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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

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Hamels is going to come out guns a-blazing and, as long as he doesn't throw an inside fastball to Cody Ross, should be able to shut down the Giants.

They’ve scored three or fewer runs in San Francisco over their last seven games at AT&T Park.

Not true. Phils were getting held to one run by Lincecum through 8.1 on April 28, but came back to win 7-6 in 11 innings. I remember it was the first real sign of life they showed late in the game this season.

It's also a memorable game because Figgy got the save, right after he re-joined the club, I believe.

"And the Giants posted the second-best home mark in the league, with Cain holding opponents to a .591 OPS at home. Banking on the bat rack would be a mistake."


JW, I must disagree. The Phillies have hit Cain, and, I suspect, will enter this afternoon's contest with a high level of confidence.

There is always the possibility that Cain will catch lightning in a bottle, so, yes, maybe he baffles the Phils, but that hasn't been the history.


I posted his stats vs. the Phils in one of the threads last week, and he actually has a HIGHER ERA against the Phillies in AT&T than he does at the Zen.

Small sample size alert, but still, I suspect the Phils will be confident, and that could lead to some runs.

You are correct, though, when you state that this game may come down to how well hamels pitches, as he has not pitched well at At&T in the past.

MLB mentioned last night that the left center field wall in SF is 55 feet further out than at the Bank. Werth needs to have a 3-double game and Vic needs to lace a triple down the line. Also we need good baserunning again to manufacture the runs that can't go over the fences.

Say what you want about Lee, but Figueroa was the real key to this team's World Series aspirations.

And we just let him go...

J ROll back to the bay area. Could be a good thing too...He is ooozing confidence after that double.

We have better defense and base running, and the Giants have relied on the long ball more than we have lately. I think the part actually favors us.

Should read "Over their last seven games at AT&T Park, they've AVERAGED under three runs."

Joe Cowley, it's unlikely Vic gets a 3B down the line. The corners in Sf are only 309 ft. in Rf and 339 ft. in LF.

It's the alleys in RF that are really deep:

"Dimensions: Left field: 335 feet (2000), 339 feet (2004); left-center: 364 feet (2000), 364 feet (2004); center field: 404 feet (2000), 399 feet (2004); right-center: 420 feet (2000), 421 feet (2004); right field: 307 feet (2000), 309 feet (2004); backstop: 48 feet (2000)."


Link here:

http://www.ballparks.com/baseball/index.htm

All good, JW. Just look through the box score, that was the Madson broken toe game. Good times haha

Put this one in the win column for the Phightin' Phils.

Cody Ross' career vs. Hamels:

.300 (9 for 30)/.323/.733 (yes, that's a 1.056 OPS), 4 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K.

Not too shabby.

Re managing and stress. If managing in tough town beats you down like the president girardi definitely shows it. Manuel on the other hand looks youthful and vigorous. I'm sure the weight loss has helped. But this guy isn't the healthiest man. (does he still have the "bag"?)

But he certainly looks better than girardi.

Cody Ross is a fraud and nearly became a rodeo clown. he is the typical marginal player that enjoys 15 minutes of fame by being thrown 3 cookies in a small ballpark in the post season. he's the baseball card that you stuck in your bike wheel back in the day. Utley and Rollins own Cain and will offset this bum and the rest of their fraudulent lineup. Expect Howard to go off as well, last game was his typical warm-up performance. They better issue a marine warning in right field.

'he certainly looks better than girardi.'

Cholly strikes me as having a clear head, as opposed to Girardi. He also had no predecessor to measure up to with the status and accomplishments of Joe Torre. He's had physical ailments that have nearly killed him but looks as spry as Santa Clause.

I think that generally, a pitchers history in a particular park is more a matter of sample size than anything else. Same with a team's record in a particular part.

The Phils are a better team, and they've been playing better over an extended period of time. That doesn't guarantee a victory, but it's more relevant than Hamels' or the team's history in AT&T.

Does Girardi smoke? Cuz he has the gray pallor of a lifetime heavy smoker.

Last night's performance guaranteed that Lee will be a Yankee next year. No way do the Yanks want to face him in the playoffs again. I only hope the Red Sox get into a bidding war for him.

Back to the Phils... I think Cole will handle Ross. But if Sanoval starts, that bat might be an issue (if he's not rusty). On the other hand, I'd like to see that tub at third, trying to snag a Victorino or Polanco smack down the line.

In Hamels last game in AT&T park, he faced 30 batters over 6 innings. He struck out 10 of those batters, walked 4, and gave up 9 hits. That means that 16 balls were put in play in the field and NINE of them fell for hits.

That is some truly awful luck, and is the reason he gave up 4 runs over 6 innings of work.

Don't expect those results to be duplicated today.

I say the Sox steal away Lee. He is the most effective Yankee killer in history and the best since Schilling, who they also snagged. Not sure how many big salaries they are cutting loose this year but Epstein can make it happen and they will be hungry after this season.

This could be the dangerous trap game of the series (that features odd bounces and plays, more offense than we thought and a negative outcome), what with the daylight, a rabid San Francisco crowd, a potent Hamels we all figure should be strong and the high probability of pitching mastery.

That said, the Phillies of the past three years sense game 3/4 as putaway time. Last year against the Dodgers they turned to Lee, and the offense stomped on a usually effective Hiroki Kuroda. Time to stomp again - this time with a hefty dose of bullet line drives and tailing gappers.

Are the Red Sox done with Ortiz? Is his contract up?

The Sox should cut ties with Ortiz and Drew, and try to trade one of Beckett or Lackey.

Bring in Lee and Werth, and that team will right back at the top of the AL East standings.

Speaking of what's in the mouths of players and coaches, my wife, who is new to baseball, can't stop remarking each time I'm watching a game about the chewing and spitting that virtually every single player takes part in. She always wants to know what's in their mouths. I tell her chewing tobacco, gum, sunflower seeds. Am I missing anything???

Not sure about Ortiz, I know Lowell is retiring so his contract must be up.

Lil' Ollie, my g/f makes the same remarks about Charlie. All that chewing, even during the anthem, must lead to some TMJ or other jaw issues down the road. Does he chew in the off season as well?

No amount of chewing, spitting, smoking, or crotch scratching and grabbing will top the 1993 season and post season.

Not just Charlie. Oswalt chews gum while he's pitching and hitting. They all have something in their mouths these days. It can't all be tobacco, but there's a lot of spitting.

Nobody....NO BODY....spits more on the mound then Matt Garza. He is to the mound what Dykstra was to center field.

Fatalotti, I agree.

Weth AND Lee will put the Bosox in the drivers's seat.

Drew has one more year on his deal(14M), and Ortiz has an option(12.5M Team Option). Ortiz has been prickly and has stated that he probably won't be back unless they exercize the option.

Still, for a team that posted a one-time fee of $50MM for Dice-K, eating some of Drew's money for one year to replace him with Werth might be doable.

Also, the Bosox want to bring back Victor Martinez (7.7M in 2010), so they've got their work cut out for them.

Fata, one option for the Bosox is to let Ortiz walk and sign Werth. They could then move Drew to DH for a year and then try to sign someone else.

Also, I forgot that they need to do something about 3B and Adrian Beltre ($5M Player Option, $1M Buyout Buyout vests with 575 PA in 2010, Option increases to $10M with 640 PA in 2010 ), who had 641 PA in 2010. He could exercize his player option for 10MM, but it's more likely he'll seek a long-term deal somewhere.

What are the odds that the Yankees let Lee go to the Bosox? Unless they decide they just don't want him for some reason (or he decides to stay with Texas) Yankees will give him whatever he wants. Besides, if TB cuts payroll and lets a bunch of guys go as has been purported, the Sox will be in contention without spending 9 zillion dollars on Lee and Werth. Would be fun to see, though.

who's the frontrunner for manager of the year?

you think the sportswriters will pick bobby cox? bud black? charlie?

I hope Rich Dubee has prepared a game plan for Cody Ross tonight for Cole. That man should receive nothing but a healthy diet of breaking balls and Cole's dominant change up all night, and nothing else.

The Yankees days of giving a player "whatever he wants" died with the Boss. They lost out on Doc, Oswalt, and Lee in the past couple of years, and signed marginal players at the deadline like Berkman and Kearns. They're best pickup in the offseason was Granderson who is on the downside but fit nicely with that stadium. They paid Burnett $80 million.

I'm anxious to see how Burnett pitches tonight. He hasn't been able to hit the broad side of a barn for a strike, could spell big trouble for the Yankees, though I'm not complaining.

The Youk can play 3rd, and they can sign some cheapy for 1st, or let Drew play 1st.

Or let Martinez play 1st, and sign a stopgap catcher who is good defensively.

An infield with Martinez, Youk and Pedroia and an outfield with Werth and Jacoby, and a pitching staff of Lee/Lester/Beckett or Lackey/DiceK ain't too shabby.

Interesting. (SSSA)

Cliff Lee has a 4.79 ERA vs. the Bosox at Fenway, and a 4.06 ERA overall vs. the Bosox.

He also has a 2.40 ERA at Yankee Stadium vs. the Yanks, and a 4.42 ERA vs. the Yankees overall.

If you're the Bosox you probably don't 'fear' him, but if you're the Yankees you are probably scared to death if he ends up in Boston.

Smart money says the Yankees are the more motivated suitor.

If you think that Cody Ross is just a marginal player, look again. Granted, he's not The Natural that we're seeing here, but he had a couple of pretty good years in Florida. And don't diss the guy who might be our right fielder next year.

Z, Burnett will probably be very poor tonight, but the Yankees will probably offset his outing, because after getting humiliated last night, they are probably going to tee off on Hunter tonight.

Should be a high scoring affair tonight. The Rangers better not let the Yankees have that late lead. Game over.

Z. Mac, yes, no fastballs ,except maybe low and away, and definitely up and in. Oswalt did it once to him, but he should have done it again to back him off of the plate more.

Yankees look old and tired.
Good riddance to them.

awh, a lot of Lee's numbers are skewed by his earlier years. Lee is a different pitcher over the past 3 years then he was before.

I don't know how those BoSox and Yankees games are distributed, but it'd be interesting to see what he's done against the two teams since 2008.

Z McCarthy: Your Delta Tau Chai name is Z-Bag.

Joe Cowley, the Yankees may feel some constraint because of the huge amount of debt they have, but they can probably still make the best offer for Lee.

Of course, the new owners of the Rangers have not tipped their hand, and Ryan has said they want him back.

The Red Sox have some constraints which I posted above.

Awh: I know he's Ryan's kind of pitcher it would be nice to see the Rangers retain him and prevent him from going to either Boston or the Yanks.

"And don't diss the guy who might be our right fielder next year."

STHS...WRONG.

Ross is not a free agent until AFTER the 2011 season. Based on his performance, SF would be insane to deal him away, especially to the Phillies.

Fata, (SSSA) stands for "small sample size alert".

Lee has been a different pitcher since 2008, we agree.

My point in posting the numbers is that IMHO, the Yankees have more to fear from Lee going to Boston than the Bosax have to fear from his being in the Bronx.

Thanks, awh. I read it wrong. Ross is arb eligible in 2011, not a FA.

Cowley, every player you named there, save Burnett, was not a free agent. Yankees lost on Doc, Lee and Oswalt because the teams they were trading with weren't as intersting in the Yankees' trading chips as the teams they eventually dealt with.

Last year, Granderson, Lackey, Figgins and Beltre were the biggest names available. I'm not surprised that the Yankees weren't slobbering over Lackey, and they didn't need Figgins or Beltre.

The last time there were HUGE names on the free agent market, Teixeira and CC both ended up in NY with MASSIVE contracts.

Also, can you blame the Yankees for not going nuts last year? As things were at the end of last year, the biggest threat to the Yankees this year was the Phillies, and they had just beaten them. Everyone figured the Yankees laid back a little last year because they were waiting for this offseason so they could target Lee. They'v ehad their eyes on Lee ever since he b!tch slapped them in game 1 of the WS last year, and if you don't think they will do whatever it takes to get him now, you're crazy.

Lee will be a Yankee next year unless the Rangers offer him half the state of Texas.

Joe Cowley: You're confusing trades with FA signings.

The Yankees have been far more reluctant to trade away their young prospects for players (losing out on Santana, Halladay, Lee, etc) over the last couple of years. You don't "sign" guys like Berkman at the deadline--you trade for them.

You do, however, sign free agents, and by no means have the Yankees shied away from doing this (see Sabathia, Tex, Burnett). Considering Lee will be a FA, I presume they will basically hand him a blank check.

Didn't know what SSSA meant, awh. Sorry.

awh: Ross could be non-tendered, which led to the speculation about the Phils picking him up. Despite his playoff performance, he was pretty bad this season, and is due for a raise up to near $6 million in arbitration.

If the Giants plan on making him their everyday starter in RF, then they will keep him. You generally try and avoid paying $6 mill for a 4th outfielder, however, which is what he was for most of the regular season.

I guess my point is that the Yankees arent necessarily a lock to land Lee. In fact I would venture to say that at this point he goes to Boston or Texas retains him. Remember his high-maintenance reputation, he loves to play the free-agent game.

Another long shot would be the Mets. I dont think they could pull it off but they need a big off-season splash to fill that stadium, and would love to screw the Yanks in the process. Plus we would have to face him all season.

I believe there was speculation that the Phils were looking at him this season.

"Remember his high-maintenance reputation,"

I don't remember that at all, Joe. Where did you get this information?

From all accounts, Lee is a soft spoken, self-effacing, humble, hard working pitcher, who fits in greatly with his teammates, and does whatever is asked of him by his managers and teammates.

That's ALL that I've ever heard about him. What are your sources that make him out as this "high maintenenace prima donna" player?

Anybody with brains and money would take a look at signing Cliff Lee. I bet the Nats will try to land him as well, but don't see him going to DC.

FWIW: I wish the Cliff Lee is "high maintenance" stuff would go away. What is the evidence of that?

Jack, good points on Ross, but with his history as a Phillie killer (16 HR in 249 PA), they may keep him around just in case they play the Phils in the postseason again. As stretch, to be sure, but stranger things have happened (Barry Zito's contract, for one).

It appears as though Cody Ross apparently likes it in San Fransisco.


http://att.si.mlogic.mobi/news/mlb_sports/tr_mlb_sports/detail/2971079

The Giants might be able to avoid the $6M pay day for Ross if they sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal. Ross may see the alternative as being non-tendered... and if the Giants say they'll make him an every day player, he may bite.

The only thing "high-maintenance" about Cliff Lee was his agent... who apparently made it clear that Cliff would be hitting the free agent market and would be expecting CC money.

Cliff seems to be a good guy... and his Phillies teammates liked him.

I think we should hope that Cody Ross remains the Giants starter for the next few years, b/c he is very average. Otherwise, I could see the Giants having interest in Werth.

Wanting to get paid top-dollar for your services is not high maintenance. It's financially sound, great for Lee, great ofr his family and great for his children's futures.

I hope he gets as much money as he possibly can.

After what he dealt with with his son nearly dying before he even reached the age of one, Lee should go after as much money as possibly can, so he can do whatever he can to give his kid every opportunity later in life.

Lee's parting of the ways with the Phillies and his near-signing with the Yankees indicate that he is as high maintenance as it gets when it comes to fielding offers. I understand he was the second coming of Cy Young when he was here and is pitching freakishly well these days, but let's not paint this guy out to be all-omnipotent. Both the Phils and Yanks front office left negotiations with Lee having had a bad taste in their mouths, and that's a fact. The guy has been with 4 teams in 3 seasons and will go where the money leads him. Given all that he's still a great pitcher.

"Both the Phils and Yanks front office left negotiations with Lee having had a bad taste in their mouths, and that's a fact."

Sources?

"Lee's parting of the ways with the Phillies and his near-signing with the Yankees indicate that he is as high maintenance as it gets when it comes to fielding offers."

I don't even get the logic in this statement.

We'll see how great the love is for Lee if the last image of 2010 is him hoisting the World Series trophy at the Bank after shutting us down in Game 7.

I hope Lee goes to the Royals and Werth to the Diamondbacks. I'm sick of the same old teams getting all the big names. That is assuming they are not the Phillies of course. I know it won't ever change, but damn, I feel sorry for fans of the disadvantaged teams. And we remember what it feels like too. How does any kid in Pittsburgh become a baseball fan these days. They have absolutely no hope. Sucks.

When was his "near signing" with the Yankees? Again, that was a potential trade that the Mariners GM decided to back away from and ship him to Texas instead.

The Phils had such a bad taste in their mouth that they considered trading for him a couple of months ago.

If that happens, Joe, I'll be extremely upset and disappointed with a season that didn't end in a WS championship, but I won't start making crap up about him, and denigrating his name just to make myself feel better about his not being on the team.

I'm more than satisfied with a guy like Halladay who could have gone anywhere he wanted and been wined and dined in the offseason, but had his mind set on Philadelphia from day one because we're a winning team. Far cry from signing with a 100-loss train wreck like the Mariners as a stepping stone to bigger bucks. And all he has given us is a perfect game, no-hitter in the playoffs, a Cy Young Award and most likely another ring. No tears shed for Lee here.

I'm enjoying Joe's irrational hate for C___ L___. It is definitely making this day pass quickly while waiting for the game at 4!

Joe: Cliff Lee was TRADED to the Mariners, not signed by them. He could've tried to refuse to go to them, but he went with it.

Hell, i'm thrilled with Halladay and Oswalt, and am comfortable with the Lee move(s).

Cliify got traded to Seattle. He didn't sign with them.

Sorry to bust up the daily Cliff Lee thread with something related to the huge game today, but...

I read somewhere that the Giants were considering replacing Torres (who's having an awful PS and just hasn't been the same since his appendectomy) with Rowand. I'll believe it when I see it, but it would be interesting to see old Rowand--who barely made the roster for this series--try to catch lightning in a bottle against us.

Have you ever seen a team with such a fluid lineup this far into the PS? (2B, 3B, CF, SS...and till last week, RF).

Joe, you're dense, and I'm sure none of this is going to get through, but I'll say it anyway.

lee didn't go to Seattle for the big bucks, you dimwit. Lee is still making the same money from his contract that he signed back when he was an Indian. He made $9 M this year, which is a lot less than Doc made this year. Yes, Doc took a below market contract to come here, but he's going to be getting $20 M a year for 4 years after this year. Let's not act like he's playing for sticks of Joe Bazooka gum. He's getting paid hansomely.

Lee didn't demand to go to Seattle or Texas or even Philadelphia last year. He was TRADED, and he calmly and without provocation, went to each team, and pitched admirably for EACH AND EVERY TEAM.

Lee will end up going to a winner, no matter who signs him next year, so the notion that he's just following the money, and doesn't care about being on a winning team is specious. If he signs with the Yankees, he'd be making boatloads of money, and he'd be joining the most winningest team in all of sport's history (in any major sport!!).

And you'd begrudge him for doing that? How could you? Would you turn down $27 M and a chance to play for a team that is a virtual mortal lock to make the postseason every year to play for another team for less money and less opportunity to play in the postseason.

I love that Doc chose to play here for less money and a chance to play in the postseason, but if the opportunity to take more money and have just as good a chance to make the postseason was presented by the Yankees, I bet he would have taken that, or at least he would have been a fool not to.

Is there a game today?

Joe: You really don't understand the difference between a player being traded and a player signing a FA contract, do you?

Remember when Joe Cowley was railing hard about Werth and couldn't wait for him to leave in the offseason?

"I'm more than satisfied with a guy like Halladay who could have gone anywhere he wanted and been wined and dined in the offseason, but had his mind set on Philadelphia from day one because we're a winning team. "

Joe - I disagree with most of what you wrote in this thread - but I'm (sort of) in agreement here.

We really don't know whether or not Lee might have taken less to be with a winning team, or specifically with the Phils, and we don't know whether Halladay might have taken less to go to a different contending team, but for me the bottom line is that I just don't get how any Philly fan, who was with this team through decades of complete futility, could possible waste their time hand-wringing when the team has Doc, Oswalt, and Hamels as 1-3 in the rotation.

Just goes to show how quickly fans can get greedy and build a sense of entitlement. It makes you understand how Yankees fans can be so obnoxious.

I really hope the Giants turn to Rowand. He's a downgrade defensively and he's, at best, a lateral move offensively. He's been TERRIBLE at the plate for two years.

Yo, The Theory:

Any possibility that one can be comfortable with the C____ L__ trade and the current rotation, without "irrational hate?"

Just curious.

BB, actually no, I guess it's just one of those computer simulations. The box score will be posted later in the day, just for kicks.

FWIW, talk radio out here yesterday filled with SF fans complaining about Buck/McC's "bias."

Joe C, I happen to agree with your disdain for the "Cliff Lee Lovefest" that takes over this board from time to time(I am on record as opposing the trade to Seattle), but dude, you need to stop hitting the bottle.

At the very least, when discussing a player, at least get the facts straight.

He's moved around because he was TRADED - as in, he had no choice.

He does not, to my knowledge, have a no-trade clause. Teams have traded him to get younger players and prospects. Period.

Would I rather have Halladay at 4 yrs/$69 million [the Phillies cost] than Lee at 8 yrs/$149 million (ass-u-ming he signs for 7/140 after the season)?

Sure I would.

But I still think Lee's a great pitcher, and I sure don't like the prospect of the Phillies having to potentially face him in the WS.

It's the most important game of the season.... and people are posting about Cliff Lee?

Really?

Let's just say that it is unusual for a guy of Lee's caliber to play for 4 teams in 2 years with a possibility of team #5 coming up next season. It doesn't mean he's Beelzebub, however.

Yeah, CJ, i think it wd be a mistake too. Torres is bound to get his groove back one of these games, and Cody Ruth notwithstanding, a healthy Torres is the catalyst for their offense. (It's not for nothing that his teammates voted him for the Willie Mac Award.)

I'm amazed at how much they tinker with their order from game to game based on the previous game's performances.

There are lots of situations where I would, if I were Hamels, pitch Cody "The Evil Gremlin" Ross inside. Two outs nobody on. A guy on second and one or two outs. A few more.

But it would need to be really inside.

Extremely inside.

Inside Ross's back effin pocket.

Today's Line-up:

Rollins
Polly
Utley
Howard
Werth
Ibanez
Victorino
Ruiz
Hamels.....


I hope Charlie knows what he is doing...

Kruk was saying that Torres may be struggling because it's so late in the season, and he's swing a bat that way just shy of a metric ton (seriously, he apparently swings the heaviest bat in the majors).

Any wonder why he wasn't even close to those tailing fastballs by Oswalt.

Re: lineup.

Oh boy, cue the Rollins/Charlie whining.

Cliff Lee is the second coming and all, but the bill of his cap is just a little suspicious, isn't it?

If Bochy managed the Phils, Valdez would have started gm 2 at SS, BenFran in left, and Dom in RF with Werth in CF.

Wait, does Bochy post on BL?

PalyChris: So what you are saying confirms what I've felt for a while now. That is that all fans of their local team find the national broadcasting crew to be "biased" against their team.

BTW, I heard Cliff Lee kicked puppies while he was here and took candy from babies. What a jerk.

One hit and Rollins is back to the top of the order? Against a righty, no less? Must have finally kicked that hamstring issue.

Ugh, Rollins back in the leadoff spot...

That's not good news, as far as I'm concerned.

Braves released Milky Cabrera

Spitz, have you ever watched Lee pitch?

He touches the rosin bag often during the game, and after every pitch, he adjust his hat by the bill, and then by the back of the cap.

That's where the marks coem from. Blanton does the same thing, and has large marks on his cap, as well.

Should we be suspicious of Blanton?

Fat, I think his timing's off because he had surgery in mid-September. He wasn't playing tired before he went down, and he's had a lot of time off for a month now (between the surgery and the PS schedule).

Good point Paly.

Still swinging a friggin' heavy stick, though.

Melky Cabrera: KARMA.

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