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Friday, September 10, 2010

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NOOOOO! I'm going to that game. We have three top flight starters and I always see Kendrick or Blanton.

At least it's the Mets. Good chance at being a W.

I agree, Jason. As you say, Kendrick has pitched decently against the Mets before, particularly in that park.

I just don't want him on this team next year.

Happy Birthday to Danys

RSB: Who would you replace Kendrick with?

Bay Slugga, that would be Pete Gray.

Baez has been just awful this season. He's a proven commodity to the extent that he has been proven terrible.

Over/under on Danny Baez appearances for the rest of the season:

1.5

Mathieson has one last shot this offseason to learn that splitter or he will likely be slated as a "AAA" guy for the rest of his career.

Smee - as has been discussed a nauseum on this site, that simply isn't true.

My bad, thought you were referring to KK, not Baez.

Fatalotti and RSB are representative of posters here who just don't like certain guys and thus, all logic and rational thinking is replaced by emotion.

RSB argued for weeks that the Abreu trade was a tremendous deal for the Phillies, the high quality of the prospects we got in return, Abreu was a cancer etc. simply because he hated Abreu.

Jack and Andy blast Kendrick at every turn because they predicted failure for him 3 years ago and he's making them look stupid.

Fatalotti knows almost nothing about prospects or teams other than the Phillies, so has no clue what it would take to get a reliable 5th starter with an ERA below 4.85.

So it goes.

In the Mets defense, those wounded Vets probably don't have the stomach to watch a Mets game either.

NEPP: If you believe, as you state in your Utley example, that using a single season of UZR and UZR 150 to identify how a player is doing is accurate and useful, then you also have to believe that J-Roll's defense has been incredibly, wildly erratic over the past 4 years, no?

Does watching the games tell you that?

why is it always KK or fat Joe pitching when we are on national tv

Clout I already responded to your rollins tangent in the last thread. UZR shows the Rollins has always been above average at SS...its not as erratic as you are trying to make it seem. Ibanez in 09 is a better example of sample size flux.

"Jack and Andy blast Kendrick at every turn because they predicted failure for him 3 years ago and he's making them look stupid."

Making them look stupid would be KK holding down a 3.5 ERA over the course of a season.

If someone predicts you'll fail a test and you end up getting a D+, it's not exactly like you shattered expectations and proved your doubters wrong.

And that's coming from a person who is neither for or against KK. I think the real problem for a lot of folks is that KK has no significant upside. They could tolerate that 4.85 ERA a lot better if there was a chance he could continue to work and be a legit #2 or 3. But right now, it looks like what you see now is what you are always going to get.

I have no problem with KK starting Saturday (or any other day as our 5th starter) if he's pitching comparably to that 4.85 ERA.

Hell, the NL average ERA is 4.5, meaning that roughly 1/2 of the pitchers are higher than that and 1/2 are under that. I'll take just a smidge over that from the guy who is supposed to be our worst every 5th day starting pitcher. Not a bad spot to be in.

However, all of that is predicated that he's pitching like the pitcher who has put up those numbers thus far this year. The last few outings, he hasn't exactly exemplified that same pitcher.

The best part, though? Now we get to bang on KK, yet again, for another solid 48 hours or so, then move to the postmortem. Good for site traffic!

"In the Mets defense, those wounded Vets probably don't have the stomach to watch a Mets game either."

LOL, I know. I mean, haven't they suffered enough already??

As I was about to allude to in the previous thread, Utley "makes plays on balls that most 2b never even touch" because he cheats to the pull side for the hitter. He may have quick reactions, but his "range" can be attributed to playing the odds.

I would love to know the amount of balls in the hole that Chase gets to off the bat of a righty, or the amount that are up the middle from a lefty.

I think it is ok to not be a fan of Kyle Kendrick. I support him and hope for the best, and he's done well for much of this year, but criticism of him is more than justified.

Perhaps, there are posters who are a little over-the-top in complaints, but it works the other way too. Some of his fan boys act like he's Doc Gooden circa 1986.

Utley relies on great positioning becase he's smart and scouts the oopposing hitters tendencies...part of being a gret defender.

Jesus Christ, clout. Kendrick seems like a perfectly good guy to me. He happens to stink as a major league starting pitcher. You don't believe the Phillies could at least *try* to do better over than winter than resign themselves to another season of wavering over whether to skip Kendrick's turn or option him to the minors?

