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Saturday, January 29, 2011


Hard guy not to root for and like. Basically works hard, says the right thing, and gives you unquestioned effort.

Just hope his body is still willing but some common sense by Cholly and Mackanin would help this year too. Give him an off-day at least every 2 weeks especially vs. a tough LHP starter or a day game after a night game.

Ditto, MG.

Spring fever setting in early this year.

It's a contract year. He rakes in '11!

Like you said, MG.

I hope raul has a great season and helps the phillies to another world series berth. And then we remember him fondly as he puts on a different uniform in 12'.

Good story, JW. We can only hope that Rollins did something similar.

Ibanez first half: .243/.326/.397 - .269BABIP
Ibanez secnd half: .309/.375/.494 - .359BABIP

Don't have his LD% numbers by half, so hard to draw concrete conclusion and also considered small sample size by BABIP standards, but sure looks like Ibanez was a pretty big result of luck in both halves.

Limoguy: He did. He started local yoga-based workouts run by his wife immediately after the season.

Lorecore: Maybe. The thing I remember about Raul's second half was that he was taking the ball the opposite way a lot more. He was catching up to fastballs a little more.

Last Thread: "...6'8" 3B though late in games would really a boost to a team's 'no doubles down the line' defense..."

The real question would be whether someone that big would be able to dive to make plays. 'Cause defense is especially helped by an infielder's Scrappiness Quotient.

It'd be great if Ibanez had enough of a contract year to get us a sandwich pick when he leaves.

Andy for the Phils to get a sandwich pick wouldn't they have to offer him arb?
What type of year would he have to have not to except Arb?

Barring a complete collapse in 2011, I'd welcome Ibanez back at the right price.

Yoga, eh JW?

Pardon my skepticism if that's all he did.

Yeah, they won't offer Ibanez arb, so the picks won't matter.

Ibanez would have to be a disaster to not at least rank as a Type B FA, though. He was ranked as a Type A coming off this past season (though that was heavily influenced by his power surge in 2009, as the rankings take the last two seasons into account).

Jason is spot-on about Raul's second half. He drove the ball into the left-center gap pretty damned well. At first I thought it was because of a slower bat speed but clearly he was driving the ball on the outside part of the plate to left-center field.

There is not much better for fans than to root for a class act like Ibanez.

limoguy - Agreed. Yoga does help with overall flexibility & core strength but I am kind of dubious on JRoll saying healthy if that is the main thing he is relying upon to not blow out a leg muscle again this year. Need more than that entering your mid-30s.

Ibanez is one of those guys I am actually interested to see what kind of stats he actually puts up in spring training. If you look back over his career, a strong spring training almost always follows him getting out to a strong start in April.

Phils really need that because they have a couple of guys on this team who are pretty notorious 2nd half hitters (mainly Howard and JRoll).

I see Bill James has his 2011 outlook out.
They project Brown will hit .288 with 33 doubles, 4 triples, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, 84 runs scored and 28 stolen bases in 548 at-bats(.346/.505/.851). Those are some seriously huge numbers for a rookie.


Phils really do have a couple of interesting players in terms of their production and time of year.

- Howard is a notorious 2nd half hitter who has had some mighty struggles in his career in April. His numbers are down all around and his power numbers don't perk up until well into May.

- JRoll is also a guy who always hit better in the 2nd half of the season too (only 1 full-time year in MLB with better numbers before the ASB) although his rep/numbers are that he gets out to some okay starts in April, hits a notable lull in May/June, and begins to hit as July comes around.

- Vic is another guy who has a rep of not hitting that much in April and colder weather that the numbers bare out with dips in April & Sept/Oct.

- Ruiz is also generally a slow starter to in April and every year since he became the full-time catcher in '07 he has had a notable 'summer swoon' offensively in June and/or July where he goes a month or so with horrendous offensive production (OPS of .550 or less) & an automatic out.

- Utley is a guy who typically gets out to a strong start especially from a power perspective. As the season wears on, his numbers decrease and his power decreases in half on a per HR/AB by Sept. Still amazed he hit all of those HRs in the '09 postseason.

- Ibanez is a notoriously streaky hitter who has had some great/awful April missed it but if he a strong showing in spring training it almost always carries over to April along with at least one other crazy hot streak during the season of a few weeks.

- Polanco also has a rep of hitting a bit better as it warms up but he is probably the most consistent regular the Phils have.

