Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Report: Durbin expected to sign back with Phillies | Main | Brown hyped as top prospect for third-straight year »

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Comments

I like Quentin far more than most, and I think that he has shown that he has the potential to be a very good hitter. Unfortunately, he's struggled with injuries over the past 2 seasons, and that would be by biggest fear in trading for him. I wouldn't be willing to trade a blue-chip prospect for him (probably goes without saying) or Madson (easily the best reliever in our pen) but if they'd be willing to accept some 2nd-tier prospects I'd gladly put him in the outfield rotation.

No way. Don't weaken the bullpen for a modest upgrade over a Francisco/Brown/Gload.

Kenny Williams addressed the rumor, saying that he wasn't shopping Quentin for bullpen help.

His wording makes me believe that he's looking for more than just Madson and/or Bastardo in a trade.

As he is a proven MLB commodity under team control for two seasons, I'd consider moving anyone prospect other than Brown, especially if Rube could work out a contract extension.

Seems like a match? Madson for Quentin? No way that happens.

I wonder...

Brown, Madson, Francisco, Worley for Quentin / Floyd?

I'm sorry if the Phils trade Madson for Quentin I'll flip out big time. A moderate at best upgrade over Francisco/Brown isn't worth throwing a wrench into the bullpen by trading arguably the best arm in it.

Correction: Blanton, not Brown.

Madson's the closer next year. No chance in hell they move him for Carlos Quentin and his never-ending plantar fasciitis.

The Phils had two areas of need this off-season: the bullpen and the OF. It makes no sense to decimate the bullpen to fill the OF need. It also doesn't make much sense to trade Brown for Quentin since we'll have another OF hole to fill when Ibanez' contract expires at the end of 2011. Brown is a very good prospect who should be ready to be a regular OF no later than the start of 2012.

I like Quentin some, but I don't think we match up with the Chisox.

Derek: I meant to say Blanton, not Brown, if Floyd were somehow included. His being under contract through the end of 2012 at a reasonable cost is what I had in mind, and Quentin can shift to take over for Ibanez and start Brown in 2012.

No way you get rid of Madson for Quentin. Absolutely no way. That's lunacy.

In the abstract, everybody acknowledges that this team needs to get younger, but no one wants to deal with the concrete implications of that: Dom Brown needs to play this year, even if it means he struggles. Even if it means they haven't replaced Werth's numbers. Even if it means the lineup is unbalanced.

If Dom ends up struggling for the whole first half of the season, then you make a mid-season trade. But Brown is the future, and the team needs to give him his shot now.

It also makes no sense for a contending team to weaken their Major League roster. Not the biggest Quentin fan in the world, but I'd take him for non-Brown prospects. Not for any competent, young-ish big leaguers like Madson.

Iceman-why? It just shifts the need in RF where there are little good options to set-up/closer, where there are more options. Many of those options would slip into the closer's role much easier than Madson will who has shown many times that he doesn't have the mindset for it.

Schweiz mentioning Floyd above is interesting. The Sox were allegedly shopping him/open to moving him. I don't think I'd do a Madson for Quentin deal, but if it was expanded to include Floyd, i'd consider it (Phils would have to add something else, obviously). Haven't looked at the FA RHP that are available still, but if you're going to move Madson, now's the time to do it, b/c you can sign someone. Probably wishful thinking, though.

IMHO: Madson as Lidge's heir apparent scares me.

Quentin is probably the worst defensive OF in baseball. He's absolutely terrible in the OF. His glove would cost us more runs than his bat produces.

It rarely happens, but Iceman and I agree on something. I don't really get the fascination with a guy who has hit .236 and .243 in his last two seasons. Giving up Madson for him would be insanity.

I also dont agree that Quentin would "hit 35 HRs in CBP". He already plays in a great HR ballpark and barely got that in his career year back in 2008. Odds are he won't stay healthy to hit that many.

One of the most amusing things about Beerleaguer is how posters overrate Phillies and underrate players from any other team.

Typical Beerleaguer post:

"No way do I trade Wilson Valdez for Jonathan Broxton. Broxton was terrible last year and Valdez had a UZR 150 of + 12 at SS. I'm not sure if I'd even do Valdez for Broxton and Ethier."

