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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

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The Giants barely squeaked by a battered, bruised, and psychologically beaten Braves team that limped into the playoffs.

The Phils dismantled the best offensive team in the NL in a dominating three-game sweep.

I'm not worried.

I'm with johnny, Phils in 3.

Even better, Phils in 2.

The Giants will forfeit the rest of the series after losing the first two games by a combined score of 34-0.

carrying over from yesterday just to set my "bet" straight - Dom Brown will be on the Opening Day roster in 2011.

Who guesses AAA?

I can, without a doubt, guarantee that the Phillies will not win a 7 game series in 3.

Phillies in 4...assuming the Giants don't forfeit after we whip them the first 2 times.


All seriousness though, Phillies in 4.

Haha - Needed to spend a couple extra seconds reading over these posts before posting.

Just to get you all hyped for the game 1 matchups, here are the pitcher's lines from their last game (which, coincidentally, was the first postseason game for each pitcher)

Roy Halladay:
9 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB

Tim Lincecum:
9 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 14 K, 1 BB

*drools*

ah, the return of The Bat. best subplot going into this series?

Does Bumgarner remind anyone else of Happ? Lefties, and he seemed to go to the high fastball like Happ did.

from that same article:

"The Giants certainly don't have the postseason chops to compare with the Phillies, but San Francisco has veterans in Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez and ex-Phillie Pat Burrell"

well now i'm officially scared. SPCA here i come!

Sam, MadBum was one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. he also dials it up to 93-94, whereas Happ topped out at 90. other than their handedness, i see no similarities.

I could see the Giants stealing 1 or 2, but I think the Phillies take the series.

Phillies in 6

Bay - I like the Phils in 6 too.

Happ didn't dial it up a little more than 90 when he wanted/needed to?

I'm pretty sure I remember the 2008 Phillies not hitting basically until Mid-September. People who are crushing this offense is absurd. It's way better than the Giants offense, and way more capable of getting to good pitching. This series may go 6, but that's the max.

If I remember correctly, When the Phillies played the Giants, wasn't it the beginning of the "hitting woes", then when they played again, it was right before they came out of it?

I could obviously be wrong...

Re-posting:

Oh, brother. The hand-wringing has reached all-time proportions.

BAP - do they have pit-bull rescue centers on the Left Coast? If so, I suggest that you GO GET A DOG. You have 5 days left to find one.

Giants win game 1. Beerleaguer implodes.
Phils win series in 6.

who cares if it's a tough or long series. it doesn't matter as long as the phillies win. you don't have to dominate.

Anyone who thinks the Giants' offense compares to the Phillies' offense is certifiable, or needs to go get a dog.

Compare career stats of the two teams players, respectively. Even just this year - when the Phillies suffered from a slew of injuries to key players who are now healthy - the Phils' outscored the Giants by a considerable margin.

The last two years, it was the dodgers who had the best of the pitching, the best bullpen, etc. Replace one nl west club with another.

This might make some people feel better.

Season=Over

I do not fear the Giants big three. I fear the Giants big two + MadBum.


Matt Cain's career splits vs the Phillies:

5 GS, 0-3, 26 IP, 28 H, 21 R. 18 ER, 7 HR, 13 BB, 23 K, 1.577 WHIP, 6.23 ERA

.262 .342 .561 against, .273 BAbip

(At the Zen: 5.29 ERA, 268 .316 .634 against, .250 BAbip - he's actually been better at the Zen then at ATT vs. the Phils)


If Boche give Cain 2 starts vs the Phillies, then the Phils win the series.

OTOH, if Boche sets his rotation thus:

1) Lincecum
2) Sanchez
3) MadBum
4) Cain
5) Lincecum
6) Sanchez
7) MadBum & free for all

then the Giants can win the series.

If Boche goes the conventional way:

1) Lincecum
2) Cain
3) Sanchez
4) MadBum
5) Lincecum
6) Cain
7) Sanchez

then the Phillies will face Cain twice at the Zen.

