Sunday chat: Phillies hope bats catch fire for finale

The returns of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard haven’t ignited the Phillies’ offense, which has scored just four runs in their last three games. They’ll try to get it going today against familiar lefty and noted smackass Scott Olsen (3-5, 5.14) today at 1:35 with rain threatening. Chase Utley has been scratched for Wilson Valdez against the left-hander.

Beerleaguer: Roy Oswalt (8-13, 3.36), who has been sharp in two home starts, tries to offset a poor start by Kyle Kendrick in yesterday’s 8-1 loss. Kendrick, who has been brutal in two of his last three outings, allowed five runs on nine hits and four walks in 5 2-3. The good news is that the rotation’s weakest links (Kendrick, Joe Blanton) are sandwiched in between Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Oswalt. Plus, if you compare them with other bottom-of-the-rotation starters around the league, they aren’t half bad; Blanton is right around a 4 ERA in his last five starts. The bad news is that Kendrick looks like he’s beginning to lose confidence the way we’ve seen before. The Phillies really don’t have any other options if he doesn’t pick it up. ... Offensively, the small ball stuff has stalled in recent days. Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez have cooled, and Utley, who gets the day off today, has been nothing great. Personally, I’m jonesing for the Phils to club a team to death using the long ball. Today would be a great day for Howard's welcome back party.

Lineups are posted: Rollins SS, Ibanez LF, Polanco 3B, Howard 1B, Werth RF, Victorino CF, Ruiz C, Valdez 2B. [Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[Alex]

Though JC looked good I'm not sure how much you can take out of it. The Nats wanted to get out of town at that point.

[AFish]

When JC looked bad, he couldn't throw a strike. I think his performance the last two days is very encouraging.

[MG]

"These guys get paid the big bucks to pitch so pitch they should. At least they are looking good. Gotta keep 'em sharp for the stretch run."

This makes little sense. Madson is on pace to pitch and pitch alot this month (already at 13 G and 12 1/3 IP with more than a week left in the month). Probably ends appearing in 17-18 G and pitching around 18 IP. It would be the most he pitched in a month since July '07.

Generally I don't mind when Cholly has used him though up 4 runs lately because he doesn't have alot of other great options, this team does need to win games when they are ahead, and I don't have 100% in Lidge either.

[MG]

Alex - Yeah. JC is going to be a crapshoot just about every time out there the rest of the year I bet.

[Alex]

There is also less pressure on JC in low leverage situations where he is up 6 and just throw it. When there are runners on base in a close game that is when he always nibbles and there are constant 3 ball counts.

[CJ]

"Though JC looked good I'm not sure how much you can take out of it. The Nats wanted to get out of town at that point."

Beerleaguer at its finest. When a player on the Phils succeeds, it's only because the other team has given it to them. When the Phils win, it's only because of something bad the other team has done.

I love this place!

[CJ]

I hate to break up the "let's talk about how bad our players are" session, but just wanted to point out that the Phils have now won 6 series in a row and 7 out of 8 including two sweeps.

Second-half Phils baseball... just what we've come to expect.

[gobaystars!]

Both sides get paid and someone has to lose, so what gives?

[Bruce Ruffin]

CJ -- And the Braves keep rolling on. I really wish the Phil's overall fine play in the last week would allow us to make up just 1 game in the loss column...

[MG]

Romero:

Low leverage: 82 PA, 13 BBs
Medium leverage: 17 PA, 4 BBs
High leverage: 31 PA, 6 BBs

Alex I would have to dig into the numbers move but Romero seems to be pretty wild regardless of what situation is in. Have to be to the BB/9 he does (7.6).

[CJ]

Bruce: 6 games left with the Braves. I don't care what they do, as long as the Phils continue to win every series, things will work out just fine.

[gobaystars!]

Does what a player is paid influence what they are physically capable of doing? If the Phillies gave me $12 million a year would I hit .340? If they gave me $2 mill would I hit .260? At $7mill could I pitch out of the pen daily, but at $1 mill would I need more days off?

[BloodStripes]

MG, I appreciate your opinion. You make a valid point. As long as the Phils win I'm happy. If anyone was to be rested today it should have been Madson. At least it only took him 9 pitches for the inning.

After two straight WS appearances UC is still untrusted and continually gets ripped. I'm with CJ. Love this place. Hard to find a blog with more passion.

[Bruce Ruffin]

CJ -- I have this ongoing delusion that the Phils will rip off 18 of the next 20 and spend the last 2 weeks setting the rotation for the playoffs. I'm a real boring poster, as I have a tough time diverging from this fantasy, but this team has the pitching to get that done (except for a very wobbly RHP who should be nicknamed "K-Square[ed]").

Damn, I'm still steamed over last night. We should have beaten the Stratsburgless Gnats like a drum. Thanks for nothing, K-Square.

[CJ]

Bruce: KK pitched a bad game... but it's not like he got any support either. That was a team loss. I mean, it's not like he was going to pitch a shutout.

[Old Phan]

Bruce, for your health, you should let last night go. The Phils won today. Dwell on that at least until tomorrow.

[Fatalotti]

Old Phan with the BL counseling; I like it. My uncle told me last year, even in their best years, the Phils are going to lose between 65 and 70 games. No need to get too bent out of shape over one of them. On a more positive note, the Phils are one of 4 teams in the NL with 70+ wins. This team just finds ways to get it done.

[MG]

BloodStripes - I don't think Cholly is 'untrusted' just as there are a fair amount of posters on here who question some of strategic moves. That's all. It happens with every manager to some degree.

For example, is Cholly going to start Ibanez this week vs. Happ/Rodriquez.

Phils though have done exactly what they needed to which is win a fair amount on this homestand and win series. 4-2 so far on this 10-G homestand and now have won 6 straight series and 8 of 11 since ASB.

[Scott]

Think the Dodgers will start Barajas against us?

[Bruce Ruffin]

Phan -- Good point. Time to chill. I can't remember ever being so upset over 1 bad ballgame from a 5th starter. Obviously, blowing up every 3rd game or so is what 5th starters’ do.

Regardless, I sure hope this is not a 2009-vintage K-Square "death spiral". We need the good KK every time out until season's end.

[bay_area_phan]

Funny that, around this time last month, there was quite a bit of consternation on this blog about giving up Happ to get Oswalt.

[MG]

Call me crazy but I have a feeling this Astros series is going to be a little tougher than people think even though the Astros don't have a ton of talent right now. See a split but we'll see.

[Bruce Ruffin]

bap -- That would be me. Trust me, I'm over it!

[Fatalotti]

Scott, I'd be surprised if Torre doesn't try to pull a fast one and put Barajas in the lineup twice., with the way he rakes us.

[Scott]

I'm sure Meathead Myers would love to knock us off tomorrow...

[bay_area_phan]

Bruce: You definitely had company.

[CJ]

MG: I'm shocked... shocked to see such pessimism out of you. You're generally such a beacon of light on this blog.

[MG]

CJ - Not just a 'rah-rah' cheerleader type. Sticking by what I said at the ASB - Phils will make the playoffs but won't quite catch the Braves.

As for giving credit today - Cholly deserves it for going with Valdez. Utley hasn't looked great at the plate at all this week, doesn't have particularly strong numbers vs. Olsen, and it was a day game/night game without another day off for a few week.

It wasn't the worst idea to sit him for Valdez today.

Valdez played his normal solid defense and contributed with a huge 2-out RBI hit in the 7th which really cracked out the game.

[CJ]

MG: I was only referring to your sunny view of the upcoming series with the Astros. I couldn't care less about your criticisms of Charlie's managerial decisions. They've been the same over and over again for the last three years. I doubt Charlie is listening.

[MG]

CJ - Yeah a split is really being that pessimistic.

What is alos just as amusing is how you give Cholly a free pass regardless of what happens or occurs. If the Phils win, any criticism of Cholly is null and void. If they lose, it is players.

[passinthru]

I still donot understand the logic in keeping baez and cutting figgy... ( i know why, but it's still illogical)

[passinthru]

how many new impact players have the giants gotten in the past 40 days? braves? dodgers? phils?

SF has almost built a whole new team..

[Fatalotti]

Dman, you have to feel good for Jim Thome. He's on a great team and has a very good chance to make the playoffs this year and make some noise. And he's still playing very well.

[awh]

22 - 7 since 7/22. The best record in MLB.

[Marc]

I don't usually post, but the last few days I read so much here about the Phils not catching the Braves for the NL East with 40 games left.

From what I see the Braves have needed 22 last-at-bat wins to be just 2.5 games ahead of the Phils. Yes, the Braves know how to win, but I just don't see that kind of magic lasting through Sept. Add in the Phils have had some valuable guys on the DL for long stretches and if I was a Braves fan I would be really concerned. They should be up by 8 games with that combination of events.

