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Monday, November 15, 2010

Comments

I like this move. Could be interesting where it grows in the future.

Also, it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not MLB's Hall of Fame. Though that's where the players come from, the Hall is independent of MLB. Just nit-picking of course. :)

Hearing Sandberg's name makes me relive those sad sack late 80's and early 90's teams. . . now I'm sad.

In other news, 2 years for Contreras? I guess it fits Amaro's MO, but still. . . who else is going to give him 2 years?
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Report_Phillies_close_to_deal_with_Contreras.html

Maybe Harold Garcia will be moving up to the Ironpigs and Sandberg.

In regards to MG's comment on the previous thread about how awful the decision was to extend Moyer 2 years, I'm not sure I agree.

Moyer was paid $6.5M per year and delivered 274 IP, 21-19, 4.89, which is about average for a 4th starter. How many veteran (post-free agency) 4th starters are paid $6.5M?

Re: Moyer. I was disappointed with the 2 year deal, but in retrospect, it worked out ok. Not great, but good enough.

Yeah, despite being Washed Up™, I'm not sure the Moyer deal ended up being that bad. Had he stayed healthy, he likely would have well exceeded the value of the contract.

However... that doesn't mean we should be throwing out multi-year deals to just any 48 year old pitcher!

I'd much prefer Contreras for 1 year. I'm just not sure what the market for him is out there.

Looking at Sandberg's stats, impressive. I had thought circa 2007/2008 that Utley was probably headed in the same direction. Still hoping, but after last year and a two year decline, it may be more of a hope than a real likelihood.

BedBeard: My thoughts exactly.

FWIW, the Phils 4th starter next season will be paid $8.5M or $9M depending on whether he pitches more than 150 IP.

hypothetical:

Whats riskier, not having Contreras in 2011 or having him on payroll in 2012?

As a big truck fan, I think its not having him in 2011.

Obviously I would prefer a 1 year, but if it means there is a good chance he goes elsewhere, second year doesnt bother as me as much.

Clout - Moyer got paid $14.5M ($6.5M last year and $8M this year). Basically $7.25M over 2 years.

As a starter, he gave them 255 IP ovre 46 starts with an ERA of 5.11 as a starter.

It wasn't a terrible deal but Moyer was a below-average starter the last 2 years and didn't give the Phils close to a full-season as a starter either year (1st year due to ineffectivness and 2nd year due to injury).

clout - What to make a bet that Blanton delievers an ERA that is notably better than 5?

If the 3rd year in the Contreras rumored deal is a team option, i'm ok with it. 2.5mil per is not a lot of money. Would I prefer a 1 year deal with a team option? Sure.

BB - 3rd team option is a big plus. Contreras deal isn't that bad. I just am pretty dubious he is healthy and effective all next year.

Hiring Sandberg to manage our perennially destitute AAA franchise is certainly consistent with employing the "wrong" brother to play baseball.

After glancing at recent threads - Orr, Frenchy, Bonine - I for one can't wait until 2011...

I wonder how much of that $5 million is incentives and how much is guaranteed.

Risky to sign middle relief to multi-year deals.

MG: Not according to Cot's contracts. His contract for 2009 was $6.5M plus a $500,000 performance bonus (which I missed initially). His contract for 2010 was $6.5M and he failed to meet any performance bonuses.

Also, please cite stats that show Moyer was worse than the league average 4th starter.

Also, MG, it's dishonest to cook the books by ignoring his total ERA and singling out his strater-only ERA. He's done both starting and relief.

In any event, my point isn't that Moyer had a couple of great years. It's that the Phillies didn't get burned on thyis contract as remotely as you claim they did.

MLBTR is specualting that Ludwick will be non-tendered by the Padres. Amaro better be on that.

clout - Cot's and just aobut every source has his base at $8M this year because of the inning incentive he hit in '09 that escalted his base in '10.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tzDN-ZPXgwWx-DUvUTqbsmw&output=html

As for the mythical 'average 4th starter' let's instead take the average NL starter ERa the past 2 years:

2009 - 4.32 ERA (Moyer was 5.34)
2010 - 4.07 ERA (Moyer was 4.84)

Both years, Moyer was quite below the average ERA and frankly he stunk as a starter in 2009.

