an off year and was on the decline he came back with 45-130 and over .300 average. Didn't the Phils pass on him for Jeff Jackson?

Yeah after seeing him play RF in the playoffs last year for Texas, there is no way I put him in the field. At this point he is strictly a DH. I'm just hoping D Brown wins the RF job outright in ST.

Rube won't sign Vlad because we're getting "younger and more athletic."

{tee-hee}

Though I love how they both hit, I think at this point, Manny could play OF better than Vlad and that is not saying anything.

Different topic:

Chooch is getting some love from Jayson Stark on his All-Underrated Team:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=6044419

Finally the truth comes out about Fielder Jr. Vegeterian my a$$:

Prince Fielder Explains Complexities Of Salary Arbitration Using Cheeseburgers

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/prince-fielder-explains-complexities-of-salary-arb,18897/

facebook. gross. necessary i GUESS, but gross.

Craig,
Come on, it's necessary for us to see which Beerleaguers are really fat high school girls who wear "Mrs. Utley" jerseys to the park and email the team for pictures.

If Hernandez were capable of playing SS, he'd already be doing so. He's a 2B.

***Prince Fielder Explains Complexities Of Salary Arbitration Using Cheeseburgers***

Is anyone else thinking of that Phil Hartman SNL skit when he plays Bill Clinton...


"There's gonna be a whole bunch of things we don't tell Mrs. Clinton..."

Ronnie Belliard is still available. Played for 825K last season.

I wonder if he has anything left in the tank?

mlbtr has a nice rundown of the FA SP still available.

They obviously affect the trade market for Blanton.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/remaining-free-agent-starters-by-innings-pitched.html

I'm pretty nuetral on Hernandez. I guess his plate discipline is his greatest strength and it surely is a crucial skillset - but nothing I've read or heard really gets me too high on his status as a prospect. I mean what are we talking about here, the next coming of Jason Donald?

I think he's probably a better defender than Donald but obviously has less pop in his bat.

Andy: How did Moose Mattair do?

NEPP: Actually, the position switch is a reason to OVERRATE James, not underrate him. To put up the numbers he did in only his sceond season asa position player is no small feat.

That said, most toolsheds are gambles that fail. But James is like sitting with a pair of Kings and a Jack in 5-card stud. Golson was like sitting with a pair of 3s. Hewitt was like playing with 4 cards.

****To put up the numbers he did in only his sceond season asa position player is no small feat.****

Let's see what he does outside of Low A ball.

NEPP: I totally agree with that and want to see the same thing from Hernandez, who is 20, which is not young for NY-Penn.

AWH:

Context of Line is Guerrero wearing down over the stretch. Therefore, that line about being "his stats were little better than league average" refers to his performance in the second half.

To wit:
AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/
1st Half: .319/.364/.554/.919
2nd Half: .278/.322/.426/.748
AL Average for DH 2010: .252/.332/.425/.757

Ergo, my statement is correct.

Read better, please.

***I totally agree with that and want to see the same thing from Hernandez, who is 20, which is not young for NY-Penn.***

So do I.

clout - fortunately no one's voting for the Moose. But Overbeck's already made it onto the slate, right next to Mitchell.

"I guess his plate discipline is his greatest strength"

No. He gets on base and is really fast and he plays good defense. The fact that he also has good plate discipline does not make THAT his greatest strength.

Isn't it elvin?

I would like to see what Hernandez can do above the NYPL as well. However while he is not young for the league he is certainly not old for it either, age appropriate would be the most accurate description.

I wanna see an infield of Cesar, Galvis and Mike Martinez at 3B. Let Chooch play first.

I want to see Hernandez standing beside the GALVISNATOR (age 21) for a size comparison.

I know someone tossed this out there before:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=6044419

but, damn, I'd like to be young, upcoming team with any 3 of these guys -- Chooch included.

I sure hope our historically great starting 4 don't have injury problems. Because our SS, 1B, 2B, 3B, and CF all got hurt last year. Heck, Blanton, Moyer, Madson, Durbin, and Lidge -- even Chooch -- went down for a spell.

I guess that's why they play the games.

Manny signed for $2 Million?

Manny and Damon to Tampa. This is bizzare.

Boras pitched the idea to the Rays as a "package deal". A Vet Package, what a guy.

and Vernon Wells got traded. amazing.

I still can't wrap my head around the Wells deal.

The Wells deal is simple: Somewhat of a salary dump by Toronto, who got back a decent young player in Napoli, and a declining OF in Rivera.

Gee, do you think they did better than the Phillies did in the Abreu trade?

Why would the Angles take him on. The Blue jays won so big on this. He's making $23 mill next year. His contract is massively backloaded. It is insane for the Angels. I can't sort out why they did it.

Mike Napoli is a 28-year old catcher with a career 118 OPS+.

You can make a legitimate argument that he's a better baseball player right now than Vernon Wells. This trade is unfathomably bad for the Angels, and there is no rational explanation for it. You don't give up equal players when one is under team control for below-market salary and the other is signed to the worst contract in baseball.

Looks like Vlad isn't going to Baltimore after all. Perhaps the Rays can go for the trifecta of living statues in the outfield.

