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Wednesday, October 06, 2010

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Roy I wins both starts, Roy II also wins, Cole pitches well but is a victim of low run support.
Phils in 4.

Greg Dobbs bats .400, wins NLDS MVP honors.

It will be interesting to see if the Reds get any votes.

Personally, I think the Reds are a better team than most Phillies fans realize.

Still, the Phillies are the better team, and win a very tough series in 5 games.

Reds are a good team but inexperienced, and not used to the CBP environment. They never had to deal with a home crowd anywhere in their division all season that measures up with what we have here. Hopefully our crowd wont take themselves out of the game if the Reds score some early runs.

Phillies in 5. The Reds will come in loose, steal one of the 1st 2 games. The Reds will win game 3. The Phillies will win games 4 and 5

I couldnt get the poll to work but I said Phils in 3.

I think all 3 games will be close but that we'll win each of them.

~drinks Red Koolaid~

The Reds are better than most realize but are a year ahead of themselves pitching-wise. Still, if the Reds get strong SP, they will be tough as they roll out lefty after lefty against the middle of the order.
I picked the Phils in 4.

re: Salsbury's peice

I thought that was great, altho leaving out the Braves series is pretty criminal... altho I wouldn't take any others out so I guess he shoulda made it the 16 defining moments.

no poll entry for this browser, but put me down for Phils in 3.

I cant wait until we're all jawdropped when the Doc is sitting 96mph the entire playoffs.

Due to the constant sense of impending doom that comes with being a Philly sports fan, I almost never pick my own teams to sweep a playoff series. This time, though, I'm picking the Phils in 3. Looking at the Reds' absurdly poor record against teams over .500, their relatively shaky rotation, their home/away splits (42-39 on the road!), and their record down the stretch (14-16 in Sept/Oct), I just can't see them winning a game. Their record is inflated from playing in a division with the worst teams in baseball, and I think that fact will show loud and clear in this series.

I think Doc pitches possessed tonight, and the cool weather will help the pitchers out, although the wind is supposedly going to be blowing out early in the game. Friday I see more of a home run derby type game. But we should grab both.

Mike: agreed with everything you said - but must point out that 42-39 is actually a perfectly fine road record.

4th best in the NL, 8th in the majors. (TBR was 47-34, tops in the bigs).

In college playoffs, it is double elimination; two losses and you're out. I can't see the Phillies losing in triple elimination to the Reds, or to any of these teams.

It's interesting to see the Giants pondering not even including high priced old fence face (Rowand) in their post season roster. My, how his star is fallen!

Rolen has the "ex-Phils always scare me" factor & Votto is MVP material, so you need to know the Reds are for real.
All playoff teams need to be respected.

But, if the Phils bats don't go cold on us , this could be a year for November baseball.

Rolen does seem to quietly hurt the Phils whenever we see him. Can't take him for granted. But this squad does whiff a whole lot, and we are loaded with strikeout pitchers.

Choochtober begins in 8 hours!!

I went to a Blue Jays - Orioles game a few years back and the kids have been booing Scott Rolen ever since. They say it every time a game is on, whether Scott Rolen is playing or not.

The best teams the Reds played during the year were us and the pre-collapse Cards, and they had a losing record against both. I believe they were 6-12 against the Cards.

Jason, great recent thread headers. I 100% agree about Chooch being the team MVP. He's been Mr. Clutch when you least expect it. A catcher that hits above .300 and is a good defender and game caller is unheard of. Just a few years back, our catcher position was a question mark when Chooch was first penciled in to fill this role. My hat is off to Carlos Ruiz, our BL team MVP!

The way Chooch played in the regular season, I'd say it's "Siempre Octubre."

I think Chooch's game calling is just as valuable if not moreso than his offense. He is always on top of the game the entire time he is in there and knows the second that his pitcher needs to be reigned in. He was like that even before he became such a good hitter. Whenever he has been out for any extended period you can see the difference in how the games are pitched.

While Scott Rolen has .333 .401 .500 HISTORICAL numbers against the Phillies, I went and checked his numbers against CURRENT Phillies pitchers.