That = not good for Cain or the Giants.


The Phillies would need to split the two Halladay/Lincecum matchups, and steal onw of the games against either Sanchez or MadBum (which might not be too easy).

But if Boche is foolish enought to pitch Cain twice in this series then he's making the Phillies job that much easier, IMHO.

Nice to see some return to pessimism on this board. The recent "Phils can beat anybody" mood was refreshing but the feeling of respect for an opponent -bordering on dread- is at the heart of my Phillies fan psyche .

Still I will pick Phils in 6.

Hope the WS is against anybody but the Yankees.But I think a rematch is going to happen.

Phils in 6.

Giants take Games 2 and 4.

My prediction of Giants winning Game 2 assumes that Bochy has a brain and puts Sanchez in Game 2, not Cain.

Otherwise, switch Games 2 and 3.

The Giants barely beat the Braves. It was kinda ugly. The only reason the Giants won two of those games was thanks to Brooks Conrad.

If I was confident the Phils would have handled the Braves (and I was) then I have to be pretty confident the Phils can handle the Giants.

Also, I read that mlb.com writeup of the Phils/Giants.

It's really misleading.

Sure, in samll ample sizes the Giants fared better against the Phils big three than the other way around, but still, despite all that, the Phils managed to ouscore the Giants this season.

Phils/Giants 2010:

3 - 3

Phils 29 RS
Giants 27 RS

Heather: The issue is that close games can go either way--see the Giants-Braves series. That could easily have been 3-1 Braves, or a Giants sweep, etc. A whole series of 1-run games is NOT what the Phillies (the better team) wants.

The problem is that, with the way the Phils offense has struggled, a lot of low-scoring close games is what this series shapes up as. And again, that's not what the Phillies want at all, because luck comes so much into play in close, low-scoring games. The better team never wants luck to play a role.

That's really the only thing that worries me. There's no question the Phils are the better team. The issue is that the styles of the two team indicate low-scoring close games, and the better team is subject to an upset in those sorts of games.

You want a bet?

Any bets that Pat Burrell gets a standing O his first time up?

How about Aaron Rowand?


To get back to the game, straight up, their big 3 matches up with ours pretty well. And they have a better bullpen. Our offense, on paper, is better. As is our defense. We have much more postseason experience.

Yeah, this won't be a cakewalk. At all. Of all the teams in the NL the Giants are the group with the best chance of beating us. Fine, people think the odds aren't good.

I disagree. Yes, we have home field advantage. But this is going to be a tight, low scoring series. The Braves may have been beat up going into the NLDS, but they still had a very, very good front 3 in Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hanson, with an excellent bullpen. They just didn't have any offense, mainly due to injury. The Braves were pretty good team.

Yes, Brooks Conrad cost Atlanta one game, but good teams take advantages of mistakes. We did it against the Reds, the Giants did it against the Braves. These guys are dangerous.

Phillies in 7.

Pitcher: ERA, ERA+, xFIP, SIERA

Halladay: 2.44, 165, 2.92, 2.93
Oswalt: 2.76, 143, 3.45, 3.33
Hamels: 3.06, 133, 3.43, 3.19
Blanton: 4.82, 84, 4.06, 4.01

Lincecum: 3.43, 119, 3.21, 3.16
Cain: 3.14, 130, 4.19, 3.90
Sanchez: 3.07, 133, 4.11, 3.70
Bumgarner: 3.00, 136, 4.03, 3.88

I guess then, the real question is whether the Phillies hit this series.

On one hand, they didn't against the Reds, and the Giants' pitching is far better than the Reds' pitching. On the other hand, they're obviously a good offense (3rd in the league in runs despite not being healthy), and have hit in the playoffs before.

The Phillies are masters of deception. That's how they will win this series, yeah deception.

Jack: Yeah, but can they get lucky 4 games out of 7? Maybe they take a game or two, but the Phils are clearly the better team, with tons of playoff experience to boot, and should be able to take care of business.

I'm really looking forward to Sat. Curious to see how Lincecum handles pitching in front of this crowd. He seems like an excitable guy, hopefully the crowd can get into his head.

Look, base on the pitching matchups this series could go either way.

Both pitching staffs are capable of completely shutting down the other team's offense.

One undiscussed topic: The Phillies hit A LOT less HR this season, and relied less on the HR to score.

Perhaps THAT plays out well in this series - the ability to play small ball and manufactue a few runs.

Three words for teh series:

Run, Shane, run!

if roy halladay's 3rd baseman was pushing 300lbs he might have tried striking out 14 too....

p.Red: They don't have to get lucky for 4 games. Even a mediocre team will win on merit 1 or 2 games against a good team (and the Giants are better than mediocre).

The issue is those swing games that could go either way--the ones the Phillies have won the last couple years (Game 4 against the Rockies last year, Game 4 against the Dodgers both years, etc). When you're coming down to 1 run in the 9th inning, one play makes the difference. The better team doesn't want it to get to that--remember, the Dodgers were the better team going into the NLCS last year, at least by record.

Godfather - This isn't their 1st time back or anything but, I think we'll treat them the same way we treated McNabb- Snowballs and batteries. Wait, we didn't do that? But Jemele Hill told me that was what was going to happen.

Did no one see that the Phillies were actually hitting the ball hard this series? These low-scoring games were nothing like their offensive swoons where no one's getting good wood on anything. Of course, those balls could continue not to fall, which would continue to suck. But it's not like the Reds really "shut them down".

"A whole series of 1-run games is NOT what the Phillies (the better team) wants."

The Phillies are 29-17 (.630) in one run games.

The Giants are 28-24 (.538) in one run games.

I'm sure the Phillies will be just fine in one run games, Jack.

The Braves, Reds and Giants are all a bunch of raw fish waiting to be fried by the defending two time NL champion Phillies. The Giants won't know what hit them. They are standing on the tracks watching an oncoming train from Philadelphia heading to the WS. The train won't be stopped by the by the Giants speed bump. Lincecum will be floored. Cain will be syruped. Sanchez will be beached. WFC here we come!

yeah the phillies were the best in baseball in one run games.

The Phillies don't need to hit the ball a lot in the series- just enough behind solid starting pitching is all it takes.

It's going to be a LOOONG week.

Blah, blah, blah...

The same old wet blankets come out of the woodwork to tell us how awesome the other team is and how much we suck. What's new? It's Beerleaguer!

Remember... the Reds were supposed to beat us, too! And we saw how well that turned out.

I'm amused, especially, that the bap believes the Giants offense is more dangerous than the Phils because of "their knack to manufacture runs." Huh?

Phils, largely injured throughout the year, scored 75 more runs than the Giants this year. 75 MORE RUNS!!!!

Phils in 5.

Let's not make the Reds out to be any better than they actually were. Their offensive stats were tremendous, but they slumped down the stretch (14-16 in Sept/Oct) and their record against teams over .500 was putrid. The Giants, on the other hand, went 19-10 in Sept/Oct and had to get past San Diego and a once-surging Colorado team to win the division. If the Phils had trouble putting up runs against Travis Wood, Johnny Cueto, and co., it's not going to get any easier against the likes of Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez. I don't think that the Phils are going to lose this series, but I think it's going to be a much more competitive, nail-biting affair than the previous two NLCS's.

I'm going to guess Phillies in 7. Phils will win 1 of Doc's starts, both of Oswalt's starts against Cain, and 1 of Hamels' starts against Sanchez. They'll lose game 4, with Blanton coming out rusty.

Is there a reason the next round isn't starting on Thursday? MLB making a killing on officially licensed earflap caps?

Everyone seems to forget how dominant the Phillies are at home in the playoffs. They are now 14-3 at home over the past three postseasons (2008-2010). Two of those losses were to the Yankees last year. In other words, the Phillies are 13-1 at home against NL opponents in the playoffs since '08. 13 wins and 1 loss. That is impressive.

Obviously, the Giants have to steal one in Philly to win the series. Realistically, they will need to win two, as I don't see the Phils losing all three in San Fran. Can they do that? Against Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels? I don't think so.

CJ: In no world were the Reds supposed to beat us--almost everyone in the country predicted a Phillies sweep or in 4 games. What are you talking about?

The Phils offense is significantly better than the Giants'. The issue is just that they have struggled to hit the Giants pitching--see this:

Recent History: Dating back to the start of the 2008 season, the Phillies are 9-10 against the Giants, including 6-6 this season. Of those 19 games, they have scored fewer than four runs in 12. They have struggled particularly at ATT Park, where they have lost seven of their last nine while averaging 2.8 runs per game.

Also, the Phillies are 7-2 in one-run playoff games since 2008.

*AHEM*

CJ, if you bother to do some reading, you'll see I predicted Phillies in 4. Mainly because I thought the Reds would get to Oswalt.

Which they did. Then they gave the game away.

Forecast calls for a windy Saturday. Good. The Giants aren't familiar with anything more than a soft breeze.

The Phillies may not blow out the Giants in 10 run games, but I do have faith that they can scratch together enough runs that if H2O pitches like they're capable of, we shouldn't have any problem taking the series. Now, if H2O scuffles, then it is going to be a long series. The Phillies do seem to have a "kill" instinct in the post-season that lets them dance over inferior teams. The only series they've lost in the post season over the past 3 years was to the Yankees--who were a better team that year.

If I have to see the traditional lazy b-cast shot of the people in boats in SF, I would just like to see 6 knock one into the Cove. And please, don't let PtB hit one here.

Phillies in 5. The Phils will win 2 in Philly, the Giants will win one in their home park but then drop 2.

The Phillies offense really is significantly better than the Giants'. Their pitching staff is marginally better. The Phillies don't seem to be intimidated by the Giants' closer.

Jayson Werth has been on a strike-out binge, and Ryan Howard has been slapping singles again, which explains the close games we saw in the NLDS. The Phillies left a lot of men on base. If either of those two gentlemen breaks out of their slump, run production will rise, and they'll win the games with greater than a 1-run margin.

I think pitching will cancel itself out and it's gonna come down to hitting... and the Phils will need to step up their performance if they are to prevail. I still go with Phils in 6 because of the home field advantage.

From b-r.com:


Phils SP vs. current Giants:

Halladay: 164 PA, .269 .299 .314, 6 BB, 34 K, 1 HR.

Hamels: 143 PA, .250 .298 .462, 9 BB, 34 K, 6 HR.

Oswalt: 219 PA, .250 .286 .363, 10 BB, 43 K, 4 HR.

Blanton: 104 PA, .237 .255 .454, 2 BB, 24 K, 5 HR.

Giant SP vs. current Phillies:

Lincencum: 159 PA, .192 .244 .363, 9 BB, 49 K, 6 HR.

Cain: 91 PA, .280 .352 .622, 9 BB, 21 K, 6 HR.

Sanchez: 133 PA, .150 .278 .239, 18 BB, 37 K, 1 HR.

Bumgardner: *Has never faced any of the Phils current players.

"Heather: The issue is that close games can go either way--see the Giants-Braves series. That could easily have been 3-1 Braves, or a Giants sweep, etc. A whole series of 1-run games is NOT what the Phillies (the better team) wants."

Well, that was kind of the point I was trying to make. The games were all very close, and could have gone either way. To me, that means the Giants and Braves were pretty well matched. Neither team blew the other out.

So if the Giants are more or less equal to the Braves in this series, I don't see why I'd fear the Giants any more than I'd fear the Braves.

Does that make sense?

Jack, the Giants have averaged 2.5 runs per game at CBP over the last two years.

It cuts both ways.

"If I have to see the traditional lazy b-cast shot of the people in boats in SF, I would just like to see 6 knock one into the Cove. And please, don't let PtB hit one here."

PtB probably WILL hit one out at CPB...he's still a good hitter and left field is absurdly small. That doesn't mean we won't win the games, just saying to be ready for it.

Which brings up a separate point of why on earth with our left field being so short we don't get more RH power hitters...but that's a topic for a different day.

In the 3 games of the NLDS, the Phillies left 26 runners on base, and batted 5-for-25 with RISP.

The series was not close, and the bats were not dead. They just were not up to team standard.

If the Phillies hit with RISP, they will win.

you people are gonna drive yourselves nuts

Thanks for correcting my typo in my post JW.

Yeah, philwynk.

The Phillies were not really good offensively against the Reds, and still swept them. The Reds are a much better offensive club than the Giants. And we swept them, and it was barely a contest.

To recap, the Phillies played poorly offensively, against a far superior offense than the Giants, and won the series handedly.

Phillies in 4...maybe 5 at worst.

Less concerned about the Phils' offense overall than I am about their ability to hit out in SF. This current bunch simply doesn't hit out there for whatever reason. Career numbers at AT&T Park:

Howard (20 G): .257/.325/.381
Utley (23 G): .236/.327/.382
JRoll (29 G): .231/.268/.423
Ruiz (20 G): .228/.343/.368
Polanco (17 G): .292/.387/.354
Ibanez (6 G): .118/.304/.118
Werth (23 G): .268/.381/.423
Vic (17 G): .320/.346/.440

Polanco hasn't done much in weeks and JRoll made a bunch of weak outs since he has been back. Don't count on either one of them doing much. Both guys are playing hurt & it clearly shows offensively.

Don't need a huge series from Vic but are going to need at least 2 or 3 games where he makes a real impact especially in SF. Phils also need a big from Werth too.

st,
"You people"? I am calling the NAABL.

Honestly, the Giants barely beat the Braves and every game was a dogfight for them. If the Braves were healthy (with Larry, Prado and Jurrgens) they probably win that series in 4. Without terrible defense from Atlanta, we're looking at a Braves win.

We will beat them handily...even with their "amazing pitching". We have 3 Aces too and ours are better.

i thought rollins smoked the ball the other night. one for a hit, one for a line drive out

****"You people"? I am calling the NAABL. ****

The National Association for the Advancement of Beer Leaguers?

CJ - "Remember... the Reds were supposed to beat us, too! And we saw how well that turned out."

Your kidding right? There is nearly no topic on this board on which there is universal agreement and I don't remember a single regular picking the Reds to win the NLDS.

BAP- there's just no use in taking you seriously anymore. You don't use numbers in your arguments. All you do is put forth empty comments like "The offense has stunk for a majority of the year" and "The Giants have a knack for manufacturing runs" and provide absolutely no factual basis for anything you're saying.

The Phils have the best record in one-run games in the MLB. That might point to the fact that they have a knack for scoring when it matters, or 'a knack for manufacturing runs.' Your counterargument is "Well they've stunk for a majority of the year." Aren't you a lawyer? Use some facts for once.

"you people are gonna drive yourselves nuts"

Too late.

Another stupid story line: The statistical effect of six aces in a deck on a poker game.

Here's another: Is a play date being arranged for Jack and Elvis?

I'd like to see another sweep, but I am predicting Phillies in 6, 'cause that means I will get to use my NLCS tickets for that game and be there for the clincher.

yeah, Rollins is hitting the ball ok, though he's obviously not able to run at full speed.....

Jason - "fearful"? Really?

Not me.

Jack, the Phillies are 3 - 3 vs the Giants this season, not 6 - 6.

I say Phillies in 6. Like MG pointed out- for whatever reason the Phillies struggle to score runs out in SF. My guess is they win both games at home. Lose 2 of 3 out in San Fran and then win Game 6 at home for the series.

My prediction:

We will win Games 1 and 2. Close games both, but the Phils pull it out behind two superb pitching performances from the two Roys.

We lose Game 3, after Sanchez shuts down the offense. Hamels pitches great, but the Phils lose 2-1.

In Game 4, the Phils smoke Bumgarner.

Halladay slams the door in game 5 with a CG SO.

Phillies in five.

st - JRoll in Sept/Oct.

16.0% LD
52.0% GB
32.0% FB

1.63 GB/FB ratio. His career % LD is 21.2% and 42.1% so he is hitting alot more GB and not really driving the ball.

Considering he his hitting .143 on GB and .183 on FB it matters.

Phils in 6.

@st

hilarious... first LOL on BL in awhile. I could feel my blood pressure rising as I read the posts and then got yours and burst out.

I love this time of year and am thankful everyday for what the Phils, Phans and city are doing over the past couple years.

Question:
Anyone think that Cole would be better off in a Game 2 at home than in a Game 3? Anyone think that Cain would be better in a Game 3 at home than a Game 2?

Boy, gotta love theIceman doing the verbal smackdown on bap. Ouch.


(awh smirks as he waits for bap's response0.0

JeffS, read my post above on Cain's stats vs. the Phillies. He's been bad vs. the Phils at the Zen, but believe it or not, WORSE at AT&T.

Just like Baker, Bochy's pitching matchups will have a huge factor on this series. Baker messed up in Game 1 with his decision to go with Cueto and it really hurt the Reds. Yeah Halladay had amazing stuff that night but the early lead changed the nature of that game.

Bochy's starting pitching matchups will likely have an even larger impact this series as people noted earlier in this thread. Cholly's only real choice is does he start Blanton in Game 4 and how he handles the bullpen.

Really fascinating to see how Bochy sets his rotation over the next 2 days.

Old Phan: "Phils in 6."

I think this qualifies as fear from you, old coot.

"Anyone think that Cole would be better off in a Game 2 at home than in a Game 3?"

Not really. AT&T will combat any fly ball tendencies that might lead to cheap HRs. Also, Oswalt (overall) has pitched well at CBP.

However, I don't think either decision would be bad. I don't think you can make a mistake putting either Cole or Oswalt #2 or #3.

Iceman, BAP is Beerleaguer's Jonathan Swift. Enjoy it.

I think we win in 6. It will be a tough series, but the Giants aren't beating Halladay twice. I think Oswalt rebounds and you see game four miracle from Blanton.

The Phillies were second in the NL in runs scored this year, despite the offensive slump. Although, some on here think the 500 of the 772 runs came during the first 7 games against the Nats where we won by a combined score 501 to 14.

As for manufacturing runs, we must have done a good job of it...

Phillies hit 166 home runs and scored 772 runs.
Giants hit 162 home runs and scored just 697 runs. We must have hit 4 10 run home runs or something.

Let's recap. Who voted for a sweep in the last series?

Phillies in... 6. I do think we should be alright against Cain. So that gives us only 4 starts to be really worried about, 1 or 2 of which may never occur. And some of those we'd win; Lincecum might beat Halladay but then he might well not. Blanton vs. Bumgarner on paper favors them but he didn't really look that sharp yesterday facing a much worse lineup than ours. Perhaps he's too young to come through in an NLCS.

"Cholly's only real choice is does he start Blanton in Game 4 and how he handles the bullpen"

I'm not sure what you mean. What other choices does he have? You mean Blanton vs. Vance Worley, or Blanton vs. Halladay on 3 days rest?

As far as the latter goes, I don't think that's happening unless the Phils are down 3-0.

Hugh, funny that you said that. I was sure the Phils would easily sweep the Reds, yet I predicted here Phils in 4. I think the Giants will win a game at home, yet I said Phils in 6, so I think you're right.

"He's been bad vs. the Phils at the Zen,"

Which was the basis of my thought that he might not start game 2.


"but believe it or not, WORSE at AT&T."

Hmmmm....this could be an argument to start him in Philly, but also could be an argument for not having him start game 2 IF the Giants lose game 1?

Bochy will be our biggest weapon in this series.

Meyer - Had it.

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