Tuesday: A love letter to Placido Polanco

Monday's win featured the little things that Polly has added all season.

Stats can never be the be-all and end-all in baseball. Placido Polanco, who finished the game 0-for-3, is a perfect example. If you watched the broadcast you heard Chris Wheeler repeatedly praise Polanco's approach to hitting. Nobody is less likely to hit one out these days than Polanco, including Wilson Valdez, and possibly even Brian Bocock. Polly has shortened his swing considerably since getting plunked on the left elbow by a Tim Hudson fastball, a condition that will require offseason surgery. At best, he'll muscle one into the gap; he did this last night by stroking one deep to left-center; but the wind held it up long enough for Matt Diaz to get under it. In my lifetime, I've seen few better situational hitters than Polly roll through town. As successful as the Phils were before bringing him aboard, they were missing a hitter like this. Give him a baserunner and he'll move him along. He'll always hit behind the runner and will always give himself up. He's itching to swing, but in certain situations, he'll kill you with patience, just as he did by drawing a smart lead-off walk to open the seventh inning. Additionally, his health issues haven't affected his glove or arm, which have been spot-on.

For as long as he's able to do the little things, the Phillies owe it to themselves to insert the best possible candidate into the leadoff spot, and right now it's Shane Victorino. The Phils have received everything they could have possibly wanted from their two-hole hitter. He's still one of the best in the business.

Comments

[NEPP]

From the last thread:

I know errors arent the greatest measure of a defender. Yeah, they're important of course and no one disputes that but we all know that sometimes guys get to balls that another defender wouldn't get a glvoe on and thus an error. That all said, it is RIDICULOUS that Polanco has allowed all of 4 errors at 3B and has a .988 fielding percentage. The man simply makes plays on every ball he touches and he gets to a good number of them. Hell of a year out of a converted 2B.

[Zudok]

A player's player. I really thought we'd lose something defensively. Nobody's got Feliz's arm strength (maybe Rolen) but Polanco's just as accurate and his hands might even be better than Pedro's. As a hitter you've said it all, Jason.

[EastFallowfield]

I liked his bobble on the grounder that caused Utley to make the amazing turn on the double play.

[awh]

NEPP, I have posted the same thing about Shane Victorino. Vic ain't pretty sometimes and sometimes he takes bad routes, but in over 5,500 innings since 2006, he has made eight (8) errors.

He sports a .995 fielding %.

[NEPP]

****Nobody's got Feliz's arm strength ****

Wilson Valdez. Did he ever pitch? Honest question here...because he has to be in the low 90s if he were to get on a mound. His arm is ridiculous. He honestly reminds me of watching Dan Marino throw a football in the early 90s. Remember how Dan would literally rocket the football to a receiver who was 10 yards away? Its like he's trying to throw the ball through Ryan Howard at 1B instead of to him. And he's ridiculously accurate.

Jimmy has him in range by a good margin but Valdez is a better technical SS than him (Arm, DP turns, etc). I honestly hope they resign him (if its reasonable). If Castro deserved $800 K this year, I think Wilson deserves it in 2011.

[EastFallowfield]

Nearly Instant Karma: Rockies accused of cheating

[EastFallowfield]

By the way, is this season still a remake of 1979?

[NEPP]

****He sports a .995 fielding %.****

We have several fielders that pretty much make the play if they get their glove on it. Jroll is like that, Vic is like that, Valdez, Polly, Ibanez...even Howard typically makes the play if he can get a glove on it. Werth and Utley are the only two guys on teh roster that I can think of that make those "off the end of the glove" type errors on a a regular basis...and in both cases its typically more of a good range thing. I wonder if that's a big part of what our scouting guys look at in a player: Does he have sure hands? Will he make the plays he can get too? It sure seems like it based on the guys they target.

Interesting sidenote on Werth...early in the year, his UZR (shutup clout) numbers were really terrible. Slowly but surely, his fielding has ticked upward and I've noticed the same thing as the year goes on. He's fielding much better recently than he did back in May/June. The entire team is in playoff mode and it shows.

[NEPP]

That Rockies article raises some interesting points. The huge split between the Rockies and their opponents at Coors Field is a bit shady.

Far more shady than a supposed pair of binocolars.

[NEPP]

Cole Hamels ERA+

2007: 135
2008: 142
2009: 98
2010: 140

More and more, it becomes evident that 2009 was merely the blip in the start of what could end up as a HoF career for young Cole. If only he wasn't so mentally weak last year.

