Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Saturday chat: Phils' bats try to break Citi Field jinx | Main | Game chat: Phillies, Mets settle up in prime time »

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Comments

Whether they were cheap unearned runs or not, it felt great to finally score at Shiti Field this season. Doc and Wainwright look to be in a tight race for Cy Young, with Hundson and Jimenez in the mix too.

KK needs a bounce back performance today and secure another series win. Pelfrey is hittable. Let's do it!

Kind of interesting that the first run the Phils scored at that non-band-box was scored by Superm...errr...Halladay.

Interesting competition going on this year between NYM and FLA to see who gives up the most RSOE (Runs Scored on Errors). Amazin' Defense.

Without the errors, the cheapie turns into a classic 1-0 thriller.

Watching the SNY version, they did that bit again where they giggle how a ball hit in their park would have been a homer at CBP.

Of course, it was their guy who hit it, and it cost them a run in a game that was 1-0 at the time.

Don't see what's so funny about having your park steal runs from your side.

Also, referred to the boos for David Wright as 'negative reactions'.

New nickname for the fans that partially fill up Citifield...negativereactionbirds.

So, if we combine the SNY guys with our TV crew, the "negative reactions" means you are in the "bowwow palace"...

Last three games, pitchers each made valuable contributions at plate. Halladay scored first run last night, Hamels had ONLY hit on SFriday, and Blanton I belive had first RBI on Thursday (have to check that one)...

In any team's win win/loss column, there will be "cheap" wins and "cheap" loses.

The Phillies pitched well. They played solid defense. They won. The Mets pitched well, and played poor defense. They lost.

Do the fans of all teams feel a compulsive need to diminish their team's and player's (ex: sure, Howard produces RBI at historic rates, but he doesn't walk enough) accomplishments?

I wonder if the people who make so much about W-L records with starting pitchers have any complaints about Halladay, as he is "only" 15-8.

Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball.

I'd have to agree Jack, if you combine the innings he pitches and everything else he does he has to come out on top. Some other pitches may have lower ERAs but they just dont provide the full package Halladay does.

Jason says that Halladay was "sharper than in recent turns". 3 of Halladay's last 4 starts, he was actually quite sharp, wherein he went more than 7 innings in those 3 starts and gave up 1 ER or less. In 17 of his 25 starts this year, he's gone 7+ innings and given up 2 ER or less. (In one start, he went 6.1 and gave up 2). Basically, when Halladay takes the bump, you have a 72% chance he's going to pitch a great game. Halladay has had 5 bad starts, 3 of which he gave up 5 run and 2 of which he gave up 6 ER. Even in these bad starts, he's averaged 6.1 innings. The other two starts were "mediocre", one in which he gave up 3 run over 8, and one in which he gave up 4 runs over 8 IP. By the way, Cole Hamels has only given up 5+ ER this year only twice, and 4+ ER only 5 times (only twice since the beginning of May). While he hasn't been as consistently dominating like Roy, he's been one hell of a #2. Lastly, our "top 3" have given up 1 ER over their last 23 IP.

Lefthanded batters are hitting an amazing .330 against KK, that is, higher than any NL hitter with qualifying at bats. Teams that can load their lineups with good lefties tend to turn him into a batting practice pitcher. Of the Mets switch hitters, only Angel Pagan benefits from KK's inability to handle lefthanded hitters. This is more than offset by David Wright, who hits .360 against LHPs but only .265 against RHPs. So, I like the Phils chances providing they can get some runs. We can't count on the Mets to continue playing like little leaguers.

ML starters ths year and number of starts with 7+ IP and 2 or less ER:

Halladay: 17
Wainwright: 16
Hernandez: 15
Jimenez: 14
Weaver: 14
Lee: 13
Santana: 13
Carpenter: 12
Pavano: 12
Oswalt: 11
Johnson: 11
Lincecum: 11
Sabathia: 11
Liriano: 11
Hamels: 10
Hudson: 10
Cain: 10
Myers: 10

Jack: As you've noted many times before, a 15-8 record tells you absolutely nothing about a pitcher. Even though he has 15 wins in mid-August.

Keen observation.

How do the San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League on August 15?!

Hitman: Pagan's not the only Mets switch hitter who hits better from the right side. Castillo does too. But it's not like Reyes & Beltran are so bad from the left side that they can't hit a right-handed pitcher who yields a .330 average to opposing hitters. Plus, the Mets have several straight left-handers, including Ike Davis, Josh Tole, and some of their bench players. If they want, they can field a lineup of 7 left-handers plus Wright.

