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Tuesday, October 19, 2010


Ross moved from 8 to 6 and now to 5. Somehow this doesn't scare me much.

see flipper is again trying to alter reality, his favorite hobby.

Please view this clip and tell me that Torres throw and Huff's reception of the relay and his turn and throw were good. Anyone with eyes can see that Posey was in FRONT of homeplate to get the weak and late throw. Posey had no chance to get Oswalt because of Torres initial throw (which had no chance of getting to the plate without bouncing) and then Huff's poorly positioned turn and relay as numerous posters noted in the earlier thread.

Once again, phlipper/flipper/etc. just makes stuff up and then calls me the liar.

As long as Hamels doesnt try to sneak a fastball by Ross, we should be fine. Or perhaps try a cutter that doesnt cut enough...that would likely be grooved too.

Anyone worried about the Hamels-in-a-day-game situation?

@clout -- I'll go out on a limb and say MG is

No...Hamels has a 3.34 ERA in 15 day games this year.

He'll be fine.

I'm reposting this...because I liked it. It's Phil Sheridan's work:

Thanks to these Phillies, an entire region believes its beloved baseball team can step out on the field and win and win and win. With one championship delivered, one just missed and another in their sights, these Phillies have transformed the way a city thinks of its baseball franchise and just maybe of itself.

The transformation is so thorough, so complete, it has become too easy to forget where it began: in the daring imagination and fearless voice of one James C. Rollins. It was the little shortstop with the big ideas who first declared the Phillies "the team to beat" in the National League East, who predicted a World Series title and meant it.

Rollins stood among the Flat Earthers who expected disappointment and pain and pronounced the world round. Then he invited all comers to join him for a ride to the far shore.

Read more:


Careful. There is way too much positivity on this board right now.

Remember what happened with all the positivity for Game 1 and all the negativity for Game 2?

Doing my part: I think the Phillies could easily lose this game. Matt Cain is a great pitcher pitching in a park we suck at. The offense showed a flash of life on Sunday, but a lot of that big inning was due to Bochy mismanagement. He shouldn't have sent Sanchez out to begin with, and then to bring in Casilla, who is already a bit wild, with the bases loaded, was asking for trouble. Bochy should have brought in Wilson...and then we probably would have been up by just 2 going into the 9th.

No, our offense is still not out of its doldrums yet.

Cole Hamels I am still worried about, as this is a day game (which he has historically not been good at) as well as at a park where he hasn't done well.

Combine a possibly shaky Hamels with a still-struggling offense, and I am sensing a potential loss.

There, I did my part.

Hamels is like Bill Compton. I hope he sucks Sookie's (or Heidi's) blood before the game so he can pitch today.

Also sunset time in SF is scheduled for 6:26pm.

Heather, agreed. I would say the Giants should be favored in this game. Cain is just as good as Hamels (if not better than day Hamels) and the Giants bats will get a big boost from the home crowd.

Also, Cain has a 642 OPS against during the day in his career. Hamels has a 758 OPS against during the day in his career.

I'm hoping for a win, but fully expecting a loss today. Get focused Fat Joe - season hangs on you tomorrow!

Clout - I suspect you were trying to stir up another created controversy so you could look smart. You needn't. We all know how smart you are.

Cole has been slightly better in the day this season than at night. Everyone knows it. And most everyone attributes it to his improved cutter, which keeps the hitters off his change. Apparently, his change can exist all on its own under the lights. But it needed the cutter to protect it from sunlight.

Try another controversy. Maybe suggest that Rube Jr. shouldn't have traded Cliffie. That's a good one. And after last night, I think we saw why he shouldn't have. Over an entire season, no doubt Roy Halladay is the man. But in a short series, while Roy may be very good to great with some mediocre thrown in, Cliff appears to raise his game a whole lot.

In fact, I saw Koufax and Gibson pitch in the WS. And if you'd given Cliff Lee the higher mound that those guys had, he might be working on multiple post season no hitters right about now. Discuss.

Ak: "Discuss". No. Please go back and read the last thread or two about Cliff Lee if you need some of that.

****Cole has been slightly better in the day this season than at night. Everyone knows it.****

Actually, while he was for much of the year, most of his Sept starts were night games so his night numbers were a bit better overall at teh end. Either way, its a complte non-issue.

Good god that Giants lineup looks awful. Phils got this.

Love the Sheridan quote.
Initially, I felt about today's game like I did about the first game of this series when I was sure Halladay would dominate, so by that logic, I am now quite worried about the outcome today. I mean, that is what's great about baseball, and playoff baseball in particular--the margins for error are so thin, anything can happen. Here's hoping Hamels and the Phils' bats stay on the right side of that margin this afternoon.

Yeah, BB. I know. It was meant to point out just how lame Clout's attempt at controversy creating was. I guess it was too subtle?

How about this one. Why not sign Cliff Lee for 6 years and 120 million after the season? Would he take slightly less to pitch with the other three aces? Rube could S---can the bullpen almost entirely. A set up guy and a closer would be all that's necessary. Eat half of Raul's salary and send him to the AL to dh. Put Brown in right and Francisco in left.

Would there be enough money in the payroll?

If needed, have Maddog and Lidge backed up by Worley, Baez (can't get rid of the contract) Bastardo, Defratus, KK (assuming they can't get rid of Blanton's contract and he has to stay.)

Or better yet, eat a couple million of Blanton's contract and trade him for anything and let Worley and KK fight it out for the fifth starter.

Oh, and you can subtract the cost of a million plus for the draft pick we lose for Cliff. The Phillies would blow that pick anyway.

How about we discuss the rumored game that starts in 2 hrs? I hope it's filled with bunts and bad relay throws.

defensively, how much of a difference do you think the switch from torres to rowand will make? I would think even with his bat struggles you would leave torres in at home for his defense.

BB: Don't forget a lack of replays of key, bases-clearing doubles.

****Get focused Fat Joe - season hangs on you tomorrow!****

What kind of comment is that? We've already lost this game before setting foot on the field?? Did half the lineup go down with the flu?

Sometimes I wonder why some people on this blog even enjoy sports. I tell people my favorite tv show is the ultimate reality series -- baseball. I love the game because it is not scripted and at any moment you could be watching history. It's one thing to engage in analysis and make your predictions, and maybe I'm being harsh, but to have already concluded the game has been lost is pretty ridiculous.

That much talent in one rotation? Doc, Oswalt, Lee, Hamels.... that would end life as we know it due to a critical mass of awesome.

cut_fastball, just to be clear, my insults were in no way meant to be used a debate tactic. My insults were meant solely as insults.

As far as debate tactics, I covered my bases when I completely obliterated your contrived and irrational beliefs about Cliff Lee not wanting to pitch on short rest, because you heard it on WIP or read it in some half-baked sports article.

You don't like Cliff Lee, fine. But don't make sh!t up about why you don't like him. You don't want to extol the virtues of Cliff Lee's performance this postseason, then don't, but until Jason Weitzel kicks me off this blog for talking about non-Phillies, and their historic baseball accomplishments, then I will continue to comment on the Cliff Lees and the Mariano Riveras and the Josh Hamiltons of this world.

I post a damn lot about Phillies players, and my allegiances are not in doubt one bit. But, what Cliff Lee is doing right now is historic. He's basically matching Koufax's postseason record that has been the litmus test against which all other postseason pitchers have been judged. Would you start spewing hatred about Koufax if I started singing his praises?

You don't care about what Cliff's doing, great, but if you start posting ridiculous stuff about him, I'm going to call you out on it.

Does convincing people you are legitimately conceding today's game help the chances at a BL Reverse jinx?

mfranknba tweets:

Manuel says if he does use Halladay on 3 days' rest (and he didn't say he would), then Oswalt and Hamels would also pitch on 3 days' rest

I have found the Cliff Lee discussions of the last few hours a good diversion from both my usual angst mixed with excitement leading up to a Phillies playoff game. And btw - I will always believe Lee when he said in his first comments right after the trade and also at his his first Seattle press conference - that he had hoped to be a Phillie for the rest of his career. In the middle of an article this week in the Inquirer it stated that he still follows the Phillies season and that he again said that playing with his teammates on the Phillies was awesome. Mike Sweeney when he was picked up by the Phillies said Lee was always talking when they were together on the Mariners about how much fun it is to play in Philadelphia. I know he's a great talent who has learned the art of pitching. I think he's a nice guy as well.
Fortunately we have maybe the second best lefthander in baseball pitching for us today - Cole Hamels. Maybe he doesn't have the best stats in his career against the Giants but Cole in October 2010 is different from the Cole Hamels of the past. He's better! I don't know the odds today but I almost think the Giants should be slight favs playing at home with Cain pitching. That's cool. I think the Phils are a confident team who relish a challenge and being in the rare position of perhaps an underdog. They're gonna get it done today!!

Is Cliff Lee pitching today? He sure gets alot of mention here for a guy who's on the other side of the damn continent from the Phils. How about we discuss this Cain character? I like him to leave a ball or two up to the wrong guys. What do they call it when a homer lands in the bay? I'm hoping for a couple of those.

Will Jimmy hit now that he's had that double and will be playing near home?

Will Cole keep Ross from hitting a HR? (I know Fata's given his opinion of Yes.)

How does Pat Burrell cover all that ground in LF? And with Rowand in CF, how will they cover that side of the field well? Can the Phils direct their hits to left-center or center-left?

Question - Does Cain get rattled or he a rather cool customer on the mound? Can he pitch smartly through a game when he doesn't have his A-stuff?

I checked the Saturday TV schedule and the LSU - Auburn NCAA football game is scheduled at the same time as a sixth game in this series, therefore, the Phillies need to sweep all three games in SF, so I can watch LSU. (I do have two TVs!)

NEPP -- in the previous thread you posited that bochy's start of rowand was somewhat curious. it is indeed, looking at his splits, especially this year.

rowand is 3/15 lifetime vs cole and is hitting lhp at this level for 2010: 211/292/389

i think bochy just has no confidence in torres and rowand is their only other cf option

I only hope we have our share of the LSU good fortune at the end of games!

Why did the giAnts hold back on playing "Old Fence Face" in Philly? He is worse than his replacement, so playing Rowand will benefit the Phillies.

Cain will be at home, so unless he's in really serious trouble, I doubt he'll get rattled.

Cole Hamels just need to be careful of the cutter in on the hands to Ross. If he leaves it out over the plate, it may take a ride.

Maybe it's not considered good pitching but I hope Cody Ross sees a steady diet of outside and near outside pitches. If he does something with them, then it's back to the drawing board.

That Giants line-up stinks on paper.

Count me as nervous about this game (though I'm nervous about every game).

I think people on this board were ridiculously overconfident before the series, certainly before Game 1, and apparently are now back to being way overconfident.

This game could go either way. Cain and Hamels are pretty even, and though the Phils' lineup is better, a couple breaks here or there could go the Giants' way and if Cain pitches well, that might be all he needs. Game 1 should have taught fans that.

I still like the Phils to find a way to win the series, but people were crazy when they were predicting an easy Phils sweep, and apparently are still crazy.

I can't tell who's legitimately concerned anymore and who is just playing it up for the BL Reverse jinx.

p.Red: BL is just a figment of your imagination anyway. Just go with it.

Cain is good, but not as good as Hamels. Sorry, giAnts supporters on this blog.

Anyone worried about this Giants lineup is simply making things up for the sake of the BL reverse jinx. The best Jack could come up with is, "a couple breaks here or there could go the Giants' way." There's almost nothing to be concerned about with this lineup. If Cole pitches like we know he can, the Giants won't score much, if at all. If he doesn't... then our problem isn't Matt Cain or the Giants lineup...

"Cain is good, but not as good as Hamels."

I think Cain CAN be as good as Hamels, he has shown some great stuff at times, but I dont see him doing much today against the Phils.

P.S. I didnt mind the 'fake' line up with Jimmy batting leadoff. He does own Cain.

The only way this game is lost is if Hamels realizes the sun is still out. Somebody needs to tell him it is 715 or something.

Hamels is slightly better than Cain, but in any single game that doesn't mean a whole lot.

However, the Giants lineup is weaker than the Phillies, and apart from Cody Ross, has shown zero signs of getting hot (and even his hits have been off a specific mistake). The Phillies, on the other hand, are seemingly getting hotter, or at least are gaining a better collective approach as the postseason goes on.

Respect the opposition- if you win it means you beat a good team, that makes it more enjoyable.

Whoa dude. Far out, man. You know me, get some tix and get stoked. Come on out early and have some tofu and kayak in the cove, bro. Peace.

'That Giants line-up stinks on paper.'

...and on natural grass

What's A. Rowand's UZR? Did the Giants just get worse in CF in a much bigger park thereby magnifying the effect?

Lake Fred,
If they played Rowand in Philly then the Daily News would go with "Old Fence Face is Back" as the head.

I don't even know what an "LSU - Auburn NCAA football game" is.

Bed Beard, LSU is the team that won the college WS last year (2009). They play football as an Autumn diversion and exercise activity. There's no MLB team down here in Louisiana. We got to do something in our spare time. If both teams play, I am watching the Phillies and I'll have an ear bud in one ear with the football game. I'll wear my Ryan Howard shirt during the game.

Ironic how people are saying they aren't worried about the Giants lineup when our team collectively is barely hitting .220 in the post season....

Just sayin'......

Mike: Some people get torn up about small sample sizes. Others are reasonable.

"Careful. There is way too much positivity on this board right now."

positivity = season over

I really donot know if Cain is able to
control the Phils' offense.

[sorry for the phils pun]

Matt Cain, some numbers:

7.1 SO/9
2.5 BB/9
2.21 SO/BB
xFIP: 4.19
SIERA: 3.90
.254 BAbip

Cole Hamels, some numbers:

9.1 SO/9
2.6 BB/9
3.62 SO/BB
xFIP: 3.43
SIERA: 3.19
.293 BAbip

The numbers bear out that Hamels is a considerably better pitcher than Cain. Cain seems to pitch a bit more innings (.3333 innings more per game), and Cain gave up less hits per nine, but the BAbip has a lot to do with that. Other than that, Cole can do everything Cain can do, but better, and much better in many instances.

I think Cain's xFIP is a good predictor of today's game especially with the team Bochy is running out behind him. I see Cain @ 6ip giving up 3-4 runs

Cain posted a BAbip of .267 in 2009, and had an ERA of 2.89 and an ERA+ of 148.

In 2008, his BAbip was a bit more normal at .300, and he posted an ERA of 3.76 and ERA+ of 118.

His truer potential is probably closer to his 2008 performance, and he's probably a 3.5-3.6 ERA pitcher.

Cole Hamels, with a BAbip of .293 this year, has gotten a little lucky, perhaps, but is probably sitting near his true level. I imagine, going forward, Cole is a 3.1-3.25 ERA pitcher.

Again, Cole is a good deal better than Cain.

I'm likin those stats of King Cole. And I think I'll be feeling good if Cain gives up 3 or 4 runs in 6 innings....with the qualifier that Cody Ross hasn't seen any inside over the plate fast balls and the only low ball over the plate that Burrell sees is in the dirt.

How many times in the last 30 games have the Giants allowed more than 3 runs in their home park?

The Giants will win 75-1 today and the team plane will crash as the Angels open the 7th Seal, the seas will burn and the moon with be blood red!!!


clout, I believe the correct answer is 3X in the last 5 games (counting NLDS) and, 3X in the last 30+

I went to ESPN's MLB Probables page and the line stats listed for Hamels and Cain are very similar. Wow! This ought to be a good close game. I can't wait. How many more minutes? I guess my work output will go to hell this afternoon.

41 minutes to go, Lake Fred.

Did anyone "Lawrence Taylor" some late night company over to PtB's place?

Would be nice to see "Tampa Bay Pat" rather than "Philly Pat" or "S.F. Pat"....

Oh God!!!11

The Phillies only have a 10% chance of scoring more than three runs in San Fran!

The sky...falling..

"How many times in the last 30 games have the Giants allowed more than 3 runs in their home park?"

Clearly you havent seen the trash offenses they played against in their own park if you are trying to say the are good at home.

I have too much work to really go watch the game with a clear conscience, but, I won't be able to concentrate anyway. Therefore, I suspect that somewhere there is a bar stool with my name on it. That should take care of the entire issue.

I'm cutting out of work in about 5-10 min to go watch it.

clout: Well, they've allowed more than 3 runs in three of their last 5 home games. And those 5 home games were all high profile (final series vs. San Diego, NLDS vs. Altanta), so it's not like the Giants pitchers were taking it easy.

They had gone 12 home games before that without allowing 3 or more runs, but in the 5 home games before that, they allowed 5 or more runs in each of them.

Giants allowed 3 or more runs in 3 of their last 5 home games, 8 of their last 22 home games and 12 of their last 30 home games.

If we don't count the games where the Giants gave up more than three runs at home then they have never given up more than three runs at home, but I digress.

Looks like Girardi won't be returning to Chicago, and Sandberg will be taking off altogether now that he has been royally screwed out of the manager's job today.

Yeah, if you're parading the usual NL West suspects like the sanitary Pads, the Dodgers, and the D-Backs, runs are probably a rarity. Even the Rox have to get used to the heavy humid sea level air is SF. The Phils won't have such problems now that Cholly has solved his lineup puzzle.

CJ: The question was MORE than 3 runs. Not 3 or more.

Not that it always means anything but the betting line has moved in the Phillies favor today as it did before game 2. It moved the opposite way before game 1.

Vegas loves the Phils.

Some "High Cheese" notes from David Murphy.

1) Singleton playing OF and Savery playing 1B in the Florida Instructional League (as expected on both accounts).

2) Relief prospect Justin DeFratus is on his way to the Arizona Fall League now that Team USA is done playing.

One year ago today was J-Roll's game winning hit againt Broxton and the Dodgers to put then up 3-1 in the series.

LF: Where did the D'backs finish in the league in runs scored? Bet somewhere in the top half.

CJ: My numbers are home games in which they've given up MORE than 3 runs. Sorry if I mistyped it.

3 of the last 5
8 of the last 22
12 of the last 30

That's more than 3 runs according to

Yo, new thread. (And why was I talking to myself in my last comment?)

it is funny how everyone said it will be yankees/phillies in the WS, but now it looks like it might be rangers/giants.

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