Phillies survive, send series home for Game 6

It wasn't easy, but on the strength of their bullpen, and the bat and right arm of Jayson Werth, the Phillies are brining it home to Philadelphia thanks to a 4-2 victory Thursday night. (Getty Images)

Beerleaguer: Jayson Werth, who muscled a key insurance run over the right-field wall for his second home run this series, has essentially been the Phillies most reliable big-run power source of the last two postseasons. His hard hacks have been most refreshing as we continue to watch the rest of the lineup gape at crushable pitches as they travel down the chute. Werth’s defense has also been a revelation, including his throw, and the way he’s expertly navigated a very tricky AT&T Park outfield. ... Taking a look at the pitching, the back of the bullpen has emerged as a key strength again. Ryan Madson, who scratched through 1 2-3 innings the night before and was thought to be unavailable, pitched perhaps the best inning of the series by simply staying away from the 4-5-6 hitters’ power, a novel concept. He got the entire side to go fishing. Meanwhile, Jose Contreras had his splitter working again and has been on roll this postseason, dutifully filling the middle-inning gaps. We'll get to Brad Lidge in a minute.

Halladay injured: From the very first pitch, Roy Halladay didn’t look up to it. Now we know why. According to reports, he suffered a groin injury on a pitch in the second inning and was essentially pitching on one leg. Halladay, who found himself constantly behind in the count and played catch-up with pitches that showed little life, somehow managed to last six and surrendered only the two runs. Watching Ross Gload move into the on-deck circle in the seventh never felt like such a relief. (Talk about a hard-luck on Gload's liner to first).

Here’s what others had to say after the game.

Officiating: “This series has seen some of the worst umpiring ever. Balls and strikes has been an embarrassment. Pablo Sandoval hit the chalk down the line that was called foul, and the Halladay bunt was called fair. Gload beat the throw leading off the ninth inning in Game 4 but was called out, completely changing the complexion of that inning and the game.” – George S.

Exploiting Sandoval: “With Sandoval at third, I cannot believe that neither Victorino nor Rollins have tried to lay down a bunt. Sandoval is a poor fielder, with no range and a scattergun arm. Especially with men on base, and even with two out, a bunt toward third would seem like a good percentage play.” – George S.

Fastballs: “The Phillies do not seem able to hit fastballs any more (when they decide to swing at them). The Giants pitchers have left quite a few high and in the zone and they are not getting punished for it. Brian Wilson has really gotten away with some meatballs, and I hope somebody in that Philly lineup makes him pay. These are not 98 mph lasers on the black, but 88-90 mph pitches in the zone and often on hitters' counts. The Phils are making the Giants pitchers look a lot better than they really are.” – George S.

Lidge deserves respect: “Why Lidge continues to get some much second-guessing in the national media baffles me. Guess who has the better ERA since August 1 - Lidge or Wilson? That's right Lidge. He simply has shown the ability to throw that slider at the knee with great consistency with the exception of Game 1 in this series.” – MG

Manuel outmaneuvered Bochy: “Cholly made a blunder by putting Utley/Howard back-to-back, which loomed later in the game, but Bochy's blunder (pitching Ramirez) loomed even larger tonight. You don't put in a guy who is getting hit like Ramirez in a spot where you desperately need a scoreless inning. Also got away with bringing in Affeldt to turn around Vic.” - MG

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Comments

[GBrettfan]

Of course, we must win tonight & tomorrow first.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

BobbyD - I tend to like your lineup. I'm hoping Howard and Utley find a way to loosen up in front of hte home crowd. Maybe moving them out of their usual spots will do it. To my eyes they're both trying too hard.

[Andy]

I actually am a little disappointed by the Phils. By letting SFG get three wins this quickly they have completely eliminated the perpetual BL argument about whether the upcoming game is a "must win" game.

I feel so let down.

[MG]

Solutions:

1. Conlin is calling for the Phils to bench Howard tonight for Sweeney?! because of his 0 RBIs in the postseason and shoddy defense. I agree with Conlin on Howard's defense which has been pretty horrendous this postseason. He is also king at a ridiculous rate (14 Ks in 28 ABs).

Still, Howard was the only guy to have a good night vs. Sanchez (2 hits, 1 BB), he is still your best power threat besides Werth, and Sweeney isn't an offensive ugprade and likely isn't much of a defensive one either.

If you wanted to possibly argue Gload in place of Howard tonight, that makes a bit more sense but not Sweeney. One of Conlin's weaker ideas in quite some time.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/105572348.html?cmpid=15585797

[Jack]

MG: Basing any decisions on RBIs would be idiotic. Conlin is an idiot.

That said, moving Werth up to #4 in the lineup would make all sorts of sense against Sanchez.

[timr]

Howard's got a higher AVG and OBP than anyone else on the team in this series, and a higher SLG than anyone but Werth, and yet HE'S the guy who should be benched! Not Utley and his .158 average? Especially when Utley's been worse in the field and when the backup behind him has actually played alot this year and maybe could realistically give the team a lift.

Of course, neither guy should really be benched, but this is the kind of double standard in Philly's treatment of Howard and Utley that always bothers me.

[Old Phan]

I'd rather bench Utley for Valdez than Howard for Sweeney, and neither one of those are good options.
I would like to see Sweeney get some ABs.

[MG]

Where is this garbage coming from that JRoll is 'getting his swagger back?'

He has been good in the field but far from what he was in '07-'08. Offensively, he has been a mess. Besides Game 2 of this series, he has done nothing offensively. Lots of 1-2 pitch AB, lunging at offspeed crap and hitting a fair amount of ground balls and weak pop ups, and killing the Phils when it matters the most (1-10 with RISP).

Vic has had a rough postseason too offensively (just as everybody has had) but he had a good game vs. Sanchez at the plate because he was hitting from the right-side.

I hopes Cholly leaves Vic in the leadoff spot tonight and uses the exact same lineup from Game 2 except he starts Francisco in LF & hits him in the 7th hole.

If Ibanez starts tonight and I have have a bad feeling he will because of his 2-hit night in Game 5, it will be a clear mistake. Ibanez was vastly mistmatched by Sanchez in Game 2 and now is 0-9 in his career with 3 BBs vs. Sanchez.

[MG]

Yeah there has been a bit of a double-standard with Howard and Utley. Utley has been terrible this series. Hasn't executed offensively and defensively while Howard is one of the few Phils having some decent ABs/success at the plate despite the Ks.

Hell, the Phils as a team this series are hitting under .200, with almost no power, and no hitting with RISP. Yeah the Giants' pitching is good but it hasn't been this series with the exception of Cain in Game 3, Sanchez the last 2 innings of his start in Game 2 and Lincecum for parts of Game 5.

[MG]

Nice article on the series that mentions the lineup issues both teams have facing including Bochy who really has had to roll the dice alot this series.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AuRR8CZJZzXFB7wG92TdyOk5nYcB?slug=sh-giantslineupnlcs102210

Key stat:

"Yet Phillies manager Charlie Manuel holds a reasonable expectation that his lineup will produce in Game 6 against Giants left-hander Jonathan Sanchez, who can be wild but does his best pitching with runners on base. According to the stat analysts at Inside Edge, opposing batters are 0-for-27 against him with runners on in his last four starts, and 2-for-62 with runners on since Aug. 30"

Given that the Phils' power has almost completely disappeared, they are going to need to get at least a hit or two tonight vs. Sanchez. Also likely going to need some charity from Lady of Limited Control and the Giants' erratic defense because I don't see how this lineup does much damage against Sanchez at all.

[phlipper]

It's interesting, MG, that you say Rollins had a bad series except one game, but use one good game to spin positively on Vic's bad series. Rollins' defense has been key all series - his one error (that turned out not to hurt the team) notwithstanding.

The idea of benching either Howard or Utley is beyond ridiculous. For all the talk about "sample size," so many baseball observers reflexively return to the argument that "Player X should be benched because he hasn't [driven in runs/hit for average/made errors/struck out a lot/etc.) over the past few games.

Utley and Howard have proven to be invaluable players when the Phillies are in the playoffs. The best predictor of how they will do in the rest of the playoffs and/or the next game is their career performance levels.

[timr]

My prediction for tonight: the game will not be close. Either the Phils will blow it open w/ a big inning early, or Oswalt will still not have regained his command, and the Giants will string together a few one or two run innings against him.

[phlipper]

" Yeah the Giants' pitching is good but it hasn't been this series with the exception of Cain in Game 3, Sanchez the last 2 innings of his start in Game 2 and Lincecum for parts of Game 5. "

I also don't understand this, MG. The Giants' pitching has pretty much dominated the Phillies most of the series - just as it did the Braves, and just as it did with ALL NL hitters for over a month.

I think it's reasonable to assume that the Giants' pitching has been "good" when they have gotten hitters out, and that they've also been "good" when the hitters have scored a few runs - but that at those times the hitters have gotten lucky and/or overcome good pitching to hit well.

Unless a pitcher like Lincecum comes out and clearly has nothing like his normal pitches, or if batters are clearly knocking him around, we can assume he's pitching good. Sometimes hitters can score a few runs by virtue of luck or good hitting (i.e., hitting good pitches).

[phlipper]

My prediction is that the Phils will score 4-5 runs in both games (assuming there is a game seven).

I'm thinking that playing at home, being psyched by the do-or-die set up, and by virtue of the law of averages, hitters such as Vic, Chooch, Utley, Ibanez, and Rollins will start looking at least somewhat better at the plate. As long as Oswalt and Hamels don't melt down (unlikely), and can get to the bullpen without giving up more than 3 or 4 runs, I'm thinking two reasonably easy victories.

I just can't get over that as lifelong Phillies fan I continue to be optimistic about games' outcomes.

[Baumer]

Man...

I still have the same Philadelphia pessimism that characterized most Philly fans until the 2008 WFC. For some reason, I feel unbelievably worried about our chances to run off two games at home against these Giants (even with Oswalt and Hamels on the mound)! These San Fran guys just seemed to be dialed in and have this hunger about them...

I hope the home field will do our team some good and change this negative, "on our heels" vibe that surrounds the team.

Time will tell.

Go Phils!

[phlipper]

Baumer - I think the Giants thus far have played over their heads, and the Phillies have underachieved. Hence, my optimism.

Weird.

[Andy]

MG: Lots of 1 and 2 pitch ABs? We noted that SFG has changed their pattern to throwing early FBs against the Phils and then luring them out later in the count with garbage. Shouldn't the Phils adjust and get aggressive? In the last 4 games in ABs of 3 or less pitches Rollins is 5-9. (Which means in ABs of 4 or more pitches he's 0-6 with a walk.)

He also has finally begun trusting his hamstring enough to steal bases.

How much worse is that 1-10 w/RISP than the rest of the team?

[JeffS]

All of this talk (not here - in the paper, on tv, on the radio) about making wholesale changes for this game by benching Utley or Howard, moving the entire lineup around, etc., is almost silly. Sure, you can put a Sweeney or Gload in, and someone might catch a spark, but it is just as likely to backfire horrifically. An elimination game is the most risky time to start experimenting. Valdez would be less of an experiment, but I don't want to be around anyone in a bar when he GIDPs at the wrong time.

At this point I've resigned myself to the view that either this team can dig down deep inside and be great for a stretch, or not. The chance that it can is probably better than the chance that CM will stumble upon a different and novel combination that works.

[Mr. Mack]

I'm hoping that the home field advantage proves to be just that. Besides the crowd getting worked up into a froth, especially with an extra four hours to build up to the climatic first pitch thanks to the Yankees loss, just the familiarity with being at home in the Bank and having the final AB should be enough to give the home team the edge that they need.

Aside from all of that, it would truly suck that UC managed to get the NL the home field advantage in the WFS, thanks to his managing them to their All Star win, only to see the Giants reap the rewards. Honestly, I will not be able to watch the WS without the Phillies (to root for) or the Yankees (to root against).

[Tray]

Conlin is famously a very stupid man.

[JeffS]

Tray: "Conlin is famously a very stupid man."

I'm not so sure about that. I tend to think that he is very smart, to the point of over-thinking everything and throwing out common sense.

[Andy]

Tray - And, very stupidly, a famous man.

[MG]

phlipper - You really have been that impressed by the Giants' starters this series?

Game 1 - Lincecum was alright but pretty hittable and he struggled to hit his spots all night long.

Game 2- Sanchez was erratic from the get-go in but had trouble throwing any of his offspeed stuff for strikes until the 5th inning, and was only topping out at 87 MPH or so by the 4th inning. By the time the 7th inning started, he was topping at 85-86. He only had one clean 1-2-3 inning all night in the 5th.

Game 3- Cain was good and did a nice job with his changeup. Best start of the series by a Giants' starter by far.

Game 4- Bumgarner was good early on but completely became unglued and didn't even go 5.

Game 5 - Lincecum was pretty good all night and was mainly let down by his defense.

So the Giants' starting pitchin which is so vaunted has had basically 2 good starts this series. Their ERA this series is 3.73 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP over 33 1/3 IP. That's solid but far from overwhelming or 'impressive.'

[Andy]

Gosh, in that link, MG, did you catch the line: "if the Giants are to advance, they’ll have to do so in a city where cultural icons tend toward Rocky Balboa and Cheez Whiz."

Cheez Whiz? Who eats Cheez Whiz? Do we ever talk about Cheez Whiz here?

This guy needs some tandy takes and a Black Cherry Wishniak.

[JeffS]

When the crowd (wish I would be there) goes wild against PtB tonight, will the national media realize the context of the confrontation with Roy, or will it just jump on the idea of how ungrateful fans are and how fast they will turn on you, and that J-Roll is a punk for saying what he did?

Mack: "Honestly, I will not be able to watch the WS without the Phillies (to root for) or the Yankees (to root against)."

I would get some sort of sick "I told you so" pleasure out of seeing CL do well (just not against us), but that's a really negative reason to watch.

[The Truth Injection]

Any "solution" that includes- benching Howard is incredibly stupid and not worth the time it took to read it. Benching him would be a horrible move. I know he has 0 RBI's but all year people on here harp about how that's a bad stat because it is dependent on thsoe around you- now we want to throw that out to bash Howard and sit him? Stupid. Howard is your starter, Gload and Sweeney are on the bench and hopefully they get a hit if called upon.

Rollins has struggled at the plate at times but in Game 2 put the nail in the coffin, and has been almost perfect at shortstop, and downright spectacular on some plays. I know MG doesn't like people saying Rollins swagger is back so he will cut him down at every turn but Rollins has contributed in other ways besides the plate this series.

[RK]

There are so many posts so I don't know if anyone has thought of this. But has it occurred to anyone that Rube might prefer elimination to being shut out by CL 2 or 3 times in the WS? I mean wouldn't he have to resign after that?

[Old Phan]

"This guy needs some tandy takes and a Black Cherry Wishniak."

I know I need that.

[Andy]

RK - If C____ L__ throws two shut outs, the second one will be in Texas. Ruben won't even board the flight back to PA.

[phlipper]

MG - "You really have been that impressed by the Giants' starters this series?"

"That impressed?" It depends on if you're speaking relatively or not. I think that on an absolute scale they've pitched well, yes. I don't think that the lack of runs are only because the Phillies' batters suck.

If I compare Lincecum, for example, to his start against the Braves, I could say he hasn't been pitching well. In that came he was obviously completely dominant, and we haven't seen anything like that. But at no point during the NCLS have I thought that he wasn't pitching "good."

It goes back to a frequent debate at Beerleaguer. If you look at the Phils crappy AVG, HRs, OBP - every metric you can think of this series - is it because the hitters have been jumping at bad pitches, passive at the plate, lacking in confidence, "washed up" due to age and therefore unable to get around on fastballs?

Or, do you attribute the poor performance of the second best offense in the NL to "good" pitching (although perhaps not their best pitching) by the (arguably) best pitching staff in the majors?

I look at Wilson, for example, and sometimes think he looks pretty hittable. Then I watch the Phillies strike out one after the other against him and I think that the Phillies' hitters can't hit.

But Wilson has been pretty dominant all year against the entire league. At some point, I feel like I have to think there's an element that comes into play where a Phillies fan defaults to the attitude of "They're a bunch of bums" rather than acknowledging they're facing "good" pitching.

[philwynk]

I suppose it might make a tiny sliver of sense -- certainly not more than that -- to try a lineup like the following IF THIS WERE NOT AN ELIMINATION GAME IN THE POST-SEASON:

Victorino
Polanco
Howard
Werth
Rollins
Utley
Fransisco
Ruiz
pitcher

But this IS an elimination game in the post-season. So, no, fiddling with the line-up is really pretty risky.

[philwynk]

...has it occurred to anyone that Rube might prefer elimination to being shut out by CL 2 or 3 times in the WS? I mean wouldn't he have to resign after that?

Posted by: RK | Saturday, October 23, 2010 at 01:14 PM

If the scenario is that C____ L__ shuts out the Phillies twice, but the Phillies win every other game (there would be no game 7 in that case,) then Rube would face very little danger coming home.

Besides, Rube is perhaps a trifle arrogant and just a little dense, so it's possible that nothing of this sort has occurred to him.

[MG]

Andy - Yeah. I loathe Cheez Whiz and most people I know from the Philly are do to. Definitely not a Philly area icon.

phlipper - The Giants' largely did shut down the Braves lineup but big stinking deal. Here is the Braves' lineup they trotted out in Game 4:

3B Infante
RF Heyward
1B Lee
C McCann
LF Diaz
SS Gonzalez
2B Conrad
CF Ankiel

That is as bad as a 5-8 you will see a playoff team ever trot out in a deciding game and there are two legit hitters in that lineup you have to pitch selectively too - Heyward & McCann.

[philwynk]

PS -- Official disclaimer: I completely made up the part about Rube being arrogant and dense, for a joke. I absolutely do not know the man personally.

[RK]

Yes you are right if we win he and we will be so thrilled will go back to calling him and Charlie genuises again.
So let's win. But...

[Old Phan]

'...has it occurred to anyone that Rube might prefer elimination to being shut out by CL 2 or 3 times in the WS? I mean wouldn't he have to resign after that? "

Any GM that would prefer to lose in the playoffs to avoid possible losses in the WS should not only be fired, he should be euthanized, cremated and his ashes spread over Bill Conlin's house.

[MG]

philipper - Most people don't think it is is always the Phils' hitters fault and Cain got alot of credit on here after his start as he rightfully should have.

The numbers show that the Giants' starting staff hasn't been that great this series. Its been above average and the only two Giants' pitchers this series that have really made the Phils look bad are two relievers - Lopez and Romo. Wilson has done a nice job too.

Now if Sanchez comes out tonight and lays a goose egg on them over 6-7 IP and the Giants' clinch by holding the Phils to 1-2 runs then I might change my mind a bit.

Game 1 - 3 runs
Game 2 - 6 runs
Game 3 - 0 runs
Game 4 - 5 runs
Game 5 - 4 runs

In the games the Phils have scored 4 or more runs this year, they have were 72-15 (.827).

[Bedrosian's Beard]

...has it occurred to anyone that Rube might prefer elimination to being shut out by CL 2 or 3 times in the WS? I mean wouldn't he have to resign after that?

Posted by: RK | Saturday, October 23, 2010 at 01:14 PM

Dumbest thing i've read all day.

[MG]

The only thing Cholly should do tonight's lineup is split up Utley/Howard and start Francisco. If he wants to flip-flop Vic and JRoll in the lineup so JRoll leads off and Vic hits 6th that wouldn't be that much of stretch either.

[Old Phan]

Yo, new thing.

[Tray]

http://crashburnalley.com/2007/11/23/conlins-losing-numbers/

[Iceman]

Anyone that thinks Werth should be batting cleanup against Sanchez when he's 0-15 against him in his career and hitless against lefties in the playoffs is as much of a fool as Conlin.

[Frank]

Tickets to Game 7 and World Series http://tiny.cc/706pb