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Saturday, January 01, 2011

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1st, I am the greatest Beerleaguer ever!!!!(Conan the conqueror pose)

Happy and Healthy New Year to all the regular and irregular posters here. Thanks JW for a great year!

When it comes to J-Roll's offense post-2007, I hope for the best and expect very little. I'd be happy with an injury free season of league average offensive numbers.

Jimmy Rollins said he has been working very hard in the gym.

I hope J-Roll bounces back strong. He'll forever be one of my favorite players. It's hard to overstate how important he was to this golden era of success. We went from perennial losers to one of the league's best after he declared us, "The team to beat."

Rollins, Howard, Utley: All with something to prove. I like it. I like it a lot.

Perhaps Rollins could go to the same leg conditioning guy that Jeter went to a few years back?

Its ridiculous that he can't keep his legs healthy.

Former Rupemaan now representing reigning champs at birth.

Great points on J-Roll JW. He'll have a great year. Yoga suits him well, relaxing and great for flexibility which is exactly what he needs. If he was bulking up it would worry me that he was going to try and jerk all pitches. He needs to just put a good swing on the ball and hit it where pitched and let his legs do the rest for him. I think he is finally ready to be a leadoff hitter. Go Jimmy and Phils

Not sure if marriage or a WFC has changed his mind but Jimmy always talked about finishing his career on the left coast.

BTW...Happy New Year everyone!!!

A-Train: I've said in the past that if he can be moved for something of value, I wouldn't be too disappointed to see Rollins traded to an AL west coast club.

He's a lot like Jeter in that the Phillies need to keep him for his presence and his personality over what he has to offer as a ballplayer. Defensively, I don't think there's a significant enough dropoff from Rollins to Valdez to justify the difference in cost, and offensively, they're both question marks.

Phillies without Rollins would be a tough pill to swallow for me. His ability to come up with clutch hits, even in the middle of a bad season, always amazes me. He's always a fun and exciting player to watch. I would certainly hope he came back strong and signed on for another tour of duty with the Phils. I'm not sure I ever saw any evidence that he didn't enjoy himself except when he was riding the bench with injuries. I definately think he has a 2nd career in television though.

Rollins, Utley and Howard: I'm most concerned about Rollins; least concerned about Howard.

Reasons to be optimistic about JRoll: 1) in 2010, he walked at the highest rate of his career; and 2) in 2010 and for the first time in his career, JRoll walked more than he struck out.

If Rollins can stay healthy in 2011 and hit around .270, he may look like a real lead-off hitter.

I think the Phils will bring him back after 2011. He's still relatively young and should have a few good years left.

In 2015, I hope we're having a discussion of what it will take for JRoll to reach the HOF.

Jimmy Rollins isn't a HOFer. Let's not waste our time, now or in 2015, having that discussion.

They need Rollins pop from the right side. Last year he hit .297 with a .773 OPS against lefties. He will look nice in that No. 5 hole against the lefties. 2011 will be a MVP year for J-Roll again. Then he will move on for a big payday somewhere else. Ruben has said you win with defense and pitching. They can stick Freddy at SS in 2012 to stay under the luxury tax ceiling to keep the Big 4 especially since Galvis had the same .982 fielding percent at AA as J-Roll had in 2010.

dlhunter: I'll bet you a case of beer (your choice) that J-Roll makes the HOF. My guess is he finishes his career with 2,300 hits, 1,400 runs, 200 hrs, 900 rbi's, 460 sbs. Those are easily HOF numbers. take a loo at who's in http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hof/hofstss.shtml and those likely to go in are Larkin, Trammell, and Jeter. Rollins is solidly in their company.

I think Keith Hernandez goes in before Rollins. (Had to make up for my post on the last thread.) Hey, he's already in the Mets Hall of Fame and as we all know, there are stringent requerements to . . . nevermind.