It's impossible to defend the Angels part of this deal because of the terrible Wells contract, but they are getting money from the Jays and they unloaded their own bad contract in Rivera. Plus, Napoli is a bad defensive catcher more suited to DH.

The Angels are hoping against hope that Wells can somehow find the form he showed in his youth.

Hey why can we get a rapidly aging fielder who signing to more than one year is a big mistake who will misplay balls at the most inopportune time...oh, wait a second...

I heard $5 mill from the Jays, which is nothing. This is a strange deal. I don't get it.

Even if Wells has the same kind of year he had in 2010, then he still won't approach the value of his contract.

On MLB Network last night Verducci said the move of Hunter to RF is the right one because at this point Wells is a better CF.

I found that very interesting because, based on the limited number of games I've seen him play, my view of Wells is that he has "Jones Syndrome" - that is, he got fat and happy like AJ and lost a step or two in CF. I haven't seen Hunter much since he went to LAA, so I'll take Verducci's word for it, but IMHO, Wells isn't remotely close to as good as the guy who won 3 straight GG by the time he was 27.

OTOH, b-r.com has him at 3.4 WAR in 2010, and fangraphs has him at 4.0 WAR.

If, the saber's are to be believed, and 1 WAR is worth $5MM (I read that somewhere - correct me if I'm wrong), then then he was worth somewhere between 17 - 20MM in 2010.

Personally, I disagree.

Okay, we discussed this a couple of months back when I suggested picking up the Angels spare before but...I am still under the impression they have a spare RH OF at this point. Those not closely watching CA of LA baseball...who is their expected lineup now? I believe they still have an expendable OF.

Yes, his name is Bobby Abreu. Perhaps you've heard of him.

I will pick him up from the airport tonight if they make it happen.

The best move for the Angels defensively now would be Wells and Hunter in the corners with Bourjos in CF. Abreu should stick to his best position, "hitter."

Wells is the most overpaid player in baseball right now, and I don't think it's even close. Panic move by the Angels. If they were prepared to pay 23 mil per they could have had Crawford easily. Hell, it would've been smarter to give Beltre 23 mil a year than take on Wells' contract.

I am very disappointed about the Wells trade. I always hoped it would be the Mets that picked up his bloated back filled contract.
Now I have to hope they resign Reyes to a 7 year deal and he blows out his hammy dancing in the clubhouse.

The Angels went hard after Crawford & didn't get him. Then they went hard after Beltre and didn't get him. I guess they had money to burn so they decided to burn it.

" If they were prepared to pay 23 mil per they could have had Crawford easily."

Chris, that is exactly right.

The amazing thing is that in the Crawford deal, the HIGHEST annual salary is 21MM in 2017. The same is true of the Werth contract - 21MM.

They are both, IMHO, better palyers right now than Vernon Wells.

Woke up to the Wells trade...thought I was in bizarro world when I saw it.

What in the world are the Angels thinking? Are they getting a TON of money in return?

The stupidity of the Vernon Wells trade is so indisputable that it has even produced unanimous agreement among Jack, clout, NEPP, and awh.

And Lo, he opened the sixth seal and there was a great earthquake. The sun turned black like sackcloth and the moon turned red.

the wells trade is one of the worst i can remember (for the angels). if they had received $25 million it might have made some sense, but i'm not even sure about that. the jays gm locked up exec of '11 even if he sits on his hands for the next 11 months.

Vernon Wells makes $23 million this year...I mean, damn.

Even if you "account" for that $5 million and add it all to this year, its $18 million. Anyone want to take a shot on what his line will be this year? He'll have to repeat his 2010 and continue to do so until the end of his Age 35 season to make the contract even somewhat reasonable. And that doesnt include giving up Napoli. Granted Napoli doesnt have the greatest defensive reputation but his bat behind the plate is well worth putting up with him.

Again, Napoli might be poor defensively, but he's a 28-year old catcher who has a 118 OPS+ and who made $3.6 million last year.

He could be Edward Scissorhands back there and that's still about 15 times more valuable than Vernon Wells and his contract.

The Angels probably could have gotten Wells simply by offering to take on his salary...and yet they said "here have Mike Napoli too". I mean...damn.

Somehow figure out a way to trade Blanton or Kendrick for Galaraga.

BAP - "The Angels went hard after Crawford & didn't get him. Then they went hard after Beltre and didn't get him. I guess they had money to burn so they decided to burn it."

I doubt they went very hard after either player if they had this much money to burn...if they had offered Beltre 4/86 (what Wells will make over the next 4 years) he would have jumped at it in a second. They would have signed a more valuable defensive and offensive player at a more valuable position, which also happened to be a major need for them. Instead they're paying that money to Vernon Wells. And they gav away legitimate major leaguers for the right to do so. Their GM should be fired on the spot. That is pure incompetence.

""The stupidity of the Vernon Wells trade is so indisputable that it has even produced unanimous agreement among Jack, clout, NEPP, and awh."


And simultaneously!

It is, indeed, a bizarro world at times.

I LOVE this trade.


(Actually I'm only saying that so the world doesn't end.)

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