Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Chooch gets his due: Ruiz finishes 17th in MVP | Main | Report: Phils express interest in journeyman Reyes »

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Comments

I would have liked to have gotten an extra draft pick for losing him, but I guess the donwside risk of him accepting arbitration outweighs the benefit of getting some extra help on the farm.

I heard some crazy rumor that some clubs are talking to Durbin to convert back to a starter? HUH?

While Herndon needs a little seasoning, I actually felt he did a fine job chewing up frames down the strech. Durbin was one of my favorite 'pen arms and I would hope the Phils can work out something with him, but at the same time, maybe it's time to get younger in that role. With Herndon and the list of other candidates mentioned, it seems not only the economic answer but maybe the better answer.

Only a desperate team like the Pirates would consider that.

He's been a useful bullpen warrior, but, after his NLCS Game 4 disaster, I am ready to cut the cord with Durbin.

re: Bill Hall

I think he will have a decent interest around the league to prevent him to come to the Phillies. Any platoon mate in the corner OF will likely have to be pretty cheap and settle for a 1 year deal. Hall should be able to get better from other teams.

Reasons i mentioned above are why I have been more interested in the Dec 2nd deadline to tender players under team control than the recent free agent arb deadline - in terms of adding an outfielder.

jason tp, do you have anyone in particular in mind?

Scott Hairston of the Padres.

his 2010 was pretty awful, but it was injury plagued and he still maintained his splits, showing the ability to hit LHP much better.

My main reasons are his defensive ability to cover CF, his LHP splits, and his likely cheap price tag/commitment coming off a poor year.

And his numbers at CBP don't hurt his case too much - bonafide phillie killer.

jasontp - Me too although it wouldn't surprise me if the Phils potentially look for a reliever closely too on a potential veteran league minimum/minor league deal too.

I don't mind seeing Durbin goes but the issue is that it puts Baez in a likely key role coming out of spring training. I can't believe the Phils are going to go into a season with only Lidge/Madson/Contreras as 'definites' in the pen and relying upon the likes of Baez, Bastardo, and other internal options to round out the pen to start the year.

Phils should ship Rizzoti to O's. They are looking for a 1B. Not sure what they could get.BP help: Hendrickson?

Yeah, i know what you mean. So much room for things to go wrong for the bullpen it gets pretty concerning if you think too much into it.

It really helps to keep them in comparison with their competition tho. A high confidence in a team's pen at this point of the year may be the rarest thing in the league.

It really hasn't gotten discussed anywhere I have seen but I still wonder what the Phils will get out of Lidge next year.

Is he going to be the same guy who throws sliders at a 70% clip and more often that not starts hitters with a slider on the first pitch? Will he be able to throw that knee-high slider for a strike with enough consistency?

I also wonder if teams aren't going to make an adjustment especially when they realize that his first pitch is likely to be a slider and that if you fall behind in the count will almost exclusively see a slider.

Really hard to succeed at the MLB level being a 'one-trick' pony even if Lidge has a few variations of his slider.

Scott Hairston has a career .303 OBP. He's a worse player than Ben Francisco.

Why do people want some guy to come in just for the sake of someone coming in? If he's not better than what we have, it's a waste. I would rather just have Dom play every day than give the job to Scott freaking Hairston.

****Really hard to succeed at the MLB level being a 'one-trick' pony even if Lidge has a few variations of his slider. ****

See HOFFMAN, Trevor.

Jack: There are 24 position players locked in this year.

I am projecting the 25th.

And Hairston hits LHP better than every single bench options we have and would play a better defensive LF/CF/RF than all of them as well.

*Jack: There are 24 position players locked in this year.*

Well, technically only 21 since they could option/nontender Dom, Fransisco - and Valdez might nto be brought back.

But still, Hairston is my pick for 25th man if he is not brought back my SDP, since I predict his contract will be what a 25th man should be paid.

Hairston would be a good 25th man.