[The Theory]

From the prior thread:
"Wheeler was right on the money. The video being aired on television and posted on sites like this is exactly why jackasses run onto the field.

I was glad to see that Comcast wouldn't air it, but in this era of digital cameras, I knew it would be online.

In the future, JW, please stop giving these people the attention that they want."

Generally, I agree with you. However, in this case we actually have a player making physical contact with the "fan". Thus, the event goes from just being a fan on the field to something more iconic. Especially since the contact was initiated by the player on the field. Weird stuff.

[awh]

Oh, and since this is a love letter to Polly, I agree with everything JW wrote.

Polly is playing through an injury that will require offseason surgery - just as Raul did last season - and as JW noted it has limited him but not rendered him totally ineffective.

Kudos to Polly.

[Cliff]

Don't throw stones when you live in a Coors Field, literally.

[NEPP]

Can someone help me with this? How does the following make any sense?

WAR (Fangraphs)
C__ L__: 6.5 (leads Majors for pitchers)
Cole Hamels: 4.2

ERA+
C__ L__: 128
Cole Hamels: 140

Also, Hamels has pitched more innings, struck out more and at a higher pace, has the same total of actual wins and is (other than BB) having generally a better year. How is it that his WAR is so much lower than C__ L___? Doesnt that bring such a statistic's validity into question?

[The Theory]

NEPP- you're forgetting that statistic of "Most Discussed Player on Beerleaguer not Wearing a Phillies Uniform". That holds a lot of weight in WAR.

[NEPP]

Its actually pretty fun to watch Boras do his thing sometimes:

It didn’t take long for Scott Boras to start hinting at Jayson Werth’s free agent value. The agent, who recently added Werth to his long list of clients, suggested to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the outfielder will be seeking more than the $66MM Jason Bay obtained as a free agent last winter. Without making demands or mentioning dollar figures, Boras made it clear that he considers Werth more similar to Matt Holliday (a Boras client who signed a $120MM deal) than Bay.

“Werth is a totally different type of player [than Bay],” Boras said. “He’s an athlete who can play center field, run, steal bases, be a Gold Glove type outfielder.”

Werth, who has started 18 games in center this year, has spent most of the season in right, but Boras made it clear that the 31-year-old is an option for teams looking to add a center fielder.

“He has the closing speed to play center,” Boras said. “It makes your team so different. Normally you get that production out of a corner outfielder.”

Though most around baseball assume that Werth, a projected Type A free agent, will leave the Phillies, Boras says his client may end up re-signing in Philadelphia.

I wonder who will give Jayson "Matt Holliday" type money since apparently that's what he's looking for now.

[quincy.mcneal]

NEPP, I brought that up last week. I just don't agree with WAR for pitching. Is Cole just that much better of a situational pitcher than Lee? Is this supposed to mean that Lee becomes a completely different pitcher out of the stretch? It just goes to show that situational pitching is much more important in judging the worth of a pitcher than Fangraphs would have you believe.

[awh]

NEPP, many others here have commented on WAR.

Personally, while I appreciate the sabremetric community - I think they've done a tremendous service to the game and it's fans - some of the more "advanced" stats that have been put forth the last several years seem to be the invention of a stat for its' own sake.

When Bill Jaems did his initial analyses and demonstrated things like OBP being more important to a team scoring than BA, he enhanced the understanding of the game for legions of fans and even many professional baseball people.

But I must question whether these "advanced" stats really enhance a person understanding of the game, especially when they try to mathematically measure things that aren't necessarily mathematically quantifiable.

Some things about baseball (and life) just can't be reduced to numbers. Period.

[ozark]

Remember when Utley was coming up and had to be the everyday 2B? Polly didn't want to play 3B so he was shipped to Detroit for a soon-to-be convicted felon. If Polly had agreed to play 3rd we would have been spared the likes of Wes Helms.

[quincy.mcneal]

Disclaimer to my previous post: When I brought up Lee's WAR last week, I did not understand the derivation of the stat at all. I did go on to read the 7 part intro on Fangraphs, and still disagree with it's validity.

[NEPP]

****Remember when Utley was coming up and had to be the everyday 2B? Polly didn't want to play 3B so he was shipped to Detroit for a soon-to-be convicted felon. If Polly had agreed to play 3rd we would have been spared the likes of Wes Helms.****

Actually, that's not how it happened at all. They didn't want to bench David Bell and his massive $4 million salary so they traded Polly for a convicted felon. Had ownership simply been willing to get rid of a sunk cost, Polly would have stayed.

[MG]

I have been nearly as impressed by Polanco's hitting of late as his defense inclduing last night. He made two textbook plays where you get in front of a hard hit ball, knock it down, and throw the runner out.

This offense also looks notably better with Vic at the leadoff spot than JRoll. If JRoll is healthy, he should start but I don't want to see him in the leadoff spot which is exactly where he will be if he is in the lineup.

[Chris in VT]

Hmmm...so MLB doesn't oversee the humidor process basically at all, and the only thing preventing the Rox from abusing it is "the integrity of the manager."

Riiiight...

[awh]

"Polly didn't want to play 3B so he was shipped to Detroit for a soon-to-be convicted felon."

ozark, that's a bit of a reinvention of history. David Bell had been signed to a FA contract, and because of it's value was untradeable - not that I'm aware of any attempt to move him.

IIRC Polly had no problem playing 3B - he had done it in STL. The issue was that he was "blocked" at 3B by a player who was inferior, and really only had one decent season in red pinstripes.

[Joe Cowley]

****I envision a 2-1 final tonight. ****

I was pretty close, luckily we wound up on the winning end, not much we can't do right at the moment.

[Bay Slugga]

One of my favorite titles I've seen on BLer, and JW is spot on... again. Polly didn't get it done last night when Victorino was able to steal second base, but I have tons of confidence in him during the situation.

Rollins being out may actually be a blessing in disguise, since it allows the team to bat Valdez 9th and balance the rest of the order. If I'm Charlie, I sit Rollins down and explain to him that when/if he comes back he will be hitting in the 8 hole.

[Chris in VT]

"This offense also looks notably better with Vic at the leadoff spot than JRoll. If JRoll is healthy, he should start but I don't want to see him in the leadoff spot which is exactly where he will be if he is in the lineup."

Correct me if I'm wrong, but was JRoll hitting 5th/6th in the lineup before he got hurt (again)?

[Bubba]

On the Polanco love-fest.

I often wondered how good the Phils could have been during the David Bell to Pete Happy (with several intermediate stops) era if they had simply kept Polly and moved hum to 3B when Utley became an everyday fixture.

This year is providing the answer.

[Fatalotti]

As far as I'm concerned, Roy Halladay has been the best pitcher in baseball over the course of the season, Cole Hamels has been one of the best, and has been as good, if not better, than anything we could have hoped for from Cliff Lee, and Roy Oswalt has come in to round this rotation into one of the most fearsome in the majors for maybe two more years.

Color me excited!

[J. Weitzel]

MG: I don't get the same feeling that J-Roll will be the leadoff hitter once healthy. It seems like Manuel has finally let go.

[Chris in VT]

Nice article from Stark:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=5598458

Since the first month of the season, Hamels has probably been the best pitcher in the NL. It's nice to see him get recognized for it on the national stage, despite the mediocre W/L record.

[MG]

Chris - He was but only because he was slumping so badly. My bet is that if he comes back JRoll will be in the leadoff spot. Just how Cholly does things - good and bad.

[Fatalotti]

Honestly Chris, I feel like Hamels got craploads of national love from the media following '08, and they were ready to pile more on last year, but Hamels had a mediocre year.

Now that's rounding into ace form again, I've seen lots of love thrown his way from the national media.

[MG]

JW - I still think he does as long as he gets his ABs in before the playoffs start. If JRoll is able to play in at least 3-4 games before the playoffs, I expect him be leading off in Game 1 and definitely the leadoff guy come next spring.

[Chris in VT]

I'm not so sure...this stretch, combined with JRoll's injuries and offensive struggles, might just be enough to convince Cholly to change things up. He wasn't the leadoff hitter for the week before he was hurt, it's quite possible he won't be when he comes back.

[awh]

NEPP, exactly. The mentality in the Phils front office at the time seemed to be that they wouldn't eat salary to get rid of a player.

Gillick, to his credit, changed that thinking.

If they had been willing to eat a good portion of Bell's deal (the way they wound up doing with Thome), it's likely that Polly would have been here.

Polly was traded in June 2005. David Bell's contract ran through the end of the 2006 season, and wound up being traded by Gillick in July '06 right around the time the Phillies made that great trade to get rid of their right fielder.

If the Phillies had been willing to eat a little salary at the time....

[Chris in VT]

Fatalotti - He definitely got a ton of hype following the 08 WS, then was derided as soft and overrated pretty much all last year.

I'm just surprised that the media's giving as much love as they are to a 12-10 pitcher. They tend to wet themselves over things like Ubaldo's 15-1 start instead.

But I love this:

"Over his past five starts, the 26-year-old left-hander is 5-0 with a ridiculous 0.49 ERA. That's two runs and just 18 hits allowed in 36 2/3 innings pitched, with 35 strikeouts."

[Mitre]

let's not get too carried away by a hitter who doesn't walk that much and has below average power. we also have two more years to survey before you can start passing judgement...Chew on this though- Polly replaces Pedro Feliz- who posted one of baseball's top 50 worst offensive seasons ever last year. He's a BIG upgrade and a reason why the Phils have been able to overcome injuries to star players.

[Fatalotti]

You know what's crazy to me?

When Roy Oswalt showed up, Cole and he both had ERAs around 3.4-3.5.

They now have, respectively, ERAs of 2.90 and 2.93.

And both of those pale in comparison to Halladay's 2.49 ERA.

I love this pitching staff.

[jason.tp]

Didn't check the threads at all, but I'm sur ethey pointed out how filthy our infield defense was last nite.

The turns by both Utley and Valdez were things of beauty on each one.

Valdez has such violent arm action, it is awesome to watch him crank out a throw from the bag to 1st with absolutely no momentum going forward..

Just by scrolling down to the comment box, I noticed NEPP said that Valdez's arm is better than Jimmy's. Disagree - and if either is better, we're talking the tiniest amount that none of us could ever prove without some sort of drill. Jimmy makes it all look easy, which takes away from the things he does in my opinion. Still, the arm actoin and body language Valdez uses when showing that golden arm is pure joy to watch.

[R.Billingsly]

Stats can never be the be-all and end-all in baseball.

Careful, Jason. Careful. Those are fighting words around here.

[Fatalotti]

"Stats can never be the be-all and end-all in baseball.

Careful, Jason. Careful. Those are fighting words around here."

The funny thing, RBill, is that whatever JW's referring to that can't be measured by a stat (hitting behind runners, sacrificing yourself to allow a guy to steal a bag, being willing to hit with 2 strikes, etc.), they most definitely have stats for those.

I don't know where they are, but I guaran-damn-tee they have stats for them.

[Bay Slugga]

What would we say Polly's SI is? It can't be higher than Bocock's, can it?

[NEPP]

****I noticed NEPP said that Valdez's arm is better than Jimmy's.****

You're probably right on it being a perception thing...Exxon just makes every throw like his arm is gonna come flying off so it looks harder.

[Heather]

I would speculate that this offense is currently bettter with Valdez hitting 8th than with Jimmy hitting 1st (or 5th or 6th.)

The offense would be better with Jimmy hitting 8th versus Valdez, but that ain't gonna happen.

[Bay Slugga]

Heather: I'd much rather Jimmy the Valdez (obviously), but not if that means Jimmy has to bat leadoff with one leg and only his "swagger".

[Heather]

FWIW, according to Baseball Reference's WAR:

Cliff Lee: 4.2
Cole Hamels: 5.2

I know Fangraphs and Baseball Reference calculate their WARs differently than Fangraphs, but usually the differences aren't as dramatic.

[awh]

I hate looking ahead, but others here have mentioned that the Phillies have H20 back next season, so this blurb from the Stark article got me thinking:

"If you go back to the day Oswalt showed up (July 30), the Phillies have an insane .759 winning percentage (22-7) when he, Halladay and Hamels start. That's nearly 10 full turns through the rotation and only seven losses."

So, in 2011, the Phillies, health permitting, will trot H20 out for about 35 starts each. That's 105 games.

While I don't expect a .759 WP in those games they start, is it reasonable to expect .650 - .700?

.650 - .700 would mean 68 - 74 wins in the games they start. If the team can go 30 - 27 in the other 57 games (.527) that means the floor might be 98 wins next season.

Three aces can do that for you, no?

[Jonesman]

Manuel has already laid the groundwork for Jimmy hitting low in the lineup when he comes back. He said because Jimmy won't be able to run as much he will keep Vic leading off.

[awh]

It's amazing what has transpired here on BL this season.

The FO was roundly criticized (and rightfully so) for signing Juan Castro. Castro himself was criticized as well, but he is what he is.

OTOH, RAJ has been lauded by some for signing Valdez - even though he was only a MiL signing and there was, based on his past history, little or no expectation of him ever helping the MLB club.

He was minor league filler - an emergency call up, if necessary.

Now, based on his play this year (and last year when his OPS was nearly identical - in a much smaller sample size), Valdez has many on BL saying he should be re-signed.

Now, don't get me wrong, I think he's done an admirable job this season, but based on his history, unless he can be signed for the MLB minimum next season I'm not sure I'd do it given their other payroll restrictions.

Love the guy and want him back, but if he gets offered more money by someone else...

[GreysFan]

I'm seeing that the Talking Chop folk are mostly attributing last night's win to bad bounces and bad luck—Heyward's error, Prado's just foul home run. This completely misses some of the keys to the game: Cole made the pitches he needed to when they were most needed and the Phil's defense was terrific. When they are on their game, as they mostly have been for two months, the Phils are a complete team that does everything necessary to win. Atlanta is a good club, but they fell short last night and too many other times as well.

[Bay Slugga]

AWH: I'd like to see Valdez back for the minimum too. If all goes according to plan, he should see about 1/6 of the ABs he has had this year.

[Andy]

I'm fascinated by those COL accusations. The stats are amazing. More incriminating than Mick's binocs, actually.

COL Home SLG and HRs: .506, 102
COL Away SLG and HRs: .357, 61

Everyone hits better at home, BUT:

OPP Home SLG and HRs: .377, 53
OPP @COL SLG and HRs: .409, 67

For what it's worth, across the NL, people hit this much better at home:

NL Home SLG and HRs: .417, 1158
NL Away SLG and HRs: .387, 1078

The difference in the league between home and away home runs is 80. More than half of that is attributable to the Colorado Rockies who have hit 41 more HRs at home than away.

Things that make ya go "Hmmmmmmmm...."

(But really I'm sure that the team does not tamper with the game balls that are kept in a bag in their dugout during the games. We're all men of honor here, right?)

[Kutztown Fan]

I'm beginning to despise the Rockies.

[Andy]

Relative to the rest of the payroll, how much difference is there between what Castro was offered and ML minimum? Given how "easy" it turned out NOT to be to find a good UT, I'd at least split the difference.

[Fatalotti]

GreysFan, I guess they didn't factor in that the Phillies hit about 10 balls incredibly hard, that just happened to land in Braves' gloves.

Oh, and for however far Prado missed his homerun last night, Chooch missed a two run jack by the same amount.

It's fun to play the "what if" game all night, but the fact is, the standings are based on the "what actually happened" game.

As it should be.

[joe l]

Why don't the Rockies simply invite a representative from the visiting team to monitor the humidor process?

[st]

manuel said last week on xm homeplate that when rollins comes back, he will hit either 6 or 7. doesn't want him to leadoff because he can't run as much

[awh]

GreysFan, don't pay too much attention to Baves blogs.

They don't realy know what they're talking about.

Here's a quote from Talking Chop:

"The Braves wasted some good run scoring opportunities, something they'll have to rectify when they face even tougher pitchers tonight and tomorrow night."

Now, does that quote have any basis in reality? Have they been paying ANY attention to the numbers Cole Hamels has put up since the beginning of July?

If they had been paying attention they'd know that Hamels has been the Phils best starter since July 1.

16 GS, 112.1 IP, 119 K, 2.00 ERA, .979 WHIP

.210 .267 .309 against

Jason Stark knows it and said so in his article. Too bad the guys on the other team's blog haven't been paying attention.

[phil]

Fangraphs WAR uses FIP, B-Ref uses RA. As long as Cliff Lee's K/BB numbers are this staggering he'll continue to be atop the fangraphs WAR leaderboards. ERA+ is not fielding/luck/sequence independent. It's a pretty flawed stat.

Writing stuff like this about Polanco is such beat writer boilerplate...

[Bay Slugga]

Fatalotti: I get the sense that the fans on talkingchop aren't very savvy. A lot of posters are saying they like their chances against Halladay tonight. I realize that you have to play the game, but if I were on the other side of the table, I'd need a change of pants.

[Jbird]

AWH - shutup! Now all three of them will probably blow out their arms.

[st]

if there was a night for halladay to get it back, it would be tonight. he got the extra rest. it is the biggest game he's pitched maybe in his career. he should have adrenaline. i would think he would be good tonight

[GreysFan]

I'm wondering if they keep any Cuban cigars in that humidor…but speaking of cheating, I do recall a couple articles after the sign stealing affair suggesting that the Phillies' success was a result of having that edge and performance would fall off without that extra help. I guess it didn't work out that way.

Fat, even though I don't post often, one thing I appreciate about BL is the lack of excuse making (although maybe the other side of that is the pessimism/criticism). Baseball is a hard game with ample opportunities for disappointment, but over the long season (though not always the playoffs) the best teams really do prove themselves.

[Kutztown Fan]

People in Atlanta barely pay attention to the Braves. How can we expect them to pay attention to Hamels' performance since the ASB?

[NEPP]

****Fangraphs WAR uses FIP****

That is possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard. FIP is just a predictive tool...it has nothing to do with actual results. Snake swallowing its own tale I guess.

[NEPP]

****People in Atlanta barely pay attention to the Braves. How can we expect them to pay attention to Hamels' performance since the ASB?****

AS Break? Try May 1st.

[GreysFan]

Sad but true re Talking Chop (and many other sites). I'll bet no one who posts there has any idea what schadenfreude is.

[Jbird]

Wish there was a stat that was so pure that it could tell us if C____ L__ and Cole were good pitchers. When will science be able to tell us that?

[CJ]

Cliff Lee has a better WAR than Cole because Cole's WAR number is dragged down by his offense and Cliff doesn't have to bat ;-)

[Andy]

Maybe we can send, like, three A+ prospects to Texas for L__ and we could have him AND Cole. How cool would THAT be?

(just kidding around and skirting the edge of dangerous conversation)

That other site (is it bravesjournal.com?) (or something like that) seemed to me to be a lot better (and closer to BL) than the stupid talking chop thinger.

[Kutztown Fan]

NEPP - is that a swipe at me or at Braves fans? LOL

[CJ]

The lineup when J-Roll returns:

vs. RHP
Vic, Polly, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, J-Roll, Chooch

vs. LHP
Vic, Polly, Utley, Howard, Werth, J-Roll, Ibanez, Chooch

That's my guess. It's possible they'll use the lineup I suggested vs. RHP for all games, but I figured Charlie might throw J-Roll a bone vs. lefties and move him up a spot. The downside is that this moves Chooch back into the 8 hole... where his red hot bat will see fewer pitches.

[phil]

Not agreeing with what a stat tells you does not, in anyway, invalidate the methodology. If you want stats to confirm what you already know then don't bother.

Using FIP is WAR is perfectly acceptable. Unless you want to punish a player for poor defense? The FIP inputs are still B, KK, HR, BABIP. Those are all real events. The methodology is sound even if it doesn't validate someones confirmation bias.

[Fatalotti]

NEPP, I though FIP was descriptive, and xFIP was predictive.

Am I wrong about this?

[Jbird]

Phil: Kyle Kendrick is an input in FIP?

[Bubba]

Remember all those years when ATL pitching was so very good and all the Division Championships they won.
Man, I hope we continue our great pitching and winning streak for 2 more days.
If we put them 2 game farther off the pace it may be as much fun as seeing that E next to the Mets in the standings.

[Old Phan]

awh, excellent post at 9:07, especially this-"some of the more "advanced" stats that have been put forth the last several years seem to be the invention of a stat for its' own sake."

I would also agree that we have seen the last of Mr. Roll leading off this season.

[GreysFan]

A sweep would be great. It might allow me to dial back my Phillies obsession from bull goose looney to only slightly insane for a couple days so I could concentrate on my work and get ready for the playoffs.

[Bay Slugga]

Bubba: I really enjoy and good E next to the Mets in the standings.

[CJ]

Andy: TalkingChop suffers from the same problem all those SBNation sites suffer from. Too much:

THIS

And too much:

+1

[awh]

jbird, dude, sorry.

Believe me, I had a hard time typing it - BL Reverse JInx and all...

[jason.tp]

phil: completely wrong.

FIP is a PREDICTIVE stat while WAR is used to measure past performance.

A pitcher's FIP in relation to his ERA shows how well you should expect that pitcher to continue going forward - so why should that be a component of measuring how good a pitcher HAS been to his team?

5 singles in 9IP, with same K/BB/BABIP/HR. If you give them up consecutively, thats approximately 3 ER.

If you give thme up one every other inning, thats 0 ER.

FIP would tell me that the pitcher is worthy of shutout, but thats not what actually happened.

[jason.tp]

phil: completely wrong.

FIP is a PREDICTIVE stat while WAR is used to measure past performance.

A pitcher's FIP in relation to his ERA shows how well you should expect that pitcher to continue going forward - so why should that be a component of measuring how good a pitcher HAS been to his team?

5 singles in 9IP, with same K/BB/BABIP/HR. If you give them up consecutively, thats approximately 3 ER.

If you give thme up one every other inning, thats 0 ER.

FIP would tell me that the pitcher is worthy of shutout, but thats not what actually happened.

[NEPP]

****NEPP, I though FIP was descriptive, and xFIP was predictive.

Am I wrong about this?
****

No, I am. I misread it as xFIP and went on a rant.

[Tray]

"I don't get the same feeling that J-Roll will be the leadoff hitter once healthy. It seems like Manuel has finally let go."

How can you tell? Has he said anything to that effect?

[Fatalotti]

Thanks NEPP. That's what I thought.

[Joe Cowley]

From today's Inky:

Bobby Cox said for the second time in a couple of days that he had no special memory about a specific game in Philadelphia during his long tenure as the Atlanta Braves' manager.
Reminded that he had been involved in some huge games here, he agreed.
"I just don't remember any of them," he said. "It kind of all runs together like a blur."

Obviously senility may play a large part in speeding up his retirement.

[awh]

Tray, read the whole thread.

Yeas, Charlie said Jimmy would be lower in the order when he get back because he won't be able to run as well.

[Fatalotti]

jason.tp

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by

xFIP: Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts FIP and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA.

FIP is fine to use in WAR clculations. I suppose you could use xFIP if you were to calculate some sort of xWAR.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

[phil]

@jason.tp

FIP neutralizes the following things:
Defense
BABIP luck
Sequence of events

I can see why one might have an issue with the sequencing of events neutralization (when looking backward), but ERA has many more glaring flaws. The idea of an earned run is convoluted, because errors are subjective. Lets take that same scenario. If a pitcher lets up those 5 singles after recording 2 outs and then a fielders error, then he is charged no runs per ERA. He still let up 5 singles in a row, but they are invalid because of a bad throw? A step in the right direction is to at least use raw RA totals, instead of *earned* runs.

[Kutztown Fan]

Joe - senility or arrogance? I always thought Cox was a supercilious dickhead. His remark, to me, seems like he's saying the Phils aren't worthy of his notice.

[NEPP]

****FIP is fine to use in WAR clculations. I suppose you could use xFIP if you were to calculate some sort of xWAR.****

Yeah, and I'm fine with using FIP. I guess our defense is saving more runs than the defenses that Lee has had. Or maybe they weight BB/9 and WHIP more heavily.

Either way, I'd rather have Cole.

[quincy.mcneal]

Phil... Is BABIP an input to FIP? I thought it was just K, HR, BB, IBB.

[jason.tp]

FIP isnt what really happened. Its what most likely would happen if the pitcher repeated his performances over and over and over again.

[johnnysanz3]

.

[Joe Cowley]

KF: Definitely arrogance. While he was definitely a top-tier manager over the years, it was always obvious that his team had a special disdain for the Phillies which continues to this day. I still say it became evident after they were beaten by the '93 Phils, who they viewed as a bunch of deranged lunatics not worthy of even being there.

[Heather]

IMHO if FIP reduces BABIP luck, then it's no longer a stat of "what happened" but "what should have happened"....thus, to me, reducing WAR's effectiveness of telling me who actually was better vs. who should have been better.

[Joe Cowley]

Johnnysanz: Diaz looks like he's having a little too much enjoyment in that first photo....

[jason.tp]

The subjective creditting of errors is definitely a flaw.

But the runs that are put on the board are what really matters when you measuring a players performance of what has actually happening.

How can a player be more valuable to team in the past season based on what "should" have happened instead of what "actually" happened?