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Saturday, November 27, 2010


Phils are probably considering Reyes because:

- He has a long and proven track record of getting left-handed bats out
- Generally keeps the ball on the group although he has given up more FBs the past few years
- He isn't a type A or B free agent
- He likely has a cheaper price tag than other LHP relievers free agents including Fuentes, Takahashi, and Feliciano. Also through Downs in there.

Its previous obvious the Phils want an experienced lefty reliever out of the pen and rightly so. Bastardo is unproven, has had health issues the past 2 years, and there is little minor league depth among lefty relievers even with the Meyer signing. Basically going to take the money they had allocated to Durbin and use it to sign a proven veteran LHP reliever.

Imagine the Phils are probably kicking the tires on guys like Mahay and Ohman too. If they get out-priced (which I don't think they will because there is a glut of LHP relievers on the market), they might considering bringing back Romero on a veteran league minimum type deal or even a minor league deal with a guaranteed salary if he makes the opening day roster.

My bet is that Buster Olney is wrong about the Benoit signing really inflating the price for relievers. Detroit had money to spend this offseason and desperately needed bullpen help with Zumaya out.

My bet is that there will be a few guys who make out because there is a general lack of 'closers' in this market (Soriano and Francisco and maybe others like Putz and Rauch) but that teams are going to be reluctant to sign relievers especially type A guys like Balfour, Downs, Frasor, Guerrier, etc who were offered arbitration or spend big money on veteran relievers like Mota.

My bet is that this is one of the rare occasions where Amaro sits for quite a while on a need he wants to fill because there are likely going to be a bunch of options still on the table into late January.

"Patrone - Simple. Durbin is a righty. I do agree though that Reyes is a less than a thrilling candidate."

From the last thread:
MG~ That's my point. He's not thrilling at all. And LH hit .307 against him last year?

TTI~ This isn't garbage to you?

Look phans~ I UNDERSTAND RAJ HAS A BUDGET. But you cannot be penny-wise and dollor-folish. If you want the top talent, you have to be prepared to pay. Feliciano is condsidering accepting arb, so cross him off then.

If this is the type of player he;s gonna bring in, then we should not expect any kind of decent RH bat which is also a deparate need.

RAJ is a smart educated man. He makes a lot of good moves, but he also makes a lot of stupid ones (see player contracts). Reyes qualifies as stupid.

DPatrone: I like that you ignore all the stats from last thread and focus on the one you want to prove your point.

You are a complete bubblehead- and that is me being nice.

you seem to think that we should just be signing guys regardless of teh price tag. Plus you criticize them possibly signing Reyes because he is 33, yet advocate signing Downs despite him being 34, costing more money, and a pick. It's like you get so tunnel visioned because Amaro doesn't move at your pace that you forget any semblance of rationale thought. Relievers are a fickle bunch. Their numbers can heavily fluctuate from season to season.

The Phillies need a guy to be a second lefty option because they are clearly going to look at Bastardo as their top lefty option. That means you are looking for a guy at a decent price. Reyes is at that price, and can be expected to do reasonably well.

And the RH bat option is a strawman argument in this case because that's not what we are discussing.

TTI~ .317 against LH pitching last year. You forgot that stat. And I'm the bubblehead? I advocate Downs because he is a better pitcher, at least he's regarded to be. I understand his age and the pick. I also understand letting Romero go. What I don't understand is 2 years for Baez and a re-up for 2 years for Contreras at his age.

I know they need a 2nd lefty, but get one who has a beeter track record than Reyes. Because is Bastardo falters, you'll need anohter one. The shouldn't waste money on someone who might work.

You make a statement that Reyes can be expected to do reasonably well. You can't assume that. Past history is past.

My whole entire point, that you seem to be missing, is that they are possibly signing only people who can be had cheaply and who don't cost a pick. I'm not saying they are cheap. I'm saying that they won't go after the top guys available. You can't buy a $70k auto for 30k.

Every time has interest in lots of guys, but what the interest comes down to, above need is dollars. We go through this every year, and every year we say the same things about somebody they signed.

As far as RF goes, they will use the same premise there. Whhether we are discussing the point or not is moot at this point. I am just expressing my opinion on how I think they will go about doing things.

Reliever stats are wildly erratic because they have so few IP. Reyes only pitched 38 innings. Plus he was hurt.

He's a classic LOOGY and there's a bunch of guys like him available. I think it's right for Rube to kick the tires on these guys. It's a total crapshoot to predict what kind of year they're going to have, which is why they change teams all the time.

