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Wednesday, December 08, 2010

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Does Reyes have a neck?

Trivia: Who was the last Mexican player to play for the Phillies?

Jose Mesa?

What? Come on.

Honestly have no idea...never even think about such things.

wow - he looks like a heck of an athlete.

The current asking price for free agent outfielder Magglio Ordonez is at least two years at $10 million or more per season, a major-league source told FOXSports.com. Maybe we can shake a right-handed bat from whoever signs him.

If they awarded playoff births by holding a competitive eating contest, Dennys Reyes would command a lot more than a one-year contract.

2 years, $20 million for Ordonez? That's not really ridiculous to be honest. I'd be okay with that.

of course - it is the braves going after sherrill

The last Mexican-born Phillie who springs immediately to mind is Fernando Valenzuela, but that can't possibly be right.

Rodrigo Lopez was Mexican.

So was Juan Castro

Guess-Fernando Valenzuela

Is Reyes really that much better than Romero? I hope they still plan to go after a lefty in the bullpen.

Braves closing in on George Sherril. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Braves are smelling blood. Phils don't have Werth and now the Braves will have 3 lefties to neutralize the Phils lineup with Venters, O'Flatery, and Sherril. They also have Uggla.

boy, Dennys he reminds me of: Antonio Alfonseca

After Dannys Baez, I'm leery of any Hispanic reliever with a plural 1st name.

Only thing that worries me about Reyes is the Cards essentially just gave up on him and expressed 0% interest in bringing him back despite not having the greatest lefty options out of the pen themselves (picked up Trevor Miller's $2M option instead) and his inability to throw his slider for a strike last year with any kind of regularity.

Here's keeping your fingers crossed that Bastardo can actually stay healthy for an entire year.

Len39 - Me too even if only a guy they bring in on a minor league deal but this is likely it.

MyName: "After Dannys Baez, I'm leery of any Hispanic reliever with a plural 1st name."

This thread is already asking for a Will S talking-to about country of origin and you had to throw that in there? God forbid any of these guesses aren't Mexican, the poster will be accused of thinking that all latin born players must be Mexican.

Ugh.

TK: "Check out the #1 most similar pitcher..."

I was half expecting to see Prince Fielder before I clicked.

When the Cards give up on a pitcher...its time to move on.

Good thing that Zolecki says that the proposed Reyes contract includes an option for '12. That will be at least $250k completely wasted dollars to buy it out.

Willard Preacher- Just wait until the Persons of Distinctive Diameter Anti-Defamation Association chimes in.

So a lefty with declining K rates, a high walk rate, but generally a guy lefties can't hit well?

Sounds like J.C. Romero to me. As Clout keeps saying, these guys are virtually all the same. Personally, I would've liked someone who gets more strikeouts, but whatever.

NEPP: $5? really? I usually just go with a couple of bucks. . . but I drive a lowly Carolla with dents, so I guess I don't really care where what they do with it.

Lighten up, Willard

****NEPP: $5? really? I usually just go with a couple of bucks. . . but I drive a lowly Carolla with dents, so I guess I don't really care where what they do with it.****

I dont valet park all that often. When I do, its usually a pretty nice place and a place I go to regularly. Now, I came to Philly on business and stayed at the Marriott in CC...I sure as hell didnt tip that way every time they brought my car around for the 2 weeks I was there. For one, I had no choice as they didnt have any other type of parking and that'd be a TON of money.

****Good thing that Zolecki says that the proposed Reyes contract includes an option for '12. That will be at least $250k completely wasted dollars to buy it out. ****

Super.

@Clout over Cliff Lee:

1) Remember the particulars of the Halladay trade involved the Blue Jays paying 6 million of his 15 million salary. Lee's Salary? 9 million. Put 2 and 2 together: the Jays' salary pickup exactly offsets the increase of replacing Lee with Halladay. Now why do this if it's either Lee or Halladay on the team, not both ? Also, Halladay agreed to a fixed salary at 20 million for 2011, 2012, and 2013. Lee wouldn't do that, and Lee is exactly the kind of pitcher who typically fades after 33/34.

2) Even assuming they could have kept Lee, why would you make a move for Oswalt with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels in your rotation? Answer: you don't. If Lee was on the team we'd never have gotten Oswalt for 2010, 2011, and a good chance for 2012. So the Phillies would be losing Lee in these sweepstakes and may need another pitcher for the rotation in this case (although Happ would still be on the team).

In either case, the Phillies are better set because they got rid of Lee than if they kept him.

NEPP: I mean if your rolling in a Bently, you probably should be tipping with c-notes. . . I see a lot of people not tip at all.

Typical NEPP tips:

Bellhop: $5 to bring bags up to room.
Valet: $2-5 depending on service
Lunch/Dinner: Starts at 15% and goes up or down depending on service. If we eat at a small diner, the type will likely be in the 33% range as I tend to like round numbers ($23 meal turns into $30 bill) etc etc.
Haircut: Typically around $5.


I tipped the kid that shook and bagged my Christmas tree $2 for carrying it for me. I also give my mailman a $10 dunkin donuts card every year as a "tip" (they cant accept gifts larger than that due to gov't ethics laws)

I guess I'm a bit high on valets...never really thought about it before.

I "roll" in either a Mini Cooper S or a Subaru Outback...nothing really fancy.

Godfather: I guess I'm just dumb. But if you keep Lee that's $9M. If you deal for Halladay that's $9M more. Then you don't need Oswalt, who's being paid $47M 2010-12. You put that money toward signing Lee.

Halladay-Lee better or worse than Halladay-Oswalt?

NEPP - daily tip for housekeeping when staying at a hotel (say, the Marriott CC, for instance)?

I usually leave ~$2 on the pillow.

Yeah but we'd have to try and resign Lee at that point and that was never gonna happen. There's no way we'd match the offers he's getting right now.

I think everyone agrees that Halladay/Lee is better than Halladay/Oswalt. But Lee's gone in 2011 regardless.

I leave a dollar a day for housekeeping. Thus, if I'm there a week, I'll probably leave $7-10 depending on if I have change or not. Unless I'm really really messy...then I might tip a little (but not much) more.

I have been speaking in support of going into the season with Ben, Raul, Vic, Brown and Gload and see how things look after a couple months. HOWEVER, if Mags will come here for 2 years 10 mil per year, we should do it. We have the money. Even if Brown looks awesome, you can sit Raul and play Brown and Mags. Next year Raul is gone and you can start Mags and Brown. And if Brown does need another year in AAA, you have Ben to platoon with Raul. Make the deal!

Reyes is basically 1 of many fungible journeyman relievers on the FA market. Sometimes these signings turn out pretty well, as with Scott Eyre, Chad Durbin, or JC Romero (before we extended him). Sometimes they turn out like Danys Baez, Rudy Seanez, or Antonio Alfonseca.

Given Reyes' diminishing strikeout totals, & rising walk totals, I can't say I'm a fan of this signing. But at least we're only giving him a one-year deal. If he stinks it up, I hope Amaro has the good sense to cut bait early & go in search of a backup plan.

It may be fattism ...but Dennys reminds me of a weeble.

http://i56.tinypic.com/24oaj46.jpg

I'd offer 2 years, $20 million with a club option for 2013. See if it gets it done. Maybe even go as high as 2 years, $24 million.

Hopefully Bastardo steps up and realizes his potential making Reyes as just the 2nd LOOGY in the BP. That'd be nice.

I kind of like the idea of throwing out contracts to 2 somewhat interchangable relievers at the same time. Here you go fellas, first one to sign is a Phillie.

FWIW (and probably nothing) Boras said that the Phils' interest in Werth was not "token interest."

That said, they should have a few bucks left in their pocket then, right?

Considering the NL East keeps getting better, we might really NEED to sign a guy like Magglio to keep our place on top. The offense will be average next year with corner OFs like Ibanez and Brown/Francisco.

NEPP: What kind of tip do you leave the hooker?

clout, you dont tip hookers, you knock them unconscious and dump them in the Schuylkill River.

Placido's title of "largest human head on team" is about to be handily toppled...If Reyes gets a bobblehead they had better use a boxspring.

Wasn't Joe Roa 1/2 Mexican?

That's the biggest hat the Cardinals could find and they have some big heads in St. Louis.

clout is right that we could have traded for Halladay and kept Lee this year. But he's 100% wrong that the Phils could have "put that (Oswalt) money toward signing Lee." There's no chance at all the Phils would go 6 or 7 years on Lee. None.

Tried to get this in last thread... but has anyone posted the particulars of the Phils offer to Werth?

3-years, $16M per
4th year vesting option at $12M

This comes from Boras who says the Phils were serious in pursuing Werth, but were not contenders when it became clear that a much longer contract could be had.

No truth to the rumor that Reyes' hat was actually an old roof to a 1970s bullpen cart...

Indeed, compared to position players, relievers are generally quite fungible -- but man, I had no idea Reyes had been on so many teams. Dodgers, Reds, Rangers, Rockies, Pirates, D'Backs, Royals, Padres, Twins, Cards, and he's only 33!


I do love making fun of fat people, and for this reason I hope he signs with the Phils. It's a shame Zagurski couldn't stay on the roster for a very long time, Lunchpail made a great target.

My screen...is full of Dennys Reyes.

Braves signed Sherrill to a one-year, $1.2 million contract, with $200,000 in performance incentives looks like. I don't care what they got Reyes for, there would have been much more upside with Sherrill.

While they're pretty similar, if the Braves sign Sherrill for less than we signed Reyes for, it will appear that they won this little battle of the LOOGYs.

TTI~ No I'm not very patient.

If the Braves sign Sherrill to a lower contract than Rube gets Reyes for, I'm gonna become a, I don't know, hockey fan or something.

Really stupid to begin with the list of mediocre LOOGYs and then thin it out by choosing the worse of several evils.

NEPP - The hooker comment is kinda misogynist. You're lucky I'm not Schweizer or I'd go on for about four threads over it.

I bet the Braves LOOGY has a better year than ours.

If Reyes cost more than Sherill I'm going to light myself on fire!!!!!! This is the worst disgrace in the history of sports!!!!!!!!!!

The era is over. We're losers. I hate everything!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I dare anyone to top that.)

Mags @ 2 for $20 is pretty good considering what Werth signed for. If that's what he wants, I'd do it quick.

If Reyes costs more than Sherrill, I'll drink "water" straight from the Schuykill.

It looks like the Sherrill deal is done in Atlanta's favor pending the usual doctor's visit stuff.

Overreaction rules on Beerleaguer. Who cares if Reyes costs more than Sherill. Hell... the Phils haven't even signed him. And even if he does, that tells us very little. No one knows the dynamics involved. Maybe Sherill really wanted to pitch in Atlanta... maybe Sherill has bigger injury question marks.

But, of course, none of that will stop the mindless overreactions. That's Beerleaguer. And that's why I barely stop by in the offseason.

Bartolo Colon, pitching in the Dominican, is reportedly in the best shape of his life.

Clout - Is that a joke about Colon?

Everyone else - I think everyone here would rather have Sherrill than Senior Sweat. But this kind of junk happens every offseason and it's just time to learn to live with our disappointments. Last year it was Juan Castro. Everyone on this board knew he was going to stink. That's clearly one where Rube should have used his audience shout out. But as long as the team is making the playoffs, I don't think we have a whole lot to complain about.

Clout,
That sh-t is just funny. That being the case, Bartolo is probably 6 ft. 315lbs now.
As for Sherill's "performance bonus", the agent must have been like "We want 50000 in performance bonus possibilies" and the GM was like "Hell, the way he pitched last year how 'bout 200000 while were at it?"

Congrats BEERLEAGUER! Today's thread about GEORGE SHERILL and DPATRONE was voted best of the internet 2010! Your prize is on the way.

@ Clout

Halladay - Lee much, much worse than Halladay Oswalt. Similar production for the next 2 years, but with Oswalt you're not on the hook for an additional 4-5 years and $100 million for a pitcher who's skills are going to decline after 2012. Oswalt it's 47 million and then you can resign him for less time and money.

Yeah, how much you're paying for a guy's production matters. 'Nuff said. I could see paying Roy Halladay the kind of contract Cliff Lee is going to get when Halladay was 27/28. Not when he's 32. I don't care if the pitcher is Bob Gibson, Steve Carlton, Whitey Ford, or Cy Young, there hasn't been a pitcher in baseball who's worth 6/7 years at 22-25 million a year when they hit 32.

More good news(via twitter):

Brian Sabean: "There is nothing going on between the Phillies and the Giants on Aaron Rowand"

-------------
Often times, the best moves are the ones we don't make, i.e. Frenchy and Rowand.

Uh, about Comcast investing in this website, uh, I think we made a mistake. Who is this Patrone woman?

Jim Salsbury, was just on Comcast...Said Phillies have talked to the Royals about Zach Greinke...

CJ - "And even if he does, that tells us very little. No one knows the dynamics involved."

Que? You have publicly available data on contracts for free agent relievers are left-handed and can easy benchmark Sherill's deal vs. deal for relievers the last 3 or 5 years.

Sherrill's deal is actually a little more than I thought the second-tier relievers would get. I thought it would start at $1M or less with some guys lingering until Jan & taking minor league deals.

More apparent that baseball teams feel they will have more cash to spend next season. Why this is so I really don't know due to the overall economic conditions but I dont't know about the various other revenue streams you would have to look at.

MG: My point is that you can't simply compare deals dollars to dollars. There's lots of other factors involved.

I'm not commenting on whether any of these deals are good or bad.

MG: Sherrill's deal is right in line with what the Mets paid Carrasco. It looks like the going rate for mediocre middle relievers and LOOGYs is $1M-$1.25M per year.

If Lee gets a 7-year deal at crazy dollars, the best comparable deal I could think off the top of my head was the crazy deal that Kevin Brown got in '98 (7 yrs, $105M) from the Dodgers.

Now granted Brown was 2 years older at the time and had 2 very strong years at 34-35 with the Dodgers. He started to breakdown though physically after that. The only reason he 'rebounded' in '03 with such strong numbers is because he was doping as confirmed in the Mitchell Report.

Any team that signs Lee likely gets 3 maybe 4 very good/good years out of him but a team better be prepared to eat $60M+ of mediocrity or worse on that back end of the deal.

CJ - Why if you are using players at similiar positions with relatively comparable stats? Dollar-to-dollar is more than sufficient. I do M&A financial benchmarking with weaker criteria than that.

clout - Yeah. Carrasco and Sherrill are good proxies that even the market on mediocre veteran relievers has notably risen this offseason from last year.

MG exactly. That's precisely the reason why having Halladay/Oswalt is so very much better than Halladay/Lee.

Remember, the Phillies touched base with extension talks and were told by Lee and his agent that he wanted to test the free agent waters.

In other words, but them through the circus surrounding the winter meetings. No thanks! He's not a Hall Of Fame pitcher. That contract should only be given to a pitcher entering his prime who will be in the HOF if he continues producing his current numbers.

Not for anything less.

Bartolo Colon is a loser. Always has been, always will be. He flat out quit on the Red Sox and White Sox the past 2 years and has had issues with every major league team he has been with.

MG: Because you don't know all the factors. Why did Matt Diaz take less dollars from the Dodgers than he got from the Pirates? Do you know? Does that mean the value for RH platoon OFers is what Matt Diaz is getting paid or what the Dodgers were willing to pay him?

But keep on believing the only factor that matters is money. It makes it easier to bitch and moan that way.

(The answer, by the way, is that Matt preferred to stay on the East Coast and to train in Florida.)

CJ - You are missing the point. It is more than fair to benchmark & compared similiar players on the contract they actually take. There are always extraneous factors but $ is a great way to benchmark.

CJ, in general, Money is the most important factor for a player in free agency.

Yes, there are other factors which enter into. Is the team a contender? What perks are there? Will I get along with the staff? And others.

And these do tip things one way or the other. But money always, always takes a primary role. It's really when the money between 2 offers is equal that the other factors usually come in to play.

MG: It may be a great way to benchmark... but a stupid way to settle on absolutes like, "There's no way Reyes should make more from the Phillies than Sherill made from the Braves." But that won't stop folks on Beerleaguer from doing just that. Stupidity and hyperbole generally reign supreme.

The_GodfatherSJP: "But money always, always takes a primary role."

And by always you mean except when a player is more interested in being on the east coast and training in Florida.

Like I said... absolutes and hyperbole reign supreme.

Godfather: Your contention that Halladay/Oswalt is the best of all possible worlds is flawed because you assume the only alternative was to sign Lee to an unconscionable contract in this off-season.

Putting aside the contract, since we don't know what it will be, and the fact we don't know how Lee will pitch over the next 6 years, tell me why the following scenarios would not have been possible:

1. Because they kept Lee, the Phils win the 2010 World Series.

2. Because they didn't need Oswalt, they waited until the current off-season to acquire him when it became apparent they couldn't sign Lee.

3. After winning the World Series with Lee, the Phils use the extra revenue and the 2 1st rounders they get to draft and sign a bumper crop of prospects in what looks to be a good draft.

CJ, you're talking about a minor player, and if the contract was league minimum, Diaz certainly wouldn't have taken it. It's because the numbers weren't all that different that the other factors came into play.

If the Pirates really lowballed Diaz, he would have walked.

And Diaz is actually a case of the exception proving the rule.

MG: Colon may be a "loser," but he's a loser with a 153-103 record, two 20-win seasons, a Cy Young award and a career ERA+ of 112.

The Phillies need some losers like that.

This is no endorsement of signing him now, but loser isn't the first word that comes to mind on a pitcher with that kind of record.

The_GodfatherSJP: I don't care what the "rule" is. And are you honestly suggesting that only "minor" players have ever turned down more money because of a different factor?

My point is that simply doing a dollar to dollar comparison and making definitive statements based on that is stupid. But that won't stop people from doing just that as soon as Reyes signs.

Clout:

1) As clear from the NLCS, the problem with the Phillies was their offense failing to produce against the Giants. Which is understandable, given how hot SF's pitching was. Since Lee and Oswalt were nearly identical statisically in 2010 (despite Oswalt pitching in 2 hitters parks and Lee spending half the year in a pitchers park, Seattle), it's safe to say having one or the other makes no difference for the Phillies in the playoffs at all. Having Lee would have produced the same 2010 results. Period.

Just for fun, I hereby declare you automatically lose any argument for the next 7 days if you seriously claim having Cliff Lee could have made the difference for the Phillies in 2010, including this argument. :)

2) Assuming the Phillies still have/had the prospects to get Oswalt and a similar deal could have been worked, the Phillies would be in severe competition with anyone who loses on the Cliff Lee deal, such as the Angels and Rangers, both of whom have plenty of prospects to entice a would be trader. Whereas in July 2010, the Phillies were the front runners with no one really close. This means much worse odds of getting Oswalt in your scenario. Again, things worked out much better for the team by getting rid of Lee.

3) Assuming Lee signs with a top team, which is part of the rules. The Phillies aren't getting 2 top picks for Werth now, are they? And this was after everyone was forecasting Werth going to the loser of the Carl Crawford sweepstakes. You're also implicitly arguing that having several prospects is better than having a bona fide ace pitcher for 2011 and 2012 in Roy Oswalt, which is obviously not the case as a reliable, durable ace pitcher is the most valuable commodity in baseball. Again, another scenario where things work out better long term for the Phillies.

Yeah, totally ignoring the World Series bit. Why? Because 2010 is over. It's in the past. The Future is what matters.

****Bartolo Colon, pitching in the Dominican, is reportedly in the best shape of his life.***

Yeah, I bet he is.


Colon didnt quit on the BoSox...he reinjured his shoulder/elbow. He looked pretty good up till then back in 09. I remember there being a huge debate back then on us signing Benson over Colon as our "shot in the dark" rehab project pitcher. I'd roll the dice on another minor league invite/opt out by Jun 1st clause deals for
him if he's interested.

I assume our deal with Reyes is something like 1 year, $1.00-1.25 million base.

****NEPP - The hooker comment is kinda misogynist. ****

It was meant to be...considering it was a off-colour joke.

Sherril Must have not wanted to come to Philly after only getting 1.2 mil. Could be he didn't want to pitch at CBP. I would assume the offer to Reyes will be more than that.

Roberts: I am not a woman mind you.

What Clout said.

****The Phillies need some losers like that.****

He also hasnt been healthy/productive since 2005. And he's in his late 30s now.

A minor league flyer is fine...but dont expect anything out of it.

Didn't SF beat C. Lee twice in the WS?

Yes, yes they did.

Lee was 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in the WS this year.

Godfather: I'm with you. I don't understand the argument that the difference between winning and losing the NLCS was Oswalt instead of Lee.

Sure, I wish we had been able to sign both Lee and Halladay to long-term deals, and when we did trade Lee I wish we had gotten more for him. But I sure am happy we have Oswalt for another two years instead of 2 more sandwich picks.

This horse isn't just dead, it's a barrel of rubber at this point.

NEPP: Did you just use the UK/Canadian spelling for "color"?

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