Generally though this is a team has a number of regulars who hit better offensively after the ASB. Not a coincidence that there record also begins to really perk up too then although the annual pitching reinforcements via trade after the ASB have helped alot too.

J-roll added yoga to his routine. e thinking was that he never bothered to stretch before and last year he had leg problems so he wanted to work on that specifically. This is in addition to his prior workouts which obviously involved running and weight training. It isn't as if he sat arounding eating nachos and then did 30 min of yoga with his wife.

I just hope JC Romero doesn't take Raul vitamin shopping in Cherry Hill.


Wayne: James' projections are heavily dependent on guessing right about games played.

If Dom Brown starts the season in Trip A then you can throw that projection out the window. If he tears it up in ST and wins the RF job, then James has a chance to be close.

FWIW, in projecting another rookie power hitter who was rated among the top 3 prospects in baseball in his debut year, Jay Bruce, James offered this: .308/.356/.602

Here's what Bruce actually produced: .254/.314/.453

On the other hand, James projected Jason Heyward to have an .836 OPS in HIS rookie season and Jason put up an .849.

The folks at "The Book" view James' projections as often too high on the hitters and too low on the pitchers.

I should probably add that neither Bruce nor Brown was as highly praised by scouts as Heyward, who is arguably the best prospect to come along since Barry Bonds.

clout, Heyward is one of those rare players who makes MLB by the age of 20.

Other notable players (and I'm not placing Heyward in their category) who have made the show by that age or earlier are guys like Mays, Williams, Ruth, Musial, and Yount.

The list also includes a number of guys who never panned out, but by and large, if you look at the HOF, almost all of those guys were full-time players in their early '20s.

I don't care what brown does, I still think they desperately need a legitimate right handed power hitter.

Bruce was BA's #1 overall prospect in 2008 and Brown was #1 midway through last year, so it's not like they are chopped liver.

they don't desperately need anything right now

clout - Good points about James and his projections for Brown. Frankly, they are ridiculous even if Brown does win the full-time in RF in April.

Jbird: Exactly right, which is why the gap between James projection and Bruce's performance is worth noting.

Still, if Brown matches what Bruce did in his rookie year even if it doesn't come close to James, I doubt anyone would complain. I sure wouldn't.

Clout, you think Heyward was more touted than The Kid?

Clout: Bill James really predicted a .602 SLG for Bruce in his rookie year? That's shockingly high. Do you have a link for that? I find it hard to believe. If that is true, I will definitely have to take his predictions with a giant grain of salt (which I do already for anyone trying to predict rookie performance).

Whereas I predicting an average season from last year (pretty much identical to what he put up), this season I'm predicting a bounce back (.285, 22 HR, 95 RBI).

I won't predict his counting stats because they're based on playing time, but something in the range of .270/.340/.450 wouldn't surprise me, on the slightly optimistic side. So basically, Raul Ibanez from the past couple seasons.

I will say that his plate discipline is a lot better than his major-league K/BB ratio from last year (24/5) might indicate. His minor league stats are much better than that, and I actually thought he showed a good eye at times. In fact, in his limited playing time, he saw 4.46 P/PA, which would have been 2nd in all of baseball had he qualified.

Yeah, loving the bearded look for Raul, kinda cuts down on his resemblance to a turtle. Love that he's so focused this year. Should be interesting to see how a bunch of these guys bounce back from down years.

So..."Raul Ibanez is in the best shape of his life"???

SPRING TRAINING NEWS STORY TIME HAS BEGUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If Brown puts up those numbers, I'll eat my laptop.

Hey, whaddaya mean it's been done before?!?

The looking-for-a-home-look beard worked for Werth in his last year.

Hopefully he loses the beard. Arriving to spring training with a beard means you hit .120 with RISP!

Hugh,are you out there? Do they have Tastykakes in Pittsburg? Just picked up a box of koffee kakes w/Steelers emblems all over. Says "proud partner of the Pittsburg Steelers". Seems like a fast switch from all the Eagles boxes.

Jack: It's in the Bill James Handbook for 2008.

You could look it up, as Casey Stengel used to say.

Jack: Totally agree on Dom's plate discipline. The K/BB in MLB looked bad because he could not hit fastballs in on his hands or breaking pitches on the outside corner.

Obviously, he will have to make adjustments if he's to be successful.

I think it was hinted at but 50% of the players who male the show at 20 end up in the HOF.

"Yeah, loving the bearded look for Raul, kinda cuts down on his resemblance to a turtle."

My fiance calls him ET.

Why does J-Roll's offseason program of yoga with his wife not reassure me that his leg problems won't continue in 2011?? Raul is atleast working with an established stength and flexibility coach.

I think he's focusing on Yoga b/c of reports of his injuries being due to poor stretching. It also is likely do to aging, but he seems to be trying to get loose. Oh, he can check out the ladies in tights as well.

At the risk of sounding like a hippie-dippie Californian, yoga can actually be very rigorous.

I coach wrestling in south jersey and we do yoga all the time. It would actually be perfect for some that keeps blowing out leg muscles.

If he's actually on a program, I don't have a problem with it. I would be more comfortable if it were with an outside professional instructor, as opposed to his wife. I don't have nayhting against her in the least; sometimes, a professional perspective is necessary

Bottom line: If Rollins, Utley and Howard return to something near their career norms,we can get by offensively without Werth, even without a trade for a right handed bat. But they have to be on the field to do that.

I'm less concerned about Rollins' health than about the fact that his offense has stunk two years in a row. Hopefully, his wife can add some hitting tips to the yoga regime.

"something near their career norms"

I keep hearing this and keep thinking:
1) Offensive production is moving in a downward direction in general which means that something has changed - perhaps the size of the strike zone for instance - leading to decreased home run production for EVERYBODY including the Phillies. They will never do in 2011 what they did in 2008.

2) They are all on the downward side of 30. Don't set your hopes for all three to increase in productivity, if any of them.

3) The Phils will win the division this year based on their rotation not on their offense. (Which is not to say they have a weak offense, just that it is not as nearly dominant as it once was.)

I always thought Raul looked like Lord Voldemort in the first Harry Potter movie.

Andy is spot on.

Besides, what would career norms be for Rollins at this point?

Real yoga is a hell of a workout. I did it when I was rehabbing my back injury to help build core strength and flexibility.

Still, I'd rather he go to the same leg guy that Jeter used a few years back.

Adding Lee and subtracting Werth is a substantial net gain in terms of the Runs Scored - Runs Scored Against difference. Having Oswalt for a full year is another plus. This additional cushion enables the Phils to award the RF job to Brown even if he is only OK in spring training. He can learn on the job at the major-league level.

I think Ibanez will perform at an acceptable level in 2011. If he does, I wouldn't mind his return in 2012 at a sharply reduced salary. Since the LF job will be Singleton's as soon as he's ready (probably in 2013), the Phils should not be signing any veteran corner outfielder to a long-term contract.

According to the video, if I want to be a good baseball player, I need to grow a beard and squat 85 pounds?

Isn't Rollins wife a fitness instructor? Maybe she isn't a world class trainer of professionals, but I don't think he's slapping in some 15 year old Jane Fonda VHS tape either.

derek - I love Singleton. But before you award him LF remember that he's a 1B who's never really played OF as a pro. AND remember that he still hasn't hit the threshing floor of AA baseball yet. I do believe that Singleton will be a MLB player and a great player. I've loved everything I've heard about his ability to learn and stay focused. But it's an egg, not a chicken.

Also keep in mind that a lot of the position players considered "prospects" of one kind or another in the Phils' system are OFs. One or another of them might beat JSing to the bigs.

I'm not a "yoga guy" per se, but just to give some perspective on those ripping J-Roll for doing yoga with his wife. If memory serves, isn't his wife a personal trainer and strength and conditioning coach? I thought she opened a gym in South Jersey that dealt specifically with strength and conditioning?

I just wanted to point that out because I think it's a bit disingenuous to say that he's just "doing yoga with his wife." She's a professional and obviously someone he trusts. What's wrong with that?

Damn. Edmundo beat me to it.

Andy - You make a valid point. It will take awhile before we know if the egg will become a chicken.

That said, there's no need to make a commitment in 2011 to a corner outfielder from outside the organization. Ibanez, Brown, Francisco and company should have things covered for the upcoming season.

I don't think the transition to LF is a big worry. I also don't think that Gillies or James are serious long-term competition for LF.

Let's see what Singleton does in 2011. If he reaches AA during the season, we can start to think we have a chicken.

Yo, new thread

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