"Small sample size alert" against certain pitchers, but his numbers against the current staff are not all that impressive:

176 .238 .296 in 108 PA.

Take a look at it here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/b-pvb.cgi?n1=rolensc01#choice=&throws=&year_game=career&opp_id=PHI&orderby=PA&orderbyb=Name&minPA2=0&minPA=0&orderbydir=DESC&orderbydirb=ASC&n1=rolensc01&as=batter


Agree with LF- Chooch's value to the team this year has been great. It would be hard to imagine being in the playoffs if he wasn't contributing as he has.
I remember a posting calling him the hardest phillie to replace a while back , and I think that says it best.

Rolen has faced every Phillies pitcher at least twice, with the exception of Atonio Bastardo.

Only 7 hours to game time!

My hope is for timely hitting. I'm not worried about our pitching, but I am mindful of how many games we lost 1-0 or 2-0. Still, I pick the Phils in 4. H2O is too good, and our guys know how to get it done in the PS.

Fun story. MLB Network's Greg Amsinger was with Mitch, Bill Ripkin, and Al Leiter yesterday. Brought up the argument "But Halladay's never pitched in the postseason! Who's worried about him?" The three just looked blankly at Greg and each other. Mitch looked behind himself for some invisible worrier. Greg said, "So no concerns?" Al said, "Oh, that was a real question?"

OTOH, the Phillies should try to pitch around Joey Votto every chance they get:

.349 .400 .627 vs. current Phillies pitchers.

Since there is nothing involving this series that hasn't been analyzed to death thanks to the off days, I offer a lighthearted question:

Choochtober
Choochtubre

Which is correct?

Jeff, I guess it depends on which language you want to speak.

Actually, on second thought, I believe it's

"Choochtober"

Also, he's called "Senor Octubre".

In that context I believe both are correct, thought I'll defer to anyone with superior knowledge on the subject.

The worst part of today is that I have to wait until tonight for the game. Sometimes, though, it is nice to think how long we have waited for a Phillies era like this. Who would have though it could happen back in the days of the Vet hosting the all-star game, and Ricky Bo being the sole representative for the hometown 9.

@jason.tp

Good point! Thanks!

I think the Phils are a much better team than most Phils fans realize.

I actually think most Phils fans recognize how good the Reds are. They're a 91 win team that crushed bad teams all year and struggled against good teams. They're a team with a great offense and lots of question marks in their pitching staff.

That's who they are.

I don't like Senor Octubre for Chooch. That's what Jon Miller called Big Papi back when the Sox came back against the Yanks from a 3-0 deficit.

Greene Bros.

Still not used to this. 4 years in the playoffs and even today I can't concentrate to get any work done. The last 2 hours have been like this:

Write a sentence or two...
Check the blogs...
Write a sentence...
Check the news...
Write a sentence...
Check the radio to see if there are any good interviews...
Think about writing a sentence...
Post to BL instead...
....

Even though I'm only 24, I can't help but get nervous when people start bandwagoning on the Phils. Reminds me of all of those heavily favored Eagles teams. I don't like this series one bit.

Plus, their lineup is pretty god dang scary.

Votto is by far the most dangerous hitter on the Reds team. Roy and Roy need to be fairly careful with him. Cole, on the other hand, has had solid success against Votto (.697 OPS).

Small Sample Size Alert!!!!

Only Oswalt has significant experience against Votto (31 PAs). Halladay and Hamels are at 12 and 11 respectively.

We should have kept Baez. He's shut down Votto in his career!!! (0-1 in 1 PA)

Wow, Marcus Hayes is giving the Reds some respect.

he's picking them to win in 5.

It is a new experience to be overly confident about a Phillies team going into the post season, given our history: 3 post season early exits in the 70s, midseason collapse in 1979, heartbreaking WS exit in 1993, and of course 1964. But things can turn on a dime. Remember how bad the Indians were in the days before they built the Jake? Well guess what, they're bad again, two years in a row of 90 plus losses.