I just checked out the requirements to get into the Mets HOF and rule number 7. stated: Must not be a pedophile. But that was recently amended to: Must not be a TWICE CONVICTED pedophile. So, about 20 percent of former Mets are still eligible under that rule.

JBird: I'll take that bet, but make mine a case of butterscotch krimpets.

Consistency aside, it sure seems like 11 has produced more memorable moments in the last few years than any other Phillie. (J-)roll call: triple number 20 in the last game of the 2007 season, the walk-off homer against the Reds last year, the double play to save Brad Lidge's perfect 2008 season, and of course, the NLCS walk-off double.

Shame his legs aren't what they used to be, it used to be so much fun watching him wreak havoc on the basepaths.

Happy New Year everyone!

I was really surprised to hear a quote from J-Roll earlier this offseason about how he didn't do much stretching in the past and hated doing it. I know athletes who did nothing but stretch and swear by it as the most important thing. Now that Rollins is on this yoga routine I think that'll make a huge difference for him. He seems to be adjusting his workout routine to his age, while in his 20s he probably coasted on pure natural ability. I really think this will lead to a huge year for J-roll. The offense really does go at the same rate as Jimmy.

Personally, I appreciate everytime he and Chase turn a DP. This will go down as one of the greatest DP combos of the modern era. We might not see one with this kind of skill and longevity for a long time.

JBird: You'll find no bigger Rollins fan than I, but saying that he's in the same company as Larkin & Jeter is one of the more ridiculous assertions ever posted on Beerleaguer. Rollins has had exactly 1 season in his entire career in which his OPS was higher than Barry Larkin's CAREER OPS.

Alan Trammel is a much better comp, not only because he had around the same career OPS as Rollins, but also because, aside from 1 or 2 good seasons, Trammel's career took a serious nosedive after he turned 30. That's precisely the same career path that Rollins seems to be on. Unless you're Sandy Koufax, that's not a career path that gets you into the HOF. Trammell will NEVER be in the HOF and Rollins would have to have a good 4 or 5 more seasons like his 2004-2008 seasons to even be in the discussion.

Everybody likes Jimmy. Everybody hates when he pops up on 2 strikes or strike 1 if it looks close enough. I love his fielding but everything else has dropped the wrong way for years now. He cannot lead-off, he doesn't steal with the same proficiency and he is not the best baserunner on the team. If they can coax him down the lineup, if he can learn to love walks and singles and he accepts declining pay-days, then I want him to stay til he can't turn a double play. If not we still need that elusive leadoff bat with speed and clutch singles, doubles and RBI. It may very well be time to move on.

****Jimmy Rollins isn't a HOFer. Let's not waste our time, now or in 2015, having that discussion.****

I love Jimmy as a player but I completely agree. If Trammell never makes it in (and it looks like he won't) than Jimmy doesnt have a prayer.

Also, I would guess that Jimmy is done winning GGs now that Tulo snatched it away from him. Tulo is younger and a better defender so he'll probably roll with that particular award for the forseeable future.

Barring a massive turnaround by Jimmy, I just dont see it.

Man, I hate you people. Damn haters. Isn't it enough I took off from my usual off season plan and I am spending extra time on a ranch in Arkansas working out "Playing SS the Phillies Ways" with Kevin Sefcik and Steve Jeltz. Just watch me when I come back in Spring Train...can you say "off the hizzy fo shizzy"? Yup, yup.

Its hard to believe Jimmy's only 32. The way we all talk, its like he's 35-36. He should have several good productive years left in him...if he can stay healthy.

It's going to be a fun year. Looking forward to the game chats already.

BAP: Don't be a dick. I know some people like to be confrontational just for the sake of being confrontational online, but What I said was Jimmy's numbers put him squarely in the company of the past HOF shortstops. Take a look at the list and tell me Jimmy won't have better numbers than 1/2 those guys (especially counting stats). In 11 seasons, Rollins has way more sb's and nearly as many hr's as Trammell put up in 20 seasons.The voters like that stuff. There aren't a lot of great shortstops in this era who didn't move off the position or get tied up in the steroid thing. I think he'll get in.

I love Jimmy Rollins. He's not a true leadoff hitter, but other than that, he's been exactly what the Phils have needed over the years. He's wife does fitness for a living and I've read Jimmy is partaking in some of her classes this winter in order to better prepare himself for next season. My hopes are that he bounces back, stays healthy, and inks a 3 to 4 year extension worth about $8M annunally.

I predict that Kyle will be joining Jimmy's morning yoga class at Camp Clearwater before he attends Roy's workout session.

Unless a GG calibre SS shows up in the Phils' system who can hit for league average or better, IMHO JRoll will be extended. The only question is at what price.

As for HOF, he's put up some HOF seasons, but his body of work isn't there yet. Can he stay healthy enough to signicantly add to said body?

88 games on the DL doesn't get anyone in the HOF.

BAP: Whether Rollins makes the Hall is likely to depend on his longevity. Your argument that he won't make it because his OPS doesn't come close to Jeter and Larkin (who are HOF slam dunks) is laughable.


Here is the career OPS of some HOF shortstops:
Aparicio .653
Bancroft .714
Maranville; .658
Reese .743
Ripken .788
Rizzuto .706
Ozzie: .666
Tinker .661

J-Roll, who has been one of the top 2 or 3 defensive shotstops in baseball, has a career OPS of .764, which is higher than 7 of the HOF shortstops listed above.

In other words, JBird's assertion that Rollins may be a HOF caliber SS isn't nearly as "ridiculous" as your response.

what's with all the CAPS bap. we get your point

The HOF question is interesting. In past generations, the position emerged from being one requiring purely defensive ability to one in which offense, indeed very good offense was required. Bowa and Harrelson were good offensive shortstops compared to Bobby Wine. (Actually Jim Bunning was good offensively compared to Bobby Wine.)

The point here is that Wine was able to remain at a MLB levle for several years, starting many games. Aparicio, Maranville and Smith became HOFs based on their defensive prowess. I'm not sure that that kind of selection will ever happen again, though. People now expect all position players to have at least some offensive ability.

Since it is an era of offense, Jimmy will need to show more offensive ability than those on clout's list (which he has). The question is whether the extent to which he has exceeded previous generations is enough in the eyes of the voters. He will, however, receive some breaks for not being a juicer and for being popular and energetic (but not being scrappy, I guess). I think he stands a chance, but we won't know until after the next several years.

Also, if he plays for several more years, there is always the possibility that his career OPS will tumble. That .764 is not carved into the walls of any hall yet.

Jbird: I wasn't being confrontational, merely emphatic.

clout: That would be an excellent riposte if only I had actually said that Rollins won't make the HOF because his numbers don't stack up against Jeter & Larkin's. I did say that JBird was being ridiculous to assert that Rollins is "solidly" in the company of Jeter & Larkin. But nowhere did I assert that this was the measure of his HOF-worthiness.

Instead, I compared Rollins's HOF chances to Trammell's because: (a) their career numbers are kind of similar; and (b) Trammell flamed out early, just as Rollins seems to be doing. But, as I said in my post, if he bounces back & has 4 or 5 more solid seasons, he'll belong in the HOF discussion. Of course, given what has happened his last 2 seasons, I find this a funny time for anyone to be making a HOF pitch on his behalf. He could play another 6 or 7 years, but if most or all of those seasons are like the last 2, he won't belong in any HOF discussions.

Oh, one more thing. Rollins's HOF worthiness will, and should, be evaluated in relation to contemporary shorstops -- i.e., Jeter, A-Rod, Larkin, Tejada, Ripken, Reyes, Hanley, Tulo, etc. He is not going to make the HOF because his numbers are better than Tinker, Aparicio, Maranville, and Reese's.

Someone posted last year that Jimmy Rollins' body type was similar to a "small NFL running back" or thereabouts, and that Jimmy -- just as an NFL "small back" -- relies unduly on speed and explosive quickness. In the case of a ML SS, of course the speed and quickness also count for a quick bat. Apologies if I plagiarize that concept.

Anyway, the life of an NFL "small back" is spectacular early and is often quickly eroded by injury; perhaps in 4 - 5 years for many. Is a short, spectacular career the fate of Jimmy? Perhaps his body type and physique dooms him to chronic injury. If his 30+ year old muscles and tendons aren't up to the stressors of hard play (athletic fielding; stolen bases and rocket-like trips from first to third) maybe he is doomed to live in the shadow of the exploits of his former self. Hard to believe he put up .296/.344/.531 with 30 HRs in his MVP year. I sure hope a change in conditioning gets us that player back. However, I’m not betting on it.

Regardless, it’s flat our impossible for me to envision this team without Rollins in a significant leadership role. I’ve never seen so many clutch hits from a player who was either “slumping”; “fading” or coming off injury. The walk off HR last year was Jimmy at his best. Come to think of it, with Werth gone bye-bye, we need another career year from the mighty Mr. Rollins.

To put it plainly, Rollins has arrived at the point in his career where he has to make adjustments at the plate to compensate for the effects of his body, his reactions, slowing with age. We heard many times last season about a 'timing' issue with Jimmy, and I think this is what it means. This is the reason why a lot of players very quickly go downhill after their early 30s, and never get it back. Motivation aside, Rollins has to prove he can make those adjustments in order to retain his effectiveness as an offensive player. He isn't going to be able to get by as a dead pull hitter anymore, for one thing. He will need to continue to hone his craft as a hitter, and it remains to be seen whether Rollins has recognized that he needs to change his approach, and probably his swing, to some degree.

Rollins: he was absolutely ridiculous last year until he hurt his hammy, and wasn't the same after. What's to say that if he can keep those leg's healthy, he won't have a great season?

What i saw last year was a guy who was ready on day 1 to hit and hit well, just got de-railed with an injury.

Happy New Year to all.

I've nothing deep to add to this conversation; merely want to say that I'm happy to see it. I love Jimmy - He's been my favorite Philly for his smile, his defense, his apparent love of the game, and his leadership. And those clutch hits don't hurt, either.

I wish him all the best for Season 2011, not only because what's good for Jimmy as a player is good for the team, but also just because I like him.

Alfredo Simon, the former Phillies' draft pick & Rule 5 selection, is a suspect in a fatal shooting in the Dominican. First Ugueth Urbina, now Alfredo Simon. Are "murderous tendencies" one of the tools that Phillies scouts look for in a reliever?

Well BAP. I guess when a scout notes "This guy murders lefties." They need to add "No like seriously murders."

BAP: OK, I'll let you cherry pick a bunch of guys to make your case against J-Roll. Let's take them one at a time:

Jeter: Again, a no-brainer despite the fact he's never been a great fielder.
A-Rod: Steroids an issue?
Tejeda: Ditto
Larkin: No-brainer. Given the importance of defense (which Jeter lacks), he was the best overall SS of his generation.
Ripken: His consecutive game streak and total numbers made him a Hall of Famer, but he wasn't remotely a contemporary of J-Roll.

Hardball Times did a study a few years ago comparing chances converted to outs by a SS compared to chances/outs by all other SS against those same batters. Rollins ranked near the top as I recall. Jeter near the bottom. I think HOF voters are smart enough to realize how important a great glove is at the most important defensive spot in the field. I suspect that will be a bigger factor than you think.

Ultimately though, J-Roll's longevity and ability to match or surpass his career norms over the next 5 or 6 seasons will determine whether he merits serious HOF consideration. If he takes a serious "nosedive" as you predict, then obviously it won't happen. But it's way too soon to dismiss the notion out of hand, as you did.

Alfredo Simon, Ugueth Urbina, and Cory Lidle. You wonder what Ed Wade was planning circa 2006.

