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Sunday, September 19, 2010

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Thank God Howard didn't get to second base.

Reposted from previous thread:

Just realized this...

Not only is my week-old daughter wearing her Phillies onesie today, but she was born last Sunday afternoon. The Phillies haven't lost in her lifetime.

You're welcome, Beerleaguer.

AP Photo

They can smell the playoffs.

The Phillies are good at playing baseball.

"Atlanta's pitching staff isn't going to be quite this generous."

Mike Minor, last 3 starts, ERA of 9.00.

Jair Jurrjens has an ERA of 7.09 in his last 5 games.

Not too worried abou those starters, you know?

killbill, I like that. H2O2.

Hyrogen Peroxide.

Not to nit-pick after such a dramatic win but what on earth was Werth doing sitting at home plate & admiring his shot? That ball was hit to one of the deepest parts of the park & barely cleared the wall. If the ball hadn't cleared the fence, and he had ended up on 2nd instead of 3rd (or 1st instead of 2nd), it could have been a very costly blunder.

Hello, all. Squonk in 'da house!

I've been quite this entire session because I just got back from my PT job, and wasn't too happy when I saw the 6th inning linescore on MASN2.

But this outcome.... I know most of you didn't hear it, but Phillies radio made the prediction, "Jayson Werth, who has homered in each of his past two games, but not yet homered today, steps to the plate...." Watching the MASN2 coverage with the, albiet delayed MLB radiocast was all baseball is about.

No wonder all Nats seven fans think the Phillies are "the ugly empire." All seven of them.

And put yourselves in the shoes of a Braves fan, right now, heading into the bottom of the ninth. A Phils loss was a lock, so you're now thinking, two games down, heading into Philly for the first of two decisive series. The Nats future closer, Drew Soren, with all his Strausburg-like comparisons, is on the mound. It's a "can't miss," if there ever was one. If I lived on Peachtree Street, or anywhere near it, I'd be salivating, heading into the bottom of the ninth. I'd be patting my friends on the back, taunting Phillies fans brave enough to doubt the Braves this season, and buying a round. Maybe for the whole bar.

Instead, I expect all the bars on Peachtree will be swearing, cursing, and maybe throwing things at the TV. I can't presume to know how the Braves player feel about this game, but it has to be disheartening.

Re-posting. Clearly, the endless thread/argument about Werth's AVG with RISP did the job.

Great AP photo JW...


****Not to nit-pick after such a dramatic win but what on earth was Werth doing sitting at home plate & admiring his shot? That ball was hit to one of the deepest parts of the park & barely cleared the wall. ****

Nah, JW knew it was out off the bat. In Beard We Trust!

Wow what a home run by Jayson Werth! This team is unstoppable this September. Go Phillies!

BAP, he's hit homeruns there before. He knows what they feel like.

I'm just leaving CBP. No one wants to leave. Playoff atmosphere!

Bring on the Braves!!!

Magic number down to 10.

Been a long time since I've had the opportunity to count it down.

"In Beard We Trust!"

True. It's not like Werth has any history of mental blunders.

Werth HRs

2008: 24
2009: 36
2010: 24


Odd how things work out. He's pretty much right back in line with where we figured his power numbers would be.

How many times are journalists going to ask Charlie about "looking ahead". The team hasn't done it for 4 years now. Why would things change?

Also, did it appear they were "looking ahead" when they scored 4 in the ninth, and blew the Nationals right out of the stadium.

Lazy journalism. Ask a real question, dammit.

Someone post what Ricky Bo is saying. I'm stuck in traffic.

Yeah, I know this isn't a football blog, but Randy Moss just made one of the greatest catches ever, and he made it look so damn easy.

H20 BK

Any creative ideas for a Phillies shirt featuring bottled Burger King water?

"Phils, 41-15 over their last 56. 15-3 in September. 11-1 in their last 12. 7 game curent winning streak."

An outstanding record. Its been beautiful to watch. .

Braves feeling today how we felt so many times a month or so ago when we just couldn't gain on 'em. Too late for them now. The Phils are way too hot and locked in.

I'm sure that HR was a real kick to the crotch of the Braves who were likely watching it in their clubhouse after their own win.


BAP- Are you a performance artist or just a pissy bitch

****Too late for them now. The Phils are way too hot and locked in. ****

Considering we play them 6 times, its definitely not "too late" for them to come back from a whopping 3 game deficit.

With Werth now hitting like Musial, Ryno in his patented hot streak, Chase being Chase again, Madson and Lidge shutting teams down late, our three aces being aces, the defense playing well, Victorino stealing bags and leading off well, Valdez admirably filling for J-Roll, Ruiz hitting like a 5 hole hitter, Raul on a hot a streak, and a 3 game lead, I defy you to find a weakness on this team and a reason to complain.

"Not to nit-pick .... it could have been a very costly blunder."

Yes, it could have. But it wasn't.

" I defy you to find a weakness on this team and a reason to complain."

For Beerleaguer, that is child's play.

The Phillies have the 4th best record in baseball and are just 1.5 games back of the Yankees for the best record overall.

NEPP - True its not too late for the Braves but your not predicting the Phils go down are you? Phils may only win it by 1 game but I'm confident they will do it whatever the margin.

**** I defy you to find a weakness on this team and a reason to complain.****

Vic likely getting suspended sometime this week for touching an Ump. Its probably 50/50 that he gets a 2-3 game suspension.

****NEPP - True its not too late for the Braves but your not predicting the Phils go down are you? Phils may only win it by 1 game but I'm confident they will do it whatever the margin. ****

Not at all...I just dont like getting that cocky. I'll say its in the bag when we're up 4 games going into the final 3 game series in Atlanta. Till then, its in play.

NEPP, care to explain where you came up with the 50/50 prediction?

Why would Vic get suspended if Ryno didn't? At this point in the season and with a contending team, I doubt that it will happen. We shall see.

"I defy you to find a weakness on this team"

Funny, we've spent 90% of the year saying that the offense is horrible & the bullpen was a disaster waiting to happen.

Keeping it real NEPP. I like it. As Yogi would say "It ain't over til its over." I just can't help being excited but yes in baseball you gotta keep the emotions level and in check for success. As a fan I'm high. The Phils are damn good!

****NEPP, care to explain where you came up with the 50/50 prediction?****

No real numbers...but typically you touch an ump and you go away for a couple games. Howard didn't so its not a definite but usually it means a suspension.

Old Phan, when he ran by the home plate umpire, he used his left elbow to move him out of the way, as he ran after the third base umpire.

It wasn't antagonistic, and it wasn't hostile, but I still wonder.

So, wacky thought but what about using Worley on the Post-season roster (assuming we get there) over Baez?

Either would only be used in a blowout situation but I think Worley (being stretched out) would be more useful in such a scenario. Imagine a situation where our starter gets beaten up/pulls up lame. I think having a guy that could go 3-4 innings instead of 1 would be more useful.

Phil's are unbelievable. Key hit was Ryan Howard's 9th inning single; I trust that he stayed put on first because he knew second base wasn't worth an aggravated ankle strain.

I can't imagine the pressure on the Braves starting staff about now. As much as the Brave's 'pen rocks, their rotation sucks. Damnit, if the Braves somehow win the NL East, they should airlift Bobby Cox to the HOF the moment they clinch.

One more thing. I know the good ol’ USA has problems, but the U.S. Congress should convene hearings on the influence of the umpires on MLB. MLB has anti-trust status granted by Congress. However, the umpires appear to have unlimited power over the outcome of the game with unchecked blown calls, and selective removal of players via “ejections”. Regardless of the emotionally charged situations in which they occur, most all ejections of late appear really egregious.

Someone has to pin the umps ears back. Ya’ think that Congress might want to do the right thing, just once?

Vic may get suspended precisely because Ryno didn't. The league may see it as time to send the team a message that once was understandable but twice is reason for a slap on the wrist.

Though they'd have to pull some roster shenanigans as Worley wasn't on the 25 man prior to Sept 1...maybe they could figure something out though.

*****One more thing. I know the good ol’ USA has problems, but the U.S. Congress should convene hearings on the influence of the umpires on MLB. MLB has anti-trust status granted by Congress. However, the umpires appear to have unlimited power over the outcome of the game with unchecked blown calls, and selective removal of players via “ejections”. Regardless of the emotionally charged situations in which they occur, most all ejections of late appear really egregious.****

I dont know, considering the massive deficit, 10% unemployment, 2 major conflicts (even if Iraq is "over" so to speak) and all the other things going on, they might have to pass on that. ;)


The umpiring this year has been brutal though.

Well, it took 6 years for them to finally suspend Nyjer Morgan, so who knows how long it would take for the Victorino suspension (if it happens) to go through.

***Victorino suspension (if it happens) to go through.***

Games 1-3 of the NLDS.

NEPP, I'm not defending Baez (he's proven he does not deserve to be on a playoff roster), but won't we already have KK to fill the long man role? Do we need two guys for that? However, if we do, then Worley would be my choice as well.

NEPP -- True, true. However, what fan comes to see the umpires? Playoff NBA basketball has it about right -- "no blood, no foul".

Wouldn't Vic just be able to appeal (ala Nyjer Morgan) and serve any suspension at the beginning of next season?

NEPP, if they suspend him, maybe we get lucky, and it happens during the Mets/Nats series.

****but won't we already have KK to fill the long man role? Do we need two guys for that? However, if we do, then Worley would be my choice as well.****

Good point...forgot about KK going to the BP. Not really an issue either way. Might as well keep Baez then.

Maybe I missed something. Did Vic smack the umpire in the noggin with his bat a la Juan Marichal?

Howard now with 104 RBI, and is all of 3 off the top spot in the National League.

How impressive would it be if he finished with the RBI title in the NL, after basically missing 4 weeks with his injury?

I think Blanton in near future (2011) should be a reliever - He can not go past 5 innings
The only problem is that hes making way too much money in his contract

****I think Blanton in near future (2011) should be a reliever - He can not go past 5 innings****


He is averaging just over 6 innings per start...and he does have a pretty long sample size showing that to be about his ability.

He's a 6 and out guy. 100 pitches and out.

UC should just have a shorter leash with him. He pitched very well for 5.2 innings today and got squeezed big time in the 6th.

Hope werth doesn't get smashed tonight

If the Giants, Padres, and Rockies finish in a 3 way tie for the NL West, how does that work (assuming a WC spot isn't in play thanks to the Braves recent surge).

Do they play a round robin or do they use tie-breakers (division, face to face records)?

According to baseball-reference, Ryan Howard's 162 game pace is 38 HR and 127 RBI. Figuring that his actual games played is being skewed by that stretch after he came off the DL where he couldn't hit anything, I'd say that Ryan Howard, uninjured, probably would have put up 40, 130 this year, which is basically what we expected of him coming in to the year.

Kentuckessee Joe looked quite good today.

Okay, I'm trying to figure out my penance for pulling a "bap" today and giving up on this team thinking they lost when there was an inning left to play.

I'm open to suggestions...

Kentucky Joe gave up 2 homers and 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings - thats not looking good to me. Throw out the 6th and then he looked okay, but its 9 innings for a game and he didn't last 6

****Kentucky Joe gave up 2 homers and 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings - thats not looking good to me.****

He pitched 6 innings, not 5.2. And if you actually watched the game, he pitched pretty well.

CJ, just say 10 Hail Manuels and you're good to go.

NEPP - Blanton got squeezed a bit in the 6th but he should have been pulled after the Dunn BB.

I really thought that after Baez allowed the Espinosa HR that this game was likely was probably an 'L.'

Now all the Phils have to do is just win a single game this series vs. Braves with Halladay-Oswalt-Hamels on the mound to prevent them for making up any kind of real ground.

You know, if it wasn't for Danys Baez and JC Romero sucking and giving up runs, Ryan Howard gets the game winning walk off single, which is far less exciting.

So, thank you Danys and JC, for not doing your job.

NEPP - Your right. Blanton did until the 6th. Just left him out there past his expiration date.

I take it that the lack of comment means you all agree. Jason? Headline quote?

Just noticed something... Phils have seriously closed the run differential gap on teh Braves. Phils are now +108 and the Braves are +122. Braves lead the NL, Phils are 2nd.

CJ – Go read a Braves blog... !!!!!Just Kidding!!!!!! Hey, I've agonized over lots of "lost causes" (5 or greater runs back) over the years. I used to turn off the radio/TV~ 8th inning of those “blowouts”. Now, not so often.

Funny thing, Charlie always says "27 outs" need to be played; this team really, really believes that.

Heck, if you're so inclined, enjoy a fine adult beverage. These are the days!

I wonder if Storen was tipping his pitches. Franzke mentioned on the radio that Werth went out to talk to Howard just prior to his AB. That, and the guy didn't record an out.

(To preempt any charges that I'm trying to diminish a win--I'm not out to do that in the least. It was absolutely fantastic, and I can't think of a better way to cruise into the Braves series.)

Am Phillies fan and live in Atlanta. I am beginning to believe some Phillies would bitch if the Phils record was 161-1! Enjoy. We are going back to WS!

Comparison of starters for the upcoming series (combined averages).

Hamels/Halladay/Owalt:

ERA: 2.78
WHIP: 1.09
SO/BB: 4.36

Jurrjens/Minor/Hanson:

ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.31
SO/BB: 2.81

I'd say the Phils have the distinct advantage in this series, no?

Also, check this out. Hamels has given up 65 ER, this year, Oswalt has given up 64 ER this year, and Halladay has given up 65 ER this year.

Eerie.

Watched for 8 innings and turned it off after romero let in the 6th run. That's what I get for doubting.

Jim Thome hit his 588th HR today.

Pretty impressive season for him.

victorino is not going to get suspended. and you guys complain too much for a team that's won 7 in a row. gimme a break. you're talking about a defensive blunder by a guy that just won the game for them. who cares? that's not even his real position for god sakes

"Werth is just getting started with clutch hits in September and October. Expect him to make a lot of people look really stupid on here.

Posted by: Jack | Sunday, September 19, 2010 at 05:08 PM"

Jack you missed the lengthy thread in which sifl used mathematical formulas to explain why Werth's poor RISP numbers were more than just a slump or luck or low BABIP, the implication being that his struggles would continue.

NEPP: Werth hit 24 HRs in 418ABs in 2008.

He has 24 HRs in 519ABs this year, so not really where i was expecting.

I bet 99% of the posters here would have predicted +30HR for this season, and some even 40.

If it were me, Danys Baez would not be on the playoff roster. Vance Worley would be.

**** I defy you to find a weakness on this team and a reason to complain.****

Ummm... Bullpen. Like every one of the thirty teams the Phils bust beat to become World's Series (quoted in the old style) champions, again.

NPP: "He pitched 6 innings, not 5.2. And if you actually watched the game, he pitched pretty well."

Exactly right. I was at the game. Blanton looked good, made one bad mistake to Morse, who's a pretty good young player. Had the Phils lost 6-4 or 6-5, this game would've gone into the LDABP column (Loss Directly Attributable to the BullPen). When your relievers give up runs in both the 7th and the 8th, you have a problem.

At this point, the biggest concern to me is not Baez or Worley for the last playoff roster spot.

It's the fact that we don't have a lefthanded reliever who can get anyone out.

"Jack you missed the lengthy thread in which sifl used mathematical formulas to explain why Werth's poor RISP numbers were more than just a slump or luck or low BABIP, the implication being that his struggles would continue."

That wasn't what I took out of it. He never claimed it would continue indefinitely, just that Werth would have had near lottery-winner odds for it to be purely luck.

I don't really give a crap why he struggled at this point as long as he's gotten over it. But whatever you are currently refuting is not what sifl's argument was.

"Jim Thome hit his 588th HR today.

Pretty impressive season for him"

If Jim Thome was still playing 1st base on the Phillies would his offensive numbers (HRs, average, slugging, RBIs) be better than Ryan Howard's this year?

(Assuming he stayed healthy.)

@ Clout: What sifl did was use mathematical analysis to indicate the chances of Werth's awful RISP figures being a matter of mere luck were extraordinarily small. This was supported by Werth commenting on potentially fixing something in his swing or approach after viewing video. Hence the jokes-- funny ones-- about it being a GOOD thing Howard did not advance to second on his 2RBI single.

Thanks for bringing all of that up again, btw. Seemed to me people were happy to have it over with. Especially now. You're all class, dude.

"It's the fact that we don't have a lefthanded reliever who can get anyone out"

Yes, but we have a righthanded reliever who can get lefties out...Ryan Madson.

Heather: There's at least a dozen first basemen who would dwarf Howard's performance if they were switched out with him. You need only peruse Beerleaguer threads to learn that.

Not to pull a pigeon, but thefightins has the radio call up.

I agree. The Phils are on a tear. And despite my misspellings in my posts...

...everything that you all have written so far, all tha is not about abolsolute praise of a team...

...the history they may make, right now...

...is really about ignoring the facts and not accepting how good we have it right now.


No team is ever going to win 162 games. Forget it, impossible. If you want to overanalyze a team, and tell me how a two time defending champion could be better, well, show me the math.

No team could possibly win more than 110 games, even though Seattle exceeded that in 2001. (And never approached thatb point before, or after 2001.) My point is, that math does not exist to predict perfection, so why try?

Thome doesn't play first any more to save his back, so he'd probably be too injured to match Howard's production.

He only DH's and he still gets rested regularly. Gets treatment six days a week for his back.

I loved how on the radio call you could hear LA in the background saying "YES!!!" and giggling.

Gutless poster who changes his screen names: Please explain how this "Werth commenting on potentially fixing something in his swing or approach after viewing video" supports sifl's contention that the chances of Werth's RISP woes being due to slump, bad luck or poor BABIP are infintesimal.

Who cares about RBI or HR counts for Werth and Howard? Their seasons will be judged by their performances in the playoffs, and nothing else.

I am sorry, but I want to heavily argue the, "sit back, and just enjoy it" part of the discussion.

I love clout, NEPP, and those folks here who seem to have the microphone, and lover their spreadsheet. But I think I need to ask them. What is more important? Enjoying the moment, or killing yourself in front of a spreadsheet.

@ Clout: Werth told us he felt watching video helped him improve his approach. No amount of watching video is going to improve your luck.

BTW, if you think I am someone else who posts here frequently, you're wrong. I'm me. Well, I was Clout-apotamus, once. And I will probably pull that schtick again sometime. Because it's fun.

Oh, and thanks again for bringing it all up with your gargantuan capacity for being stubborn. I'm sure everyone appreciates it.

Joe Magrane just made the comment that he thinks Werth is more comfortable hitting in this lineup when he can play a supporting role as opposed to all the focus being on him. By which I take it he was referring to the time Utley and Howard spent on the DL. I wonder if there's something to that, that Werth is improving with RISP now that Utley and Howard are back and hitting better, also Ibanez hitting well right now. So Werth can be one of several hitters and relax a bit. Many here had already speculated that his problems with RISP this year was probably due to pressure, since otherwise, he's been great.

Either that, or he's just breaking out of that slump. I think I heard his average has risen with RISP - Anyone catch the number? - Then, too, Howard was only on 1B when Werth hit that HR.

Jack - Yeah that and JRoll's status are about it.

With Madson/Lidge pitching so well, I really like the Phils chances if they are ahead come the 8th inning right now.

HIS NAME IS JAYSON WERTH.

Thanks to the posters who understood the humble point I was trying to make with my calculations.

The only real argument I heard against my analysis was made by Buddy Ryan in 08, who criticized me for assuming that at-bats are independent events. That's fair enough -- but so far I can't find any evidence that they're NOT independent. Buddy, I'd love to take this conversation off-line if you have my personal email, because I think your view is potentially interesting but probably not accurate.

Or if anybody else can direct me to some research on the subject, I'd be happy to learn something new.

Can a slump last an entire season? No, because if it does, it's no longer a slump.

Dodgers making it interesting in the 9th. Runner on 3rd, 1 out. 6-5 Rox.

"There's at least a dozen first basemen who would dwarf Howard's performance if they were switched out with him. You need only peruse Beerleaguer threads to learn that."

Ray Knight of MASN/Nats agrees. In the middle of his and Bob Carpenter's incessant whining about the size of CBP, he said that if Adam Dunn played at CBP he would hit 60 home runs; Zimmerman would hit 40.

Just looked it up. Werth hitting .172 with RISP now.

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