'Fun story. MLB Network's Greg Amsinger was with Mitch, Bill Ripkin, and Al Leiter yesterday. Brought up the argument "But Halladay's never pitched in the postseason! Who's worried about him?" The three just looked blankly at Greg and each other. Mitch looked behind himself for some invisible worrier. Greg said, "So no concerns?" Al said, "Oh, that was a real question?" '

Something similar happened on Baseball Tonight after Mariano Rivera's meltdown against the Rangers, where Rivera hit Francoeur with a pitch with the bases loaded to end the game.

Kruk said something along the lines of, "I don't know if you trust this guy in October!"

Bobby V and Garciaparra started laughing and said, "Yeah, good one, John!"

Kruk replied, "No, really, I was being serious."

They all just stared at him. Very awkward moment.

"Wow, Marcus Hayes is giving the Reds some respect.

he's picking them to win in 5."

Maybe just a case of fading the crowd, so you look like a genius if the 15% chance of being right occurs?

The Reds definitely have a chance in every game, just because in small ballparks, Votto and Bruce can hit a couple mistakes out of the yard. Votto, in particular, is terrifying at the plate.

That said, everything else favors the Phils. Phils in 4.

Hayes is an idiot. So many of these guys have started writing stories just to grab attention since they've actually been able to get their mugs on TV with the advent of Comcast DNL. Most of them make predictions just to make news, and I rarely take what any of them say seriously. The only opinions I respect from that crowd come from Didnger, Hagen and Jasner. And maybe Stark when he makes a local appearance. Hoffman, Hayes, Donnelon are all clowns.

Anyone heard anything on the lineup yet?

My bet is Jimmy is leading off, but I certainly hope it's Shane leading off with Jimmy hitting 7th.

Charlie has thrown a curveball, Rollins leading off and Dobbs at cleanup.

The Reds, as a team, have done this against the Phillies' pitchers in 2010:

.267 .323 .404, 6 HR, 26 RBI, .320 BAbip, 285 PA


The Phillies, as a team, have done this against the Reds' pitchers in 2010:

230 .294 .398, 9 HR, 29 RBI, .237 BAbip, 271 PA


Big difference in Babip, slight difference in PA, though I'm not sure the latter means anything.

Anyone else very interested in the lineup for today?

Joe C. that must mean Polly isn't playing, no?

awh: I assume Joe was kidding. You were kidding, right Joe Cowley?

Polly will come off the bench. Blanton will start, saving Doc for Game 3.

I actually am leaning toward the view of putting Shane 7th. With Shane and then Chooch, this gives us a better chance to score in the 2nd inning, maybe?

yes, just kidding. Thought I would try to liven up the final 6.5 hours.

awh: I'm not sure what constitutes as a large enough sample to actually look at BABIP, though I'm guessing 300~ PA isn't enough.

Also, you would have to look at GB, FB, LD rates to see if those numbers had any meaning.

I think we all know the lineup for Game 1:
Rollins
Polanco
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Victorino
Chooch
Halladay

I suppose there's a chance he flips J-Roll and Vic, but I think Charlie believes J-Roll did enough at the plate the last week to move back into leadoff.

Jack, I was kidding too.

I was kidding too?

Was Marcus Hayes sitting across the desk from Ricky Bo when he picked the Reds in 5? If so, what was Ricky's response?

I watched some CSN yesterday, and someone mentioned that Charlie was thinking of switching Polly and Chase in the line up. Anyone else hear that?

Is weather an issue tonight? Is this game definitely going to get in?

Yeah, JRoll's 4 for 18 performance with little to no speed on the bases was impressive enough for me.

****Is weather an issue tonight? Is this game definitely going to get in?****

Knowing the MLB umps, they'll let Doc pitch the top of the 1st and then immediately drag out the tarps for 2.5 hrs. Then Blanton pitches the rest of the way.

After having spent weeks advocating 10 pitchers, of course the 1st game has a chance of getting delayed and/or postponed by rain, which would completely screw us over with a smaller bullpen.

