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Saturday, November 13, 2010

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Here's to the Hoover era! He'll always have that walk off hit to end the '09 regular season! I'll miss the HOOOOOOOVER chants at Coca-Cola Park though.

I like the Kratz signing though. I watched the Triple-A All Star Game last season which he left early because he was informed he had been called up and it was such a nice moment to see the guy finally getting the buzz that he was going to the bigs. Telford is about 10 minutes from my house so it's nice to see a hometown guy in the organization.

I'd be shocked if Bonine pitched for the major-league team this year.

He will probably fill out the Lehigh Valley rotation nicely, though. Every year we sign plenty of guys like this--Travis Blackley, Nate Bump, Brandon Duckworth, etc. They are irrelevant to the major-league team.

It hasn't gotten that much attention but there are a ton of veteran FA relievers this year who likely will still be pretty productive next year and could come at some real bargain prices. Also likely to have some veteran relievers who won't be tendered in early Dec too. Some very good 'Value Village' pickups potentially.

List of veteran relievers who signed last year for peanuts and were productive/very productive bargains this past season:

Miguel Batista - Minor league deal
Joe Biemel - Minor league deal
Joaquin Benoit - Minor league deal
Kiko Calero - Minor league deal
DJ Carrasco - Minor league deal
Mark DeFelice - Minor league deal
Elmer Dressens - Minor league deal
Matt Herges - Minor league deal
Javier Lopez - 1 yr/$775k
Guillermo Mota - Minor league deal
Will Ohman - Minor league deal
Jose Veras - Minor league deal
Brian Shouse - Minor league deal

You can fairly easily argue though that there was a similar list of veteran relievers on similar deals who either put up crummy numbers in limited time or didn't even contribute at the MLB level.

Given that the Phils don't have much to spend and their offense will likely be worse next season with Werth's departure, the bullpen is one area that Amaro really has to nail by finding a real bargain or two here this offseason.

Amaro has a generally decent track record here although it is pretty limited. The Contreras/Park FA signings obviously worked out pretty well for the Phils. Baez obviously was a bust but at least the Phils didn't end up with Rodney who was just as awful but at 2x the price for the Angels.

Bonine is just an inventory guy at AAA and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Phils make at least 3-4 more signings here including either Contreras/Durbin although I just have a feeling that Contreras won't be back here and Durbin only if he is looking at pretty moderate paycut (say $1.5-$1.75M range or so down from $2.2M).

Bonine is definitely a candidate for 'mop-up' man.

Tigers generally used him that way all year. Basically a guy who can pitch more than 1-inning if needed. Image he and Herndon will be neck-and-neck right now for that role in spring training.

So the bullpen right now looks like:

Lidge
Madson
Bastardo
Baez
KK/Worley (winner in rotation to start year)
Bonine/Herndon (battle of the mop-up men)
???

Other internal guys who will likely get a decent looks in spring training to make the pen include DeFratus, Stutes, Schwimer, Brummett, Mathieson, and Rosenberg.

Maybe add in the likes of Naylor, Escalona, and Zagurski although I would be stunned if any of those guys got a serious look.

Pretty uninspiring list there except for DeFratus, Schwimer, and maybe Stutes. Brummett stinks. Ditto on Rosenberg. Mathieson's only hope is to learn that splitter from Sutter this offseason because his strategy of just throwing hard isn't going to work at the MLB level.

If the Phils didn't sign any other veteran FA relievers, this has the makings of a lousy bullpen that was typical of late 90s when the Phils had 1-2 decent bullpen options surrounded by a ton of middling internal talent and veteran castoffs/journeyman.

Personally at a minimum I would like to see 2 veteran relievers signed including a proven lefty option and another right-handed reliever because I have little faith in Baez working hard this offseason & bouncing back much. Amaro almost certainly signs another veteran right-handed reliever even if isn't Contreras/Durbin and my bet is that he signs a lefty veteran reliever too.

Just read that multiple teams have interest in Durbin as a potential starter next year? Why?

He was below average/terrible as a starter for the Tigers and hasn't started for 3 years. Some team wants to try to turn him into a starter (which means likely larger dollars than his $2.2M salary last year) and stretching out a guy who has worn down badly generally down the stretch the past few years.

One of the weaker ideas I have seen floated this offseason about any player so far.

MG~ I think RAJ will take care of the 'pen. I really do. My biggest concern is the lack of RH power on this team. Moreso, the guys of that ilk who are available don't excite me either. I think Frenchy would benifit from a change of scenery and he's young (26). But I'm reading that the Phils are trying to get Werth back here as well. If that's true I'm wondering why it didn't get done during the year. So we'll see what happens.But at least I think the 'pen will be taken care of.

Not sure I'd quite compare Bonine to guys like Duckworth & Bump. Neither of those guys had pitched in the major leagues the previous season; they were true AAA roster filler who would have only been called up in a dire emergency. Bonine, on the other hand, pitched 68 major league innings last year, so he's something more than just AAA inventory. He'll no dobut start the season at AAA but, if he puts up respectable numbers there, there's a good chance he'll get a call-up when someone in our pen goes on the shelf.

Re: DPatrone

The Phillies "trying" to get Werth back is all smoke and mirrors. They made an offer to him that he most likely won't go for and if he doesn't accept it, they are moving on and saying "Well, we tried!". The real humor will be if he accepts it and the Phillies are stuck with a contract they had no intention of actually putting out there. Trust me, they know the score. Werth ain't coming back and they are looking elsewhere.

Bonine has a career K/9 of 3.8. Clout should love this guy.

Jack: You've said many, many times that anyone with a K/9 below 5.0 cannot possibly pitch in the big leagues, so clearly Bonine, like Kendrick and numerous others, could not possibly have pitched in MLB last season. The stats are in error.

Depending who the arms are for the bp & the replacement for werth is, along w/ the loss of lopes + the team being a yr older.

well - i really find it hard to believe the phillies will do much past the winning the division..

hope i m wrong

****Jack: You've said many, many times that anyone with a K/9 below 5.0 cannot possibly pitch in the big leagues****

Actually, 4.5K/9 is the rule of thumb for a long career per Bill James historical studies on the subject. 4.0 K/9 is the bare minimum for extreme groundball guys per the same studies.

Clout - So, I guess you missed that Pete Orr can play a little SS as the second backup infielder. Comments? Questions?

I know how you love to quote people months and years later, but you don't seem to have noticed that he has played the "ALL IMPORTANT" SS position.

I'm sure he's no all star there. But I think there's a little value to a guy who can play there in a pinch and also players all three outfield positions and second and third. No?

Ouch, JW, a little balance needed -- it would take this group of posters only a few minutes to produce a long list of recent pitching acquisitions that have failed, sometimes spectacularly. And at least one of those was recently a Tiger, too.

It's about time the Phillies signed a Mennonite.

aksmith: Pete Orr has played 347 major league games. He played SS in 9 of them, 8 of the 9 coming in 2008 with Nats when they were hit by injuries. He is to SS what Carlos Ruiz is to 3B. I think he's just fine as Triple A filler. I will be very, very surprised if he plays an inning for the Phillies unless there are catastrophic injuries.

NEPP: Huge gap between "long career" and "can't pitch in the big leagues" huh?

I wonder what Kendrick has up his sleeve in the off season to mantain the edge he has against NL hitters. Maybe he'll bond with Bonine and learn the knuckler.

Best of luck to Hoover. Seems like a good, hard working guy.

Contreras is a good fit here. Hope they keep him.

In more interesting and relevant news, the Marlins are going to trade Dan Uggla.

I wonder what the Marlins would want in exchange for our new right fielder, Dan Uggla?

Uggla would hit HRs by the dozen in CBP and hitting 5th in this lineup.

Unikruk: Halladay, Oswalt, Herndon, Contreras were great pickups. Baez was a bust, but not a spectacular one. Blanton worked, Durbin worked ... Not seeing all that many spectacular busts.

Teach Uggla to play RF. I'd love to see his bat on this team.

Greg V~

Re: DPatrone

The Phillies "trying" to get Werth back is all smoke and mirrors. They made an offer to him that he most likely won't go for and if he doesn't accept it, they are moving on and saying "Well, we tried!". The real humor will be if he accepts it and the Phillies are stuck with a contract they had no intention of actually putting out there. Trust me, they know the score. Werth ain't coming back and they are looking elsewhere.

I am aware of all of this. There is nothing you are are telling me that I don't already know. I was just commenting on what I read. If you read my previous comments on Werth, you would have seen that I said as soon as Werth hired Boras he was as good as gone, and also that 100 million for Werth was too much. I also said that if both parties wanted to stay married the deal would have been done already. The 4/66 offer the Phils supposed made which was turned down was more than generous for a player that hit 16 HR's for and had 2 very good years for the Phils. Please, I know what I'm talking about.

The Phils are doing exactly what they sould be doing in this situation. The will and should move on from Werth but they are keeping the door slightly ajar just in case everyone else realizes what he wants is ridiculous and decised to negotiate again with the Phils. A very good friend of mine het met Boras a few times and the man is just not a nice guy to deal with from what I've been told. The only reasons Madson re-signed with the Phils being a Boras client, were that the Phils made a market-value offer for to him and he told Boras he wanted to stay. And if Werth really wanted to stay all he had to do was communicate that to his agent as well. But he didn't. He fired him and hired Boras. So yeah he's gone.

What remains to be seen is who'll be the RH power bat that RAJ will bring in.

DPatrone: Why is "what Werth wants" ridiculous? You seem to not understand how a market works. What Werth receives is what someone values him at. "What he wants" is relevant only so long as someone is willing to pay him that.

If someone pays him that, I find it odd to be mad at Werth or Boras. You seem to really dislike players being paid money for their services. You were the one advocating collusion, right?

Yeah i never understand why in a market system set up for the players to go out and get what they think they are worth we have to refer to them as "ridiculous demands."

If Werth thinks he is worth x number of dollars and some team will pay him x (or 90-95%) of x he should take it. That's the way it works.

If the Phils send Kendrick to Florida for Uggla it would devastate JW's posting numbers.

Let's pray that doesn't happen.

Andy,

I'll start praying for that right after I finish praying that hte Cowboys turn around their season under Jason Garrett and sneak into the playoffs at 9-7.

Kendrick for Uggla? Wake up, Andy. It's just a dream. A wonderful wonderful dream.

As one of the few KK defenders here, if the Phils could trade him for Uggla, I'd wish him great luck with his new team.

It was a joke...but with Bonine on the staff I think we'd have enough depth in the pitch-to-contact, can't-strikeout-anyone-but-pitchers, DITHL, ROOGY department to allow Rube to shop Kyle. Maybe even to Japan.

I wonder if FLA would take three hot prospects for Uggla, um, let's see....how about Ramirez, Aumont and Gillies?

That's it. Rizzotti would fit right into the Marlins Defensive Scheme.

Kendrick for Uggla straight up probably wouldn't happen, but some combination of Mathieson, Mayberry, Carpenter, Galvis, Rizzotti, Gilles, Bastardo with Kendrick...

...stranger deals have happened, and we could do worse for a right handed bat in RF for 2011.

Might also allow for some free cash to work on the pen or to make a push for an upgrade at the back end of the rotation.

Clint Hurdle to manage the Pirates. One less candidates for the Mutts tot choose from.

I would say that Mathieson, Mayberry, Carpenter, Bastardo and Kendrick all have little-to-no trade value.

Myno: I'd argue that Kendrick, Mathieson and Bastardo have greater value than Donald, Marson, Gilles, Aumont, Ramirez, Taylor, Carrasco et al, especially for a 1yr rental to a team with virtually no chance of re-signing him.

I'd say Kendrick, Mathieson and Bastardo or Kendrick, Mathieson, Mayberry is about as valuable as anything that any other team would put up for him.

NEPP: Huge gap between "long career" and "can't pitch in the big leagues" huh?

Posted by: clout | Saturday, November 13, 2010 at 10:16 PM


Well obviously. Though, unlike some here, that's all I've ever said about a guy like KK. He's a 5th starter who hangs around until he ineffective or not cost-effective. If he gets $2 million in arbitration this year, he's not worth it. Hopefully they figure it out before that though.

Schweitzer - A LHP who isn't even trusted as a LOOGY by his own team, a RHP who's had multiple TJ surgeries and can't get out of AAA, a 4A OFer who can't hit RHPs to save his life, and a MLB starter whose upside is a #4. These are the prospects you think would net an All-Star 2B like Dan Uggla?

Do you even put any thought at all into these posts or is this more like a "stream-of-consciousness" thing?

NEPP: So you think the Phils should non-tender him?

What do the Phillies have to offer the fish if the Marlins are looking for RP'ing, catching and mid infield help?

Harold Garcia, Justin Defratus and Sebastian Valle.

And no, I would not trade them for Uggla. Unless the Marlins also agreed to pay his salary. Which, if they'd do that, they'd sign him themselves and not trade him.

The Marlins are more likely to deal Uggla for one high-quality prospect than 4 mediocre prospects.

On Uggla, I like his right handed bat, and he seems like an all business type player who would probably benefit from a change of scenery here. But is anyone seriously suggesting he could be the Phils right fielder? I'm not asking to be nasty, I just can't imagine it, and am wondering if I'm missing something.

aksmith: Uggla's salary this year is $7.8M and if he'd agree to continue at that salary the Marlins absolutely would re-sign him. They'd have no problem paying his salary this year.

The problem is that Uggla wants $12M per year for 5 years starting in 2011. That's what the Marlins won't pay.

P.S. If you offered Beinfest Garcia, DeFratus and Valle for Uggla, he would laugh in your face. They'll land a much better prospect than that trio or, more likely, a young player already in MLB who they can control for the next 4 or 5 years.

Bob: The chances of Uggla getting traded to the Phillies to become the starting RF are zero.

Well that's settled. It would be less expensive trying to close the hole in Francouer's swing anyway.

****NEPP: So you think the Phils should non-tender him?****

It depends on what they think he'll get. They might want to consider non-tendering him and then signing him to a lower deal. However, considering they have no depth in AAA, its probably best to bite the bullet on him for another year cost-wise. He's servicable as a 5th starter.

Kendrick provided 0.7 WAR last year, according to Fangraphs, which is equal to about $3 million, I believe (a marginal win is worth about $5 mill on the open market or so). Under that calculus, KK is worth it for next year.

Of course, if you think Worley is the better 5th starter, the question is whether it's still worth $1.5-2 mill for a long-man/fill-in starter. Personally, I do think Worley is the better option to be the 5th starter, but the Phils may end up paying KK his money just for the insurance.

ESPN reporting Phils are close to a 2 yr deal worth $5 mil for Contreras and 3rd yr option

Well, as a rule I'm against multi-year deals for middle relievers, especially ones who could be anywhere from 39 to 50 in age.

That said, this one I guess is a necessary evil. Contreras should be a fine part of the bullpen next season.

And anyway, with Moyer leaving, Amaro knew he had to do some work to keep us as the oldest team in the league.

Werth's demands (or Boras' for that matter) for 100 million are ridiculous any way you slice it. But if he can get it more power to him. I know exactly how the market works. I'm not some young kid who just fell out of a tree.

Yes Werth is better all-around than Holliday. But the Phils made a him a great offer. I'm not saying he should or should not have taken it. But Holliday's contract (which is also stupid) set the market so there you go.

It's not wrong for a player to get as much as he can. I'm not disputing that at all.

I just don't believe that Werth nor Holliday is worth $100 million.

Contreras? I like that he's going to be re-signed. I do not like that it's 2 years.

Thanks, clout.

boy i wish RAJ would've given Danys Jose's deal and Jose's deal to Danys last year

Yeah, pb, so do I.
But I don't think that RAJ is gonna let that mere $couple mil stop him from doing things to build up the bullpen.

****ESPN reporting Phils are close to a 2 yr deal worth $5 mil for Contreras and 3rd yr option

****

Really? That's just brutal. Terrible deal.

Danys and Jose are a tag team. RAJ will probably extend Baez.

I like Takahashi...he's really tough on LHB and he was very solid as a reliever overall. The pricetag is a bit steep but its about what we gave Romero (3 years, $12 million) so its not ridiculous.

I guess I should qualify that comment...per MLBTradeRumors, we're interested in LHP Hasanori Takahashi. He's asking for 3 years, $14-15 million (overall) supposedly.


Thoughts?

Did anyone read Brookover's column this morning?

It quickly reminded me why I don't read that papper often, especially in the offseason.

Does the guy even watch baseball?

From High Cheese:

"According to an ESPN Deportes report, the Phillies are close to a two-year, $5 million deal with veteran righthander Jose Contreras.

The report indicates the contract would include numerous incentives and an option for a third year.

Signing Contreras would seem to leave the Phillies with a veteran left-handed reliever as their top free agent priority in the bullpen. One name that has surfaced as a potential addition is Mets lefty Hisanori Takahashi, who excelled in relief last season and can also fill-in as a starter.

Blue Jays lefty Scott Downs is probably the biggest name on the market, but he is a Type A Free agent, which means a team could have to forfeit a draft pick if they sign him."

I don't like the terms of this deal at all especially if that 3rd yr is a player option/mutual option.

What is Amaro's fascination with signing veteran bench players/relievers to 2-yr deals? Is there really that much of a market for Contreras on a multi-year deal?

Seriously he is likely pushing at least 41-42 (not the completely bogus 38) and has had a history of maladies lately and trips to the DL in recnet years:

- May 2006 (Initial 15-day DL trip for the sciatica in his leg that hampered his all season long including posting a 5.40 ERA after the ASB)

- July 2008 (Ineffective early in the season and finally put on the DL in July for tendonitis in his right elbow.)

- August 2008 (Blows out his Achilles on Aug. 9 and is done for the year).

- Went through a bit of a dead arm period last year during June and steadily lost velocity/effectivness as the season progressed as he was utilized a bit more by Cholly after the ASB. His stats all notably dipped after the ASB.

Pre-ASB: 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, .223 BAA
Post-ASB: 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP,
7.8 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, .286 BAA

Amaro is deploying his usual strategy of being a 'first-mover' in the market and paying a premium in the process to get the player he wants. He has had mixed results with this in the FA market to date.

My bet is that this backfires on him with Contreras simply because he isn't going to be healthy/effective over the next 2 years. Wouldn't be suprised at all if Contreras as at least one trip to the DL where he misses at least a month or so.

Plus, this market is loaded with veteran FA help/guys who won't get tendered. There are likely to be a number of guys out there who likely to be hand in January or later at some real bargain prices as their were last winter.

Amaro knows that Werth is gone and likely realizes that the offense is going to take a notable hit next year even if he brings in another veteran OF option. Likely going to try to load in the bullpen. Just don't know if Contreras is a guy who want to tie your wagon to for 2 yrs at relatively decent dollars.

Clamoring for resigning Contreras reminds me alot of Park last year. Park initially wanted a multi-year deal too at big dollars. Instead he and his agent completely misread the market. He had to wind up signing a 1-yr/$1.5M deal with the Yanks instead.

$2.5M sounds about right for Contreras this year and maybe a bit more if you had given him some real incentive upside for appearances, etc. 2nd yr and the potential 3rd yr option are likely mistakes.

"I like Takahashi...he's really tough on LHB and he was very solid as a reliever overall. The pricetag is a bit steep but its about what we gave Romero (3 years, $12 million) so its not ridiculous."

FWIW, some on-line Mets "friends" or better yet, co-haunters of BBTF, have said that they would expect Takahashi to have major problems with RHs and the short porch in LF.

I wonder how much of the dislike of the 2yr Contreras signing has to do with personality.

Not that there's anything wrong with Jose, but god forbid anyone ever said that Jamie Moyer might be nearing the end of his career. Even suggesting on BL that a 46 or 47 year old starter might be at the end of his career was cause for at least three or four posters to rush to his defense.

2 yrs for $5 million for a reliable arm that's almost a decade younger than Moyer in the pen that can spot start if necessary... sounds like a pretty solid deal to me.

Had Moyer not suffered an injury in the Dominican, I doubt that there would be much complaint about bringing him back for 2yr/$5 mil, and even if he were healthy, I doubt he'd be as valuable to the club in 2011-2012 as Contreras.

Just an observation. No slam intended against Moyer or any posters.

Phils hire Ryne Sandberg to manage AAA.

All these ex-2nd Basemen in the coaching ranks has me a little suspicious. Morandini next?

Schweitzer - Criticizing the Contreras signing because of race as an issue? WTF.

Plenty of people on here criticized Amaro signed when he signed Moyer to that 2 yr extension after the '08 season because of the high likelihood of him being ineffective/injured. Both happend to him over the past 2 years. Likely something similiar happens with Contreras.

That thing that always irked me about the Moyer signing in particular was that Amaro insisted that he needed to give him a 2-yr yr because of other teams vying for his services. Well, the other team that was most interested in him was the Mets who adamantly refused to give him a guaranteed 2nd yr at the time.

If Rube gives Contreras a two year deal, he's a lot dumber than I thought he was.

There is no art to what he's doing. He overpays players and gives them too many years because he has a big budget.

No other team will give Conteras two years. None. What in the world is he accomplishing by giving guys more years/money than anyone else would give them? Contreras was a nice piece to have this past season. But as some have already mentioned, he lost velocity as the season went on. And that means his age and effectiveness going forward have to be concerns.

2 million for one season or nothing. Then if he doesn't take it, you move on. Sheesh.

MG: Who said anything about race? I was talking about Moyer being a local boy and a feel-good story of a grizzled old veteran plugging along.

Interesting peek into your psyche though, sir.

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