Clout - your typical beerleaguer post is yet another strawman from your fertile imagination.

Madson is either the best or nearly the best setup guy in baseball. Quentin is a guy who had a career year in 2008, and has proceeded to be pretty average at best offensively, and pretty awful defensively ever since.

Not trading Madson for Quentin is obviously the smart choice. Given a full year in right, even Benny Fran can put up the type of numbers Quentin does, and with a little better defense. So, from whence does that comment of yours come?

The value of Quentin, beyond his ability to hit 35 HRs at CBP, is as successor to Ibanez.

The Beerleaguer community is near unanimous in its belief that Brown is ready to step in and, if not, a platoon of Francisco/Gload will easily generate a line of .275/.350/.485 so the offense won't miss a beat.

On the off-chance that the Beerleaguer community is wrong (never happen, I know, but just for the sake of argument) a guy like Quentin would be nice to have as an insurance policy. Again, he may not be needed this year, but he will surely be needed in 2012 when Ibanez is gone.

There is a risk here and ZT, one of the few I've seen here who actually know something about non-Phillies, nailed it: Quentin's injury track record is not good.


aksmith: Add this to our Gilles bet: Quentin will have a better year than Benny Fran.

Quentin has been hurt the past two years, which is a factor in his numbers. If you believe his numbers of those 2 years are what we'll get in future years, then you have to believe that Jimmy Rollins is now a .243 hitter forever, no?

NEPP: We could have a nice debate about whether CBP is more of a HR park than Chicago, but, more importantly, Quentin hit 36 HRs at age 25.

I never expect intelligent insight from you but to flatly say he can't hit 35 HRs at CBP at age 28 is dumb even for you.

Considering that Rollins hit .250 in 2009, when he WASN'T injured, I'd say there's pretty good reason to believe that he IS a .250-ish hitter forever.

****The value of Quentin, beyond his ability to hit 35 HRs at CBP, is as successor to Ibanez.****

Well yeah, the defensive difference will be negliable.

****NEPP: We could have a nice debate about whether CBP is more of a HR park than Chicago, but, more importantly, Quentin hit 36 HRs at age 25.****

If he stays healthy he could do it...I dont think he'll be healthy enough to do it. Even in 08, he only had 130 starts due to health issues. He's got chronic injury issues. I dont doubt that the ABILITY is there...I just dont see him doing it.

BAP: If so, we should dump him fast, no? His contract expires after this coming season and his range won't get better as he ages so if he's just a .250 hitter with sub-.400 SLG because that's what he did last year, they should dump him for whatever they can get, no?

****NEPP: We could have a nice debate about whether CBP is more of a HR park than Chicago****

Well, we both know that Chicago is the friendlier HR park...but here goes:

2010:
CBP: 1.125 (10th)
Cellular: 1.545 (1st)

2009:
CBP: 1.005 (16th)
Cellular: 1.193 (4th)

2008:
CBP: 1.022 (11th)
Cellular: 1.353 (2nd)

He (and any other WhiteSox) isn't likely to see a bump in his HR numbers moving to CBP.

BTW...who's our setup guy if we dont have Madson?


Wouldn't it make more sense to just give Ordonez a 2 year deal? He's better defensively than Quentin (most are) and he doesn't cost our setup guy AND other pieces.

clout: I based my post on what he did in 2009, when his slugging percentage exceeded .400. But if the Phillies had someone to step in at SS, I would say, yes, they should absolutely trade Rollins. Save for blind faith, I see no compelling reason to believe that a guy who has hit .250-ish over his last 1,022 ABs is going to hit better than that next year.

****Quentin's injury track record is not good.****

The most troubling thing about him is that its the same or similar injuries every year. If it was flukish like Tulowitzki (hit by a pitch, a splintered bat laceration, etc), it'd be one thing. Quentin keeps hurting the same damn thing year after year. 130 is his high-water mark for starts...as a guy in his mid-to-late 20s, that's worrisome.

Boras basically said that 2 years, $20 million will get Magglio...I say go for it.

Phils cant afford to take away from their MLB roster thru a trade.

JW, you have fallen off your rocker. Quentin hit .240/.334/.469 the past two years and is supposedly injury-prone and a crappy fielder (by far the worst among AL RFs).