If not Reyes, someone just like him will be filling the LOOGY role next season.

DPatrone: Lefties versus Reyes last year hit .307. In 2009 they hit .207. In 2008 it was .202. In 2007 it was .273.

That tells me that in the past 4 years he has been really good against lefties 2 years. The other two years the lefties had some success against him.

For probably 1-1.5 I'll take a chance on him and have no problem with Amaro doing the same.

Of course, I don't have some stupid artificial time table in my head in which Amaro has to do moves. Because you do I can understand how you would act irrationally to Amaro trying to bring in a SECOND lefty for the pen. The problem with bullpen guys is there is no real guarantee with them. Call me crazy but I'd rather spend 1 million than 4 million+ on a guy who may or may not turn out well for us. Also, I'd rather not spend a ton of money on a guy who is our second left-handed option out of the pen that gets more play if our other lefty option fails.

Rumors of an offer to Jayson Werth???

I'm not as deeply into stats as some of you guys are, but this guy does not excite me even a little bit.

Let's sign a player or two in their 20's for a change.

DPatrone - You have good reasons to not be optimistic about Reyes though. He was a guy who had trouble throwing his slider almost all year for a strike with any kind of consistency and stunk for most of the season even before heading on the DL in August. Cards expressed no interest in bringing him back which always raises a slight red flag in the back of my mind.

I also wonder just about his overall health a bit too. Reyes' conditioning is pretty lacking. You have to wonder how his arm holds up if you are asking him to give you 65-70 appearances. He has lots of miles on that arm especially recently. Wonder how much tread is left.

Clout is right though that their are a handful of veteran LOOGYs who change teams frequently. Reyes is one of those guys this offseason along with the likes of Mahay, Ohman, and Choate.

TTI - Why do you think Bastardo will automatically be the primary lefty out of the pen to start the year? If the Phils get a veteran LOOGY that has a good spring, I bet that guy is Cholly's choice in the early going.

Absolutely don't think the Phils are going to get one of the 'first-tier' lefty relievers which includes Downs, Fuentes, Takahashi, and maybe Feliciano (although you can argue him).

TTI~ I agree, I rather spend 1 than 4 million on a LOOGY. As far as what you call a "stupid" timetable (and I really don't have a problem with Amaro taking his time so long as he makes a good choice), if there is a player out there that you want, go get him before someone else does. That's what the Braves did with Uggla.

You must understand settling for what's left is not the proper thing to do. Yes, you have to kick the tires on a lot of guys, but you still have to make the right choice. If you don't, it'll haunt you.

When the choice is a tough on, albeit due to money or whateven, go with the most-proven guy.

Look at it this way. Baez was a closer once, and the the uncertainty with Lidge last year, I can uderstand why a gamble was taken on him last year. But for 2 years? Contreras had a very nice year. But a 2-year deal for him?

This is where Rube is getting hurt. He's ham-stringing himself. So he's has to be careful. I/we just wouldn't like it if he signed guys who left us scratching our heads asking why?

He might be too young.

I am sure there is a 40 year old out there we can sign instead to a 2 year contract.

I would consider Feliciano a 1st tier LOOGY. He's very very tough against LHBs.

I would consider Feliciano a 1st tier LOOGY. He's very very tough against LHBs.

Penny-wise and dollar-foolish tells the story about RAJ. I get very frustrated with the way he goes about building his roster. On the one hand, he shells out millions for marquee starters and then on the other hand, he throws crumbs at the middle reliever contingent. I know he has budget constraints, but there are times during the long campaign that the starters falter before they can turn the ball over to Contreras/Madson/Lidge. Moreover, the reliable threesome cannot be used on an every-day basis. There needs to be a second platoon, particularly as make-up games become double-headers late in the season.

The Phillies achilles' heel during this remarkable run has been and continues to be middle relief. I've observed that some teams load up on young fireballers rather than the usual worn-out suspects (a la the Phillies) to stock their middle relief component.

Simply put, I wish that Amaro would look inward at his farm system and use a combination of one or two up-and-comers and a top-tier free agent or two to make up the team's middle relief contingent. It's a new paradigm for him and this team, but I'm tired of seeing washed-up hacks being signed to crippling multi-year contracts. Dannys Baez anyone? Anyone really surprised that he bombed out this past season? Was there not anything in his fairly recent body of work that would indicate otherwise?

We don't need one more "Dannys" to mess up the works!!!

Jesus, his head barely fits on my screen.

MG: Just a hunch that Bastardo is going to be the guy. I think Charlie likes him quite a bit and the only stumbling block will be his command. But with his ability to miss bats I bet he's the first guy you see as a lefty.

"Top-tier" guys are not middle relievers. Middle relievers are pitchers who have failed as starters, late-inning relievers, or closers. Spending big money on any middle reliever is just about the biggest waste of money in MLB.

Aside from a few late-inning guys, bullpens are almost a complete crapshoot from year to year due to fluctuations in sample size, actual performance, and situational performance.

MaineRob- the reason Amaro "throws crumbs" at the middle-reliever contingent is because as clout said, you never know what you're going to get from them from year to year. It's not wise to throw a large sum of money at a middle-relief BP arm because season to season they are unknown commodities. Baez fits this description, and he was a big mistake.

I don't know why you'd use throwing multi-million dollar contracts at marquee starters in your argument, because he's spending money for known commodities that will carry this team in the coming years (and certainly did this year). Using money to lock up proven starting pitching is a smart investment. Throwing money towards middle relief, when most middle-relievers are a roll of the dice, is foolish. It's why the Baez signing was stupid and the Contreras deal might be something he ends up regretting.

TTI - I actually like Bastardo too given what the Phils are likely to bring in to fill the veteran LOOGY role. Less concerned though about Bastardo's command than his ability to stay healthy and Cholly's willingness to stick with him if he goes through a rough patch.

Takahashi and Fuentes both can get out RHBs, too; and they're both available. So let's get Reyes.

He's cheap.

Not sure why some people are acting like the end of the world is upon us because some Fox reporter says a major league source says the Phils are pursuing Reyes. They've admitted to contacting 40 free agents, if I'm not mistaken. Did people not think that at least some of them weren't of the ilk of Reyes? He hasn't signed here yet and if he does he's a middle reliever who has had moderate ain't doomsday. If it isn't Reyes it will be someone similar in the second lefty role, it's realistic that they're not going to surrender a pick or pay top dollar.

Ask Omar how good an idea it is to spend top dollar on the pen and put all your financial eggs in one basket. I'm still waiting for the Mets to dominate us with Putz and K-Rod.

Going value village with veterans in the pen is a smart move. I'd rather see $10 million spread out over 4 - 6 veterans in the pen and/or minor league reclamation projects. There's a pretty good chance that at least one or two of them are going to step up and make the whole package worth the money.

The Contreras extension also serves as a benchmark for future signings to work towards; sign a one year deal, perform up to expectations in the pen, earn a multi-year extension.

Nothing to complain about whatsoever. Smart business by Amaro.

MaineRob: I agree that young fireballsers are a great idea for middle relief. The Braves' Craig Kimbrell and Mike Dunn come to mind. My question to you is: Who are the 2 young fireballers in the Phils system who can step in this coming season and do the job in middle relief?

This dude is notorious for showing up all out of shape and working his way into form during ST and the first few months of the season. Can't we skip this experience?

The key phrase here is "expressed interest". This doesn't mean they made him an offer, it just means they are looking into him, probably contacted his agent. "Expressed interest" doesn't tell you a thing about how much they are thinking of offering him or whether it's a minor league or major league deal or any number of other variables.

RUMOR,on 97.5 the phantatic, werth might be close to a 3 year $55 million deal with phils, with a option for a fourth year!

3/55 would be great.

Then sign Fuentes and call it an off-season.

yeah really on reyes. i mean, it's just some report that they are "interested" in reyes. I'm interested in a lot of things. doesn't mean I get them. lord have mercy

****RUMOR,on 97.5 the phantatic, werth might be close to a 3 year $55 million deal with phils, with a option for a fourth year!****

Shocking if true...that's way too team friendly.

97.5 seems to be reporting this from a "source" that is family friends with RAJ. They also seem to be the only ones running with this. Seems doubtful to me.

I wouldn't be shocked if that was the Phillies final offer to Werth but I can't believe that he'd leave that much on the table (in years and $$) from other teams. There's a half-dozen teams that would happily match/exceed that...probably more.

yeah that report is probably bogus but even if it's not, he would never accept it

Hey Phans~ Just got an e-mail:

Just wanted to give you a heads up. I am hearing that the Phils have made an offer to Werth which they think might get him signed. I believe the report but knowing Boras, he will probably say no, just because that is what he does.

Report makes sense because A]arbitration deadline is coming up and B] winter meetings start in a week. My guess is that Amaro wants this done one way or another by Dec 6 so he can decide whether or not he needs to go out and get a RFer like Ordonez, Francoeur or Diaz.

Stay tuned, if I hear any more I will let you know. Write back and let me know you got this...

I did write him back and I asked him several questions. I personally do not believe the rumor (no offense to the person who posted it). I cannot see how Werth would accept this after turning down 4/66.

An e-mail on something that was a rumor reported on last night and this morning by 97.5.

Inside source my ass.

I just got an email, Dpatrone got an email, it must be true. Please research this and get back to me, this invisible guy is very reliable and Dpatrone speaks nothing but pure baseball genius knowledge.

I've just received an e-mail as well everyone.

Just wanted to give you a heads up. I am hearing that the Phils are interested in Dennys Reyes and may be able to get him signed. I believe the report but Amaro is waiting to long to sign any big name free agents. He needs to move faster.

Stay tuned, if I hear any more I will let you know. Write back and let me know you got this...

I did write him back and I asked him several questions. I personally do not believe the rumor (no offense to the person who posted it). I think the Phillies have to do this move immediately or they risk losing next year's NL East because they are not moving fast enough. I want guys signed within minutes of the World Series ending.

TTI~ Why don't crawl back under the rock you came out of? I am just passing on what I got. I didn't say anything was true or not. I don't even know what 97.5 is.

You seem to want to get personal, but your attacks are uncalled for. I am not like that. I'm ok with you disagreeing with me. So what. I was not the first to report this. And you do NOT know me.

It's my opinion that the Phils should not sign Reyes. It's my opinion this offer to Werth MAY be false. MY OPINION. I can't confirm it, and no one else has it. If you disagree, FINE. DO NOT make things personal here. This is supposed to be fun.

Yes, I happen to know someone. And he happens to know Boras. Is that a crime? Don't you know people? I'm sure you do. Why would I make nay of this up? I do not have to impress anyone here. Remember that.

DPatrone: Certainly not a crime to know people. It is completely silly though to try and act like you have some sort of insider source on things. Especially things that have already been mentioned here or are out in the public. I remember at this past trade deadline you were coming in with your "insider e-mails" about Roy Oswalt hours after it was already being reported. I think it's peculiar that in order to get people you don't know to like you that you choose to provide insider details that have been reported already.

If you had specifically come in and said, "I personally do not believe the rumor (no offense to the person who posted it). I cannot see how Werth would accept this after turning down 4/66," that would've been great. It would've been you offering a perspective on a rumor out there. I didn't make fun of that. I made fun of your framing it within the confines of you getting an e-mail from your "source." And getting personal? Please.

Furthermore, I don't necessarily disagree with opinions out of hand. I disagree with how people come about their opinions. And I'm always going to chuckle at someone who wants so desperately to be liked on a message board that they go to the lengths that you do with your e-mails. "Mr. Selig" made fun of you too but I notice you didn't say anything to him.

According to MLBTR (via multiple sources):

Javier Vasquez is going to be a Marlin with a contract in the 6-7 million dollar range.

Also, the NAtionals are reportedly very interested in Brandon Webb

TTI: That gives the Fish a rotation of Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez, Javier Vasquez and Chris Volstad.

They added Dunn and Mujica to a pen that already had Nunez, Hensley and Sanches.

If they can stay healthy, which they haven't been able to do, they could be a handful.

I'll be interested in seeing what a guy like Brandon Webb ends up getting. Last year's FA market was filled with high-risk, high-upside starting pitchers like Sheets, Duchscherer, Harden, Penny, and Bedard. Every single one of them was a complete flop. Given that track record, I don't see any GM giving Webb the $10M that the A's gave to Sheets last year -- even though Webb was an absolutely elite pitcher before his injuries.

BAP: Isn't there an age difference between Webb and those older guys who flopped coming off arm injuries?

Actually I just checked. Webb is younger than all of them except Harden, who's only 28 even though he's been in MLB since 2003.

Harden's problem, though, is that he's been hurt in 5 of his 7 seasons.

That suggests Webb is the best of the bunch.

clout/BAP: My guess is that whatever contract Webb gets will be heavily incentive laden. He probably won't get Sheets 10 million per year though.

My guess would be something like 7-8 million with incentives that could drive it up to 11-13 for the season.

Reports were that his fastball was still in the low 80's when he started in the Instructional League this off-season. I know they said by the end his velocity was coming back and was somewhere between 81-85 (he normally throws in the 87-91 range). Still though I think his injury and the slow recovery may give some teams pause from a huge one year deal without giving themselves some wiggle room. That's why I see the smaller number initially with chances to make it a higher number in the long run should he stay healthy.

He's only 2 months older than Bedard and less than a year older than Sheets & Penny. So all those guys were actually younger last year than Webb is now.

Webb's history is somewhat different than guys like Sheets, Harden, Penny & Bedard. With those guys, it's seemingly a different injury every year. With Webb, it has basically been a single injury but it has kept him out for 2 full seasons in a row (save for 4 IP in 2009). Maybe he'll be like Chris Carpenter, who missed nearly 2 full years & came back as good as new. If so, the team that signs him will get a bargain.

TTI~ "If you had specifically come in and said, "I personally do not believe the rumor (no offense to the person who posted it). I cannot see how Werth would accept this after turning down 4/66," that would've been great."

Isn't that what I said? One thing is for sure, I don't need people here to like me. I post here because I think this is the best Phils blog site there is. And I no longer live in the Philly area.

Why would you, or anyone else for that matter (Mr Selig), think that I have such a need to be liked. You're kidding right? I do get some info and I pass some of it on.

I want Werth to be here just as much as the next guy. So I have been told the report is in fact real, and that Aramo wants it done one way or another by Tues. I've also been told that Boras likes the offer because it's about 18 mil a year.

If you, or anyone else posted the exact same info here I would say to you "great, let's see what happens. But that's not how things are conducted. That being said, I have agreed with you in the past, and I believe you to be reputable. You did in fact, throw out some good stats on Reyes. But to me he's not someone I'd like to see pitching for this team.

As far as you being personal, you (and others) doubt my credibility. Thats's what bothers me. Not anything else. I don't make this stuff up. Why would I. Nothing to be gained by it.

Don't you think for one minute, that I love to tell you who my friend is? Of course I would. All you know of him as well.
About 6 six years ago, I responded to an article he wrote on the Phils. Living down here in Richmond, I thought he be an excellent source of Phils info in the off-season. He responded to me as well and we've been friends ever since. Now if I were to tell you who he is, that would be indescreet.

As far as wanting the Phils to do things quickly, yes that is a fault. I am not very patient. And the more I thought about. maybe that hadn't done anything about RF, is that maybe they were still talking to Werth.

Now I must admit that due to the internet we all have access to the same info. But he has told things today about the Werth thing that haven't even been printed. Me, I thought Werth was long gone since hiring Boras. Maybe I'm wrong. Good.

So let's just say we'll see what happens. I'm gonna go watch the Eagles. They're on down here today.

Patrone, your writing dribbles like a leaky condom

Patrone, your writing dribbles like a leaky condom

What a sloppy metaphor.

The insider info stuff is amusing and all. But in reality there's this.....

Asked in a text message if he was close to signing anywhere, Werth’s response to was: “Not at all. It’s very early. I will make an informed decision in due time.”

Let's hope it's Dennys "the s is for serviceable" Reyes...

as opposed to Danys "the s is for sucks"

Chances of Werth signing for 3/55: Zero.

Chances that clout will backpedal if he does: 100%

Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.

This offseason is boring!

But if that Werth rumor were true (emphasis on rumor, not true), that's more than $18 mil per. So it seems team-friendly in years, definitely, but in line with what Werth was asking in dollars, I thought - Am I wrong?

GBrettfan: You're right. The dollars do seem right. It's the years that sink it.

Holliday signed a 7-year contract. I cannot imagine Werth settling for less than 5.

And to Will: LOL! Kinda hard tio backpedal from that kind of statement, no? But if you want to put your money where your mouth is, you know where to find me.

I would also be surprised if Werth signed for fewer than 5 years.

Werth's contract will look more like Jason Bay's than Matt Holliday's. Bay got 4 years with a vesting option for a 5th, after posting a .921 OPS in 2009. Werth is the same age as Bay was and he had the identical .921 OPS last year. Werth is also better defensively & on the bases; however, Bay had a better long-term offensive track record than Werth has. I'll bet they wind up with very similar contracts.

3 years, $55M strikes me as highly unlikely unless he simply likes playing in Philly so much that he's willing to take way less money than he could command on the open market. But if that were the case, he would have signed long ago & he certainly wouldn't have hired Scott Boras.

I'd love for Werth to sign a team-friendly contract like the one reportedly offered. But since his development stalled with his wrist injury and he's never gotten a big payday, it would be an incredibly stupid life-decision to sign a 3 year deal for guaranteed money when he could get a 5 year deal for guaranteed money. It's so stupid that I can't possibly imagine the rumor that he's even considering that deal has any shred of truth to it.

Boras is a worm, but you can't blame Werth for using him to milk every penny out of a deal that will set him up for life financially.

If the rumors are true, that is pretty encouraging that the Phils are able afford to pay somewhere in the $15-18M range in 2011.

"If" this deal went down(i know it probably wont) you gotta think there would be moves to follow like salary dumping Ibanez and other cutbacks.

The problem is, we have all been operating under the pretense that JWerth is worth 5 years/$100 Mil. We thought he was going to get a big payday on the open market. Maybe that market never developed. Teams are probably pretty skeptical on giving a 33 year old a 5 year deal when his successful history only really dates back 2.5 years. Maybe 3/55 is what the market is dictating. We will find out shortly. He will be signed (somewhere) by the winter meetings.

Why would he take 3 years, $55 million when he turned down 4 years, $64 million back during the season.

Stupid rumor is stupid.

I agree with NoNameFame. I doubt that Werth will get much more per season than what he turned down.

When it comes right down to it, he's had three good seasons as the only right handed bat in a strong lineup and a number of injury plagued seasons prior to that. Werth hasn't had a career worthy of a Jason Bay or Matt Holiday deal.

Compare his three productive seasons to Jason Bay's six productive seasons despite only being a year older. Despite a poor 2010, Bay is a smarter buy than Werth. I don't see Werth exceeding Bay's contract, particularly with Crawford and Lee up for grabs.

As for comparisons to Matt Holiday's contract, don't waste your time. Defensive woes aside, Holiday outclasses Werth by a country mile. Werth's contract won't come close.

If Lee and Crawford land with the Yankees and Red Sox, what money is left around MLB to pay Werth the type of money that Boras says he's worth?

It's not going to happen. When Werth signs, the discussion will be that the team who gets him got a bargain. Frankly, with his very short productive history, I'd sooner go after Ordonez and a #5 starter than to retain Werth for even 3/$55mm. Money better spent elsewhere.

I could see Werth signing for 4 years with an option for a 5th. I don't think it's a lock that he will get 5 guaranteed years, though it's certainly a strong possibility.

Feigning credulity for a moment, I think 3/$55 with an option is a decent opener for negotiating with Werth if the market ultimately dictates a 4 year deal. The annual salary is definitely in the range, and it's a sweeter annual payoff to the 4/$66 that was reported in-season. The negotiation can center on adding a guaranteed year. If someone will give him 5, though, it'd be a short conversation. I would definitely prefer Werth to Bay. Werth has excellent line-drive power and is more versatile by far and the notion that he's damaged goods / injury prone doesn't hold water.

Werth wouldn't be the first player in history to have a few standout seasons before a contract.

I'm not saying that he's damaged goods. I'm saying that if you look at the entirety of his career, he has yet to prove that he's a risk worth taking for that kind of money.

The larger portion of his career has been a disappointment. He may build on the success of 2008 - 2010, or he may regress to 2004 - 2007. This isn't a guy with the career track record of Bay or Holiday.

I'm not saying that he's a flash-in-the-pan, but he hasn't proven himself to be anything more than an outfielder with a history of injury and disappointment who is coming off of a couple successful seasons.

Worth a contract? Yes. Worth Bay/Holiday money? Not even close.

"or he may regress to 2004-2007"

2004: .825 OPS in 326 PA.
2005: .711 OPS in 395 PA.
2006: Did not play
2007: .863 OPS is 498 PA.

How do the seasons from 2004-2007 have any type of similiarityto be grouped together as a phase of his career?

typo above

2007: .863 OPS in 304 PA - not 498.

My point is that in his entire career, he's played two seasons full-time, one season mostly full time after platooning with Jenkins and many more unremarkable seasons at a time when Bay and Holiday were among the more potent bats in the game.

Werth has had a few very good seasons, but he hasn't earned the payday that Bay and Holiday got, nor do I think any team will give it to him. I predict that whoever signs him will get him for not much more than the extension he was offered mid-season.

Not a commentary on his abilities in the past, present or future - just an observation of his marketability in the eyes of the people signing the checks. It's difficult to position him for Bay/Holiday money when he hasn't had a career equal to Bay/Holiday. Much less of a track record of success, any way you slice it.

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