J-Roll is just 32 years old. He's won 1 MVP and was 10th in MVP voting one other time (receiving votes an additional 3 times). He's won 3 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger and made 3 All-Star teams. He's also been on a winning team that has 1 WS and multiple division crowns.

His counting stats are also already pretty good, particularly the 150 HR/300 SB combo.

I don't think Trammell is a good comparison. Trammell played 20 seasons and his counting stats aren't as impressive as Rollins. Rollins has played just 11 and will likely play only 4 or 5 more, I'd guess.

For Rollins to make the Hall of Fame, however, he'll need to have a solid 4 more years. I agree he's not likely to get any more GGs, thanks to Tulo. But he could still find himself on a couple more AS teams with some good 1st halves.

He should also be able to get to 200 HR and 400 SB. He'll easily hit 100 triples as he's already at 98. It'd help him to get to 900 RBI, but 800 is likely.

I know we all talk about OPS and OPS+ and WAR and wOBA, blah, blah, blah... but HOF voters do not. Big counting stats, some awards, team success and being high profile are often what get you into the Hall.

I think a lot of the criticism of JRoll lies at the feet of Uncle Charlie. If Jimmy batted regularly in the 5th or 6th slot, no one would complain. I suggest that Cholly use Jimmy in the no. 5 slot where Werth used to bat. I think that would be beneficial for both Jimmy and Ryan. Let Vic be our full time lead off hitter.

Few things I am curious about JRoll next year:

- Phils will definitely need JRoll to rebound offensively next year with Werth's departure especially vs. RHP. His numbers last year vs. RHP were horrid:

.218/.297/.360 in 239 Abs (.657)

My bet is that he is puts a .720 OPS or so against RHP would which go a long way to helping JRoll having a bounceback year offensively. Ditto for Vic would go a long way to helping this team face RHP next year.

- Normally, I wouldn't question that you would see JRoll in the leadoff spot this spring but with Werth's departure there is a gaping hole in the 5-spot. Can't imagine that Cholly will have Ibanez hit in the 5-hole and that really leaves JRoll as a prime candidate.

- Seems like the book against JRoll the last few years has been to not give him a fastball early in the count especially on the first-pitch. Get him to chase something offspeed & hit a weak pop-up (which he did alot of in '09) or a routine grounder that he pulls (which he did alot of in '10).

JRoll did have better discipline at the plate last year (pitches/AB and %BB were notably up from '09) but just didn't seem to hit anything hard even offspeed pitches that are left in the zone.

Stuff that JRoll killed 2 or 3 years ago he tend to make alot of weak outs on. I am hoping that it was just largely due to his leg injuries that sapped his power. If not, he really is a guy who has fallen off quickly.

My bet is that teams are going to start to realize as they did last year that JRoll really can't handle a decent fastball anymore especially from relievers who have some gas. Savvier teams will challenge him late especially if they have a hard throwing RHP reliever on the mound.

- Hope that JRoll realizes that his day as a ~25 HR guy are well past him unlike in '09 when he chased alot of pitches looking to kill the ball & subsequently hit alot of weak flyballs/pop-ups.

Really content with a JRoll who hits .270 with 15-18 HRs and steals 25-30 bases this year in the 5-hole or out of the leadoff spot.

He is still going to be a hacker at times especially during his 1st AB but that is just part of who he is.

My bet is that he has a 'bounceback' year but it still well below what he was in '06-'07.

Say .260 with 15-17 HRs and 25 SBs if he can play 150 G.

So Howard has been neutralized, but Rollins is sure to bounce back?

Howard 2009: .279/.360/ .571
Howard 2010: .276 /.353/.505

Rollins 2009: .250/ .296/ .423
Rollins 2010: .243 /.320/.374

I don't see it. Howard has been far more productive in the past two years, and that will likely continue in the next several seasons. I hope I'm wrong and Jimmy has some incredible turnaround, but the guy hasn't been very good for two full seasons.

JRoll isn't anywhere near a HOF-consideration yet. He doesn't have the countable stats that would merit consideration or the standout years besides '07.

Agree with others on here that he needs at least 3-4 more years where he puts up ~15 HRs and ~25 SBs to merit more serious consideration.

timr - I forgot to add that I don't think JRoll stays healthy enough to play 150+ G unfortunately although I do want to see how he looks in spring training.

JRoll has generally been a guy who scuffles a bit in the 1st half (especially in May) and then turns it around gradually as the weather warms up. Really been a 2nd half hitter his entire career.

Career numbers (pre/post ASB):

Pre-ASB: .265/.318/.415 (.738 OPS)
Post-ASB: .281/.339/.458 (.797 OPS)

2010 was the first time since '02 that JRoll didn't post notably better stats after the ASB. Hell, some of his pre and post ASBs splits are have been incredibly extreme.

Like Howard, JRoll is a guy who offensively is just a better player in Aug/Sept. If he can get out to a relatively decent start in 1st half while avoiding his usual annual swoon in May he will have a nice bounceback year as long as he doesn't blow out one of his quads/hammies/calfs.

One last point:

It is pretty amazing just how much better JRoll's numbers are at CBP than on the road since it has opened.

.292/.350/.482 with 65 HRs where he hits a HR every 32.2 ABs.

Every other stadium it is just a HR every 47.1 ABs.

Frankly the last 3 years, JRoll has been a below-average offensive SS on the road while an above-average one at CBP:

CBP: .279/.345/.443
Road: .238/.296/.391

Do other GMs with more neutral offensive stadiums want to pay $10M+ for a SS who has put up those kind of numbers on the road the last 3 years?

Clout - One point against JRoll in his HOF consideration is going to be his lack of overall production in the playoffs.

For a guy who is supposed to be clutch, his numbers have been very pedestrian in the postseason:

.226/.296/.339 with just 3 HRs and 15 RBIs in 168 ABs (41 G)

clout: I didn't dismiss anything out of hand. In fact, I said pretty much the same thing as you -- namely, that the next 4 or 5 years will determine whether he's a viable candidate. I do, however, differ with you as to how likely he is to match his career norms over those next 4 or 5 years. Unlike pretty much everyone else on Beerleaguer, I have difficulty convincing myself that 3 straight years of badly diminishing performance, & 2 straight seasons well below career norms, are just a temporary glitch. I'd love to be proven wrong.

Does anyone on here watch the Phils online via MLB.tv? I have an opportunity to sign up for it, since I'm moving to a base in Arizona, and wanted to know about the quality. Is it worth the money?

Ishmael: If you're out of town, it is absolutely worth it. It's pretty much your only option for watching games, and it is generally pretty high quality (though it's 50/50 whether you get the Phils broadcast or the other teams--depending on how you feel about T-Mac, that could be a positive or a negative).

****J-Roll, who has been one of the top 2 or 3 defensive shotstops in baseball, has a career OPS of .764, which is higher than 7 of the HOF shortstops listed above.****

He'll be judged against his peers and HOF SS of the recent era. That is guys like Ripken, Larken, Ozzie, Jeter, etc. He's a good step down from them so he won't make it in. He's gonna be sitting next to Trammell looking in. And Trammell, despite the protests, is an excellent comparison to Jimmy.

****Does anyone on here watch the Phils online via MLB.tv? I have an opportunity to sign up for it, since I'm moving to a base in Arizona, and wanted to know about the quality. Is it worth the money?****

I watch pretty much every game that way. As long as you have a broadband internet connection, its great HD quality and well worth it. Most Saturday day games are blacked out so that's a bit annoying but otherwise, its great. And you can pick the away broadcast if you dont want to listen to T-Mac.

hunter - That's twisted actually. Twisted. Hilarious. But kinda uncouth-like.

Thanks guys, first posting state-side and I don't want to deal with cable if I don't have to, since the Phils is really the only thing I watch TV-wise.

Yo, new thread

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