Jasontp: Sure, as 25th man Hairston would be fine. If he's the plan to play RF, though, or even to platoon with Dom, that's a bad idea.

If all we do is add Hairston, then Dom should start every day in RF. He's likely to be better than Hairston this season.

NEPP: According to Jack, bringing in a 25th player "just to bring him in" is a waste.

They should only sign 7 position players and put a garbage can on first base with a glove attached.

Jack is absolutely certain Dom Brown will have a tremendous year if he's just put into the lineup every day. Needs no more seasoning at all.

That certain knowledge gives Jack an edge over the rest of us who think a safety net would be a wise investment for a kid whose career Triple A experience is 28 games.

Hairston would be a very nice 25th man however he would a crappy platoon option in RF with Brown.

Even if Brown were totally ready, he wouldn't be in the lineup every day. With Raul in LF, Chooch and Polly would be the only RH hitters. We'll need more balance than taht.

I'd rather have Francouer than Hairston. At least he's legitament RF'der. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Good thread header, Jason. I appreciate what Durbin did for us, but I am glad to move on in another direction. We need to have some younger high potential development players in the bullpen mix.

Jeff Francouer and Scott Hairston are not good baseball players. This is a team with World Series aspirations. I expect them to do a little better than "borderline MLB bench player" to fill a hole in RF.

King Myno~ So do I, but I down know if they will. are any of the guys they are targeting (Maggs, Dye, etc.) any better than Hairston, Francouer or anyone else at this point.

A "better" player would have to come via trade, if at all, and I don't know if they could pull one off.

Per MLBtraderumors.com, they even talked about bring Burrell back, but decided against it. There just isn't much available, that would come at a price to fit the Phils budget.

Burrell in a platoon role makes some sense to me. He might still think he's an everyday player, though. He can be when he's hot but, as the Giants found out, when he's cold his swings can air condition a small city.

@Clout: I remember this thread like it was yesterday, except it is all over again.

Tell us oh wise one, who is available that the Phils can get as a safety net for D.Brown?

@Ralph: OK, if you tell me why you changed your screen name.

If Durbin was one of the 8 most important Phillies in 2008, who were the other 7?

Magglio wasn't offered arbitration, so no picks forfeited for him. I'd still like to see the Phils make a run at him if the contract's reasonable.

Ahhh, this the season for MLB Trade Rumors. "_____(team) was interested in ______(player) but changed their mind or couldn't agree on a contract."

I like Durbin...

Happy Thanksgiving, BL'ers! Here's to being thankful for 4 straight division titles/postseason appearances! Hoping everyone has more personal blessings to count tomorrow, too. Enjoy the day!

Happy Turkey day all. I will be thankful if Rube calls LA and requests Torii Hunter.

Clout: I'm not convinced Brown will have a great season.

I'm convinced, however, he's a better option as an everyday RF than Scott Hairston.

You keep saying we need a RH "safety net" without acknowledging there's a difference in options. Carlos Quentin? Absolutely. Scott Hairston or Jeff Francouer? No way in hell.

The Phillies were interested in Vic Darensbourg but he rejected the five year contract they offered citing his insistence on a sixth year.

...which is my way of saying, OP, that MLBTR seems to get away with that surprisingly often. I wonder how many of their "rumors" are cooked up in their own version of editorial meetings.

One thing I am thankful for: the way this site continues to be a serious, but not too serious place to enjoy the company of such a diverse group of my favorite anonymous miscreants.

Late to the thread, but I was wondering the same thing as MG. Lidge certainly did his job, but for next year, where will his velocity be? Seems to me he was throwing his fastballs in the 95 mph range in 2008 when he was so dominant. That speed, the slider, and his control over the pitches were almost unhittable during stretches of the season.

This past late summer and fall, it seemed to me that as often as not, his fastball did not reach 90. The slider/fastball combo worked for a while last season, but the opposing teams do have films, major league hitters do adapt constantly, and a sub 90 fastball for an elite closer doesn't seem like a great ingredient for season long success.

Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Just wanted to pop by & wish everyone at Beerleaguer a Happy Thanksgiving. The Mets still suck, & the Cowboys seem intent on emulating that model -- life is good!

how come teams like rays, yanks, and breweres

were able to offer Hawpe, Vasquez, and Hoffman and have the players decline it at the teams request? (what are players getting out of it? and why couldn't the phils have done it with durbin?)

Jeter is asking for 6 years and $150 million.

Be interesting to see how this ends.

Jack: I agree, especially on Francouer. Hall, Diaz, Andruw, Mags and a few others would be better choices.

clout - where'd you read that? I don't think I believe it.

Hugh: Here ya go, pal:

http://tinyurl.com/28w3udb

Clout: It doesn't end for a while. Jeter and the Yanks are locked in exclusive negotiations, where each can only deal with each other (a bilateral monopoly). These sorts of negotiations are usually contentious and drawn-out, with both sides fighting over every dollar.

Also, I disagree on Bill Hall. The guy is a fine utility player to have around on a team, but there's no way he should ever be an everyday player.

He has a little bit of power, but that's it. He can't hit above .250, and can't get on base above .310.

As the 25th player? Sure. As the guy you're proposing start in RF for a few months until Brown is "ready"? That's a terrible idea.

At least Hall would presumably provide some defensive value, unlike Mags or Jermaine Dye.

Everyone keeps saying we can't just let Brown play everyday because we're built to win now. But if you're built to win now, you don't start someone like Bill Hall as your everyday RF (or Francoeur, or Matt Diaz). Those guys are platoon guys, only.

If you want to make the argument that you should platoon Brown with one of them, ok. But you cannot tell me you're better off with Brown in AAA and one of those guys playing RF every day. At that point, I'd rather just take my chances on Brown up at the big-league level. He has far more talent than any of those guys.

Jack: I don't think anyone is saying that you don't give Brown a chance to win the everyday job. We all hope the kid is ready to step in. But what we are saying is that you should have an insurance policy in place in case Brown isn't ready.

Again, you're certain Brown's going to put up an impressive line if only given the chance to play everyday. Some of us are not that certain. And I'd be perfectly happy with a Hall OPS of .772 in RF if Brown needs a half season in Trip A.

Clout: If your insurance policy pays less than the downside of the risk you're taking, then you wouldn't buy insurance.

I'm not certain Brown is going to put up an impressive line. But I'm certain I'd rather have him playing everyday over garbage vets like Francouer, Bill Hall, or Scott Hairston. At least when Brown plays badly, there's a mitigation of the damage--he's getting the experience he needs to develop into a very good player. When those guys play badly, it's just bad. If I'm going to settle for mediocrity, I'd rather it be mediocrity with the chance of developing into greatness--Brown.

I would LOVE to have a good RF come in to play everyday while Brown develops. None of those guys fit the bill. Until you propose a good player (Quentin, maybe Mags), I'm going to keep calling it a dumb idea.

Jeter is asking for 6 years and $150 million.

That is absurd. Absolutely absurd. That would make the Ryan Howard deal (for those that think it is absurd) a bargain!

Are we really pushing for Bill Hall as a platoon guy?

I mean, really?

And I really hope the Yankeees cave and give Jeter that. Even half of that (years or $$) is ridiculously overpaying.

That said, Bill Hall in a Greg Dobbs type role would make sense.

NEPP: Apparently Clout thinks just about anyone is better than Dom Brown, despite Brown being the consensus #1 prospect in baseball when he was promoted to the show. 62 PAs spread out over 2 months told Clout that Brown was going to be a bust this season.

He probably would rather have Greg Dobbs out there as a "veteran insurance policy."