Kendrick HAS beaten some left-handed heavy teams this year, & there aren't many parks that are more pitcher-friendly than Citi Field. But I don't like the odds on this one at all. Considering that Pelfrey is better than Kendrick, and the Phillies have scored exactly 1 earned run in 5 games at this park, I like the odds even less.

RSB: This is just a wild stab, but I'd say the fact they lead the league in ERA, lowest H/9 and WHIP, are 2nd in K/9, lowest HR/9 and ERA+ and 3rd in least BB/9 has something to do with it.

Oh wait, good hitting beats good pitching. I forgot.

BAP: Pelfrey has faced the Phillies twice this season. He was crushed 10-0 at CBP and breezed to a 3-0 win at Citi.

Wainwright could make a pretty strong case for best pitcher in baeball too. And he has been truly amazing lately. In his last 9 starts, he has 6 games in which he yielded 0 runs, and 2 games in which he yielded just 1 run. Johnson & Jimenez could still make a run, but it looks like it's a 2-horse race for Cy Young. Wainwright's overall numbers are ever-so-slightly better than Halladay's, but here's one huge difference: in the same number of starts, Halladay has pitched 17 more innings than Wainwright.

bap: Sure, Pelfrey is better than KK, but by how much this year? The difference in ERA+ is 102-90... but before each of their last start it was much closer (KK got shelled and Pelfrey pitched well.

However, over each of their last 19 games, KK has an ERA of 3.94 vs. Pelfrey's ERA of 4.72. Lefties may be hitting .330 vs KK this year, but all batters over the last 19 starts are hitting .313 vs. Pelfrey (.269 vs. KK).

Pelfrey's WHIP over that time? 1.572. KK's WHIP over that time? 1.267.

I'm just sayin'... this year, Pelfrey hasn't been that much better than KK.

Bastardo got hammered. 2/3 inning,6 hits 4 runs.Think I'll try throwing left handed.

Clout: My point was that W-L record is obviously flawed when Halladay is 15-8 and Ubaldo Jimenez is 18-3, and you know that.

Who do you think is the better pitcher? If your life was on the line and you had to win a game, which pitcher would you want on the mound?

I know I'd want Doc, no matter what the W-L record says.

CJ: Pelfrey and KK are similar in that they are pitch-to-contact pitchers who live or die with their command.

KK's strike/ball ratio in his last start was 45/32. That's a recipe for disaster especially when the strikes he did throw were not quality strikes.

Jack: I'll take Roy over everyone. We just disagree on whether or not wins are meaningless.

Here's a little comparison of the NL Cy Young contenders using WAR and WPA.

WAR
Halladay 6.3
Johnson 5.6
Wainwright 4.7
Jimenez 4.3
Hudson 2.5

WPA
Halladay 4.88
Wainwright 3.80
Johnson 3.73
Hudson 3.65
Jimenez 3.60

jr: Antonio "Better than Hanson, The Next Santana" Bastardo is another pitcher who could benefit from improved control and command.

Padres have the best pen in baseball, and four average starters that pitch very well at home. Then they have Latos who has ridiculous strikeout stuff.

Fatalloti, your points are well taken, but Cole is only a #2 on this team becasue of the presence of Halladay.

He has pitched like a #1 this season, and would be on a lot of other teams.

But I don't like the odds on this one at all.

A shocking development.

KK has good career numbers vs. Mets (2-2 with a 3.34 ERA in 6 GS) but has only 1 start against them this year and none at CitiField.

Pelfrey though has dominated the Phils at CitiField the last 2 years - 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA in 4 GS including this season on May 27th (7 IP, 0 ER).

Pelfrey is 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA in 13 starts at home in 2010.

Phils face an uphill climb today. They need a really strong outing from KK (6-7 IP, 2 ER) to have a legit chance to win this game.

sophist: I often wondered what would happen if a GM focused his efforts on bullpen rather than rotation in building a team. If you had 6 of the best relievers in the league, could you win with 5 league-average starters?

I always believed the answer was Yes because you shortened the game so much. All you needed was a 3-runs-in-5-or-6-IP effort from your starters. If your offense was good enough to score 4, you win.

I'm happy with the Phillies and Halladay win, and the Mets errors leading to more runs. No complaints from me. I wouldn't want to offend any namby pamby BLer that doesn't like to read complaints.

clout, would be interesting to see the Padres run differential breakdown by inning. Might be tough to find those 6 RP every year given the variance in relief pitching.

