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Saturday, August 21, 2010

Comments

OP - The point about Jimenez' W-L is that he has a bunch of no decisions where almost any other pitcher would have gotten a well-deserved loss

- 5.2 IP, 6 R
- 6.0 IP, 7 R
- 5.1 IP, 6 R

And he has no losses like Halladay's 8 IP, 1 R game against FL or his 9 IP, 2 R loss to Pittsburgh, or his 9 IP, 0 R no decision against the Reds.

Not saying Jimenez hasn't had a great year, but when you want to pick one guy who's the best you'd think you would dig a little deeper.

Is anyone claiming that Jimenez is having the best year in baseball? He may have had the best 1st half, but I doubt anyone is claiming that now.

Pretty sure Jimenez is considered a major CY contender along with Doc and Wainwright.

Halladay has to be considered the front-runner at this point. Solid August, and he's starring on a contending team.

Allowing myself to put the cart WAY before the horse, I'm thinking about our postseason bench. If we carry 5 position players, they would probably be:

Schneider
Valdez
Gload
Sweeney
Francisco

But I really have to imagine they'd want to find a place for Dom Brown somewhere there. Sweeney makes Francisco somewhat redundant (just as Gload makes Brown somewhat redundant), and I know he hasn't put up great numbers, but he's a weapon I'd love to have in my back pocket.

Like I said, this is very premature. Writing it down does make me very happy to have Sweeney, though.

Old Phan - I just meant that I understood BAP's use of the term "gaudy" - not that I necessarily agree with it. I agree that a W/L record is a significant measure. It's like average with RISP - it is an actual measure of a players contributions to at least some extent.

In theory, you could have a pitcher with great peripheral stats overall, but whose negative metrics are accumulated when he falls apart at decisive moments in close games: for example, he performs great when the team is well ahead and allows all his earned runs in tight games.

In contrast, you could have another pitcher who has mediocre overall stats, but who consistently performs best at crucial moments in tight games: for example, he allows a lot of runs when the team is way ahead and allows nothing at all when the games are close.

In such situations, a W/L record would tell you something about a pitcher's contributions to his team that wouldn't be captured by other measures.

Of course, the MVP award, is really should be more of a measure of a player's contributions while a Cy Young is more of a measure of their performance - but still, I think that factoring in W/L in voting considerations has its merits.

And as far as CY goes, Halladay has really rocketed to 16 wins, hasn't he? Now, with eight starts remaining in the season, it seems perfectly likely that he'll hit the magic 20 number and earn himself the CY.

Sorry about the Felix/Feliz confusion.

Sophist - I think that the formula given on the website is a reasonable way to evaluate pitchers. Perhaps SIERA is better, but no one measure is perfect. Both CC and Price are in the ballpark in terms of ERA (which I think is the most important measure of a pitchers contributions to his team - I don't know how to sort by ERA+), innings pitched, etc. But within the measures you're aggregating to decide who's had the best season, W/L is worthy of some consideration as well.

I think that Hernandez is having a monster season and is the player who's likely to be hurt the most because of W/L record.

sifl: They could easily carry 6 bench players in the postseason. With KK or Blanton in the pen, there's no need to carry Herndon.

flipper - W/L means something, surely. But why does Ubaldo have 5 fewer losses than Halladay? Is that something he earned? He blew a 4 run lead against Boston. His team came back and won well after he left the game. Those are the kinds of situations we're talking about. Go through his gamelogs and compare them to Doc's head to head. We could speculate about how W/L may be meaningful or we could actually see what happened. Doc has had a better season.

As they handed Dobbs his assignment, he swung to knock it out of their hands in disappointment, but repeatedly missed; then he tried to crumble it up and throw it away, but dropped it; and then he tried to run for the bus out of town, but mistakenly boarded the one for Allentown.

Andy, can I assume you aren't the president of the Greg Dobbs fan club?

"Sophist, I did not remember that about McLain. Was he removed from those 7 games and then the Tigers went ahead?"

Old Phan, that was me.

In those games, McLain finished the top of the inning. His team was behind. The Tigers team came back in the bottom of the inning and took the lead, and he did not pitch thereafter. In a couple of cases he was removed for a PH. But, because he was THE PITCHER OF RECORD, he was credited with the win.

My point was not to disparage McLain accomplishment, because clearly, he kept his team close enough to win those games. (336 IP, 1.96 ERA) However, I did mean to illustrate that sometimes a pitcher's W - L record is influenced by factors other than how well a pitcher pitched - particularly in an individual game. As a recent example I offer Cole Hamels' two recent starts against the Mets.

This game:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WS2/WS2196807230.shtml

against the Washington Senators is an example. In the top of the 8th McLain was removes for a pinch hitter who singled in the winning run after Detroit had already tied the game.

There were six others like it during that season.

awh, very interesting. Of course, the team plays a huge factor in a pitcher's W-L, but seeing a 1.97 ERA does tell me that the overall performance that season was no fluke.
I generally see it as a bell curve, where the extremes in either direction (a 31-7 season or a 2-12 season) tell a more complete story than stats that fall more in the middle (like Cole or even Vice Roy this season). I just don't think you can win 20 games and not be damn good.

Yo, new thing.

Howard was activated, IMHO, for one reason:


Charlie wants the power in the lineup vs Strasburg. One bif dinger could make the difference tonight, though I really think it will boil down to which KK shows up:

Will it be "Good" KK, who can keep the Phils in the game until Strasbur's pitch count gets elevated and they can go after the Washington bullpen (although last night wasn't a great indicator), or will it be the KK who elevates the ball and gets pummeled?

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