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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

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Another great example of how single-season UZR is worthless. Here's Ibanez UZR for the past 4 seasons:

-19.5
-7.8
+3.9
-9.9

Howard's arm sucks but his ability to pick balls is pretty good actually. He's quite good at nabbing balls on one hop or in the dirt.


I just get the feeling Jayson Werth will play great defense down the stretch and (hopefully) in the playoffs. His problem has been lack of focus and now everyone is paying a little more attention.

Worthless as a fine-grained measure, but not so worthless if you're willing to accept some coarseness in your data. In three of the four seasons, UZR correctly pegged Ibanez as a bad outfielder. And in fact, he did look a lot better last year.

Hard-on followed by a wet blanket?

****His problem has been lack of focus and now everyone is paying a little more attention.****

100% this. The ability is there...the range, the good arm, the route running, etc. He just needs to focus and he's a great defensive RF.

UZR works better with more fielding opportunities...thus, an OF (who gets very few chances) needs far more data than say a middle infielder.

When a current year's data is right in line with all of a player's previous years, its usually pretty safe to say that that fielder is having a solid defensive year.

Unless, of course, you're clout and you have a axe to grind against Chase Utley.

Phils set up Hamels, Halladay, Oswalt to face Atlanta this weekend. Per Zolecki.

btw... why was howard's throw ill advised?

1) Because he should NEVER throw to second? well that's a stupid answer.

2) Because Bonifacio was running? Howard probably had a good idea that Bonifacio was dogging it.

3) Because we had a 7 run lead and that lead run didn't matter so get the easy out? Okay, I'll buy that. MAYBE.

But if you consider ANY throw to second from the first baseman THAT risky in a 7 run game why the F do you complain about him holding back throws in any other situation. In that case he should NEVER throw to second. See #1.

You should be taking the positive thought that he threw to second on insticts and threw a strike. And given that practicing that throw in a game situation is rare, the benefits outweigh the negatives.

People have complained all year (and justifiably so) about Ryno's throws to 2nd base. He throws a bullet to 2nd, maybe his best throw all year, but still gets criticized. He can't win.

Ryan Howard certainly CAN win. Anyone who doesn't know that throw was ill advised has never seen a baseball game. If that was Keith Hernandez at first, it would still be ill advised. And while it warms my heart any time a Howard throw does not involve the left fielder, it was not a heady baseball play in that situation.

" Anyone who doesn't know that throw was ill advised has never seen a baseball game."

Good one.

There was no way Howard was getting runner at first and Howard was leaning toward second when the got to ball and made a good throw and smart play to get runner at second

To my eye Werth and Ibanez are just slightly worse than last year. Vic is better. My eye is pretty worthless though.

Werth has had a terrible year in the field.

Ibanez usually catches what he gets to and usually throws to the correct base, but that's about it. He has limited range and a noodle arm.

Vic has been up and down in the field. Just like he has been at the plate.

Rollins has his worst fielding % since 2005.


Been a rough year for the defense.

I am sorry JW compliments to Amaro for saving his chips for Oswalt are silly. Sorry to bring this up but had he kept Lee, he could have held on to Happ or even then go for Oswalt (just kidding). All the Oswalt tranaction shows was that it was a mistake to let Lee go in the first place. This is not about spilled milk. Its about not complimenting someone who frankly screwed up.

RK is so sorry, right now.

RK, if you see it that way, then give Rube some credit for (privately) admitting he made a mistake and getting another great pitcher to make up for losing C---- L--

I hate getting into debates about defensive metrics, because they're imperfect.

I have to agree with Sophist, that, to my eye, Victorino has been better this season - when healthy.

Forgive me for harking back to such stone age numbers as ERRORS, the lack of which provide some evidence that a fielder, no matter how fleet to the ball, can actually CATCH the little white sphere with red laces, but Shane Victorino, despite his other deficiencies, catches just about everything he touches.

Since the beginning of 2006, he has logged 5,452.1 innings in the OF, or the equivalent of 606 9 inning games. He has made only 8 errors.

That's one error about every 76 games - approx. 2 per season.

AAMOF, Vic has only made 8 errors in his entire CAREER, over 5,661 innings and 1,539 chances going back to 2003.

Say what you want about him, but that's pretty impressive.

I agree with Sophist and awh regarding Vic.
I don't know if Raul is worse this year than last (looks the same to me) but Werth's defense has declined a bit this season.

Just to inject some substance into the debate about UZR sample sizes, this is from the Fangraphs UZR Primer:

"In fact, the year-to-year correlation of OPS for full-time players, somewhat of a proxy for reliability, is almost .7. UZR, in contrast, depending on the position, has a year-to-year correlation of around .5. So a year of OPS data is roughly equivalent to a year and half to two years of UZR."

Only an idiot would call others "idiot" for using a season's worth of UZR to examine fielding performance.

Gotta love JJ, Franzke, and LA ripping the Marlins' attendance at length to save JJ from his guaranteed-to-be-terrible rain delay callers.

The topic transition was both terribly awkward and genius:

"Gee, I hope the lousy weather doesn't keep fans away today."-LA

Wow, completely useless post. typical over-analyziation of the uber-nerd-fan. too much media and not enough content.

suck my UZR, thats what i say. go phils.

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