In 2009, there were only 4 starters in the NL who threw at least 120 IP who had a worse ERA as a starter (L. Hernandez, Wellenmeyer, Moehler, Parra). Moyer ranked 52rd out of 57 pitchers.

Moyer was better in 2010 but not by much. His 4.84 ERA as a starter ranked 60th out of 76 pitchers.

Maybe in 'Cloutland' Moyer gave the Phils a good performance the past 2 years as a starter but the other benchmark comparisons don't indicate that.


Moyer was ranked 60th out of 76 pitchers in the NL last year who threw at 100 IP.

Last thing about Moyer:

Didn't say his contract 'buried the Phils.' They just didnt get good value for it and the 2nd year was a head-scrathcer considering that every veteran FA pitcher that offseason got a 1-yr deal except Burnett, Sabathia, Kawakami, and O. Perez.

Cabrera, Colon, Garland, Glavine, Hampton, Johnson, Looper, Pavano, Penny, Petitte, H. Ramirez, Redding, Smoltz, and Wolf all got 1-year deals only. Moyer was the only FA who got 2 years.

Totally unsubstantiated idea here.

I wonder if the Phillies brought Ryno in with the promise of being given the major league job when Charlie is done. I can't see Charlie managing this team much past 2012 or 2013. By that time you are going to see some substantial turnover with the team so they might just completely overhaul at that point.

Sandberg was a pretty hot name in the managerial field this season and many felt he was going to get the Cubs job before being turned away. I think once that happened he felt he wasn't going to be given a chance there.

Like I said- no idea what really happened but it's just an idea I had about the signing. If nothing else, Harold Garcia will have a really great teacher once he gets to Lehigh Valley.

The Contreras signing is fine. You knew the Phillies were going to try and stock veteran arms there with some young guys having spots. At this point we know Madson, Lidge, Baez, and Contreras are going to be there. The belief was that if Contreras kept up his fine relief work he was probably going to be in line for a 2 year deal. Also, the idea of cheaper is funny. Who was going to sign at a cheaper rate and be better than Contreras was this past season?

TTI - Interesting take on Sandberg. My bet is that the Phils will come to an extension with Cholly this offseason for another 2 yrs in the $3M range. After that, he will retire since he will 69 by 2013.

If the Phils don't agree to an extension with Cholly this offseason, it is probably likely because Cholly doesn't want it and not the Phils. Makes the odds he retires after the 2011 season pretty high for several reasons (contract, age, turnover in the team).

Cholly could make some really nice bank over the next 2 years if he would continue to manage but he could likely go out on a high note still after '11 without going through any real downturn.

MG: Yeah it was just a thought. I tend to be with you that Charlie signs a two year extension after this season and rides through the end of 2013 seeing this core through to the end. Come 2014 the only person under contract at this point is Howard with Halladay having an option.

I could see the Phillies just changing the entire staff at that point and trying to restart with a new manager that can grow with either young guys or a free agent built team.

Maybe i'm wrong, but Sandberg was the hot name among Cubs fans for the Cubs job, but I don't remember him being talked about much else. FWIW, my bro-in-law is a Cub fan through and through, and he wasn't even sure if Sandberg was the right man for the job.

wwith Contreras now under contract will Rube risk offering Arbitration to Durbin to get the comp pick? Remember Chad is a Type B.

NEPP - Doubt it. They would probably be the hook for something in the ballpark of $3M or so. That's money they have allocated to OF and additional bullpen help.

sorry, you lost me at "Sandberg, 51." Wow! time flies

NEPP~ Contreras officially signed, or just close to a deal??

BB: Sandberg was discussed for a few open jobs this off-season. There were rumblings that teams were interested but they all assumed he was going to get the Cubs gig.

Perhaps some teams thought he wasn't ready for the main job yet (and he may not be) but I'd have taken a chance on him rather than re-hash a guy like Clint Hurdle or Freddi Gonzalez.

Question... what GM pulled of the Sandberg to the cubs for Ivan???

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