And give up Mad Dog, and others, for THAT?? Umm, no thank you.

Okay, Clout. I'll take your bet. Whomever the Phillies ply in right field will have a better offensive and defensive year than Quentin. However, you can't fudge the data. Take one year of UZR, even though it's not a good indicator as we know.

I'll bet you a dozen soft pretzels that the season state line for the Phillies' right field position will be better than Quentin. And no, I don't think Francisco and Gload and Brown and whomever will put up a great stat line. I do, however, have confidence that Quentin is a mediocrity who cannot stay healthy.

On sort of the same subject, I do think that Gload could put up a .275ish average against mostly righthanders if he played a full season in right. But we know that will never happen. They guy can hit lefthanders when he gets the chance, and we know he is a line drive machine against righties. And no great range in right, but he seems to catch what he gets to. Don't know that he can hold up health wise any better than Quentin, however. Gload is not a star or even a starter at this point in his career, but he is fundamentally a very sound player.

Last 3 years:

OPS+
Ordonez - 122
Quentin - 123

Simply because of his upside, Quentin is a better option than Francisco or Francisco/Gload. But not at the cost of the only elite reliever in a very average bullpen.

Even though its not the greatest measure of defense, its worth mentioning that Quentin led the majors in Errors last year for RFs with 8 (4 fielding, 4 throwing) and he was 2nd in the majors for all LFs in 2008 with 7 (3 fielding, 4 throwing). Though, he only had 2 in 2009 so there's that. Still, his career fielding percentage is a pretty pathetic .976 in the OF (both RF & LF combined).

Compare that with our 2010 OF:
Vic: .995
Werth: .986
Ibanez: .986
Francisco: .991

He has trouble both fielding the ball cleanly and throwing it as his errors are split basically 50/50 between the two.

NEPP - Agreed. Cellular has the best rep of any stadium in MLB as a HR-park and it has notably helped Quentin since has become a White Sox

Since 2008:

Home: 647 ABs, 52 HRs
Away: 632 ABs, 31 HRs

If Quentin was a free agent or available for peanuts (ie B level/C level prospects), I'd say hell yeah, take a flyer on him like we've done in the past with guys like Werth. But without Madson, our bullpen is pretty questionable. He's the best reliever on the team and one of the best, if not the best, setup men in all of baseball. We should be trying to extend him on a Scott Downs type deal (3y/$15M), not trade him for a stopgap solution in RF...especially when Ordonez is sitting out there available for nothing other than money.

NEPP - I think you just had a break with reality. No way in heck Boras allows Madson to sign a contract like 3 yr/15 million. That's basically the contract he's finishing up now because of incentive clauses. I think you're looking at minimum 8 mil per for four years with bonuses for finishing games. The way teams are insanely throwing around money this offseason, I think even Madson will allow Boras to go all in for him. Too bad, but I think this season is likely his last as a Phillie. The only bright spot will be if Madson actually understands he's a better set up guy than closer, then maybe he'll sign a more reasonable contract with the Phillies.

I'm not sure if the best thing to do to a questionable bullpen is to trade the best guy in it.

BAP - Agreed. Quentin has some nice power numbers but he really has lived off the '08 season. Trading away Madson for him doesn't really do much to help this overall in '11 although it might in '12.

Since then, AL pitchers have learned generally how to handle him generally.

- No fastballs below the belt.
- If you are going to throw a fastball over the belt, it better be at least 91+ MPH because Quentin mashes fastballs he catches up with.
- Slider is a pitch he finds incredibly hard to lay off especially from RHP who put it down and away.
- Also struggles with a pitcher who has a decent changeup generally too.

My bet is that Quentin would put up some nice numbers early here but that his production would diminish in the 2nd half and in 2012 as NL teams learned how to handle him better.

He also is a guy who is a classic LF (strong arm, poor range). Phils just can't really play in LF next year or hide him occasionally at DH.

I was also kind of surprised to see his career numbers vs. LHP generally stink:

.212/.337/.436 with a .773 OPS in 438 ABs with 27 HRs.

He is also a guy who is a really streaker hitter who is generally quite aggressive at the plate (3.62 pitches/AB in his career and well below guys like Howard, Utley, and Ibanez who are at ~4.0 pitches/AB).

He also has the ability to put the ball out to RF he is a dead pull power hitter for the most part so he might be able to take advantage a little bit of the LF in CBP.

Could he hit 30+ HRs in a Phils' uniform next year? Yeah if he stays healthy. 35 is really pushing it though.

If the Phils did trade for him, I would be stunned if they moved Madson. Much more likely is another trade where Amaro dips into the farm system and trades either Brown/Singleton although Brown meets the requirement of the left-handed OF bat who is either a MLB or MLB-ready that Williams is supposedly seeking. Likely wouldn't take much more than that I bet even though the 'asking price is supposedly really high.' Brown and a decent pitching prospect likely would get the deal done for Quentin.

Yeah, sign me up for Ordonez, unless you can get Quentin cheaply.

Mets haven't come up alot this offseason but for the first time in years they have a competent GM in Alderson and FO. Basically kind of reminds me when Gillick took over for the Phils. Basically has some good talent on his team but also locked into some really bad contracts that hamper his ability to deal. All doesn't have a ton of secondary talent.

Instead of trying to overpay like Minaya did nearly every offseason to try to make something happen, Alderson is evaluating what he has and is looking for value to complement a Mets' team that is clearly in rebuilding mold.

aksmith: I agree. Madson's current contract turned out to be one of Amaro's better moves (or was it Gillick?), considering that he was dealing with an agent who almost always tells his clients to choose free agency. But I can't see that happening again. This will be Madson's last big pay-day & he'll want to take full advantage. Boras will no doubt tell him not to sign for anything less than closer's money because, assuming he has another good year, there is surely some team out there that will pay him to be their closer.

Madson went around Boras last time because he wanted to stay in Philly. He might very well do so again.

Here's a question to ponder. The Phillies will likely be without a closer heading into 2012. Would they be better off signing an experienced and sometimes successful closer with a somewhat inconsistent track record, or an experienced setup man with a consistent history of excellence but little experience as closer? The former category refers to about 80% of the closers in baseball and, in all probability, the only such closers who would ever come available to the Phillies. The latter category refers to Ryan Madson.

Utility infielder update:

- Izturis resigned with the O's to a $1.5M with alot of upside potential ($1.7M). O's also added Nick Green on a minor league deal.
- Castro agreed to a minor league deal with the Dodgers worth $500k if he make the Opening Day roster.
- Renteria got a $1M offer from the Giants and is supposedly and supposedly has 2 other offers.
- Padres signed Petit on a minor league deal.
- Counsell is supposedly close to resigning with the Brewers.

Market continues to get thinner and thinner for middle infielders.

Oh and Padilla resigned with the Dodgers for $2M as a swingman. I would much rather have Padilla signed as a reliever to that deal than the one the Phils agreed with Contreras for even though the Phils never would have brought back a guy like Padilla.

DITHL.

I wonder if Madson would take 3 years, $21 milion to be the closer from 2012-2014...

I am just really surprised that none of the Philly beat writers or Amaro have seemingly mentioned the utility infielder spot given how much the injury issues with Polanco/Utley/JRoll last year and the complete lack of any internal help at AA/AAA.

Is Valdez just going to be the automatic answer on a 1-year deal?

Okay, at this point sign me up for Ordonez or trade some unnecessary piece for Willingham or Cameron.

Boras, Boras, and more Boras. Rube has much to gain in keeping he and his clients happy.

MG: You'd rather have Padilla over Big Truck because he's only on a 1 year deal or do you think Padilla is just better?

I think Contreras is a much better relief option, and Padilla's ability to start if needed doesnt really hold much value to me if he was on the Phils.

re: mid inf

Mike Martinez baby!

Padilla over waiting for Urbina.

****Is Valdez just going to be the automatic answer on a 1-year deal?****

Mike Martinez.

I mean, its not like we need a legitimate utility guy.

Mike Cameron would be an okay trade option depending on the price. He could play CF and we move Vic back to RF.

He's solid against LHP and still a decent defender.

I'd be in favor of Cameron, too. While the BoSox have deep pockets, are they under any pressure to move salary now that they've slapped a bank safe to Crawford's back?

clout- I never said Quentin wouldn't be any more productive than Francisco. He almost surely would be if not for what you pointed out- his sketchy injury history. I would take a chance on him, though, if the price was right. But Madson is, in many ways, the linchpin to the Phils' bullpen- you remove him and almost the whole thing falls apart. Especially if Lidge gets shelved or is ineffective again. And this is coming from a guy who has had a hard time rooting for Madson over the years.

You can't say that NO ONE on the 25-man roster is un-tradeable, but Madson was one of the 5 most important Phillies down the stretch last year and will be instrumental to their success again this year. If the trade-off is giving away your most trusted bullpen arm (and possible Lidge successor) for a potential upgrade from one side of a RF platoon and/or 'insurance' for Brown (that's not necessarily guaranteed due to said RF's knack for getting injured), no, I don't think it's even remotely worth it.

NEPP - I think you are right. I could see a trade for Cameron. Would not cost much if we eat most of salary, might cost a prospect/non-prospect type if rd sox eat most of salary. But I could also see a deal for Maggie - my guess is the reason Boras praised the Phils at the winter meetings and how well they are run was because Phillies were involved in talks for Maggie O.

My guess is the Phillies are trying to move Blanton's salary allows them flexibility to sign bullpen, trade for a salary and/or sign a RH hitting outfielder. But it also could be the catering guys trying to figure out how to feed both Reyes's and Fat Joe.

NEPP:

Why on Earth would anyone want to move Victorino from center? I've seen this suggested a few times here and there around here and don't get it at all ...

****Why on Earth would anyone want to move Victorino from center? I've seen this suggested a few times here and there around here and don't get it at all ...****

Because he's just a good a RF (better actually) than he is a CF and Cameron is also a good CF but he hasn't played RF that much in his career (last time was 05 for 500 innings)

OK, but I don't think Cameron is a better center fielder than Victorino is, definitely not at this stage in their careers. Vic's a great center fielder, no reason whatsoever to move him, especially for someone like Cameron.

"Why on Earth would anyone want to move Victorino from center? I've seen this suggested a few times here..."

It's a consistent BL theme that Vic isn't a very good CF, easily replaced by just about any warm body. He wins those gold gloves every year because he's so cute, doncha know.

Putting Cameron in RF is just as easy too.

I, for one, DO think Vic is a pretty good CF. It'd be nice to have another OF who can legitimately cover CF though.

aksmith: Sorry, but you can't lie about what you said and change the terms.

Here's what you wrote: "Given a full year in right, even Benny Fran can put up the type of numbers Quentin does."

Now, do we have a bet or not?

I imagine Rube's trying to figure out what he has to package with Ben Fran to get Quentin in at this very moment.

NEPP: Even you know you can't measure a HR park simply by HRs hit. Especially when comparing the AL to the NL. Not to mention pitching. Where has the Sox pitching been in relation to the rest of the AL? How about the Phillies in the NL?

You're right, Cellular Field is clearly not a top HR park.


Whatever you say man, whatever you say.

NEPP: That's not what I'm saying. Cellular is a HR haven and has been since they moved in the fences. My point is that the gap between Cellurlar and CBP isn't big at all, especially for RH hitters. Look up Bill James park factor splits for HRs. As I recall the diff was something like 122 for Cellular and 117 for CBP.

Fair enough...and like I said, if healthy, Quentin could theoretically hit 35 HRs. I just dont see him staying healthy for a full season. He's never been able to do it. 08 (his career year) was the closest with 130 starts.

The last 2 years, he's either been hurt on the DL or playing hurt due to his chronic injury issues. Add in the astronomical price that Kenny Williams is asking and I'd rather see them look at other options.

UmpBump takes a look at Ryan Howard's contract and how freaking ridiculous it is. Of course, I've been saying this since the beginning, but nobody wants to listen to little old me. Fact- Howard is getting paid like he's the 2nd best player in the game when he barely cracks the Top 50 (and some would argue he doesn't). The man is a slugging 1st baseman, they're a dime a dozen.

NEPP: That's a perfectly reasonable point of view. But I think the other side can make a legitimate case as well. I have no idea what Williams is asking other than bullpen help.

Madson should be untouchable in any trade.

