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Friday, October 15, 2010

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With the starters we have, I'd rick going with ten pitchers.

Can't live with Dobbs, but can't live without someone who can marginally play 3B.

Well you bring Ibanez into 3rd and send Roy Oswalt into LF.

You think we're struggling for content?

Sportscenter is doing a story about Kirk Gibson's walk off HR, and the Dodgers/As were out of contention months ago.

We're not alone.

repost of thanks from end of prev thread:

Hey, I just wanna thank so many posters for offering links to articles and columns that I might not otherwise have picked up on. I'm one reader here who always clicks on the links to see what they're about and usually wind up reading them.
Hate the long delay between series but ironically, we'll be playing the first games of the NLCS in better weather conditions now as an indirect result of the TV imposed schedule.

I'd go with ten pitcheres. Let's face it, if we need that extra pitcher, there's no hope in the game anyway.

Robin Roberts is dead.

Gload's bat adds more value than Dobbs' glove, and Brown's speed and potential pinch hitting power should not be sacrificed in favor of a pitcher who will never get in the games. If they have to lose a position player, I'd think it has to be Dobbs.

Robin Roberts pitched deeper into games than Nietzsche ever did. Now Kierkegaard was a different story.

It would be a damn shame to leave our best pinch hitter this season off the NLCS roster. There's no way we can afford not to bring Gload. I'd leave off Brown, Sweeney, and Dobbs before Gload. My choice, unfortunately is Brown. He is an excellent prospect and I am excited for his future, but right now his roster spot is better used elsewhere.

Sure, Brown is fast, but if he pinch runs, would he actually steal bases? If we're just talking about pinch running for Mike Sweeney after a walk or single, I'd rather just bring in a Hamels or Oswalt. Brown may be fast but he doesn't seem to have that base stealing mentality that Michael Bourn had when we was on our bench. Without that, his presence on the roster, strictly as a pinch runner, is not all that valuable.

Yes, add a pitcher, but not at the expense of Gload.

Brown has to go. You simply can't sit out your best pinch hitter. Gload is the best pinch hitter on the team and one of the best in baseball. If Brian Wilson is on the mound in the ninth and you need a pinch hitter, would anyone seriously send Dobbs up there? Ever?

You need Dobbs to cover the infield in case of further injury. You need Gload's bat. Brown has to sit. I'd love to see him for pinch running duties, but he can't do with the bat what Gload can do in a pinch hit appearance. And he can't play the infield.

How about something different. Put KK on the roster from the pen. And sit Durbin out. He's been pretty bad. Not Baez bad. But how many hitters did he retire in the LDS? Zero. That pickoff was a gift from the gods.

phargo said "Clout, you are our own Eeyore."

I've actually thought of Clout as our own "Winchester" as in Charles Winchester III of MASH...I'd say BAP is our own Eeyore. ;)

And I'm glad PhilliesDude enjoys the links. I do, too.

Here's a quote about the determination of our team, given by Mike Sweeney (yes, the irrelevant one) about talk he heard in the clubhouse when he arrived Aug. 4 and the Phils were 2 games behind the Braves in the standings:
"I heard it from a ton of guys, 'Have your kids' Halloween costumes shipped to Philly because we plan on having your kids going trick-or-treating around here.'

Hey, it may not be intellectual, but at least it's baseball related!

At the risk of infuriating Heather, I'm with JW, Gload is somewhat expendable and as much as I loathe the thought, you NEED to have the insurance that is Bruntlett, er, rather Dobbs right now.

How many PH AB's did we even use in the NLDS (not that we needed any high leverage PH's)?

As written about, it might take a manufactured run or two to swipe a game in this series. If that's the case, I'd like to have Dom Brown in the Dave Roberts role.

As for JW's interesting topic of discussion. I agree on needing fill-ins for Rollins and Polanco, and I like the speed of Brown in a series where small ball may make the difference. But I could also see both teams' pitching into a dead heat of 0-0 or 1-1 and forays into extra innings. With 4 starters, a pitching staff of 10 has 6 relievers...Is that enough should we go to extra innings a few times?

I guess we'll see a new blog "Go Trick or Treating With Sweeney"...

And I actually agree that Gload is a better PH option than Dobbs (who must stick around for insurance) and Sweeney (who I'll concede might be a better candidate to sit).

I just think that as much as it's crucial to have insurance against injury, and a good PH, we also need someone with some speed. Not necessarily to steal bases, but for 1st to 3rd and ability to tag from 3rd on a fly ball.

I love Sweeney as much as everyone, but I don't think we can keep Sweeney and Gload, as they're essentially the same thing (from different sides of the plate) and Cholly won't PH that often. If you have to leave one of them off, I think you leave the lefty off, as it's a lefty heavy lineup, as is.

Just got a call. Hall of Fame Club tomorrow night. Holy @#!%. Didn't see that coming.

To set some expectations:

In 8 of Roy Halladay's 33 starts, he gave up 4 or more earned runs.
In 5 of Roy Oswalt's 32 starts, he gave up 4 or more earned runs.
In 7 of Cole Hamels's 32 starts, he gave up 4 or more earned runs.

If you assume that these odds carry into the postseason, there is almost exactly a 50% chance that one of H2O will give up 4 or more earned runs in a start. Obviously this is a simplification, but it should help to put into perspective how actually likely it is that we get one more more dud starts out of our Big Three.

I think this will be a very tight series. I especially don't like the Blanton-Bumgarner matchup in Game 4. Hold on to your hats, everyone.

BTW anybody ever sit in the HOF club? Ive done Diamond Club but never HOF. It sounds like the old Super Boxes at The Vet. Anybody?

I should point out that the analysis on the last post is based on three starts, one by each of H2O. If you go to 6 starts, the likelihood of at least one "dud start" increases to 75%.

You think we're struggling for content?

Sportscenter is doing a story about Kirk Gibson's walk off HR, and the Dodgers/As were out of contention months ago.

We're not alone.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 12:49 PM

~~~~~~~~


What can there possibly be to say about that dam.n homerun that hasn't already been said, ad infinitum?

(However, even all these years later, Gibson's homerun still cuts like a knife in my heart.)

The Gibson HR was one of those special moments that you never forget. It was amazing then and it is still amazing today.

imo, i think that clout is the smartest, most interesting, most cleverest BL poster ever! he's soooo kewl, and we're soooo lucky to have him. please post more smarter comments so he doesn't leave us. he's just soooo smart and stuff. plz don't leave mr. clout!

On ESPN.com, Keith Law picked the Phillies to win the series...in six games.

Clearly, he still hates us.

How's this for another possibility to drop for a pitcher: Ben Francisco. It basically becomes a question of whether Sweeney is a better RH PH option than Francisco (I think Sweeney is better), and whether the OF can be sufficiently covered with Brown and Dobbs/Gload/Valdez (questionable but probably still doable).

If Vic gets injured, Werth can slide over (oh how that has saved our ass) and Brown goes to RF. Brown could directly replace Ibanez and Werth in the field. Should we need two backups (and really, what team wouldn't be screwed by losing two everyday outfielders in one series?), Dobbs and Gload have logged time in RF. Supposedly Valdez is able to play outfield as well. Don't forget Oswalt can play LF too!

Biggest question would be whether it is a mistake to only have one RH PH off the bench? I still think Brown is the best choice to leave off, but Francisco is at least worthy of discussion, IMO.

Apparently, the Gibson home run isn't such a special moment for A's fans (I didn't see it as I didn't own a TV at the time). I mean, I'm sure most baseball fans think Joe Carter's home run was pretty special, too.

MG don't need no jibberjabber on Beerleaguer.

oh, Klaw still hates us, doesn't mean that he can't be impartial. even DC reluctanly thinks the Phils win/make the WS (even though he doesn't think it's a given like everyone else does).

Brown is going to sit, I think. He's not going to get any meaningful playing time and, I suspect Manuel will not even want to see him on the bases in a big spot. I'm not sure I do, either.

Francisco is a PH that you dont immediately have to sub out a PR for...and he can field all 3 OF positions (horribly but he can). He's a better bat than you're giving him credit for.


I cant imagine why A's fans wouldn't like Kirk Gibson...

does MG stand for Mr. G?

Conshy - Technically but I don't:

- Wear lots of gold jewelry
- Have a mohawk
- Don't use the word 'sucka'
- Wear overalls

Wow, Mike Francessa just said the Phillies have the 3rd best pitching staff remaining.

The Giants I can understand, but how anyone can justify the Yankees is beyond me. CC would be the 4th starter on this team. And our bullpen is way better than the '09 version, but apparently he hasn't noticed.

donc: HOF club is really nice, nothing like the Superboxes. It's not enclosed, directly below the press level. Those are good seats you got.

JW: there's no way the Phils could consider leaving their best pinch-hitter off the roster. Dobbs does NOT have a big hit left in him. I can buy your argument about needing IF depth, after what happened with Polanco in the previous Game 1. But you do not choose Dobbs over Gload. I would leave Brown off.

"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it", Mr. G. Santayana.

What would suprise people more: Phils in 4 or 7?

I truely believe Phils in 5; so Phils in 7 would be more of a suprise.

(Assuming Phils win of course; not take a Giants series win into count)

Gotta leave Brown off. Who would the Phils even pinch run for? Ibanez and Sweeney (if he gets in)?

Phillies in 4 or 5 is very likely.

Sorry but we have the pitching advantage in every game pretty much. Its not as close as the "experts" seem to think.

Hell, I'd pinchrun for Rollins at this point.

"Wow, Mike Francessa just said the Phillies have the 3rd best pitching staff remaining."

Heard that. Rivera was his justification, but CC would likely be our #2, not 4.

How did donc get those seats?

(I hope clout isn't offended that I asked.)

@donc

Hall of Fame club is great. It's like club box seats at the wachovia. you have normal seats but the added value is teh concourse that is restricted to only HOF club ticket holders. the lines are never long.

Also, its very cool (esp. during playoffs) bc you'll see celebrities up there very often. I was up at teh no-hitter and we saw joe morgan and during last years WS, we saw Minka Kelly in addition to all the media guys bc the press box is on that level.

earlier this year at a mets game, we were able to see/heckle omar minaya bc teh visiting teams front office box is in the HOF club.

RSB - Agred. If you need to leave off a hitter, it is unfortunately Brown even though his speed would be nice to have. Even with his speed though, I don't know how confident I am in Brown stealing a base late either. I would also rather see Gload up there to PH instead of Brown or Dobbs.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Rivera blew more saves in September than did Lidge.

Not to take away from his greatness...and this is the postseason, a whole different animal...I can't believe we'd rank 3rd best pitching! 2nd, I could see more easily. Don't they have to take into account not only the BP but the likelihood of needing the BP? Meaning that even if the Yankees & Giants have deeper/stronger 'pens than ours, the fact that we may not need the 'pen 2 of 3 days should also weigh in.

GBrettfan: You're not saying you would take Lidge over Mo Rivera, are you?

A's team that made the series from 88-90 and dominated the AL from the late 80s/early 90s really gets overlooked.

I have a feeling that if the Phils don't win the World Series, they will be looked at in the same way down the road. A good/Great team that didn't really capitalize on their chances.

"Wow, Mike Francessa just said the Phillies have the 3rd best pitching staff remaining. "

let him keep his views up in NY - all I hear are the Yankees this and that - but the wonderful Yank fans which i work with do not feel as confident-as in past yrs.

go PHILS!

Well Francesa is out of his mind. Said CC is even with Halladay and Hughes is better than Hamels. Clearly hasn't been watching the NL this season.

Rivera's rough Sept dragged his season ERA+ all the way down to 238.

Rough year for Mo.

He was 6 for 9 in Save opportunities in Sept (just enough to screw my FBB team on a sidenote) with a 4.38 ERA.

He had a 1.13 ERA with 27 Saves in 29 opportunities the rest of the season.

Jack - No but Lidge is being made out to be this Achilles Heel for the Phils. He isn't. This isn't 2009 and Lidge has had a very good 2 1/2 month run now. This isn't "well he had 2-3 good outings so he must be ok."

Frankly I would feel more confident with Madson/Lidge than I do with what the Giants will use as their steup man and with Wilson. Something tells me that it will be the Giants' bullpen that lets them done this series including the Beard in one game.

"And Oswalt is not as good as Andy Pettite in the playoffs this season."

I don't think you leave off Gload. He's arguably our best PH.

Instead of Gload, I would leave off:

1) Dobbs. I'm not convinced we need a second backup infielder. Valdez is there if Rollins and/or Polanco go down. I don't think the probability of them both going down and being unable to play is worth putting Dobbs on the roster. Could it happen? Yeah. But will it? I don't think the probability is high enough that we plan for it, no.

2) Brown. He's going to be used exclusively as a pinch runner, but it's not like he's a wonderful base stealer. The only thing he's going to be really good at is leggging out a run going second to home on a shallow hit or something. And while that might happen, I still think the probability we'll need a good hit off the bench is greater.

Pettitte is a huge injury concern/question mark and Phil Hughes is a nice pitcher but no Cole Hamels.

What a freaking jackass.

Francessa is always a bit over the top with the Yanks' praise even when they are down a bit. Nothing new there. There staff is good and better overall than the Rangers. It isn't better the Giants or Phils.

"If you assume that these odds carry into the postseason, there is almost exactly a 50% chance that one of H2O will give up 4 or more earned runs in a start."

We are facing a below-average offense, though.

Phils aren't getting disrespected either by the national media or by Vegas. Both are favoring the Phils to win the NLCS and the Phils are heavy favorites to win this series and the World Series. Hell, the Giants are 20:1 to sweep this series and 12:1 to win in 5 games.

A's team that made the series from 88-90 and dominated the AL from the late 80s/early 90s really gets overlooked.

I have a feeling that if the Phils don't win the World Series, they will be looked at in the same way down the road. A good/Great team that didn't really capitalize on their chances.

Posted by: MG | Friday, October 15, 2010 at 01:51 PM

~~~~~~~~~~


Sans the 'roids thing, of course.

Any predictions for the Rangers/Yanks series?

Whatifsports proclaims the Rangers as 60% favorites after running the simulations. They were correct for most of their predictions last year and this year, if memory serves.

Pretty much everyone else is predicting the Yankees, however.

ERA+

Hughes: 102
Hamels: 132

Clearly, Hughes is the better pitcher.

CC Sabathia: 134
Roy Halladay: 165

Clearly they are equal.


I think the Vegas odds are so crazy the last time I checked the odds, you'd do better off betting on the Giants. Not that I think the Giants are going to win, but Vegas has the Giants as such dogs, you'd be better off betting on them.

No way is Vegas disrespecting the Phillies.

NEPP, what is this ERA + you speak of? It's all about the winz, baby.

Seriously, the only way you could say CC = Halladay and Hughes > Hamels is if you consulted the win totals exclusively.

Heather - I predicted the Rays would beat the Rangers in five and the Twins would beat the Yanks in five. So don't ask me to predict an ALCS winner. Although I will point out that my sanity was questioned because I thought the Rangers would win two games against the Rays. Guess I wasn't that far off.

For what it's worth, I don't expect the Rangers to go as quickly and quietly as the Twins.

phargo -
On a recent trip to Wisconsin I had my first Leinenkugel(s).


In re: the ALCS
Looking at the Rangers' rotation and lineup leads me to believe that they are overmatched. They have a few players who have had individual exemplary seasons, but can Lee, Hamilton, and Cruz carry all four games?

In re: pitching staffs
clout will tell you: only wins matter.

Heather -
And didn't whatifsports have Dobbs getting four hits in a game?

Um...okay. I'll believe them.

Jack, no I am not saying Lidge is better than Rivera. I meant more what MG said. And was perhaps indulging in a wee bit of talking smack.

Is the game at 7:57 or 7:30? Mlb.com has Saturday's game at 7:30. Now, I know some of you will state that mlb.com lists the time that "coverage beings," but that is incorrect -- or at least it was in the NLDS. For the NLDS, the times listed on mlb.com were the times of the first pitch, not when "coverage started". I would imagine they would stay consistent, but I could be wrong. Anyone know for sure?

sifl- I don't think you did your math right.

Sorry, but this Dobbs question irritates me. Very reluctantly, I vote for keeping him on the team because we need his GD glove just in case. Just a couple of years ago he was a GOOD pinch hitter, actually someone who I always felt had a shot to make something positive happen at the plate. Keeping him would be a no-brainer. Now he is absolutely useless at the plate, what the %*#@ happened to him? I guess he's doing what he can do, but it's frustrating that he's regressed so much on offense.

HOF club is really nice, a great way to see a game. The club is climate controlled, has its own good sized bar, there are a number of food stands with relatively short lines, and there are plenty of TV's around, and some neat stuff to gawk at.

I had 4 HOF tickets to several games for several years with preferred parking, and loved it. One guy had the four season tickets and you could sign up for as many games as you liked prior to the beginning of the season. However, the guy who divvied up the tickets got tired of running things and the tickets were taken over by a couple of guys who apparently saw it as a business opportunity the year after the WFC. They use the tickets for prime games for themselves and their families, give some to favored clients, and sell the rest (not to us guys who were part of the original program, though). I suspect they make enough profit above face value that their games are pretty much freebies. Also imagine there is a fair bit of that type of thing going down these days...

Awesome..just awesome...

Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams knows pitching, having chalked up 192 saves in 11 seasons in the majors. He’ll be in the FOX booth with Joe Buck and Tim McCarver for Game 1 of the NLCS between Philadelphia and San Francisco.

killbillrain: Is that true? Where did you hear that? As much as I like Mitch, that is going to be a trainwreck. Is it possible for all three of those guys to get along?

Thanks. No my question looks pretty lame.

Tray:

Right, it's a simplification. But the Giants probably have a better offense than their 2010 numbers indicate (based on some upgrades as well as underperformance).

JBird:

The math is just the odds that in three consecutive starts there are 3 or fewer runs allowed. It's roughly an 80% chance that in a given start H20 allows 3 runs or fewer -- 80%^3 (the probability it happens three straight times) is about 50%.

This isn't meant to be advanced analysis, but just a reminder that there's a lot of room for bad luck, even with these great pitchers. I see a lot of hubris on the part of a lot of Phillies fans, and we should keep in mind that the dice might not fall our way.

I'll post Keith Law's final analysis here and just state that I largely agree with it.

If the Giants win this series, it seems very likely the reason will be their pitching staff -- not just Lincecum and Matt Cain, but the entire staff, down to that absurdly deep bullpen and its mix of right- and left-handed weapons. The Phillies' lineup did not look great against inferior pitching from Cincinnati, and the Giants' third starter (Sanchez) is better than any of what the Reds threw out there in the NLDS. While Bochy seems to alternate between asleep-at-the-wheel and standing-on-the-panic-button in terms of reliever management, it's an almost Bruce-proof bullpen because anyone other than Lopez against right-handed hitters or Chris Ray against anyone is likely to get outs. As long as Bochy doesn't overreact to one bad outing as he did with Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson in the NLDS, the Giants should have the advantage in any game in which they have a lead after both starters are gone.

The Phillies, however, are a stronger team top to bottom, with fewer weaknesses than the Giants' lineup offers. Even with Jimmy Rollins still less than 100 percent, the core of their lineup is patient with power, and Utley and Jayson Werth in particular are just good, disciplined hitters who can do more than just wait for a mistake. I'd take Philly's top three starters by a tiny fraction over San Francisco's; they're a stronger defensive club; and they're much better on the bases. The Giants are not likely to be pushovers as the Reds were. I'll take the Phillies in six games.

I don't get people trying to choose between Gload, Dobbs, and Brown. Gload and Sweeney are redundant; they're the same player, except Gload is better and healthier (and, of course, Sweeney's right-handed and the Gload's left-handed). If we seriously need to cut somebody other than Dobbs (for 3rd base coverage) and Brown (for speed), we cut Sweeney. I hate to say it, I really like the guy, but that seems pretty clear to me.

Personally, though, I think we're more likely to need the bats than the speed. Keep both Gload and Sweeney, and cut Dom Brown, if you're going to cut a position player. Use Fransisco as a pinch-runner if it comes to that, or if Fransisco's already been used, then Valdez.

I know the series is longer than the cincy series... but here is what i don't get. We only need 10 pitchers against the best offense in the National League, but 11 against one in the lower middle of the pack??? If anything we need the extra bat more this series since their pitching is much better than cincy's.

"What would surprise people more: Phils in 4 or 7?"

If down 3-0, I have to think they would use Lincecum in game 4. If Phils winning in 4 means beating him twice, I think I'd be more surprised with Phils in 4.

Kevin: You're forgetting one thing. We need an extra starter for this series. Since they want to keep the 'pen numbers the same, they'll need to add a pitcher.

Actually Keith Law just relented and said he believes the Phillies can win the NLDS and beat Cincinnati.

gelb says Brown is on the roster

Brown makes the roster over Dobbs.

As long as Polly stays healthy, this is the right move.

The chances that BOTH Rollins and Polanco get hurt, but neither serious enough to make a roster move right away (if a guy is hurt, you can replace him in the middle of the series, but they are ineligible to return) is pretty slim.

If Dobbs is left off, that'd be a double dose of good news. It would not only mean putting the best possible roster together, but it would also be a vote of confidence in Polly and Jimmy's health.

If Polanco gets hurt seriously, you can activate Dobbs for the next game anyway.

Again, Dobbs' roster spot is only an issue if BOTH Rollins and Polly are hurt enough not to play, but not hurt seriously enough to be de-activated. This seems like a rather unlikely scenario to me.

Totally agree with WP: The last man is either Gload or Sweeney. Both are one dimensional. Brown can be dangerous vs. any RHP stupid enough to throw him a fastball and his legs could win a close game.

Sweeney is better as a PH than Francisco, but the gap between Gload and Dobbs is greater. I'd leave Sweeney home.

P.S. Dobbs sucks but only a moron would run a team out there with one INF backup and Charlie is no moron.

I heard San Fransisco is going to try to lose the first two games...

They want to come from behind.

Zing.

Clout: I guess Charlie and Amaro are morons then, because Dobbs didn't make the roster.

Jack: When did they announce it? Haven't seen anything.

Clout: Phils' beat writers Dave Murphy and Zolecki both just tweeted that Brown made the roster and Dobbs did not. Kendrick is on.

Jack: Thanks. Very risky IMHO. You've got 3 infielders coming off injuries and only one other guy who can play any of those positions.

I'm glad they're keeping Brown, though. In a close game, he can be a weapon.

Not that I think they would've been "morons" to take Brown over Dobbs, but I am a little surprised. But all of the reasons why the move makes sense have already been stated in this, and other, threads:

1.) Without Brown there would be no speed on the bench;
2.) The only way Dobbs would play is if Rollins AND Polcanco get hurt;
3.) If Polanco is severely injured, he can be replaced on the roster with Dobbs; and finally
4.) Dobbs just isn't that good anymore.

A little surprised, but it makes sense to me.

I hope Ruiz kept his third baseman's mitt. And his second baseman's mitt. And Valdez has an outfielder's mitt.

Actually, I hope they all stay healthy and neither Valdez nor Oswalt is needed to play the outfield.

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