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Monday, September 13, 2010

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good news.

I am grateful that Valdez isn't bruntlett and all - but he still sucks.

A hamstring pull is a bit more severe than what I remember the original diagnosis--dehydration and fatigue.

I am now starting to wonder if the Phils will renew his contract for 2012 and beyond. Rollins doesn't seem to be aging well.

Well, .182 with RISP (for September) is better than .158 with RISP (for the season). So I was right. He's trending upward.

one way to look at it is that this will keep jimmy farther down in the lineup and out of the leadoff role for maybe the rest of the year

Woo hoo!

Zolecki tweets:
Rich Dubee said there's a good chance Oswalt pitches Friday, which would allow Oswalt, Halladay and Hamels to face Braves next week.

Jason: Valdez has done a wonderful job, especially considering he accepted a minor league free agent deal late last year.

I am a bit surprised that a team would release him, since he can play nearly every position, and at least bats respectibly. Oh, wait, his last team was the Muts. Figures.

Valdez doesn't stink - he plays an excellent shortstop and 250 hitter isn't that bad for a bench player. If he was better he would be starting for another team. I believe the Phils are lucky to have him.

DH, Bedro's, I believe the best name/explanation would be "The douche-bag without a cause" for Jay. Johnny, I don't think alcohol is the problem, I believe he is burning too much sticky icky icky, that smoke gets in your eyes.

Hey but how about those RISP numbers.....they really trump all the other qualities.....

Agreed about Valdez. He is a very valuable bench player who can play 2B, 3B, and SS well and will get an occasional hit. Considering Uts, Polly and J-Roll all being injured this season, the Phils are lucky they have a guy like that (and yes,he is much better than Castro or The Gnome).

BTW--Baseball-reference.com reports that Valdez is a Peurto Rican US Citizen, who was signed out of a Dominican HS by the Expos/Nats. (Can't figure out what country you live in, huh?)

So what gives with the blonde beard? Too much hair care for men? Trying to impress the (continental) US babes with his blonde hair and killer tan?

That's my anti-Valdez statement.

I'll forgive Valdez his limited skills at the plate because his head's always in the game. He produces at a (slightly) higher level than his numbers indicate. His game awareness is actually Utley-like.

I think Valdez wants to be Jayson Werth, thereby explaining the blonde beard.

UPDATE: Valdez actually batted better last year with his former team, you know, the one that released him--the Muts. No wonder the Muts released him. He played four positions for them, including outfield. But that isn't the type of utility player the Muts are looking for. Figures.

Counter arguement by you stat-heads is that his WAR is higher this year--0.9 vs. 0.3. But games played, plate appearances--that kind of thing--weighs heavily in a person's WAR.

I share all the same praise for valdez and also welcome him to ST next year.

But we're talking about a team thats only 2.5 games from missing the playoffs altogether with less than 20 to play. The less Valdez is in the lineup, the better.

Now that Bobcock is up, I would pinch hit jimmy on one leg everytime Valdez is in the lineup in a crucial spot late in the game.

I'm convinced the absence of Valdez is the main reason the Mets tanked this season.

Cowley: I am upset that a man like Valdez is trying to steal all the hotties from us hard-working American men.

But in reality, I'd like to party with him, and accept his cast-asides. They are definately hotter than anything I could pick up in a bar on my own. The blondeness is a definate chick magnate. Gotta give him that.

I'm sure Valdez lands any leftovers from our "Dude, Where's my Car?" right fielder....

Joe, a true baseball historian can trace all of the Mets current woes on the fact PED wonderboy Benny Ogbiyini (sp) never emerged as the superstar .

My goodness... by the end of this thread, we'll be talking about Valdez's HoF qualifications and about how quickly we can rid ourselves of dead weight like Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth.

It's like the opposite sketch on Beerleaguer today.

Valdez is a light hitting utility infielder. That he's so well liked has more to do with the Phils utter inability to fill the utility IF role than it does Valdez's actual ability. After all, one need only go back a couple of months to find Beerleaguer explaining how Valdez is a key part of one of the worst benches in Phillies' history!

RG: I thought it can be traced back to Bobby Valentine returning to the dugout in fake mustache and glasses after he was ejected (still the most classic managerical move in history)

Corwley: I said this before, but...

The reason why the Muts tank--nearly every year--is because care more about getting headlines in the NY Press than actually putting a competitive team out there.

Valdez is only part of the problem. I am old enough to remember them signing John Olerude (sp?) to play first base. At the time, I thought, WTF? For THAT kind of money? You are FK me?

Look at their payroll today. Look at the dead contracts, or deadly contracts.

The Muts have no clue what they are doing. Other than to say, "we chased the Yankees off the headlines for a couple of weeks by that signing."

The Mess always went for the headline grabbing signing, never based on logic. See Bonilla, Olerud, Eddie Murray, Ricky Henderson, Carlos Baerga...the best move they've made in the past 20 years was getting Piazza.

CJ: Nah, Valdez isn't HOF. But he is better than Juan Castro. So much better that it is time for some Muts bashing. The stupid morons they are.

Statistically, it's getting to the point where it's very unlikely that Werth's 2010 RISP are simply sample-size issues. The narrative I'd most likely impose on the situation is that he started out with some bad luck, and since then he's been changing his approach in what he believes to be high-pressure situations.

Also, when it comes to sample sizes, offensive statistics (wOBA, OPS, etc.) are much more significant based on the same number of games as a stat like UZR. The reason is that each plate appearance is an independent observation, whereas UZR is based upon a scatter distribution to various field "zones", which can take much longer to begin approaching its theoretical curve. With this in mind, you should probably expect the positions that field the most balls (like SS and 2B) to be more significant on a season basis than those that field fewer outs (like 3B and RF).

sifl: Werth is gone next year. Is there any debate?

We have Brown in RF. He needs to develop, needs to get better. He might not be Werth-like next year. In fact, he might make an entire fool of himself. But he is the real deal. Be patient, it will take time.

Your statement about small samples might make sence to a statistician. Student's t-distribution being what it is.

Werth is gone. The question is whether the Phils offer him arbitration, so they can get a draft pick. That's a business risk/benefit analysis.

I hate to play the role of moderator, but Jason's post was Rollins's hammy. All these side discussions are nice, but can we PLEASE get back to Rollins's hammy?

Any thoughts on whether Jimmy will be back in the lineup during the regular season based on this recent update of "minor"?

I think the Phils don't offer Rollins a contract renewal for 2012, and he playes elsewhere for near the major league minimum.

I believe that the fact that nobody spoke to support Rollins speaks VOLUMES.

And the fact you want to talk about anything else, also, speaks VOLUMES.

I think Jason's point is made.

So, what do you think about the Muts signing Jason Bay? Good signing?

Or how about anybody signing Jayson Werth next season? Good signing?

The Phillies have made some puzzling decisions in the past about offering arbitration (in particular, not offering Moyer arbitration).

If they don't offer arbitration to Werth, Amaro should be fired.

How much can you say about a hamstring? Even on BL, which takes every subject, kills it and brings it back to life so that it can be killed again, there isn't much that can be said. It's "day to day" which means it's worse than we know, and there is nothing else to do but wait.

Zolecki tweets:
Rich Dubee said there's a good chance Oswalt pitches Friday, which would allow Oswalt, Halladay and Hamels to face Braves next week.


FINALLY! We have finally replaced Figgy as the long man. Say hello to the new Figgy, Kyle "Figgy Lite" Kendrick.

And about Rollins, I thought it was a mistake to pick up his option early at first. It think I was wrong. I based that on the possibility that he might be declining physically and one major injury could have cost the team eleven million dollars in the DL. However, letting Werth go and putting Rollins in the fifth or sixth spot in the lineup is a good move for 11 million dollars. He is much better with higher leverage situations which come up more often in the middle of the order.

About Werth: His head is where it's always been. He has always been a bad baserunner because of some type of attention deficit disorder. And his cannon arm has often been misdirected. Overall, his baserunning and fielding are still positives. But his hitting in clutch situations is a fact now. It's gone on essentially all season. He rarely even hits the ball hard or into bad luck with RISP anymore. He did so the other day, and I almost jumped out of my chair. It wasn't a hit, but he lined out to center. It's been so rare that it was quite noticeable he'd hit the ball hard. I too think he simply needs to run into a pitch in a clutch situation, but failure is a funny thing. It gets in your head and it can become a habit. By this time, it's almost impossible that he hasn't gotten lucky a few times in that situation. He is keeping his hands lower this season and that may be the problem. He becomes vulnerable to the high fastball with two strikes. And he rarely swings before he hast two strikes, no matter how fat the two strikes are.

For those who think it was a mistake to pick up Rollins option, please let us know

a) who they think is available to replace Rollins
b) that they will be significantly better than Rollins on the whole (defensively/offensively)
c) that the costs associated with such a move (actual $$/PR wise) make any sense?
d) that even if they didn't pick up the option they would save any money re-signing him?

Thank you.

Hamm: One could very plausibly answer "I have no idea" to all 4 of those questions, & still wonder what possible advantage there was to picking up that option a year before they had to.

aksmith: He has "always been a bad baserunner?" Isn't this the same guy who stole 40 bases and got caught just 4 times over the last 2 seasons, and who once stole 2nd, 3rd & home in the same inning?

aksmith, somehow in the same post you state both:

"He has always been a bad baserunner because of some type of attention deficit disorder."

and

"Overall, his baserunning and fielding are still positives."

Just like Werth himself, your post left me scratching my head a bit...

BAP - Yeah, and he's also the guy who got caught stealing third a couple times his first season in completely inappropriate situations.

He's a good basestealer. But not a heady baserunner by any stretch of the imagination. I liken him to Von Hayes. He has some type of attention deficit disorder and seems to go into vapor lock. Not often. But often enough.

Willard - He is mistake prone. But he's not Todd Pratt out there on the bases. What's the problem there? Just an itchy head that needed scratching maybe?

I suppose that maybe because I don't call Werth a worthless jackass on the bases, that may create confusion.

But what I'm saying is that every ballplayer makes mistakes and if the positives outweigh the negatives, they can still be a player worth having on your team.

I guess I don't see the inconsistency there.

@bap -- you certainly could... but I probably wouldn't want you as my GM if you didn't have an answer better than...

"Ill cross my fingers and hope there's a better replacement."

I'm not suggesting that you can't question picking up the option early, i'm just saying, that if you THINK it was a mistake and you can't answer any of those questions, the front office has (or at least their version of those answers) and are satisfied that they made the correct decision in this regard.

And as Sophist has shown time and again that given Rollins defense his contract value for 2011 is reasonable (given his current offensive output).

Given that, picking up the option is highly defensible and arguments against feel a little like spitballs against the glass...

The real problems aren't whether Rollins is offensively giving you what he gave you in 2007, but where he bats in the lineup. That probably has more value to the discussion.

Fretting over picking up the option seems well... uninformed.

Yo, new thread.

Hamm: My point, which I have made before, is that those questions aren't even relevant a year ahead of time.

In an attempt to illustrate my point, let me change the facts a bit. Let's say Rollins also had a 2012 option for $8.5M. Would you exercise it after this year? Or have you already determined that we won't be able to do better in 2012, even though you have no idea how Rollins will do next year or whether he can even stay healthy?

Let's be clear in saying that there is absolutely NO chance the Phils don't offer Werth arb. He's the number 1 or 2 FA option this year in the outfield. They don't offer arb only when they think there is very little market for a player and think that he may accept the offer, see Burrell

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