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Saturday, November 06, 2010

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By all means, sign Magglio and/or trade for Rowand...because if there was one thing the oldest team in the majors was missing, it was a few more old, declining baseball players to really get us over the hump.

In defense of old farts, it worked for the bottom of the Giants lineup.

The age thing is overblown, and I should know.

There's a reason this is called the off season. I assume you'll post it if something of actual importance is brewing.

I won't sue. I'll just visit your website less often. I'm sure your sponsors will be thrilled.

The "get younger" theme is easy to salute in the abstract. By all means, I favor new blood in the right person and position. The fact is that good young, ready to contribute players are more difficult to acquire and, are not terribly plentiful in the Phils' system. If the team wants to win NOW, it still must be active in the market for veterans for options in filling holes for next year. If you really want to field a team of young up-and-comers, you have to move your good, older players (Utley, Ruiz, etc.). That will happen right around the time the team finishes in 3d place and right after Amaro gets sh!tcanned.

Never heard of Olivo but, from Weitzel's scouting report the guy sounds like a 3B or LF, not a shortstop.

I'm in favor of good players, young or old.

This was a good waiver claim. If Rivero starts to hit like his frame suggests, then he could be a decent bench player someday.

Also, I don't like the idea of Rowand and/or Maggie. Both are injury prone, and being brutally honest the Phils have enough of that. Polly, Vic, J-Roll, and Utley are a good bet to miss time due to injury every year, along with possibly Chooch because of his position and aging. Young bodies are needed.

Donald's lack of lateral range is why he cannot be an everyday SS in MLB so if Rivero's lateral range is even worse, clearly his future is not at SS.

The reports I've seen on Rivero say his glove plays best at 3B. His arm is strong, but the reason the Indians didn't protect him is that both his bat and his glove went backwards this season as he repeated Double A.

His body, 6-3, 220, also seems more suited to 3B. Of course, he'll have to hit and hit with power to make it there and he's showing little signs of that.

After cutting his errors in half 2008-09, he doubled them this season (to 28). And his offense was down across the board, and strikeouts were up.

It will be interesting to see if he can make BA's Top 30 prospects list in the Phils system.

BTW, I like JW's more pugnacious attitude toward some of the dimmer bulbs on here.

Ordonez's biggest problem is his injury liability. He has significant experience in right field, his primary position, and as a platoon player this would mitigate him wearing down in the stretch.

This guy is a .300 hitter with an onbase percentage of .375 to .380, in a neutral park for a hitters he hits 20-25HR. You put him in Citizens Bank and he's going to see a power boost. He's also a right handed bat.

He's not a very good defender, so the defense will take a hit. And the key is to get him to a limited deal, 1 or 2 years, while Brown continues to develop. If they can sign him to 7-7.5 million a year, I say go for it. Ordonez would see a boost to his numbers just by hitting behind Ryan Howard, and you spell him against righties with Brown.

He's definitely tall enough to play third base.

Savery should not be protected on the 40-man, but my guess is the Phillies are not willing to admit the 1st-round mistake and will hold on to him for another year.

Reports are that Adrian Gonzalez's people are setting their first number in contract talks at about 22 million a year. Interesting number. Not sure which way that number fluctuates. Being that he is on the south side of 30 I think that number might go up a little (to about 23 or so) by the time he signs.

Its' intriguing because he is clearly better than Howard defensively, but he is worse offensively in quite a few ways.

Taking their 162 game averages over their careers you see these numbers:

Gonzalez- .284/.368/.507/.875 with a 137 OPS+ and 32 home runs and 99 RBI's.

Howard- .279/.372/.572/.944 with a 140 OPS+ and 47 home runs and 138 RBI's.

I know some will point to the fact that Howard's numbers went down this season (ignoring that he missed 2 weeks on the DL and then probably another 2 weeks until he really was 100% again) but Gonzalez's trended downward a little bit as well this year.

I'd rather we go with Magglio than waste money on the overrated and streaky Werth. I don't deny the man's raw power but let's face it, he had a horrible time driving in runners in '10, had horrific slumps, and wasn't exactly the defensive and base running star he was years before (can't hurt yourself when chasing a huge contract I guess). Personally, when I heard he turned down 4 years/$66 million, I heard all I needed to hear. Time to look elsewhere. Magglio could bounce back strong protecting Ryan Howard.

I do wish we had been able to hold on to Villar in the Oswalt deal, because as JW mentions, SS is a pretty thin position for the Phils.

Although I heard Freddy Galvis is planning on putting on 30 pounds of muscle this offseason and is going to hit 15 HRs...

TTI: There's also the issue of home ballparks (which I know OPS+ accounts for, but I don't think does full justice).

Here's their career road numbers:

Gonzo: .303/.376/.568
Howard: .279/.367/.569

So they are pretty similar offensive players for their careers once you adjust for home ballpark, and as you note, Gonzo is much better defensively and 2 and a half years younger.

Also, their last 3 years look like this:

Gonzo: .285/.387/.523 with a 151 OPS+
Howard:.265/.349/.557 with a 132 OPS+

This was an organizational filler pick and not much more.

I still can't believe that Werth thinks he honestly can outdo Holliday's 7 year/$120 deal.

Yeah Holliday is a defensive liability who can only play LF nor does he have the speed Werth has. He was also 3 years younger and a better overall offensive player.

My bet is that any team that would give Werth even a 6 yr/$100M would really regret the latter half of the contract.

Jack: Agreed. I tried to make it known that I wasn't making a huge deal out of the numbers. Just presenting them as they were and pointing out where one guy was stronger than the other. I know RBI is a vilified stat anymore but it still has some value when it is looked at. It is the product of the team around someone but for at least half this season Gonzalez had a strong (at the very least stronger) line-up around him for quite some time. His numbers dropped in the second half. Average dropped 10 points, his OBP dropped 11, his slugging almost 50 and his OPS almost 60 points. And he had 45 RBI's. So with a stronger line-up around him- his numbers declined. With Howard- his average dropped considerably but his OBP went up slightly and his OPS stayed relatively the same. He knocked in 43 runs but again- missed 2 weeks, and then wasn't himself for a week or two after that. In 160 games Gonzalez had 101 RBI's. In 143 Howard had 108. It seems like in tangible production Howard brings more to the table.
With that being said- I'm not sure how that trend goes from here.

Also Jack- remember the other week when you were criticizing me for saying that the Raul-Werth comment by Amaro was selling the move to the public- and you said I was being "condescending." Read Scotch Man's post above.

I am a huge fan of this move. The guy will probably never be more than some dude. But he might actually be someone who can be called up for a few weeks and fill in reasonably well. Plays both left side positions, can hit a little, knows the strike zone a bit. For those for whom this important, he apparently bunts okay. He's the sort of guy Rube should have been accumulating last year at this time instead of spending on Castro.

MG - While I agree that a team signing Werth for those numbers would probably regret the move later, the comparison with Holliday, from a statistical viewpoint, looks to be in Werth's favor.

The last three years, Holliday's WAR (total) has been 2.2, 2.8, 5.4. Werth's has been 4.2, 3.2, 5.2. Werth will get his payday somewhere.

Rivero is an upgrade over Bocock.

Andy - Holliday's WAR is 7.1, 5.7, 5.6, 5.9 and his offensive numbers are superior every year to Werth.

Nevermind about Werth being 3 years older either. Werth was born on 5/20/79. Holliday was born on 1/15/80.

clout - I guess just because Babock is so horrendous offensively. Rivero just drives me as a guy they look a $50k stab because system is so devoid of middle utility infielders. Likely would have had to pick up a veteran minor league FA to fill out the SS position at T-AAA.

From Hardball Times:

"The spread between the best and worst teams in baseball was 40 games. The Phillies went 97 and 65 and the Keystone State’s other team went 57 and 105. That is the equivalent of the best NBA team going 49-33 and the worst going 29-53. In the NFL, the equivalents would be (rounding off of course) 10-6 and 6-10. Of course that is not how things panned out in those two leagues because it would never be that way. The Cleveland Cavaliers went 61-21 and the historically bad New Jersey Nets went 12-70. Scaled out to a 162 game schedule, the Nets would have ended up at 24-138. The NFL’s Indianapolis/St Louis spread was 14-2 and 1-15. It is pretty easy to scale those up to 162 games and obviously records would be set.

Every year I talk about this subject and point out that despite the fact that teams routinely finish 20 to 30 games out of the playoffs, the difference in real terms between the best team and worst teams in baseball is much less than in basketball, or especially football, which ironically has the phrase “any given Sunday” attached to it even though the chances of the worst teams beating the best team in even one out of 10 Sundays is remote.

Well, the Pirates beat the Phillies in four of the six games the teams played this season—even taking three of four from the Phillies in early July—in a week where they also won a series on the road against the uncompetitive, but still presentable, Cubs. They beat Halladay on the road and Hamels at home. Any given Tuesday, any baseball team can beat any other baseball team, even if that team has the year’s likely Cy Young winner starting the game."

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2010-tht-awards-hitting/

MG: I don't how this will print up but it's from Holliday's B-Ref page. I need you to highlight where those numbers you sited appear.

2008 28 COL NL 623 29 9 1 0 -1 -7 16 47 4.8 48 4.8 0.0
2009 29 OAK AL 400 14 1 1 0 -2 -5 13 22 2.2 24 2.4 -0.2
2009 29 STL NL 270 23 -1 1 0 0 -3 7 27 2.8 27 2.8 0.0
2010 30 STL NL 675 43 -1 0 0 1 -8 19 55 5.5 54 5.4 0.1

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1873&position=

It is strange. The WAR numbers from FanGraphs are completely different from Baseball Reference.

MLB trade rumors says Jamie Moyer left a game after two innings in the Dominican Winter League. It's a reinjury to his elbow. May never pitch again.

That's a shame about moyer, I bet he'd have a great career as a pitching coach.

Sorry to hear about Young Jamie.

Moyer will start pitching with his right arm and come back that way.

MG: Fangraphs and B-Ref use different measures for the defensive inputs, which is why the total numbers come out different for WAR.

At some point, a consensus will emerge on which is superior, and that will become the standard. Personally, I go with Fangraphs, but you do have to keep in mind that, like any metric, it depends on its inputs, and if you change the inputs, you get a different output.

Jack - Figured as much but thanks for the info. It is crazy how wide the differences are though. I would be curious to see the variation differences from the two sources.

One of the reasons why I don't put the religious fervor in WAR that other sites do (especially GoodPhight). It's a nice 'rule of thumb' stat to compare players but still a somewhat problematic one.

Andy/MG- baseball reference and fangraphs have two separate WAR stats, with their own calculations. It's one of the main detractions for WAR, that there isn't any actual standard for determining the stat. I'm frankly a little surprised you didn't know that.

And I really don't care what WAR says, Werth > Holliday.

That's sad news for Jamie Moyer. I agree, he would be an excellent pitching coach, or it would seem that he would. Good guy. I hope the Phillies do a little ceremony of sorts inn his honor. (And I'm kicking myself for never going to his Phillies-as-waiters fundraiser.)

From that bit at mlbtraderumors.com:

"If the injury does derail Moyer's comeback for good, it would be an unfortunate end to an incredibly long and impressive career. The lefty has won 267 games and pitched more than 4000 innings for seven teams over the course of the quarter-century he has spent in the bigs."

inn = in

GBrettfan: If this is indeed the end for Jamie, I fully expect the Phils to have a "Jamie Moyer Day" next season.

Yo, next thread

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