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Monday, December 06, 2010

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I'd target Willingham...he'd be a great fit for us.

Not excited about Diaz at all.

NEPP: There's still plenty of room in the Nats' OF for Willingham. They could also move him to 1st base now that Dunn has left. If they can afford to pay Werth $126M, I can't imagine they would be too financially strapped to pay $4.6M for a player who is far more productive than anyone else they could remotely hope to find for the same price.

They should keep Willingham and actually have 2 legit corner OFs. You're right on Willingham of course. I dont know why I was thinking they'd HAVE to move him.

They have so many other holes though its ridiculous.

I know this is probably overplayed by this point, but what are the odds we can move Ibanez? I know it's slim to none, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable with Willingham or Diaz in left with Brown in right.

You'd feel comfortable with an outfield of Diaz, Victorino and AA phenom Dom Brown?

I'll take Ibanez in a contract year that will make or break his earning potential for what remains of his career over Willingham or Diaz in left.

However, we could do worse than Willingham or a Gload/Diaz platoon in RF with Francisco coming off of the bench.

As far as minor league contracts and ST invites are concerned, Stairs and Sweeney are possibilities I'd like to see for LH/RH power off the bench, but it doesn't seem practical.

I'd be more interested to see Amaro go after Beltre, move Polanco to 2B and Utley to RF, but if I'm going to make outrageous wishes that will never happen, I might as well wish for Cliff Lee.

Will~ That's good strategy. Utley does not have the arm for RH though. Now If they could move Ibanez, and move Utley to LF I'd be all for it. It should certainly save wear and tear on Utley. But let's not hold our breath for anything to happen.

Screw that...get Beltre, convert him to a catcher, move Chooch to 3B, Polly to 2B, Utley to LF, Ibanez to 1B and release Howard outright.

Utley's value as a 2B: Very very high
Utley's value as a LF: very very average to mediocre.

He's worth money because he plays a tough position. There are plenty of LFs capable of giving us the same type of production.

After we bring back Sweeney and Stairs, maybe we can sign Dan Plesac to fill the LOOGY role and Mark Portugal to compete for the 5th starter's spot.

"Finally, the Phillies are a 97-game winner built around dominant starting pitching, one that essentially allowed the offense to take the season off."

I'm not so sure the offense took the season off. While some individual players had career lows, the Phils were a top 5 offense last year.

Back to the topic at hand, the Werth and Tulo deals are starting to make the Howard deal look rather palatable.

"And from the looks of it, he’s got some money to spend, more than enough to entice someone like Matt Diaz to join up."

This is the part I wonder about and if the 4 yr/$66M dollar deal wasn't largely a PR deal because the Phils knew that Werth was going to get a longer deal from someone else & take it. Basically a 'saving-face' move that was never intended to be acted upon by Werth & Boras.

I read that because of were washington is drafting, we won't get a first rounder only a 2nd round pick is that true? source is scout.com / Philly Baseball News

>> Utley's value as a LF: very very average to mediocre.

30 hrs, 100 rbis, and .300 avg is far from mediocre even for a LF -- assuming Utley returns to career norms.

According to the advanced stats, RZR, DRS and UZR/150s, Utley is tops. But he still throws funny, double clutches on throws, and made 11 errors in just 1,000 innings this year. I would also argue Valdez turns the double play better. But all in all, I think Utley is a very good defensive 2B.

Slocs~ Washington's 1st pick is protected. So we get a sandwich pick and a 2nd rounder.

MG~

As I said before, if the offer was truely made, they have money that had to be ok'd by the owners to spend. Now that Werth is gone, don't look for them to spend it.

I can't say what Utley's performance might be if he were moved to an OF position, assuming he's less likely to get hurt playing LF or RF.

A season of Utley without the annual offensive dropoff while playing hurt might be a bit better than average to mediocre.

Either way, it won't happen, so it's a moot point.

Utley's BA and Slugging have gone down three years in a row. Why do so many people believe that he'll return to "career norms?"

Did not read all the comments on Werth being "greedy" and "going to a loser team". But I did say the same thing about Rowand and he won a World Series (beating the Phillies in the process) with that 'horrible' SF team.
[Kind of amusing that instead of being their #5 hitter he was a bench player.]

Utley is an excellent 2B. Hasn't he been hurt as a batter and runner more than fielding? Moving him before his defense is a liability does not make sense to me.

Polanco is more like the typical semi-all-star 2B (good fielding, good avg, little power) and he cannot hold a candle to Utley's production.

Sounds like the Phillies went after Beltre last season which would have been the better move in preparation for the Werth loss this year, but he declined and it worked out for him with a an upcoming bigger payday.

It is pretty clear that Rizzo thinks 'Stage 2' of his rebuilding plan really kicks in 2012 and that Werth will be a key piece of that as the Nats.

Basically if Werth is still a very good player in RF and the Nats do indeed become competitive/contenders in 2012 & 2013, then this might not be a bad deal.

Willingham is in his final year of team control. I would think they'd rather deal him for prospects before he leaves via free agency. With Werth's contract in place, I highly doubt they plan on giving him a deal as well.

Even though the Nats gave Werth this huge deal right now, I highly doubt they think they're in win-now mode.

I'd do a JC Ramirez trade for Hammer if I could get a right to negotiatie a couple year extension instead of just getting a 1 year corner OF.

Point #1: The Nationals are CRAZY!

Point #2: Our BIGGEST issue last year was timely and consistant hitting. Werth was a part of the problem. I'm not too excited about Ibanez coming back and/or a platoon with Gload/Francisco/D. Brown. That's going to be a weak lineup. Who knows which Chase Utley we are going to see. The "downside" of his career Utley again? Rollins has been on his downside since 2008. Is there another Polanco type hitter out there for us to get in the outfield? Matt Diaz??? Really? He never made much of an impression with me on the Braves.

If you think Mike Morse and Roger Bernadina are hot prospects then you probably could be deluded into thinking the Nats have to move Willingham for a lowball offer.

"I would think they'd rather deal Willingham for prospects before he leaves via free agency."

Yep, the Nats have to dump talent because they refuse to spend money....oh wait.

If I'm the Nats, or any last place team, why would you ever let a player reach free agency? Yes a Type A will get you compensation, but if the player is good enough to be a Type A, you more than likley can trade him for a much better package than two picks in the first two rounds.

clout: do you think that the Nats will keep Willingham and extend/re-sign him beyond 2011?

"Phillies to meet with Francoeur's reps"

Unrelated question: What's the story with Valdez?

Related question: Any thoughts about what PhillieNation had to say about Xavier Nady? Could be the discount pickup that Werth was not long ago.

Also, MLBtr said that Beltre is looking for 5/70m. Doesn't seem that unreasonable for a guy that is the same age as Werth with comparable numbers. If he could be had, I'd live with whatever defensive downgrade Utley presents in RF.

Such a scenario would also allow for flexibility if anyone were to get hurt. Between Valdez, Utley, Polanco and Francisco, the deck could be shuffled to adjust for an injury.

"Phillies to meet with Francoeur's reps"

Pukes on keyboard. For me the least palatable option that we've heard mentioned. I'd rather do nothing than sign Frenchy the Douchebag.

jason/phaithful: Unless they sign or trade for a MLB-ready replacement, yes.

If you take Rizzo at his word, his stretegy is to make the team more competitive in the short term while waiting for their top talent (Strasberg, Harper, Desmond, Norris) to mature, which they should do over the next 3-4 years.

Dumping Willingham for fringe prospects would make no sense for that strategy.

Will: Nady was one of the names mentioned here as an insurance policy for a Brown flop. There's about half a dozen of those guys available. I think Rube will kick the tires on all of them.

Oooo...Francoeur! He's that great player that...

wait.

Different guy.

I think Frenchie would really solidify the IronPigs outfield...

I wonder if Frenchy the Douchebag will even fit on the back of his uniform?

One of Werth's great talents was pitches per AB. That helped the entire lineup. Frenchy would be the anti-Werth. Pitchers would be throwing 60 pitches to get through 7 innings.

Yes. Frenchy is exactly what we don't need. I mean 180 degrees from a perfect fit.

well difference of opinion I guess. I think the Nats trade Willingham by the 2011 deadline, which is why I think the Phils should be interested.

And to get the deal done I would offer more than a fringe prospect. I thought you valued Ramirez as a B prospect? I wouldn't touch the single A arms we have, but I'd be pretty open to move anyone else.

With a full season of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt, this team has the luxury of starting the season with a Brown/ Francisco platoon, and hoping that Rollins, Utley, and Victorino improve after down years.

If none of those guys delivers, then Rube should make a move near the trade deadline. But signing someone like Franceour is just going to complicate things, and make it harder to get an impact player at the deadline.

jason/phaithful: As I said earlier, they may well trade him. I just don't think they'll trade him for prospects 3-4 years away. I they do deal him it will be for MLB ready talent. I take Rizzo at his word. Rebuilding is over.

Stark tweeted that Charlie thinks he can "fix" Franceour

Well that's just great.

Phillies to meet with Francoeur's reps"

Commence projectile vomiting.

Maybe Willingham for Rizzotti...one for one? I'd do it in a heart beat....and the Nats need a first basemen lh bat....Rizz could make his splash with the nats.

Francouer. Awesome.

Brown would literally have to go for 0 for Spring Training for me to believe that Frenchy is a better option as the everyday RF. And even then I'd be skeptical. I think Brown could have been a more effective everyday MLB player LAST YEAR than Francoeur (who was the 53 out of 58 in OPS of OFs with enough ABs to qualify).

NoNameFame: Sounds like a slam dunk to me. Heck, they'd probably throw in Strasburg.

I mean, UC has done such a great job turning other guys into patient hitters...like, um, well

Anyone?

Typical Phillies offensive strategy:

1st batter: Try to hit a HR
2nd batter: Try to really hit a HR
3rd batter: really really try to hit a HR.

After the 3 Ks/weak groundouts...repeat.

clout: since when is 1 year of willingham at arbritration the most prized possession on the market?

The diamondbacks just gave up Mark Reynolds for a pair of relievers intheir mid 20s.

"Stark tweeted that Charlie thinks he can "fix" Franceour"

You can't fix stupid, Charlie.

NEPP: My thoughts exactly,but since I only post drivel or racial slurs,don't consider my comment meaningful.

goody: i'm with you. My prejudice against french people probably is the reason I don't want the Phils to sign Francouer.

I refuse to waste a perfectly good barf bag over something that is just a rumor. Oh wait. It's too late.

jason/phaithful: You don't think they can get an MLB ready player for Willingham? Bet they can.

Willingham is in line to make $6 million or more this year, and then hit FA. His value is something closer to $10-11 million for a single season.

I don't think you have to trade a top stud to get a guy making just below his value for only one year, but you would probably have to trade a guy who is close to MLB-ready. The Phils have a lot of potential very good prospects at lower levels (Singleton, Cosart, May, Colvin), but they don't have anyone close to MLB-ready. They fired all those bullets in the Lee and Halladay deals. So a trade with the Nats doesn't line up.

It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the Nats deal Willingham--trading guys at age 32 who are about to leave for FA is exactly what teams like that should do. It would, however, surprise me to see them trade Willingham to the Phillies.

clout: Then I hope its the Phillies who are the ones giving them that player.

clout: Then I hope its the Phillies who are the ones giving them that player.

I think that depends on the definition of "MLB ready player" I mean, Antonio Bastardo is an "MLB ready player" for example.

jason/phaithful: Come to think of it, Reynolds makes my point, not yours. Hernandez is a top prospect who is major league ready.

NEPP: Greg Golson was also "MLB ready."

NEPP: Bastardo plus a low-level prospect for Willingham actually sounds about right.

Bastardo has pretty similar numbers to Clout's "top prospect" David Hernandez.

Goody & Jason: Don't bring it up again unless you want to discuss it again for the next page or two. I can and will accommodate your need to discuss it. I leave it up to you...

why would we trade our only lh option out of the BP? No way. If rizzo is stoopid enough to pay Werth $126 mil, i think he is stoopid enough to trade Willingham for Rizzotti.

Will Schweitzer: bring up what? Your predilection for ridiculous pomposity, your intentional obtuseness, or your unnatural fondness for strawmen? I'd sooner discuss Cliff Lee.

Jack: While the minor league stats are similar, scouts rate Hernandez a superior prospect to Bastardo.

Will: believe it or not, I can skip over your posts if desired, so knock yourself out and talk about any topic you'd like.

re: willingham

Whatever anyone's opinion is of what Willingham could be moved for or if they will trade him at all - the fact remains that he'd be a great fit in the Phils lineup. His OBP and gap power from the right side of the plate, along with his contract status, should make him a candidate for the Phils to really make a move on. Outside of our top 5-6 guys and our MLB starters, I'd probably move anyone else to get him.

jason/phaithful: I agree with you that Willingham would be a nice fit here. But I also agree with Jack that the Phillies lack the upper-level prospects to make the trade.

Will: As a one-finger typist,I don't care to discuss it for 2 pages, but I do love pulling your chain. Your posts are hilarious. I do hope I spelled something wrong to make your day.

****NEPP: Greg Golson was also "MLB ready."***

LOL...yes, yes he was.


I've never heard Hernandez described as the "next Johan Santana"...

Worley is a major league ready Phillies prospect. He's certainly not a blue chipper, but he might be of interest to the Nats. You'd have to throw in some additional dudes, though.

Jbird "Your predilection for ridiculous pomposity, your intentional obtuseness, or your unnatural fondness for strawmen?"

Care to elaborate, or are you content to piss and moan like a fool for no apparent reason?

Jason "believe it or not, I can skip over your posts if desired, so knock yourself out and talk about any topic you'd like."

Skip over whatever you like. I only offer to discuss the issue of racism because of your incessant need to bring up the topic. I believe this makes four separate threads that you saw fit to bring up the topic. Obviously, it's something you wish to discuss, so I will accommodate your desire:

If you say that we shouldn't hire Francouer because of an ignorant belief in a stereotype based on his ethnicity, you are a bigot. Case in point, your defense of the belief that Contreras should not be signed to a two year contract because his ethnicity reveals to you that he must be lying about his age. In other words, your repeated defense of bigotry and your shocking desire to have this same discussion each and every day, revealed by the fact that you have brought up the issue yet again.

On the other hand, if your dislike of Francouer has to do with his piss poor performance and not with an ethnic stereotype, your bigotry cannot be said to extend to born-again Christians with French ancestry.

You see, when you use an ethnic stereotype as your basis for a decision (particularly when that decision has to do with his ability or lack thereof to work), you are a bigot. Since you have used no such ethnic stereotype as your basis for not signing Francouer, you are not guilty of bigotry in this instance.

Any further questions by you or anyone else on the matter, please feel free to ask. I will respond to each of them individually.

Worley would probably hang around as at least a 5th starter on a team like the Nats for several years. He's no different than a couple dozen other fringe back of the rotation guys.

NEPP: True, Hernandez, unlike Bastardo, is not "The Next Santana" but he did put up a 1.05 WHIP and 79/18 K/BB ratio over 57 1/3 innings this year in Trip A.

If Worley wasn't good enough Kendrick probably would be. Just sayin...

Goody: You're not pulling my chain. You may be inconveniencing others who don't wish to see this conversation start up yet again, but personally, it amuses me to rub an ignorant person's nose in their own sh**, and to do so over and over and over again for as long as they wish to keep up their end of the ping pong.

You'll note that I have not and will not bring up the topic on my own, but I will make sure that it is discussed each and every time that someone else brings it up (and responses about how irritating the conversation itself is only serve to enhance the effect that I'm going for). In short, don't bring it up and it won't be discussed. Bring it up and it will be discussed....endlessly.

Clout: Sickels had Hernandez as a B- in his last year as a prospect, and Bastardo as a C+.

The minor league numbers are very similar. Believe it or not, Bastardo actually has BETTER major-league numbers in terms of K/9, and K/BB ratio. Plus, he's left-handed.

I know you think Bastardo is awful, but he's actually quite a good relief pitcher prospect, certainly as good as or better than guys you've advocated on here like Dunn and David Hernandez. Dunn was part of a Dan Uggla deal, and Hernandez got Mark Reynolds. I don't think its a stretch at all to say Bastaro plus a lower-level guy would get Willingham.

Until Hernandez is preposterously compared to a future HOF level pitcher, I have no interest in him as a "top" prospect.

bap: I was thinking about Worley too. If that would satisfy the MLB Ready part, and then add on another prospect who is further away like a JC Ramirez or Matthew Way or a bigger risk/reward gamble like Julio Rodriguez. Or maybe an older guy like Rizzoti is something the Nats might value enough to include with Worley.

I just hope Rueben is in the front of the line when the Nats are asking for offers, whether hes got the best chance or not.

Hernandez has a low to mid 90's fastball with a good slider, but not much of a changeup, and he struggles with command and control.

The scouting reports combined with the numbers basically tell me he's a right-handed Bastardo with a little less fastball.

I find it odd to what lengths Clout will go to deny that Bastardo is a pretty good relief pitching prospect.

Funny thought, what exactly could the Phillies get if we tried to package Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez?

****Funny thought, what exactly could the Phillies get if we tried to package Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez?****

A former Cy Young pitcher?

Will: sounds good. I'll make sure to randomly throw in comments that refer to race or prejiduce in every thread, and then you can try to find it and respond to them like I actually care...but be careful, I'll try to hide them as best I can!! This will be an awesome game!

"Stark tweeted that Charlie thinks he can "fix" Franceour"

Laughed at.

Will: I think the rest of your comment effectively elaborates on my point, you are a tragic parody.

nepp: Hah heres one that might actually work:

gillies aumont ramirez for Barry Zito.

"A former Cy Young pitcher?"

As in the corpse of Cy Young?

Well, Zito IS a former Cy Young Pitcher.

Jack: Hernandez and Dunn are both better prospects than Bastardo. Also, I suspect Sickels' grade on Hernandez would be higher than B- this year given the numbers he put up in Triple A. Also, Hernandez is a SP and Bastardo is a LOOGY.

I agree that Bastardo is a pretty good LOOGY prospect. Not the All-Star you've predicted and not the Next Santana but, like Sickels says, a C+ prospect who, if he can improve his command at the major league level, is a nice bullpen piece.

Hernandez, as a projected #3 or #4 SP, is more valuable.

I really don't hope that 'Failcoeur' ends up being the Phils' RF next year. One guy I would have had hard time rooting for and their hasn't been a guy on this team since Eaton that I really disliked.

Why is everybody trading Willingham away from DC? He plays corner OF and 1st and they now need a 1st baseman, wouldn't they just keep him.
They need to save their dough for Lee.
"He and Jayson Werth are like best buddies," Braunecker said. "For what it's worth."

"Funny thought, what exactly could the Phillies get if we tried to package Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez? "

Laughed at! That should make a little more sense.

Hernandez isnt really a "top" prospect. I mean, he'll be 26 next year with 2 very mediocre MLB seasons behind him. He's a good reliever prospect at this point, not a "top" prospect.

Just reported in the Sporting News...Phils sign Jeff Franceour 8 years/$126.00

gillies aumont ramirez might nab you a former CY Young winner in Jake Peavy too - and all +$50M that he's still owed over the next 3 years.

NEPP: He'll be in the D'backs rotation.

Diaz looks "more enticing by the moment".

Yea, right. He looks like the right-handed version of Greg Dobbs, who will be out of baseball by this time next year. He's a 33 year old, right-handed pinch-hitter who swings at everything and has no speed or defensive ability and lost 60 points on his average last year.

And Frenchy is even worse. He's a guy I always was begging to come up in a big spot when he was with Atlanta and New York, because he was a automatic easy out. He's another guy, who we don't need or should even want.

They're gonna use him as a starter?!? That should be, ahem, interesting.

We could probably get Peavy AND Zito for those 3...as long as we picked up all the salary.

Clout: I was assuming Hernandez as a reliever. The O's tried him as a starter in 2009, and then bumped him back down to a reliever after that.

If the DBacks want to try him as a starter too, consider me skeptical. He's a solid relief pitching prospect on a good team, to me, just like Bastardo. If Bastardo was traded to a bad team without starters and was put back in the rotation, would that suddenly jump his stock for you?

What the Lee3 couldn't get you?

Brandon Morrow - who the Phils left in the Mariners system to be traded to the Blue Jays days after the Lee trade, who had a couple outstanding games in 2010 and has one of the brighter futures for a starting pitcher in the whole league.

Don't forget that Diaz is Cholly's neighbor,so he has that going for him.

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