If Doc throws a couple innings and then there's a long delay, we'd be in trouble. If it got postponed to tomorrow, we'd be in real trouble--either have to throw Doc on 3 days rest in Game 4, or lose Blanton out of the bullpen and make him the Game 4 starter.

NEPP, under your 2.5 hour rain delay scenario, who pitches for the Reds? Balanton ought to be able to beat their fill in guy.

The Reds need some breaks to go their way to beat the Phils in this series.

The weather could be one of those breaks.

jack: weather should be fine, I've got blue skies and white clouds about 10 miles NW of the stadium.

Forecast says possible scattered showers late AM/ early PM and then smooth sailing from then on out.

****NEPP, under your 2.5 hour rain delay scenario, who pitches for the Reds? Balanton ought to be able to beat their fill in guy.****

Travis Wood...and he no-hits us this time instead of his previous 1 hit performance.

Phils in 3. Haven't felt this strongly about a series since the NLDS two series ago vs. Brewers. Only way I see the Reds winning this series is if they get some HR power especially from some unlikely sources given that Rolen and Philips have been power-starved the past 2+ months.

JRoll will likely lead off because Cholly is a slave to conformity even thought there is not one statistical point that really merits that choice.

Hurricane Scwartz believes there will be little or no rain in the area. Trust the bowtie.

Doc will sit out the 2.5 hour rain delay and come back to finish the game.
Rich Dubee (who tried to inform Doc he was being lifted) will be located, stuffed in a locker , prior to game 2.
Charlie will just laugh and say that's what Roy meant by it getting funner.

Other thing today:

Game-time shadows at the start of the game. I wonder when home plate will be in the sun/shade.

Could give Volquez a boost early.

MG: The only thing that scares me is that we're playing in small ballparks, and Votto/Bruce could get on a mini-tear and hit a few HRs.

Other than that, the Phils hold every advantage.

Current radar shows the pesky low still spinning across the northeast corridor, but rain mainly in northern PA and New York/Boston.

Joe: Don't forget Mark Kram, he's the biggest moron out of them all.

By the way, if Mike Kern and Anthony Gargano are both on the radio, can anyone tell who is who?

30% chance of rain. Pretty unlikely there will be any game time shadows.

Weather.com has a 30% chance of rain starting around 5pm and running through 8pm. Doesn't look like it will be heavy. Could be distracting, but I think we'll be fine.

A light rain might actually affect the Reds pitcher more... since he's had some control issues this year since returning from TJ surgery.

Yo, new thread.

T-Mac was just spotted entering the ballpark wearing a shower cap. He may know something we don't.

Who are these 19 or so wet blankets? Reds in 4? How?

Heather~

In reading your response to my post in a prior thread Re: Werth.

You make a good point. Werth will go to a championship-caliper team and make a lot of money. That is his right. But this group of Phils is special. I don't know how old you are, but I've been a phan for a long time. I've seen a lot of good and bad Phils teams. This group will probably go to the playoffs a couple of more time before they're through.
No other tem is Phils history can make that claim.

Sometimes, swithing teams for more dollars, or choosing one team over another for less dollars doesn't guarantee anything. Cases in point: Beltre turned down 3/24 from the Phils to sign with the Bosox for 1 year @10 million + an option. He will decline the option and become a FA (Boras is his agent). He will make a ton of money. Jayon Bay signed a more lucrative offer with the Mets and left Boston. I believe Boras is his agent as well. My question to you is - Where are those 2 players playing baseball in Oct? Thy're not. Jeter has won a lot of rings with the Yanks and will be a FA. He will not leave. Guaranteed.

Now my vote on the NLDS. Phils in 4.

Looks like rain, if any won't start until 7pm:


http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/graph/19107

Wed
Oct 6
1 pm
60° F
Precip:
10%


2 pm
62° F
Precip:
10%


3 pm
61° F
Precip:
10%


4 pm
62° F
Precip:
10%


5 pm
61° F
Precip:
10%


6 pm
60° F
Precip:
10%


7 pm
58° F
Precip:
30%


8 pm
56° F
Precip:
30%

Polanco out of lineup with back injury. Valdez at third.

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