Sunday chat: Cole closes up shop in San Diego

Seeking his first win in nine tries, Cole Hamels (7-10, 3.47) has the ball in his hometown this afternoon against lefty Clayton Richard (12-5, 3.55) and the Padres. First pitch is 4:10 ET.

Hamels: Hamels’ telltale 7-10 mark defines this season as well as any statistic. His annoying, unsupportive offense has bled out just 12 runs over his last eight starts, leaving the ace left-hander with three losses and five no-decisions over that stretch. The Phils can’t possibly ask for anything more from Hamels, whose 170 strikeouts ranks fifth in the league. Opposing lefties are batting just .175 against him.

Blanton: Fortunately, three hits, a pair of Shane Victorino RBIs and a run on a fielder’s choice was more than enough in the Phillies’ 3-1 win on Saturday afternoon. That allowed second-half revelation Joe Blanton to even his record to 6-6. Blanton’s 3.41 ERA in nine starts since the All-Star break has arguably been the Phillies’ best storyline over the last week if you had to pick one. Jose Contreras, Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge combined for three perfect relief innings; aside from Lidge’s debacle the other night, the bullpen has also gelled lately.

Offense: In the meantime, it’s been a whole lot of nothing for the Phillies’ offense. Collectively, they’re hitting just .199/.278/.284 over their last 10 games.

Standings: The Phillies trail Atlanta by two games in the division and lead the Wild Card by 1.5. Derek Lowe and the Braves take on Josh Johnson and the Marlins today in Atlanta. Matt Cain and the Giants host Rodrigo Lopez and the Diamondbacks at 4:10 ET.

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Comments

[MG]

One last thing:

Can Cholly please make it an unofficial platoon in LF the rest of the way with Francisco starting vs. LHP starting on Wed vs. Kershaw.

[bay_area_phan]

MG: Unless Ibanez starts raking again, I support a platoon also. Unfortunately, Francisco isn't really a great platoon option, since he's essentially the same average hitter against right-handers as against left-handers. There's not much we can do about that for 2010. But, since a left field platoon is probably what we're headed for in 2011, it wouldn't be a bad idea to consider trading Francisco in the off-season & acquiring a more dynamic right-handed bat. Someone like Cody Ross, for example.

[MG]

BAP - I would might seeing that. Your right that Francisco is just an average hitter from both sides of the plate but that is alot better than what Ibanez has done vs. LHP (including today):

.236/.282/.371 in 144 ABs

Francisco is .260/.329/.481 in 77 ABs last year and .247/.351/.392 in 97 Abs last year.

[jason.tp]

offtopic: Watching MLB Network, showing video of Aroldis Chapman striking out a guy on three fastballs: 103, 105, and 104mph.

[denny b.]

Worley pitched very well for LV tonight.

Ran out of gas in the 7th inning, but until then, was very strong. Got some strikeouts and a bunch of groundballs.

He seems to be about a 95-100 pitch a game guy right now. Much like Blanton (when he gets above 80 pitches), Worley loses it quick when gets around 100 pitches.

Dobbs now batting .146 for the season at LV. I think its pretty safe to say, he is done. Even with regular playing time against AAA pitchers, he can't hit.

[PhxPhilly]

MG,
Good point about Blanton and Lidge. I agree they seemed to be important pieces for the Phillies to keep pace with the playoff teams. Now if Romero, Utley, and Howard can get hot the Phillies will be even more dangerous.

[st]

why don't you just wait and see if the madson thing actually happens. can you predict the future or something? jesus

[PhxPhilly]

Braves are just playing great. To beat Johnson after being down 6-1. Yes, they beat the 'pen but they got Johnson out of the game and capitalized on mistakes.

[EastFallowfield]

When we capitalize on mistakes, we're either lucky or fortunate, not playing great.

[Old Phan]

Didn't the Braves just get swept by the Rox? They aren't playing that well, it's just that the Phils weren't playing well enough to catch up. And it is taking nothing away from the Braves to say that today the Fish handed them the game today.

[Sophist]

According to ESPN.com Manny won't be a Dodger for much longer.

[Sophist]

Ibanez has been hitting well of late overall (8 games before today), but you have to think the way Manuel keeps running him out there against LHP despite his overall numbers says more about his faith in Francisco than anything about Ibanez.

[EastFallowfield]

Heath Bell:

"We look up in the stands and there's a sea of red, it would be nice to see some blue or brown shirts. I guess Padres fans aren't ready to show up yet."

[Sophist]

Remaining schedules (6 playoff contenders: Reds, Cards, Giants, Padres, Braves, Phils):

Reds: 6 against playoff contenders, 4 against COL
Cards: 11 against playoff contenders, 4 against COL

Giants: 7 against playoff contenders, 6 against COL
Padres: 14 against playoff contenders, 6 against COL

Braves: 10 against playoff contenders
Phils: 6 against playoff contenders, 1 against COL

How well they play the division will play a much bigger role, but the Phils sweep of the Padres puts the ball in the Braves court for their 4 against the Cards.

[Sophist]

Giants have a legit chance to catch the Padres. All 7 of the Giants games against solid playoff teams are against the Padres and otherwise they face their division and some soft games against the NL central (Cubs, Brewers).

[Rob in NC]

The Braves have a horseshoe up their arse. At some point it has to stop. They way they win is not a formula for success. When will it stop?

[Sophist]

Rob, Braves just recently lost 4 in a row. If the Phils had simply split with the Astros, they'd be in a tie for first. Who knows what will happen.

[Heather]

'Heath Bell:

"We look up in the stands and there's a sea of red, it would be nice to see some blue or brown shirts. I guess Padres fans aren't ready to show up yet."
'

Tell Heath if he wants to sign for peanuts with the Phils next year, he can see a sea of red wherever he goes, all rooting for him.

[AFish]

I've got no problem with holding back one non-Valdez RH pinching hitter. Otherwise, you're really vulnerable to a LOGGY in the late innings.

[CJ]

PhxPhilly: They didn't exactly get Johnson out of the game, the manager decided 103 pitches was too much, I guess. I assume had the game been closer, they'd have left Johnson in. He hadn't even given up an earned run and had struck out 8 in 6 innings. I suppose you could say they worked counts...

[EastFallowfield]

The way the Phils played the Giants and Padres vs the Astros, maybe it'd be better if all their games were against contenders.

[Heather]

Anybody know where I can see a clip of the Sweeney homerun? MLB.com does not have one for some reason.

[Malcolm]

MLB.com has the Sweeney home run. It's right here: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11519669

[Rob in NC]

Sophist,
Of course we missed an opportunity when playing the Astros. But the Braves have been lucky beyond belief.

[Sophist]

Rob, I'm just saying that, to some extent, it did "stop" for the Braves recently. It's just that the Phils decided to get swept by an inferior team coincidently.

[Heather]

Thanks malcolm, must not have seen it before.

[goody]

denny: You mentioned Worley pitching tonite. If he is the most likely starter for the DH on Labor Day, he will be well rested. Anyone think the Phils will be too cheap to fly anyone to LA FOR 1 game, and not call anyone up till they get home?

[CJ]

With Wainright's bad start, Halladay is back on top of the NL in ERA. He also leads the league in Ks and is just 1 win behind in that category. The pitching triple crown is certainly within reach.

He also leads the league in IP, CG and SHO. He also has the fewest walks allowed of any pitcher with at least 120 IPs.

His K/BB ratio is 7.44. Second in the league was Dan Haren before being dealt with 4.86. He also averages the fewest pitches per inning of any pitcher with at least 120 IPs.

Wow.

[gobaystars!]

This late in the season luck has evened out and everyone is what their record says they are.

[FM]

Disgusting to see the big smile on the umps's face signalling home run after the confab ending Braves/Fish game. Wish the league would address the growing amount ofunprofessional behavior these guys are exhibiting this year

[CJ]

gobaystars!: "This late in the season luck has evened out and everyone is what their record says they are."

Tell that to the 17 Phillies on the DL. Seems like only the Red Sox can match the Phils bad luck so far on the injury front.

Not to mention, the Phils have played a harder schedule than the Braves so far... that won't even out until the end of the season.

[Jim]

The Braves have been lucky, but if the Phils don't win the division or don't get in via the Wild Card they can only blame themselves.

[CJ]

Jim: "The Braves have been lucky, but if the Phils don't win the division or don't get in via the Wild Card they can only blame themselves."

Exactly. This team has endured a great deal to be where they are, but they are the better team and there are 6 games left between the Phils and the Braves.

[gobaystars!]

Sure, the Phillies have had a bad year for injuries but it is just part of the game. The Phillies have done very wel,l all things considered. I think at full strength they are a much better team than the braves, and I trust the Phillies to catch the braves. All I'm saying is I don't buy that the braves are playing over their heads or anything like that. When it does come to the last day of the season, luck or no luck, you've got to live with what the record says.

[Jim]

@CJ......I agree as we head down the stretch that on paper the Phillies are the better team, the only advantage is that the Braves probably have a better bullpen.

I am proud of this team as frustrating as it has been to watch from time to time, they keep bouncing back everytime they look like there about ready to lay down.

The Braves do seem to look like one of those charmed teams where everything seems to be going right for them, but the more and more pressure the Phils can put on them they will eventually start to feel it.

Biggest thing for the Phils, there not the offensive team they have been in the past, I am fine with winning with pitching and defense, but if the Big Piece can have his typical September that will be what puts us over the top!

[Jim]

@gobaystars

I do agree the Braves have pulled a few games out of there asses lately, but they deserve to be where they are, they are a very good team that is having a very good year.

But I also think that this is for the Phillies to take!

[phlipper]

And BAP doubted my prediction that the offense would have a break out game.

5 whole runs. An offensive juggernaut. I mean the Pads did commit 4 errors, sure, but it's not like that helped the Phillies score all those runs.

[Jim]

I wouldn't call it a breakout game, but it was a positive first step......

And for all the Charlie bashing that goes on here, he deserves alot of credit for sticking with Shane yesterday and going with Sweeney today.......I love how people love to bash the guy when he makes a mistake, but don't want to give him credit when he made 2 moves in the past two days that lead to thest last two wins.

[phlipper]

MG - can you come up with one example all year where Charlie was unable to use one of his better relievers because the reliever had been used in a game the previous night when the Phils had a big lead?

One?

It is theoretically possible that such a move could come back and burn Charlie, but how likely is it? Can you think of one time when it happened? On the other hand, we can be pretty certain that there have been a number of occasions where bringing in a lesser reliever would have resulted in putting the game into jeopardy (or perhaps, resulted in a loss).

[Jim]

The Phillies bullpen is low on the IP's category versus there competitors...

Now that is mostly due to the work of the starters, but for example today.......do you want to bring herndon in and have him get you in a jam, and have Lidge or Madson have to get out of it.....I am fine with him using Madson today in a 5 run game......like I said people love to jump on the managers back for every little thing.

[bay_area_phan]

phlipper: I guess I was being foolish. But never in my wildest dreams did I think the offense would explode for 5 hits & 3 earned runs today.

[Jim]

It was quite the explosion......but the sweep is huge!

I don't think there going to hit like they have in the past, this is they way there going to have to win, but I do think they will hit better, and despite how bad he looks now I think Howard will carry this team for a week or two in the final month like he always does.

[BloodStripes]

The sweep is massive, especially after the debacle against Houston. Their supposed to be pennant contenders and the Phils beat SD at their own game with top pitching and sound defense. With the timely hits, a bit of speed and power the Phils were simply too good. If PHI v SD was supposed to be a prelude to the playoffs then the Phils just made a big statement. The Phils are right up there and know how to win a series at the business end of the season. Lookout LA.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

2 HRs by this team does seem to be an offensive eruption these days. I expected Hamels to be good on that field, in his home town. He's been good all year. Another shutout for the staff, though, is pretty impressive. I believe I read that's the 16th of the year for the team (and that hte Mets lead the league with 18). I'm not sure if that's accurate but, if it is - Year of the Pitcher, indeed.

[BloodStripes]

Spot on Hugh.

The Phillies threw their 16th shutout, tying San Diego for second in the majors behind the New York Mets with 18.

I hope Doc can throw another against Kuroda. Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are a combined 0 for 19 against Kuroda. Time to turn that around boys.

[Jim]

Kuroda has always given us trouble, but hopefully Doc will be on and we can win with 2 or 3 runs.....

[awh]

Bloodstripes, hopefully their lack of success against Kuroda means that their due.

I keep thinking of the story about the blind squirrel and the nut....

[awh]

Oops, should say "they're due".

[awh]

Everyone talks about his last 5-8 starts, but since July 1st, Cole Hamels has put up these numbers:

12 GS, 83.2 IP, 23 R & ER, 67 H, 6 HR, 18 BB, 88 K, 2.47 ERA, 1.016 WHIP

.220 .272 .338 against, .289 BAbip

In short, Cole Hamels has been pitching like a very good #1, not a #2 or 3.

[awh]

As good as Cole has been, Roy Halladay has been even better:

10 GS, 77 IP, 17 R, 16 ER, 60 H, 6 HR, 8 BB, 74 K, 1.87 ERA, .883 WHIP

.214 .244 .325 against, .270 BAbip

MOTO commentary:

If anyone is wondering how they Phillies, who have been rotating their regular position players on and off the DL all season, could still possibly be in contention, I submit to you that you need to look no further than the numbers I posted above.

Combined, Halladay and Hamels have pitched 160.2 innings to the tune of a 2.18 ERA.

Has any other team in MLB had two pitchers at the top of their rotation pitch that well since Juy 1st?

[Sophist]

awh, I bet the combined ERA of Doc, Hamels, Oswalt, and Blanton in their last 5 starts (20 starts all together) is below 2.50.

[awh]

Question for the board:

We have all made comments about our own "confidence level" about the Phillies being able to catch and pass the Braves.

That said, based on the above numbers for Roy and Cole, that the Phillies have added Roy Oswalt (2.18 ERA in 41.1 IP), and that Joe Blanton seems to have come around, what do you think is the confidence level of the Phillies' players that they can catch and pass the Braves?

[awh]

Sophist, I wouldn't take that bet.

[therev]

Kind of looking ahead here but I wouldn't try to resign werth next year. We will have one of the top rotations in the majors next season, so I don't think there is any reason to lock up werth to a long term deal. Let next season be about pitching/defense and save some money for the following season. Try to bring in some cheap guys from the minors to fill out the team and see what they can do while the rotation carries the team. D Brown, Mathieson, Bastardo etc... It's time for some young blood on this team.

[awh]

To answer my own question above, Braden and Cahill in Oaklenad have been awfully good since the All Star break, as have Wainwright and Carpenter.

No two have been quite as good as Hamels and Halladay since the beginning of July, especially when one considers the IP.

[Sophist]

Last 5 starts

Doc: 36 IP, 2.25 ERA (9 ER), 37 K, 5 BB
Hamels: 35 IP, 2.31 ERA (9 ER), 38 K, 4 BB
Oswalt: 35.1 IP, 1.53 ERA (6 ER), 31 K, 7 BB
Blanton: 32 IP, 2.81 ERA (10 ER), 26 K, 5 BB

138.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 8.6 K9, 1.4 BB9

Are you f'in kidding me?

[jason.tp]

sigh, here we go again:

Rod Barajas is 6-13 with 2 HR and 2 2B since joining the Dodgers.

Not looking forward to see this peice of garbage torch us all series long.

[Sophist]

Phils are 14-6 in those 20 games

Losses
- Hamels 1-0 loss to Mets
- Hamels 1-0 loss to Mets
- Hamels 5-2 loss to Giants (not a sharp start)
- Blanton's 3-2 loss to Stros
- Hamels 4-2 loss to Stros
- Doc's 3-2 loss to Stros

[Hugh Mulcahy]

I don't know what the numbers are but, if I'm considering the A's top 3, Cahill is real good, Braden has had some monster starts but, Gio Gonzalez has been their most consistently effective pitcher for the most of the season.

[awh]

Sophist, If the Phils go 14 - 6 in H2O and Blanton's next 20 starts, and KK can just manage to pitch well enough so the team goes 3 -2 in his next 5, that would be 17 - 8 in their next 25, and put them at 90 wins with 7 games to go.

It's a tall order for sure, and we shouldn't count chickens before they hatch, but hey, anything is possible (including them going 8-17).

[Sophist]

awh - considering they lost 2 of those 1-0 and 2 others 3-2, it's not a stretch to say they "should have" won 15-17 of those 20 and not 14. We'll see what happens.

[jason.tp]

Halladay vs. Kuroda has 1-0 written all over it. Phils struggle real bad against him.

Now if Broxton comes into close, thats another story.

[awh]

Sophist, in those 6 losses the Phillies pitchers' ERA was 2.43.

[Fatalotti]

The Phillies are 73-56, which puts them on pace to win ~92 games. But, since being 48-46, they've turned it around and have gone 25-10. That is a .714 clip. If they continue playing at that pace (and with their top 3, and the suddenly reliable back end of the bullpen, it's entirely possible), they are on pace to win ~96 games. That will be good enough for the WC and should be good enough for the division.

[Andy]

Hugh -

GIO!!!!! NO!!! Don't toss in Gio!!!!

What are you crazy??? For effin' Garcia?????

[Jack]

There's two ways of looking at those numbers, Sophist.

One is that the great pitching will continue and that if it does, it's highly unlikely we keep slumping, and thus, we're due to go on a hot streak where we win 16 of 20 or so.

The other way to look at it is that that sort of pitching is unsustainable over time, and so that it's not likely to continue and thus we missed a huge opportunity to make up a lot of ground given how good the pitching we got was.

Given the true talent levels of our Top 3, I'm inclined to say the pitching level is more real than not, and I'm confident the offense will start to hit more. However, I don't think those 4 will pitch at a 2.21 ERA-level (Blanton is not that good of a pitcher), and I'm not confident at all about what KK can contribute (and think that we need to try and skip his starts if possible down the stretch). Basically, the offense HAS to hit more, and I'm pretty confident they will.

[Joe Cowley]

'Heath Bell:
"We look up in the stands and there's a sea of red, it would be nice to see some blue or brown shirts. I guess Padres fans aren't ready to show up yet."

When does he think they plan to show up considering it's September in 2 days? Tampa Bay's Trop field was also a sea of empty seats last night for a tie-breaking game with Boston. The fans in most cities in the majors are beyond weak.

[jason.tp]

Andy: dont look now, but the fruit of the Bobby Abreu deal is listed as Tuesday's probable!

[Andy]

If I'm Torre, Broxton only sees action in this series as an emergency left-fielder.

[awh]

Fatalotti, here's another way to look at it:

While I know Charlie and the team don't care about the WC, the fact is right now the Phillies LEAD the WC standings. If the season ended today they'd be in the playoffs,

Si it's this simple for them: They control their own fate and don't have to rely on someone else losing to make the playoffs.

Win and they're in.

[Bubba]

SD Att: 30,528.
TB Att: 23,438.

JC- Those aren't sellouts to be sure, but that's not terrible attendamce at either stadium. We are so used to 100% + at CBP , we are surprised at less.

[Malcolm]

jason: Lest you forget game three of the 2009 NLCS?

Kuroda - 1.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 K

[awh]

The Phils will do well to win 2 of 3 from the Dodgers.

Kuroda gives the Phils fits, has been on a roll lately, and then there's Kershaw.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

I haven't read much of the thread, so i'm sure it's been said already: The amount of Phillies phans in the stands over the weekend was amazing. Watching the Sweeney HR clip and seeing the sea of red cheering gave me chills.

[awh]

yo, new thread.

[Fatalotti]

So, I'm interested in what to expect from our top 3 down the stretch, so I'm looking at career Sept/Oct (reg. season) numbers for our top 3. I started with Halladay.

His Sept ERA is lowest at 2.36. All his other numbers are markedly better in Sept. BA against is his lowest at .231, OBP is lowest at .272, SLG is lowest at .330, hits given up is lowest, HR is lowest by a considerable margin. Now, he only has 48 Sept/Oct starts, whereas he has 55 starts in May and June, 57 in April, 49 in July and 50 in August. OPS+ against is also lowest for him in September at 80. His K/BB ratio is 3.92, again his highest. He has 6 career Sept. shutouts, and 13 complete games. Again, his highest.

All in all, the numbers seem to point to the fact that the best of Halladay may be to come, and since he's having his best year thanks to his handy new changeup, we may be in for a real treat with Halladay for the end of the season.

For what it's worth, he's 23-11.

I'll check out Oswalt next.

[Lake Fred]

Bed Beard, I noticed that, too. We were able to see the Saturday game on Fox in New Orleans and I remarked to my family that on batter closeups for both righties and lefties, there seemed to be more Phillies caps visible than Padres caps. Isn't it a long drive from Philly to go see a game in San Diego?

[Joe Cowley]

The TB attendance is further proof that even a domed Marlins stadium will do squat to draw fans, initally maybe but definitely not worthy of a team with 2 rings.

[johnnyd]

Hate to be a pessimist here, but the lack of run production is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. I know this sounds like a "Sarge-ism" but, without runs you can't win games. Great pitching and small ball might get them into the playoffs, but will not be able to take them far.