A little trivia:

SDP pitching staff's home BAbip: .272

SDP pitching staff's away BAbap: .292


Have at it.

Mike Pelfrey:


At Bailout Park:

2009 17 GS, 3.72 ERA, 1.346 WHIP

2010: 13 GS, 3.14 ERA, 1.394 WHIP


Away:

2009: 14 GS, 6.72 ERA, 1.730 WHIP

2010: 10 GS, 5.11 ERA, 1.651 WHIP


A cursory look at these numbers seems to indicate that Pelfrey is a creature of his home ballpark, and is considerably below league average when he doesn't pitch in NY.

Quick aside:

Did you see that the Rangers new ownership LOWERED the price of ceratin concessions and merchandise?


Just sayin'.


awh: It's too bad we can't move tonight's game then, huh?

"...2nd in K/9..."

A day for miracles: clout referencing K/9 as a positive indicator. What is this world coming to? (Forget the haikus, I may need to generate another sonnet for this occasion!)

Jack, don't be silly. I pointed out that Pelfrey is very tough at home.

However, assuming this trend continues, any team looking to sign him as an FA in the future (Boras is his agent), ought to be very careful about what they are paying for.

Bobby Valentine has said that the Mets have the biggest homefield advantage of any club in MLB. Pelfrey's numbers seem to bear that out.

Also, these numbers seem to indicate that, maybe, just maybe, Pelfrey is really not THAT good a pitcher - at least nowhere near as good as the Met trolls and NY media like to think he is.

vs. Kendrick:
Josh Thole 3 PAs 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 Carlos Beltran 11 PAs .300 .364 .600 .964
Angel Pagan 10 PAs .333 .400 .556 .956
Jeff Francoeur 22 PAs .409 .409 .545 .955
Jose Reyes 16 PAs .357 .438 .429 .866
Mike Pelfrey 4 PAs .333 .333 .333 .667

More "good" news for K.O.Rod:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/KRod-apologizes-says-he-will-enter-anger-management-081410


Looks like he's gotta find new digs.

Padres have allowed 102 earned runs in the 7th inning or later including extras. Phils have allowed 158.

Is it too late to bring Brandon Duckworth up to pitch this game against the Mutts? I see little good coming from KK starting this game.

How's that for a reverse black cat?

If my life were on the line I'd probably try to figure a way out of the situation rather than worry about what happens in a baseball game.

Padres have the best pen in baseball, and four average starters that pitch very well at home.

Sophist - what are the comparative eras of the Padres and Phillies starters, 1-5?


Padres have allowed 102 earned runs in the 7th inning or later including extras. Phils have allowed 158.

So, the Padres have also allowed fewer runs in innings 1-6 (@ 40 more)?

SDP team batting:

2010 totals: .251 .322 .379 .701

2010 RISP: .275 .375 .414 .789


Sustainable?

More interesting Padres hitting factoids:

2010 Home: .258 .339 .380 .719

2010 Away: .244 .305 .378 .683


Anyone else find the above very surprising?

awh: I wasn't mocking your post. I was being kind of serious. Pelfrey sucks on the road but is good at home. So it sucks that we have to face him today at Citi, where he's a good pitcher despite not being great overall.

Flipper - were I going to compare the Padres starters to the Phils, I wouldn't compare their ERAs. Have you heard of Petco park?

Juan Castro starting at SS for the Dodgers today.

Pads SP ERA+ :

Latos 156
Garland 106
LeBlanc 103
Richard 95
Correia 74

Phils SP ERA+ :

Halladay 175
Hamels 157
Oswalt 151 in PhHI, 120 in HOU, 123 overall
Blanton 73
Kendrick 90

Would Cole Hamels be the Padres' #1?

Taken together the padres 2-5 is an average bunch. Maybe 2-4 are slighty above average but not much.

Looks like the Braves skipped Minor's start and went with Jurrjens today. I wish the Phillies would take note of that in the coming weeks.

Dukes: Didn't you hear? We've got a playoff spot locked up already, and can afford not to throw our best pitchers as much as possible.

Don't understand why earlier in the season Charlie was always pitching Halladay every 5th day, but now he isn't. If anything it should have been vice versa.

Andy: I love K/9 and I love power pitchers. But I don't make pronouncements about a required minimum K/9 to be successful. Only silly people who don't deserve to be taken seriously do that.

Stick to haikus.

Flipper - were I going to compare the Padres starters to the Phils, I wouldn't compare their ERAs. Have you heard of Petco park?

The same would apply to their relievers, then.

Adjust for parks as you will - but note that the Padres offense has better stats at home than on the road, and they've scored considerably more runs at home.

Although, point well-taken that their team ERA is far better at home than on the road, also note that their away ERA is considerably better than the Phillies' away ERA (I don't know how to compare the away ERA of the starters).

Obviously, the Phillies rotation at this point is significantly better than it was for the majority of the year.

How do the San Diego Padres have the best record in the National League on August 15?!

Posted by: RSB


RSB: Padres record against the NL

East: 16 - 15 (6-3 vs FLA)
Cent: 18 - 5 (6-0 vs PIT, 5-2 vs HOU)
West: 25 - 21 (8-2 vs SFG, 8-4 vs ARI)

Interlg: 9 - 6 (4-2 vs SEA)

Draw your own conclusions.

Watching Jurrjens...sure looks = to Kendrick to me...got to be kidding.

Juan Castro starting at SS for the Dodgers today.

It's as if Torre wants Atlanta to win the division. How much more plainly can he say it? Putting Juan Castro in as his starting pitcher?

Dukes: Nah, they're equal. In fact, the Phillies should be juggling the rotation to get Kendrick more starts, right?

"...don't make pronouncements about a required minimum K/9..."

That certainly would be a silly thing to do. I'll keep my eye out for someone doing that; maybe in the future there might be one.

I know I personally prefer to see how a pitcher is at getting people out, both righties and lefties. Given the realities of CBP and the hitting climates of most stadiums east of Texas or so, I'm also interested in seeing how many of their outs come from something other than line drives and fly balls.

But that's me. I know some people prefer pitchers who have BABIPs under .250 with RISP every few seasons. I understand that they think an Ideal Rotation would be filled with pitchers who have BABIPs with RISP nder .250 every three years.

Phillies record vs NL:

East: 22 - 21 (7-4 vs FLA)
Cent: 19 - 14 (2-4 vs PIT, 2-4 vs CHC)
West: 14 - 7 (4-2 vs ARI, 5-1 vs COL)

InetrLg: 10 - 8 (2-4 vs BOS, 3-0 vs CLE)

Jack - It might be a good idea to get more starts to the three pitchers best able to dominate opponents. I'm not sure that it's a dire enough emergency to begin that kind of rotation 2 games behind a team as hitting-challenged as the current ATL team, with Utley and Howard due to return with a month and a half to go. How many games do you really think it will take to catch the Braves at this point? How hard do you really think it will be?

BP postseason odds back up to 42.7 percent. Thanks, Doc.

aksmith - Torre loves veteran players as much as Cholly and he has always had this strange inclination to give useless vets (Luis Sojo comes right to mind) way too much playing time.

Torre's personality was a good fit for the NY/LA club but he is one of the weakest tacticians out there.

Flipper - the late innings comparison was only intended to provide some context for the Padres number. I didn't make an argument jut a comparison coming off the discussion clout and I were having.

As for the starters: by ERA+, SIERA, FIP and most metrics besides straight ERA the Padres have 3-4 average to slightly above average pitchers and Latos. That's pretty much a fact. But why not? If you play half your games in the biggest pitchers park in the majors, it would be a waste of resources finding high-priced Halladays and Oswalts.

Hamels would win a CY pitching for the Padres.

Braves up 2-0.

But otherwise I'm not sure why you find t necessary to compare them to the Phils. I said they had 4 average starting pitchers and one very good starting pitcher. I never compared them to the Phils and said one was better than the other. In any case, it's not a bad thing to construct your staff in that way, esp in that park. Having one excellent SP and 3-4 averagish SP gives you a very very above average rotation.

Andy = another poster underestimating the Braves. Guess what...the Braves get Prado back soon as well and he was only in the top 3 in hitting. And by the way, it's 4-0 Braves in the third. I think it's time to skip Blanton and KK a few times.

Phils have underachieved vs. NL East foes (22-21) but they have an 29 games remaining vs. NL East foes.

2009: 44-28
2008: 41-31
2007: 42-30
2006: 41-34
2005: 38-37

My bet is that the Phils will have to win at least 41 games vs. their divisional foes to take the division crown.

19-10 is doable but is going to be a stretch.

Personally, I hate this lopsided schedule where the Phils play divisonal foes 19 times a year. Get sick of seeing the same teams so much.

you can't skip blanton and kk "a few times". tomorrow is their last off day for 23 games. can't do it.

