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Sunday, December 05, 2010

Comments

Rest up big fella, the Phils are gonna need you next season.

Good call on that one Weitzel. I'm curious whether Oberkfell had or was ready to sit Brown at the time he was summoned home.

I still say that a full season in AAA is a good idea. A half season of productivity in AA and AAA does not = ready.

Brown certainly had a busy year. A couple of months to digest his experience and some home cooking can only rejuvenate him. Stay safe and learn to pull the ball.

I credit jimmy rollins more than any other player in the paat decade for the franchises success recently. As excited as I am for doms rookie season, I am way more excited about jroll having an awesome comeback year.

Are you sure they want to rest him? Hmmm. I thought maybe they were gonna teach him to hit righty...

Berkman to the Cards...are jogeb

Berkman to the Cards...are jogeb

The Cardinals sign Lance Berkman and yet Rube still refrains from signing one of about a half-dozen indistinguishable LOOGYs! I'm verklempt (shoots colt revolvers in the air, Yosemite Sam style)!

Also, I think the change of scenery argument for Jeff "3 teams in three years" Francouer has holes, to say the least.

Sorry about that last post..:the 3 year old stole the phone and ran off with it. As for the Cards, I will be plenty amused by an OF with Berkman in it full-time. He could barely move at 1b last season.

Maybe Berkman will play 1st for the Cards. That other guy they have had a good year but I don't think he can do it again.

Look, even Chris' kid is PO'd about this Berkman thing.
My son wants RAJ to sign Diaz already and work on an inexpensive piece for the bullpen and he is sick of the insistence that he try the potty.

D Patrone:A lot of places are serving brewed decaf these days. Man, I thought I was impatient. Rube just can't win. He signs somebody the first day or two of FA and he's impetuous, wait a bit and he's a snail. I'm more pissed about not throwing a few extra bucks at Davey Lopes than anything else. Dom you need a ritalin smoothie or something.

You had to bring up spring training, didn't you?

Now I'm starting to get excited about next season for the first time.

Good post, Jason.

Donc~ I can assume your referring to my comments from the last thread. You're right, I do need something. But I can tell you this - He's only gonna sign players that will play for what they want to pay. He's not gonna make a big splash at the meetings (he doesn't even think resigning Werth is that important, if you read his comments).

So may take is why even go if you're not gonna do anything? Other teams are filling their needs slowly. He's not filling his at all. I'm glad I'm not his wife. Getting him to move on anything must be like trying to find a parking spot in South Philly on Sundays before an Eagles game.

This lineup will not nearly be as good with a big RH bat in it. If that's not important to him he should not be the GM.

As far as Brown leaving winter ball, don't read anuthing more into that than what it is.

The Brown move is also partly face saving. DWL teams play to win and aren't about development. Brown was undoubtedly close to getting benched.

The Berkman move is a puzzler, especially at $8M. He's absolutely brutal in the OF plus they'll have to move Holliday to RF, where's he's never played. Jay & Craig are both mediocre prospects, so I understand not trusting them, but you'd think the Cards could've come up with something better than Berkman.

I'm looking for RAJ to come home from the winter meetings with Rhodes, Diaz and a RH reliever in his shopping bag.

DPatrone: So you're criticizing Amaro because he only wants to sign players for what the team is willing to pay?

That's called being fiscally responsible.

You're turning into a parody of yourself with this complaining.

Anyone with insight on whether the Red Sox's trade for Gonzalez makes a second deal for Werth that much less likely?

Clout: You think they'll sign those guys this early? I'd prob wait a little longer to see what shakes out. Seems like there's more money being tossed around this winter, but I think you can end up with a guy like Diaz a little later on for a pretty cheap deal.

Of course, if you can get him on your terms now, go for it. I'm thinking a 1 year, $2.5M deal. I wouldn't give him any more than that--the Braves, who desperately need OFs and are your biggest threat, just let him go instead of paying him more than that.

DPatrone: Yes I was commenting on your posts of the previous thread. I'm a bit behind. But I can't believe you are characterizing Rube as slow moving. He's being deliberate this year but he's been super aggressive the last 2 years. This is a much more fluid situation this year. The Werth situation complicates matters. It would seem to me that the fact that he hasn't made a right field move indicates that he hasn't completely closed the door to a Werth return. Personally, I think that chance is extremely remote, but my guess is that he doesn't want to make a move there until that ship has completely sailed. As for the bullpen, there are a lot of options out there and relievers are notoriously a crap shoot. The longer he waits the lower the price is likely to be I suppose. That makes sense unless there is somebody out there you are completely in love with. With salary constraints seemingly a concern the pen and bench are where money is most likely going to be conserved.

TTI~ I agree that he trying to be financially responsible. You have to be. But here's where I have a problem: He re-signs Contreras for 2 years, 5.5 mil. (39 years old). But he wouldn't sign Takahashi for the same money, which is what he got for the same 2 years. Takahashi is younger (35) and can start or relieve. He won't get Downs because of the draft pick. Instead he'll sign some stiff on the cheap.

Donc~ You're right on RF. He won't bring in a bat until Werth officially signs elsewhere. See my comments above about the LH reliever.

Now he could be working on something else completely off the wall. He's been known to do that. But again, if he thinks Brown/Ben Fran is the answer in RF, he's mistaken.

Dpatrone: Are you saying the Phillies should just dump a pick to sign Downs?

Something you said in the last thread bothers me if that's your attitude. The Phillies need to be concerned with the window of opportunity. I know we want the window to remain open as it is right now but I don't want us to focus on the next 2 years at the cost of the 5 after that. Be a team like the Twins, or Red Sox, or Braves- that do smart things either through money, or picks and try to always be in the hunt.

The Phillies have a good shot at having two first round picks this year with an additional conditional pick. I know we can joke about the Phillies scouting but it'd be hard to screw up all three of those picks in the same year.

Takahashi would've been nice because he is left-handed but Contreras is a known commodity of sorts. Also, there are some quality left-handers still out there that you could sign. And really some are better options.

Honestly, I never understood the point of sending key prospects to play in Fall/Winter League given how much they already play and the chance that they might get injured/or pick up some bad habits that the organization doesn't want.

I can only see it for guys who spent most of the previous season injured & could use a little more PT.

Phils should NOT dump a pick for Downs. Too many people are saying that this will be a good draft year. Giving one up is foolish (even if you get two for losing Werth).

If you want to spend on a LH RP, since Takahashi's gone, spend it on Fuentes. Otherwise sign Rhodes AND Reyes and see which sticks to the wall like over-cooked spaghetti.

Andy - They aren't going to sign two veteran LOOGYs.

The Cards 1 yr/$8M deal for 'Fat Elvis' has my vote for worst deal this offseason so far. I know the market for corner OF is limited but this is a guy who has struggled with injuries including problems with his right knee, hasn't been a regular OF since '04, and isn't exactly know for his offseason work out ethic/regimen hence his moniker.

Is he a guy who comes into camp into shape and loses the likely 15-20 pounds (he was really fat last year on the Yanks and was probably closer to 240 than his listed 220) he needs to hold up over the course of the season on his knees and play LF?

Rasmus better be prepared to run alot during games because an OF of Berkman in LF and Halladay in RF will be brutal defensively. Even worse than a Phils OF with Ibanez in LF and Francisco in RF.

Personally, I have always been kind of annoyed by Berkman because he is one of those people who interjects Jesus/personal religious views into a ton of conversations even baseball-related ones.

MG: I'd say the Cardinals trading for Halladay and moving him to right field is a far worse deal than the Berkman one.

MG - Yeah. At least not two LOOGYs that we've ever heard of.

Didn't they sign some other marginal lefty the year they added Vic Darensbourg?

Never mind. I was thinking of Les Walrond. But they picked him up during the season.

I can see, though, why Rube's in no hurry to sign anyone with a lot of experience since you can get guys of the quality of Darensbourg and Walrond right up until the start of the season.

So, yeah. Forget Rhodes and Reyes, much less Fuentes. We'll be fine with Bastardo and this year's Darensrond and Walbourg.

Amaro rant:

- Everybody seems to be fixated on RF and the LOOGY spot. Understand RF but not as much on the LOOGY spot given the number of options available on the market.

One area I don't understand why Amaro hasn't been more active is the utility INF spot. Case in point, the Rockies just acquired Jose Lopez from the Mariners for essentially not much more than a bag of baseballs (Chaz Roe).

Now Amaro saw how critical it is to have at least a MLB-caliber backup option defensively who can at least hit adequately last season on a team with aging infielders who are injury-prone the last 2 years (JRoll/Utley).

Does he seriously think that JRoll, Utley, and Polanco will all make it through a season and play 150+ games next year? I don't yet there doesn't seem to be any real indication that this is somewhat of an offseason priority area. Instead, they will likely sign some old veteran journeyman who is on his last legs like they did with Castro.

Lopez was a guy who was tailor-made to play at CBP. He is a dead-ball pull hitter who has some power down the LF line, has a little speed, and is capable of playing all 3 infield positions (2B, 3B, SS) & is a decent defensive option at 2B or 3B.

I know it is a crazy though you have a guy who is under 30 and has those attributes?

FA Market for utility infielders is already really limited especially for guys who can play SS. Blum signed with Arizona and the options are getting pretty slim (Hairston Jr, Counsell, Renteria, Lugo, maybe Eckstein and Cabrera).

Why do I have a feeling that a stiff like Lugo is going to be the guy that Amaro brings in ?

Andy - They signed Meyer for minor-league depth even though he isn't very good vs. lefties. They will definitely sign another lefty veteran reliever but this was one area where I thought it could be until Jan.

I do get where DPatrone is coming from in his rants. Granted Amaro is in a corner due largely to the contract situations/budget but it is one where he placed himself since he has been the GM now since '08. It was almost entirely self-imposed by moves he made - right or wrong.

The question is are the Phils going to start the season with a roster than they finished the year with? The answer will almost certainly be 'no' with slightly less depth in the pen and a much weaker option in RF.

I am willing to see what unfolds but it is going to be really hard for me to swallow when Amaro does the usual fluff jobs over a Diaz/Failcoeur/Rhodes/Lugo signing.

Jesus, guys it's only December 4th! The wintert meetings only start tomorrow!

Sorry December 5th.

TTI~ It all pends where the drift pick would be. A sandwich pick, 1st round,or high 2nd round? How many picks don't make it? I might take the risk.

Mike~ Doesn't matter about the meetings. Amaro isn't going to do much anyway. He's already said that.

MG~ I'm not ranting, just stating some facts and opinions.

On an unrelated note, I read where the Gonzalez deal fell through. A contrct was not finalized by the 2 pm deadline.

TTI: The Phillies also got a sandwich pick when they couldn't sign J.D. Drew. They selected Eric Valent.

BTW, I totally agree with your underlying point: Downs is not worth losing a 1st rounder. But the assumption that the Phils can cut corners while the window is open because their smart drafting will keep them competitive for the 5 years after that strikes me as wishful thinking, especially considering this franchise's track record.

It wasn't long ago that the opinion on this blog was nearly unanimous that Marson and Donald would be stud everyday players.

Jack: Diaz is more valuable than you think and there will be demand for him. I understand you think Francisco can step in and the team won't miss a beat if Brown isn't ready, but I don't share that opinion.

Patrone I wasn't suggesting RAJ was gonna do much at the meetings. I was only pointing out how early in the off season it is.

MG: I don't have a problem with Berkman invoking Jesus, although I don't know why he's talking about a closer rather than a position player.

MG: FWIW, career UZR says Lopez isn't very good at 2B, which is where he'd gotten about 90% of his PT. He's above average at 3B, but that's a small sample. The reports I've seen on him say he has poor range everywhere except 1B.

I like Lopez's power a lot, but the Phils have always tilted toward defense when it comes to their UT INF, which means they'd choose Valdez over Lopez.

clout: Yeah absolutely the front office has a questionable track record when it comes to drafting. I feel like they've shown progress the past two years though where they've mostly avoided toolsy guys early and spent money on guys later in the draft.

With 3 picks out of the first 40+ I'd like to think they can run into one guy who will be worthwhile. They traded away quite a few guys in our farm system over the past year and a half so this seems like a good opportunity to get some guys back into the system. Especially when there are good left-handers on the market that can come for the same price (or a little cheaper) and not cost you the pick.

I mean Okajima or Feliciano would be welcome additions and wouldn't cost us the pick.

For me, I think it's good to stockpile some guys this year- in what I think is supposed to be a strong class- and get some stuff ready for the latter part of this decade.

Clout: If there's so much demand for him, why did a Braves team that desperately needs OFs non-tender him?

My point isn't to not sign him. I think he's a fine bench OF. But I wouldn't be in a rush to give him the type of above-market contract that Amaro gave to Baez, et al. in the past.

The Phils absolutely need to keep their draft picks this year (and the next few), if they're at all interested in being competitive at any time in the decade past 2013.

The Red Sox have shown the model for how to re-stock a farm system while being competitive (hoarding draft picks and spending money on them). The Yanks have done it in a different way by spending a ton of money in the international market. You can do one of those two things--but you have to do something.

Jack: I wouldn't be at all surprised if Diaz re-signs with the Braves. They non-tendered him because he was in line to make at least $4.5-5M in arbitration, which is a bit much for a 4th outfielder/platoon guy.

Reality Check: Phillies 1st round draft picks since 2004:

2004: Greg Golson -- Speaks for itself.

2005: Adrian Cardenas -- Looking like an over-reach. The power never developed and his glove is just average. Likely ends up a league-average player, if that.

2006: Kyle Drabek -- Starting to look like he won't be the ace scouts raved about, but should be solid #2 or #3 starter.

2007: Joe Savery -- Lost 10 mph on his fastball over past 2 seasons and now will try as a position player.

2008: Anthony Hewitt -- Possibly worst #1 pick ever.

2009: No pick.

2010: Jesse Biddle -- Smart kid, scouts see him as back of rotation guy or middle reliever. Too early to tell.

Is that how you build a long-term contender thru the draft?

clout - Yeah it does look like Lopez is more average at 2B. Still, I would just have liked to have seen him in a Phils' uniform vs. what they are likely to sign as a veteran FA market especially when they sign a 'defensive-oriented' utlity INF who isn't so good anymore defensively (Lugo).

clout - It just really annoys me when an athlete bring religious talking points to a sport conversation. Berkman has done that before when I have seen him in the past. Just a personal pet peeve of mine.

clout: You're mixing two valid arguments together.

A good way to build a contender is through the draft.

The Phillies have made some terrible early picks.

For me, I think the MLB draft is usually better for teams that do good jobs hitting guys further down the draft board, but when you have quite a few picks early I'd hope- not saying they will- that the team at least selects a guy who is going to matter down the road.

I know the track record is spotty but I wouldn't just give up on the draft.

The Phillies' recent history with first round picks is indisputably lousy, but I still can't see giving up a first round pick for a relief pitcher. Though few like to admit it, there is a goodly amount of plain old-fashioned luck involved in the MLB draft. No matter how bad the Phillies' recent track record in drafting, they are still more likely to get lucky in Round 1 than they are in subsequent rounds, when the overall talent pool is much thinner.

Werth close to a deal with the Natinals? That's odd.

We wouldn't get the Nats first round pick then right?

nope. they have a protected pick. He signs with the Nats and he will become one of the more hated people to visit CBP. only reason to sign w Nats is bc of money. Can defend signing with the sox or angels....this isn't very defensible.

Clout: The Phils shouldn't give up their 1st round picks because they've been bad in the past--they should make good picks. Simple as that.

Werth to Nationals confirmed. Bizarre.

Why is it not defensible? Players don't have to be what you want them to be. I hate that attitude among fans.

If Werth wants to take a lot of money to go to a rebuilding team, so be it. Doesn't make me think any less of him. The guy has his ring. Let him get his dollars now.

Jack: Agree 100%. Werth has won himself a ring and this was his first (and maybe only) chance to get himself a big dollar deal. Also, he goes to a young team that may be on the cusp of competing for a spot, and Werth gets to be THE guy in Washington. In Boston he would've been a guy.

I am curious to see the $ amount of this deal.

No one, including me, is saying the Phils should give up their first round picks. In fact, I specifically said that I agreed with TTI that Downs is not worth the pick they'd lose.

What I do disagree with is the prevailing notion here that the Phils need the picks because they will select quality players who will keep them in contention for the 5 years after the current window closes.

There is absolutely no evidence for that line of thinking.

it must be a $100 mil for 7 years

I honestly didn't think anyone would pay werth 9 figures. Hope he doesn't hurt that wrist again, actually I do. Does this make Willingham available?

It's rumored to be a 7 year deal.

Congrats to Jayson on his payday. He deserves it. But good luck carrying that team, dude.

clout: I agree with your second paragraph. I don't think a number of high picks equal success in the draft. I do think that if you have more you raise your chances of hitting with one of them.

I don't know what they'll do with the picks. I know what they've done in the past, but I like to think they'll get it right at some point.

Clout: Well they have to at least try. If they make good picks, they absolutely can re-load their system partially through the draft. It won't support an entire contending team in 2015, but it sure helps.

$126 million????? hahahahahahahha jwerth just committed a felony.

I'm interested to see what Werth's stats look like now that he'll see fewer pitches to hit in a less potent lineup. Now he's the guy you pitch around. Also, unless you're the Yankees, it can be hard to build a long tm winner with expensive FAs. Even they've had a tough time with that.

George: I would hope the Nats either front-loaded the deal, or recognize that they're going to have spend over the last few years of it.

Otherwise it's a poor decision.

7 Yrs. $126M per MLBTR

If you were wondering, THAT is why you hire Scott Boras. Congrats to Werth and his family.

Boras did his job, that's for sure. Hope JW has fun playing in Washington.

Now that Werth is there replacing Dunn, that's quite a righty-heavy lineup in Southeast DC.

I wonder if Josh Willingham could be had?

Jack, couldn't agree more. Even if you front end load the deal, it's an average of $18mm per. If it's a typical escalating deal, the idea of paying Werth 21mm-ish a few years out would make me I'll. They're going to need to spend even more to put bats around him.

Great contract for Werth. He struggled through injuries and latched on to the right team at the righe time. With the Phils he won 4 straight divisions, won a World Series and went to another.

Now he'll never have to worry financially for the rest of his life. Can't exactly blame the guy.

Also can't blame the Phils for not bringing him back. No way they could (or should) come close to that deal.

Rumor has it Werth is already sleeping with Stephen Strasburg's wife...

If you can grab 7 yrs 126 million clams, the concept of "hometown discount" doesn't apply on this planet or any other and yet I'm still disappointed.

I wonder how DPatrone feels about this deal. Amaro needed to bring Werth back earlier in the week.

Good job for Werth. Carl Crawford must be loving life right now.

Had Werth signed for 5-60M or 6-75M, I might have suggested the Phils could have brought him back. But money talks, and there was no way the Phils could have retained him.

I wouldn't assume Willingham is available. Don't forget, they have only Willingham and Nyjer Morgan. The third spot ws going to be manned by Roger Bernadina or Mike Morse, neither of whom would be an everyday player with most other teams.

The worst part about him signing with the Nats is that the pick is unprotected, meaning instead of picking somewhere from 19-33, we pick after that.

Of course, Clout thinks this a good thing, apparently, or would prefer we just decline the pick completely. Personally, I just hope we make a good pick.

Clout: True, I'm not assuming Willingham is availble, just raising the possibility that he might be more available than he was before they lost Dunn and signed Werth.

It's not a done deal quite yet. In fact, my sources tell me he is still leaning toward accepting the Phillies 3-year, $55M offer.

Well. I would have loved if Werth was still on the Phils. But that kind of money was definitely a deal breaker. I wonder how long it will be before Washington is regretting that contract. Because they will. Maybe not this year, and maybe not the next; but some day.

It's more Zitoesque than the Tulo signing.

"It's not a done deal quite yet. In fact, my sources tell me he is still leaning toward accepting the Phillies 3-year, $55M offer."

Ya might get some new sources. Werth to the Natinals! for 7/126.

7 years, $126M for Werth: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/werth-.html

Good for him, bad for the Phils, perhaps even worse (eventually) for the Nats

Andy, you think it's more Zitoeseque than Tuloesque? It's almost A-Rodesque.
It would have been better if it was Burrellesque.

Jack: I think they should get as many picks as possible. I just find your naive assumption that it guarantees them contention 5 years out to be amusing.

b-a-p:
We know sarcasm when we hear it.

In re: the draft
Phils have, over the past couple years, used early picks for reaches, but then covered their butts by targetting a couple guys down the board that other teams thought were committed to colleges (Colvin, Cosart, Shreve etc). They've also used a lot of picks in the 7-12 range to get college pitchers. By sheer volume some of those guys turned out okay (so, for instance, Chapman and Brummett don't make it, but Worley does).

What that ends up looking like is that the Phils have "lousy" first draft picks, but end up with a solid minor league system. Also, they have used a couple of those first round guys (Cardenas and Drabek) to further the health of the club.

Quite simply, since the normal drop off in talent is pretty quick in the draft, it's always better to have more early picks rather than fewer. We now have two more early picks.

DPatrone has just received an e-mail from his inside source he wanted me to pass on.

Well friend. I'm hearing that Werth is not going to re-sign with the Phillies. Let me check my sources.

Yes- Werth is signing with the Nationals. I'm hearing 4...no 7 years. And I think it will be for something over 100 million dollars.

yes 126 to be exact.

Hope this helps.

Clout: Nope, I don't assume it guarantees them to stay in contention.

But if they make good draft picks it certainly helps, and this should be a strategy they vigorously pursue. I can't see a reason in the world to disagree with that statement.

Phan:
If they're lucky it's A-Rodesque. But I think it'll turn out more Zitoesque.

This signing and that of Tulo are making the Howard extension look like pretty good work by Rube.

I mean, really, would you pay $18 million for Werth at 40?

new thingie

wow

Oddly enough, I think the Nats did the Phillies a favor. They lost a lot o power in this exchange of Dunn for Werth. They gained some outfield D and speed. And they spent a lot of money.

And the favor? They don't give the Phils another first round pick. I think Clout is a little more down on Biddle than is warranted at this point. But their lick with first round picks is simply dreadful recently. A sandwich pick and a second rounder added together will probably cost them about what a first rounder in the back half of the first round would have. So, they get two shots to make good instead of one that they almost certainly would blow.

However, they have little change of getting what they really need from the draft now, which is middle infield prospects. The top ones will be long gone and as we've seen, the Phillies simply can't eval that area very well. Since Utley, they done squat. Maybe they'll get lucky with Harold Garcia, but he looks to be more of a utility guy than a major league star or even starter.

Holy Moley,
Scott you beat me to it. I was going to ask if Werth slept with Mrs. Obama already signing with the Nats.

Can't wait till next season
I'm so excited about it =P

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