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Monday, November 29, 2010

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I liked Dom Brown better when his name was Reggie Taylor. Trade him while you still can!

/sarcasm

Why? Why baby him? Just let him get his at bats.

What would be the purpose of pulling him out now?

The Winter Ball Leagues aren't primarily developmental. They play to win. So if Brown doesn't start hitting soon he may get benched.

Because he was only supposed to be there a few weeks anyway and you don't want Ken Oberkfell and the non-Phillies DR staff to be handling your top prospect. Bring him to spring training early. What's the difference?

Doesn't matter whether he went 17-17 or 0-17.

Let him play. He only has three weeks left anyway

At any rate, he needs a full season in AAA before any discussions about starting or platooning in Philadelphia are had.

A 2yr deal to Magglio for the right price is looking like a pretty decent idea.

re: Bay/Holliday Money

not sure how comparible $66/4yr and $120/7yr are. If you're going by yearly average, than $55/3yr is the same thing as Bay/Holliday money.

I for one am tired of this blog's anti-Ken Oberkfell crusade.

Seriously though, he'll be fine. Letting him ride a slump out in the Dominican won't be any worse than Charlie relegating him to decoy duty for weeks at a time.

That's what I've been saying, Jason.

Bay and Holiday are paid for consistent performance - roughly twice as long of consistent performance for outfielders of similar age.

Considering his short resume, the current market for OF, the relatively few teams that can afford Boras' demands and the availability of Lee and Crawford for top spending teams, I think that 3yr/$55m would be overpaying in the eyes of many GMs.

I don't see Werth exceeding it in terms of dollars per year or number of years. I think that when he signs, we will be discussing how it was for much less than what was talked about.

Don't mistake what I'm saying - I'm not saying he won't perform in 2011, 2012, etc... I'm saying that there are far too many question marks for any GM to justify paying him what he's looking for.

Well, I dont know how the Phillies would make the money work in terms of current payroll, but in theory, I would take Werth on a $55/3yr deal in a heartbeat.

I understand the yearly average is on the high side, but i would gladly pay a few premium dollar over 3 years than market value(even discounted value) for 5 years.

Werth has had 4 consecutive years of OPS+ 120, 121, 129 and 145. Is he as good of a hitter than Matt Holliday - no not many are - but Werth is one of the few out there that come close.

And you could even make the case that he had a pretty unlucky year with his RISP numbers and could be primed for an ever better 2011.

Will: I would argue your point about his lack of track record. I can't imagine a player's wrist injury in 2006 as a sticking point to any GM pursuing him.

I would also argue your earlier point that the current market will keep him being paid highly. I see Werth as the clear cut #2 position player free agent behind carl crawford. So wherever crawford goes, you will have every other team in the league who are in the market for a free agent with Werth on the top of their list.

Werth:

I'm told Boras came to the Phils to talk as the market is/was not going to bring what he's asking. It's 3/55 guaranteed and a 4th year mutual option in the 20 million area.
So basically if the 4th year option is exercised it's 4/75 (18.75/yr.). 50/50 that he signs RAJ wants an answer by tomorrow. If the offer is turned down, RAJ will then pursue a RH bat.

As far as Brown, I agree, let him play. The team needs to find out what he can do.

I'm 99% sure that report and all the details is completely fabricated. There is no way Boras and Werth come back to the Phils before the FA period even reaches December knowing what the market is going to be like.

Phylan: By DPat's standards of free agency signing periods, RAJ and Werth negotiating after thanksgiving is like already being 3 chambers into a game of russian roullette.

If that's really true, the offer will be turned down. No way Werth signs tomorrow for that deal.

Anyway, it's not true so it doesn't really matter.

Also, I wanted to disagree with Clout, who posted his annual "Marlins could be really good this year" message on the last thread. He does this every year, and yet the Marlins haven't made the playoffs since 2003.

You will find no bigger fan of Javy Vasquez than me. He was probably the most underrated pitcher in baseball over the last decade. That said, he had legitimate issues last year--it wasn't just luck. His fastball velocity seriously dipped, and he lost control (walking twice as many guys as the year before). It wouldn't surprise me at all if he missed time next year with an injury, or if his performance failed to rebound.

Additionally, Chris Volstad hasn't really been good since his rookie year. Johnson is obviously a stud, and Sanchez took a step forward this year, but I don't think they have the consistency they'll need from Nolasco-Vasquez-Volstad. In addition, they traded away the only CF on their roster (Maybin) and their 2nd-best hitter (Uggla). Stanton is a future stud, but he can't be expected to carry the middle of the lineup after Hanley just yet. Their big bullpen acquisition that Clout loves, Mike Dunn, has had worse numbers than Antonio Bastardo his whole career.

They're a .500 team. With a few breaks, they could get into the mid to high 80's and stay relevant, but I don't see them seriously battling for a playoff spot.

jack: you countered the cloutian statement of "they could be good" with actual numbers and predictions.

I wonder how this debate will settle...

So what you're saying is that we should just release Dom Brown now and cut our losses?

"who posted his annual "Marlins could be really good this year" "

Funny, I thought the same thing when I saw that.

Hey Phans~ Don't shoot the messenger ok. The most likely landing spots for Werth are Boston (LF for 1 year), if they don't sign Beltre and The Phils. Anahiem is targeting Crawford.

Also, I'm going to be real nice now. Check out this website for all jerseys: www.jersey-shops.com This is website is in China. I have purchased several Phils and Eagles jersyes from there. $18.50 per (USD). Every logo, name & number is sewn on, no screening. A person I work with told me about this site. The jerseys are supposed to be authentic. If they're not, they're the best replicas I've ever seen. I recently got the 1948 Richie Asburn jersey shown on MLB.com ($249.99). When the jersey arrived it had the Mitchell & Ness tag on it. I kid you not. Check it out.

Does he still know how to pitch?

Will Schweitzer: "Werth has had a few very good seasons, but he hasn't earned the payday that Bay and Holiday got, nor do I think any team will give it to him. I predict that whoever signs him will get him for not much more than the extension he was offered mid-season. Not a commentary on his abilities in the past, present or future - just an observation of his marketability in the eyes of the people signing the checks."

Will has an amazing ability to see into the future since this offseason's market hasn't even developed yet.

I wouldn't worry about Brown. Jack has assured us that he'll hit the ground running on April 1, that he needs no more seasoning at all and the Phils have no need to bring in a veteran as insurance.

My prediction if Brown is allowed to have 600 PA in RF this year (at the MLB level)

.330 AVG, .425 OBP, 42 HRs, 41 SB, 138 RBI and 21 OF assists


That's assuming he has a rough first month to acclimate. If not, he could push .380 AVG.

I must say, clout is in top form for biting sarcastic comments lately.


No off-season rust at all.

Add Tim Byrdak to the list of free agent LOOGYs; the Astros just released him. He very much fits the Phillies' prototype, since he's old & cheap. That said, he can certainly get lefties out and is no worse than Dennys Reyes. I could easily see him landing with the Phillies & giving us much what Scott Eyre gave us in 2009.

Now please resume arguing.

"Will has an amazing ability to see into the future since this offseason's market hasn't even developed yet."

I'm sure a man of your intelligence was able to detect the word "predict" in the post of mine that you quoted.

Am I mistaken, or is a "prediction" an estimation of something in the future that hasn't developed yet? :)

Will,
I don't appreciate the blatant racism implyed in your comment. Just stop it now please.

It wouldn't surprise me though if Amaro does want to get the Werth issue over ASAP to pursue other options at the winter meetings next week. Amaro isn't going to be a guy who sits. Likely either done by Friday or not done at all. I have no idea on the money but what DPatrone is suggesting makes a fair amount of sense.

BTY - The full share for a Giants' player for winning the WS was $317k. That's a nice stocking stuffer. Winning the WS nowadays is a really nice pay especially for rookies and journeyman.

Jack: I must say, I get more entertainment from you than anyone. I laughed for 10 minutes.

"I wanted to disagree with Clout, who posted his annual "Marlins could be really good this year" message on the last thread."

This, per your usual style, is not what I wrote at all. What I said was, "If they can stay healthy, which they haven't been able to do, they could be a handful."

Then you conclude by saying: "With a few breaks, they could get into the mid to high 80's and stay relevant."

A break like avoiding injuries, perhaps? Quite hilarious.

If Amaro has given Werth and Boras a deadline of tomorrow, as our inside-sourced correspondent reports, then he is the most incompetent GM in baseball history.

BAP: Totally agree on Byrdak. That's exactly the kind of guy they'll bring in.

If we DO sign Byrdak...I do hope that Rube is smart enough to lock him up on a multi-year deal. I'd hate to see a talent like him walk after one season.

According to most on this site RAJ has already proven himself to the most incompetent GM in the history (THE HISTORY) of baseball already.

And the Tigers GM is the best GM in baseball b/c he's already made 2(!!) signings this offseason.

A friend of mine tried to buy a 17 game plan today for the upcoming Phils season, and ended up on a waiting list for $100 per ticket with the promise to 'contact you in february if a ticket package is available'.

There has been a waiting list for season tickets for months.

Clout: My issue isn't bringing in a veteran for "insurance." It's bringing in a GOOD veteran for insurance.

Why you would want some mediocre veteran like Bill Hall to post a 90 OPS+ instead of letting Brown play is beyond me.

Pulling out is for losers.
BTW, DPatrone, have your people call my people.
-Steve

phillengood: your lame attempt at humor is only exceeded by your inability to spell bisyllabic words.

Clout~ From what I've been told RAJ would like to have done by the arb deadline. This is so he would know how to proceed one way or another. I'm not saying this is true, I'm saying this is part of what I've been told. As I've said before, do shoot the messenger.

My guess is that Amaro would rather have Werth than anyother bat out there, correct. But he can't sit back and wait forever. He has other things to do.

He's also wanting to get this done so he can get a better idea of how much he has to spend on the 'pen.

Will your just lame period, I thought you quit this blog after you made an a** out of yourself a few weeks ago.

Jack: I vote for good over bad. I'm also rooting for Brown to be ready.

Where we differ: If he's not ready, you just want to continue to play him.

DPatrone: I'd be very shocked if Werth signs before the Winter Meetings, Amaro deadline or not.

phillengood: Sorry. Did I hurt your feelings so badly that you need to lower yourself to personal attacks? Dry your eyes, princess.

another offseason classic we're all getting used to, in the same mold of "they could be good, if...":

"I'm rooting for X to happen, but i predict Y"

As in, clout is rooting for Dom Brown to be ready in 2011, but has made several statements that he thinks Dom won't be and continues to diminish other posters who predict otherwise.

Clout~ So would I.

jason/phaithful: Wrong again, as usual.

Find one post where I predicted Dom won't be ready. What I've said is there's a chance he won't be, based on his lack of experience and his troubles with breaking pitches that we saw in Septmeber.

Obviously, it's best all around if he is ready. All I, and some others here, have said is that it's wise to have some insurance in case he needs another 2 or 3 months in Trip A.

clout: Without looking, I am pretty sure you predicted that Dom would be starting the year in triple A a few weeks back.

I'm sure your exact post had a couple opt out clauses in case he doesn't and included some exaggerated view of someone else, but the basics were still that you thought Dom would be in AAA come April 1.

From my dealing with the Phils Ticket Office the last 2 years (this year and next) as a partial season ticket holder, my experiences have generally found them with pretty crappy customer service.

Calls and emails are not returned and answers to any questions are only provided when you proactively contact them & reach a sales rep. Even then, you sometimes get a wrong/partially incorrect answer.

They likely are a bit overwhelmed by demand but my experience and other family members has been the same over the years - unless you are a full-season ticket holder you get mixed customer service.

Clout: Your boy Melky is still available as insurance for D.Brown. Still hoping we get him?

Will -- calling someone a princess just after flogging them for 'personal attacks' just before making fun of their writing ability (plus using a big word in making fun of the poster) has left me confused. Really wasn't a personal attack, maybe a little jab, but not sure it reached attack level.

So...about those "site updates" promised about two weeks ago...???

Clout: If Dom is bad, you think he will be so bad that someone putting up a 90 OPS+ will make a huge difference? And how do you know that your veteran won't have a bad two-month stretch too?

Basically, your making a decision based on (X) percent chance Dom is so bad that (X) percent chance of veteran putting up his mediocre career numbers is worth the cost of that player plus the cost of sending Dom down and having him miss gaining major-league experience.

To me, that veteran has to be pretty good for that calculus to work.

I'm very pessimistic about next year's offense.

I honestly believe everyone's prime years are behind them and the decline has already begun. Nobody is in the 27-29 year old range where players typically excel. Instead everyone is on the wrong side of 30 and that's a bad thing. Dom Brown is needed for his youth and salary relief. The Phils desperately need him to hit next season.

So, the Phils may sign either a good or bad LOOGY.

Dom Brown either will or will not be ready to go.

The Marlins will either be good or not.


Yep, Beerleaguer ( or Cloutleaguer, as it's known to everyone else) is in midseason form.

Ralph: Why the name change?

Jack: You're right. Dom should just play every day no matter what. If he's sent down it will cause him to miss gaining big league experience. No promising rookie has ever been sent down without it hurting him.

Sheesh!

aksmith: I'd say most people know it as Weitzelmania.

The Scott hate on Weitzel is like the Heather hate on Charlie

The good news is that Dom hit four points higher in the 2009 Arizona Fall League for the same Scottsdale team than did Buster Posey; .229 to .225.

Ralph: What's wrong with calling someone a princess? Is there something wrong with being female? Should I assume that this person is male? Would it be an attack if I called him "dude"?

;)

Er...I'm a hater?

Yeah Ralph,
It's like calling Will Schweitzer a big douchebag or complete idiot. We don't know if he is indeed a big douchebag or a complete idiots, he seems like one most of the time and if he was, there is nothing wrong with noting it. If he isn't perhaps considering him a medium sized douchebag or moron would be better.
Understand?

i'm in the "let dom play" camp. let's remember that mike schmidt batted .196 in his first (132 games/367 at bats) season in 1973. the next season he batted .282 in 160 games with 568 at bats.

and i want michael taylor back. his minor league stats as a phillie are amazing.

Raul's Grandpa: Given the choice, I'd rather be "a complete idiots"

I love seeing grammatical errors in these childish flames. It's not an indication that you can't write properly. It indicates that you had written something, erased it, then wrote something else without checking your syntax.

It humbles me that I take up that much of your day, and it gives me a chuckle that after god knows how many rewrites, that was your best effort. :)

Well that or I wrote it on a blackberry while drinking.

Taking me on the road? I'm touched.

Getting back to baseball from whatever the hell we've been talking about, there is no reason whatsoever that Dom shouldn't play a full season in AAA. I'd sooner see him under team control for another season than to enjoy whatever marginal upgrade he may, or may not be for the 2010 season over a BenFran/FA platoon.

Clout: When will you send Dom down? During ST? Or when he hits .100 for his first two weeks? How long will you give him?

Please let me know when you propose we will know for sure whether Dom is ready or not, and when we should implement our insurance policy.

Jack: I'll leave that to Rube and Charlie.

If the Phils weren't a contender I'd agree with your "play him all season no matter what" stance. But I don't think Charlie will let him hang out there for very long if he's clearly not ready.

Clout: I don't necessarily say "play him all season no matter what."

I say play him over Jeff Francoeur or Bill Hall. If you can get a legit RF, I'd be fine with giving Brown some time to develop. However, I happen to think that Brown can be as good (or better) a player than Bill Hall right now.

Clout: I've also never understood your insistence that we sign someone, even if that person has worse career numbers than Ben Francisco.

Why wouldn't you just prefer Francisco?

Jack: The more I see of Francisco the less I like him. He can give you a nice OPS, but the bad fielding, bad baserunning and poor fundamentals make me willing to sacrifice some OPS for better defense, running and fundamentals. But there are plenty of guys I'd choose Francisco over.

Stark just tweeted on ESPN.com that Jamie Moyer is going to have Tommy John surgery.

Best of luck to him.

bullit: "i'm in the "let dom play" camp. let's remember that mike schmidt batted .196 in his first (132 games/367 at bats) season in 1973."

And, the Phils finished in last place in 1973. This would be a no-brainer if the Phils didn't expect to compete for a pennant in '11.

I'm in the 'Brown is the future but, don't hand Dom Brown the job in December' camp. I make contingency plans for how I play it, i.e., I sign a right handed OF who I can play if I believe Brown's not ready, OR, who can spell Ibanez / be my 4th OF if Brown is putting his game together in the spring. I don't go buying two years of a guy like Ordonez or Quentin, unless the price is lower than I expect. I keep my powder dry for July and, if the future (Brown) is not now, I bite the bullet on a trade for a guy playing out a contract(not sure who this is now, of course) on a team out of contention to push the team toward the pennant.

thanks, hugh. i think uc has already said that dom has to earn the job. i'd hate to see him platooned with a journeyman who hits .230 and slows his learning curve on lefties. let him succeed or fail till the all star break.

I'd rather see Roy Oswalt play RF then Jeff Francouer.

You throw it between the ondeck circles, and he'll swing...and miss. We already have more then enough guys who do that.

Seriously, that guy sucks. There are reasons why he's played for 3 teams in a year.

Hot stove season is fun. I do think we have some money to burn, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ruben made another big spash somehow.

That said, I really don't think that the acquisition of the ideal LOOGY or the perfect RH platoon outfielder is going to make the difference next season. The keys to 2011 are:

1. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley bouncing back from off-years (throw Jimmy in there, too, but his bounce-back might be less likely)

2. H2O staying healthy.

If our next best option in right is a fourth outfielder, what does it hurt to let Dom sort himself out in the bigs? He's already hit at every level of the minors. Kid's gotta learn to hit ML pitching at some point. May as well be April.

RT: It all comes down to money and team control. Is a season of questionable performance from a prospect who has yet to spend a full season in AAA worth exchanging for a cost-effective season at age 27 or 28 when he may be performing up to his potential?

If we were absolutely desperate for a competent OF or if they had no hope to contend, I'd say play him. As it stands, we can contend, we have BenFran/Mayberry/Gload and we have money to play with for a cost-effective reclamation project (remembering that Werth was one of those projects not long ago) or a RH veteran (Ordonez).

In short, Dom in Philly for 2011 is high risk, low reward. Atlanta made this mistake with Heyward. Amaro should learn from this, not replicate it.

Will,
We are not writing term papers. If I had to guess most of us write a quick post at work to kill some time, without giving much thought to grammar. You have lost all credability and your last line of defense is to attack a fellow bloggers grammer. Pathetic but predictable.

Schweitzer - "In short, Dom in Philly for 2011 is high risk, low reward. Atlanta made this mistake with Heyward. Amaro should learn from this, not replicate it."

I hope that was supposed to be sarcasm. Otherwise it's one of the least informed statements I've ever seen on this blog.

Heyward was the team's best offensive player the entire year, and the team made the playoffs by 1 game. -- What a mistake by Atlanta to let him play.

Phillengood: What's truly pathetic is that someone cannot manage to spell simple words like "credibility" and "grammar".

Most of us do write quick posts. Most of us can handle simple things like spelling 7th grade vocabulary. I apologize that this gives you difficulty, but you'll note that you started this with your sad little jab at me. As I do not know you, all I have to go on is the words you choose (and apparently cannot spell). If you're sensitive to being picked on, perhaps you shouldn't pick on others.

Chris: Heyward did not make the difference in the Braves being a championship ballclub. He played well, but wasn't the force that he was touted to be. Now, they've burned one inexpensive year for no ultimate reward and hurt their chances at adding pieces when his arbitration comes a year sooner than it had to. His contribution could have been replicated for less money in the open FA market than Heyward will likely earn in his first arb year...and if whatever value village signee they landed was a total disaster, they could always have brought up Heyward mid-season and kept his first arb year at bay.

Baseball is a business, and Heyward in Atlanta in 2010 was a poor business decision. Dom in Philly in 2011 is an equally poor business decision.

If the Braves had not brought him up until April 15 or 16, Heyward's free agency would have been deferred by one year. Heyward would have missed the Braves' first 9 or 10 games. During that span, his OPS was well over 1.000, and he may have made the difference in one or two games.

As jason.tp says, the Braves made the playoffs by one game.

Did the Braves make the right call?

The answer is not clear-cut.

Is a wild card appearance and a quick defeat by San Fransisco worth up to $10 million dollars?

Is it certain that no one could be had on a 1yr contract in a crowded OF free agent market that could've performed well enough for the first month of the season?

Starting the season with Heyward was a gamble. If the goal is a champioship season, it did not pay off. If the goal was a token appearance in the playoffs and less of a chance to reach the playoffs when Heyward is up for arbitration and they can't add the pieces that they need to contend, then I suppose they made the right move.

They gambled at the expense of the greater good and they lost.

The Braves have shown an inclination to sign their own players through their peak years. They usually let them go as they enter the declining production years. Andruw Jones, Rafael Furcal, etc. They follow the Eagles' model. They only exception is Chipper, although he never looks like he's in decline against the Phils. They always seem to find a way to keep their central pieces when they want to. And they'll do the same with Heyward. This season of lost inexpensive production won't make much difference to them when it's time to sign him. He'll be a super two and expensive pretty early on regardless. And if they want him, they'll find the money.

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