NEPP: So these numbers do not look erratic to you?

2.7/2.4
12.9/15.2
4.6/5.0
6.5/12.8

And the sun sets in the East too, right?

Other than the 12.9 year its utterly consistent. That year was likely sample size. Utley doesn't have that issue so you're argumenth is a tad weak.

Heather: Kendrick was projected by scouts as a back-end rotation starter. That was the expectation for him. Please explain how he has failed.

Clout -- Do you have the afternoon off? You are really trying hard to stir the sh!t up today aren't you?

BedBeard: Emotional, irrational rants are the bread and butter of Beerleaguer and you supply many of them.

Some of us simply like to point out the difference between emotion and reality.

Personally, I'd just as soon Worley take his job next season because I like Worley's stuff better. But the rants against KK, like most rants here, have little to do with reality.

"Heather: Kendrick was projected by scouts as a back-end rotation starter. That was the expectation for him. Please explain how he has failed."

I can't explain that because I never said he failed.

I DID say he didn't make his doubters look stupid by blowing them out of the water. That's not at all akin to saying he failed, however.

NEPP: The argument isn't weak and it's silly to be arguing. As I said, even the supporters of UZR and UZR150 say that it's best when viewed in multi-year chunks.

You disagree and think a single year is just fine. And when the stats show wild fluctuations you pretend there aren't any wild fluctuations, that 2.4, 15.2, 5.0 and 12.8 are really just about the same number.

Bizarre.

I know I've been told time and time again that wins tell you nothing... but KK is 33-22 in his ML career.

And people on here act like 5th starters grow on trees.

With the payroll this team has, are you all really advocating spending money on some burnout vet to replace Kendrick? Or are you longing for marginal minor leaguers like Worley and Carpenter hoping they can suddenly become a ML pitcher?

As recently as August 4th, his 21st start of the year, his ERA was 4.37. Was KK an unacceptable pitcher then? Or are we getting rid of him because his last month has been more bad than good?

What's the standard here? What is the expectation?

KK has had 11 starts in which he's pitched at least 6 innings and given up 2 or fewer earned runs. He's also got a complete game in which he gave up just 3 ERs.

By the way... Jamie Moyer's ERA this season? 4.84. His ERA last season? 4.94. And that guy gets celebrated on here.

The dislike for KK on Beerleaguer is irrational.

Clout: sigh. I don't think you've ever made a genuine point without having to take a shot.

anon: The page views have been slumping the past few days and I haven't been posting much, so JW told me to get off my butt and earn my money.

Clout, are you 50% or 100% Vulcan?

Glad Clout's reading today because I found a hat for him.

"By the way... Jamie Moyer's ERA this season? 4.84. His ERA last season? 4.94. And that guy gets celebrated on here."

I find Moyer vastly more entertaining than KK even if their ERAs are the same. Watching a guy strike out on an 82 mph "fastball", frustrating an entire lineup by painting the corners with junk and soft stuff, leaving guys walking away from the plate shaking their heads.... To me, that's vastly entertaing, and I love watching it.

I guess that's why I am a little easier on Moyer than KK even if their stats might indicate they are roughly the same pitcher...because when Moyer performs well, he brings me a lot more enjoyment than KK does.

I'd rather see Worley in NY. It's possible he has a future on this team, whereas Kendrick is on his way out the door. And I certainly wouldn't allow Kyle to pitch at CBP again this season (read: ever again). But whatever. If the Phillies hit vs. the Mets, they'll Win. If they don't, they won't.

BedBeard: "Clout: sigh. I don't think you've ever made a genuine point without having to take a shot."

This from a poster who made a genuine point and then added, "Some of his fan boys act like he's Doc Gooden circa 1986." !!!!!


Yeah, I did it once. you do not post without an attack. It's your shtick, I get it.

When we talk about KK, it comes down to this, he is a fifth starter, it is unrealistic to expect him to pitch 7 innings ever start and give up 3 runs or less. That being said is perfectly okay to express ones displeasure with him if he gets shelled 3 starts in a row. As far as Worley, I think its a bit tough on him to say he is a marginal minor leauger. It's not like hes been sitting in AAA, he's been developing as a pitcher and I for one would like to see him get another chance to start.

mego: Four starts in a row. And five of his last six.

clout, please, please, please tell me that you have a twitter account and what your username is? The irregular popping in and out of BL just isn't enough for me.

thanks ishmael. the eric show story is indeed tragic. i also had to shed a tear.

Well, if 300 wins is the litmus test for the Hall of Fame, then Kyle Kendrick is 11% of the way to Cooperstown! If he can just keep up this pace for 24 more years or so...

If C*$%& L@# were here, KK wouldn't have a spot on our rotation.

In all seriousness, I think Worley has an advantage because the Mets haven't seen him. Do you really think that a team that is playing out the string is going to watch a bunch of tape from the minor leagues to figure out a guy? I don't think so.

The Mets are seriously awful. Lots of tickets selling on StubHub, though, so I think Phils fans really might dominate the stadium tonight.

If we manage to clinch the division with enough games to spare, I'd like to see Baez, Zagurski, Worley and Mathieson get as much work as possible.

There's a chance that Baez could work himself back into form a'la Myers 2009.

Kyle Kendrick, Age 22 season at AA:
12 GS, 3.21 ERA, 1.230 WHIP

Vance Worley, Age 22 season at AA:
19 GS, 3.20 ERA, 1.331 WHIP

But... I'm now told that Vance Worley is a much better choice than Kyle Kendrick...

Will Schweitzer: I guess it's possible Mathieson comes back off the DL before this season is over, but I doubt it. It looks like we'll next see him in Spring Training 2011.

CJ, not necessarily better, but different. Which could mean better.

I dont think Mathieson will ever be an effective MLB pitcher...for a variety of reasons.


clout has yet to explain why Utley's UZR numbers show him to be a bad defender...he continues to go off on a tangent about Rollins. Please explain why the following numbers show Utley to be bad this year:

UZR/150
07: 14.9
08: 19.3
09: 12.2
10: 15.2
Career: 14.0


The model of consistency.

The Mets were giving away tickets for the series with the Phils. I guess they wanted to make sure there were more Met fans than Phillie fans in he seats.

I love the travelling Phillie fans.

Damn. I thought that Clout had been DFA'd.

Jimmy is out of the line up tonight..Valdez is batting 8th playing shortstop...Not a good sign, but at the same time have to be cautious.

Spitz: "CJ, not necessarily better, but different. Which could mean better."

And people wonder why I call the KK-hating irrational.

Just like Scott Mathieson is a better closer than Brad Lidge.

Just like Antonio Bastardo is a better LOOGY than JC Romero.

Greg Dobbs, Age 22 season at Single A: .324/.394/.489

Ryan Howard, Age 22 season at Single A: .280/.367/.460

But... I'm now told that Ryan Howard is a much better choice than Greg Dobbs...

CJ, not the perfect comparison there or all the relevant numbers. There's a good argument for Kendrick over Worley this weekend, but you don't have to twist the numbers of leave important ones out to do so.

Worley threw 112+ IP in AA this year and then 45+ more in AAA. He had a 6.8 K9 overall.

Kendrick only threw ~88 IP in AA at 22 and only had a 5.5 K9.

Kendrick isn't terrible, Worley probably doesn't have much upside, but Worley has a better minor league record than Kendrick.

MaDubbs: Not surprising. The moment he pulled up lame I figured he'd miss at least some time. No need to rush him back vs. the Mets.

I'd bet they're just being cautious with Rollins.

"I'd bet they're just being cautious with Rollins."

Your lips to God's ears...

Sophist: Thank you for adding a little rationality.

amaro said they were going to be overly cautious with rollins

So the backup to Valdez tonight is Polanco?

mal, Rollins isn't starting. That doesn't mean they wouldn't put him in if Valdez gets injured.

no the backup is rollins. he could play if he had to

"Fatalotti knows almost nothing about prospects or teams other than the Phillies, so has no clue what it would take to get a reliable 5th starter with an ERA below 4.85."

This is priceless, Clout. I mean, really good stuff here.

I guess it matters not to you, though, when I've stated in the past that I'm quite aware that Kendrick is better than the vast majority of "5th starters" in the league, and in fact, he's better than a fair amount of teams #4 starters as well.

I guess it also matters not to you that I've stated on multiple occasions that I'm very much aware of the fact that the Phillies don't have a legitimate option to replace KK, and they probably don't feel the need to upgrade the 5th starter's role in light of their three aces, and other needs on the team.

But, again, this stuff probably doesn't matter to you, when all you really want to do is trash me and label me as an "irrational" KK "hater", and well, I was an easy target. I get it. No, I really do.

But here's the kicker clout, and CJ as well. All I've ever argued about KK is that he is a legitimately poor starting pitcher, and that, should the Phillies have a low cost, low risk opportunity to allow someone to COMPETE for the job in ST next year, well, what could it hurt?

But I'm sure you're going to come back to me with some dreck about how he's better than the garbage that the Pirates or Royals or Indians or Nationals throw out there every day (all those pitchers on all those terrible teams skewing the "average" pitcher's ERA), so we should all just be happy and peachy about Kendrick, and even when he gives up 4-5 runs in 4 straight starts, we should all just count our lucky stars that he's not Charlie Morton or the second coming of Steve Blass.

And if that works for you, fine, have fun. But I recognize that KK is a poor major league pitcher, and as long as he's on this team, I'm going to point that out.

I hope he gets better, I truly do, but a 4.98 ERA does not assuage my fears as of this moment.

Sophist: That's a little misleading as well... one of the reasons Worley has a better minor league record overall is because he's spent much more time pitching there. KK jumped from AA to the majors (with some time back there last year).

Breaking news: Johan Santana will have season ending surgery..not sure if we were scheduled to face him this weekenend or the next series, but certainly good news if we were.

bap: You're not the first to compare Dobbs to Howard. Beerleaguer tells me neither have a good glove and neither can hit LHP.

Thanks for proving my point about how stupid Beerleaguer can be!

bap: So you think Vance Worley is going to be as good as Ryan Howard?

bap: And thank you, also, for giving us Greg Dobbs' numbers from A- ball... and Ryan Howard's numbers from A ball... in two different leagues. I mean, far be it from me to accuse you of presenting apples to oranges while I presented apples to apples.

KK-haters are irrational... and you guys continue to prove it over and over again.

CJ, I was comparing their age 22 seasons. Worley's time in the minors overall isn't relevant. I'm not guaranteeing that Worley matches Kendrick's MLB career to date, but I wouldn't pretend Kendrick was a more promising minor league player to make the case.

CJ, what's irrational about not thinking that Kyle Kendrick is a good starting pitcher?

Don't conflate the issue with whether or not the Phillies have at-the-ready better options, or whether or not he's better than other 5th starters. Are we not allowed to dislike Kyle Kendrick (as a player) based on his poor performance this year?

Do you claim that his performance hasn't been poor this year?

If so, how do you explain the obvious exasperation in the voices of the coaches when talking about one of his poor performances, or the fact that they shipped him off to AAA after his shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals in July, and the only reason he returned was because Jamie Moyer immediately got injured?

Are the coaches and FO "irrational KK haters" as well? I mean, they obviously aren't thrilled about his performance, and while they aren't ripping him apart on TV (as well they shouldn't), it's obvious that my interpretation of KK is more in line with the FO than you'd care to admit.

But I suppose they don't know much about prospects or any team outside of the Phillies either, just clout would have you believe about me.

Right, CJ. Because Howard is a top fielder and has no problem hitting lefties.

Can't he be both a very productive player AND one with some glaring weaknesses?

What's so "stupid?"

Sophist: I'm not suggesting KK was a better or more promising minor league player. Never did. I'm saying that there's little to suggest that Worley will somehow be vastly superior.

The discussions about KK on this site are overwhelmingly disproportionate to the effect he has had on the team's performance and results.

Sophist: FYI... if you want to compare their complete age 22 seasons, perhaps KK should get a tiny bit of credit for a 118 ERA+ at the MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL over 121 IP. I'm sure the rest of Worley's time in the minors was awesome and all... but KK had the vastly superior age 22 season.

Little Ollie, I think you're right. And they probably wouldn't rage quite as much if posters like CJ and Clout didn't jump down someone's throat for pointing out that KK's performance this year has been poor, conluding that said posters are "irrational", "biased", "stupid", and, in some cases, simply know nothing about baseball.

I just wonder how bad Kyle Kendrick would have to be before complaining about him would no longer be taboo. I hope that day never comes, because, I don't know if the Phillies could survive.

It's going to be a zoo around Citi Field tonight and for the entire weekend because there will also be a big crowd coming in for the U.S. Tennis Open.

Hopefully, anyone who's driving up there this weekend will give themselves time to get through all of that.

Fatalotti: There's a big difference between saying that KK has pitched poorly the last month and saying that KK is a terrible pitcher who should never start for the Phillies again.

The former is reasonable. The latter is irrational... and also the norm on Beerleaguer.

Cj, who said he'd be vastly superior?

CJ, have I ever stated that KK should never pitch for the Phillies again, devoid as they are of a better option?

I don't believe I have.

I will contend, though, that a guy like a Worley should get a shot at competing for the job in spring training. I see no problem with that. And if the Phillies find a little spare change, and they've already taken care of larger, more pressing needs, it wouldn't hurt to bring in a veteran on the cheap and give him a chance to compete (this will probably end up being Jamie Moyer).

Fatalotti: Why do you think every reference is about you? Just take a moment and go back through the thread and you'll find it!

Sophist: Fair enough. There's little evidence that Worley will be at all better. There's guessing... but count me among those who don't want to guess in the middle of a playoff chase.

These same people wanted Mathieson to close and Bastardo to be our LOOGY.

I'm just sayin'.

CJ, this wasn't written by you (clout wrote it), but you and Clout have been tooting the same horn, so I've been addressing both of you as one entity.

"Fatalotti and RSB are representative of posters here who just don't like certain guys and thus, all logic and rational thinking is replaced by emotion."

I'm just trying to figure out how this statement applies to me.

CJ, comparing Mathison to Lidge (who was the MVP of a WS team two years ago and has had spectacular years before) is ridiculous. Comparing Worley to KK is not ridiculous.

As for Bastardo vs. Romero --- who gives an s*. I dont trust either.

Fatalotti: You'll have to ask him. Clout doesn't speak for me. In fact, if you ask him, I'm an idiot.

rollins says he hopes to be back by sunday. lidge is available tonight

CJ, well at least that's one thing we have in common.

Actually Fatalotti, it's every single person who has posted on Beerleaguer, except for clout

Fatalotti: It applies to you because, essentially, you are saying all 5th starters are "poor." That is not a rational statement. You say Kendrick is a bad pitcher having a poor season.

His ERA is in the lower 20% of MLB SPs in the rotation long enough to have more than 140 IP this season. In other words, the lower fifth, which is exactly where you'd expect to find a 5th starter performing like a 5th starter. For most of the season, his ERA was higher than that, but he has essentially sunk to this level by having 4 bad starts in a row.

Compared to other 5th starters, Kendrick is about average. We'll see where he ends up at season's end.

But to repeatedly say that Kendrick shouldn't be compared to other 5th starters that Kendrick is just plain lousy is an emotional point of view, not a rational one.

If you say that you wish the Phillies would upgrade at 5th starter or you think Worley has more upside and better stuff or you doubt Kendrick will ever improve his command, that's perfectly fine. But to condemn him for performing like a 5th starter, when he's never been projected as any more than that, is irrational.

That's one thing we ALL have in common.

SmokeyJoe, one of several posters whose every post is about me.

Fatalotti, nice to see you smoked out that screen name.

"I’ll take the veteran sub-mediocrity over the unknown"

I love this quote, simply because it shows the vast dicotomy between the BL proprietor and all that frequent his blog.

"If you say that you wish the Phillies would upgrade at 5th starter or you think Worley has more upside and better stuff or you doubt Kendrick will ever improve his command, that's perfectly fine. But to condemn him for performing like a 5th starter, when he's never been projected as any more than that, is irrational."

Especially since Kendrick was 6th on the depth chart to start the year.

sophist: Exactly right.

>Kendrick is on his way out the door.

What the?

where did you get this idea? Isn't he under control, cheaply for several more years? 5th starters are what they are. we aren't the yankees, but we have 3 legit #1's. Its near impossible to have 5.

Plus, KK is still developing. getting thrown to the wolves and surviving at age 22 is pretty nifty. He still hasnt peaked in terms of age, so there could be more upside.

Can someone start a new thread where KK arguments are prohibited?

I can't wait for the game to start tonight.

WP: The difference between JW and many of the posters here is that JW never declared Bastardo the next Santana, never praised the prospects acquired in the Abreu deal, never clamored for Cody Ransom to be recalled, never thought Mathieson was a major league closer and never believed that Tyson Gillies' numbers at High Desert were an accurate reflection of his talent.

Not sure I buy the notion that the only rational way to judge a player is by pre-season expectations. When Pedro Feliz sucked, he sucked, no matter how much we knew he was going to suck before the season. Chase Utley, even though he might not be performing to the level we had expected, is still a great player.

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