No. Can't skip them until after this stretch. IIRC phils have 6 days off after this run in the weeks final 5-6 weeks. One day off a week.

st: you're right, what i'm saying is that they should have done it over the last two weeks and they should do it when it comes up again in 23 days (which I think they will).

st: But you could've done it this week. KK lost his first start, Blanton frankly should've lost his, and we'll see what happens with KK tonight.

And Andy, I think it will come down to the last few games. It will be hard. Everyone keeps counting out the Braves, and they just keep winning, mostly because they have very good starting pitching and a very good bullpen. Believe it or not, that wins a lot of games.

nobody is counting them out. you have to outplay them. win more games. they aren't going to fold. their home record is too good

If Jurrjens recovers from his injury to be the guy he was last year that will be big for them. I think Phils catch them without much trouble if their only reliable guys are Hanson and Hudson.

Sophist - If Jurrjens is that guy, the Phils won't catch the Braves.

Braves home record too good?

Which means maybe they can't keep it going for a whole season.

There appears to be a lot of dog in this Dodgers team. Whatever Manny gave them, they certainly needed it. Maybe it was his WTF attitude. But they don't have it without him.

i'll think they'll catch them but it doesn't mean they'll stay there. they are only 2 games back so they can "catch" them rather easily but can they stay in 1st? i don't know about that

Remember the days when the Braves actually made deals at the deadline though that helped them?

Ankiel has a .154/.267/.205 in 39 ABs in 12 G and Farnsworth is 0-1 with a 12.27 ERA in 3.2 IP in 5 G.

MG, not if they continue to score less than 4 runs per game as they hve been for the last month or so. I mean, you can play significantly over .500 with little offense but is bet against it.

It really doesn't matter though. Unless the Braves collapse or the Phils continue to play .750+ baseball it'll come down to the head to head games. That's the most likely scenario.

Catch them rather easily? You are aware that the Phillies are pitching Kendrick today and Blanton and Kendrick every five days? Right?

What about that says the Phillies will "catch" the Braves, who continue to throw good pitching out there every day and a better pen.

because it's only 2 games man. they can have a bad series and we have a good one and it's tied. but that's besides the point. it doesn't matter if we catch them. it's who ends the season there

i agree with sophist anyway. it'll come down to head to head

"You are aware that the Phillies are pitching Kendrick today and Blanton and Kendrick every five days? Right?"

Doesn't every team have a fourth and fifth starter? And don't the Phils have a better 1-3?

The Braves are also getting dinged up right when the Phils are do for a cavalry charge. It's the right time for a rush of optimism.

Aksmith - in Kendrick's last 19 games he has a 3.94 ERA and the Phils are 12-7.

AKsmith - finally a guy with some realism.

i guess you take out the factor that we are about to get utley and howard back in two days? i mean, that helps yes?

When Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt start, I expect the Phillies to win, when Blanton and Kendricks start I expect them to lose. If the latter two pitch well I am as delighted as a guy who finds a $50 bill on the street.

This way the only time my sphincter tightens watching the team is when the Phillies don't hit for Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt. Even then, as Friday's game showed, I get to watch good pitching.


Life is good, especially in the latter innings when you have a medical marijuana card.

The Braves terrible offense is up 8-0.

2 run shot by Cairo. Reds up 2-0.

Phils' record:

Halladay: 16-9
Hamels: 13-11
KK: 13-9
Blanton: 9-10

The issue all year has been Blanton. If not for that miraculous comeback, they would be 8-11 in his 19 GS largely because he has been of the worst starters in the NL.

Braves down 8-0 is making it very hard for me to ignore the fact that I should get some work done.

Alex: Are you suggesting the Braves offense isn't terrible because they managed 8 runs so far today?

Why is everyone assuming that getting Utley and Howard back will lead to a cavalry charge? The Phillies have been winning more games without them. I know that's not a direct correlation, but given that they will both need to get situated again and they haven't been playing under major league game conditions for a while, they are going to need to adjust most likely. I don't look for them to light up the scoreboard right away.

And Kendrick's very good numbers up until now mean he's likely to regress to the mean, no? He is not a season long sub 4.00 ERA pitcher by any means. He is simply not good enough. He is a major league fifth starter and in that role he's fine. But he is not likely going to give them down the stretch what he has given them over that cherry picked last 19 game sample. In fact, he never has before. Why should he now?

I am not one to bash Kendrick in general. But when you are on the heels of a team that does not seem predisposed to lose much, it's tough to march Kendrick and Blanton out there two out of five games and cross your fingers that they don't suck much.

With their pitching they rarely ever need 8 runs. Just don't see them losing many home games and they have a very easy road schedule left.

The comments to this entry are closed.

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG