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Friday, September 17, 2010

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Kinda knew, I'd have to re-post this, always seem to post right before the game thread:

As for tonight's game... I'm expecting the buzz at the stadium will start to feel more playoff like. I'm already feeling the butterflies for Sunday... and Monday night especially, when the Braves arrive I feel it will be just absolute electric in the stadium...

The fans have really paced themselves this year. I know some on here have griped about the fans this year, as being nonchalant or not booing enough or whatever, but each homestand, the energy has gotten better and better. The last game I was at, the Phils won to finally take first place. And it was a nice crowd... but it wasn't electric. Like they were pacing themselves. After the last 3 years, I can tell you, YOU REALLY NEED TO PACE YOURSELF to through November.

Even though its the Nats, with the cooler weather and I imagine rally towels will start tonight?? This crowd should be relatively juiced. But Monday night... I JUST can't wait...

These last 9 regular season homegames could just about seal the deal for the Phils. I'll be at 4 of the final 9... Sunday, Monday, Friday and Sunday...

whew... I don't think I can be more excited...

I will happily join in singing the praises of Roy O. and Vic.

Marquis vs. Phils (2010):

3 GS, 0-3, 13 1/3 IP, 18.78 ERA, 2.03 WHIP

With Oswalt starting, understand why the Phils are favored tonight everywhere from -260 to -310.

Risk $1 for a payout that ranges from .$32 to $.38. No arbitrage opportunity here.

It is an 8.78 ERA. Like it matters.

Marquis actually has pitched fairly well since he came back of the DL even though he is just 2-5.

7 GS, 38 IP, 3.55 ERA including his start Aug 20th vs. Phils where he went 5 IP, 1 ER.

My bet is that he gives the Nats a shot to win tonight of something along the lines of 6 IP, 3-4 ER.

Hamm, you're going to a lot of games this last homestand! I'll be there Wednesday, and I'll be bringing my rally towels - although I imagine they'll be passing them out. I took them on Labor Day, but that game was such a dud, we had little use for them.

Just keep on winning Phils. Series after series. The fourth September in a row of winning Phillies baseball. Ain't nothin' better!

@Gbrett -- yeah... sunday and the plan c package... of course i'm the guy in the stands refreshing beerleaguer on his smartphone the whole game...

When the Braves come to town, the Phils and their fans will show them what the home crowd for a playoff contender SHOULD look and feel like--alive, frenzied, thunderous.

I want to see the Phils build big leads in a couple of these games with the Nats, because I want Lidge to be given the chance to show whether his last implosion was a fluke. If he does it again, then they need to hit the eject button before he costs them another shot at the World Series.

Marquis would actually be a decent reclamation project for next year, although, even with his bad and injury-plagued 2010, he'll probably be out of the Phillies' price range. But enough about next year . . .

How come someone can pitch well in x number of games in a row, then have 1 bad outing and have people pushing the panic button? I'll worry about Lidge if he has a bunch of blown saves in a row.

He's under contract with the Nats for next year, anyway.

BB: Oh, it seems you're right. For some reason, I thought he had signed a one-year deal.

Old Phan--totally agree on Lidge. Consider the alternatives in the NL contenders: Cordero? I don't trust him in a big spot. Wagner? Been down that road before; "all the runs are unearned, but so what?" Heath Bell? Let's see him on a 45 degree night @CBP up 6-5. Brian Wilson? Let's see if that act plays in September. Huston Street? hmmm...

All of those guys are of course capable of successfully saving games, and Lidge may of course blow one. The point is that given his experience and potential, I think I'd just as soon have Lidge out there as any of those guys.

(In the AL, I'd rather have Rivera and Soriano of course, but Neftali Feliz and Jon Rauch/Matt Capps/Fuentes? No thanks.)

They could cut off Rivera's right arm and force him to throw LH and I'd still take him in a critical Save situation.

NEPP - from that piece it doesn't look like sabermetrics would be the reason he got in, but rather the old-school milestone of 500 HRs.

Mo Rivera 2008-2010: 1.51 ERA, 113 Saves, 298 ERA+, 0.791 WHIP.

Those are his Age 38-40 seasons and he's putting up best numbers of his career now...its sick.

****NEPP - from that piece it doesn't look like sabermetrics would be the reason he got in, but rather the old-school milestone of 500 HRs. ****

Its the fact that they even discuss him getting in as no voter would ever put him in regardless of his raw numbers. He's just not a HoF.

How is that sabermetrics going wrong? Decades before sabermetrics existed, anybody could have told you that if Dunn kept hitting home runs he'd have a Hall of Fame shot, given the talismanic importance people attach to certain counting stats thresholds. Really, Dunn making the Hall would be a counter-sabermetric outcome, as more advanced stats reveal he's undeserving.

I dont see Dunn as a 500 HR guy 30-40 years ago...I just dont.

Since 2004, the only player in MLB who has hit more HRs than Dunn is Pujols. He is a truly prodigious HR hitter, even if that's his only skill. I think the sabermetrics community would scoff at Dunn's HOF credentials like they did Dawson and Rice before their inductions.

Isn't Dunn something like a poor man's Killebrew? Killebrew, in one season, led the league in home runs and RBI's - while hitting .243! Talk about feast or famine.

Killebrew's power was more like Howard's than Dunn's.

Dunn is just a good to very good power hitter who has no other talent really. He can take pitches and crush mistakes...and that's about it.

There goes the no-hitter.

Game over

Wind is blowing...could be a shootout tonight.

Wind is blowing...could be a shootout tonight.

With Marquis on the mound tonight, Oswalt should get plenty of run support.

Does Oswalt have good numbers against Marquis at the plate?

Dunn is 3rd among active players in HR/AB ratio. He has excellent power, not just very good. Unfortunately that's pretty much all he has.

He could quite conceivably push 600 career HRs, at which point he'd be a virtual lock for the HOF...and not because of sabermetrics.

NEPP - Rivera's numbers at his age are certinaly impressive, but in this new day of baseball, you have to question whether they are "natural" or not, right?

Is Espinosa the guy that replaced Nyjer Morgan? Stupid suspension!

I dont see Dunn sticking around that long. His bat will slow and that low avg will dip below sustainable mlb hitting fast.

****NEPP - Rivera's numbers at his age are certinaly impressive, but in this new day of baseball, you have to question whether they are "natural" or not, right?****

Well, he's definitely seen a big dip in velocity over the years...he's just outwitting guys at this point.

Right down the middle for a ball.

Oh oh - looks like Oswalt is due for a bad start. PROBABLY BECAUSE HE'S PITCHED TOO MANY INNINGS THIS YEAR!!!!!

Dunn's actually a very underrated player. Hits a ton of homers and has a great OBP. Those may be his only 2 skills, but they're, by far, the 2 most important skills for a 1st baseman/corner outfielder to have. The HOF seems like a real reach, though. Maybe if he stuck around long enough to hit 600 homeruns. He's got a good chance to hit 500, but 500 homeruns ain't what it used to be.

Dunn's top comparables:

1. Jay Buhner
2. Pat Burrell
3. Richie Sexson

Not exactly HoFers.

To be clear, I'm not saying he'd be a deserving HOFer, just that he could quite possibly end up with somewhere between 550 and 600 HRs which would probably get him in with the old school voters.

Dunn doesn't drive in enough runs. For a guy that has always been a cleanup hitter, he's far too willing to take a pitch instead of swinging with RISP...and his RBI and RBI% numbers reflect that. Over 80% of his ABs have been as a 4/5 hitter over his career and he's never had more than 106 RBI.

How about the list of most similar through 29? Strawberry, Canseco, Reggie Jackson, Killebrew, Sosa, Kiner, Bonds.

****How about the list of most similar through 29? Strawberry, Canseco, Reggie Jackson, Killebrew, Sosa, Kiner, Bonds.****

Shh...that doesn't help my argument.

NEPP - sabermetricians will tell you that RBIs don't matter.

That'd be impressive if Polly won a GG at two different positions.

Didn't Biggio do that?

I agree to a point on RBIs but in Dunn's case, there's a pretty good sample size showing that he's just not a good cleanup hitter.

So, do you think Pudge is a HoF despite the Roids?

Zimmerman will likely win but Polly has been pretty good as a 3B with the glove.

Rose won GGs at 2 different positions IIRC. I think Biggio did too FWIW.

Marquis' begging for calls, and he hasn't been throwing strikes all night. The plate may get expanded if you have been throwing strikes, but not when you've been throwing balls.

Great LA quote on umpires being graded...

"Yeah, they're graded, but it's an all pass system."

I think Pudge is a HOFer but, then again, I think the same about Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens.

Werth with the bases loaded?

4-1 coming up baby!

Wheeler, don't worry that Howard didn't knock him in. Jayson Werth is up, and this is where he thrives!

Werth, don't pull a Valdez. That's all I ask.

There it was...he could have killed that.

They cannot let Marquis off the hook here.

Who said Werth can't hit with RISP??

Yeah baby...HE CRUSHED IT!

In the boxscore, that's a smash single up the middle.

Nats announcers claim reason that Werth has no RBIs is because Howard clears bases in front of him. They don't read BL.

Utley would have scooped that for an out. That's his specialty.

Any news of Rollins? Seems to be the forgotten man.

Was Zimmerman trying to juggle that ball?

Do the Nats and the Fish have the same fielding coaches?

I love Phillies baseball in September.

Ok, I need to report a problem with Gameday. I just logged on, and it says that Jayson Werth hit a single with the bases loaded.

I like a washed up Ibanez

the HBP does set up the DP ball...so that was probably the best thing Marquis could have done there against Chooch.

I know Valdez has gotten hits recently, but hitting Ruiz may have been a good thing for the Nats.

Let's hope not.

Babe Valdez

Damnit...though that was almost 100% a DP ball if it was clean.

I love Roy Oswalt. Look at that boyish grin. Great pickup.

You know a Braves fan is gonna claim a conspiracy cuz the ump broke up a double play.

Bobby Cox was ejected. Maybe he is done with this year.

Please walk Oswalt to score the run.

1-0 Mutts.

Yeah, just what I thought. Jason Marquis still stinks.

It's a shame that Valdez missed a chance to pad his gaudy GIDP totals. But don't fault him. He did his job by executing a perfectly-hit DP ball. It was only an odd piece of luck that prevented it from happening.

Duda just gave the Mets a 1-0 lead. His average rose to .105 on the hit.

I LOVE ROY OSWALT!!!

I guess Oswalt DOES have good career numbers against Marquis.

I can't believe the Nats pen is up already.

Wow.

Shades of opening day.

Roy Oswalt was 0-15 with RISP this year until that hit. Can some on do some Bayesian Statistics on that?

GBrettFan was worrying about the Phillies' bats earlier. GB? You there? I think they're ok tonight.

What did bobby get ejected for?

Spitz, it's pretty clear that Oswalt's WAR is too high, if he can't hit with RISP. The bum.

Mets up 2-0.

Maybe that was Jason Marquis's punishment for pitching on Yom Kippur.

Marquis with a 7.52 ERA now...and on the hook for all 3 runners.

And then Niese, the second-worst hitter in the lineup (Duda being the first, by the small sample size numbers anyway), knocked in another run.

well, i guess i can have a relaxed night here on the couch... This feels damn good. Chances we see one of our B-arms in the bullpen?

Heather - just general DBag'd-ness I'd suspect.

Hopefully Phils are saving some for the KK and Blanton games as well!

The Phillies are TRYING to hit into a DP...just not happening. Good RBI there from Vic.

Its a one out slaughter. Pile it on, 6 runs already. Phils on phire.

At tis pace, they'll score 81 runs tonight.

Marquis had to attend late Kol Nidre services. For the gentiles in the audience, that's for Yom Kippur. He's no Sandy Koufax.

6-1 phils
3-0 mutts. Niese got an RBI single off of Hanson.

Good times.

Make that 54 runs.

3-0 Mets.

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