I don't see why anyone will be surprised. Here is what's going to happen. Beachy will breeze through the Phils' lineup for the first three innings. That is what always happens. Tonight will be no different. This game will be won or lost after the first three, and possibly the first four. If Hamels can shut out the Braves for the first four or five, that will give the Phillies time to adjust. But everyone has to know the Phillies will not hit this kid until they've seen a bunch of at bats. That is all.
Something tells me that we need just one more crisis to complain about and debate before the playoffs, and a Brad Lidge blown save, just as he's worked himself into our good graces again would do such a thing.
Don't underestimate the battle of the bullpens, where we have just as much a disadvantage as we have an advantage in starting pitching.
(the above may or may not be an attempt at a reverse jinx, as far as you're aware....)
aksmith - Yeah. I would be pretty surprised if the Phils score tonight in the first 3 innings unless Beachy is just really wild and issuing plenty of BBs.
Looked at Baseball Prospectus but couldn't find a single article that really took at the issue of when teams face a starter for the first time.
Anyone know if Chipper still makes the trips and sits in the dugout? I want him to have a good first hand view of the next 3 games (and be within earshot of the Phaithful).
Wow, the amount of anxiety on here about an unproven pitcher is baffling.
Would you guys rather have the certified Phillie killer, Jair Jurrjens going tonight?
Each player on this team has faced a pitcher for the first time, several times, and they haven't lost every time that happens.
Methinks there's some confirmation bias going on here. The Phillies will get "shut down" if the kid pitches well, but then again, they'd get shut down if anybody pitched well. If the kid is wild, and then starts serving up cookies, he'll get eaten for dinner.
Fatalotti, I've appreciated your insights in the last couple of months and I may have missed it, but I'm curious as to where in the hell a handle like "Fatalotti" comes from.
Steve: Bocock is the only player on the Phils roster to have seen this guy before. And Brown hasn't played in something like 6 weeks... so there's NO cause to start him tonight. Who would you sit down?
Steve: In a game this important, do you really want your starting lineup to include a .214 hitter, who hasn't had a single AB in the last 2 weeks? Who would he replace?
nice work getting out of a dicey inning. Would be nice for the Phils to get a couple of runs early, get the crowd fired up, put some pressure on the kid and not let him settle in, and not let the Braves think this is going to be anything other than a long series.
I'm sure it's just my imagination, but I would love to see a graphic of Ruiz at the plate waiting for the pitch now, next to one from say, three years ago. He just seems to have a much more confident presence, not someone a pitcher would take lightly at all, a far cry from the automatic chopped DP ball machine of times past.
Bap: Saw the caveat after I reloaded. Truth is I watched the Godfather for the umptillionth time last night and that line has been going through my head all day. Saw a chance to use it, and took it.
First.
I've been waiting for this series all year.
Posted by: Tom P | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:02 PM
If I was writing a thesis on "Will the Phillies ever smack around an unknown quantity," Brandon Beachy would be my thrilling conclusion.
Posted by: king myno | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:04 PM
I don't see why anyone will be surprised. Here is what's going to happen. Beachy will breeze through the Phils' lineup for the first three innings. That is what always happens. Tonight will be no different. This game will be won or lost after the first three, and possibly the first four. If Hamels can shut out the Braves for the first four or five, that will give the Phillies time to adjust. But everyone has to know the Phillies will not hit this kid until they've seen a bunch of at bats. That is all.
Posted by: aksmith | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:08 PM
Something tells me that we need just one more crisis to complain about and debate before the playoffs, and a Brad Lidge blown save, just as he's worked himself into our good graces again would do such a thing.
Don't underestimate the battle of the bullpens, where we have just as much a disadvantage as we have an advantage in starting pitching.
(the above may or may not be an attempt at a reverse jinx, as far as you're aware....)
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:09 PM
It's time to take some pitches and let the crowd and atmosphere get into Beachy's young head.
Posted by: vegas | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:10 PM
aksmith - Yeah. I would be pretty surprised if the Phils score tonight in the first 3 innings unless Beachy is just really wild and issuing plenty of BBs.
Looked at Baseball Prospectus but couldn't find a single article that really took at the issue of when teams face a starter for the first time.
BTY - Who is behind home plate tonight?
Posted by: MG | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:12 PM
Great graphic, JW.
I'm so pumped for tonight's game, despite the fact that it so clearly feels like a loss.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:12 PM
I think its the other way around- we need to go after his fastball & not allow him to establish it early on.
Posted by: baxter | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:12 PM
WP - Honestly with our well Lidge has pitched the last 6 weeks, I wouldn't mind if he blew a save this series.
He simply has been "Lights Out" the past 6 weeks and it has almost gone completely under the radar.
Posted by: MG | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:13 PM
hope we totally deflate beachy ball
Posted by: philyinnyc | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:14 PM
er... sorry about that one...
Posted by: philyinnyc | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:16 PM
Does Beachy have a changeup and/or slider? If he does and can get them working he will gives this team some trouble especially with a changeup.
Posted by: MG | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:16 PM
Anyone know if Chipper still makes the trips and sits in the dugout? I want him to have a good first hand view of the next 3 games (and be within earshot of the Phaithful).
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:16 PM
MG: Fastball, curve ball, changeup.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:21 PM
Wow, the amount of anxiety on here about an unproven pitcher is baffling.
Would you guys rather have the certified Phillie killer, Jair Jurrjens going tonight?
Each player on this team has faced a pitcher for the first time, several times, and they haven't lost every time that happens.
Methinks there's some confirmation bias going on here. The Phillies will get "shut down" if the kid pitches well, but then again, they'd get shut down if anybody pitched well. If the kid is wild, and then starts serving up cookies, he'll get eaten for dinner.
Posted by: Fatalotti | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:25 PM
i looked at his his Minor League Stats - with small exception - his ERA is in the 2's - 3's
I know they are just MiL Stats - still some concern,
they need to be patient at the plate.. very patient!!!
CJ -> phillyinnyc----> to Victorio - he now has the word -- and will pass it to his teammates... Patience is the word....
Posted by: philyinnyc | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:26 PM
Fatalotti, I've appreciated your insights in the last couple of months and I may have missed it, but I'm curious as to where in the hell a handle like "Fatalotti" comes from.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:27 PM
philyinnyc, Great, you just wrote the Inky's headline for them already: Another Day at the Beachy.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:31 PM
I'd rather see Jurrjins out there, myself.
He has looked pretty bad lately.
Posted by: denny b. | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:43 PM
Maybe this kid will pitch like Matt Beech. Anything's possible.
Posted by: aksmith | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 06:48 PM
It really is a shame that this series has to be tainted by that taint, TBag.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:02 PM
No one mentioned it yet, but standard lineup for the Phils:
Victorino, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, Ibanez, Ruiz, Valdez, Hamels
For the Braves:
Infante, Heyward, Prado, Lee, McCann, Diaz, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Beachy
This lineup probably gives the Braves their worst OF defense of the various combinations that they'd be willing to use.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:04 PM
Sad that when you posted "standard lineup" I already assumed that it included Valdez.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:07 PM
Nice start.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:09 PM
Because those chumps over at Talkingchop.com like to do this so much after strike outs:
STFD
And that's the last time I'll ever do that.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:09 PM
Ah yes, 3 straight days of Wheeler professing his man-love for Heyward, too.
I need to switch to the radio broadcast.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:12 PM
CJ, what does talkingchop say after a 5-4-3 DP?
Posted by: Spitz | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:12 PM
anyone know where you can watch the game online for free?
Posted by: outofmarket | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:13 PM
so why isn't Dom Brown in the line up...hasn't he seen this pitcher before? rh pitcher?
Posted by: Steve | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:14 PM
Spitz: They call it a Vidro. Maybe because Jose Vidro grounded into a lot of DPs? A Heyward hit is an Autohit.
They're weird.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:14 PM
Steve, who do you sit for Dom to start? Redhot Ibanez, Redhot Werth, or Orangehot Victorino?
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:15 PM
Calling the low strike tonight, eh?
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:15 PM
Steve: Bocock is the only player on the Phils roster to have seen this guy before. And Brown hasn't played in something like 6 weeks... so there's NO cause to start him tonight. Who would you sit down?
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:16 PM
Dom is hurt, which is why he hasn't even pinch-hit recently. There's an article in today's paper about it, available on Philly.com
Posted by: Jack | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:16 PM
At least Vic waited until the 6th pitch to pop up.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:17 PM
Steve: In a game this important, do you really want your starting lineup to include a .214 hitter, who hasn't had a single AB in the last 2 weeks? Who would he replace?
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:17 PM
Bah... that's what I get for referencing their defensive OF.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:17 PM
Is it just me or does the zone seem huge tonight?
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:18 PM
Typical.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:18 PM
This game feels like a loss. We're getting dominated by an undrafted AA pitcher.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:19 PM
Two hard hit balls. That's a good sign.
Posted by: Matt | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:19 PM
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/zoneplot.php-pitchSel=all&game=gid_2010_09_20_atlmlb_phimlb_1&sp_type=1&s_type=7.gif
Talk about calling that low strike. Beachy will kill us if he gets that call all night.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:20 PM
Looks like the bandbox is playing like the Grand Canyon tonight in left.
Posted by: aksmith | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:21 PM
An undrafted AA pitcher, but one who's pitched his way into legit prospect-dom.
Posted by: Tray | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:21 PM
Bandbox.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:23 PM
Great. Everything about this game feels like a loss. Cole is due for a bad game.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:23 PM
Bah... McCann always has been a Phillies killer. They should just walk him every time.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:23 PM
First inning, Polanco and Utley hit the ball squarely and a good distance. Both of them hit a 4-seam fastball, around 92 mph.
The Phillies hit fastballs well. Expect at least 4 runs in the first 7 innings.
Posted by: philwynk | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:24 PM
McCann, going into night, had a career OPS of .997 against Hamels. That's his 6th double off of him in 34 career ABs.
Posted by: Tray | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:24 PM
I hate Brian McCann.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:25 PM
Why feed mccann a fastball like that?
Posted by: Steve | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:25 PM
Hmm, lots of fastballs tonight from Hamels.
Posted by: Matt | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:25 PM
Not the best start here.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:25 PM
Hamels getting smoked right now. They're jumping all over balls over the plate.
Posted by: Jack | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:25 PM
Cole Hamels is mentally weak. Never could pitch in a big game.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:26 PM
The Braves' lineup isn't all that great, but it sure does have a lot of Phillies killers. McCann, Diaz & Prado all mash against us.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:26 PM
Melky 4-9 off of Hamels lifetime.
Posted by: Tray | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:28 PM
Ok, that wasn't so bad.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:28 PM
Great job Cole, Great Job.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:28 PM
Wow... Braves lead off with single, double, single and get just one run? Nice Houdini act there by Cole.
Now let's get some runs!
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:28 PM
Good job getting out of it. Now let's hit. Howard hits one out here.
There, I said something good about Howard. He better make me look good.
Posted by: Jack | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:28 PM
So after 1 inning we're being dominated and gonna lose. BL is the best.
Posted by: BloodStripes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:29 PM
He used Happ's old smoke and mirrors there.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:29 PM
You gotta pitch around McCann whenever possible, in this series.
Posted by: Jack | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:29 PM
This game feels like a game that feels like a loss until it's all of a sudden a lopside Phils win.
Posted by: Lincoln Hawkes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:30 PM
Bloodstripes, the kid has a no-hitter going against us and the Phils NEVER hit guys the first time they see them! The sky is falling!!!
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:30 PM
As long as Cole pitches around Chipper, he'll be fine. And McCann. And Diaz. And . . .
He'll be fine.
Posted by: aksmith | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:31 PM
Overpaid.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:31 PM
A single would have been better, considering who's coming up.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:32 PM
Howard always disappoints me. I expected a homer there.
Posted by: Jack | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:32 PM
"Cole Hamels is mentally weak. Never could pitch in a big game."
08 WS was nothing of course. Tell me you are joking CJ.
Posted by: BloodStripes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:32 PM
Way to go fatwallet.
Posted by: Lincoln Hawkes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:32 PM
Big problem should have realized that Werth hates RISP. Should have just stopped at first like the singles hitter he's become.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:33 PM
That was not a strike, Wheels.
Posted by: Dukes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:33 PM
nice work getting out of a dicey inning. Would be nice for the Phils to get a couple of runs early, get the crowd fired up, put some pressure on the kid and not let him settle in, and not let the Braves think this is going to be anything other than a long series.
Phils are making good contact thus far.
Posted by: Bob | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:35 PM
Howard cost them a run by not taking 3rd on that fly ball.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:36 PM
Unless he scores anyhow, that is.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:37 PM
Chooch is the man!
Posted by: Thump Bump | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:37 PM
M
V
P
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM
Chooch is en fuego with RISP.
Posted by: Bob | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM
Choooooooooooooooooooooch. Hit that beaking ball perfectly. Awesome hittin'
Posted by: BloodStripes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM
Ladies and Gentlemen, Carlos Ruiz.
Posted by: Steve | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM
bap- the sentence should have included the word "potentially". Senor OCTUBRE!
Posted by: mikeh | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM
The kid should have shown Chooch the respect he deserves!
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:38 PM
Bloodstripes: Come on man, who are you talking to? :-)
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:39 PM
I lied, Hoover, Bocock and Mayberry Jr have all seen Beachy.
Posted by: CJ | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:40 PM
Phillie-killer or not, I'll take Chooch over McCann 7 days a week and twice on Sundays.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:40 PM
Chooch just made BAP look ridiculous, and a man in his position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.
Posted by: Lincoln Hawkes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:40 PM
Vick should have pitched tonight.
Posted by: Thump Bump | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:41 PM
I'm sure it's just my imagination, but I would love to see a graphic of Ruiz at the plate waiting for the pitch now, next to one from say, three years ago. He just seems to have a much more confident presence, not someone a pitcher would take lightly at all, a far cry from the automatic chopped DP ball machine of times past.
Posted by: Bob | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:42 PM
Lincoln: I don't mind looking ridiculous but I actually added my 7:37 caveat a few seconds before Chooch's hit.
Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:43 PM
Who in the hell at Bigelow thought that Joe Torre would be a good spokesman to sell Green Tea to Phillies fans? Was LaRussa not available?
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:43 PM
Chooch for MVP.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:44 PM
Cole getting squeezed?
Posted by: Matt | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:45 PM
Aw...c'mon. That was a strike.
Posted by: Andy | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:45 PM
Bap: Saw the caveat after I reloaded. Truth is I watched the Godfather for the umptillionth time last night and that line has been going through my head all day. Saw a chance to use it, and took it.
Posted by: Lincoln Hawkes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:45 PM
@ CJ.......LOL......sarcasm is good.
1-2-3 for Cole, alright!!!
Posted by: BloodStripes | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:46 PM
Cole got pissed...he's in this now.
Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:46 PM
Lincoln - I knew I recognized it that line. Not too shabby, truth be told.
Posted by: Call me Ishmael | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:47 PM
Can we all chip in and buy a Phanatic Around Town for clout? A pink one, if they have it.
Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, September 20, 2010 at 07:47 PM