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Wednesday, October 13, 2010


Game 2 will be brutal as it likely won't end until midnight thansk to all of Fox's commercials.

Without knowing much about online simulators - what type of logic must you code in to get it to spit out a greg dobbs and wilson valdez HR in the same game?

All the talk since the Rangers won last night is whether they need to pitch Cliff Lee in Game 2 on short rest if they want to beat the Yankees.

I believe there were similar conversations in Philly last year...with the difference being that we were able to pit him against C.C. in the first game, at least.

Based on the results, I'm not sold on the realism of this simulator. "whatifsports" should rename itself "bizarroworldsports."

If FOX can put a hit out on the whistler guy, I'll stay up however late to watch the game.

b-ref ranked the top 1-2-3 rotations in the LCS by WAR over past 15 years:

2001 DBacks are highest at 18.5 WAR - haha but its all because Schilling and Johnson were off the charts since Miguel Bautista was their #3.

2010 Phils were #6m at 16.7 WAR.

One I would have never guessed were 03 Cubs With Prior Wood and Zambrano. Wow - what could have been for those poor Cubbies.

NEPP- Monday mornings are not my favorite times either, particuarly after a late Sunday.
But this if playoff baseball- focus, man, focus!

If we win I won't care how late it goes, if we lose I'll be miserable even if I did get a full night's sleep.

"a dream team of Beerleaguer All-Stars"
I would like to know clout's WHIP. Did you go with BAP or NEPP in the first double switch?

2010 Dobbs: 32.6 AB/HR (5 total)
2010 Gload: 21.3 AB/HR (6 total)

eat it clout.

I just ran the 2010 Phils vs. the 1980 Phils. Lidge blew the save (LOL) on a Bowa solo shot but some singles by Werth, Ibanez, Vic, Rollins and a Chooch walked plated two in the top of the 10th with Madson nailing the door shut in the bottom of the tenth.

Small sample size, of course.

MZ: Lidge must have been rattled by the mounted police and german sheperds across the warning track....

Nice quote from Nolan Ryan:

"Cliff Lee is as confident as any pitcher I've ever seen," Ryan said. "And the thing that makes you marvel is, he doesn't have a put-away pitch. He doesn't have a devastating slider, or velocity that blows people away, or a sinker that eats hitters up. But he's so confident in his ability to throw the ball where he wants it, and he pitches to both sides of the plate. It's unbelievable. This was as outstanding a performance in a pressure situation as I've ever seen."

We are not playing the Pirates here!

All the NY pundits are convince Lee will be a Yankee next year. Do the Rangers have the money to go after him?

Yankees in 6 or 7.

I always got a chuckle when long-haired Jaromir Jagr touched the puck back in the day and the crowd whistled at him like he was a chick. I'd like to see something similar when Tammy Lincicum has the ball or comes to bat this Saturday. It may not phase him but it would amuse me and that is what it is all about.

Someone posted on the last thread that they were already tired of the Rangers being a young, likeable team and the Phillies being the big, bad empire.

Well, deal with it. If you wanna have success like the Yankees, people are gonna treat you like the Yankees. You'd rather just be winning your first postseason series in history? Nope.

Yanks vs. Phils II - ???

Andy - Yeah it definitely is more 'bizarroworldsports' because the last time Dobbs had 3 hits in a game was July 9th vs. Reds in 2009 (4-6).

It would be interesting to see a list of the best postseason pitchers of the past 15-20 years.

My list would include Schilling at the top of that list with Lee quickly zooming up to 1. Watched that game late and he was just as impressive last night as he was last year for the Phils in the postseason.

Would be too ironic for words if the Rangers defeat the Phils and you-know-who is named Series MVP.

MG: Include Livan Hernandez, with special thanks to the late Eric Gregg.....

The Rangers aren't to be overlooked in a series with the Yankees. They have good starting pitching.

If Lee wins both games he starts (Games 3 and Game 7), I think CJ Wilson, Tommy Hunter or Colby Lewis between them could probably eke out two wins over the rest of the series.

The Rangers were a pretty futile franchise so it's nice to see them win something for once. Reminds me of the Phillies a few years ago.

I think the value in simulations is supposed to be running them 10,000 times to get rid of sample size anomalies.

There's no way Lee goes back to the Rangers. They only signed him to help out their marketability due to the financial straits the team is in, it was a business decision that I dont even believe the team thought would have landed them on the steps of a World Series, it worked out better than they thought.

the tweets about Lee coming out of Yankee land are just obnoxious. I greatly look forward to the day when the Yankees are paying about $55 million a year to 3 DH's in their 40's (Posada, A-Rod & Jeter)

Fox is brodcasting the games ! I hope they ship Joe Buck, off to the ALCS.

It would be nice to see the Yanks go the way the Cowboys did in the late 90s, overpaying their aging stars and relying on free agency rather than cultivating young talent to continue their dynasty. It's no coindence that the Yanks didnt obtain Lee or Doc this season. Even with their bloated payroll they are committed to overpaying their aging stars.

Casey, TBS is broadcasting ALCS, Fox is broadcasting NLCS. So don't think Joe Buck is going anywhere.

There was a slew of rumors a couple weeks ago about the Rangers new TV deal with FoxSports Southwest. Some estimates were $3B / 20 years. More reasoned reporting put the overall value at half that. $75-80M a year is a nice boost to cash flow. Even nicer if they swung the deal to front end some of that money to help them put talent like Lee on the field for the next 5 years, which could be a win /win for the team and the network. I have no idea what the reality is but, it's nice to think that the Rangers' new owners have some angle on competing for the next several years, as opposed to what will happen in Tampa now that their season is ended.

"It's no coindence that the Yanks didnt obtain Lee or Doc this season. Even with their bloated payroll they are committed to overpaying their aging stars. "

They didn't obtain Lee b/c for some reason the Mariners wanted Justin Smoak more than Montero. They didn't obtain Halladay b/c Halladay had a no trade clause and the Blue Jays didn't want to trade him in the division, thus limited the number of teams both sides were willing to consider.

I agree with your central point, though, about how I hope the Yankees end up crippling themselves by paying out of contracts for aging players. A nice run of futility for the Yankees would be great.

Joe: That's what happened to the Yanks in the early-mid 00s.

I'd be surprised if they let it happen again, after seeing how it failed to work then, but you never know.

I forgot to add Oswalt into the mix as well, they were not in that running either. Also, with the Boss now occupying the big penthouse in the sky they may not be as aggressive as they used to be regardless of the financial ramifications. It would be unheard of in year's past for them not to have landed at least one of those arms.

Not to make a personal attack but Jack you gotta take life on this board less seriously. I am just predicting that once the Rangers beat the now flagging Yankees starters that they will be considered the lovable underdogs and the b-cast hype machine will turn a team nobody gives a damn about into the young media darlings. As such, I predict we will all be making fun of it. We already saw them act like Chase was equal parts Pete Rose/Ty Cobb sharpening his cleats and beating up handicapped people in the stands because he took a free base and slid the way everybody slides into him. I am not seriously expecting anybody on the nationwide b-casts to love a team from Philly, especially one that has been taking care of business.

My simulation has us getting shut out for 6 straight innings by Lincecum before breaking it open in the 6th and 7th, winning 6-1. Halladay pitched a CG with 12 K and 1 HR to Jose Guillen.

Sounds good to me.

No doubt the Phillies will be last on the list of lovable teams going forward. Buck and McCarver will begin their drool-fest over Linsecum despite Doc's reputation, Texas will be the underdog team with endless focus on the past issues of Washington and Hamilton, and the Yankees will of course take first rank with endless stories of Cano as 2nd base phenom, Mariano as the ageless wonder, Jeter as the non-headline grabbing Il Capitano, Jorge as a pitcher's best friend in the world, A-Rod as a changed player from spoiled self-centered brat to true Yankee that cares only about his team and respects his captain, blah blah blah...The Phillies have no such storylines because they are loaded with quality players who are also quality people, and all they do is win. And that's fine with me.

Oh and dont forget endless tributes and references to Steinbrenner and 143 year old Bob Sheppard...

Bob Sheppard on the PA was one of the few highlights at Yankee stadium.

Does a martyr complex go along with being unendingly pessimistic as qualifications for being a Phillies fan?

Does it ever occur to folks so convinced that Philadelphia teams never get respect from the national press that (some) fans of all teams make exactly the same complaint? Do you think that your conviction that the Phillies are uniformly slighted might be rooted in your pro-Phillies bias, and that the only coverage you'd think would reflect reality would be coverage that actually portrays the Phillies in an unrealistically positive manner?

Take is easy, phlipper, you apparently didn't suffer through most of the 10,000 losses like the rest of us. If we have a negativity complex you should understand.

The Philadelphia slight has been evident since the 1980 series, when Joe Garagiola was fawning over the Royals the entire series. Same deal in 1993 when we were portayed as escaped convicts (which was an image we didnt help to suppress), plus the endless bashing of our fan behavior through good teams and bad. I'd rather it be that way though, it makes it sweeter when we win and the commentators have to ackowledge our dominance.

If anyone here suffered through all 10,000 losses, kudos to you and your typing skills.

I only suffered through about 3,000 of them. Give or take.

MG - And I think one of those hits was off Janish.

phlipper - Yes.

I live here in NY and the Phillies are much respected in the NY Times and the Post (trashy but poplar paper and lots of sports)where the writers suggest for the Mets not to look at the Yankees for lessons but to instead look at the Phillies.

Also there was a piece in the NY Times today noting that the hot tickets this year are Giants vs. Phillies not the Yankees!
Also note that we got prime time from Fox on Saturday night and the Yankees are on at 4PM.

So folks we have arrived--it has alwasy been about marketing. Recall there was a movie with "I'd rather be here than in Philly" well that is changing.

Finally it would be a real stinko, as someone suggested earlier, if we faced the Rangers and Lee beat the pants off us.
Keep in mind that yes we have Oswald and we have him for next year but we could have had Lee and then got that catcher from the Yankees and more!

RK, I read some of the stories in the Times and the Post about the Phils and I agree but with a caveat. I don't think the Post is so much pro-Phils as they are bashing the Mets who don't measure up to the beloved Yankees. To me, being anti-Mets is about as good as being pro-Phillies.

As the song goes, you gotta get a gimmick. Rangers have antlers, what do the Phillies have? Just kidding!

Seriously, I think the Phillies have been commanding quite a bit of respect this year in the national media.

But yes, everyone - not just media, but fans, too - loves a good story about rising from obscurity to the upper echelon of the sport....Cinderella story, rooting for the underdog. I always root for the underdog myself, unless the Phillies are involved. I would have been happy to cheer on the Padres, the Reds, and I'll still be happy to cheer on the Rangers should it be a Rangers v. Giants WS. (I'm not sure the Rangers would be the underdog in that case.) But that's largely because of Cliff Lee. I guess I choose him over Pat Burrell - Pat has a ring already.

When I used to go to Shea in the late 80s (when the Mets were geat and we sucked) the fans said it was worse to go there with a Yankees hat than a Phillies hat. Only saw us win one time up there, Schmidt and Samuel hit dingers. That place was a dump.

OP - There were at least 10,000 losses between September 20 and October 4, 1964.

I don't get the notion that this Phillies team is slighted by the National media. On TBS last night, when Eckersley was praising Lee, he mentioned Hamels along with Lee as maybe the two best left handed starters in the game.

On Mike & Mike this morning, they were ranking the remaining playoff aces, and Greeny stated that if he set up his rotation right now, it would be Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Sabathia. And this is after Lee's had 7 straight dominating postseason starts, and Halladay's had only one (though it was a no-no).

The national media respects the hell out of htis Phillies team, and nearly EVERY pundit picked the Phils to win everything, some going as far as to guarantee it.

As far as building the Rangers up as a "lovable bunch", they should, because the Rangers are a great team to root for. I love rooting for Lee, Guerrero, Hamilton, Young, Wilson, Feliz. These are all great players, and they play the game the right way. It would be a great service to baseball if the Rangers get into the World Series for all the nation to see. They are a great team, with great chemistry, and a bunch of great characters. I want nothing more than to meet them in the WS.

This small man's complex here on BL, and in Philadelphia in general, needs to die, and it needs to die quickly.

Should we give you +10 for WC Fields reference or +2 for Die Hard reference?

I apparently didn't win the ticket lottery, so I looked at Stub Hub and it's $200 a pop for standing room only "seats" for Saturday's game at the moment.

Is that when we had to win one game out of the remaining 10,000 games and lost 10,000 in a row? Man no wonder my dad and uncles were so agitated......

So, RK, for which game are we going to meet for a BL night at Wogie's?

Actually, I don't root for the underdog necessarily. I root for whichever franchise has waited longest for a WS title. In 2005, I couldn't make up my mind between the White Sox- who hadn't won in like 100 years, and the Astros - who'd never won. Looking back, I can't believe I'd vascillate. The Astros were more likeable. I didn't care for A.J. Pierzinski. My son loved(s) the Astros and still maintains that there WAS no WS in 2005. :)

I understand the complex, Ollie, I'm just giving y'all a hard time.

There's no doubt that all national broadcasters absolutely hate the Phillies, and all umpires make calls against the Phillies whenever they get a chance.

And it's not just baseball, either. The NHL refs are also out to get the Flyers.

Andy - I heard Joe Buck make a reference to Wogie's once. Looked it up on the web but it didn't seem like much. They show Philly sports on the TV screens?

The only thing more unbearable than listening to Joe Buck doing a baseball game was his cable TV show.

So who had the better game; Cole Hamels in the NLDS clincher or Cliff Lee in the ALDS clincher?

Cole Hamels:

9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 9 SO, 0 BB, 119 Pitches, 82 for strikes, Game Score: 86

Cliff Lee:

9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 11 SO, 0 BB, 120 Pitches, 90 for strikes, Game Score: 82

As amazing as Lee was last night, it's hard to believe that Hamels was actually better.

Lee's masterpiece last night, after only 15 postseason games, is only the 4th best postseason pitching performance of this year!


Last night I realized that the worst trade in recent Phillies history was not trading away Abreu in a salary dump for a handful of less than magic beans. The worst trade in recent Phillies history was Junior trading away he who will not be named in a salary dump for a handful of less than magic bean prospects. I loved he who will not be named when he was with the Phillies last season. I looked forward to seeing he who will not be named in a Phillies uniform for many years. It was not to be because Junior traded him away for.....what? Who knows?

Then in Junior's midseason panic, he picked up Roy O's salary. Am I missing something???

Fat -- the numbers may be there, but in the elimination game Lee faced much more pressure and he carried the team on his shoulders. If Cole has the same opportunity I hope he shows us what he's made of.

I call BOGUS! Greg Dobbs goes 3 for 4, while Ross Gload and DOMONIC BROWN both draw 0-fors???


10,000 losses are a lot to ehdure, it takes more than one lifetime.
But, just like a relief pitcher gets inherited runners sometimes when he enters a game, Phillies fans get inherited losses from their dads when they eneter the ballpark for the first time as a kid .

Worst trade in recent Phillies history was by far the Schilling trade to AZ for Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee and Vincente Padilla. Results: 2 world series rings for Schilling and a ticket to Cooperstown.

Actually make that 3 rings....

Going further back we traded away Ferguson Jenkins and Ryne Sandberg, too.

Ollie, the question of who's performance was more impressive is subjective. I agree that Lee's was more impressive for the reasons you stated, but from an objective standpoint, Hamels pitched a better game. That's all i was saying.

Cole was pitching with house money, and he more than doubled his earnings.

Also, Cole has nothing to prove about his postseason mettle. Unless anyone here's forgotten, Cole had ice in his veins in 2008, and carried us on his shoulders to a championship. He looks to be that guy once again.

Shane Victorino:
"I can't look that far. That's the story you write if we get to the World Series. But do I want to play the team that made us their 27th notch? Damn right I want to play them. And beat them."

Lee is trying to dethrone Schilling as the ultimate Yankee killer. Schill still holds that title. He dominated them with the Phillies during interleague play, then beat them with both AZ and Boston for his rings. Tough to top that resume.

Joe C, I always thought you were a 50ish Irish guy from South Philly.

Bubba, my dad never gets worked up for any Philly team until they are in the playoffs. I always chalked it up to him being a working guy who always hates to hear when these guys get millions of dollars for "playing a kid's game". It was only a few years ago that I realized his Navy papers show him coming home right in time for that 1964 collapse. I now attribute that. That and when they kick a field goal now, they don't let a bunch of city kids beat on each other to take the football as goes through the H shaped uprights like they did at Franklin Field.

FAT: I think it might be unfair to compare CL's performance on the basis of hits and runs. He got bit by the BABIP bug. In the run scoring inning, there were two hits I can think of that were on great pitches. One was on a swinging bunt that went about 15 feet that neither Molina nor Lee could field. Lee made his pitch, just got really unlucky. Another hit was I believe it was Zobrist poked a ball on the corner of the strike zone and it got perfectly over the first baseman and in front of the right fielder.

Both of those hits were pretty flukey. I don't think it was necessarily representative of the way CL was dealing.

I'm not taking anything away from Hamels or anyone else who pitched in the postseason. Just saying that I feel uncomfortable comparing and drawing firm conclusions due to some bad luck on Lee's part.

Does the game score take this stuff into account, or does it just tally up the hits, strikeouts, pitches, runs, etc and make it into a score?

Fed I don't know if you are missingsomething but Happ would still be ina Phils uniform! Along with Halliday, Hamels, and Lee
Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

I really don't know whether broadcasters are biased against one team or another. I think sometimes how good of a story one team is or another leads them to play a certain angle up, which can appear biased.

One thing I know for certain however. FOX is REALLY REALLY hoping that there isn't a Giants/Rangers World Series.

RG: Close, South Philly Italian guy and 40ish. Everything I learned about '64 I got from the older members of the family, and it's amazing that to this day even with our sucess since that year and recent sucess it still pains them to talk about that year and how brutal it was to endure those losses.

that was Lake Fred I don't know if you are missing something but we are: Happ would still be in a Phils uniform! Along with Halliday, Hamels, and Lee

You think about it.

Joe C, I remember some years back going to an interleague game where Schilling notched 19 Ks vs. the Yanks at the Vet. We waited after the game and my son got him to autograph his BB card after the game. Great day.

Joe Cowley:

Yes, my dad still has bad memories of 1964. He will mention it, but doesn't like to talk about it. It is amazing how sports memories (both good and bad) can be so emotional, even 40 years later.

I remember that well, I believe it was a Sunday afternoon game in August, remember listening to most of the game on the way home from the shore and watching the end on TV. He totally dominated a Yankee squad that was at the height of its run, got stronger as the game went on.

Heather, I agree that Lee did get a little unlucky on that squibber, but the baserunner who actually scored that inning got on by beating out a well hit ball in the hole at shortstop, and then the run was knocked in on a well hit single to center field. Even if Lee fields that squibber and throws the runner out at first, the other runner still advances to second, and the single that follows still drives him in.

lee was fantastic, absolutely fantastic, and whatever margin Hamels was better by was slim, but Hamels gave up 0 runs and less hits in the same amount of innings. Lee had two more strike outs.

I think Hamels has the better line, but Lee pitched the more impressive game, given the context.

Also, Game Score is a novelty that just tallies the nubmers into a formula. I think it's fun to compare, but it's nearly meaningless as just a straight comparison, though, achieving certain game scores (94+) is really impressive.

Andy, I vaguely remember about 3,000 of those losses. The other 7,000 just don't ring a bell.

Joe C,

Those Yankee scenarios that the press will likely hype are enough to make any Phillies fan retch.

I don't mind the Hamilton saga though, as long as they don't go overboard (which they probably will). It is a great story about a terrific player. From what I have read, he was really way down and out. And for me anyway, the Rangers celebrating with soda instead of champagne out of respect for Hamilton says something about the team - something positive.

If the Phils play them, I hope the Phils smack them around in four games. But, IMHO, they ARE a pretty likable team, they've earned their stripes moving deep in the playoffs, and we all owe Cliff Lee for his performance last year. I'll gladly root for them against any of the other contenders.

I have a Jim Bunning jersey and every time I wear it I get a 55ish guy coming up to me and telling me how he has World Series tickets for '64 somewhere in his basement and how they were the darkest days in his life. I guess the closest I've felt to being crushed by this team was in 1993 as Carter's ball cleared the left field fence. That was brutal.

Heather: Fox probably wants a San Fran - NY series. Keeps both coasts engaged.

Heather, personally, I am excited about both the NLCS because the Phillies are in it and the ALCS because of the playoff history of futility with the Rangers vs. the Yanks. I would love to see the hated Yanks lose to the upstart Rangers. The prospect of seeing he who will not be named pitching in a WS game in Philly would be priceless. Then we can tag his sorry 4$$ with about 8 runs in 4 innings.

The Phillies - Giants series will be epic pitching battles every night. I can't wait.

Joe Crowley: Worst thing about Joe Carter's HR is that I am forced to see it 20 times a year in highlight reels.

You have to feel for Hamilton. Any guy who doesn't trust himself enough to participate in a cheap champagne spray celebration has to have some big time problems.

The Hamilton story is absolutely terrific and admirable, and he's turned into one of the best players in the game. Texas is a pretty inoffensive team overall, and also has my second favorite non-Phillie player even though he's a Phillie-killer in Vlads. Way better than having to endure a Bobby Cox lover fest continuation if the Braves had gotten in or a Joe-Madden-is-A-Genius marathon if the Rays got in.

Never bet against Curt Schilling in a big game.

It was a classy move by the Rangers with the non-champagne champagne celebration.

I wonder if Ron Washington's own problems factored into it?

Whoever thinks that no one likes the Phils and all umpires and sports casters discrimate against them in the broadcast booth or on the field is nuts. I suggest that they see a shrink or get some help.
Fact is we were big time losers and everyine laughed at us. Now everyone is adjusting to the mighty Phils! It takes time. Look I too recall 1964 ignominious!

Then again I also recall that when Jr. traded Lee the NY Times reporter implied that Jr. was not too swift trading Lee--he was right on and we agree on that one as well.

The first game I ever went to (very young) was during the '64 losing streak. Johnny Callison (my favorite) hit 3 HRs and the Phils still lost! Something like 13 to 9. Ugh.

The Rangers made a gutsy move keeping Washington on, and probably an unprecedented move given how recently his issues took place. He definitely had an appreciative tone after the game.

The game I always hear about is when Chico Ruiz (no relation to chooch) stole home and we lost 1-0. The story was that every Phillies fan in the stadium knew he was bolting for the plate-except our pitcher.

I describe the sick feeling in my stomach watching that Joe Carter HR over and over to seeing a haphazard pitch I made in 5th grade summer completely miss the strike zone taped on the fence and sail right through the grumpiest old lady on the block's window and showering her with glass as my family watched at a BBQ in my yard. I was saving up for a TV at the time.

Say, I know. Why don't we spend the next four days complaining about what a moron RAJ is because he traded away C_____ L______?

I mean, since we've never done that before, and we have this time before the next game and all.

And besides, as so many BLers said previously - trading he who will not be named absolutely crushed the team; it demoralized the players and resulted in the death spiral which led to them finish the year in a slump and in last place in the division.

Since 1975, we've actually been a pretty respectable was those first 93 years that sucked. Since then, we've made the playoffs 11 times, won 5 pennants and 2 WS and had a .514 winning percentage overall.

This Phils' team isn't slighted in the least by the national media. If anything, there is a little too much fawning over Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels.

I was a little boy in 1964, and it was the first year I really followed baseball day to day. I forced myself as a learning experience when the season opened to read the boxscore every day in the paper. Little did I know that the Phillies would be involved in the Pennant race all season long. It was a tough season between the Giants and the Phillies swapping leads, then the Giants fell back, and after that Gene Mauch engineered the 1964 Phillies collapse due his managerial brilliance by losing ten straight games, letting the Reds and the Cards back in the race. On the last day of the season, despite winning the last two games, the Phils finished a game back.

I still remember that Sunday afternoon after the season was over. I felt awful. I couldn't face anyone because I was so sad. I took a chair and put it by our front glass door looking across the street. I remember seeing dark clouds to the north. That image and sadness are still etched in my brain. No child should have to endure such pain. To prevent cruelty to children, the Phils must win the WFC again this year!

I went to a game with my Dad during the 1964 swoon. Richie Allen hit an inside the park home run and I thought Connie Mack Stadium would implode. I remember saying to my Dad, "I can't believe what I just saw."

Still lost.

Dad had WS tickets for us, I guess he was going to take a day off work and pull me out of elementary school if need be. Wish I still had those tickets...

Phlipper--It did do all of those things andin fact they did not recover untilOswald came into the picture.

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