Gee, Clout. I'm pushing for the totality of a baseball player and you want to limit it to only offense?

Frankly, we're not likely to get to see Benny Fran for a full season. Charlie doesn't like him and won't start him regularly. I don't see how we're really going to be able to compare them. Any ideas?

aksmith: I was simply responding to what you said: "Given a full year in right, even Benny Fran can put up the type of numbers Quentin does."

It's a very silly statement and I can see why you want to weasel out of it.

Wow,now Howard's contract. What a weekend free-for-all. Who's contract is up this weekend?

If given the chance to play every day in Philly batting 6th or 7th, I could see Francisco batting .265/.775, 75 R, 30 2B, 20 HR, 75 HR, 15 SB. Hell look at the money Ibanez is making for doing less.

That should be 75 RBI rather than 75 HR, he's not going Barroid on us.

And Carson shows up to complain about Howard. I guess he needed to draw some traffic to his site.

We'll rue the day we didn't sign
Francouer on the cheap.

More dumb $hit about Ryno and his contract. I woke up from a nap for that?

@clout: Here's what he's looking for for Quentin per MLBTradeRumors...


"SATURDAY,1:40pm: White Sox GM Kenny Williams is hoping for a "Carlos Lee-type return" in a deal for Quentin, a scout confirmed to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The White Sox sent Lee to Milwaukee following the 2004 season for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino, and a player to be named later (Travis Hinton)."

Its a bit pricey considering that Podsednik was a fairly good starting OF for them for several years after the trade and Viscaino was a solid bullpen piece. So basically, he's looking for 2 MLBers in return. Would something like Francisco and Madson get it done? Sounds like it would or at least come close. That's pretty pricey when Ordonez is still available.

I can't even express how dumb it would be to trade Madson. No way the Phils will do it either, so I guess I don't have to worry, but its still surprising to see that some BLers actually support such a move.

I put the idea of Francisco as an everyday player up there with the people that were pushing for giving Jason Michaels a chance as an everyday guy or Ricky Ledee.

If we pay Boras up front for his client Ordonez maybe we'll get a break in an extension for Madson.

or Coste at catcher or Dobbs at third

****If we pay Boras up front for his client Ordonez maybe we'll get a break in an extension for Madson. ****

LOL...good one.

If Williams' asking price is anymore than Madson I'm also out on Quentin. However I don't feel as strongly about Madson when he is sure to leave next year for a closing job or sign an expensive extension to fail as our closer. I like the idea of having a youngish player with plenty of upside who has shown he can be an impact player than Mags who'll cost 10 mil at 38. We already have that right now, it sucks.

Just what every thread needs- some Howard bashing and complaints about his contract.

We have no replacement for Madson and our bullpen is pretty mediocre without him.

Though I suppose the David Herndon/Scott Mathieson fans would be "happy" as one or both of them would be guaranteed a spot in the bullpen.

There are plenty of good set-up/closing options in FA, unlike RH RF.

****There are plenty of good set-up/closing options in FA, unlike RH RF****

As good as Madson? And at his price of $4 million?

Quentin seems like the kind of player Phillies fans would come to hate. Low BA, poor defensive skills and injury prone.

And if we gave up Madson to get him, every post on BL would go something like this:

We gave up Madson for this guy?

Well, it's one thing to type a statement. Another to make a bet on it. And for pretzels no less.

Tell me exactly what criteria you want to use and we can bet. However, I truly don't see Charlie using Ben as a starter or even a significant player. It's clear he doesn't think much of him.

And I really don't see Carlos Quentin and Ben Francisco as such disparate baseball talents. But Quentin may be a ton worse defensively, which is not something you can say about a lot of outfielders.

No probably not at 4 million.But after this year Madson is going to be asking a lot more than 4 million. If we can get can something for him now when he's at peak value, we should do it. Especially when we can replace him with a reliever that CAN take over Lidge as closer after next year.

Who is available on the FA reliever market right now that is better than Madson?

Rafael Soriano is probably the only guy I can see that is his equal or better.


And he's a Type A so we forfeit our 1st round pick.

What about picking up a leadoff hitting centerfielding type player and moving Vic to right. Sorta what NEPP said.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG