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Thursday, October 14, 2010


From the live chat in Murphy's blog, held by Sam Donellon.

sam donnellon: pat gets booed i guarantee it. at least he should be. they gave him his bows when he came through in august. this is for real.

Charlie's comment about not having speed on the bench tells me that Brown will be going down for the extra pitcher. Which is too bad.

Jack - In this series, I don't mind seeing KK in the pen though especially if it goes 6 or 7 games. I just hope it isn't for the likes of Baez.

That provided me with exactly 'zero' insight and probably to any casual fan who has watched this team. Not exactly like Cholly is one to suddenly shake things or up or frankly needs to though.

Starting pitching choices were obvious. Ditto on the lineup unless he wanted to move JRoll back to leadoff for some strange reason.

MG: Oh, I totally get the need for an 11th pitcher. Absolutely.

I just wish it wasn't Brown who was being sent down.

With the lack of LH hitters I don't see the need for Bastardo this round. Huff hits lefties better then righties so I don't know what match-up we'd save Bastardo for.

I fear Baez may get the call this round.

Should be KK over Baez.
KK is a relatively long term Phillie and Baez is a hired gun- one that shoots blanks.

Plus KK has been in relief role before.

Please KK and not Baez.

KK would be able to go several innings, can often get out a RHB and can, at least in theory, get a ground ball.

Baez named after a folk singer maybe?

I think you guys are underestimating Danys Baez, no?

Without him, how would we ever understand a word that comes out of Jose Contreras' mouth?

Interesting to hear Chollie discuss the Giants pitching. He took long enough to say the "appropriate" things (how good they all are). I think he believes the Phils are gonna rake this series.

I'd rather have a speedy PR than an extra pitcher in a close series where we will be playing smallball.

Designated Translator is a non roster position, eligable for a share of post season winnings, but unable to blow leads.

****With the lack of LH hitters I don't see the need for Bastardo this round. Huff hits lefties better then righties so I don't know what match-up we'd save Bastardo for.****

I'd rather have Bastardo regardless. He has better stuff and throws with more control (of course, a half-blind crippled walrus has better command than Danys Baez)

I'm saying Baez over Bastardo. KK will take either Dobbs or Brown's spot.

I'm not proposing it but Charlie may want one more RH option out of the pen. KK is strictly there for an emergency start or long relief. Baez would be in for a match-up.

For those of you predicting the Phils losing game 2....

In the past three years, the Phils have won every post season game that I attended. I will be at CBP on Sunday; therefore, they will win. The Phils will head to San Fran up 2-0.

We wont get rid of Dobbs thanks to the major injury concerns to Polly/ that kinda sucks.

KF - I hope so. Going into SF two up with Cain on the mound and Halladay prepping for a game 5 would pretty much seal the deal.

dutch - Matchup with who exactly? Baez had some limited opportunities in Sept/Oct and didn't pitch well. I would be really surprised if he makes the NLCS roster.

The other piece of Bochy's schedule? If it goes seven games, Cain is the game 7 starter in Phila.



Kutztown Fan - But i will also be attending Game 2 and the Phils have lost games by the bucket load that I have attended the past 3 years. As good as they have been, they are 6 games under .500 in the 20 or so games I have attended the past 3 years.

Cain vs. Hamels at home (and at night) in a Game 7?

Can you say advantage Phils.

Do they still make you play a Game 7 when you win the first 4 of a series?

If the question of Baez vs. KK becomes an issue of any significance, this team is in big trouble.

"Do they still make you play a Game 7 when you win the first 4 of a series?"


I think that's the game they let Francisco, Hoover and Mayberry start.

Andy, without a doubt, your posts are my favorite to read on BL.

Crashburnalley does an evaluation of the Giants' rotation. He is impressed by their rotation, but likes the Phillies rotation better.

And if there's on thing that Bill Baer is, it's objective in his appraisal.

I agree with him.

I don't think there's ever been any question that our rotation is a little better than theirs, that our offense is substantially better than theirs, that our bullpen ... is about as good as theirs, maybe, etc. However, the teams are just so close, and their pitching is just so good, almost as good as ours, that you can't predict this will be an easy series. It ought to go 6; it could go 7.

Hamm, they put Hoover on the roster over Domonic Brown??

You know, sometimes I just don't understand this team...

MG - Stay the hell home on Sunday. Take one for the team.

I don't think the pitching choice for Games 2 and 3 were all that obvious. I can see the argument of pitching Hamels for a Game 3, thus saving him for a possible Game 7, but you're pitching him A) During the day, and B) At AT&T Park, a place he's pitched poorly in? I think Hamels should've gotten the nod in Game 2.

Kutztown Fan - 3rd base line about 20 rows up with preferred parking? Nah. Can't do it.

****Kutztown Fan - 3rd base line about 20 rows up with preferred parking? Nah. Can't do it. ****

Clearly not a true fan.

FWIW, Hamels has been great in day games this year so that particular problem is not really an issue anymore. And Oswalt isn't great at AT&T either.

" Nah. Can't do it. "

How ironic. After months of blaming every loss on Charlie, MG refuses to accept responsibility for potentially costing the Phils a shot at the World Series.


Can one of you smart folks on here answer something for me IRT to pennants?

There was a discussion in the comments section of fangraphs where a poster said that the Braves are going to get another pennant on their stadium for winning the wild card. Another poster said he didn't know that. Neither did I.

Is that for real? I thought you got a pennant when you won, you know, a pennant race. Since the wild card race isn't a pennant race, I figured no pennant.

Can someone confirm/deny?

The Phillies (and Braves) put up Pennants for Division Wins, actual NL Pennant wins, and WS Wins.

WC pennants are stupid.

Heather: Will it make a difference whether there is a pennant or not to the 14,000 fans that pack the stadium nightly?? Maybe they can put it next to their ONE world series pennant...

12:45, and it shows up in my Google reader at 2:20. Thanks Google!

Phillies in 3. Giants will forfeit after realizing how little chance they have when we win 18-0 in the first 3 games.

Baez is this year's Adam Eaton.

"Adam, you lost do you feel?"

"I feel like I pitched a good game."

"Sorry, what?!?"

"The Phillies (and Braves) put up Pennants for Division Wins, actual NL Pennant wins, and WS Wins.

WC pennants are stupid."

I still might be confused. From the gist of your statement, it sounds a bit to me like what you're saying is that an individual team decides what they're going to put up pennants for in their stadium?

Seriously, MG, STAY HOME.

My brother also has a lousy winning percentage at Phillies' games, so he long ago decided not to attend crucial games.

Heather, as far as I know, that's how it works. I dont know if MLB has a specific rule on putting up pennants or not.

Thanks, NEPP

MG - yanks fans were saying the same thing about Marte before the playoffs started last year.

I think Pete Rose should throw out the first pitch Saturday night then sprint over to the visitor's dugout and steamroll Bochy, just for old times sake.....

I think Cole's AT&T Park issues may be a little overblow. His last two starts there have not been good, giving up 10 ER over 11 innings of work. But his 2009 numbers are a reflection of a different pitcher, since he pretty struggled in most parks that year.

When one looks at his 2010 start in San Francisco, something comes to the surface. He went 6 innings that game, and gave up 4 ER, while walking 4, surrendering 9 hits and striking out 10. If that line seems a little cooky, that's because it is.

Cole faced 30 batters this game. 13 of them got on via a hit or walk. He recorded 10 outs via strikeout. Of the other 7 he faced, outs were recorded by a ball put in play (there must've been a double play in there to get the math to work out). This means that of 16 balls he allowed in play, only 7 resulted in outs of any kind.

Given his strikeout total on the day, he wasn't pitching poorly, as 10 SO over 6 IP equates to a 15 SO/9 ratio. Now this can answer why he walked so many that day, but giving up 9 hits on only 16 balls put in play tells me one thing: the BAbip fairy hated Cole that day.

Also, since the beginning of August, Cole has gotten his walk rate under control a bit. His walk rate on the season is 2.63, but since August 1st, it's down to 1.76.

In 2008 and 2007, Cole wasn't stellar at AT&T park, as he gave up 4 ER over 7 innings there in 08 and 3 ER over 7 innings ther ein 07, but those outings are nothing to get excited over.

Overall, Cole's had 4 starts in AT&T Park, 1 of which came during a season in which he struggled mightily all season ('09), and his start there this year seems to be more smoke and mirrors than poor pitching.

Let's hope that if 16 balls are put in play against Cole on Tuesday, 9 don't turn into hits this time.

MG - I'm sitting in the section above you. If the Phils fall behind, I'm spilling a beer on you.

MG, go to the game. Since I am predicting a sweep, whatever game you choose, the Phillies will win. Don't listen to these nattering nabobs of negativity.

Apropos to nothing - I swear Tom Gordon is doing the current show on MLB on XM.

Apropos to the ALCS: Angel Hernandez, voted least liked in a SI poll, is umpiring the ALCS.

Haven't heard who's on the NLCS crew.

Joe - That's awesome.

Seems that Roy may have had the same issue in AT&T Park, as he had 25 balls put in play, and 10 wound up as hits (40%), but with such a small sample size, and with .4 only a 33% hike from .3, which is typical of a pitcher's BAbip. He did give up a HR that day, so that accounts for some of the 5 ER he allowed in his 7 innings that day.

But Roy Halladay is almost beyond question to me. If he goes less than 9 innings and gives up more than 1 ER, I'll be really surprised. If the Phillies play good defense behind him, he'll be stellar.

In light of MG and his impact on the winning percentage, I have a question about my impact on the the playoffs.

I wore a Phillies t-shirt for the first time in game one. No-hitter, but clearly not a big deal. I did not get it washed in time so I did not wear it on the day of game 2. I got in late, saw that the score was 4-0. I pulled the shirt out of the wash and put it on two pitches before Chase gets his two out, two RBI single in the 5th, and the Reds fall apart. Obviously, I cannot wash it prior to game 3, where I wear the shirt the whole game and enjoy the shut-out.

I now have a lot of use in the shirt. Can I wash it between series or do I need to keep adding smell? I am going to a fairly nice party Sat night (wine tasting but the game will be on in a corner) and while I will wear the t-shirt under my dress shirt, my wife would prefer that it was clean.


Here are the umpiring crews, per

Derryl Cousins will serve as the crew chief during the 2010 NLCS. Cousins' crew will feature regular season crew chief Tom Hallion, Wally Bell, Ted Barrett, Jeff Nelson and Dan Iassogna.

Gerry Davis will be the crew chief in the 2010 ALCS. Davis will work with regular season crew chief Brian Gorman, Angel Hernandez, Fieldin Culbreth, Jim Reynolds and Tony Randazzo.

Oh, well. I completely disagree with pitching Cole during the day, with the west coast time difference, and in that stadium. I do agree with setting things up for a game 7 at home for Cole, but do we really want to see a game 7 at all?

Fat, that was an interesting analysis of Cole's pitching at AT&T, but even accounting for everything you mentioned, it still isn't a fantastic pitching record in a pitcher's park. I'll just go with the small sample size argument.

JeffS, I in no way mean to insinuate that he's good there, or even acceptable, but I don't think he's been so poor there that it's cause for worry. It is a pitcher's park, and if Cole pitches as he can, then the park should only help him, not hinder him.

And surrendering 9 hits on 16 balls put in play, a 56.25% rate, is unlikely to happen again.


Your wife asking you to wash the the tee (hopefully, she hasn't done so yet) is a clear violation. I'm sure that if you explain that to her, she'll understand.

At any rate, under no circumstances should you wash the shirt.

"Apropos to the ALCS: Angel Hernandez, voted least liked in a SI poll, is umpiring the ALCS.

Haven't heard who's on the NLCS crew."

That makes sense (sarcasm.)

I'm sure we'll see Joe West and Balkin Bob Davidson in the World Series.

Fat: [And surrendering 9 hits on 16 balls put in play, a 56.25% rate, is unlikely to happen again.]

That is the part I found amazing. Can you imagine what went through Cole's head when that was happening? Might explain some of the walks?

****Haven't heard who's on the NLCS crew.****

CB Bucknor followed by Joe West.

Fatalotti --

Nice analysis, as always. Mays, McCovey, Matt Williams and Bonds are long gone; Lincecum has a blister on this throwing hand.

I love the Phillies and honestly believe they will win in 6 games. Oswalt was not dominant in Game 2, but like that mattered! However, as the old adage goes "...that's why they play the games."


Your wife asking you to wash the the tee (hopefully, she hasn't done so yet) is a clear violation. I'm sure that if you explain that to her, she'll understand.

At any rate, under no circumstances should you wash the shirt."

He washed it after the no hitter and it still helped secure the win, so it might be a shirt where dirty/washed doesn't matter.

Nevertheless, unless you're a really sweaty/grungy guy I can almost guarantee you your shirt doesn't smell bad. You only wore it for part of game 2 and game 3, right? That's what, 6 hours at the most? It's not like your shirt is going to stink at the party. At least not enough to be noticeable.

Pitching Cole in Game 2 would also have kept him on the Sunday rotation. ;)

Read again, Heather.

He DIDN'T wash the shirt after the first game. It's obvious - proven by the fact that the Phillies won.

Washing any item of clothing worn during a Phillies win always, and I mean always, results in a loss the next game. And the more the clothing smells, the greater the effect on the game's outcome.

Scott Barry

Our season tix are in right field where the sun beats down mercilessly all summer long. I have "Gilligan" hat I wear during those times. I got ridiculed for wearing it to a day game during the playoffs last year until I informed my tormentors that the Phils won every game when I wore the hat. They then begged me to wear the hat at all times.

So, Texasbart, if I can wear a silly hat, you can wear a grungy tshirt.

"So, Texasbart, if I can wear a silly hat, you can wear a grungy tshirt."

I have about 10 hours logged so far. Hopefully it will stink like crazy in another two weeks.

Careful, Kutztown. At this point, it may be necessary for you to wear the hat at all times; even in the shower and when you and Mrs. Kutztown are getting frisky. I'm not sure the full jinx is in effect, but you should tread with caution.

I have to wear my navy blue fitted Phillies hat or they will lose...along with my '08 WS T-shirt.

And I have to sit on the left side of the couch.

Not superstitious at all...just doing my part.

Would be nice to see our big bats generate some violent waves in McCovey Cove. Maybe we can tip over some of those intoxicated Giants' boaters while we're at it.

I do have to say it will be quite a contrast between the sea of bright Phillies red for home games and sh&tty brown in San Fran.

What can brown do for you? Lose in 4.

Long time lurker... I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but thought you'd all enjoy as much as I did.

Francoeur quote:
"I always wanted to know what it was like to play meaningful baseball in New York and I'm going to have the opportunity."

Read more:


Mrs. Kutztown?! You haven't been reading my posts very closely.

Look, I didn't want to mention this because it's been too painful to talk about until now. But as far as jinxes go, the Phils have lost every game I've attended since I went to the World Series clincher in '08. This year in I went to 4 games and in the 36 innings I watched in CBP, they scored a total of 2 runs.

I got my hands on tickets to game 1 of the NLDS but couldn't go because of work obligations, so I gave them to a co-worker for face value. At the time I'm thinking "Well I'm doing them a favor anyway, there's no way they'd win if I go." Obviously I take credit for the no-hitter, and give my fiancee credit for keeping me from jumping off the roof that night.

So basically if MG doesn't take one for the team I consider him much less of a fan than myself. At this point I'm staying away for the good of the team and he should too.

I have about 10 hours logged so far. Hopefully it will stink like crazy in another two weeks.

I have to ask: What are you doing in that shirt to make it stink? If you're just wearing it while watching the game, how bad could it possibly stink? Are you working out, doing yard work, sitting in the rain?

I must know.

Sorry - should that be Mr. Kutztown?

Sounds like it will be shades of Candlestick Park in South Philly this weekend...

I was in the Phillies' temp offices when they were moving from the Vet to CBP. The League presidents send out official certificates awarding teams the rights to display pennants and wall signs indicating what it won the previous season and call themselves NL or AL (whatever they won) cahmps in advertising and in new stories. Giles' family had been signing off on the NL certs for years. The Phillies had the ones they won framed and displayed in a dark exhibition area. They also had trophy which was poorly tarnished. What I found remarkable was the old certs told them exactly between what dates they were allowed to fly the official pennant (perhaps the league used to issue one, I don't know) and display the trophy which abruptly ended when the next trophy was awarrded. Perhaps this changed in 1994.

My kid was climbing on my back as I typed that, the missus is away on business. Forgive the spaces and spelling.

I'm a diehard Duke Blue Devils fan. Remembered before this year's tournamet that I hung up a Duke shirt my freshman year of college - 2001 - for the entire tournament, but just from the start of each weekend set (1st/2nd round, Regional semis/finals, Final Four) and took it down in between. Duke won the national title.

This year I decided to wear the same t-shirt for every game. Duke again won the national title. I did not wash the shirt during the weekend segments. But I did wash it in between the 2nd round and Sweet 16 as well as the Elite 8 and Final 4. So I think the shirt can be washed now before the NLCS and before the World Series but NOT while the series is going on.

Kutztown Fan - I will be the guy with the red hat on.

BTY my last Phils' playoff game was Game 6 of the '93 NLCS. Still have that ticket at home with the 'Phils Bury Braves: Hollins' HR helps Phils clinch' article from the Reading Eagle/Times.

Prior to that it was '83 NLCS as a kid where Charles Hudson pitched a CG and Sarge homered.

I guess that makes me kind of a good luck omen for Game 2.

NLCS Game was Game 3. Even though I was only 6, I still remember the Sarge HR and the Phanatic smashing a Dodgers' batting helmet.

Cowley - It won't be Candlestick because people won't be in winter coats wearing hats, scarves, and gloves like some fans were doing at the 49ers-Eagles game this past weekend.

Yeah it gets cold in SF in the summer time especially on the western side of the city in Outer Sunset because of the fog. Still, it is generally in the 50s/60s even at night.

I would have rather seen Hamels start Game 2 in Philly too than a potential game on the road during the day (Hamels' kyrponite).

It baffles me why the Phils seemingly refuse to acknowledge that despite 4+ years of data that shows conclusively that Hamels is simply is a much better pitcher at night (and to a slightly lesser degree at home).

Giants ordered their pitching staff to maximize their potential effectivness. Phils' didn't but that isn't anything new.

Rob Neyer, of, rated the top ten pitchers of the last decade, and his permutation is different than the one below (I just listed them based on WAR, in descending order, for the decade). I thought you'd all find it interesting that we have two of the three best pitchers, in terms of WAR, of the last decade starting the first two games of the NLCS for us.

1. Roy Halladay (54.6 WAR)
2. Johan Santana (46.5)
3. Roy Oswalt (44.6)
4. CC Sabathia (42.7)
5. Mark Buehrle (42.3)
6. Tim Hudson (39.1)
7. Randy Johnson (35.1)
8. Javier Vazquez (34.3)
9. Mike Mussina (30.3)
10. Andy Pettitte (26.6)

If you extrapolate out Tim Lincecum's WAR for his 4 years in the majors, he'd have been a 45-50 WAR pitcher over a decade. Cole Hamels would have been a 33-38 WAR pitcher over a decade. Matt Cain would have been a 38-40 WAR pitcher, while Sanchez only extrapolates out to an 18 WAR pitcher.

In short, there's some pretty damn good pitching in this series coming up.

Going to be a great series, and I have to admit, all of the buildup of how tough a match this could be had been causing me just a little bit of stress (the extra days off don't help).

But now that I know that Texasbart is clear on what needs to be done in regards to his shirt, that NEPP has his regimen in place, and that Kutztown Fan will be rocking his Gilligan hat (I won't ask how the hell that came to be the first time around...), I feel much, much better.

All the pitching in the world won't upset this team as long as we all do our part. I'll be sure to have my grimey Hallady uni-shirt on (haven't lost this season with it yet, ~6 games), and I'll make sure that the dog is inside the house during the game.

Though, I do have to question Texasbart - if you're that big of a fan to have a lucky t-shirt and want to be clear on the laundry rules, what the hell are you doing going to a wine tasting party while the Phillies are playing in the NLCS?

Bucket hats, smelly shirts, and selective attendance are great supernatural influencers and all. But until relatively recently, my superstition was the most reliable of all -- proving infallible season over season for at least 30 years. And, it was simple too, being easily described as:

The team I rooted for would eventually stumble and fall.

Then a couple years ago, that previously unstoppable mojo stopped workin'. I just don't understand it...

NEPP: I always wear a red Phillies hat and sit on the right side of the couch. I'm thinking there might be some kind of energy flow created by the opposition of blue/left in one part of New England and red/right in another.

OTOH, I have been to only two post season games in my life and the Phillies lost both of them: Game 2 in 1978 against the Dodgers and Game 3 last year in the Series. I do have tix for what would be a game 6 in the NLCS, and I have been struggling with whether I could pull for a couple losses so I could attend the clincher, but it is clear to me now I need to stay on the couch and root for the Phils in 5.

Phlipper - sadly, no Mr Kutztown. But with a Gilligan hat, I'm sure that will change. LOL

Mark Twain once said that the coldest winter he ever experienced was summer in San Francisco.

Where the F is Sophist?

So, pretty much the funniest sports blog post I've ever read. It had me crying.

Enjoy. This guy Grant is a hoot to read.

I'm not a big stats guy like many on here, but I thought this was tremendous from Eastfallowfield from the last thread, even if it's only remotely accurate:

"From my half baked calculations, the Giants pitchers got to pitch in the top 9 pitchers parks* 112 times over the season, while the Phils pitchers got 24 such starts.

*ESPN park factors"

Let's hope EFF is not as "half-baked" in his calculations as Linceum normally appears to be...

Seriously, I don't see how people think this is going seven games or that the Giants will win. Could Lincecum beat Halladay 2-1 or 1-0 and could Oswalt also lose game 2? Sure it could happen. Not much shocks me in sports these days-on the field and off-but I would be VERY surprised if we don't win this series. Not enough offense from the Giants, not enough experience on that team to beat us over seven games.

Oh, I want to cover one other thing before the series even starts. It seems that Brian Wilson by all accounts is a bit, uh, eccentric. Going to apologize if this has been covered in a previous NLDS thread, but what in the hell is up with that beard? Looking at him while he's pitching is like watching a train wreck, you really can't believe what you are seeing. He looks beyond ridiculous. Between him and Lincecum, I suppose that's the whole idea.

Not sure if anyone's posted this, but from ESPN, Stark's piece about the transformation of the Phillies franchise in 4 short seasons:

Fat, that was a great read, thanks for the link (I subsequently tweeted it, as well). It kinda puts things in perspective. Wonder if Grant ever spent any meaningful amount of time living in Philly?

Let's hope EFF is not as "half-baked" in his calculations as Linceum normally appears to be...

Here's how I got the numbers, by park and ranking:

#3 Hou-SF 6, Phils 3
#5 SD-SF 9, Phils 3
#6 NYM-SF 3, Phils 9
#7 STL-SF 3, Phils 3
#8 LAD-SF 9, Phils 4
#9 SF-SF 81, Phils 3

Was off by one each way, SF played 111 of 162 (68.5%) in the top 9 pitchers' parks. Phils 25 (15%).

Brian Wilson's appearances with Jim Rome are legendary. When he's not playing the Phillies, he's one of my fave characters. He's having fun and I dig it.

Luckily, the Phillies won't even let it be close in the late innings with their large leads, and BW won't be a factor.

That guy Wilson with his freaky dyed beard looks like Casey from Tim and Eric Awesome Show on Cartoon Network.
All UC has to do is make the first 11 batters take at least a pitch before they swing. If the pitcher has control issues they need to take more pitches. Then every so often somebody like Vic or Raul needs to slap a double and just let Ruiz and PP hit whatever they want. Guaranteed win.

He's Macho Man Randy Savage from his WCW NWO days.

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