The Phils win the NL East by 3 games.

[Jack]

Marc: True, but the Braves just added Derrek Lee, which should boost their offense, and Heyward went 4-4 today with 2 HRs. If he gets back to his early-season form, they could start scoring a lot more runs.

Regardless, as long as we keep winning, we should make the playoffs no matter what. It seems likely that both the Braves and Phillies will make the playoffs, with the division winner being decided by the last couple head-to-head series.

[CJ]

Marc: I pretty much agree with everything you said. As fortunate as the Braves have been this year... and as relatively healthy (at least before Chipper) as they've been, they can't be satisfied with being up just 2 in the loss column. I'm not sure the last series of the season is going to end up mattering.

[CJ]

Jack: We'll see what boost Lee provides. He's got a 92 OPS+ this season and is 1 for his first 11 ABs in Atlanta. He's having a bad year... just not as bad as Glaus was hitting the last 3 months. It's possible he provides a small boost (hard not too as worthless as Glaus had become), but Lee would have to completely turn things around to make a big impact.

[Jack]

Also, the Braves have quite the easy schedule in September. So do the Phillies, but my point is that it's likely that both teams simply keep winning. I don't foresee the Braves suddenly going cold and losing a bunch of games.

All they really have to do is play a couple games over .500 (against an easy schedule), and the pressure is on us. They have 38 games left and we have 39, and they have a 2.5 game lead. If they go 20-18, we'd have to go 26-13 to beat them by 3 games. It's unlikely the latter happens, and it's also highly likely the Braves finish better than 20-18, even if we beat them in the head-to-head series.

[CJ]

MG: Every manager makes his fair share of miscalculations, but I find it rather pointless to dwell on each every one of them. That's something many on Beerleaguer excel at. I think results over the long term tell us a lot more about a manager. Forgive me for giving the guy credit for an unprecedented level of success for a Phillies team.

[CJ]

Jack: We have 6 games against the Braves. That's all that matters.

[Jack]

CJ: Lee also has a .934 OPS in August, and had a 145 OPS+ last year. Considering people were holding onto hope that Raul would have a hot streak given his track record, at age 38 (and that he did, at least for a little while there), I find it odd to believe that you would think Lee is washed up at age 34. The guy can hit, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him hit well down the stretch for them.

If you think the last series won't matter, where do you see the Phils taking the lead? We have an advantage early this week, when we play the Astros at home while they play at Colorado. But then we have to play at San Diego while they play at home against the Fish. Those even out. Then all the NL East teams pretty much rotate against each other in September. Both our schedules are pretty easy from here on in, which is why I find it hard to believe we'd be able to make up 6 games on them in 35 game, which is what it would take for the last series not to matter. That's really hard to do.

[CJ]

Roy Halladay has allowed 0 or 1 ER in 6 of his last 7 starts.

Cole Hamels has allowed 0 or 1 ER in 5 of his last 8 starts.

Roy Oswalt has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 of his 5 starts as a Phillie.

Should be great to see how they do down the stretch.

[Jack]

CJ: So you expect us to go 5-1 or 6-0 against the Braves? Fair enough, but I'm not sure I'd bet a lot on that.

They have a 2.5 game lead. Let's say we win tomorrow night and it's 2 games with 38 to play each. If "all that matters" is the Braves games, we'd have to go 5-1 or 6-0 to win the division. I think that's more unlikely than it is likely.

And you're confusing me, too. You say you're not sure the last series is even going to matter. But then you say we have 6 games against the Braves, and that's all that matters.

[Jack]

CJ: Agreed on the starting pitching. Those top 3 guys are fantastic, and we need those sorts of performances to continue to make a deep run.

[CJ]

Jack: I'm not going to play the win-loss prediction game every day. I believe this team, now healthy, with Oswalt in the rotation, will overtake the Braves in the next couple weeks. I'm sure a lot of people were surprised that we got from 7 games in the loss column to 2 games in the loss column as quickly as we did. But it happened.

[awh]

I don't understand why people are so upset wwith KK yesterday. I didn't expeted a loss. Why? Becaus I actually looked at his track recrd vs the Nats. I posted those number here too, so no regular reader/poster should have been surprised either.

[awh]

That should say "I expected a loss".

[MG]

CJ - Its not that. It is more than whenever anybody expresses a negative thought/criticism, you jump over them. Hell, you did that I said I thought the Astros was going be a tougher series (Myers deserve to pitch well, two LHP starters, KK going) than people think and that they might split. Yet that makes me a pessimistic and a 'doom-and-gloomer?'

When I think Cholly deserves credit, I will definitely credit him. Valdez starting today was a good example. Didn't mind seeing him out there were enough good reasons to support it than 'just a hunch.'

Yes I do harp on how Cholly uses his bullpen and pitching decisions probably more than justified. I just think it is hands-down his weakest attribute as a manager. Doesn't mean I harp on every decision he makes. Probably 90% of it doesn't make a real difference. Just wish he would use his better relievers when it really matters and try to have them available as much as possible.

All, it doesn't hurt to pitch you lesser relievers every now and then to have enough work so that they can stay semi-effective and you can save som low leverage wear & down on your vital pieces. Asking alot of guy like Baez or Herndon to even be semi-effective if they only pitch once every 7-10 days.

Same with your bench guys. Hopefully Francisco starts this week against Happ/Rodriquez. I doubt it happens though and that Ibanez probably starts at least 1 game/if not both of them.

[Fatalotti]

Oswalt as Phillie has a 2.64 ERA. If we excuse him his first start against the Nat'ls, in which he admitted he was amped up, and had just arrived off a flight from Houston not long before game time, he has a 1.64 ERA with a 3.57 K/BB ratio, a 0.95 WHIP and he's gone 7 innings in 3 of those 4 starts. He's known as an August and September pitcher, and the returns are proving to be true so far. His season ERA is down to 3.22. Glad he's on our side now.

[Fatalotti]

Also, watching Oswalt's highlights today (and also those over the year), he may throw the best high and inside tailing fastball in the business. He got at least 3 strikeouts today on that pitch, and even if a guy gets wood on it, they're breaking their bat.

[MG]

Fatalotti - Yeah. Happ has given has the Astros 3 decent starts after he got lite up in his debut but Oswalt has clearly been better.

My bet is that he outpitches Happ the rest of the season and next year too by enough to have made it a worthwhile deal.

[Fatalotti]

I agree MG. I also think we haven't seen the best of Oswalt yet. He had dead arm issues against the Fish, had a lousy first innings against the Giants, and had a zillion balls batted foul today. Through all that, his numbers above are still magnficent. I can't wait to see him have a truly dominating start, because he definitely has the stuff to grind through a start.

[MG]

Fatalotti - I would much rather see Oswalt too in a Game 3 in the playoffs than Happ/Blanton. That is the biggest difference between this year and last. Phils have 3 starting pitchers who will match up respectively against anyone they will potentially face in a playoff matchup.

[phlipper]

MG - I'm still waiting for you to give an example of when this year Charlie was unable to use a reliever in a key situation because that reliever had been used the night before.

You harp on Charlie's overuse of relievers almost nightly, but as far as I can remember, there has yet to be a situation this year when it has affected a game.

[Sophist]

Phils just need to keep winning series.

Pitching match-ups this week are interesting, even against some of the weaker teams.

PHI .......... ATL

Blanton v Myers .................. Hudson v Hammel
Hamels v Norris ................... Lowe v De La Rosa
Halladay v Happ ..................... Jurrjens v Rogers
Kendrick v Rodriguez ........ Hanson v Volstad

Oswalt v Latos ................. Minor v Nolasco
Blanton v Garland ................. Hudson v Johnson
Hamels v Richard ............... ATL v NYM

Phils get two of the Astros better pitchers in Myers and Wandy R. lined up with Blanton and Kendrick.

Braves do not draw anyone with an intimidating season in Colorado, so let's hope for some wild games in Denver. Braves do get some tough match-ups in Florida, however (Marlins had a 5 game win streak snapped today), while the Phils go out to San Diego and are currently lined up for Latos v Oswalt in game 1.

Is it oversimplifying things to say that these 4 series show the difference between competition in the East, West, and Central? Rockies and Marlins are tough teams with power and some good arms (Rockies pen and Marlins SP). Houston has some starters with solid seasons (Wandy and Myers), but they aren't world beaters and the team has nothing else to speak of.

[Sophist]

But I also completely expect the Wandy v Kendrick game to go the Astros way.

[king myno]

I bet we lose to Latos and Myers and win the rest, and the Braves go 4-3. It's gonna be a slow climb to the top, if we even get there.

[Indiana Sarge]

Sophist: Nolasco is missing his next start with a torn meniscus.

[Sophist]

Houston is 18-6 against the Pirates and Cubs this year. They're 36-66 against everyone else, though they are 7-5 against the Cards.

Myers has pitched much better at home this year (2.23 ERA / 3.96 ERA), but he has a 2.26 ERA in his last 9 starts (63.2 IP). Only one strong offense in that bunch though (SD, STL, CHC, PIT, NYM, MIL). He gave up 4 runs to MIL in 6 IP, and his start previous to that stretch he gave up 7 R to MIL in 6 IP.

Talk about a tale of two teams: Colorado

Home: 38-20, 335 RS / 262 RA
Away: 24-40, 230 RS / 272 RA

They've both pitched better and hit better at home. The RS is a laughable difference.

[denny b.]

Sophist,

Latos is pitching Wednesday.

Phils will miss him.

[Sophist]

Thanks, Indiana. I was just going by the ESPN schedule/probables. Looks like he might make it.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/22/1787649/injured-nolasco-still-might-make.html

May not be as effective either way. Too bad for the Phils, though, since he has some excellent stuff (8.5 K9, 1.7 BB9 this year).

[Sophist]

denny, ESPN has LeBlanc on Wednesday and Latos Friday.

According to this article what I posted above is correct.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100822&content_id=13779658&notebook_id=13779662&vkey=notebook_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Fatalotti]

If David Murphy is correct in his pitching rotation for the Phillies the remainder of the season, then it would be great to get Halladay/Oswalt/Hamels in every game against the Braves. But, one thing I noticed is that Kendrick would then be pitching in every Nationals series, and he has just been smacked around by the Nationals this year (12.71 ERA over 11.1 IP). I understand that getting your best starters going against the Braves is important, but I hate the idea that, outside of a Phillies offensive explosion, the Phils will probably lose the games Kendrick starts against the Nationals.

[Old Phan]

Perhaps the Phils might score some runs for KK in those games.and it won't be an automatic loss.

[TNA]

If the Phillies really need wins down the stretch, I wouldn't be shocked if Manuel/Dubee pulled a Sabathia and started running Halladay out there every 4th game. My concern is that Halladay has never pitched in the post-season and his arm may not be used to going the extra month in October. But then again, Halladay IS the most interesting man in the world and no experience is too big or too much for him.

[NEPP]

We're leading in the Wild Card right now...as long as we keep doing that, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to play any of our top three pitchers on short rest. That could really bite us in the arse in the playoffs (kinda like Sabathia being burnt out by the time he played us in 08)

[Fatalotti]

Old Phan, I don't count them as automatic losses, but the only start we've won with kendrick on the mound against the nationals, we had to scored 14 runs. Can we still win the two games that KK will start against the Nats? Yes. If we keeps pitching like he has against the Nats (12.71 ERA), it's hard not to imagine that we'll be at a severe disadvantage.

[awh]

Why will the Phillies be fine the rest of the way?

Maybe this will tell:

Phillies starters over their last 7 starts:

Halladay, 2.08 ERA, .226 .260 .318
Hamels, 2.87 ERA, .223 .277 .377
Oswalt, 3.61 ERA, 263 .312 .425
...(with PHI) 2.43 ERA, .217 .280 .342
Blanton, 4.00 ERA, .289 .335 .382
Kendrick, 4.95 ERA, .304 .358 .500

If the top 4 continue to pitch as well as they have since the beginning of August, it's possible that they can afford a "Good" Kyle - "Bad" Kyle every other start.

[EastFallowfield]

Roy Oswalt says he loves pitching off the mound at CBP. Remember when pitchers were scared to pitch there?

[awh]

Fatalotti, as I mentioned above, I posted KK's numbers against the Nats BEFORE he took the mound Saturday.

KK has historically STUNK against the Nats. Saturday merely continued a trend. I don't know what he can do to reverse the trend (maybe change his approach and throw nothing but offspeed and breaking balls :) ? ) but he hasn't been successful against them.

The good news seems to be that KK is scheduled to take the hill against the Astros on Thursday at home instead of Minute Maid Park. He stunk the joint up in Houston, so maybe there's hope. Also, he misses the Pads at Petco, where he's also been abysmal.

[awh]

Right now, Oswalt is scheduled to face off against Latos on Friday in Petco.

Oswalt career at Petco:

4 GS, 2.06 ERA, .224 .291 .315

[awh]

yo, new thread,