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Monday, November 22, 2010

Comments

As I've noted before, I like Cesar Hernandez. It'd be great if he could still pick a little shortstop, but his career OBP is .07 over his BA which itself is respectable. 70 SBs in 92 attempts. And he's young.

I also describes De Fratus as "legit" - well said.

Rizzotti doesn't have enough power to be an MLB 1B, and he doesn't have the skills to play anywhere else in the field.

Ergo, he's not much of a major-league player. Bench bat, at best.

Jack, What Rizzotti does or doesn't have in the way of power is irrelevant in that the Phils chose to protect him anyway. They obviously feel they may be able to get something for him - that is, more than $50K - so whether he does or doesn't have enough power is pointless.

Besides, as JW correctly pointed out, he's blocked by Howard )and his untradeable contract) so there's no way he makes it onto the Philly roster.

Also, from what I understand he's really limited defensively, i.e. he's worse than Howard, and in this new game of advanced metrics that's being employed by many MLB teams, that may disqualify him more than any lack of power.

Although I will state this:

Maybe if he's really lucky Rizzotti will make an MLB team, and near the end of his career win a WS ring while playing 1B and hitting only one HR the entire season. :)

awh: I don't get your post. Why is Rizzotti's lack of power irrelevant in evaluating him as a player?

I wasn't evaluating the Phils' decision to keep him. Just saying that he doesn't project to be much of an MLB player, because he doesn't hit for enough power to play 1B, and can't play anywhere else defensively (and can barely play there).

There are teams which might want Rizzotti because they have a place for him which requires no defense. I foresee him going in a swap with an AL club.

I want Cesar to get at least to Williamsport this year.

Arrrrrggghhh...Clearwater.

Really. Monday morning before coffee is no time to try to be coherent.

November 23: Deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents.

I guess the Phils offer Durbin & Werth arbitration ??

The Phils will obviously offer arb to Werth. They should offer to Durbin as well, though they've been gunshy on this in the past.

I dont know that I'd offer arb to Durbin. He'd likely accept and we'd be stuck giving him a raise on his $2.125 M salary in 2010.

Is that worth a supplemental pick? We already seemingly spent that money on Contreras.

Just saw Stark on Sportscenter and he said that several teams had inquired about Blanton. I hadn't heard anything about this, anybody have any news on this?

They should offer arb to durbin as well. If he accepts fine. At least you know what you've got. If he doesn't, then we've got to get someone to replace him. I don't see Amaro spending any kind of money on RH relief pitching this off-season.

So Durbin gets a raise, so what. Deal with it for 1 year and then see what happens next go-around.

Werth's a no brainer, he'll get offered, decine, and we'll get picks.

****Just saw Stark on Sportscenter and he said that several teams had inquired about Blanton. I hadn't heard anything about this, anybody have any news on this?

Posted by: Vonderful | Monday, November 22, 2010 at 11:45 AM

****

That's not possible. We were specifically told last winter (after coming off a very good season) that Blanton had no trade valuable and was unmovable. Either these teams are mistaken or Rube lied...and we all know its not the latter.

Thome:Howard::Howard:Rizzotti. There, I said it.

****So Durbin gets a raise, so what. Deal with it for 1 year and then see what happens next go-around.****

Say he accepts and he ends up with around $2.5 million (low end guess). That puts us at the following committed to the bullpen in 2011:

Lidge: $12 M
Madson: $4.833 M
Baez: $2.75 M
Contreras: $2.5 M
Durbin: $2.5 M
Bastardo: $400K
Herndon: $400K
2nd Lefty: ??? (This is where that money needs to go)

Ok, teams inquired about BJB....what does that mean though? Does anyone think a starting rotation including KK and Vance Worley will be enough for a team to win 90-95 games? haha, no way.....gotta have BJB in that rotation, unless someone wants to give us a power RH bat that gets on base, drives in runs, steals bases, and plays superb defense...

(Trade Blanton for salary relief and sign Werth?)

Regarding arb offers, decisions must also be made for KK and Ben.
I suppose that both are relative no-brainers for this arb year 1. But after this year, not so much.

Regarding arb offers, decisions must also be made for KK and Ben.
I suppose that both are relative no-brainers for this arb year 1. But after this year, not so much.

Blanton will make $10.5 million this year and next. I dont think we're getting much for him in return.

Yeah, i can't imagine that a year later teams may change their minds/reassess their teams/budgets and then target a certain player...

****Yeah, i can't imagine that a year later teams may change their minds/reassess their teams/budgets and then target a certain player...

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Monday, November 22, 2010 at 11:57 AM
****

You think he'd have more trade value when he costs $7 million more per year AND is coming off a far worse year?

I'm just hinting that he very well MIGHT have had value last year but it was never really explored fully.

Right now, if the Phillies tender contracts to Ben Fran and KK (assuming raising to 1 MM each)...the phillies have 19 players under ML contracts for $147.93 (according to COTS). Factor in Bastardo, Herndon, and Brown at league minimums...$149.34 Mill for 22 players...budget is getting out of control haha (this figure includes $7 mil cash monet from the Oswalt deal)

If we really want to move Blanton for strictly salary relief, we would have to trade Blanton and a B/B+ prospect for a C- prospect. Yes I'm implying he has negative value, especially if the other team is paying his salary.

It's just not worth it because we make our system worse, plus we create a hole in the rotation. Blanton isn't going anywhere, unless the other team's GM makes a dumb trade.

The alternative is a swap of bad contracts, but that wouldn't provide any salary relief.

Also:

Phillies have $91.4 Mill committed to 8 players in 2012, $57.29 Mill committed to 3 players in 2013, and $25 Mill (hahhahaha) committed to 1 player in 2014.

Just if anyone was wondering.

We should and will tender contracts to Ben Fran and KK. They're worth what they'll get in the arbitration process.

I assume our payroll will end up in the $160 M range this year.

$11 Million for three roster spots then NEPP...I guess we get a RH OF on the cheap, Wilson Valdez, and spend the rest on a LH reliever

****Also:

Phillies have $91.4 Mill committed to 8 players in 2012, $57.29 Mill committed to 3 players in 2013, and $25 Mill (hahhahaha) committed to 1 player in 2014.

Just if anyone was wondering.

****

Which isnt really that bad. The Phillies should be willing to take a 1 year hit in profits to keep this team together as it will ensure larger profits in the future to stay competitive. Its just 1 bad year. Lidge and Ibanez are gone after 2011 so that's nearly $25 million right there off the books. I'd guess that they'll target Madson for an extension to replace Lidge so that'll be costly but not $12 million costly I dont think.

Does Valdez get the Castro contract from last year? or More?

***$11 Million for three roster spots then NEPP...I guess we get a RH OF on the cheap, Wilson Valdez, and spend the rest on a LH reliever***

I would assume they'd leave $3-5 million for mid-season acquistions...so figure closer to $5-6 million for the 3 players. Unless they go nuts with a Magglio type signing...If that happens, I would expect a 2nd tier LOOGY and Valdez level signing to fill out the roster with very little mid-season action.

They are gonna be short on inflield depth and CF depth if they use the last three spots for:

Valdez
5th Outfielder on the cheap
LOOGY

5 outfielders kinda seems outrageous unless one of them can play the inf.

Jack, I was just busting your chops a little.

Seriously, though, I think you "mis-evaluate" Rizotti, or at least, "mis-evaluate" what it takes to be more than a bench bat in MLB.

While we are all wow'ed by the healthy stats put up by DH tyes in MLB - ala Ortiz, Thome, Guerrero and Thomas - there are an awful lot of AB going to DH's in the AL every year who are mediocre at best.


In 2010, this is the average line put up by a player on an AL roster at the DH position:

.252 .332 .425, with 308 HR in 9,178 PA (1 HR/29.8 PA).

Thinking that might be an anomoly, I checked 2009 and 2008:

2009: .255 .337 .443, with 366 HR in 9,249 PA (1 HR/25.3 PA)

2008: .256 .339 .435, with 333 HR in 9,262 PA (1 HR/27.8 PA)


Now, I don't know if Rizzoti's numbers at all the levels last season will translate well into MLB, but I do know that if even the Yankees signed someone like Nick Johnson(mediocre power) to be their DH because of his great on-base skills, it seems to me that some AL team might take a shot on Rizotti, and that the Phillies might get something of value for him from an AL team.

Who knows? Rizotti could wind up being a decent DH in some small market AL town.

Trading Blanton would be a good idea if they can swing it. Why pay your 4th starter 3rd starter money. I guess it's possible they could find a taker. Beyond the 1st 4 or 5 guys, there's not that much demonstrably better than Blanton.

Jack, what amazes me about the AL DH stats, is that the BA and OBP numbers are BELOW league average in the AL for all three years...from a guy who's only job is to hit and get on base.

Go figure.

"2nd Lefty: ??? (This is where that money needs to go)"

NEPP~ I understand that. And I apprieciate the 'pen $ breakdown. If Amaro needed more flexibility there, he shouldn't have signed Baez last year for 2 years and given Contreras 2 years last week. Some of the contaracts he gives are for 1 year too long. He did the same thing with Raul.

Well that's what he did. Unfortunately, the payroll will go up if he wants to bring top talent. LH relief is very important (as we all know too well) and he has to be prepared to pay for it.

In Durbin's case, at least you know what you have, and you have some cost certainty in retaining him.

The 3-year deal Benoit got last week just puts a higher premium on relief pitching, just as Holliday's deal lat year did with Of'ders.

FA players aren't cominig here on the cheap. They want to get paid. If RAJ doesn't want to spend the bucks, then he won't get decent talent. We will all suffer for that.

Do they move Blanton? Only if they have someone better than him coming in. KK has no trade value. Maybe they don't offer arb to Durbin, bring in a back-end starter and move KK to the 'pen. I don't know.

awh: There's something wrong with the way AL teams are doing business. The DH seems to be being used as a rotating spot for bench-quality position players, rather than being used to get high-quality AAAA-type hitters who can't play defense. I don't really get it, personally.

Also, KK will get more than 1 mill in arb. Expect something closer to 2.

If you figure Pettite and C____ L__ aren't really on the open market, who's that leave? De La Rosa, Penny, Pavano, Garland, and Javy Vazquez. All those guys have varying degrees of question marks. If the Phillies kicked in 3 mil a season, I could see a team being interested in being on the receiving end of a salary dump. Especially since those other guys will probably take more money and years.

One way to assess the potential 2011 rotation is to compare it to 2010.

2010
Halladay
Hamels
Blanton
Happ
Moyer

2011
Halladay
Hamels
Oswalt
Blanton
&
pick 'em: Kendrick, Worley, etc.

Is a rotation of H2O and Kendrick and Worley not as deep but "better" than the perceived rotation at the beginning of 2010.

(Remember, no one really knew if Hamels would rebound, or what they'd get from Moyer. Also, Happ was picked by many to have a big falloff from 2009.)

Jack, I agree with you in your view of AL teams. Thus, a hitter like Rizotti might just make it as a DH in a smaller market.

"Why pay your 4th starter 3rd starter money?"

Maybe because you think that the 4th best starter in your rotation is actually a No. 3 starter relative to the rest of the league, and you're aspiring to have something better than an average team.

BAP- well that was enlightening, thanks. I'm not saying trade him just to trade him, my point is, why pay your 4th starter 10 million if it keeps you from filling a more vital component on the team. If the Phillies don't need the salary relief to get where they want to be, then great, keep him.

And, I think it's a little more than having Blanton on the roster that makes Philadelphia an above average team.

In completely non-related offseason news:

Ex-Phillie and ex-online investment guru Lenny Dykstra's Thousand Oaks, Calif., mansion, which Dykstra borrowed $18.5 million to buy from hockey great Wayne Gretzky in 2007, has been acquired in a bankuptcy foreclosure sale by creditor Jeff Smith of Index Investors, the LA Times reports here.

Smith, a developer, lent Dykstra more than $700,000 to fix Dykstra's private jet and for other needs before Dykstra declared bankruptcy. Smith bid approximately the value of his debt to buy the mansion in the ensuing foreclosure sale. Smith is fixing up the property and plans to sell it at a profit after using proceeds to pay off Dykstra's mortgage to JPMorgan Chase and other loans, LAT says.


Read more: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/Ex-Phillie_Dykstra_loses_185M_mansion_over_761K_loan.html#ixzz162QGn4fU


http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/Ex-Phillie_Dykstra_loses_185M_mansion_over_761K_loan.html

JBird: My somewhat obtuse point was this: in a typical year, Blanton isn't really a No. 4; he's a No. 3. He's only a No. 4 because he happens to play on a team that has 3 terrfic starting pitchers. So we can press our advantage by paying No. 3 money to our 4th best starter, or we can aspire to be average by paying No. 4 money for a league average No. 4 (or, more accurately, someone we cross our fingers & hope will be a league average No. 4 when, in reality, we have absolutely no idea how he will turn out).

Also, Blanton is a good pitcher, way under-appreciated by too many fans. I think it's clear he's made major strides in the past year-and-a-half, masked by his injury-caused poor start to 2010. Keeping Blanton makes the Phillies better; his contract is fine.

DPatron - "The 3-year deal Benoit got last week just puts a higher premium on relief pitching, just as Holliday's deal lat year did with Of'ders."

Don't know if it put a premium on relief pitchers. Benoit just had a great year in the toughest division to pitch in baseball. Tigers paid a premium for what they regard as an elite setup man because Zumaya had reconstructive elbow surgery & they don't have much money or back-end guys in their bullpen.

Dykstra has become so weirdly, sort of profoundly, symbolic of the problems of contemporary America. I mean, not only was the guy artificially inflating his own body with steroids during the height of that particular era in baseball, but then he became really rich for a moment there speculating in grossly inflated stocks, right before the whole market came crashing down. He had that ridiculous piece (on 20/20 or 60 minutes?) about how, gee, in this economy even Lenny Dykstra can make tons of money, while he babbled incoherently about his investing strategy. Turned out to be, like the rest of the pre-2007 economy, a total fabrication.

Still, I always liked him when he was a Phil, so I feel bad for him.

I wonder why anyone would think the Phils will offer Durbin arb? Seems I have been cast in the role of Dubin-hater on this board. But I'm not. The guy is worth a minor league invite after a bad season, in which he had a poor second half and dreadful playoffs, and his pitch movement within the strike zone seemed to disappear.

Durbin will not be offered arb. And if by some chance he is, we will have major grounds to have Rube Jrs. sanity evaluated.

Yeah, I don't see Durbin being offered arbitration. The slightly more interesting question is whether they dispose of Ben Fran before or after arbitration.

aksmith, so you reduce your evaluation of Durbin's work to a "poor second half and dreadful playoffs"?

Do you think every GM in MLB will?

AWH - No, I think someone will offer Durbin the minimum and a major league deal. And he'll be mediocre for them.

He's a good guy, who appears to be only marginally effective at best now. He's a failed starter and a future mediocrity who had his best seasons in Philly. But there are lots of guys who won't get deals at all who are as good as he will be going forward. If the Phillies are unhappy in the Spring with their kids, they will be able to pick one up on the cheap then. But 2.? million for Durbin? Not in this lifetime.

On the subject of relievers, anyone think Scott Eyre is tired of playing with the kids and would come back for a mil or 1.5 mil to once again save the day? Being strictly a LOOGY, I could see him pitching no more than 40-50 innings and being worth every penny.

Right, and throwing 1.5 million at Scott Eyre, who old, average, and took a year off, is a great allocation of money.

I wonder what writer gave Ryan Howard a 2nd place vote in the MVP. That's pretty amazing.

BB - And you say this because you've seen Scott recently and know if he's been working out and dieting?

And look at his time with the Phillies. Average? I'll take that performance from my average guys any time. He was outstanding.

Offering Durbin arbitration and have the possibility he gets a raise to $2.5 (and likely more)? I would be really surprised especially since they already signed Contreras.

aksmith: Durbin's ERA was above league average last year, he struck out more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and opposing hitters hit just .246 against him. And a 4.32 ERA, which is what he had in the second half, is not exactly "poor."

It's not like I'm on the bandwagon to resign Chad Durbin. But it's preposterous to say that he's worth no more than a minor league deal, or that he could be had on a one-year deal for league minimum. Durbin was a 65th to 70th percentile major league reliever last year. He will sign a multi-year deal with someone for a good $2 to $3M per year.

Does Durbin get the likely chance to compete for the 5th starter spot on a team or a multi-year deal? Nah. He will get notably more than the veteran league minimum though. Not coming off a serious injury or horrendous season and not say 37-38.

BAP: Re: Joe Blanton being a #3 pitcher, not really a #4.

Blanton's ERA+ this past season was 84. How does that compare to other #3 pitchers in the league?

I guess we'll see what Durbin gets and then we'll know. All I do know is that I would not be paying him more than the minimum were I a gm.

clout: Clearly, he wasn't a No. 3 this year. But if he pitches to his 102 career ERA+, as I expect he will next year, then he's your garden variety No. 3.

Yo, new thread

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