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Wednesday, October 27, 2010

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How to pitch to Werth: Walk the guy in front of him and throw a wild pitch to put him on 2B.

Threat neutralized.

Seriously though, yup, he's a huge loss and we wont be able to replace him next year.

On Uribe: Yeah, figures, doesnt it?

I will now light myself no fire.

"In fact, Uribe had hit no opposite field homers at all since 2008 before facing Madson in Game 6. And it was the second HR that Madson allowed to a RHB on a slider since 2008.”

add the fact that the ball would have gone out of maybe one other park besides CPB. In San Fran that would have been a routine shag. I still can't believe it went out.

Yup...it was at that moment that I knew for sure that the Baseball Gods were against us. It was the ultimate bandbox HR.

It's called media negotiations. If you use the media to say why you don't need the player and why he's adequate, then when it comes to bargaining, they can't call your bluff immediately. If Boras knew how much the Phils wanted to retain Werth, then he could hold out, get better offers and then make the Phils match. Amaro is good at his job. That's how he got Halladay and Oswalt on the cheap.

If it had gone out to left it would have been a Lieberthal special. The collective gasp from the fans was pronounced. All rally towels went limp.

Just the facts Ma'am:

1. Phils actually hit slightly better with RISP in the NLCS than the NLDS.

NLDS: 5-25 (.200)
NLCS: 8-39 (.205)

2. Howard didn't have lots of opportunities to come up big this postseason.

He had only 1 game (Game 6 of the NLCS) where he had one more AB with RISP (he went 1-3).

3. Howard was far from the biggest offender this postseaosn with RISP:

JRoll: 1-11
Vic: 2-10
Werth: 2-9
Howard: 1-7
Polanco: 3-6
Utley: 2-6
Ibanez: 1-6
Ruiz: 0-5
Valdez: 0-2
Gload: 0-1
Francisco: 0-1

Only guy who performed well this postseason was Polanco. JRoll was a zero except his big hit in Game 2 of the NLCS. Ditto Ruiz. Werth, Ibanez, and Vic weren't much better.

4. Howard lead the regulars this postseason in AVG (.303), OBP (.395), SLG (.424), and OPS (.816), XHB (4), and TB (14).

I am already tired of all the blame that is being heaped on Howard this offseason for his 'lack of RBIs/being clutch' in the postseason. If you want to knock him, do it for his defense which generally was horrendous this postseason.

So if anyone continues to wind about Howard's offensive woes this postseason being the reason why the Phils lost just quote Red Foreman:

"Wrong dumba$$."

The question is what is Werth expecting... I think the Phillies will give him Bay numbers... 4 years/16 per... and I agree and like it. Stick him in RF, and let Brown win the LF job from Raul, who comes off the books after next year anyway. Keep Gload,Ben Fran, Valdez, Schnieder and either Mayberry or Sweeney to fill out the roster... Very easy off-season, unless Werth is expecting more...

MG: Absolutely. And I know it's almost as unheard of as bashing Chase, but I continue to go back to the horrid pitch calls by Chooch throughout the series as well. When your offense is sputtering you cannot afford to get cute with hitters the caliber of Burrell, Ross, Rowand, etc...very out of character and very dishearterning.

The other alternative to Werth leaving is signing Beltre. And before you respond think of this, Amaro said we have the money for Werth, so we should have the money for Beltre if Werth's expectatiions are higher. I think signing Beltre and moving Polanco to 2B is a solid move. Utley will be LF and Brown RF, unless you can use Utley's value to package him with Raul for a decent OF.

Kevin: Beltre's a great player, as long as he's a free agent after the season. Utley's better.

MG, completely agree about Howard.

re: Werth-Find a way to sign him. That way, you don't have to worry about replacing him.

We could trade for Cuddyer
We could sign Ordonez short-term.

Both would be okay.

Beltre has a funny history of only being great in contract years....just sayin'.

Moving Utley (either to another position or via trade) is the dumbest thing they could ever consider doing.


Boras spouts off that Werth is the greatest player on earth who can play both CF and RF as a gold-glover and Amaro retorts to say "Yeah, well he sure sucked this year with RISP" and suddenly Amaro is the crazy one?

Rube is simply doing the same exact thing Boras always does (and 90% of people that post here).

Werth already turned down a Bay type deal and he's going into his Age 32 season. Giving him a long-term deal is probably a mistake.

The economy sucks. Other teams are hurting. Philly ought to be able to handle Werth's value as much as anybody. Rube needs to feed the beast.

read somewhere (and i think it was in the Hayes chat yesterday, so take it FWIW) that Boras' starting point is 6yrs/18mil

Steve: That 6 year term is a joke, but the $18K per is actually reasonable in this market. I would do 3 for $20 million and an option for a 4th.

Is Carlos Beltran a FA? I know that sounds funny....but he was torching it in September.

The minute Beltran came into camp with his own doctor and translator we would know that trade was a huge mistake. Let him keep "torching it" in Shtty Field.

In re: Uribe's "bandbox HR." According to hit tracker, that ball would have gone out in 10 parks -- SF included.

People forget that it's only 309 down the line in SF. Granted, the wall is 21 feet high, but a 346ft HR (which Uribe's was) goes out of SF. By contrast, Jayson Werth's HR in Game 5 at SF was 347 ft. and not as high as Uribe's -- 74 to 80 at their apex, respectively.

As lucky as the HR was, it doesn't matter if Game 6 was played home or away -- the ball was gone. So, any notion that we were robbed because of CBP is nonsensical.

Carlos Beltran? No thanks.

He is under contract for 2011 anyhow.

Billingsly: It was more shocking in the moment of watching it, and me without my slide rule couldnt measure it immediately to compare "who's was longer", him or Werth, although I did turn to my cousin and ask him to check his I-Phone for a home-run-comparison app in order to calculate the comparison. he couldn't find one but did locate a cool fart-sound ringtone. The fact is it was hit on a line and just didnt look high enough, Werth looked as if it was falling back to him at first, and it was hit off a Madsen slider. All of these factors made it pretty unbelievable.

I really think Rube will acquire a true lead-off hitter and trade victorino. He will also get RH bat to platoon with ibanez.

The line-up would look like so:
1.) Lead-off guy x
2.) Polly
3.) Utley
4.) Howard
5.) Rollins
6.) Ibanez/RH Bat Platoon
7.) Brown
8.) Ruiz

We should trade Vic for Nyjer Morgan, just hope he doesn't wing a baseball at Sam Donnelon during the signing press conference.

Joe: It was absolutely unbelievable/unlikely. I still can't believe that Uribe hit 24 HRs this season, let alone one to clinch to win the NLCS...on the road...with Madson pitching. It just doesn't add up. But, a HR is a HR is a HR, unfortunately.

At least finding the fart-sound ringtone made the search worth it.

Again I'll say this: What did people think Amaro was going to say? I know Jack has some idea what he should've said but really- what percentage of GM's in the 4 major sports would position a statement that way? It just doesn't happen. GM's are part talent evaluator, part businessman, and part salesman. My guess is Amaro would love to be able to sign Werth but is not going to have the funds to do so. With that being the case he needs to sell the move as not that big a loss.

What is nice about this line-up is that you have Ibanez and Rollins off the books in 2012, so they could get a true 5th hole RH batter for the outfield...and either resign Rollins or get something comparable for the 7 hole.

Phillies fans are such miserly people.

The post season is tailor made for such unexpected and crushing moments, and you just pray your team isn't on the receiving end (see Bill Buckner, Joe Carter, Kirk Gibson, Dave Parker, Cody f&*^^#n Ross, Kirby Puckett, etc...)

According to the Mayan calendar there will also be plenty of cap space to work with beginning in 2013, as well as season ticket availability...

GMs do not tell the truth in the off season. Agents do not tell the truth in the off season. But speculation is fun.

Jacoby Ellsbury?

Preferance is that the Phils resign Werth to a Bay style deal. But id he doesn't, then maybe they could take the money you save by not resigning Werth and instead spend it on Scott Downs, Jesse Crain, Marcus Thames, and Bill Hall. Maybe see if Boston would like to dump Cameron and pay most of his contract, he destroyed lefty pitching last year and wasn't very popular with the FO if I remember right.

If you can't get a power righty bat than Amaro needs platoon hitters and an improved bench along with relievers to shutdown the 7th inning (or 5th & 6th inning if H2O isn't on the mound). Just my 2 cents on what to do if Werth prooves too expensive.

If the post season starts September 1st next year we will kick some ass...

If you want to get younger, acquiring Mike Cameron isn't the correct move.

Spending big money AND losing a draft pick for Downs is pretty dumb too.

Speaking of misclassification on this article by Smallwood

"I prefer calm and measured reasoning to the over-the-top response fueled by emotion."

In what capacity has Amaro shown that he is calm and measured? If anyone as a GM, he has shown that he wil be a first-mover in a market in order to get what he wants regardless of the cost and that he has a dogged determination almost transfixation on certain issues/players (see Halladay).

Amaro is alot of things as the GM so far. 'Calm and measured' style of leadership aren't attributes I would associate with Amaro's tenure as the GM to date.

Redburb- it's a short term 1 year move to get you through till you can find something else. In 2010 Ibanez OPS vs Righties .822 and Cameron's OPS vs lefties 1.128. gets you to 2012 when both their contracts end. And, hopefully in 2012 you have a better idea of what you have in the low minors now and a new set of FA's to pick from.

NEPP: I realize Downs is a Type A. But, I was just using him as an exaple of a lefty reliever who's actually good. fill in whoever you like, but if the Phillies can't afford Werth and go with Brown/Francisco, then they have to improve around the margins. That's really my point. But thanks for the constructive criticism.

With all the great storylines for this WS, Hamilton and Ron Washington's stories, Cliff Lee's heroics, Molina's possible last hurrah, Vlads finally getting a ring, I guarantee that Joe and Tim focus intently on more important and riveting issues like great facial hair.

Notice I didnt name any great storylines for the Giants, because there are none.

Dont get me wrong, I'd love to have Downs but losing that pick hurts...even though we will be getting 2 picks for Werth and maybe even 1 for Durbin (as a Type B) if we risk offering him arbitration (though I doubt we will to be honest).

cant forget pandas, beards and long hair. all those are great storylines.

NEPP: unless they sign C___ L___ like one columnist suggested, and then trade Oswalt for a hitter. But that seems to have too many moving parts to actually occur. I mean who would acquire one #1 starter and then trade another one off? Crazy.

NEPP: well, there's the two we're going to get for Cliff L--- oh, wait.

Just a quick note as we've had this come up a couple times of late:

Resigning Jayson Werth to a Bay type contract is not an option. He already turned it down and Boras is looking for Holliday type money (good luck, Scott) for him.

My "guess" is Werth ends up with around 5 years, $80 million. Way too much really.

***NEPP: unless they sign C___ L___ like one columnist suggested, and then trade Oswalt for a hitter. ****

IF we were to sign Lee, we'd get nothing for Oswalt. I'm basing this on Rube's previous experience trading an Ace when he HAD to. Teams would know we HAD to trade him. Besides, we dont have the money for Lee and Halladay and Hamels and Blanton. (you'd be looking at over $60 million for the 4 of them before Oswalt's salary).

NEPP: like I said, I don't see that happening. But unless Wade gets a hankering to move Hunter Pence for a bag of balls, I don't know where you get an everyday righty bat for RF. Sooo, my point remains that you have to improve around the margins to try to makeup for the downgrade in RF and the 5 hole.

My issue with what Amaro said is that (assuming it was said cynically--if he actually believes Ibanez was as good as Werth, that's a whole different story): it's condescending to the fans, irrelevant in terms of negotiating (you think Boras is going to say "oh, good point, he struggled with RISP, I'll totally take a deal on your terms now"?), and simply bad policy to trash players on their way out the door.

I wouldn't run a business that way.

NEPP: But when Amaro trades Ibanez, Blanton, and Gillies to the Brewers for Ryan Braun, I'll be ready to declare him the greatest GM in the history of the world.

Remeber when Boras claimed Oliver Perez was the next Sandy Koufax and the Mets bought it?

Jack: Amaro knew a month ago (at least) he wasn't going to re-sign Werth. It's not like he is hurting his negotiating power with Boras. It's been clear for a while he had no intention of bringing back Werth.

It's only condescending to the fans who know that Werth's numbers this year with RISP were a bit of an anomaly- and that number of fans is small. Hell even people on here (more often than not, more hardcore fans) pointed out that RISP number as a means for not re-signing Werth.

You're holding Amaro to a standard that almost no other GM would reach. Again- what percentage of GM's do you think would openly gush over a player knowing there is no way they are signing them to a contract?

It may take until February, but Werth is gone. Time to find a righthanded hitter to platoon with Brown. Don't say Francisco. Ryan Howard didn't take the worst strike three in that game. Why was Chooch bunting anyway? I digress. Francisco won't hit consistently, can't run much, and his defense stinks. I'd make a play for Francoeur. He's still young, with multiple tools. I could see him making a resurgence at CBP with the promise he could earn regular playing time just like Werth did.

TTI: You don't have to gush about him. Something as simple as "He was a very good player for us, and hopefully we can work something out. If not, we wish him the best of luck."

It's condescending, arrogant, and reflects poorly on the organization to try and bring down a guy as they're leaving. It frankly reflects a certain level of insecurity as well, to feel like you have to sell the fans on keeping Ibanez instead of Werth (it's pretty obvious the 3-year deal for Raul was a terribly costly mistake now), when as JW points out, everyone knows Werth is better, even the masses.

If I were running a $700 million business, I wouldn't want the spokesman for my organization talking like that, personally.

Trade Oswalt to the Brewers for Corey Hart and then give Jaime Moyer a new, 3 year deal.

As much as I'd love to keep Werth in town, I just don't see it happening. And I agree with everyone who says whoever signs him will regret it.

Ordonez* on a one year deal at a low base salary with incentives seems like a pretty good gamble to make. An OF of Vic plus some configuration of Ibanez/Ordonez/Francisco/Brown would probably be sufficient. Not great, mind you, but good enough. Depending on how the season plays out, we may end up with two regular platoons.

*IF AND ONLY IF he is not offered arbitration.

You could probably swap Diaz for Ordonez, as he might not be much worse than Ordonez right now in their respective careers. Both should see a vast majority of their ABs against lefties anyway.

The other alternatives just aren't that hot. Dye missed a year. Guys like DeRosa and Cabrera and Francoeur don't interest me at all. Ross will likely be too expensive and his career numbers aren't too hot. If by some chance Ross is non-tendered, I could see us trying for him, but I have a feeling we would end up disappointed if we got him.

Some have floated some interesting trade names around, such as Cuddyer and Ellsbury. I have no clue what would be required to get them, but I would be very hesitant to give up a blue chipper that would surely be required. A Colvin/Cosart/Singleton type should not be considered for this type of acquisition.

Lastly, there is some merit to trying to get a true leadoff type. I wonder if the Astros would consider Vic + a very good pitching prospect or multiple average prospects in order to reacquire Michael Bourn.

It seems to me that most championship-caliber teams include a key player who flourishes after being picked off the scrap heap. Someone who finally gets a chance to realize their seemingly squandered potential, or someone who seemed spent, but actually wasn't yet. The Phils had this in 2008 Victorino and Werth, the Red Sox had it in 2007 with Mike Lowell, the Rangers have it now with Josh Hamilton. Buying low. Since it's inherently risky, it's a much easier thing for teams to do when they're building, much harder when they're established, when everyone suddenly has expectations of nonstop winning. The problem with people like Cody Ross, Adrian Beltre (and even Jayson Werth) is that buying them now is buying them high. I think to fix this problem Rube needs to do some dumpster-diving.

Zudok, Brown will be a full time player (either ML or AAA). There is no platooning him. The platoon will be with Ibanez....Frenchie is just what this team needs....another guy who can't hit a breaking ball.

You know what? Bourn and Vic are both scheduled to become free agents after 2012. I was thinking we'd have Bourn for longer, but given this, it doesn't make much sense.

Trade Utley for Steve Scarsone...

Remember how Vic signed an extension? He would have been a free agent after 2010 had he not done that.

"If there is an easy way to handle Jayson Werth, it's not obvious."

It's not? We just put a runner on second base before he bats.

I say we give Vince Papale a try.

"the Rangers have it now with Josh Hamilton"

The Rangers traded the tantalizing, if not fully formed yet, Edinson Volquez for Hamilton. The Reds were the team that gave Hamilton the chance off the scrapheap.

Glad to see the pix of Jason Werth wearing the Flyers jersey. My esteem for the man heightened when I saw him attending a Flyers playoff game attired in a similar jersey; which meant to me that he was not only a ball player who played in this town but a guy who rooted for the local teams. In other words, a fan of Philadelphia sports teams, just like the rest of us.

Hopefully, he stays put, because I don't think the alternative looks too good.

In contrast, Gregg Dobbs will be attending the Sixers game tonight in a Matt Geiger throwback....

"Gregg Dobbs will be attending the Sixers game tonight in a Matt Geiger throwback...."
That's cruel, at least Dobbs tried to play the game. (As to whether the Phils were better off for this, that's a different discussion)

Werth'll be wearing a Islanders (Bruins?) sweater next year.

Is it me or does Werth look like an extra from 'Youngblood' in that picture?

He looks like Manson getting turned down for his latest parole hearing.

Jack - Exactly. Amaro's gets a pass on his public persona since this team has been incredibly success and he has made more right moves than wrong ones thus far. Fans & media though will turn on him much faster than they did say Billy King because of Amaro's personality if the Phils gradually begin to level off a bit over the next 2-3 years.

Amaro is a puppet. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain (Pat Gillick).

"Trade Oswalt..." You do remember that Oswalt as a not trade clause, and it was (allegedly) hard enough to get him to come to Philly, right? Oswalt is not going anywhere.

"Zudok, Brown will be a full time player (either ML or AAA). There is no platooning him."

Not sure there, Zudok.

um, why is Ryan Madson throwing a slider?

You don't platoon a kid who needs the experience...If he is only playing half the time, send him down to AAA so he can see LH pitching...the baseball acumen on this website is astounding sometimes.

i was at the game, and i havent bothered watching a replay/hightlight, so i dont know what MAdson's pitch looked like - but I'm pretty sure it wasn't a slider.

Maybe it was the cutter he was throwing away from RHB, i.e. Game 5 strikeouts?

Utley platooned with Polanco because he wa very vulnerable to LHP. He eased into hitting lefties and now excels at it (career wise at least, not lately).

"He eased into hitting lefties and now excels at it (career wise at least, not lately)."

Lately? Have you looked at his splits for 2010? He hit lefties MUCH better than righties.

Anyway, I'm sure Madson threw a cutter that didn't cut. He's said that in the bullpen he knew his cutter wasn't moving as much as it had the previous game.

NoNameFame: The reason to platoon Brown is more to ease him into the everyday role. Look at Werth. He played for awhile in a platoon with Jenkins before he overtook the everyday job. He played well enough to earn it. Let Dom Brown do the same. We all seem so sure he will, but let's see him do it at the major league level before declaring him ready to be an everyday player.

There is also the added benefit that by having a fallback, you take pressure off Brown. He will be less likely to press and get away from his game. Also, if by chance he does struggle (he's a rookie, it's a near guarantee that it will happen), you can play the other guy for a couple games while Brown clears his head. However, if this happens frequently enough, then he should be sent to play every day at AAA.

Lastly, if Brown truly plays well enough out of the shoot to earn the everyday job, you can use the other player to give Ibanez some more rest or even platoon him. This allows Francisco to settle into a 4th OF role as opposed to a platoon.

Rollins
Vic
Werth
Howard
Polanco
Utley
Brown/Ben Fran
Ruiz

Ibanez
Mayberry
Gload
Schneider

Roy
Cole
Roy
Blanton
?????

Madson
Lidge

krukker, I just think that Brown won't get better against LHP unless he sees it regularly. We are fairly positive Ibanez can't catch up to some pitchers and should be a clear candidate for a straight platoon.

I do hear your point though, I just don't think it is the best for Brown's development.

huge issue, kevin....where is your middle infield backup?????? Valdez needs to be resigned bc he can play 3B, SS, and 2B. Mayberry belongs at the local Shop'n'bag as a cart wrangler.

****You don't platoon a kid who needs the experience...****

Utley platooned, Werth platooned, etc etc. Sitting him against tough LHPs is not a bad thing. Lots of guys start as platoon bats...especially on teams where winning is more important than player development.

Jack: How many GM's do you think that are in the 4 major sports would do something like that?

Like I said- a GM has to be part salesmen as well. It would be far more alarming if Amaro went out and said, "Well we really like Werth and he's a valuable guy." and then do nothing to sign him. Amaro isn't holding these press conferences or saying those things for people on this board. He's saying it for the masses that go to CBP. Most of them will buy the rationale (for now) and let it go.

And as far as MG comparing the possible backlash to Amaro as similar to what Billy King experienced is laughably stupid. If you want a prime example of a guy who had no idea what he was doing as a GM- King would be people's exhibit #1.

The cutter . . . Madson's kryptonite

R: the word "lately" was reference to his playoffs, not his 2010 season.

You raise a good point; he will be slower to develop against LHP. The same was true of Utley when he first came up, as someone just pointed out. In time, Utley became just as good against LHP.

I think it comes down to the fact that I would rather see Brown crush RHP and be below average vs LHP then develop more slowly against both. Until I know he can hit well against RHP, there's less incentive to expose him to LHP.

How about making a play for Juan Pierre?

Trade away Vic. Let Brown Start RF. Pierre Cennter.

Pierre has one year left on his deal with

Chicago and is pretty damn good leadoff, although he is aging.

1.) Pierre
2.) Polanco
3.) Utley
4.) Howard
5.) Rollins
6.) Ibanez
7.) Brown
8.) Ruiz

Go after a few relief specialists. add to consistent Contereas + Madson + Brad Lidge on the heels of Hamels-Halladay-Oswalt.

Funny thing is that it was a good pitch and one that Uribe had no business hitting out of the park.

Its not like Madson hung it. It was a 90 mph cutter/slider outside and low. 99 times out of 100, Uribe either takes it for a ball, swings and misses or weakly pops out.

or Davis from Oakland. Oakland claimed him off waivers last year, if not mistaken.

TTI: Long Live Samuel Dalembert!

Noname, I just left Valdez off on accident... I like what he brings, and think we should bring him back

Jayson Werth, even with the numbers he puts up, is not worth and never will be worth 20 million a year for 5 years.

If he doesn't move off that, end of discussion.

Its leadership/persona style. Amaro comes off as very self-assured and smug at best, at worst it is conscendion of others around him and arrogance. Those aren't ideal leadershipship characteristics in most situations.

So we want a GM who is not self-assured?

That would certainly be interesting.

The amount of guff Amaro gets for his personality astounds me. I doubt any of you really know what he's like in person, nor do I think any of the players really care what he says if he pays them what they want and their checks clear.

"How about making a play for Juan Pierre?

Trade away Vic. Let Brown Start RF. Pierre Cennter.

Pierre has one year left on his deal with "

Why would anyone want Pierre except as a 4th/5th OF?

Juan Pierre can't play CF any more (he really wasn't that good out there to start with). No games in '10, 33 games in CF the last three years. Very good base stealer still but not exceptional (3:1 ratio lifetime), no arm -- I don't know you but would bet a 10 spot that you have a better arm. Slightly above average OBP (not too far from Vic) but no power at all. He's had an 84 OPS+ or less 5 of the last 6 years. He's 33.

In a nutshell, banish that idea from your head. :)

TTI: I don't think very many GMs would claim that Ibanez was as good as Werth, and publicly try to diminish what Werth has accomplished here. You rarely see GMs do things like this, and it usually looks petty when they do.

Sorry, it just isn't the thing to do. It looks desperate more than anything else, to make a laughable claim just to try and "sell" a move to your fans. It's condescending of both you and Amaro to think anyone besides a very small minority actually believes what he said.

BB - You can't judge or take a stab at what a CEO's leadership persona/characteristics from what he says to the public especially one who has to speak so frequently to the media on a number of issues on such a regular basis? That doesn't make much sense.

TTI - Self-assured yeah but that can take many forms. Jack is right in that Amaro did publicly diminish down what Werth did. Did he say he was terrible and the team would be better off without him? No, but he did it in a matter that likely would have been handled a bit differently than other GMs.

Get creative and backload a contract. Pay less next year till Raul is gone. If not, Burrell's available.

Jack: many people in baseball replace RBI with "produce runs", which is where Ruben compared the two players.

I took it as Ibanez had the same type of "production" than Werth had in 2010 - meaning their RBI totals were similiar(83-85).

Every negotiator in any sense will grab a hold of that type of stat and try to spin it in their favor, including everyone on this blog. Overall, Werth blew away Ibanez in 2010 bt they still had the same RBI numbers, so that lets Amaro say that both players were similiar in producing runs.

I really dont think you should look into it more than that.

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