R.I.P. Tommy Underwood. I remember seeing him pitch in a game in May of '75. It was the first Phillies game I went to without my parents. Apparently he was only 58. That's way too young.


Hey Phans~ I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Just want to chime in.

Listen, The jury's still out on Brown. Also, we relly so know what stats Ben Fran will put put up given the chance to play in a platoon situation. Or anyone else who is brought in to play RF for that matter.

What we do know is that the only 2 star corner outfielders available on the FA market are Werth and Crawford, and neither one of them will be playing in Philly.

If the Brown/Francisco platoon is the route chosen and it fails, we're in trouble.
No matter who is brought in, if anyone, most of us won't like because each has drawbacks.

Maggs: 35, coming off a broken ankle
Dye: 36, did not did not play last year
Hall and Diaz: Both over 30 and utility guys
Francoueur: 26, youngest player available, great arm, average defensively, is not what we need offensively, but could benefit from a change of scenery but I doubt it. I like him because of age.

But we are not gonna be happy no matter what is done. My guess is Brown/Ben Fran will be the choice and the reasons are 1. Brown's potential and they are both cheap.

http://yakyubaka.com/tag/scott-mathieson/

Japan pursuing Mathieson. Not sure how it works but they pay well over there. Be a shame to lose him. Give him more than 2 innings Charlie, he dealt at AAA

DPatrone: The question really shouldn't be a RF platoon. If Brown is ready, he should play every day. If he's not, he should be in AAA and someone else should play every day. So bringing in someone else requires that the person be good enough to play every day. That's the problem as I understand it, and none of the solutions I've seen save Carlos Quentin and maybe Mags are good enough to play every day on a top-level team.

Francisco should be part of a LF platoon with Ibanez.

Jack: Let me see if I can spell this out. You don't want any insurance for Brown. He plays every day period and if he's hitting .185 on July 1, so be it.

A few of us think there should be an insurance policy. If the NL East is at all close and Dom Brown isn't ready he could cost the team a few games. If you had a guy to step in (and by definition it's going to be a guy like Hall or Diaz not some star) to play until he's ready -- and that might only be 1 or 2 months -- it might make the difference between making the playoffs or not.

Although NEPP apparently wasn't paying attention, Hall did post a .772 OPS last season with 18 HR in 382 ABs and the Phils, without Werth, are in need of RH power . Hall has more speed, more glove and more power than Francisco.

Jack~

Forgot about Quentin. I'd love to have him. He's only 28. If brown is ready, I agree, he should play eveyday. But with Raul in LF, That lineup is way too LH. LH relievers ate us up last year.

I also agree that Ben Fran should platoon in LF with Raul. I hadn't thought of it that way. Here's something else to consider. Does RAJ upgrade the bench due to more playing time for Francisco?

I just don't think a big RH bat will be brought. I know I'm cynical, but I'm also a realist. A person who get things done. And I believe that if the Phils and Werth wanted to stay married, it would have hapened by now. But it takes two. Werth wants nore than the Phils want to pay. They have a budget which I clearly understand. But that is the problem with just about anyone they'd want to bring in.

Dodgers signed Garland to 1 year at $5M, which sounds like a good deal. Their rotation next year will be Kershaw-Billingsley-Lilly-Garland-Kuroda.

Not too shabby.

Jeter's agent now denies the NY Daily News report that he's seeking $150M over 6.

So over Thanksgiving dinner, I hear that the salary difference between Davy Lopez and the Phillies was less tha $100,000.00. Then I hear that they are paying Juan Samuel. (sorry for spelling) MORE than Davey Lopez was asking.
Does Little Amaro, have his head up the turkey ?

clout, you always go on and on about looking at 1 year but then you turn around and do the same with Bill Hall.

He was terrible from 07-09 (1316 PAs). He had a 78 OPS+ in that time. Perhaps 2010 was a fluke? Just perhaps?

Casey - ". . . don't ever take sides with anyone against the Family again. Ever."

I have to wonder if things like this interview and where Lopes spoke about Utley having a knee injury contrary to what RAJ said on DSL didn't play a much bigger factor in why Lopes was shown the door.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11228

Per MLBTraderumors.com, Phils interested in Dennys Reyes. It's shows exactly what I've been talking about the entire off-season. They'll bring in nothing but garbage. Only playera that will play for for what they're willing to pay.

Danys Baez and Dennys Reyes.

Is it too late for a second season of The Pen.

NEPP: Since you can't tell the difference between one year of UZR and one year of OPS, there really is no hope for you.

NY Times now reports that Jeter is asking $92 million over four years.

Clout: Garland turned down more money from the Padres to sign that deal with the Dodgers, which you don't see too often.

****NEPP: Since you can't tell the difference between one year of UZR and one year of OPS, there really is no hope for you.****

One year of any type of performance is flukish. If you think Hall is likely to reproduce his 2010 campaign given his 3 years before that, then you're delusional. Low risk 25th man signing is fine, expecting him to platoon in RF is crazy talk.

The argument is over whether Bill Hall's one great year last year was a fluke or repeatable, and that year was a whopping 103 OPS+ (in only 382 PAs, almost half of which came against lefties)?

Yeah, that right there is a sign that he shouldn't be our everyday RF.

NEPP: Clout doesn't want Hall as a platoon guy in RF. He wants him to be our EVERY DAY starter out there. Insane, isn't it?

Hall is a nice versatile 25th man type but he is destroyed by LHP and he Ks a ton. I would take the bet of Francisco being a better RH option next year over Hall. And he's versatile because he can play several positions decently...he's not really great with the glove at any of them (though he's still better than Francisco in the outfield).


And that's not a compliment of Francisco.

To clarify, he was killed by LHP in 2010...for his career he's a bit better against them. Though, he basically sucked against them for 3 out of the last 4 years (mainly because he just sucked period.)


"Phils interested in Dennys Reyes"

NO NO NO! The Phillies should not sign anyone who has a strange plural first name! No more Dannys, Dennys, Bennys, Bills, or Petes!!

I very much agree with an earlier post. If I were Rube, I wouldn’t move on a trade or a free agent signing until I saw the non-tender list. There might be some surprising names that are suddenly very much available. If it were up to me, Ben Fran would be on that list as well.

Dennys Reyes numbers from 2006-2010:

2006: 5-0, .89 ERA, 50.2 IP, 507 ERA+, 6.2 H/9, 8.7 K/9

2007: 2-1, 3.99 ERA, 29.1 IP, 109 ERA+, 10.4 H/9, 6.4 K/9

2008: 3-0, 2.33 ERA, 46.1 IP, 181 ERA+, 7.8 H/9, 7.6 K/9

2009: 0-2, 3.29 ERA, 41 IP, 125 ERA+, 7.7 H/9, 7.2 K/9

2010: 3-1, 3.55 ERA, 38 IP, 111 ERA+, 8.1 H/9, 5.9 K/9

Also in his career his home runs per 9 is 0.8

And DPatrone considers this "garbage." I'd say that is a pretty good guy to bring in to be your second lefty behind Bastardo.

Also- nice to see the clout/Jack pissing match continues.

TTI: I don't know, the decline in K rate is pretty bad news for a relief pitcher. That's the exact reason I was concerned about Baez when they signed him last year.

Jack: His K/9 was up in 2008 and 2009 from where it was in 2007. The drop to this year isn't quite as troubling to me since Reyes has been pretty good in his career at getting ground ball outs. Ideally, you don't want to see the K/9 trending down though.

The larger point though is- we don't even know yet what type of contract Reyes would be getting. DPatrone is just reacting to the rumor because Reyes is not one of the name guys on the market. I can't envision him getting a huge deal, probably 1-2 million dollars for the season with some incentives. I think that is a solid pick-up and a good guy to have has your second option.

You also conveniently left out that he has a 4.1 BB/9 rate over those same seasons (cumulatively).

Still, yeah, you're right. If it's a 1-year deal for $1 mill, I suppose I'm fine with it, as long as Rube understands the concept of sunk costs and cuts him ASAP if he sucks and there's a better option available.

Jack: I wouldn't say conveniently left it out. It just fluctuated wildly in those 5 seasons. And really, a 4.1 BB/9 ratio would be a breath of fresh air after Romero.

TTI~ I'm reacting the way I do because he's garbage. Cheap garbage, and 33. If this is what they're going to bring in, I'd rahter tham take a shot filling the spot with someone internally if they could.

You rip me in another post, but you can't see what the Phils are doing here. No Scott Downs because they don't want to give up a pick. No decent RH bat and no other decent LH reliever because of money. I'm tired of explaining this. He can't pull off a trade and the payroll is probably not going to be expanded.

DPatrone: Again you are criticizing because he hasn't done anything yet.

Also, on Downs. As much as I like the guy he is 34, costs a pick, and will cost more than Reyes (probably considerably so. Downs is coming off a year where he made 4 million dollars. Reyes 2 million. Why not spend a little less on a guy at one spot so you can spend a little more at another?

But I know he's not moving at the pace you set so it's a terrible move. How about you give us a schedule of events as to when you want guys signed?

I wholeheartedly agree with the decision to not sign Scott Downs, because of the likelihood over overpaying in years and dollars PLUS giving up a 1st-round draft pick.

TTI~ My biggest thing is I'd like know who'll play RF. That to me is what they need to get done soon. And, If they're going to eyes 2 million, why not retain Durbin?

I meant pay Reyes 2 million, Sorry.

Phils are probably considering Reyes because:

- He has a long and proven track record of getting left-handed bats out
- Generally keeps the ball on the group although he has given up more FBs the past few years
- He isn't a type A or B free agent
- He likely has a cheaper price tag than other LHP relievers free agents including Fuentes, Takahashi, and Feliciano. Also through Downs in there.

Its previous obvious the Phils want an experienced lefty reliever out of the pen and rightly so. Bastardo is unproven, has had health issues the past 2 years, and there is little minor league depth among lefty relievers even with the Meyer signing. Basically going to take the money they had allocated to Durbin and use it to sign a proven veteran LHP reliever.

Imagine the Phils are probably kicking the tires on guys like Mahay and Ohman too. If they get out-priced (which I don't think they will because there is a glut of LHP relievers on the market), they might considering bringing back Romero on a veteran league minimum type deal or even a minor league deal with a guaranteed salary if he makes the opening day roster.

My bet is that Buster Olney is wrong about the Benoit signing really inflating the price for relievers. Detroit had money to spend this offseason and desperately needed bullpen help with Zumaya out.

My bet is that there will be a few guys who make out because there is a general lack of 'closers' in this market (Soriano and Francisco and maybe others like Putz and Rauch) but that teams are going to be reluctant to sign relievers especially type A guys like Balfour, Downs, Frasor, Guerrier, etc who were offered arbitration or spend big money on veteran relievers like Mota.

Patrone - Simple. Durbin is a righty. I do agree though that Reyes is a less than a thrilling candidate.

He struggled most of the season last year and had trouble throwing his slider for strikes all season. By the end of the season (Aug/Sept), he was a garbage-time reliever used by LaRussa when the Cards were taking a beating.

Cards supposedly have no interest in bringing Reyes back and will utilize Miller as their primary LHP reliever next year.

Reyes likely will get a guaranteed MLB deal. He likely has a fairly cheap price tag though (my bet is the neighborhood of 1 yr/$1M). Probably why Amaro is interested.

Likely that for a change, Amaro stews for a while on the lefty reliever because he doesn't have alot of money to spend and there are likely to be some options on the table well into January.

Yo, new thread

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG